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Phn tch k thut Ngy: 27/02/2015

Nhn nh th trng: Khi lng suy gim khi th trng

tng im

Th trng tng im nhng khi lng giao dch suy gim trn sn HOSE v HNX, duy ch c

khi lng khp lnh trn ch s VN30 tng l do s t bin v khi lng ca c phiu

OGC. iu ny chng t mc d th trng tng im nhng lc mua vo l khng thc s

mnh khi cc ch s chng khon tin v vng khng c ca chnh n l 600-610 im trn

VNIndex, 87.4 im trn HNXIndex v 620-625 im trn VN30, v v vy, kh nng cc ch s

chng khon ph v cc vng khng c l khng cao.

Nhm ngn hng mc d i ln tr li trong phin ngy hm qua nhng vn cha thot c

tn hiu suy yu trong thi gian gn y, khi phn k gim gi lin tc xut hin v d bo cho

mt t iu chnh kh di v mnh. S iu chnh ca nhm ngn hng c th dn n s

iu chnh ca th trng chung.

Khi lng giao dch ca sn HOSE v trn ch s VN30 duy tr mc kh cao l nh khi

lng gia tng t bin ca c phiu OGC ln n hn 17 triu c phiu c khp trong

phin ngy hm qua. Trong khi KLGD khp lnh bnh qun ca m c phiu ny ch vo

khong 5,7 triu c phiu/ phin, do , nu tr ra phn chnh lch k trn th KLGD khp

lnh trn ch s VN30 vn thp hn phin trc. Tuy nhin, vic khi lng giao dch tng t

bin bn di khng c cho tn hiu tiu cc nhiu hn l tch cc v d bo cho kh nng

c phiu OGC nm gn vng nh ngn hn.

Vi vic nhm c phiu vn ho ln vn ang th hin tnh dn dt th trng th xu hng

tng di hn ca th trng vn cha thay i, tuy nhin, trong ngn hn th trng c th s

iu chnh kh su, v vy, vic cht li trong nhng phin hi phc l iu nn lm.

Khuyn ngh: Tip tc Bn

Vng khng c 600-610 ang t r sc mnh khi ch s VNIndex iu chnh

gim khi gp mc 600. Tuy nhin, mc 600 im ch l mc khng c yu hnh

thnh bi tm l, trong khi mc khng c mnh thc s ang nm ti mc 605

im v mc 610 im l vng nh c hnh thnh bi thng 11/2014. V vy,

th trng mc d c th s tip tc i ln trong 1 vi phin ti, nhng bn ra

khi th trng tng im hoc khi xut hin nhng t hi phc trong phin l

vic nn lm.

Phn tch k thut

Ngy: 27/02/2015

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So snh gia cc nhm vn ho

Stt Ch s Tng/Gim

1 VN30 0.71%

2 VNINDEX 0.69%

3 VNMID 0.62%

4 VNSML 0.48%

5 HNXINDEX 0.47%

Nhm VN30 vn ang th hin vai tr dn dt khi vn l mt trong nhng nhm tng trng mnh nht

th trng, nn tn hiu tch cc cho xu hng tng di hn ca th trng vn cha thay i.

Phn tch k thut

Ngy: 27/02/2015

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Phn tch ch s chng khon trong nc

VNIndex th ngy

Tng im nh tr li sau khi tht bi trong vic th vng khng c 600-610 im ln u tin, tuy nhin,

khi lng giao dch suy gim v cho thy lc mua l khng thc s mnh.

Nhiu kh nng ch s ny vn s c i ln thm mt vi phin ti nhm thu ht thm lc mua, nhng ch

s VNIndex nhiu kh nng s khng thot c vng 600-610 im khi m lc bn s gia tng mnh ti

vng 600-610 im v khin ch s ny iu chnh su.

Mt khi khng vt qua c vng khng c 600-610 im, ch s VNIndex s iu chnh gim v vng h

tr u tin 580 im v thm ch c th i v vng h tr tip theo 555 im.

Phn tch k thut

Ngy: 27/02/2015

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Ch s HNXIndex

Tng im nh tr li sau khi tht bi trong vic th mc khng c 87,4 im ln u tin. Khi lng

giao dch gim st v cho thy lc mua khng thc s mnh, v vy, mc khng c ny c th vn cha b

ph v trong ngn hn.

Nhiu kh nng ch s HNXIndex s i ln v th khng c 87,4 im thm mt ln na trc khi thc s

o chiu.

