1

IER

2014 2 15

2

International Economic Review : 1169-1182

3

1.

(Mitchell 1999 Bickel et al. 1999 Odumu et al. 2002 Baker et al. 2003 Reynolds et al. 2004 Ohmura et al. 2005 )

(Mitchell 1999 Reynolds et al. 2003 Ohmura et al. 2005)

Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence

(FTND) 3

(Heatherton et al. 1991)

4

2.

(Prelec and Lowenstein 1991 Raclin and Siegel 1994)

( Barsky et al. 1997)

Rachlin et al. 1991 Keren and Roelofsma 1995 Anderhub et al. 2001 Yi et al. 2006)

(Stated Preference Discrete Choice Model, SPDCM)

5

3. (22 )

1( )

( )

5 200

7

6

4.

7

5.

1 10 100%

2 15 20 25 30

40% 60% 80% 90% 1 1 5

8

9

6. (ML)(CL

IID IIAIIA ML

ML β CL βCL Lni β n iVni J

ML β f(β)

j xni zni α µ0 εni IID

Linear-in-Parameter MLβ f(β|θ) β β

R f(β|θ) β βLni(β)

Pni SLL1 0 dni

θ

Lni (β) = exp(Vni (β)) / exp(Vnj (β))

j=1

J∑

Pni = exp(Vni (β)) / exp(Vnj (β))

j=1

J∑⎡⎣⎢

⎤⎦⎥ f (β)dβ∫

Uni = α ' xni + µ ' zni + εni

1

ˆ 1/ ( )R rni nirP R L β

== ∑

N

n=1 1ˆSLL= lnJ

ni njjd P

=∑ ∑

10

7.

j Vj( j j j)

exp(-TIME j) j j j

Vj

Vj( j j j) =exp(- TIME j) j j

11

RISK1- RISK

lnVj( j j j)=-TIME j+ln j+ RISK ln

j

TIME TIME 1- RISK [0,1]

1- RISK

12

8.

13

9.

14

10.

15

11.

16

”Journal of Economic Psychology vol.30.4: 608-621.

17

.

• 1. 

(Barsky et al. 1997)2. 

3. 

18

.

19

Addiction

Journal of Socio-Economics vol.40.3: 285-295.

20

1.  •  717 5 717

109 608 •  /

608 287 •  5 /

608321

21

• 

• 

• 

• 

• • 

• 

22

Journal of Socio-Economics

Health Economics Review

23

.

•  β•  δ

• •  FTND

• • 

u0 + exp(β ) t=1T exp(−δ t)ut∑

24

.

20.42%

25

.