09 (Janus) 1 1 , ?
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2 (Depression 2.0) ? Summary
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Summary
200720082009F2010F2011F20082009F2010F1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q
(YoY,%)5.1 2.2 -0.2 4.0 3.1 5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4 -4.2 -2.2 0.6 5.0 5.7
4.9 3.1 2.8 (QoQ,%)5.1 2.2 -0.2 4.0 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 -5.1 0.1 2.6
2.9 -0.5 0.6 1.8 1.3 -0.8 5.1 1.6 0.9 1.9 2.4 3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9 -2.0
0.9 1.6 3.3 3.6 1.2 1.0 1.6 5.1 0.9 -0.4 3.0 2.7 4.0 2.3 1.4 -3.7
-4.4 -0.8 0.3 3.6 4.1 3.1 2.7 2.3 4.2 -1.7 -1.6 4.6 4.3 -0.5 0.6
1.8 -7.3 -8.1 -2.7 -1.4 4.4 9.4 4.2 4.0 2.2 1.4 -2.1 3.2 3.4 3.7
-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6 1.6 3.7 2.5 4.5 6.0 2.5 4.0 2.0 8.7 -1.0 -9.4
6.8 5.3 2.0 2.0 4.2 -11.0 -20.8 -13.5 -7.5 3.8 14.9 7.7 4.1 2.5
12.6 5.7 -1.3 6.9 6.5 11.0 11.5 9.3 -6.9 -10.6 -3.9 0.9 8.5 11.7
7.5 5.3 4.0 11.7 3.7 -8.1 10.2 5.8 9.7 8.9 9.0 -11.2 -18.2 -13.7
-8.7 9.5 15.5 12.5 10.0 4.0 ()59.5 -64.1 402.2 182.0 97.5 -52.1
-1.3 -85.8 75.2 85.8 131.7 104.7 80.0 25.0 80.0 32.0 45.0 294.1
59.9 522.5 326.4 366.2 -12.2 57.2 -34.8 49.7 83.5 176.3 149.1 113.7
64.9 87.6 74.2 99.7 ()3714.9 4220.1 3640.9 4323.2 4633.9 994.4
1144.9 1150.0 930.7 744.1 906.9 949.9 1040.0 952.5 1097.3 1139.8
1133.6 (YoY,%)14.1 13.6 -13.7 18.7 7.2 17.4 23.1 27.0 -9.9 -25.2
-20.8 -17.4 11.7 28.0 21.0 20.0 9.0 ()3568.5 4352.7 3259.4 4183.1
4461.1 1060.5 1147.9 1229.0 915.3 714.2 737.2 848.0 960.0 932.0
1046.9 1119.3 1084.8 (YoY,%) 15.3 22.0 -25.1 28.3 6.6 28.9 30.5
42.8 -9.0 -32.7 -35.8 -31.0 4.9 30.5 42.0 32.0 13.0 146.4 -132.7
380.9 140.2 172.8 -66.1 -3.0 -79.0 15.4 29.9 169.7 101.9 79.4 20.4
50.5 20.5 48.8 2.5 4.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.8 4.8 5.5 4.5 3.9 2.8 2.0 2.3
2.4 2.7 3.0 3.7 (, SA)3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.8
3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 / ()936.1 1,259.5 1,130.0 1,120.0 1,180.0
990.4 1,046.0 1,206.9 1,259.5 1,383.5 1,273.9 1,185.9 1,130.0
1,090.0 1,050.0 1,080.0 1,120.0 / ()929.2 1,100.7 1,274.3 1,086.3
1,180.0 955.9 1,017.5 1,066.3 1,359.7 1,415.0 1,285.8 1,239.2
1,157.0 1,110.0 1,070.0 1,065.0 1,100.0 ()5.00 3.00 2.00 2.50 3.50
5.00 5.00 5.25 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 ()5.23
5.27 4.03 3.95 4.33 5.23 5.32 5.85 4.67 3.64 3.90 4.28 4.30 4.00
3.80 3.90 4.10 ()5.68 7.00 5.75 5.23 5.35 6.20 6.22 7.24 8.32 6.67
5.30 5.57 5.45 5.25 5.15 5.20 5.30 5.2 3.0 -1.1 3.1 4.2 ()4.50 0.25
0.25 0.50 1.50 2.25 2.00 2.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
0.25 0.50 / ()117.8 103.4 93.1 82.4 90.8 105.3 104.6 107.6 96.0
93.7 97.4 93.5 88.0 85.0 82.5 80.5 81.5 /()1.37 1.47 1.40 1.56 1.45
1.50 1.56 1.50 1.32 1.31 1.36 1.43 1.50 1.54 1.57 1.59 1.57 /()7.61
6.95 6.83 6.64 6.40 7.17 6.96 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.78
