KHỦNG HOẢNG TÀI CHÍNH 97 - 98

7/30/2019 KHNG HONG TI CHNH 97 - 98

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I HC QUC GIA TP H CH MINHKHOA KINH T - LUT

B MN KINH T I NGOI

-------o0o-------Mn hc: Ti chnh quc t

ti:

Din bin v nguyn nhn khng hong ti chnh1997 - 1998

GVHD: TS. L Tun LcNhm thc hin:1.Ng Th M Linh K0740203192.Bi Th Hi Nhn K0740203403.Trn Minh Ph K074020350

4.ng Th Thanh Thi K0740203645. Th Ngc Thnh K0740203676.Cao Th Minh Trang K074020373


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Khng hong ti chnh Chu 1997 1998 Din bin v nguyn nhn

Mc lc

M U . 2

I.Din bin cuc khng hong . 3

1. Tnh hnh ti Thi Lan .. 3

a. Nhng nm 80 ca th k XX .. 3

b. u nm 1997 .. 3

2. Din bin c th ti cc nc ... 7

2.1HongKong .. 7

2.2 Hn Quc 7

2.3 Malaysia . 8

2.4 Indonesia 8

3.Hu qu t cuc khng hong ti chnh n cc nn kinh t 9

II.Nguyn nhn cuc khng hong ..... 10

1. Nguyn nhn ch quan ... 10

1.1 Nn kinh t v m yu km a n s bng n tn dng v

ti khon vng lai thm ht 10

1.2 Ch t gi khng ph hp xu th 11

2. Nguyn nhn khch quan .. 12

2.1 S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoi . 12

2.2 Th trung thung mi ton cu gim st v

nhng thay i bt li ca kinh t th gii . 14

2.3 Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot .. 15

III/ Bi hc kinh nghim 16

KT LUN 19

TI LIU THAM KHO . 202


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KHNG HONG TI CHNH CHU 1997 1998

I/ DIN BIN CUC KHNG HONG:

1.Tnh hnh ti Thi Lan:

a.Nhng nm 80 ca th k XX:

Giai on ny Thi Lan ni ln nh mt nn kinh t nng ng nht Chu . T 1985n 1995, tc tng trng kinh t ca Thi Lan t 8,5% hng nm, mc lm phttrung bnh hng nm 5% (so snh trong cng thi k kinh t M tng trng 1,3% v lmpht 3,2%). Tng trng kinh t rt nng do s bng n u t vo kinh doanh nhxng, bt ng sn, c s h tng du lch.

Nhu cu v bt ng sn tng rt nhanh ti Bangkok, vn phng lm vic v cc ta

nh chc tri mc ln khp ni trn thnh ph. Cc t chc ti chnh tip tc cho cccng ty kinh doanh bt ng sn vay vn v gi bt ng sn lin tc tng.

Cui nm 1996, bo co Trin vng Kinh t Th gii ca IMF cnh bo nn kinht Thi Lan tng trng qu nng v bong bng kinh t c th khng gi c lu. Cngtrong thi gian ny, th trng chng khon Thi Lan bt u c s iu chnh, c mcvn ha th trng vn ln ch s th trng chng khon u gim i.

b.u nm 1997:

- S bng n v xy dng nh v vn phng kinh doanh ln ti nhim khi lng cung vt qu cu. c tnh 365.000 cn h b trng Bankok vocui nm 1996, cng vi 100.000 cn h khc s c a vo s dng nm 1997 lm cho cung vt xa cu trn th trng bt ng sn

- Trong thi gian , bng n u t ca Thi Lan vo c s h tng, khucng nghip, khu thng mi..lm tng lng hng nhp khu vi t l cao chatng thy. xy dng Thi Lan phi nhp cc thit b c tin,vt liu t M,Chu u, Nht. Kt qu ti khon vng lai trong cn cn thanh ton thm ht mnhtrong sut gia nhng nm 90. Trong giai on ny xut khu tng nhng nhpkhu cng tng nhanh hn . Trong nm 1995 thm ht cn cn thanh ton l 8,1% so

vi GDP.

- Lc ny, chnh ph quyt nh thc hin vic tng li sut. Cng trongthi gian cc cng ty cho vay ti chnh cng ln lt tuyn b ph sn v khngc kh nng tr n nc ngoi, n xu trn th trng bt ng sn v th ngy cngtng ln v tng hn 30 t trong thi gian ny.

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Trn y l nhng chuyn bin t nn kinh t Thi Lan, iu tng t cng xyra vi cc nn kinh t khc nh Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hn Quc, HongKong

Nh vy vn ca nn kinh t Thi Lan lc ny l:

- Cn cn thanh ton thm ht dn n vic cc nh u t d kin rngtnh trng ph gi ng ni t s din ra. Tc l, t gi c nh s khng c gina (ng Baht s gim gi mnh) v vy nhiu cng ty mua Dollar vo tr nkhi o hn cn cc nh u c th vay Baht mua USD nhm thu li li nhun.iu ny khin cho ng Baht b tn cng u c quy m ln vo ngy 14/05/1997.

