[Nhóm 1]_Tiểu Luận Kinh Tế Lượng

TRNG I HC NGOI THNG C S 2 THNH PH H CH MINH

B mn: Kinh t lng

TI:

PHN TCH CC NHN T NH HNG N

GI THU MUA C PH TH CA VIT NAM

Ging vin : Phan Bi Khu i Kha lp: K51

Nhm 1

Thnh ph H Ch Minh Thng 3 nm 2015

2

DANH SCH NHM V PHN CNG CNG VIC

STT H V TN MSSV PHN CNG CNG VIC

1 Phan Th Cm Ly 1001017140 - Tm s liu

- Vit chng 2

- Tm ti liu tham kho

2 Trn Anh Bng 1201016036 - Vit chng 1


3 Nguyn ng Dng 1201016101 - Tm s liu

- Chy Eview, vit chng 4


4 V Phan Qunh Giao 1201016121

- Tm s liu

- Vit chng 2

- Tng hp bi vit.

4 Ng Th Thu Hoi 1201016168 - Tm s liu

- Chy Eview, vit chng 4


5 Trng Th Dim Kiu 1201016224 - Nhm trng

- Lm bng kho st, tm s

liu

- Vit chng 3

6 nh Th T Nhi 1201016353 - Tm ti liu tham kho

- Vit chng 1

- Vit thit lp m hnh

7 ng Vn Ngc 1201016318 - Vit chng 5


- H tr chy Eview

3

MC LC

CHNG I: TNG QUAN V TNH HNH C PH TI VIT NAM ........................................................... 4

1. ngha ca vic la chn ti .............................................................................................. 4

1.1 L do chn ti ................................................................................................................. 4

1.2 Li ch ti ....................................................................................................................... 5

2. Mc tiu v phm vi nghin cu .............................................................................................. 6

2.1 Mc tiu nghin cu ........................................................................................................... 6

2.2 Cu hi nghin cu ............................................................................................................. 6

2.3 Phm vi nghin cu ............................................................................................................. 6

CHNG II: C S L LUN V CC YU T NH HNG TI GI THU MUA C PH TH ............. 7

1. C s l lun .............................................................................................................................. 7

2. Thit lp m hnh tng qut ..................................................................................................... 8

2.1 Bin ph thuc .................................................................................................................... 8

2.2 Bin c lp ........................................................................................................................ 8

CHNG III: TNG QUAN V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU CC NHN T NH HNG TI GI

THU MUA C PH TH ......................................................................................................................... 12

1. Gi thit nghin cu: .............................................................................................................. 12

2. M hnh nghin cu xut: ................................................................................................. 12

3. Ngun s liu v cch thu thp s liu .................................................................................. 13

CHNG IV: KT QU NGHIN CU CC NHN T NH HNG N GI THU MUA C PH TH

.............................................................................................................................................................. 14

1. Bng thng k m t: .............................................................................................................. 14

2. Chy E-view v c kt qu nghin cu ............................................................................... 14

2.1 Kim tra cc bnh ............................................................................................................. 15

2.2 ngha, kt qu: ............................................................................................................... 19

CHNG V: GI CHNH SCH IU CHNH GI THU MUA C PH TH .............. 21

4

CHNG I: TNG QUAN V TNH HNH C PH TI VIT NAM

1. ngha ca vic la chn ti:

1.1 L do chn ti:

Nc Vit Nam nm trong vnh ai nhit i Bc bn cu. iu kin kh hu, a l

v t ai thch hp cho vic pht trin c ph em li cho c ph Vit Nam mt

hng v rt ring, c o. Hng nm kh hu nng lm ma nhiu. Lng ma phn

b u gia cc thng trong nm nht l nhng thng c ph sinh trng. Kh hu Vit

Nam chia thnh hai min r rt. Min kh hu pha nam thuc kh hu nhit i nng

m thch hp vi c ph Robusta. Min kh hu pha bc c ma ng lnh v c ma

phn thch hp vi c ph Arabica.