6.69 6.60 6.51 WTI72.3 99.6 62.8 86.8 69.8 97.7 123.9 118.6 58.7
43.1 59.7 68.2 80.0 85.0 90.0 92.0 80.0
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1) 3 08 11 9 100% vs. 09 I. 09
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2) = , IT 6 , 09 I. 09
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3) , 29 5 . 32% = , , , KOSPI 1,500p 09 I. 09
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3 ?: + + II. (Janus)
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, 4Q103Q102Q101Q10 (Q) + ( ) + + + + , II. (Janus)
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2010 09 -0.2%, 2010 4.0% 09 2010 () () () : vs. II. (Janus)
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1) : Single Dip 80 Double Dip 09 Single Dip 90 Single Dip 98
Single Dip 99 Double Dip 2010 () : vs. II. (Janus)
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2) : 2010 (), 1 75 1 () & 4 () : KOSPI 75%(57%), KOSPI
24%(3%) () : vs. II. (Janus)
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2010 , ? , 1 . 1 WSJ, Economic Forecasting Survey 2010 2~3 2011
() : II. (Janus)
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, 1936, double dip2000 , II. (Janus) () :
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: Best/Worst Scenario Best Scenario : + Worst Scenario : + ,
Best Scenario () : II. (Janus)
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2010 , 2010 GDP 10% , (, ) () : II. (Janus)
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: () WSJ : ? (41%), (27%), (22%) 70 80 MSCI () : II. (Janus)
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+ + 2 + + III. 1 1 , ? 2
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() () `(KOSPI)III. 1 1 , ?() : (+) : , ,
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() KOSPI : , , : , (, , ) , , PER 08 , , Double Dip 08 (08) (09)
(2010)III. 1 1 , ?
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10 DOW 1901 , KOSPI 1981 10 10 10 , 3~8 9~2 KOSPI 1990(-23.5%),
2000(-50.9%) DOW 1910 10 7 Decade III. 1 1 , ?
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PBR 2010 ROE 13.1% 00 ROE PBR 54% () 2010 PBR PBR 1.3390 PBR
+1sd 1.341.34 PBR 09 KOSPI PBR PBR III. 1 1 , ?
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PBR 1~1.34, KOSPI 1,410~1,890p PBR : 1~1.34 PBR (1.0) : PBR
(1.34) : 90 PBR +1sd . 2010 ROE 13.1% PBR KOSPI : 1,410~1,890p PBR
KOSPI III. 1 1 , ?
0.59(-2sd)0.84(-1sd)1.01.09(90)1.34(+1sd)1.59(+2sd)831 1,184
1,414 1,537 1,890 2,242 1788 1,122 1,340 1,456 1,790 2,124 2796
1,133 1,353 1,471 1,808 2,145 3804 1,144 1,367 1,485 1,826 2,167
4812 1,156 1,380 1,500 1,844 2,189 5820 1,167 1,394 1,515 1,862
2,210 6827 1,178 1,407 1,530 1,881 2,232 7835 1,190 1,421 1,544
1,899 2,253 8843 1,201 1,435 1,559 1,917 2,275 9851 1,213 1,448
1,574 1,935 2,296 10859 1,224 1,462 1,588 1,953 2,318 11867 1,235
1,475 1,603 1,971 2,339 12875 1,247 1,489 1,618 1,989 2,361
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07 09 12 I/B/E/S 12 PER PER 10.2, , , PER 06 PER 06 PER PER 28%
PER EPS III. 1 1 , ?