- S tng li sut ca ngn hng lm nhiu cng ty ti chnh b sp

Trc nhng sc p trn, Chnh ph Thi Lan tuyn b ko ph gi ng ni t, vban u dng d tr ngoi t bo v t gi nhng ch c th duy tr trong vng 1

thng.

Sau ng Baht c th ni vo ngy 02/07/1997v ngay lp tc mt gi 10%, rigi tr tip tc gim xung sau (ln ti hn 50%). Vo u nm 1997, t gi gia ngBaht v USD l 25 Baht i 1 USD, nhng n thng 1 nm 1998, t gi ny gimxung ti mc 56 Baht mi i c 1 USD.

Ch s th trng chng khon Thi Lan tt t mc 1.280 cui nm 1995 xungcn 372 cui nm 1997. ng thi, mc vn ha th trng vn gim t 141,5 t USDxung cn 23,5 t USD.

Finance One, cng ty ti chnh ln nht ca Thi Lan b ph sn.

Cuc khng hong ti chnh xy ra khin kinh t Thi lan suy sp, nguy c lan ra ccnc khc cng khu vc l rt cao. IMF tuyn b s cung cp mt gi cu tr tr gi 16t dollar M cho Thi Lan vo ngy 11/8. n ngy 20/8, IMF thng qua mt gi cu trna tr gi 3,9 t dollar.

Tuy nhin, khng hong vn nhanh chng lan ra Hn Quc, Malaysia v Indonesia.ng Ringgit (Malaysia) v Rupiah (Indonesia) u chu sc p v sau cng u b ph

gi. ng won Hn Quc, do c ch t gi linh hot, nn mt gi t nm 1996.

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T gi hi oi danh ngha chnh thc (ni t/USD)

Hn Quc (Won) Thi Lan (Baht) Indonesia (Rupiah)

Malaysia (Ringgit) Philippines (Peso) Singapore (S-dollar)

Ngun: NHTG, World Development Indicators, 2002.

Ch s t gi hi oi vi USD

- Dng vn ngn hn chy vo cc nc ng , gi t chy ra. Ccc nh u t u mun chuyn vn ra. Ngn hng i li vn cho vay, t chi on v ngng cho vay mi.

- Cc nh u t chng khon th bn chng khon, i ra ngoi t vchuyn ra nc ngoi. Ring trong nm 1997, hn 20 t USD rng c a ra khi

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5 nc ng chu khng hong, trong khi trong nm 1996 vn cn nhn c gn66 t USD.

vt: T USD 1996 1997 1998 1999

Vn t nhn rng 65.8 -20.4 -25.6 -24.6 u t trc tip rng 8.4 10.3 8.6 10.2u t chng khon rng 20.3 12.9 -6 6.3Vay thng mi v u t khc 37.1 -43.6 -28.2 -41.1

Vin tr chnh thc rng -0.4 17.9 19.7 -4.7

Dng vn quc t chy ra khi ng

Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 5/1998 v 3/2000.

- Th trng bt ng sn ti Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia ...sp .

Hnh 8: Ch s gi cao c vnphng ti Thi Lan vIndonesia

Ngun: Marcus Miller vPongsak Luangaram (1998)

- Ch s chng khon tt gim mnh hu ht cc nc ng .

Ch s gi chng khon

Ngun: IMF, WorldEconomic Outllook,12/1997.

2.Din bin c th ti cc nc:

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2.1 HongKong:

Thng 10 nm 1997, Dollar Hong Kong b tn cng u c. ng tin ny vn cneo vo Dollar M vi t gi 7,8 HKD/USD. Tuy nhin, t l lm pht Hong Kong licao hn M, v vy y l c s cho gii u c tn cng

- Nh c d tr ngoi t hng hu ln ti 80 t USD vo thi im tng ng 700% lng cung tin M1 hay 45% lng cung tin M3, nn C quanTin t Hong Kong dm chi hn 1 t USD bo v ng tin ca mnh. Cc thtrng chng khon ngy cng tr nn d v.

- T ngy 20 thng 10 n 23 thng 10, Ch s Hang Seng gim 23%.Ngy 15 thng 8 nm 1998, Hong Kong nng li sut cho vay qua m t 8% lnthnh 23% v ngay lp tc nng vt ln 500%.

- ng thi, C quan Tin t Hong Kong bt u mua vo cc loi c

phiu thnh phn ca Ch s Hang Seng gim p lc gim gi c phiu. C quanny v ng Donald Tsang, lc l B trng Ti chnh v sau ny lm Trngc khu hnh chnh Hong Kong, cng khai tuyn chin vi gii u c.

