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IER
2014 2 15
2
International Economic Review : 1169-1182
3
1.
(Mitchell 1999 Bickel et al. 1999 Odumu et al. 2002 Baker et al. 2003 Reynolds et al. 2004 Ohmura et al. 2005 )
(Mitchell 1999 Reynolds et al. 2003 Ohmura et al. 2005)
Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence
(FTND) 3
(Heatherton et al. 1991)
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2.
(Prelec and Lowenstein 1991 Raclin and Siegel 1994)
( Barsky et al. 1997)
Rachlin et al. 1991 Keren and Roelofsma 1995 Anderhub et al. 2001 Yi et al. 2006)
(Stated Preference Discrete Choice Model, SPDCM)
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3. (22 )
1( )
( )
5 200
7
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4.
7
5.
1 10 100%
2 15 20 25 30
40% 60% 80% 90% 1 1 5
8
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6. (ML)(CL
IID IIAIIA ML
ML β CL βCL Lni β n iVni J
ML β f(β)
j xni zni α µ0 εni IID
Linear-in-Parameter MLβ f(β|θ) β β
R f(β|θ) β βLni(β)
Pni SLL1 0 dni
θ
Lni (β) = exp(Vni (β)) / exp(Vnj (β))
j=1
J∑
Pni = exp(Vni (β)) / exp(Vnj (β))
j=1
J∑⎡⎣⎢
⎤⎦⎥ f (β)dβ∫
Uni = α ' xni + µ ' zni + εni
1
ˆ 1/ ( )R rni nirP R L β
== ∑
N
n=1 1ˆSLL= lnJ
ni njjd P
=∑ ∑
10
7.
j Vj( j j j)
exp(-TIME j) j j j
Vj
Vj( j j j) =exp(- TIME j) j j
11
RISK1- RISK
lnVj( j j j)=-TIME j+ln j+ RISK ln
j
TIME TIME 1- RISK [0,1]
1- RISK
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8.
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9.
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15
11.
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”Journal of Economic Psychology vol.30.4: 608-621.
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• 1.
(Barsky et al. 1997)2.
3.
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Addiction
Journal of Socio-Economics vol.40.3: 285-295.
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1. • 717 5 717
109 608 • /
608 287 • 5 /
608321
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• •
•
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Journal of Socio-Economics
Health Economics Review
23
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• β• δ
• • FTND
• •
u0 + exp(β ) t=1T exp(−δ t)ut∑
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20.42%
25
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