Monitor mensual de materias primas · Resumen Martin Arnold, Director - FX & Macro Strategist Nitesh Shah, Director - Commodities Strategist Contenido Análisis del mercado de materias

Resumen

Martin Arnold, Director - FX & Macro Strategist

Nitesh Shah, Director - Commodities Strategist

ContenidoAnálisis del mercado de materias primas 1

Resumen de tablas de datos 4

Posicionamiento neto de la CFTC 5

Inventarios 9

Medias móviles y volúmenes 13

Curvas de futuros 17

Roll yields 21

Publicaciones recientes 27

Commodity Monthly Matrix1 Performance

2- 1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth

All Commodities 3.9% 4.4% -16.9%Energy 5.8% -11.4% -41.2%

WTI Oil 46 10.7% 16.2% 7.4% 4% -1.5% 0 (1) Industrial Metals -3.0% -0.6% -27.6%Brent Oil 48 8.3% 13.3% -1.1% -21% -0.6% 0 1 Precious Metals 2.7% 18.4% 2.7%Natural Gas 2.1 2.9% -5.1% 2.0% 6% -6.6% (1) 1 Agriculture 6.9% 9.5% 2.5%Gasoline 1.6 3.8% 19.7% -8.0% -6% -0.5% 0 0 MSCI World -1.9% -0.2% -8.3%

Heating Oil 1.4 10.9% 8.6% -24.0% 45% -0.6% 2 0 US Aggregate Bond 0.5% 3.9% 4.2%

Carbon 5.8 5.6% -17.1% - - 0.0% 0 0

Wheat 4.7 0.8% -2.9% 7.7% 34% -2.1% (1) (3)

Corn 3.8 2.3% 3.4% -0.8% 323% -2.2% 2 2

Soybeans 11 10.4% 17.1% -15.2% 100% -0.9% 2 2

Sugar 0.2 19.5% 19.5% -13.1% 38% -1.5% 2 (1)

Cotton 0.6 -1.6% -1.6% -7.3% 1210% -1.1% 0 2

Coffee 1.3 5.8% 6.4% - -41% -1.0% (3) (4)

Soybean Oil 0.3 -5.3% 6.9% 0.8% -24% -1.0% (3) 0

Cocoa 2,961 1.5% -4.2% - 95% -0.2% 0 (4) CFTC Net Speculative PositioningAluminium 1,517 -2.0% -0.8% -5.5% 21% -0.6% 0 2 (in '000 contracts)

Copper (COMEX) 2.1 -4.3% -5.4% -4.4% -2% 0.0% 0 (4)

Copper (LME) 4,637 -4.4% -4.8% -28.9% -27% 0.1% 0 0

Zinc 1,880 0.2% 10.5% -5.6% -5% -0.2% 0 (2)

Nickel 8,600 -3.9% -6.2% -6.1% 32% -0.2% 0 1

Lead 1,706 -2.6% -0.5% 5.3% 4% 0.0% (2) (2)

Tin 16,657 -2.6% 7.1% 49.6% -13% -0.1% (3) 0

Gold 1,273 2.1% 10.0% - 21% - 4 2

Silver 17 4.8% 13.3% - 28% - 4 4

Platinum 1,052 5.0% 11.6% - 32% - 4 0

Palladium 592 9.2% 2.9% - 136% - 4 (4)

Live Cattle 1.2 -6.6% -7.4% - -15% 4.0% (1) (1)

Lean Hogs 0.8 15.5% 15.6% - 2% -6.2% 1 (1)

Feeder Cattle 1.5 -5.0% -13.7% - -24% 0.5% (1) (1)Source: CFTC, Bloomberg

1

18 Apr

Score

Sources: Bloomberg, Bloomberg TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Friday 13 May

2016.

The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg

" - " Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this report. 2 All prices are futures

prices to May 13, 2016. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past 6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures and

LME COTR net positioning as at May 13, 2016, and May 10, 2016 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front month and second month futures prices on report date.

Los precios de muchas materias primas agrícolas han aumentado como consecuencia del fenómeno climático de El Niño. Se espera que el fenómeno meteorológico opuesto (La Niña) llegue en invierno del hemisferio norte, lo que podría mejorar la producción de muchos cultivos en la cosecha 2016/17.

En términos generales, el desempeño de los metales industriales fue negativo en mayo, debido a la fortaleza del dólar y el aumento de los inventarios. A juzgar por el posicionamiento especulativo en los futuros, los inversores están cada vez más pesimistas respecto al sector.

El rango de precios del crudo de $45-$50/bbl podría estar en peligro si los inventarios no continúan cayendo. De hecho, a pesar de las interrupciones de producción de Canadá y Nigeria, la AIE de Estados Unidos ha advertido que los inventarios no han parado de crecer.

Un contexto macroeconómico frágil sigue siendo favorable para el oro. La demanda de inversión para el oro en el primer trimestre fue la segunda mayor de su historia. Asimismo los precios del paladio se han recuperado debido principalmente al cierre de cortos; sus fundamentos siguen siendo favorables a largo plazo.