- Chnh quyn mua vo khong 120 t Dollar Hong Kong (tng ng15 t Dollar M) cc loi chng khon. Sau ny, vo nm 2001, chnh quyn bnra s chng khong ny v thu li khong 30 t Dollar Hong Kong (khong 4 tDollar M).

- Cuc khng hong ny ngng li vo thng 9 nm 1998 ch yu docc nh u c b thit hi bi chnh sch iu tit dng vn nc ngoi ca chnh

ph HongKong v bi s sp ca cc hot ng u c nhm vo Dollar HongKong v th trng chng khon ca nc trng tri phiu v tin t Nga.

- T gi neo gia Dollar Hong Kong v Dollar M vn c bo ton mc 7,8 : 1.

2.2 Hn Quc:

Vo thi im khng hong bng pht Thi Lan, Hn Quc c mt gnh nng nnc ngoi khng l. Cc cng ty, tp on ln n ngn hng trong nc, cn ngn hngtrong nc li n ngn hng nc ngoi. Mt vi v v n xy ra. Khi th trng chu

b khng hong, thng 11 cc nh u t bt u bn ra chng khon ca Hn Quc quy m ln.

- Ngy 28 thng 11 nm 1997, t chc nh gi tn dng Moody h thhng ca Hn Quc t A1 xung A3, sau vo ngy 11 thng 12 li h tip xungB2. iu ny gp phn lm cho gi chng khon ca Hn Quc thm gim gi.

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- Ring trong ngy 7 thng 11, th trng chng khon Seoul tt 4%. Ngy24 thng 11 li tt 7,2% do tm l lo s IMF s i Hn Quc phi p dng ccchnh sch tht chc tin t.

Trong khi , ng Won gim gi xung cn khong 1700 KRW/USD t mc 1000KRW/USD.

2.3 Malaysia:

Ngay sau khi Thi Lan th ni ng Baht (ngy 2 thng 7 nm 1997), ng Ringgitca Malaysia v th trng chng khon Kuala Lumpur lp tc b sc p gim gi mnh.Ringgit gim t mc 3,75 Ringgit/Dollar M xung cn 4,20 Ringgit/Dollar. Phn lnsc p gim gi i vi Ringgit l t vic bun bn ng tin ny trn th trng tin nc ngoi. Nhng ngi tham gia th trng tin duy tr ti khon bng ng Ringgit trng thi bn ra nhiu hn mua vo vi d tnh v s gim gi ca ng Ringgit trong

tng lai.Kt qu l li sut trong nc ca Malaysia gim xung khuyn khch dng vn chy

ra nc ngoi. Lng vn chy ra t ti mc 24,6 t Ringgit vo qu hai v qu ba nm1997.

2.4 Indonesia:

- Thng 7, khi Thi Lan th ni ng Baht, c quan hu trch tin t caIndonesia ni rng bin dao ng ca t gi hi oi gia Rupiah v DollarM t 8% ln 12%.

- Thng 8, ng Rupiah b gii u c tn cng v n ngy 14 th ch t gi hi oi th ni c qun l c thay th bng ch th ni hon ton.ng Rupiah lin tc mt gi.

- IMF thu xp mt gi vin tr ti chnh khn cp cho Indonesia ln ti23 t Dollar, nhng Rupiah tip tc mt gi do ng Rupiah b bn ra t vlng cu Dollar M Indonesia tng vt. Thng 9, c gi Rupiah ln ch s thtrng chng khon u gim xung mc thp lch s.

Rupiah mt gi lm suy yu bng cn i ti sn ca cc cng ty Indonesia, c bit l

lm cho mn n ngn hng nc ngoi ca cc cng ty tng ln. Trc tnh hnh ,nhiu cng ty y mnh mua Dollar vo (c ngha l bn Rupiah ra) khin cho ni tthm mt gi v t l lm pht tng vt.

Lm pht tng tc cng vi chnh sch ti chnh tht cht theo yu cu ca IMF khinchnh ph phi b tr gi lng thc v xng khin gi hai mt hng ny tng ln.

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Tnh trng bo ng tranh ginh mua hng bng pht. Ring Jakarta c ti 500ngi b cht do bo ng.

Theo thng k, trc khng hong, t gi hi oi gia Rupiah v Dollar vo khong2000 : 1. Nhng trong thi k khng hong, t gi gim xung mc 18.000 : 1.

Do thay i t gi hi oi v do nhiu nhn t khc, GDP theo Dollar M caIndonesia gim i.

3.Hu qu t cuc khng hong ti chnh n cc nn kinh t:

Hng lot cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh thua l nng n v lm votnh trng ph sn, gii th, sp nhp trong khong thi gian t 1/4/1997 n31/3/1998.

