Lake BalatonLake Balaton 　　 IntegratedIntegrated 　　 Vulnerability Vulnerability Assessment, Early Warning andAssessment, Early Warning and 　　 Adaptation Adaptation

StrategiesStrategies

a UNDP/GEF medium-sized project

Executing Agency: Lake Balaton Development Council

(Balaton Fejlesztési Tanács, Siófok)

Balaton Adaptation ProjectBalaton Adaptation Project

Balaton Adaptation ProjectBalaton Adaptation Project

Project partners:

United Nations Environmental Program Global Resource Information Database – Geneva, Switzerland (UNEP-GRID)

Implementing Agency: Lake Balaton Development Coordination Agency

(Balatoni Integrációs és Fejlesztési Ügynökség Kht.)

International Institute for Sustainable Development - Winnipeg, Canada

Indicators for Lake Balaton

Gábor Molnár*, Károly Kutics*,

László Pintér** and Anthony Lehman****Lake Balaton Development Coordination Agency

**International Institute for Sustainable Development

***UNEP-GRID Geneva

Contents

Introduction to the Lake Balaton regionProject preliminariesObjectives, outcomesIndicatorsAdaptationPolicy frameworks

Introduction of Lake Balaton Region and Lake Balaton Development

Coordination Agency

Location and features of Lake Balaton

• naturally shallow lake

• average depth: 3.3 m

• size of the lake: 594 km2

• catchment area: 5775 km2

Lake Balaton Recreational Area

• 164 municipalities

• 255,000 permanent population

• 171,500 houses and flats

Tourism is the flagship of economy

Related income: 1.5 billion euro/year

1/3 of the national tourism income

(~ 3% of GDP)

Lake BalatonDevelopment Coordination Agency

• Established on January 01, 2000• 100% owned by the Lake Balaton Development Council (LBDC)• Non-profit, public interest company – NPO and/or public body• 3 officies (Siófok HQ, Keszthely, Balatonfüred)• 27 permanent staff• 3 divisions:

– planning and programming– socio-economic research,– grant-scheme management

• Funding:– 15% founder,– 65% program and project management

(25% of founder, 40% of other: EU, EEA, UNDP)– 20% consultancy

LBDCA - Activites

• management of grant-aid schemes (several hundred applicantions annually)

• programming (Concept, Strategic Develepment Program, OP-s, project proposals)

• research and development (social sciences, environment, GIS)• information dissemination, public involvment, PR (media, events,

publications, internet)• multilevel co-ordination (national, regional, municipal)• regional projects (initiation, promotion, implementation)• international cooperation (Living Lakes) and

projects (EU, GEF/UNDP, JICA, …)

Strategic Vision: To make Lake Balaton and the surrounding region a uniquely attractive area of Europe that provides outstanding conditions for living, working and leisure by emphasising its unique natural beauty and cultural heritage.

2003.　októberBalatonfenyves

Preliminaries – water level problemsPreliminaries – water level problems

Normal level: 80 – 110 cm gaugeOctober 2003 level: 23 cm gauge

Annual natural water balance of Lake Balaton (Varga, Gy., 2007)Natural water balance = Direct precipitation + Inflow - Evaporation

Negative balance for Negative balance for 4 years in a row4 years in a row!!

Negative balance for Negative balance for the first time on the first time on record in 2000record in 2000

Preliminaries – water balancePreliminaries – water balance

Assess vulnerability

Increase knowledge

Build adaptive capacity

Guide adaptation

Disseminate results

General objectivesGeneral objectives

Balaton Adaptation ProjectBalaton Adaptation Project

1. strengthen ecological and socio-economic resilience by increased understanding of lake and watershed processes viewed through the lens of vulnerability and adaptation;

2. strengthen capacity for formulating and implementing adaptive strategies compatible with sustainable development;

3. strengthen the policy framework conducive to adaptive management with particular interest to institutional mechanisms and economic incentives and disincentives;

4. facilitate adaptation to the impacts of climate change through direct action in the form of pilot initiatives funded through LBDC’s existing small grants facility and innovative financing mechanisms; and

5. enhance public and policymaker awareness of integrated vulnerability and adaptation approaches locally, nationally and internationally, including contribution to the GEF’s project on the Adaptation Learning Mechanisms.

Expected outcomesExpected outcomes

• Water quality improvement

• Water quantity control

• Land use change

• Biodiversity conservation

• Demographics assessment

Target issuesTarget issues

* Target issues+ Possible models

Water quantity*+Water quality*+Biodiversity*

GovernanceComplianceAwareness of public policyInstitutional capacity

National governanceNational politicsNational commitments to international conventionsEU directives

Consumption (energy, resources)SeasonalityEmploymentCrimeEducationEconomic diversificationEconomic growthStructure of agricultural productionDevaluation of property

Land-use*+Demographics*+Social capitalTourismAgricultureTransportation

Adaptation　frameworkAdaptation　frameworkNutrientsSuspended materialRun-offKis-Balaton loading and removal efficiencyHabitat lossExtreme weather eventsClimate change+

• Stakeholder meetings • Identified priority issues• Research earlier work

– LIFE, – KÉP, Enviro indicators– EEA, CSD-ISD, UNEP, WHO

• Compile indicators, reduce list• Short-list interim reports• Expert working group meetings• Final core set (ca. 40 indicators)• Data analysis (trends, correlations)

Indicator development processIndicator development process

Indicator selection criteria applied:

– Validity: is the indicator scientifically valid and accurately describes the underlying issue / phenomenon?