Current

Price2

Returns

(-1 Mth)

Price vs 200

days MAInventories

3

(- 3 Mths)

Positioning4

(- 1 Mth)Roll Yield

5 13 May

Score

Monitor mensual de materias primasLos fundamentos atractivos atenúan la baja demanda de activos de riesgoMayo / Junio de 2016

La reciente volatilidad constatada en varias clases de activo se ha debido a una serie de factores: la incertidumbre respecto a la política de la Reserva Federal, los riesgos a que se dé una Brexit en el Reino Unido, la desaceleración económica de China y los resultados corporativos pocos convincentes en la renta variable de los mercados desarrollados. Para el mes entrante, seguimos contemplando una caída del dólar principalmente a causa de la debilidad temporal de la economía de EE.UU, que junto con el aumento de la volatilidad de los mercados, genera mayores probabilidades a que la Fed no altere los intereses en la reunión del FOMC de junio. Cabe observar que la misma se da ocho días antes del referéndum en el Reino Unido.

A pesar de los recientes datos macro decepcionantes de China, el cual consume el 40% de la producción mundial de metales industriales, esperamos que la demanda de materias primas continúe aumentando un 8% en la región. De todos modos, a pesar de los mayores indicios de cambios en los niveles de oferta-demanda, las expectativas son las mejores desde principios de 2014. Esto hace que miremos con buenos ojos la evolución de los metales industriales, ya que marcan la mayor brecha entre sus costes marginales y precios actuales. Si bien los gastos operativos de la industria minera continúan reduciéndose por cuarto año consecutivo, sigue habiendo en el sector un importante déficit de oferta.

En el sector energético, los precios rebotaron durante el mes pasado, habiendo registrado el WTI y la calefacción apreciaciones de doble dígito. Históricamente, nunca ha habido un incremento del precio del crudo durante la temporada veraniega de conducción de automóviles, en la cual la demanda de destilados aumenta. Es por ello que, al estar estos precios sobre los máximos de sus rangos recientes, se necesita constatar un nuevo hecho para que tomen un nuevo impulso en un mercado donde la oferta mundial ya es excesiva de por sí.

La Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA) aumentó a 75% las probabilidades de que el efecto de La Niña comience en el otoño del hemisferio norte. Esto sugiere que los volúmenes de cosecha en el sector agrícola serán mucho mayores a los previstos.

James Butterfill, Executive Director - Head of Research & Investment Strategy

Edith Southammakosane, Director - Multi-Asset Strategist

Morgane Delledonne, Associate Director - Fixed Income Strategist

Aneeka Gupta, Associate - Equity & Commodity Strategist

Agricultura Agriculture - May Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Metales industriales Industrial Metals - May Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Energía Energy - May Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Metales preciosos Precious Metals - May Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

*Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Friday 13 May 2016.2

El paladio fue el metal precioso de mejor desempeño, al apreciarse un 9% con respecto al mes anterior. Las fuertes ventas mundiales de automóviles, junto con las normas de emisión más estrictas para los vehículos diésel en Europa y los motores a gasolina en todo el mundo, están generando una mayor demanda de platino y paladio, respectivamente. Además, se espera que el platino y el paladio permanezcan en un déficit de oferta por quinto año consecutivo, debido a la creciente demanda impulsada por la industria automovilística en medio de niveles de oferta que no varían. Dado que los acuerdos existentes vencen en junio, se espera que comiencen las nuevas negociaciones salariales de los mineros de platino de Sudáfrica. Esto podría generar huelgas y cortes de producción en caso de que las negociaciones no prosperen, como se vio en el 2014.

Los precios del oro fueron respaldados por la baja demanda de activos de riesgo generados por la moderación de los datos económicos de EE.UU y China. Es probable que siga apreciándose debido a las preocupaciones sobre los problemas de deuda de China y al hecho que los resultados corporativos de EE.UU y Europa no colmen las expectativas. El Consejo Mundial del Oro estimó para el primer trimestre de 2016, un aumento interanual del 21% de la demanda. Esto sería el mayor nivel de demanda trimestral de la historia, generado por los grandes capitales colocados recientemente a través de ETFs, lingotes y monedas. Si bien la demanda de joyería se mantuvo débil, en parte, debido a la huelga de los fabricantes de joyas de la India, esperamos que esta tendencia se revierta debido a las expectativas favorables de la temporada monzónica en dicho país.

El azúcar se apreció un 19,5% el mes pasado, con la ayuda de la subida del real. Si bien no es alocado pensar que la atenuación de El Niño haya tenido un impacto negativo en la producción de caña, creemos que el reciente repunte es impulsado por la variación del tipo de cambio. La divisa brasilera se recuperó tras la suspensión de la presidenta Rousseff. Brasil representa cerca del 45% de las exportaciones mundiales de azúcar. Durante buena parte de 2015, la depreciación del real alentó las exportaciones de azúcar denominadas en dólares. No obstante ahora, cuando el tipo de cambio vuelve a apreciarse, la oferta brasileña podría disminuir. Brasil está en las primeras etapas de su cosecha anual de caña y los primeros indicios muestran un inicio más rápido en comparación al del año pasado, ayudado por el tiempo seco. India, el segundo productor mundial, viene produciendo un 11% menos que el año pasado, ya que la sequía provocada por El Niño ha dañado a su producción.