Tng sNH

S NH bnh ch

H

S NH bCP gim

st

S NHb spnhp

S NHbn

cho ctyNN

% s NHc vn

Thi Lan 108 56 4 59%Malaysia 60 41 68%Indonesia 228 16 56 11 36%Hn Quc 56 16 32%

Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h thng ti chnh

Kinh t suy thoi, tc tng trng gim st thm ch b m (-) trmtrng.

T l tht nghip tng vt, ch ring Thi Lan, sau khng hong khin 2triu ngi mt vic lm, t l tht nghip Philippines t 9,5% (nm 96) tng ln10,4% (nm 97), ti Hn Quc t 2,5 (nm 97) tng vt ln 8,6% (thng 7/98).

Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi st gim mnh, cho n nm 2002 vn chath hi phc bng mc ca nm 1996.

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SO SNH MC TNBQ/NGI NM 1996 V NM 2002

S rt vn t ca cc nh u t, ngi cho vay trong v ngoi nckhin ngun vn tn dng cn kit, th trng chng khon trm lng xy ra huht cc nc ng .

Khng hong tin t dn n khng hong x hi v khng hongchnh tr. iu ny dn n vic ng Suharto buc phi t chc tng thngIndonesia vo gia nm 1998.

III/ NGUYN NHN CUC KHNG HONG:

Nh vy nhn vo din bin trn ta c th thy c nguyn nhn ca cuc khnghong xut pht t cc yu t ch quan v khch quan:

1.Nguyn nhn ch quan:

1.1 Nn kinh t v m yu km a n s bng n tn dng, ti khon vng lai thmht:

Chnh sch tin t ni lng v vic t do ha ti chnh M, chu u v Nht Bncui thp nin 1980 khin cho tnh thanh khon ton cu tr nn cao qu mc. Ccnh u t cc trung tm tin t ni trn ca th gii tm cch thay i danh mc ti snca mnh bng cch chuyn vn u t ra nc ngoi. Qu trnh ton cu ha cc thtrng ti chnh din ra vi tc chng mt. Ch ring giai on t 1990-1997 , vnt nhn a vo cc nc ang pht trin tng hn 5 ln, t 42 triu USD nm 1990

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ti 256 triu USD nm 1997. Trong khi thng mi th gii ch tng gn 5%/nm thdng vn t nhn tng gn 30%/nm. Nhng hnh thc huy ng vn nhanh chng nhtnh vay n t cc ngn hng thng mi v u t gin tip chnh l nhng yu t tonn tc tng trng cao trn v lung vn.

Khu vc ng vi s thnh cng trong nhng nm 70, 80 ca th k ny tr thnha im l tng cng vi s kt hp cc yu t nh mc tng trng nhanh, t l nthp v qun l tt kinh t v m thu ht vn u t nc ngoi ta nh mt thanhnam chm. Tuy nhin, tng trng nhanh, th ha v cng nghip ha cng khi lngvn c vo lm xut hin nhiu vn mi v kh khn i vi s pht trin cacc nc ny. Tnh trng tng trng nhanh trong iu kin thiu cc th trng ti chnhv th trng vn mnh v c s tham gia rng ri ca chnh ph, lm cho cc khu vcti chnh v cc tp on thng phi u t di hn bng ngun vn vay n ngn hn.iu ny a n s tch t cc khon n ngn hn i vi nc ngoi phi tr. Trc

tnh hnh ny chnh ph cc nc ny a ra chnh sch tht cht tin t nhm loi bnh hng ca dng vn vo v m rng tn dng lm tng li sut trong nc cngnh to ra s chnh lch v li sut gia trong nc v ngoi nc v v tnh khuynkhch cc nh u t vay vn t nc ngoi u t vo trong nc dn n s bng ntn dng trong nc gp phn lm thm ht ti khon vng lai tng ln.

Thm vo chng ta cn xem xt v thy r rng cc quy ch cn thit qun l sha nhp ti chnh ton cu khng bt kp vi lung vn vo. Nh bit khi dngvn i vo th vai tr ca trung gian ti chnh quc t ngy cng quan trng. u t vo

lnh vc c t sut hon vn cao i vi nhng ngi vay c tn nhim cao th dngvn u t ny s c tim nng thc y tng trng kinh t ng . Thc t li emn iu ngc li. Cc doanh nghip tip nhn vn nc ngoi thng qua h thng ngnhng thng mi. Cc ngn hng khng a ra nhng quy nh r rng v nghim khccho cc doanh nghip vay vn nc ngoi. Hu ht lung vn u t nc ngoi l ngnhn nhng cc doanh nghip li dng vo cc d n di hn t sut sinh li thp. ri rocao. Thm vo l tm l li vo s bo tr ngm ca chnh ph (mc d chnh phkhng tuyn b) nn cc ngn hng vn tip tc cho vay vn v tin rng bo him ri rol khng cn thit trong thi k ny.