Phn tch ngnh

Tng/Gim ca cc nhm ngnh:

Stt Ngnh % Tng/Gim KLGD Khp lnh Stt Ngnh Tng/Gim KLGD Khp lnh

1 Banking 2.22% 6,608,813 12 Household 0.22% 4,962,270

2 Rubber 1.66% 84,500 13 Trading 0.22% 2,255,601

3 PST Service 1.33% 173,160 14 Food&Drink 0.13% 1,486,547

4 Agri 1.19% 117,904 15 Seafood 0.03% 1,250,899

5 Machinery 0.78% 498,996 16 ConMaterial -0.03% 1,300,085

6 Transport 0.73% 6,323,862 17 Accommodate -0.17% 678,228

7 Real Estate 0.69% 14,745,120 18 Plastic&Che -0.24% 1,834,667

8 Utilities 0.58% 1,208,278 19 ICT -0.38% 82,359

9 Mining&Oil 0.52% 6,395,004 20 E Equipment -0.50% 4,967,685

10 Securities 0.46% 6,732,105 21 Insurance -0.86% 458,156

11 Construct 0.25% 17,876,112 22 Metal Prod -1.12% 1,682,754

12 Pharma 0.22% 1,410,662

Phn tch k thut

Ngy: 27/02/2015

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Nhm ngnh Ngn hng

Tng im nhng khi lng giao dch khp lnh gim st, ngoi ra phn k gim gi tip tc hnh thnh

trn ch s ny, v vy, ch s chung ngnh ngn hng c kh nng ang nm kh gn mt vng nh

ngn hn. Khi m th trng tng im nh vo tr lc ca nhm ngn hng th mt s iu chnh mnh

ca nhm ny s khin th trng chung gim im su.

Theo di c phiu khuyn ngh

Danh sch c phiu khuyn ngh di hn

C phiu Ngy mua

Gi mua trung bnh

Gi ng ca gn nht Ngy bn Gi bn Li/L

DXG 6/01/2015 13.50 18.60 26/02/2015 18.60 37.78%

VHC 28/01/2015 39.7 43.4 26/02/2015 43.2 8.82%

BIC 28/01/2015 14.2 14.5 26/02/2015 14.5 2.11%

DRC 30/01/2015 59.5 62.0 26/02/2015 61.4 3.19%

VCB 6/02/2015 35.4 38.1 26/02/2015 38.7 9.32%

BID 6/02/2015 16.8 18.5 26/02/2015 18.7 11.31%

CTG 6/02/2015 17.4 18.8 26/02/2015 19.1 9.77%

DQC 6/02/2015 56.9 64.5 26/02/2015 63.5 11.60%

HT1 6/02/2015 19.7 19.7 26/02/2015 19.8 0.51%

BCC 6/02/2015 17.6 17.9 26/02/2015 18.0 2.27%

Phn tch k thut

Ngy: 27/02/2015

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Xc nhn ca Chuyn vin phn tch

Chng ti, cc tc gi ca bn bo co phn tch ny, xc nhn rng (1) cc quan im c trnh by trong bn bo co phn tch

ny l ca chng ti (2) chng ti khng nhn c bt k khon thu nhp no, trc tip hoc gin tip, t cc khuyn ngh hoc

quan im c trnh by .

Cng b thng tin quan trng

ACBS v cc t chc c lin quan ca ACBS (sau y gi chung l ACBS) c hoc s tin hnh cc giao dch theo giy php kinh

doanh ca ACBS vi cc cng ty c trnh by trong bn bo co phn tch ny. Danh mc u t trn ti khon t doanh chng

khon ca ACBS cng c th c chng khon do cc cng ty ny pht hnh. V vy nh u t nn lu rng ACBS c th c xung

t li ch bt k thi im no.

ACBS pht hnh nhiu loi bo co phn tch, bao gm nhng khng gii hn phn tch c bn, phn tch c phiu, phn tch nh

lng hoc phn tch xu hng th trng. Cc khuyn ngh trn mi loi bo co phn tch c th khc nhau, nguyn nhn xut pht

t s khc bit v thi hn u t, phng php phn tch p dng v cc nguyn nhn khc.