La primera publicación de la estimación de demanda-oferta de cultivos para 2016/17 del Departamento de Agricultura de EE.UU (USDA), provocó un aumento del precio de los granos. La soja en particular, ganó un 10,4% ante una reducción de los niveles de granos estimados. Sin embargo, los pronósticos provisionales del USDA (siembra de cosechas que en muchos casos ni siquiera han tenido lugar todavía), muestran un aumento para 2016/17. Creemos que el desarrollo de una La Niña a finales de este año podría reducir el riesgo de sequía en América del Sur y aumentar la producción.

El algodón cayó un 1,6% el mes pasado a medida que China limitó la operativa especulativa en los mercados de futuros. Un aumento del trading en la ICE alrededor del mismo período podría indicar que algunas operativas de trading se cambiaron de ubicación. El posicionamiento especulativo neto en los futuros sobre algodón negociados en la ICE Nº 2, pasó de ser corto neto a largo neto.

Los metales industriales en general registraron una rentabilidad negativa en mayo, como consecuencia de un dólar más firme, la valoración de los títulos en la bolsa de Shanghai y los datos económicos más débiles de lo esperado de China. La producción industrial de China creció más lentamente de lo esperado, en un 6% interanual y la inversión en activos fijos moderó su crecimiento al 10,5%. El cobre y el níquel perdieron un 4,4% y 3,9%, respectivamente. El zinc fue el único metal industrial que registró una rentabilidad positiva (0,2%). Es probable que entre en un déficit de la oferta de acuerdo con los principales grupos de estudio de metal intergubernamental, tras la intensificación en los últimos meses de la demanda de India y China.

El Consejo Internacional de Cobre Forjado (IWCC, por sus siglas en inglés) ha culminado su última revisión del mercado del cobre. En el mismo se prevé que la demanda internacional de cobre refinado en 2016 aumente en un 1,5%, a 22 millones de toneladas. La mayor demanda provendrá de China y EE.UU, donde se espera que pare este año aumente en un 2,5%, a 10.34 millones de toneladas y un 2,2%, a 1,82 millones, respectivamente. Las previsiones del IWCC también sugieren que el mercado del cobre refinado debería en general estar bastante equilibrado en 2016 y 2017.

En el sector energético, los precios rebotaron durante el mes pasado, habiendo registrado el WTI y la calefacción apreciaciones de doble dígito. Históricamente, nunca ha habido un incremento del precio del crudo durante la temporada veraniega de conducción de automóviles, en la cual la demanda de destilados aumenta. Es por ello que, al estar estos precios sobre los máximos de sus rangos recientes, se necesita constatar un nuevo hecho para que tomen un nuevo impulso en un mercado donde la oferta mundial ya es excesiva de por sí. Si bien la producción de crudo de Estados Unidos cayó al nivel más bajo desde septiembre de 2014, los inventarios de crudo estadounidenses son los terceros más altos de la historia. La Administración de Información de Energía (AIE) ha advertido recientemente que " los elevados niveles de inventarios continuarán hasta fines de 2016".

La volatilidad sigue siendo elevada y los precios oscilan alrededor de los $45-50. Es probable que a corto plazo estén bajo presión, antes de que surjan indicios más sólidos de una reducción de la oferta que reimpulsen la tendencia alcista hacia fin de año.

Perspectivas por sector

0%

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tin

g O

il

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I O

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Oil

Ca

rbo

n

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soli

ne

Na

tura

lG

as

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Su

ga

r

Le

an

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gs

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yb

ea

ns

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ffee

Co

rn

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coa

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eat

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tto

n

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ttle

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diu

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um

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ME

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(LM

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Posicionamiento Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions1

Source: Bloomberg

Inventarios Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories2

Dinámica de curvas Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields3

Source: Bloomberg

Indicadores técnicos Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 200 day moving av. (dma)4

Source: Bloomberg

1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month.

2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %).

3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on May 13, 2016.

4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 200 day moving average on May 13, 2016. 3

El USDA prevé un aumento de los inventarios mundiales de trigo, para 2015/16, de 3,7 millones de toneladas. La estimación de inventarios para 2016/17 es mayor a la de 2015/16.

Los inventarios de estaño crecieron debido a que el tramo final de su curva de los futuros pasó a contango.

Los inventarios de calefacción son los únicos dentro del sector de materias primas energéticas que han caído durante los últimos tres meses. De todos modos, de cara a un período de aumento de inventarios, los inversores deberían ser más precavidos respecto a nuevas subidas de precio. Si bien los precios del crudo aumentaron gracias al primer declive de inventarios en cinco semanas, aún yacen en niveles extremos.

Source: Bloomberg

El contango en el tramo final de la curva de los futuros sobre maíz aumentó para generar un rolo negativo del 2.2%, desde el 0.93% de un mes antes.

La mayoría de las curvas de los futuros sobre metales industriales se mantienen muy chatas. El máximo contango que se encuentra en los futuros vigentes se da en el caso del aluminio, el cual marca un rolo negativo del 0.57% (menor al -0.16% de un mes atrás). La curva de los futuros sobre cobre vigentes ha pasado a marcar una backwardation generando un rolo del 0.05%; en abril marcó un contango con un rolo del -0.37%.

