Lost in Translation How can science better inform the public about natural hazards

迷失在翻译

如何更好地用科学为公众翻译自然灾害

Michael S. Bruno Dean, School of Engineering and Science

Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ

Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast models

TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT

TO COMMUNICATE

Weather, Currents , Water Level, Salinity, Temperature, Waves

New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System

NYHOPS OMDR:

Real-Time Data

Forecasts out to 48 hours

http://www.stevens.edu/maritimeforecast

YY MM DD hh WD WSP D GST WVHT DPD APD MWD BAR ATMP WTMP91 4 29 21 79 5.6 6.9 1.1 6.7 4.9 999 1022.6 8.9 8.691 4 29 22 90 3.5 4.3 1.2 5.9 5 999 1022.8 8.7 8.691 4 29 23 79 3.6 4.3 1.2 6.7 5.2 999 1022.1 8.7 8.691 4 30 0 75 3.4 4 1.1 6.7 5.2 999 1021.9 8.7 8.691 4 30 1 71 4.5 5.6 1 7.1 5.1 999 1022 8.9 8.691 4 30 2 76 4 4.6 1 7.1 5.1 999 1022.5 9 8.691 4 30 3 82 4 4.6 0.9 7.1 5.2 999 1021.9 8.9 8.691 4 30 4 82 4.8 5.5 0.8 6.7 5 999 1021.2 8.9 8.691 4 30 5 112 4.1 4.9 0.8 6.7 5.1 999 1020.4 9 8.691 4 30 6 111 2.6 3 0.8 6.2 5.1 999 1019.9 9 8.691 4 30 7 82 1.5 2 0.8 6.7 5.2 999 1019.6 9 8.691 4 30 8 48 2.8 3.3 0.9 7.1 5.3 999 1019.8 9 8.691 4 30 9 73 5.3 6.2 0.8 5.9 5.3 999 1019.1 8.7 8.691 4 30 10 93 3.4 4.1 0.8 7.1 5.3 999 1019.1 8.9 8.691 4 30 12 111 6.3 7 0.8 7.7 5.3 999 1017.3 9 8.691 4 30 13 113 5.7 6.7 0.8 6.7 5.1 999 1016.5 9.7 8.691 4 30 14 131 4.1 4.8 0.8 5.9 4.9 999 1015.9 9.7 8.691 4 30 15 123 1.6 1.9 0.8 6.2 5 999 1016.4 9.8 8.791 4 30 16 131 4.1 4.6 0.8 5.9 5.2 999 1015 10.3 8.791 4 30 17 132 4.9 5.5 0.8 7.7 5.3 999 1014.4 10.9 8.791 4 30 18 170 3.9 4.4 0.8 8.3 5.3 999 1013.9 10.8 8.791 4 30 19 169 3.1 3.5 99 99 99 999 1013.3 10.3 8.791 4 30 20 222 3.6 4.3 0.9 6.2 5.5 999 1012.7 10.5 8.991 4 30 21 261 2.9 3.5 0.9 6.2 5.6 999 1012.7 10.2 8.991 4 30 22 308 3.1 3.8 0.8 7.7 5.4 999 1012.6 11.2 8.991 4 30 23 349 2.5 2.8 0.8 6.7 5.6 999 1011.8 11.3 8.991 5 1 0 210 2.1 2.6 0.8 6.7 5.5 999 1012.5 10.3 8.991 5 1 1 200 1.5 1.9 0.8 6.2 5.4 999 1012.6 9.8 8.991 5 1 2 218 1 1.5 0.8 7.7 5.4 999 1012.9 9.9 8.991 5 1 3 28 1 1.6 0.8 8.3 5.3 999 1012.6 10.3 8.891 5 1 4 308 1 1.3 0.7 7.1 5.2 999 1012.7 9.5 8.791 5 1 5 28 3.1 3.4 0.7 5.9 5.2 999 1013.3 10.2 8.791 5 1 6 75 2.1 2.4 0.7 6.7 5.3 999 1013.5 10.3 8.791 5 1 7 114 0.9 1.7 0.7 6.7 5.4 999 1013.7 10.2 8.7

Event Phonebook Warning

Color Coded Flood Levels Vertical datum selection Units selection Download data option Surge, prediction error

http://www.stevens.edu/maritimeforecast

Storm Surge Height at Lower Manhattan Adapted from:

Hoboken, October 31, 2012

The owner didn’t know – and didn’t care – whether the storm surge was going to be 9.5 feet, or the water level was going to be 14 feet MLLW. What he/she wanted to know was where was the water going to be relative to the dry land surrounding the boat?

船主不知道－也不想知道－是否风暴潮会达９.５英尺，或水位会至平均较低低潮位之上１４英尺 。他/她只想知道，以船附近的干地作参考，水会涨到哪里？

Is Street-Level Forecasting

and Visualization the answer?

Why This Matters 这为什么重要

晚间地球

人口密度

20% of the world’s population lived within 30 km (walking distance) of the coast

40% lived within 100 km (1 hour drive)

50 % (3.1 billion people) lived within 200 km of the coast 11 of the world’s 15 largest cities are located in the coastal zone.

Global sea level rise and land subsidence are causing coastal sea level rise of approximately 1 foot per 100 years along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts “Humanity is the first species to become a geophysical force.” (E.O. Wilson)

The Bigger Picture In the year 2000:

２０％世界人口住在距海岸线３０公里以内（步行距离） ４０％住在距离１００公里以内（一小时车程） ５０％（３１亿人）住在距离２００公里以内 世界上最大的１５个城市有１１个在海岸区 全球海平面上升和地面沉降正使美国东部和南部的海岸水位以约 每百年一英尺的速率上升 “人类成为第一个能影响地球物理的物种” (E.O. Wilson)

更大的图景 在２０００年:

% population living within 200 km of coast (2010)

What’s Next? 下一步?

We – the scientific community – need to work together on an international scale to address two primary needs:

1. Develop guiding principles, supporting data, and design guidelines for Resilient Coastal Urban Communities.

2. Develop more effective ways to Translate scientific information, and Risk and Vulnerability into terms that the public can understand and act on. This will lead to Public Policy informed by new knowledge & better understanding. 公共政策基于更新的知

识和对科学更好的理解

Thank you! 谢谢！