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May 6th, 2013
Harry Takeichi
1
ATIE 2013 New Delhi
Cloud Impact in Japan~ Government, Carriers and Vendors ~
2
Can Japan end ‘Lost Decades’?ABENOMICS is making psychological upturn
J-Yen/1USD Rate
79 99(Nov.13, 12) (Apr.24, 13)
NIKKEI Stock Average
8,661 13,766 (Nov.13, 12) (Apr.23, 13)
25.3% 58.9%
LT Interest Rate
0.73% 0.32% (Nov.13, 12) (Apr.5, 13)
43.8%
Fiscal: Big Gov’t Investment in infrastructure
( 2 Trillion USD for Resilient-Japan Project)
Monetary: BOJ targets 2% inflation by 2years
BOJ supplies double money to market
Growth: PM leads growth measures & deregulation
TPP, EPAs (EU, RCEP, China/Korea)
3
Economic Growth Scenario Unprecedented Experiment
Kuroda, the Governor of BOJ explains 2% (inflation) in 2years, 2 times of money supply.
Ends Deflation? Promote ICT Solutions for issues i.e. Energy, Aging, Food and Environment
Government makes big public Investment to social Infrastructure
ICT Deployment to Social Infrastructure
Spending & Investment maybe stimulated….but
Will competitive products & services emerge??
TPP, Japan-EU EPA Japan/PRC/KoreaRCEP(ASEAN+6), TISA
- Drastic De-regulation?- Lower Corporate Tax?
Government Task Forces for Growth
4
Mikitani-Paper~ New Japan KPI Proposal ~
Mr. Mikitani, president of Rakuten, proposes new national KPIs for new business innovation by IT at the Council for Industrial Competitiveness
Repeal ‘Face to Face’, ‘Written Document’ Rules WEF ‘ICT Regulation Ranking’ 42 10 or upper
New KPI
Internet/ICT ‘Autobahn’ Policy - Speed (Fixed/Mobile)- Autobahn=no speed limit/no fees
LTE 7.1M/s World Fastest
Almost Free (or Nationalized)
Cloud Service Expansion - Cloud Service % to Government IT spending - Government Service Cost /GDP
25% by 2018
23.1% 20% or less
Encourage Engineers & Venturesin Number / Quality / Tax
-Number of IT engineers - Foreign IT Experts entry
with working visa/year- Start-ups ratio
0.9mil 2mil
2,85220,000
3.2% 10%
Present Target
5
Mikitani-Paper~ New Japan KPI Proposal ~
Mr. Mikitani, president of Rakuten, proposes new national KPIs for new business innovation by IT at the Council for Industrial Competitiveness
Repeal ‘Face to Face’, ‘Written Document’ Rules WEF ‘ICT Regulation Ranking’ 42 10 or upper
New KPI
Internet/ICT ‘Autobahn’ Policy - Speed (Fixed/Mobile)- Autobahn=no speed limit/no fees
LTE 7.1M/s World Fastest
Almost Free (or Nationalized)
Cloud Service Expansion - Cloud Service % to Government IT spending - Government Service Cost /GDP
25% by 2018
23.1% 20% or less
Encourage Engineers & Venturesin Number / Quality / Tax
-Number of IT engineers - Foreign IT Experts entry
with working visa/year- Start-ups ratio
0.9mil 2mil
2,85220,000
3.2% 10%
20.3%
20.3%
25.3%
21.2%
Government Service Cost /GDP
Designate 25%($20Bil) of government services to shift to cloud in 2011 By 2015, 50% of Central Government’s new IT spending must be shifted to cloud
Present Target Present TargetBy 2015
11.1%
11.5%
Start-ups % (2008)
Telecom Operators make Good Profits, Electronics Makers make Huge Losses
Auto
mob
ile
Phar
mac
eutic
al
Mac
hine
ry
Food
Chem
ical
Prec
isio
n In
stru
men
t
Non
-ferr
ous
met
al
Pulp
Pap
er
Texti
le
Ship
build
ing
Oil
Stee
l
Elec
tric
Equ
ipm
ent
Trad
ing
Tele
com
Serv
ice
Real
Est
ate
Reta
il
Gas
Cons
truc
tion
Land
Tra
nspo
rtati
on
Mar
ine