Ngoi ra, v t ai, Vit Nam c t bazan thch hp vi cy c ph c phn b

khp lnh th trong tp trung hai vng Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B, vi din

tch hng triu ha.

Nh vy cy c ph cn hai yu t c bn l nc v t th c hai yu t ny u c

Vit Nam. iu ny to cho Vit Nam li th m cc nc khc khng c c.

Bn cnh , Vit Nam vi dn s 80 triu ngi trong 49% l trong tui lao

ng. y l i ng lao ng kh di do, cung cp cho cc mi hot ng trong nn

kinh t quc dn. Sn xut c ph xut khu l mt qu trnh bao gm nhiu cng

on, bt u t khu nghin cu chon ging, gieo trng khu chm sc, thu mua, ch

bin, bo qun, bao gi , xut khu. Qu trnh ny i hi mt i ng lao ng kh

ln. c bit Vit Nam th vic ng dng my mc vo vic, sn xut ch bin c

ph cha nhiu v th li th v nhn cng c th gip nc ta gim rt nhiu chi ph

cho sn xut c ph xut khu t c th h gi thnh gip cho Vit Nam c th

cnh tranh c v gi so vi cc nc trn th gii.

5

Theo d tnh th vic sn xut c ph xut khu thu ht kh nhiu lao ng: 1 ha c

ph thu ht t 120.000- 200.000 lao ng. Ring nc ta hin nay c khong

700.000 800.000 lao ng sn xut c ph, c bit vo thi im chm sc, thu

hoch con s ny ln n hn 1 triu ngi. Hip hi c ph Vit Nam cho bit xut

khu c ph hai thng u nm 2014 c t 279.000 tn, thu v 519 triu USD, gim

13,7% v khi lng. u nm 2014, th trng c ph c nhng bin ng mnh, gi

c ph arabica tng ln mc cao k lc do Brazil (Nc xut khu c ph arabica ln

nht th gii) b hn hn nng, gii u c ghim hng nhm iu chnh gi.

Vic nm r cc nhn t nh hng n gi thu mua c ph th l mt cng vic ht

sc cn thit i vi nh nc, c nhng gii php hp l nhm kim sot gi c

ph, gip ngi dn thot ngho. V vy, nhm quyt nh chn vn nghin cu l:

Phn tch nhng nhn t nh hng n gi thu mua c ph th ca Vit Nam.

1.2 Li ch ti:

Ngoi tc dng gip chng ta tnh to, tng cng cc hot ng v tm thn v tr tu,

to s sng khoi tch cc v tm l, lm chng ta d tnh hn. Trong c ph cha cht

chng oxi ha v nhng cht dinh dng c li ci thin sc khe. C ph gip bn

bt mt mi v tng mc nng lng v trong c ph c cha cafein mt loi cht

truyn dn kch thch c ch thn kinh trong no, gip hng phn no b. Cht ny

gip ci thin tm trng, b nh, s cnh gic, tc phn ng v cc chc nng khc

ca no b. C ph cng cha nhng cht dinh dng thit yu: vitamin B5, B2,B3,

B1 V th c ph l mt thc ung ph bin rng ri v mang tnh ton cu. Trn

th gii hin nay, c hng t ngi ung c ph mi ngy.

Hi vng vi ti m nhm nghin cu s gip mt phn nh b vo vic tc ng ti

phng thc v k hoch kinh doanh ca ngi nng dn cng nh nhng doanh

nghip kinh doanh sn xut c ph trong vic ci thin gi thu mua c ph th nc

ta hin nay.

6

2. Mc tiu v phm vi nghin cu

2.1 Mc tiu nghin cu:

2.1.1 Mc tiu chung:

Tm hiu nhn t nh hng n gi thu mua c ph ca Vit Nam.

2.1.2 Mc tiu c th:

Tm hiu cc nhn t nh hng gi thu mua c ph ca Vit Nam.

nh gi cc nhn t chnh nh hng n gi thu mua c ph Vit Nam.