1.2 Ch t gi khng ph hp xu th:

Nu yu km v m l nhng nguyn nhn su xa dn n khng hong th cc chnhsch neo gi gia cc ng tin khu vc vi ng USD, to nn mt h thng t gikhin cng l nguyn nhn ch yu dn ti vic ph gi hng lot cc ng tin khuvc. Mc d khi pht t vic th ni ng baht Thi Lan dn n hiu ng lan ta sang

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cc ng Peso, Ringgit v Rupiah, nhng trong thc t trong chng mc no ,cc ngni t ny b gim gi trc xu hng ngy cng tng ca ng USD.

Xt v phng din l thuyt, ch t gi hi oi c nh theo h thng BrettonWoods, c ngha tch cc trong vic n nh ha ng tin ni t v h tr cho qu

trnh tng trng kinh t. Tuy nhin, nu lm dng qu nhiu vo t gi c nh trongiu kin ng ni t trn thc t b gim gi so vi ng tin mnh khc cng nh ccu kinh t mt cn i ln dn n nguy c khng hong. ng l ngay t nm 1996,khi nhng triu chng thm ht ti khon vng lai xut hin, Thi Lan v cc nc ngNam khc phi thc hin chnh sch th ni ng ni t, tr li gi ch thc ca n,kt hp vi chnh sch tht cht ti chnh, chc chn nguy c khng hong b dp tp.Thay v chnh chnh sch km gi mt cch gi to ng ni t thu ht vn nc ngoing Nam tng trng nhanh trong thp nin 1980 v na u thp nin 1990 tora sc p tng gi ni t. bo v t gi c nh, cc ngn hng trung ng ng Nam

thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng. Kt qu l cung tin tng gy ra sc p lmpht nhm b p l hng ca ti khon vng lai v kim ch lm pht.

Thi Lan v mt s nc ng Nam c gng thc hin ci m cc nh kinh tgi l B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi. H va c nh gi tr ng tin ca mnhvo Dollar M, va cho php t do lu chuyn vn (t do ha ti khon vn). Kinh tpht. Chnh sch v hiu ha (sterilization policy) c p dng chng lm pht vhnh chung y mnh cc dng vn chy vo nn kinh t.

Vo gia thp nin 1990, Hn Quc c nn tng kinh t v m tng i tt ngoi tr

vic ng Won Hn Quc khng ngng ln gi vi Dollar M trong thi k t sau nm1987. iu ny lm cho ti khon vng lai ca Hn Quc suy yu v gi hng xut khuca Hn Quc trn th trng hng ha quc t tng. Trong hon cnh , Hn Quc litheo ui mt ch t gi hi oi neo lng lo v chnh sch t do ha ti khon vn.V th, thm ht ti khon vng lai c b p li bng vic cc ngn hng ca ncny i vay nc ngoi m phn ln l vay n ngn hn v n khng t bo him ri ro.

2.Nguyn nhn khch quan:

2.1 S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoi:

T nm 1994 n 1997, lng vn t nhn chy vo cc nuc ang pht trin tng 5ln t 42 t USD ln 256 t USD. ng l ni thu ht mt lung ln dng vn ny,chim khang 60% trong na u thp nin 1990.( theo NHTG 1998).

Bng s liu: Vn t nhn nuc ngoi u t vo nm nuc ng (Hn Quc, Thilan, Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines) t 1991 - 1996, vt: t USD

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1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Vn t nhn rng 24.8 29.0 31.8 36.1 74.2 65.8u t trc tip rng 6.2 7.3 7.6 8.8 7.5 8.4u t chng khon rng 3.2 6.4 17.2 9.9 17.4 20.3Vay thng mi v u t khc 15.4 15.3 7.0 17.4 49.2 37.1

Vin tr chnh thc rng 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 -0.4

Sut sinh li thp cc nn kinh t pht trin v s thn k trong tng trung kinh tca ng l nhng ng lc thc y dng vn chy t Hoa K, Nht Bn v EU ticc nuc ng .

Vo gia thp nin 90, chnh sch tin t m rng Hoa K, ni lng kim sot tichnh Chu u v tnh trng bong bng ng yn Nht lm cho tnh thanh khonton cu tr nn cao qu mc. Chnh lch li sut gia cc nn kinh t ng v cctrung tm tin t quc t lun mc dung.

Bn cnh , nhng xc tin u t ca chnh ph v nhng bo h ngm ca chnhph cho cc th ch ti chnh cng gp phn lm cc cng ty chu bt chp mohim i vay ngn hng trong khi cc ngn hng bt chp mo him i vay ncngoi m phn ln l vay n ngn hn v n khng t bo him ri ro.