Tran
spor
tatio
n
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Profits of listed companies for Apr-Sep, 2011 vs 2012(not including Power and Monetary industry)
2011 2Q 2012 2Q
US$ Billion
Manufacturing non-manufacturing
(Source: Nikkei)
7
Who is your rival?~ Interviews with Carrier Tops ~
‘Customers’as a fast-changing marketing target
‘Silicon Valley’ as a innovative group of synergy
‘Verizon Communications’ as a cloud servicer
8
Verizon Show at CES 2013~No Phones There~
Running shoes thatUploads runners data without smartphone
Foot ball helmet that uploads detailed data of shock for players so that a team can monitors their health
Trash can in Allentown, PA, advises city sanitation department of the suitable timing to be emptied so that garbage truck routes can be optimized Heads-up PC that makes
a worker`s both hands free
Plug-in On Board Diagnosis (OBD) module that gathers various car data so that rental-car company monitorsfor efficient maintenance
9
NTT DoCoMo keynote at MWC 2013~ $11B revenue from New Business in 2015~
Mr. Kaoru Kato (President, 2012- )
10
Why carriers move toward Cloud 1. Network Concept has changed. Services are provided by Data Centers (not by network nodes)
IAAS
SAAS
DC
DC
DC
Application SW
PAAS
Cache Server for popular video contents
2. Major OTT players own & operate dedicated DCs and backbone network, that push telecom carriers down to access conduit and deprive their revenues.
Global WAN to connect own DCs
DC IX
IX
Peering with ISPs
ISP
ISP
ISP
Telecom Carrier Job Scope
DC
DC
11
NTT Invests to transform themselves to a CLOUD Player
‘Be A Valued Partner of Inter-service’ Focuses ‘Global Cloud Services’ as its core business
Supports Business Model Innovation and Quality Life Style Further expands Overseas business (US$20B revenue by 2017) Acquired
Mr. Satoshi Miura(President, 2007-2012)
Mr. Hiroo Unoura(President, 2012- )
‘Driving for Service Creation Group’ Focuses on Solution Services Creation
Expands Overseas Business (US$10B revenue by 2012)
Acquired
Acquisitions to be a Cloud Player
Ms. Meg Whitman(President & CEO)
US$1.6Billion by HP (2007)
US$13.9Billion by HP
(2008)
Mr. Glen F. Post(CEO)
US$2.5Billion by Century Link (2011) Mr. Lowell McAdam
(Chairman &CEO)
US$1.4Billion by Verizon (2011)
US$0.445Billion by Verizon (2007)
13
ICT Value Shifts Rapidly
Connecting A with B
Easy Access to Information
Search Information
Sharing Information
Mobile BB Internet with intuitive UI smartphone
Utility IT Service(Public Cloud)
Convenient Shopping
Behavior / Preference Analysis & Target Marketing
Solution
- Single Answer ( find my best one from crowdsourcing)
- Intelligent Answer (avoid known failures)
Delightful Experience
- Impossible to Possible
- Unaffordable to Affordable
- More Human-front Services (ICT-innovated analogue services) - High Social Value
Game Changer, Black-box
- Creation of Industry, Market, Social Structure- Users can be Servicers by sharing their own resources
14
Competition of Customer Experience~ Retail Market in Japan~
Pleasure like mall window shopping
Logistics Centric - minimum delivery time by its own huge warehouse- Support purchase decision by personalized line-up
Active Tenants Centric- Ultimate support to tenant shops
Pleasure to make the simplest shopping with the quickest delivery and long-tail line up.