2.2 Cu hi nghin cu:

Li sut trong nc c nh hng nh th no ti gi thu mua c ph th Vit Nam?

Sn lng v gi c ph th trong nc c nh hng nh th no ti gi thu ma c

ph th Vit Nam?

Sn lng tn kho c ph ca M v t gi hi oi c nh hng nh th no ti gi

thu mua c ph th Vit Nam?

Thu nhp quc dn ca Vit Nam c nh hng nh th no ti gi thu mua c ph

th trong nc?

Tm hiu cc kin ngh cc chnh sch ci thin v pht trin gi thu mua c ph th

Vit Nam ?

2.3 Phm vi nghin cu

Khng gian:Th trng c ph Vit Nam v th gii

Thi gian: giai on 1999-2011.

7

CHNG II: C S L LUN V CC YU T NH HNG TI GI

THU MUA C PH TH

1. C s l lun

Anastasios Alexandridis (2010) c xut c tnh cc nhn t quyt nh ti gi

c ph nh sau: Pcf=f(Tt,Poil,Nc,Tg,Ls,CK,Ui).

Trong :

Tt l bin thi tit, nh hng rt ln ti vic trng v thu hoch c ph v c ph l

mt loi cy trng theo ma v.

Poil l bin du th, gi du cng nh hng rt ln ti gi c ph thng qua vic nh

hng gi u vo v phn bn nhin liu v vic vn chuyn.

Nc l bin ng cc, do vic chnh sch ca cc chnh ph u tin khuyn khch trng

ng cc m bo an ninh lng thc dn n l gim din tch canh tc c ph.

Tg l bin t gi hi i, lp lun rng t gi hi i nh hng n tt c cc giao

dch hng ha gia cc nc vi nhau v c ph khng phi l mt trng hp ngoi

l.

Ls l bin li sut, bin ny nh hng ti hng ha tn kho, nh hng ti vic u

t ca nh sn xut do c ph cng b nh hng.

CK l bin chng khon, s nh gi th trng ca S&P cng nh hng rt ln n

th trng c ph thng qua nhng thong tin m cng ty ny cung cp cho cc nh u

t.

Ui l tt c cc bin cn li cha c a vo m hnh, cn gi l sai s.

T trn c th d dng suy ra c rt nhiu yu t tc ng n gi c ph xut khu.

Mc d vy, s c rt nhiu s thiu st bin khi p dng vo th trng c ph Vit

Nam. Chng hn trong bi Cc nhn tc ng n gi hng ha c ph - cao su - thp

ca Ts. inh Th Hin - ng tc gi - th bin tng trng kinh t (TR) cng nh

hng ng k ti gi thu mua v tng trng cao th nhu cu hng ha s cao, ngoi

ra cn nu lm pht (Lf) cao th cc chi ph u vo cao dn n u ra cng cao, tc

l gi s cao.

8

Do , nu chng ta a thm cc bin v tng trng kinh t v lm pht vo m

hnh ca Anastasios Alexandridis th s ph hp hn i vi Vit Nam

Ngha l : Pcf=f(Tt,Poil,Nc,Tg,Ls,CK,TR, Lf,Ui).

2. Thit lp m hnh tng qut

2.1 Bin ph thuc (Pcf: gi thu mua c ph)

T cc c s l lun m tham kho t m hnh ca Anastasios Alexandridis, ta

thy bin Pcf l bin biu th gi c ph, chu s tc ng rt nhiu yu t, khng th

ly mt bin no i din cho s nh hng ti gi c ph c. Tuy nhin, nhn

chung c th chia cc bin ny lm 2 nhm, mt nhm thuc v yu t v m ( Tg,Ls

CK,TR,Lf), v mt nhm thuc yu t vi m (Tt, Poil,Nc). Nhm v m nh hng

gin tip ti gi c ph, tc ng n ton b ngnh kinh t cn nhm vi m tc ng

trc tip n vic sn xut v nh gi c ph.

