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KTBST Monthly Investment Strategy
JUNE 2015
()
26-MAY-2015
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Market Highlight SET Index (25 ..) 1508.16 (28 .. 58) 2.6% +/-
.. IMF - .. 4.45% - 33.85 / 3.9% +/- KTB -
..
mode
(--) ()
. 10 ..
Q2
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Market Highlight
Q2
Q1/58 .. SET MAI 2.29 2.19% stock Q2/58 10-15% .. 2557 P/E 20.6
19 SET
17 .. FOMC 22 .. 2.0% (.. 0.2% YoY 1.8% YoY) (- 8.9% 2558)
. 10 .. . . (10 ..) 0.25% 1.50% 1.25% . - ()
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Market Highlight
Subprime ..-.. .. IMF 950 .. 1.56 ()
SET Index
Q1 GDP 2558 3.8% 3.5% 8.55 8.46 1.0% 2558 21.0% 19.8% SET Index
2558 1554 1537 1446-1627
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SET Index
.... SET Index ..
V Shape
....
New Low 1478.90
SET
.. (25 ..58) 1478.90-
1549.53=70.63
SET Index
SET
Price Pattern ( 1)
Pivot Points (1520)
( 2)
SET 1484-1550
SET
..-.. 3
4 1484 // 1490
SET Index ..
Day
1
SET
Day
2
SET
Week
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Stock Highlight
6 .. 58
CK - 2Q58 /
CPALL -
EPG -
LHBANK - 2Q58 ..
PTT - 2Q58
SITHAI - brand
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CK . .
(25/05/2558) 26.00
33.80
2Q58 /
2Q58 CK CKP 1,300
(Backlog) 1Q58 CK Backlog 86,921 CK 15% 2-3
2 200,000
1,300 23%yoy
Source: Setsmart
Source: Company Data, KTBST estimates
:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
5/26/14
6/16/14
7/8/14
7/30/14
8/22/14
9/12/14
10/3/14
10/27/14
11/17/14
12/9/14
1/5/15
1/26/15
2/16/15
3/10/15
3/31/15
4/27/15
5/21/15
SET CK
CK - Ended Dec 2556 2557 2558E 2559E
PER (x) 188.91 35.14 33.82 25.44
PBV (x) 2.55 2.40 2.30 2.18
Div.yield (%) 1.64 1.83 1.18 1.57
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CPALL .
(25/05/2558) 46.75
55.00
CPALL 1Q58 3,408 (+35.5% QoQ, +26% YoY) MAKRO ( 1Q57 1,346 )
2Q58 3,399 (-0.3% QoQ, +51% YoY) MAKRO ( 2Q57 2,398 )
CPALL CPALL 15,789 (+55.5% YoY)
CPALL MAKRO 10% MAKRO 340 ( 585 925 )
Source: Setsmart
:
CPALL Ended Dec 2556 2557 2558E 2559E
PER (x) 40.0 41.4 26.6 22.6
PBV (x) 14.6 13.6 10.7 8.9
Div. yield (%) 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 3.1%
Source: Company data, KTBST estimates
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
27-D
ec-1
311
-Jan
-14
26-J
an-1
410
-Feb
-14
25-F
eb-1
412
-Mar
-14
27-M
ar-1
411
-Apr
-14
26-A
pr-1
411
-May
-14
26-M
ay-1
410
-Jun
-14
25-J
un-1
410
-Jul
-14
25-J
ul-1
409
-Aug
-14
24-A
ug-1
408
-Sep
-14
23-S
ep-1
408
-Oct
-14
23-O
ct-1
407
-Nov
-14
22-N
ov-1
407
-Dec
-14
22-D
ec-1
406
-Jan
-15
21-J
an-1
505
-Feb
-15
20-F
eb-1
507
-Mar
-15
22-M
ar-1
506
-Apr
-15
21-A
pr-1
506
-May
-15
21-M
ay-1
5
SET
CPALL
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EPG .
(25/05/2558) 9.75
10.80
EPG ,
4Q58 (..-..2558)
EPG 2559 ( ..2559) 25-30% TJM ( ) 2558 120% YoY
EPG 2 1 1
Source: Setsmart
Source: Company Data, KTBST estimates
:
EPG - Ended Mar 2556 2557 2558E 2559E
PER (x) 26.4 32.5 39.0 17.6
PBV (x) 6.5 5.4 3.4 3.0
Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.7
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
24
-De
c-1
4
13
-Jan
-15
02
-Fe
b-1
5
22
-Fe
b-1
5
14
-Mar
-15
03
-Ap
r-1
5
23
-Ap
r-1
5
13
-May
-15
SET
EPG
-
LHBANK .
(25/05/2558) 1.70
1.95
2Q58 .. ..
2Q58 400 . +30%YoY (Corporate) 1Q58
(..) .. +2.5%MoM +18.0%YoY -2.9%MoM +9.0%YoY NIM
.. .. LHBANK .. 152 . +66%MoM +35%YoY 55% 52% NPL ratio 2.3%
LHBANK
2558 1,347 . +12%YoY
Source: Setsmart
Source: Company Data, KTBST estimates
:
LHBANK Ended Dec 2556 2557 2558E 2559E
PER (x) 24.20 18.68 17.21 14.22
PBV (x) 1.44 1.38 1.29 1.23
Div. yield (%) 1.96 0.22 2.91 3.49
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PTT . .
(25/05/2558) 361
410
2Q58
2Q58 1 2 PTT QoQ
PTT 1Q58 200,000 2Q58 BCP 10,000 PTT
4Q58 SPRC PTT SPRC
2558 72,252 29% YoY Source: Setsmart
Source: Company Data, KTBST estimates
:
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
5/26/14
6/16/14
7/8/14
7/30/14
8/22/14
9/12/14
10/3/14
10/27/14
11/17/14
12/9/14
1/5/15
1/26/15
2/16/15
3/10/15
3/31/15
4/27/15
5/21/15
SET PTT
PTT - Ended Dec 2556 2557 2558E 2559E
PER (x) 11.08 18.48 14.27 12.37
PBV (x) 1.25 1.19 1.14 1.09
Div.yield (%) 3.60 3.05 3.50 4.04
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SITHAI .
(25/05/2558) 2.50
3.20
brand
SITHAI 57 9.75 3.8% 58 14% Q1/58 113 +7% YoY
74%
SITHAI ( ) 14% SITHAI
609 +29.6% YoY 15% 2559
Source: Setsmart
Source: Set Smart , Bloomberg
:
SITHAI 2556 2557 2558E 2559E
PER (x) 9.45 12.27 11.12 9.64
PBV (x) 1.05 1.46 1.32 1.24
Div. yield (%) 6.71 4.17 5.12 5.77
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Research Team
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[email protected]
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()
02-648-1125
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()
02-648-1129
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()
02-648-1124
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() 02-648-1128 [email protected]
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02-648-1120 [email protected]
02-648-1127 [email protected]
,
02-648-1484
[email protected]
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Telephone Fax
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