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Latino Legislative Caucus poll memo.
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GARINHARTYANG
RESEARCH GROUP
Page 1
1724 Connect icut Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20009
Tel : (202) 234-5570
Fax: (202) 232-8134
www.hart research.com
M E M O R A N D U M TO: California Latino Legislative Caucus
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: February 2, 2015
RE: Recent Statewide Survey about 2016 US Senate Election
From January 27 to 29, 2015, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 600
likely California voters in the June 2016 primary. The survey, which has a margin
of error of ±4 percentage points, is representative of a statewide sample by region,
partisanship, and ethnicity.
While the campaign to succeed Senator Boxer is very much in flux, with
the field far from settled, our polling data indicates that a Latino candidate
could mount a strong challenge (in fact, the best-known Latino already
starts in a competitive position), and has the chance to energize an
electorate that is very pro-Democratic.
The following memo presents the key findings:
A plurality of primary voters expresses a preference to elect a Democrat
(48%) over a Republican (40%) in the generic ballot test for US senator.
Latinos in particular have a strong affinity for a Democrat, voting Democratic by an
overwhelming 66% to 20%.
Among the various figures mentioned as candidates (potential or
otherwise) for the US Senate seat, Kamala Harris and Antonio Villaraigosa
have the highest statewide profiles.
GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP
Page 2
Selected Public Figures’ Name Recognition
25%
25%
26%
41%
46%
62%
66%Antonio Villaraigosa
Kamala Harris
Loretta Sanchez
Alex Padilla
Ashley Swearengin
Adam Schiff
Xavier Becerra
By virtue of having the highest name recognition, both Harris and Villaraigosa have
respectable name recognition outside their respective political bases. Harris has
76% name recognition in the San Francisco media market, while three-fifths of
voters in the LA media market recognize her. Villaraigosa is known by more than
four in five voters in the LA media market, while slightly fewer than half the voters
in the San Francisco media market know him.
A hypothetical four-way match-up finds a very competitive situation, with
the lone Republican (Ashley Swearengin) holding a narrow lead over
Kamala Harris, and Antonio Villaraigosa maintaining a competitive
position.
31%
28%
18%
4%
19%
Preference in Four-Way Senate Trial Heat
AshleySwearengin
KamalaHarris
AntonioVillaraigosa
AdamSchiff
Undecided
Swearengin
Harris
Villaraigosa
Schiff
Undecided
LAmedia
31%
24%
24%
6%
14%
SFmedia
24%
42%
15%
1%
18%
Latinos
17%
20%
44%
5%
14%
GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP
Page 3
There are several encouraging poll findings regarding the potential for
Antonio Villaraigosa, or another Latino candidate with the ability to gain
statewide name recognition, to gain support in a primary election that is
fluid.
First, of the candidates named in the previous trial heat, Villaraigosa is the
top “second choice” in the four-way trial heat for US senator.
26%
19%
14%
6%
35%
Preference in Four-Way Senate Trial Heat,If First Choice Does Not Run
AshleySwearengin
KamalaHarris
AntonioVillaraigosa
AdamSchiff
Undecided
Second, the proportion of Latinos in our survey of primary voters was 17%, which
is a reasonable estimate for a traditional primary election, but far below the
population of voting-age Latinos (38%), the proportion of Latinos who are
registered voters (27%), AND the proportion of Latinos who voted in the 2012
presidential election (22%). There is some indication from our poll that a
viable Latino candidate could generate enthusiasm among this
constituency and even expand its turnout; overall, voters say they would feel
more favorable toward a Latino candidate by 13% (compared with 5% less
favorable), but that result increases to 33% “more favorable” among Latinos
(higher than, for example, the 27% of women who feel “more favorable” toward a
woman candidate).
In summary, our poll mirrors other recently released surveys which show Kamala
Harris with a head start among Democratic candidates, but her advantage over her
potential opponents is far from overwhelming given that she has been on the
statewide ballot TWICE since 2010. Given the fluidity that is typical of primary
elections and a constituency that has not voted in strong numbers but has the
potential to be energized, there is real potential here for a credible Latino
candidate.