2.2 Bin c lp

2.2.1 Mi quan h ca sn lng c ph v gi thu mua c ph ca Vit Nam.

Theo m hnh nhm cung c ph ca Takamasa A kiyama v Panayotis N. Varangis

(1989), sn lng c ph v gi c ph c kh nng tc ng ln nhau. Khi gi tng s

lm cho sn lng tng ln v s c nhiu ngi trng c ph hn. Nhng khi sn

lng tng ln s lm cho gi gim xung bi v ngun cung vt qu cu. Tuy nhin,

trong phm vi nghin cu ca ti ny, chng ta ch xem xt s tc ng ca sn

lng ln gi c v trong ngn hn sn lng bnh qun khng th gia tng c bi v

phi mt t 3 n 4 nm th cy c ph mi cho thu hoch.

2.2.2 Mi quan h gia cht lng c ph gi thu mua c ph

Hin nay, tuy Vit Nam c nh gi l mt nc xut khu c ph s mt th gii

nhng cht lng c ph Vit nam lun thp hn nhng nc khc nn Vit Nam phi

xut khu vi gi rt thp.

9

Cht lng c ph l yu t nh hng trc tip n gi c ph. Theo Vinacafe (2011)

cho bit th cht lng ca c ph vi Vit Nam cha cao do yu km v khu thu hi

v cng ngh ch bin lc hu. Hin ti, cht lng c ph xut khu ca Vit Nam

c quy nh da trn Tiu chun quc gia TCVN 4193:2005 do B Nng nghip v

Pht trin nng thn p dng. Tiu chun ny p dng cho c ph nhn: c ph ch

(Arabica) v c ph vi (Robusta).

C mt m hnh ca Steven M. Shugan(1984),Price-Quality Relationships, nghin

cu v mi quan h gia gi c v cht lng thng qua hnh vi ngi tiu dng trn

cc th trng khc nhau. Bi vit trn a ra cc phng trnh quan h gia gi c v

cht lng. Cui cng kt lun rng gi c v cht lng c quan h phi tuyn tnh,

gi c phn nh mc cht lng. Mi quan h gia gi c v cht lng rt quan

trng v c ngha. Tuy nhin, yu t cht lng li l yu t kh o lng v rt t

bi nghin cu v vn ny v kh a vo m hnh nghin cu. Do vy, bin cht

lng thng c a vo sai s (Ui).

2.2.3 Mi quan h gia li sut v gi c ph

Trong m hnh ca Anastasios Alexandridis (2010) nhc n li sut c mt nh

hng ng k n th trng nng nghip ni chung nh hng n chi ph gi hng

tn kho, nh hng n quyt nh u t (t ai, my mc v u vo mua hng v

nh hng n kinh doanh cc nhnh nng nghip). trong bi ca Ts. inh Th Hin

li sut tc ng thng qua s vay vn sn xut v kinh doanh c ph xut khu.

Jeffrey A. Frankel (2006) The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Real Commodity Prices

v Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose (2009), Determinants of Agricultural and

Mineral Commodity Prices cng cho kt qu tng t: t l li sut thc t l mt

yu t quyt nh quan trng v lng hng tn kho v gi c ca cc mt hng nng

sn v khong sn. Nghin cu cho rng li sut cao s lm gim nhu cu lu tr hng

ha, tng ngun cung cp dn n gim gi trn th trng ca hng ha. Khi t l li

sut thc t cao, tin chy ra khi cc mt hng, ging nh n chy ra khi ngoi t,

cc th trng mi ni v cc chng khon khc. Gim t l li sut thc t c tc

10

dng ngc li, lm gim chi ph i vi hng tn kho v nng cao gi c hng ha.

Khi t l li sut thc t thp, tin chy vo hng ha, chy vo ngoi t, th trng

mi ni, v cc chng khon.

Kt qu nghin cu cho ta thy mi quan h gia gi c hng ha v nh hng tiu

cc ca li sut i vi ch s gi c hng ho. iu nh hng tng t i vi c

ph.