– Measurability: is the indicator actually measurable?– Data availability: are data likely to be available? We did not

automatically eliminate indicators with no available data, but preferred to focus on those that already had data.

– Intelligibility: is the indicator understandable by our intended audiences?

Indicator development processIndicator development process

Environment

Economy

Society

IndicatorsIndicators

A total of 40 indicators were selected

Ecological indicatorsEcological indicatorsIssue Indicator PeriodEcological1. Lake-water quality 1.1 Composition of algal biomass 1998-2006

1.2 Water-quality index 1968-20062. Pollutant loading from the watershed

2.1 Phosphorus load 1975-2006

2.2 Erosion potential 20053. Hydrological conditions of the lake and watershed- water quantity

3.1 Water level 1996-2005

3.2 Precipitation level 2002-20063.3 Groundwater level in karst aquifers and wells

1991-2006

4. Biodiversity 4.1 Species composition of fish 1994-20034.2 Number and composition of wintering bird populations

Four migrating seasons from 2003-2004 to2006-2007

5. Shoreline condition 5.1 Ratio between natural and built-up shoreline

1970-2005

5.2 Fragmentation of reed beds 1995-20056. Landscape structure and land-use 6.1 Land-use change 2005

7. Environmental infrastructure and material consumption

7.1 Sewage discharge 1991-2006

7.2 Greenhouse gas emissions 1985-20047.3 Per-capita solid waste production 2000-2007

8. Transportation 8.1 Traffic intensity in lakeside municipalities

1990-2004

9. Climate 9.1 Water temperature 2002-20069.2Wind speed 2002-20069.3 Air temperature 2002-2006

Economic indicatorsEconomic indicators

Issue Indicator Period

Economic

10. Economic development 10.1 Settlement economic potential (SEP)

1994-2004

11. Employment and seasonality 11.1 Unemployment 1990-2006

12. Economic diversity 12.1 Share of tourism in the economy 1999-2004

13. Tourism 13.1 Proportion of domestic versus foreign tourism

1990-2005

13.2 Tourism during the main season 1994-2006

14. Agriculture 14.1 Area of cultivated vineyards 2002-2006

Social indicatorsSocial indicators

Issue Indicator Period

Social

15. Subsistence and poverty 15.1 Percent of people who receive local government welfare aid

1993-2005

16. Awareness 16.1 Number of civil society organizations per 1,000 residents

2000-2006

17. Demographic issues 17.1 Balance of migration 1990-2005

17.2 Rate of dependency 1990-2005

18. Crime and security 18.1 Number of property-related crimes per 10,000 inhabitants

2002-2005

19. Education 19.1 Percent of people who completed at least elementary school

2002-2005

20. Public health 20.1 Life expectancy 1990-2000

Indicators - TrendsIndicators - Trends

Indicators - CorrelationsIndicators - Correlations

Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures

Adaptation measures identified through •expert knowledge•modeling and scenarios •stakeholder consultation and workshops

Adaptation pilot projects Adaptation policy recommendations to be

integrated into calls for proposals in the Lake Balaton region

Policy frameworksPolicy frameworks

Integration of Lake Balaton-specific adaptation measures into key national and regional development plans

National Climate Change StrategyNational Development Plan 2007-2013Lake Balaton Long-term Development Conceptual PlanRegional grant schemes

Capacity buildingCapacity building

Methods applied

Participation of national and local experts in project implementationThrough the stakeholder participatory processKnow-how transferLocal, national and international workshopsAwareness risingDecision maker support

Pilot projectsPilot projects

Building in concepts of adaptation into projects funded by national and EU mechanismsSpecific projects funded through regional grants

Monitored throughout and after the end of the BAP and lessons built into future adaptation policies

ReplicabilityReplicability

Tools and knowledge developed in the BAP project that can be used for replication

• Methodology• Models and technical tools• Indicators and indicator analysis• Pilot projects• Policy influencing strategy• Adaptation policies and measures

ReplicabilityReplicability

National replicability in other regions Tisza, Tisza-tó, Danube

A parallel ”elite survey” is in progress in the Tisza and Balaton regions to determine the awareness, understanding and capacity of regional leaders towards climate change and adaptation.BAP can help buy-in of politicians into climate adaptation

International replicabilityMethodology can be applied internationally such as in in EU interreg projects, EU – Non-EU cooperation schemes and through bilateral partnerships of lake area organizations

Lake Balaton has partnership agreements with the Loire region, FranceLake Poyang, ChinaLake Chapala, MexicoLake Biwa, Japan

Lake Balaton Development Coordination AgencyH-8600 Siófok, Batthyány u. 1.

Tel./Fax: +36 84 317 002website: www.balatonregion.hu

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!