C th, chnh sch ca Hn Quc l hn ch u t nuc ngoi di hn dui dn FDIhay u t chng khon, trong khi ch cho php cc ngn hng vay ngn hn nuc ngoi.T gi hi oi c nh m nhiu chnh ph ng duy tr cng l yu t khuyn khchdng vn nuc ngoi do ri ro t gi uc loi b.

Dng vn nuc ngoi ta nn s bng n tn dng trong khu vc. Trong thp nin1990,tn dng ngn hng cp cho khu vc t nhn tng ln nhanh chng. T cui nm1996, tng gi tr n ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn trn GDP ln ti 140% Hn Qucv Thi Lan. Mc cung tin M2 Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Phillippines, Malaysia vIndonesia tng gn 20%/nm trong nm 96-97.

Bng s liu:N ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn so vi GDP (%)

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Korea 103.1 110.7 121.3 128.8 133.5 140.9

Thailand 88.6 98.4 110.8

128.1

142.0

141.9

Ngun: Radelet v Sachs (1998).

Mt im ng lu na l hu ht cc khong vay nc ngoi ngn hn c u tdi hn. N ngn hn nuc ngoi lun lun ln hn so vi d tr ngoi t ca cc nuc

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ng vo thi im truc khi xy ra khng hong, c ngha l trong ngn hn nn kinht s khng c kh nng chi tr. Ch c 2 nuc Malaysia v Phillipines trong s 5 nuc bkhng hong c n ngn hn thp hn d tr ngoi t.

Bng s liu: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 1997

N ngn hn nc ngoi D tr ngoi t T l n ngn hnHn Quc 70.18 34.07 2.06Thi Lan 45.57 31.36 1.45Indonesia 34.66 20.34 1.7Malaysia 16.27 26.59 0.61Philippines 8.29 9.78 0.85

Ngun: ADB,Asian Development Outlook., 1999

2.2 Th trung thung mi ton cu gim st v nhng thay i bt li ca kinh t thgii:

T nm 1995 tr li y, tc tng trng kinh t ca cc nc cng nghip phttrin gim st dn n lng cu cng suy gim. c bit, nhng nc ny l bn hngch yu, l i tc kch thch qu trnh tng trng nng hng v xut khu ca ccnc ng Nam .

Nm 1996, tc tng trung kinh t ca cc nuc ng bt u chng li, tng

trung trong xut khu ca ng Nam gim xung mt cch nhanh chng lm cho tikhan vng lai b suy yu, nguyn nhn bao gm:

Tng trung thung mi tan cu suy gim. ng yn mt gi. T gi hi oi thc hiu dng ca cc nuc ng ln gi. Lung cu v gi ca cc mt hng xut khu suy gim.

C th:Nhng sn phm xut khu ch lc ca khu vc (in t, si, dt) ang ngtrc nguy c bo ha ca th trng th gii. Nm 1996, th trng bn dn quc t suythoi mnh, gi vi mch gim hn 80%. Cc mt hng in t dn dng ca Nht, cc

nc NICs ng Nam gim lng bn hn 40% trn th trng th gii.

Nht Bn l mt trong nhng th trung xut khu ln nht ca Chu b tr tr tu thp nin 1990.Nhn dn t c nh gi thp so vi Dollar M t nm 1994 cngnhiu nhn t khc lm cho hng xut khu ca Trung Quc r hn so vi hng xut khucng loi ca ng Nam . Trong khi , nn kinh t ca M ang c khi phc li

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http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%C3%A2n_d%C3%A2n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%C3%A2n_d%C3%A2n_t%E1%BB%87


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sau tnh trng suy thoi u nhng nm 1990, Cc D tr Lin bang Hoa K di s lnho ca Alan Greenspan bt u nng li sut ca M ln ngn chn lm pht. Vicny lm cho M tr thnh mt th trng hp dn u t hn so vi cc nc ng ,v do hp dn nhng lung vn u t ngn hn thng qua li sut ngn hn cao vlm tng gi ng La M. V do ng tin ca cc nc ng Nam c neo vo

Dollar M, nn xut khu ca cc nc ny tr nn km cnh tranh dn n ti khonvng lai ca h b suy yu.

Bng s liu: thm ht ti khon vng lai (%GDP)

1994 1995 1996 Hn Quc -0.96 -1.74 -4.42Thi Lan -5.59 -8.05 -8.05Malaysia -6.07 -9.73 -4.42Indonesia -1.58 -3.18 -3.37

Philippines -4.60 -2.67 -3.77Ngun: NHTG; ch s pht trin th gii nm 2002

2.3 Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot:

Nguyn nhn trc tip ca khng hong ti chnh ng nm 1997 l nhng cuctn cng u c v vic rt vn ng lot khi cc nc chu . Khi pht hin nhng duhiu suy thoi ca h thng ngn hng- ti chnh khu vc, nhiu nh u c nc ngoi tng cng hot ng u c tin t.