2.2.4 Mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v gi c ph

Trong s lp lun ca Anastasios Alexandridis (2010) th t gi hi oi tc ng

n tt c cc giao dch hng ha nng nghip, trong c c ph, bi v c ph l

mt mt hng xut, nhp khu. Nh chng ta bit: t gi hi oi l gi ca ng

tin c tnh theo mt ng tin khc. T gi hi oi cng c hiu l t l trao i

gia hai ng tin ca hai quc gia khc nhau( http://www.cpv.org.vn). iu ny ch

ra rng hot ng ca th trng t gi hi i nh hng ln n gi trao i ca mt

hng c ph gia cc nc, do nh hng n sn xut v tiu th ca cc nc.

Vit Nam, t gi hi oi nh hng ti gi c ph, nh tc ng n cc hng ha

c bn khc. ng USD c dng hu ht cc giao dch thng mi hng ha ton

cu. S bin ng ca n gy nh hng rt ln n gi cc hng ha c bn. S gim

gi ca ng USD nh hng trc tip, khin gi c hng ha ca cc nc xut

khu cao hn i vi cc nc nhp khu lm hng ha gim sc cnh tranh. ng

thi, s xut hin xu hng u t nhiu hn vo nhng hng ha (vng v hng ha

c bn) do th trng chng khon(c phiu , tri phiu..) v bt ng sn gim sc

ht do b nh hng bi vic gim gi ng USD. T gi qua cng nh hng gin

tip ti s tng gi hng ha c bn, trong c c ph. Tuy nhin, tc ng ca t

gi hi oi n gi hng xut khu, y l gi c ph, thng c tr, nn cn

xem xt trong mt thi gian di.

2.2.5 Mi quan h gia tn kho c ph ti M v gi thu mua c ph.

11

Tnh hnh xut nhp khu ca Brazil, Vit Nam, Colombia nh hng rt ln n

ngun cung. y mnh kim ngch xut khu, ngun cung tng dn n gi c ph

gim. Tng t nhu cu nhp khu tng gim cng s nh hng n gi .Cu gim

gi gim. Cu tng gi tng.

Bo co tn kho ca c ph trn cc sn giao dch Th Gii s cho thy s thay i

ca ngun cung v ngun cu. Do th trng xut khu ln nht ca Vit Nam l M

v c nn y chng ta ch nghin cu sn lng tn kho ca th trng M.

12

CHNG III: TNG QUAN V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU CC NHN

T NH HNG TI GI THU MUA C PH TH

1. Gi thit nghin cu:

T cc c s l thuyt v m hnh tham kho trn, chng ta c th thy c rt nhiu

yu t nh hng ti gi c ph Vit Nam nht l trong bi cnh ton cu ha v hi

nhp kinh t th gii. Cc nhn t an xen v tc ng ln nhau nn ta kh xc nh

u l nhn t chnh, u l nhn t ph. Tuy nhin, qua tm hiu v nghin cu,

nhm chng em nhn thy c cc nhn t ni bt nh hng ti gi c ph Vit Nam.

Cc nhn t c chia lm 2 nhm. Nhm nhn t trong nc: iu kin t nhin, t

ai, kh hu, sn lng, li sut ngn hng, chnh sch nh nc, c ch qun l, php

lut Nhm nhn t ngoi nc: t gi hi oi, gi c ph th gii, th trng

chng khon, chnh tr Trong mi nhm, c cc nhn t sau y c cho l nh

hng nhiu v trc tip n gi c ph Vit Nam:

- Sn lng c ph: tc ng trc tip n gi c ph Vit Nam qua c ch cung cu.

Sn lng tng th gi c ph gim, sn lng gim th gi c ph tng.

- T gi hi oi: t gi hi oi thay i cho thy gi c ph Vit Nam t hn hay r

hn mt cch tng i so vi gi c ph th gii.

- Li sut ngn hng: li sut l gi c ca ng tin, nh hng n u t my mc

thit b, cng ngh vo ngnh c ph v t nh hng n gi c ph.