La mayoría de las curvas de los futuros sobre energía también aumentó durante el mes pasado. El cambio más notorio fue en el gas natural, cuya curva pasó a contango debido a factores estacionales. En el caso de la curva del WTI, se constató un leve aplanamiento.

El café, el maíz, la soja y el azúcar se están todos negociando por encima de sus respectivas medias móviles diarias (MMD) de 200 y 50 períodos, lo que sugiere un cambio de sentimiento al alza en estos mercados.

El precio de los futuros sobre estaño y zinc se negocian por encima de sus MMDs de 50 y 200 períodos por tercer mes consecutivo, lo que marca un fuerte momentum. El posicionamiento neto corto especulativo está presionando a la baja al precio del cobre. Los futuros vigentes sobre cobre de la LME y el COMEX se negocian por debajo de sus MMDs de 50 y 200 períodos.

La estructura técnica alcista del WTI y Brent ayudó a que sus precios subieran el mes pasado (con la MMD-50 superando la MMD-200). A excepción del gas natural y el carbón, los precios en el sector permanecen por encima de sus medias de largo plazo, lo que resalta el optimismo de los inversores.

Análisis técnico

El posicionamiento neto especulativo en los futuros sobre algodón pasó de ser neto corto a neto largo. El mismo yace ahora cerca de su media histórica de 5 años, tras haber estado dos desviaciones estándares por debajo durante buena parte de marzo y abril.

El posicionamiento neto especulativo en la mayoría de los futuros sobre metales se ha incrementado este mes, en particular el del aluminio y el níquel, ubicándose ahora por encima de su media de largo plazo. Si bien esto sugiere que el optimismo de los inversores ha mejorado, aún no es del todo convincente.

Los futuros sobre calefacción y crudo Brent fueron los únicos contratos de materias primas que registraron un aumento de su posicionamiento neto largo durante el mes pasado. Si bien en el caso del primero el posicionamiento es modesto, permaneciendo por debajo de su media de 5 años, el del Brent parece ser mayor. El posicionamiento neto especulativo en los futuros sobre Brent también yace dos desviaciones estándares bastante por encima de la media de 5 años y su precio podría caer rápidamente en caso de que haya una rápida liquidación de posiciones.

Buena parte de la recuperación del precio del paladio se ha debido a un cierre de cortos, los cuales se redujeron en un 39% a medida que el criterio de los inversores se alineó con el de los fundamentos del metal.

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Tin

Wheat

WTI Oil

Lead

Natural Gas

Gasoline

Sugar

Soybeans

Heating Oil

Copper - LME

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Gasoline

Sugar

Soybeans

WTI Oil

Lean Hogs

Copper

Nickel

Live Cattle

Feeder Cattle

Carbon

% < 200 dma % > 200 dma

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

Live Cattle

Feeder Cattle

Copper (LME)

Copper

Carbon

Sugar

Wheat

Corn

Lean Hogs

Natural Gas

Contango Backwardation

-200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400%

Cotton

Corn

Palladium

Soybeans

Cocoa

Brent Oil**

Soybean Oil

Feeder Cattle

Copper (LME)

Coffee

4 23 42 61 4 3

Energy Energy

WTI Oil 46 10.7% 57.0% 13.4% -23.6% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -1.5% -1.5% -2.9% -6.2%

Brent Oil 48 8.3% 43.4% 9.7% -28.4% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE -0.6% -1.1% -0.1% -2.0%

Natural Gas 2.1 2.9% 6.6% -11.2% -28.6% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -6.6% -6.3% -3.9% -3.4%

Gasoline 1.6 3.8% 52.2% 28.2% -22.2% Gasoline USd/gal. NYMEX -0.5% -0.6% -0.9% -19.2%

Heating Oil 1.4 10.9% 31.2% 1.6% -30.0% Heating Oil USd/gal. NYMEX -0.6% -0.7% -0.7% -1.2%

Carbon 5.8 5.6% 15.6% -30.4% -23.6% 5 Carbon EUR/MT ICE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Agriculture Agriculture

Wheat 4.7 0.8% 1.6% -6.2% -3.3% Wheat USd/bu. CBOT -2.1% -2.3% -1.3% -1.0%

Corn 3.8 2.3% 6.5% 6.6% 7.3% Corn USd/bu. CBOT -2.2% -0.4% -0.9% -1.3%

Soybeans 10.6 10.4% 20.9% 22.8% 8.2% Soybeans USd/bu. CBOT -0.9% -0.8% -0.9% -0.3%

Sugar 0.2 19.5% 27.3% 11.3% 29.2% Sugar USd/lb. NYBOT -1.5% -2.2% -2.0% 0.2%

Cotton 0.6 -1.6% 2.9% -1.7% -7.8% Cotton USd/lb. NYBOT -1.1% -0.3% 0.6% 0.2%

Coffee 1.3 5.8% 11.5% 14.8% -4.2% Coffee USd/lb. NYBOT -1.0% -0.8% -1.5% -1.8%

Soybean Oil 0.3 -5.3% 1.2% 19.0% -2.8% Soybean Oil USd/lb. CBOT -1.0% -0.8% -0.8% -0.7%

Cocoa 2,961 1.5% 4.7% -11.5% -1.3% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT -0.2% -0.9% -1.2% -1.4%