Tuyn b min trch

Bn bo co phn tch ny ch nhm mc ch cung cp thng tin. ACBS khng cung cp bt k bo m r rng hay ng no v

khng chu trch nhim v s ph hp ca cc thng tin cha ng trong bo co cho mt mc ch s dng c th. ACBS s khng

xem nhng ngi nhn bo co, khng nhn trc tip t ACBS, l khch hng ca ACBS. Gi chng khon c trnh by trong kt

lun ca bo co (nu c) ch mang tnh tham kho, ACBS khng ngh hoc khuyn khch nh u t tin hnh mua hoc bn bt

k chng khon no da trn bo co ny. ACBS, cc t chc lin quan ca ACBS, ban qun l, i tc hoc nhn vin ca

ACBS s khng chu trch nhim cho bt k (a) cc thit hi trc tip, gin tip; hoc (b) cc khon tn tht do mt li

nhun, doanh thu, c hi kinh doanh hoc cc khon tn tht khc, k c khi ACBS c thng bo v kh nng xy

ra thit hi hoc tn tht , pht sinh t vic s dng bn bo co phn tch ny hoc thng tin trong . Ngoi cc

thng tin lin quan n ACBS, cc thng tin khc trong bn bo co ny c thu thp t cc ngun m ACBS cho rng ng tin cy,

tuy nhin ACBS khng bo m tnh y v chnh xc ca cc thng tin . Cc quan im trong bo co c th b thay i bt k

lc no v ACBS khng c ngha v cp nht cc thng tin v quan im b thay i cho nh u t nhn bo co ny.

Bn bo co c cha ng cc gi nh, quan im ca chuyn vin phn tch, tc gi ca bo co. ACBS khng chu

trch nhim cho bt k sai st no ca h pht sinh trong qu trnh lp bo co, a ra cc gi nh, quan im. Trong

tng lai, ACBS c th s pht hnh cc bn bo co c thng tin mu thun hoc thm ch c ni dung kt lun i

ngc li hon ton vi bn bo co ny.

Cc khuyn ngh trong bn bo co ny hon ton l ca ring chuyn vin phn tch, cc khuyn ngh khng c a ra da

trn cc li ch ca bt k c nhn t chc no, k c li ch ca ACBS. Bn bo co ny khng nhm a ra cc li khuyn u t c

th, cng nh khng xem xt n tnh hnh v iu kin ti chnh ca bt k nh u t no, nhng ngi nhn bn bo co ny. V

vy cc chng khon c trnh by trong bn bo co c th khng ph hp vi nh u t. ACBS khuyn ngh rng nh u t nn

t thc hin nh gi c lp v tham kho thm kin chuyn gia khi tin hnh u t. Gi tr v thu nhp em li t cc khon

u t c th thay i hng ngy ty theo thay i ca nn kinh t v th trng chng khon. Cc kt lun trong bo co khng

nhm tin on thc t do n c th khc xa so vi thc t. Kt qu u t ca qu kh khng bo m cho kt qu u t ca

tng lai.

Bn bo co ny c th khng c pht hnh rng ri trn phng tin thng tin i chng hay c s dng, trch dn

bi cc phng tin thng tin i chng m khng c s ng trc bng vn bn ca ACBS. Vic s dng khng c s

ng ca ACBS s b xem l bt hp php v c nhn, t chc vi phm c ngha v bi thng mi thit hi, tn tht

(nu c) gy ra cho ACBS t s vi phm .

Trong trng hp, quc gia ca nh u t nghim cm vic phn phi hoc nhn cc bo co phn tch nh th ny th nh u t

cn hy bn bo co ny ngay lp tc, nu khng nh u t s hon ton t chu trch nhim.

ACBS khng cung cp dch v t vn thu v khng ni dung no trong bn bo co ny c xem nh c ni dung t vn thu. Do

khi lin quan n vn thu, nh u t cn tham kho kin ca chuyn gia da trn tnh hnh v iu kin ti chnh c th

ca nh u t.

Bn bo co ny c th cha ng cc ng dn n trang web ca bn th ba. ACBS khng chu trch nhim i vi ni dung trn

cc trang web ny. Vic a ng dn ch nhm mc ch to s thun tin cho nh u t trong vic tra cu thng tin do nh

u t hon ton chu cc ri ro khi truy cp cc trang web ny.

Copyright ACBS (2014). Mi quyn s hu tr tu v quyn tc gi l ca ACBS v/hoc chuyn vin phn tch. Bn bo co phn

tch ny khng c php sao chp, ton b hoc mt phn, khi cha c s ng bng vn bn ca ACBS.