Theo ngun tin nc ngoi th rt nhiu nh u c trong tng s 2300 qu tn dngt nhn M, vi ti sn trn 100 t USD nhy vo th trng khu vc ny trong 2thng 7-8/1997. Ngoi cc qu do Soros kim sot cn c cc qu tn dng ln nhTiger, Orbis, Pumar, Panther v Jaguar. H mua ng Baht sau Peso, Ringgit, Rupiahk c SGD c tnh 10-15 t USD u c, c d tr ngoi hi nh nc cn kit cnglm cho tn cng u c thm ko di.

Cui cng th th trng bt ng sn ca Thi Lan v. Mt s th ch ti chnh bph sn. Ngi ta khng cn tin rng chnh ph kh nng gi ni t gi hi oi cnh. Khi pht hin thy nhng im yu cht ngi trong nn kinh t ca cc nc chu, mt s th ch u c v m tin hnh tn cng tin t chu . Cc nh u t ncngoi ng lot rt vn ra.

ng ri vo tnh trng cc nh u t khng cn tin rng d tr ngoi t trn ngn hn. C cc nh u t nc ngoi ln trong nuc u mun chuyn vn ra.Ngnhng i li vn cho vay, t chi o n v ngng cho vay mi; cn cc nh u tchng khon th bn chng khon, i ra ngoi t v chuyn ra ngoi. Ring trong nm

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1997, hn 20 t USD rng uc a ra khi 5 nuc ng b khng hong, trong khitrong nm 1996 vn cn nhn uc gn 66 t USD.

IV/ BI HC KINH NGHIM CHO VIT NAM T CUC KHNG HONGTI CHNH TIN T CHU :

Trong cuc khng hong ti chnh - tin t khu vc (bt u t Thi Lan, lan sangIndonesia, Hn Quc), Vit Nam khng b cun ht vo vng xoy l do m cacha rng v s ch ng ng ph "vt trc ngn chn". Nhng tc ng ca cuckhng hong ny cng khng nh v mt s mt. Lng vn u t trc tip nc ngoing k gim mnh (nu nm 1996 t 10.164 triu USD, th nm 1997 cn 5.591 triuUSD, nm 1998 cn 5.100 triu USD, nm 1999 cn 2.565 triu USD); lng vn thchin nm 1998 - 1999 cng b gim nhng t hn. Tc tng kim ngch xut khu, nhpkhu b gim mnh. Tc tng gi GDP cng b st gim: nm 1997 cn tng 8,15%,

n nm 1998 GDP ch cn tng 5,76%, n nm 1999 ch cn tng 4,77%. Trong thigian tng ng, tng trng cng nghip - xy dng v dch v cng b gim (cngnghip - xy dng t 12,62% xung 8,33% v 7,68%; dch v t 7,14% xung 5,08% v2,25%). Tc tng gi tiu dng cng cao ln (nm 1997 l 3,6%, th nm 1998 cngvt ln 9,2%). Lng khch quc t cng b st gim, lng kiu hi nm 1997 cngthp hn 1996.

Mt s bi hc cn lu cho Vit Nam:

Thc cht cuc khng hong tin t Chu l khng hong n nc ngoi,

c bit l vn vay t nhn v ngn hn, dn ti cu v USD tng cao, vtqu cung v ng ni t mt gi nhanh chnh dn n mt kh nng tr n. Vvy, bi hc u tin l Vit Nam phi c chin lc, qui hoch v bin php qun l v s dng vn vay nc ngoi( ODA, vn vay ngn hn v dihn) mt cch hiu qu nht, cng m bo hon tr vn vay ng thi hn.Vit Nam cn c khung lut php nghim minh v h thng qun l ca Nhnc cht ch nhm kim sot nhng khon vay nc ngoi ngy cng giatng. Chnh sch vay vn nc ngoi cn khuyn khch hng vo vay vn dihn, hn ch v qun l cht ch vn ngn hn; cn phi thn trng vI nhng

lung chu chuyn vn ngn hn t.

Trong chin lc pht trin kinh t cng nh iu hnh v m, cn duy tr mtth cn bng tng i gia cc mc tiu kinh t v m nh: lm pht, tngttrng , t gi hi oi, li sut, ngn sch, cn cn thng mI v cn cnthanh ton. Cc chnh sch kinh t v m cn c iu hnh mt cch linhhot, ng b v phi hp cht ch v b sung cho nhau.