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals

Aluminum 1,517 -2.0% 1.3% 2.6% -18.0% Aluminum USD/MT LME -0.6% -0.5% -0.2% -0.3%

Copper 2.1 -4.3% 2.3% -4.3% -29.7% 4 Copper USd/lb. COMEX 0.0% -0.1% -0.4% -0.3%

Copper (LME) 4,637 -4.4% 2.9% -4.0% -27.7% 3 Copper (LME) USD/MT LME 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Zinc 1,880 0.2% 9.9% 17.3% -19.6% Zinc USD/MT LME -0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1%

Nickel 8,600 -3.9% 10.4% -8.4% -38.6% Nickel USD/MT LME -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

Lead 1,706 -2.6% -8.2% 6.6% -15.1% 6 Lead USD/MT LME 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0%

Tin 16,657 -2.6% 7.4% 12.8% 6.3% Tin USD/MT LME -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

Precious Metals Precious Metals

Gold 1,273 2.1% 2.7% 17.7% 4.5% Gold USD/t oz. COMEX -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0%

Silver 17.1 4.8% 8.4% 20.5% -0.5% 7 Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2%

Platinum 1,052 5.0% 9.8% 21.8% -8.6% 9 Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0%

Palladium 592 9.2% 12.4% 9.9% -25.0% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

Livestock Livestock

Live Cattle 1.2 -6.6% -5.0% -5.5% -18.8% 1 Live Cattle USd/lb. CME 4.0% 2.4% 8.6% 0.6%

Lean Hogs 0.8 15.5% 16.5% 40.2% -5.6% Lean Hogs USd/lb. CME -6.2% -5.5% -10.3% -7.6%

Feeder Cattle 1.5 -5.0% -2.0% -16.0% -32.8% 2 Feeder Cattle USd/lb. CME 0.5% 0.1% 3.3% 0.4%Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Energy Energy

WTI Oil 362,159 300,028 349,788 294,340 384,799 6 Oil - US 541,294 33% 1% 7% 11%

Brent Oil** 176,801 74,940 225,161 -10,546 167,634 Oil - OECD Europe** 357 11% - -1% 5%

Natural Gas -135,841 -148,158 -144,869 -213,001 -240,150 5 Natural Gas - DOE 2,754 40% 11% 2% -31%

Gasoline 68,869 63,660 73,410 58,351 58,588 Gasoline - DOE 238,068 13% -1% -8% 11%

Heating Oil 12,767 1,253 8,782 -10,971 -10,764 Heating Oil - DOE 12,055 -42% -4% -24% -24%

Agriculture Industrial Metals

Wheat -80,845 -26,446 -122,852 -32,545 -82,399 Aluminum 2,877,587 -41% -6% -5% -12%

Corn 134,391 148,597 -60,198 21,695 -57,655 Aluminum - LME 2,584,400 -43% -5% -6% -13%

Soybeans 246,150 93,948 123,113 -36,542 13,064 Aluminium - SHFE 293,187 -4% -9% -1% 5%

Sugar 262,049 80,599 190,534 202,486 75,423 Copper 506,155 -6% -12% -4% -2%

Cotton 37,139 35,268 -3,346 41,764 56,660 Copper - LME 156,675 -52% 7% -29% -39%

Coffee 6,790 2,259 11,462 -19,878 -5,256 Copper - SHFE 286,210 79% -21% 19% 45%

Soybean Oil 92,729 12,772 121,268 13,500 69,529 Copper - COMEX 63,270 21% -11% -7% 1%

Cocoa 55,020 38,048 28,241 53,734 48,626 Nickel - LME 412,344 61% -4% -6% -1%

Industrial Metals5 Zinc 642,208 -40% -7% -6% -13%

Copper (COMEX) -22,808 -9,789 -22,309 -27,412 8,607 Zinc - LME 390,375 -51% -7% -15% -30%

Copper (LME) 23,995 23,995 32,856 24,890 74,128 Zinc - SHFE 251,833 -4% -6% 14% 42%

Aluminum 147,922 147,922 122,150 148,062 203,074 Lead 200,452 -35% 10% 5% 34%

Nickel 13,691 13,691 10,410 1,164 14,736 Lead - LME 176,075 -30% 8% -3% 30%

Zinc 60,863 60,863 63,867 26,382 118,344 Lead - SHFE 24,377 -57% 19% 174% 74%

Lead 23,870 23,870 22,904 24,832 36,662 Tin6 10,913 -13% 94% 131% 63%

Tin 2,091 2,091 2,400 2,779 1,412 Tin - LME 6,425 -44% 33% 50% 19%

Precious Metals Tin - SHFE 4,488 354% 477% 927% 252%

Gold 293,409 130,133 242,724 64,776 82,733 Agriculture

Silver 80,275 24,288 62,746 36,003 27,611 Wheat - USDA 257,340 32.5% 7.6% 7.7% 13.2%

Platinum 39,518 29,504 29,912 29,737 25,804 Corn - USDA 207,040 48% -0.9% -0.8% -2.3%

Palladium 7,442 15,161 3,160 10,285 18,458 Soybeans - USDA 68,210 13% -13.7% -15.2% -18%

Livestock Sugar - USDA 32,828 -8% -13.1% -13.1% -17%

Live Cattle 30,684 71,017 36,115 1,580 105,481 Cotton - USDA 96,480 31% -5.6% -7.3% -9.1%

Lean Hogs 64,048 48,078 62,961 13,922 29,879 Coffee - USDA 36,692 1% - - 16%

Feeder Cattle 2,106 6,536 2,759 793 8,552 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,670 -7% -1.9% 1% -1%

Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities1Performance of front month futures from 13 May 15 (1 Year), 13 Nov 15 (6 Month), 13 Feb 16 (3 Month) and 13 Apr 16 (1 Month) to 13 May 16.