Face to face interaction with real human clerks ease and pleases net- phobia customers
Human Service centric value- Shop clerks’ face to face support service- Internet order with pick-up / layaway at shop- outsourcing for home kitchen/fridge & store- Multi-purpose hybrid terminal (ATM, Government Service, Entertainment tickets etc)
Cost and After-Sale Service Centric- Networking local SMCs as decentralized warehouse and sales-support resource- Strong ASKUL’s B2B (wholesale and logistics)- Yahoo’s attracting portal and auction
Pleasure to make the most economical shopping
Telecom Operators make Good Profits, Electronics Makers make Huge Losses
Auto
mob
ile
Phar
mac
eutic
al
Mac
hine
ry
Food
Chem
ical
Prec
isio
n In
stru
men
t
Non
-ferr
ous
met
al
Pulp
Pap
er
Texti
le
Ship
build
ing
Oil
Stee
l
Elec
tric
Equ
ipm
ent
Trad
ing
Tele
com
Serv
ice
Real
Est
ate
Reta
il
Gas
Cons
truc
tion
Land
Tra
nspo
rtati
on
Mar
ine
Tran
spor
tatio
n
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Profits of listed companies for Apr-Sep, 2011 vs 2012(not including Power and Monetary industry)
2011 2Q 2012 2Q
US$ Billion
Manufacturing non-manufacturing
(Source: Nikkei)
16
FY2011:1us$=80yenFY2012:1us$=94yen
Hitachi
Toshiba
Mits
ubishi
NEC
Fujitsu
Sony
Sharp
Panasonic0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Revenue2011 2012 (Forecast)
US$ Billion
Hitachi
Toshiba
Mits
ubishi
NEC
Fujitsu
Sony
Sharp
Panasonic-10
-8-6-4-20246
Net Profit / Loss2011 2012 (Forecast)
US$ Billion
All-Rounder ICT Consumer Electronics
All-Rounder ICT Consumer Electronics
Japan Electronics - Financials
17
Panasonic Net loss2011 ($9,652M)2012 Forecast ($9,562M)
Sharp Net loss
2011 ($4,700M)2012 Forecast ($5,625M)
1US$=80yen
Mr. Tsuga, president of Panasonic, targets $20Billion automobile related revenue in 2018. Assuming $70-80Bof total Panasonic revenue in 2018, automobile and house related revenue is expected to consists its majority.
Mr. Okuda, president of Sharp, tries to change its culture of growth by one-strong-product. He aims to become a leading hitter from being a slugger (home-run hitter).
2012 Financial Fiasco Drives Them to Different Places
Sony Net loss Net Profit
2011 ($5,708M)2012 Forecast $250M
Mr. Hirai, president of Sony, commits to revive original Sony DNA, which product stimulates peoples curiosity and move users emotionally.
18
Marketing Real Value oriented Differentiate from competitors Statistic Analysis of Point of Use (Big Data) Co-creation with partners
Software Developer / Systems Integrator Vendors deliver service Deliver complete software No more huge scale effort basis contract Vendor continue to develop while it is on service (No
user requirements. Nobody knows final specification) Mashup and Customization service business will grow
Tough Paradigms for VendorsServers / Storages
20% of servers sold world-wide is bought by
design servers and manufacture them by ODM Low power consumption is a key ARM processor server Intel, SSD (Flash memory drive) HHD
Network Platforms Generic LSI Customized LSI make 10GPS
OpenFlow switch by themselves
Data Centers Standardize specs of DC => DC as commodity DCs Interworking and service
orchestration is key technology Scale-out Scale up ( 15,000 servers/ 1 operator)
DC
DC
DC
Application SW
PAAS SAAS
IAAS
Terminals Voice I/F on all things Terminals For illiteracy (48% of Indian people )
Conclusions
- Government: - Regulation reform for new business emergence &
government cost reduction
- Telecom: - Cloud-infra (DC/Platform) Provider Total Application Servicer
- Service: - Social value oriented - Human-oriented service
- ICT Vendors: - Tough time for restructuring ….- Higher Technology Service Value
- Seeking for new value by vertical integration
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