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La chn mt cch tp trung v ph hp vI cc mc tiu u tin trong qutrnh pht trin (la chn vng, ngnh, sn phm, th trng, qui m cc d nv nhp tng trng). Nh nc phi c nh hng u t ca ton x hitheo mt c cu hp l.

Tip tc i mi v m ca nn kinh t, xy dng nn kinh t th trng hinI, quc t ho nn kinh t v pht huy cao ni lc tng trng nhanhv ph trin bn vng, i ph tt vi cc c sc t bn ngoi.

S thm ht ca cn cn vng lai l mt vn cn c quan tm thngxuyn v c bin php iu chnh thch hp.Kinh nghim ca cc nc:Malaysia, Indonesia cho thy, mc d t l thm ht cn cn vng lai so viGDP thp hn ca Thi Lan; mc d c d tr ngoi t tng i ln, songcng khng ngn cn c phn ng dy chuyn ca khng hong ti chnh

Thi Lan. S pht trin ca kinh t th trng phi i lin vi xy dng mt h thng

ngn hang mnh, c kinh nghim trong vic iu chnh chnh sch tin ttrong nn knih t th trng.

Trong n lc thc y tng trng kinh t v ha nhp vi th trng ti chnh quct, vic m rng th trng vn ca mi nc l iu ht sc cn thit. Song, vic mrng cnh ca th trng vn khng c ngha l hon ton bung lng. Mi mt quc giaphi duy tr mt t l hp l:

o Quan h t l gia vn trong nc v vn vay nc ngoi.

o Quan h t l gia vn ngn hn, trung hn v di hn trong khi gi vn tnc ngoi. Nu t l vn ngn hn ln khng n nh v mong manh s lmt vn c tc ng rt nhy cm khi th trng tin t trong nc c dinbin xu. S rt vn ng lot v t s l yu t gy ri lon th trng vntrong nc.

o Quan h gia thi hn vay v i tng c u t. Nu thi hn vay ngn,

nhng li dc u t vo bt ng sn, mt khi th trng bt ng sn b tcth kh nng tr n s kh v n qu hn s ln, gy mt n nh trong hthng ti chnh.

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KT LUN

Khng hong ti chnh nm 1997 li nhiu tn tht nghim trng cho nn kinht cc nc chu v nhng bi hc kinh nghim qu bu cho nn kinh t th gii.Khng hong lm ngi ta nhn thc r hn s cn thit phi c mt h thng ti chnh -ngn hng vng mnh, minh bch. iu ny thi thc Qu Tin t Quc t v Ngn hngThanh ton Quc t i mi cc quy ch v ngn hng v cc t chc tn dng ni chung.Bn cnh , chnh ph nhiu nc ang pht trin c th nhn ra rng cc dng vn ut gin tip nc ngoi v vn vay ngn hng nc ngoi c th em li nhng tc ng

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c li ln bt li vi nn kinh t ca h. Do , nhiu chnh ph ban hnh nhng quych nhm iu tit cc dng vn ny. Thm vo ,nhng tha thun cp khu vcnhm pht trin mt h thng phng nga khng hong ti din c thc y chu, v d nh Sng kin Chiang Mai, Tin trnh nh gi v i thoi Kinh t ASEAN+3,Sng kin Th trng Tri phiu Chu , ...V mt hc thut, cc nh nghin cu kinh t

nhn thy s hn ch ca cc m hnh l lun v khng hong tin t trc y trongvic gii thch ngun gc v s ly lan ca khng hong ti chnh chu . c nhiu nlc nhm a ra mt m hnh mi v khng hong tin t, chng hn nh m hnhphng php tip cn bng cn i ti sn, l thuyt bong bng, l thuyt v ngun gckhng hong t chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t. Vit Nam trc khng hongcn rt ra c bi hc kinh nghim t thc tin v a ra nhng bin php phng ngacho nn kinh t vn cn non tr.

TI LIU THAM KHO

1.Nguyn Thin Nhn, Khng hong kinh t ti chnh Chu 1997 1999: Nguynnhn, hu qu v bi hc vi Vit Nam, NXB HQG TP HCM, 2002.

2.Triu Thnh Nam (dch), ng phc hng, NXB Vn Ha Thng Tin H Ni, 2007

3.http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh%E1%BB%A7ng_ho%E1%BA%A3ng_t%C3%A0i_ch%C3%ADnh_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%81_1997

4. http://www.saga.vn/view.aspx?id=3473

5. http://www.scribd.com/doc/16501724/FinancialKhng-hong-tai-chinh-ong-A-19971998

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6. http://kinhtehoc.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=419

7. http://dantri.com.vn/c36/s36-185815/chau-a-hoc-duoc-gi-tu-cuoc-khung-hoang-tai-chinh-1997.htm

8.http://ktdoingoai.com/diendan

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KHỦNG HOẢNG TÀI CHÍNH 97 - 98