2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 16 Feb 16 (3 Month), 13 Apr 16 (1 Month), 06 May 16 (1 Week), 13 May 16.

4

1 Month ROLL YIELDS2 13-May

Summary Tables

6 Month6 Month 5 Yr Average 1 Month 3 MonthINVENTORY LEVELS4 Current

1 Month6 Month 1 WeekExchangeUnit 3 Month

3Net positions in number of contracts.

4Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory. For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report

month over the past 5 years. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 2 month lag with current = Dec 2015.5All Industrial metals positioning data

(excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 28th July 14 (first available date). 6

SHFE started reporting inventory data from April 2015

1 YearCurrent

Current 1 Year

5 Yr Average

1 MonthCFTC NET

POSITIONING3

PRICES1 3 Month

Agriculture

Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities




Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 5All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Cocoa

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

-1x stdv

-2x stdv

1x stdv

2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Coffee

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/lb.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Corn

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/bu.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100M

ay-

11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Cotton


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Soybean Oil


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Soybeans


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Sugar


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Wheat


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Energy



Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 6All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9

3.4

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Heating Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Natural Gas

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-14

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Gasoline

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

25

45

65

85

105

125

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Brent Oil

ICE managed money net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

Average*

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-12

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

WTI Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

10

20

30

Copper (COMEX)

Industrial Metals





Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. LME non-commercial net positions averaged from 28th

July 14 and respective graphs represent daily data. 7All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Aluminum

LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

Series average since Jul 2014

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Copper (COMEX)


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Nickel


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv


1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140J

ul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Zinc


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv


1,550

1,650

1,750

1,850

1,950

2,050

2,150

2,250

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Lead


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv


12,500

14,500

16,500

18,500

20,500

22,500

24,500

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-15

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Tin


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv


4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-15

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Copper (LME)


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv


Precious Metals



Livestock




Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 8All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Lean Hogs


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Live Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Feeder Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

49

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Silver

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Gold


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35M

ay

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-16

Palladium


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

1,750

1,950

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-14

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Platinum


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Agriculture

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities




Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 2015/2016 estimates 9

Inventories

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Corn - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2016

% chg in projections vs. previous = -4.9%

0

50

100

150

200

250

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

Coffee - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2016


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Cotton - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2016 % chg in projections vs.

previous = -7.1%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Soybeans - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2016


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Soybeans - Ending Stocks Annual data in , from 1980 to 2016

chg in projections vs. previous = -10.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

608

0/8

18

1/8

28

2/8

38

3/8

48

4/8

58

5/8

68

6/8

78

7/8

88

8/8

98

9/9

09

0/9

19

1/9

29

2/9

39

3/9

49

4/9

59

5/9

69

6/9

79

7/9

89

8/9

99

9/0

00

0/0

10

1/0

20

2/0

30

3/0

40

4/0

50

5/0

60

6/0

70

7/0

80

8/0

90

9/1

010

/11

11/1

212

/13

13/1

414

/15

15/1

6

Coffee - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln bags (60 kg), from 1980 to 2016


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Cotton - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln 480 lb Bales, from 1980 to 2016


0

50

100

150

200

250

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Corn - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2016





Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 2015/2016 estimates 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Wheat - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2016

% chg in projections vs. previous = 7.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

Sugar - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1998 to 2016

% chg in projections vs. previous = -13%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Soybean Oil - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1980 to 2016


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Wheat - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2016

chg in projections vs. previous = 18.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

508

0/8

18

1/8

28

2/8

38

3/8

48

4/8

58

5/8

68

6/8

78

7/8

88

8/8

98

9/9

09

0/9

19

1/9

29

2/9

39

3/9

49

4/9

59

5/9

69

6/9

79

7/9

89

8/9

99

9/0

00

0/0

10

1/0

20

2/0

30

3/0

40

4/0

50

5/0

60

6/0

70

7/0

80

8/0

90

9/1

010

/11

11/1

212

/13

13/1

414

/15

15/1

6

Sugar - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2016


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

16/1

7

Soybean Oil - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2016


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

198

119

82

198

319

84

198

519

86

198

719

88

198

919

90

199

119

92

199

319

94

199

519

96

199

719

98

199

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

010

20

112

012

20

132

014

20

152

016

Cocoa - Inventory Annual data in '000 metric tons, from 1981 to 2016

Industrial Metals


Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Livestock


11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Tin Inventory

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes) SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data in '000 MT, from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Lead Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data, from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

230

280

330

380

430

480

530

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-16

Ap

r-16

Nickel Inventory Daily data in '000 MT, from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Zinc Inventory



2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Aluminum Inventory



100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Copper Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)


640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

Lean Hogs Inventory Annual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2016