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, PER 2010 PER PER Driven Market PER PER PER Driven Market III.
1 1 , ?
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2010 (+) 25.8 09 10.4% 09 2010 2010 2010 1~2 70% IV.
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IT IT IT 2010 IT IT IT 9 IV.
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09 2010 3 73, 87 3 5 2 IV.
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BRICs 5.9% IV.
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2010 , , , 09 2010 IV.
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3~4 Spot 09 20% 2010 4 2010 , IV.
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(Green) 09, 2010 EPS 131.9%, 161.1% , 2010 5 3 , 10 IV.
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2010 09 291 2010 1) , 2) 4 3) , 4) : IV.
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(,,%,)Top PicksIV.
2010 2010 (60)PERPBREV/EBITDA1300593076.6 48.7 9.6 1.7 6.3 3.2
8.2 1.1 1,100,000 00538021.5 18.0 8.7 1.3 5.5 -10.3 -4.8 1.3
160,000 02353012.2 13.2 11.3 0.9 7.5 -14.2 -6.0 0.5 420,000
0018008.8 9.0 19.7 2.8 32.3 -12.6 9.1 0.4 350,000 00072032.2 39.1
12.1 2.1 9.9 -2.5 -7.1 1.3 88,000 005490POSCO83.1 40.8 10.8 1.4 6.1
-7.1 4.4 1.0 730,000 015760343.2 357.0 12.3 0.5 12.5 17.4 8.8 0.5
47,000 051910LG-11.6 -10.1 11.9 2.5 6.3 -7.7 -3.9 1.6 265,000
006400SDI189.5 48.4 19.9 1.2 10.1 -7.2 -1.4 1.2 185,000
002380KCC-26.5 -42.7 21.1 1.0 11.4 -2.0 0.6 0.7 470,000
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Top Picks IV.
. IT 2010 DRAM, M/S . DRAM, 40 . 2010 14.2 . 2009~2012 , , . ROE
(PBR 1.4) . , PB 2010 . 2010 , , / . . UAE (10), (100) 1 .
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Top Picks IV.
POSCO 2010 3 . POSCO 34% . , Finex 2011 2010 LG, , KPS, PBR .
Level Up LG 2 LCD , 2010 / SDI CRT PDP , 2 , AMOLED AMOLED , , SDI
2 , , ESS KCC . M/S 50% KCC . 2 / .
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: 11 : 1) 08 3 2010 1Q07 ~ 3Q09 IV.
2010 (%)()(%)PER()PBR()0235309,853 12.2 12.7 1.0 100
00538025,854 28.7 8.2 1.2 82 006120SK1,191 6.2 6.0 1.3 82
00027012,530 15.6 5.2 0.9 82 005180701 10.4 8.7 1.3 73 030000688
52.4 11.6 2.1 73
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: 2010, 2011 ROE , 2 10% : 2) ROE 09 10.8% 2010 13.3% 2011 14%
ROE 13.6% 2010 ROE = ()*()*( ) ROE : ( ) IV.
2010 ()(%)PER()PBR()ROE(%)(%)00066015,251 8.3 1.8 21.0 23.7
003570S&T592 24.6 8.6 0.8 9.3 12.3 007460183 23.0 6.7 0.8 11.9
10.8 036490798 29.8 13.4 3.2 26.9 10.4
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: ROIC, CAPEX/ 2010 ROIC : 3) ROIC CAPEX 2009 CAPEX 20% CAPEX
2010 ROIC ROIC CAPEX/ IV.
2010 ()(%)PER()PBR()ROIC(%)CAPEX/005490POSCO55,137 74.5 10.4 1.4
20.0 14.7 06476094 34.4 11.5 1.8 26.8 15.3 005930107,140 67.7 9.3
1.6 25.2 11.3 0002403,873 3.5 9.3 1.5 18.9 6.2 0468901,306 120.0
22.0 4.2 37.6 6.2
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Value & Growth IV.
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: Bloomberg1) G2(, ) , , , , 04 V.
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: 2) OECD 1 1 10 V.
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3) 4 2 9 75, 172 MSCI Key Level , 10 (= ) V.
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2009 12 2 , . . , . .
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