Market Pulse-May 2016 (Public)

MARKET PULSEMay 2016

1

Survey Methodology

• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®

• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month.

2

MARKET CONDITIONS

3

Floor Call Growth Slowing

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

67 6562

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ind

ex

Index (>50 is positive)

4

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Market Pulse Survey

ListingAppointments/Client PresentationsGrowthSlowing

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was …

7067

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ind

ex


5


Open HouseTraffic Growth Declining

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …

6972

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

Ind

ex


6


Auctions Flat

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

33

38 38

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

Ind

ex


7


All Cash Purchases Down

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

5155

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16

Ind

ex


8


Lack of Housing Inventory Remains #1 Concern

9

4.0%

5.2%

7.0%

7.3%

18%

22%

28%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Rising interest rates

Lending & financing

Slow down in economic growth

Housing bubble

Inflated home prices

Decline in housing affordability

Lack of Inventory

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?


TheGap is Narrowing

10

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Inventory Affordability


REALTORS® LessOptimistic about MarketConditionsOver the NextYear

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

64 6154

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ind

ex


11


Why REALTORS® Expect MarketConditions toWorsen

Financing and lack of new units being built.

End of market cycle.

Financing, inflated prices, another housingbubble burst!

Income to price ratio is making it difficult forany movement.

Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

12


LASTTRANSACTION

13

Most Properties SellingOver/AtAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

40% 40%34%

26% 28%27%

34% 32%38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Below At Over

14


More Properties SellingAboveAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

-6% -8%

4%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Net % of Properties Selling Below/Above Asking Price

15


Premium Paid overAsking Price Declining

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

8.0%

9.6%9.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Average

16


% Paid BelowAsking Price Dropped

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-7.0%

-12%

-10%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-15

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

17


68% of Properties Received MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

65%

69%68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

18


Number of Offers Up

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.8 2.93.1

Average


19


MultipleOffers HigherYTY

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1 2 3 4 5 6+

34%

20% 19%

10%

4.0%

11%

31%

22%

14%

9.3% 10%

13%

Number of Offers

15-May 16-May


20


3+ Offers Up

55%55%

54%

45% 45%46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%1-2 3+


21


3+Offers Higher inAffordable PriceCategories

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

27%

33%

43%

55%50%

39%

67% 67%

13%

40%

52%

41%

56%

50%

61%

0%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Pro

pe

rtie

sR

ece

ivin

g3+

Off

ers

15-May 16-May


22


23% of Properties Had Listing Price Reductions

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

25%23% 23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%Ju

n-1

4

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

De

c-14

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-15

De

c-15

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

23


Proportion of BuyersWhoWere RentersUp Slightly

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Ja

n-1

4

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-14

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

38%

44%45%

24


Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%Ja

n-1

4

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-14

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

15%16%

15%

25


Share of First-time Buyers UpLong RunAverage: 32%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

31% 32%

38%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average

26


Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

27


Proportion of International BuyersUpLong RunAverage: 6.2%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

28


3.2%

6.6%

8.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

% International Buyers Long Run Average

Top 10 Counties of Respondents

Q: In which county do you live?

29

April 2016 May 2016

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego Orange

3 Riverside Riverside

4 Orange Alameda

5 Contra Costa San Diego

6 Alameda Contra Costa

7 Ventura Placer

8 Santa Clara Sacramento

9 Sacramento Santa Clara

10 San Bernardino San Bernardino


Documents

Market Pulse-May 2016 (Public)