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

80

/81

81/

82

82

/83

83

/84

84

/85

85

/86

86

/87

87

/88

88

/89

89

/90

90

/91

91/

92

92

/93

93

/94

94

/95

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01/

02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10/1

111

/12

12/1

313

/14

14/1

515

/16

Live Cattle Inventory Annual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2016

Energy

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag. 12

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

US Oil Inventory

5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2015 2016

Weekly data in mln barrels, from May 11 to May 16

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Gasoline Inventory



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Natural Gas Inventory


Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from May 11 to May 16

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Heating Oil Inventory



280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory


Monthly data in mln barrels, from Mar 06 to Feb 16

Agriculture





13

Commodities Front Month Futures and Trading Volumes

$2,600

$2,700

$2,800

$2,900

$3,000

$3,100

$3,200

$3,300

$3,400

$3,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Cocoa Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)

Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Coffee Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/lb., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$3.4

$3.6

$3.8

$4.0

$4.2

$4.4

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Corn Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/bu., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$0.55

$0.57

$0.59

$0.61

$0.63

$0.65

$0.67

$0.69

-200

300

800

1,300

1,800

2,300M

ay

15

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Cotton Front Month Futures Price



$0.25

$0.27

$0.29

$0.31

$0.33

$0.35

$0.37

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price



$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

Soybeans Front Month Futures Price



$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

$0.16

$0.17

$0.18

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Ma

y 15

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Sugar Front Month Futures Price



$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

$6.5

0

1,0002,000

3,000

4,000

5,0006,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Wheat Front Month Futures Price



Energy




Carbon


Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 14

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

$75

$85

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$2.7

$2.9

$3.1

$3.3

$3.5

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Gasoline Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$0.5

$0.7

$0.9

$1.1

$1.3

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

-$2,000

$3,000

$8,000

$13,000

$18,000

$23,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

4.5 €

5.0 €

5.5 €

6.0 €

6.5 €

7.0 €

7.5 €

8.0 €

8.5 €

9.0 €

-€50

€50

€150

€250

€350

€450

€550

€650

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

Carbon Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in EUR/MT, from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

Industrial Metals






$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000

$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Aluminum Front Month Futures Price



$13,000$14,000$15,000$16,000$17,000$18,000$19,000$20,000$21,000$22,000$23,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Tin Front Month Futures Price



$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000

$10,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

Zinc Front Month Futures Price



$7,000

$9,000

$11,000

$13,000

$15,000

$17,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Nickel Front Month Futures Price



$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price



$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Ma

y 15

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Lead Front Month Futures Price



$4,200

$4,700

$5,200

$5,700

$6,200

$6,700

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000

$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) 200 dma (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS)


Precious Metals



Livestock




$1.30

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

$2.30

$2.50

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$0.42

$0.52

$0.62

$0.72

$0.82

$0.92

$1.02

-$200

$300

$800

$1,300

$1,800

$2,300

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price



$1.14

$1.24

$1.34

$1.44

$1.54

$1.64

$1.74

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$790

$890

$990

$1,090

$1,190

$1,290

$1,390

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

Platinum Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/t oz., from 13 May 15 to 13 May 16

$420

$470

$520

$570

$620

$670

$720

$770

$820

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

Ma

y 15

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Palladium Front Month Futures Price



$1,040

$1,090

$1,140

$1,190

$1,240

$1,290

$1,340

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Gold Front Month Futures Price



$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Ja

n 1

6

Feb

16

Ma

r 16

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 16

Silver Front Month Futures Price



Agriculture





Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 17

Futures Curves

$2,700

$2,750

$2,800

$2,850

$2,900

$2,950

$3,000

$3,050

$3,100

$3,150

$3,200

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10Maturity (Month)

Cocoa Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Coffee Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$3.5

$3.6

$3.7

$3.8

$3.9

$4.0

$4.1

$4.2

$4.3

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

Maturity (Month)

Corn Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/bu.

$0.54

$0.56

$0.58

$0.60

$0.62

$0.64M

1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

Maturity (Month)

Cotton Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$0.29

$0.30

$0.31

$0.32

$0.33

$0.34

$0.35

$0.36

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

Maturity (Month)

Soybean Oil Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$9$9$9$9$9

$10$10$10$10$10$11$11$11

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

Maturity (Month)

Soybeans Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/bu.

$0.128$0.133$0.138$0.143$0.148$0.153$0.158$0.163$0.168$0.173$0.178

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

Maturity (Month)

Sugar Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$4.4

$4.6

$4.8

$5.0

$5.2

$5.4

$5.6

$5.8

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

Maturity (Month)

Wheat Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/bu.

Energy




Carbon



$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Brent Oil Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/bbl.

$26

$29

$32

$35

$38

$41

$44

$47

$50

$53

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

WTI Oil Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/bbl.

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$2.7

$2.9

$3.1

$3.3M

1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Natural Gas Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MMBtu

$0.9

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Gasoline Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/gal.

$0.88

$0.98

$1.08

$1.18

$1.28

$1.38

$1.48

$1.58

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Heating Oil Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/gal.

4.5 €

4.7 €

4.9 €

5.1 €

5.3 €

5.5 €

5.7 €

5.9 €

6.1 €

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

Maturity (Month)

Carbon Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

EUR/MT

Industrial Metals






$1,420

$1,470

$1,520

$1,570

$1,620

$1,670

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Aluminum Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

$1,600

$1,650

$1,700

$1,750

$1,800

$1,850

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Lead Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M2

0

M2

1

M2

2

M2

3

M2

4

M2

5

Maturity (Month)

Copper (COMEX) Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$4,200$4,300$4,400$4,500$4,600$4,700$4,800$4,900$5,000$5,100$5,200

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Copper (LME) Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

$13,000

$13,500$14,000

$14,500

$15,000$15,500

$16,000$16,500$17,000$17,500

$18,000

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Tin Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

$8,000

$8,200

$8,400

$8,600

$8,800

$9,000

$9,200

$9,400

$9,600

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Nickel Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

$1,400$1,450$1,500$1,550$1,600$1,650$1,700$1,750$1,800$1,850$1,900$1,950

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M2

1

M2

3

M2

5

M2

7

M2

9

M3

1

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Zinc Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/MT

Precious Metals



Livestock




$13

$14

$14

$15

$15

$16

$17

$17

$18

$18

$19

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

Maturity (Month)

Silver Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/t oz.

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$1,250

$1,300

$1,350

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M2

0

Maturity (Month)

Gold Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/t oz.

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Platinum Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/t oz.

$480

$510

$540

$570

$600

$630

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Palladium Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USD/t oz.

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

Maturity (Month)

Lean Hogs Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9Maturity (Month)

Live Cattle Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

$1.55

$1.60

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Feeder Cattle Futures

13 May 16 06 May 16 13 Apr 16 16 Feb 16

USd/lb.

C

Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained

CALENDAR

ETF Securities - Recent Research Notes16-Feb-16 Nitesh Shah Commodity Research - Opportunity to short agriculture with La Niña

23-Feb-16 James Butterfill/Aneeka Gupta Equity Research - Midstream MLPs: The Master of Yields interrupted by negative sentiment

01-Mar-16 Edith Southammakosane Asset Alloction Research - An alternative proposal to the Yale endowment model

08-Mar-16 Martin Arnold FX Research - A global recession is just hype

15-Mar-16 Nitesh Shah Commodity Research - Sentiment turns more positive for industrial metals

22-Mar-16 James Butterfill/Aneeka Gupta Equity Research - Agriculture stocks on the cusp of recovery

05-Apr-16 Morgane Delledonne Fixed Income Research - Euro IG corporate spreads have room to tighten

12-Apr-16 Edith Southammakosane Asset Allocation Research - Time to increase allocation into emerging market equities

26-Apr-16 Martin Arnold FX Research - EU referendum unveils Sterling opportunity

04-May-16 Nitesh Shah Commodity Research - Oil rally has legs

10-May-16 James Butterfill/Aneeka Gupta Equity Research - The good, bad and ugly of Chinese markets

17-May-16 Morgane Delledonne Fixed Income Research - US HY credit market (ex- Energy, Mining and Metals sectors) remains attractive

ETF Securities - Past Issues of Commodity Monthly Monitor

Nov - Dec 2015 Research Team Commodities at a turning point

Jan - Feb 2016 Research Team Global investor sentiment weighs on commodities

Feb - Mar 2016 Research Team Global investor sentiment at a turning point…

Mar - April 2016 Research Team Metals to perform on weaker USD and rising rates

Apr - May 2016 Research Team Policy error and cyclical recovery to benefit commodities

The research notes are for qualified investors only.

Key ReportsCurrent Next release

10-May-16 10-Jun-16 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

10-May-16 07-Jun-16 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

13-May-16 13-Jun-16 OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report

12-May-16 14-Jun-16 IEA IEA Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER

Important Information

The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities' products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment

decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1, 0, or 1 depending onwhether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not available or not relevant,scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables butshould not be viewed as predictor of performance.

The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow:- price vs. 200 days moving average: 1 when price is above 200dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 200dma and return is negative, 0 otherwise- % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, 0 when no change- % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, 0 when no change- roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, 0 when no change

http://click.etfsecurities.eu/?qs=9284c0cd26a1f28f3539a2670f6b1a5e8dd813caaec19ab222c630e73f997345

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http://image.etfsecurities.eu/lib/fe9e13707566057f70/m/2/2016+03_Equity+Agricultural+stocks+Monthly+JB1.pdf?utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ResearchNote

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http://image.etfsecurities.eu/lib/fe9e13707566057f70/m/2/2016+04_AAM_DM+EM+relative+trades.pdf?utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ResearchNote

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http://image.etfsecurities.eu/lib/fe9e13707566057f70/m/2/US-HY-credit-market-Ex-Energy-Mining-and-Metals-sectors-remains-attractive.pdf?utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ResearchNote

http://image.etfsecurities.eu/lib/fe9e13707566057f70/m/2/2015.11_Commodity+Monthly+Monitor_final.pdf

http://image.etfsecurities.eu/lib/fe9e13707566057f70/m/2/2016.01_Commodity+Monthly+Monitor+Final.pdf?utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=CMM

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http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR May 2016.pdf

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

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Documents

Monitor mensual de materias primas · Resumen Martin Arnold, Director - FX & Macro Strategist Nitesh Shah, Director - Commodities Strategist Contenido Análisis del mercado de materias