- Tn kho M: lng c ph tn kho cc nc nhp khu c th l M nh hng

trc tip n gi c ph Vit Nam thng qua quy lut cung cu. Lng c ph tn

kho M gim th lm cho cu c ph tng ln khin gi tng ln v ngc li.

2. M hnh nghin cu xut:

13

3. Ngun s liu v cch thu thp s liu

Cch thu thp s liu th cp t cc ngun c th sau:

Cc nhn t Ngun d liu ng dnz

Li sut Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam sbv.gov.vn

T gi hi oi Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam sbv.gov.vn

Sn lng c ph Sn giao dch c ph giacaphe.com

Tn kho M United States Department of

Agriculture

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu

http://doc.edu.vn

Gi thu mua

c ph

Nhn t trong

nc Nhn t nc

ngoi

Sn lng c ph

Li

sut ngn

hng

T gi hi oi

Tn kho

c

ph

m

GDP

(triu VND/

ngi)

Gi

c

ph

M

14

CHNG IV: KT QU NGHIN CU CC NHN T NH HNG N

GI THU MUA C PH TH

1. Bng thng k m t:

2. Chy E-view v c kt qu nghin cu

T s liu trn ta c kt qu hi quy t eview nh sau:

Gi thu

mua

caf th

( VND/

kg)

Gi

caf ti M ( VND

/ kg)

Sn lng thu

hoch ( tn)

Li

sut ngn

hng

( %/

nm)

Tn kho caf ti M ( tn)

1999 16750 20.710 500000 5,35 53.653,440 5,13

2000 8500 13.143 720000 9,00 220.414,020 5,61

2001 5450 9.028 900000 7,20 171.426,420 6,04

2002 7500 10.361 750000 7,44 161.291,400 6,63

2003 8500 13.096 720000 7,50 261.689,520 7,50

2004 11500 12.906 700000 7,50 270.563,100 8,62

2005 26400 18.609 752100 8,25 232.412,100 9,98

2006 26700 24.733 910000 8,25 222.645,960 11,42

2007 30000 31.229 915800 8,25 268.272,300 13,16

2008 32000 37.296 105580

0 8,50 264.955,080 16,88

2009 41000 28.884 105750

0 8,00 185.182,080 18,37

2010 38000 35.223 110050

0 9,00 102.319,680 21,84

2011 40000 52.933 116790

0 9,00 85.859,220 27,49

GDP

(triu VND/

ngi)

Yu t

Nm

15

M hnh 1

2.1 Kim tra cc bnh

2.1.1 a cng tuyn:

T eview ta c bng h s tng quan sau:

T bng trn c th thy c c hin tng a cng tuyn gia GDP vi GIAMY v

GDP vi Q

Cha bnh

Ta loi b bin GDP ra khi m hnh, t kt qu eview ta c m hnh hi qui mi

sau:

16

M hnh 2

Nu ta khng loi b bin GDP m loi b bin GIAMY hoc bin Q th hin tng

a cng tuyn vn cn (c th gia GDP v GIAMY hoc GDP v Q), do nu

khng loi b bin GDP th hin tng a cng tuyn khng xy ra buc ta phi

loi b c 2 bin GIAMY v Q. M hnh hi qui thu c khi loi b c 2 bin

GIAMY v Q l:

17

M hnh 3

C m hnh 2 v 3 u khng cn hin tng a cng tuyn, nhng R hiu chnh m

hnh 3 ln hn R hiu chnh m hnh 2 (0.742674>0.703843) nn m hnh 3 tt hn

m hnh 2.

2.1.2 Phng sai thay i:

Ta tin hnh thc hin kim nh White i vi m hnh3 . Kt qu eview thu c:

18

V Prob. Chi-Square = 20.84% > alpha = 5% nn m hnh trn khng b hin tng phng sai thay i.

2.1.3 T tng quan

Ta ly li m hnh 3:

19

Thc hin kim nh Durbin-Watson ta thy gi tr kim nh d=1.177532 tha mn:

1

20

V Prob(TONKHO)=49.77% nn bin TONKHO khng c ngha thng k

hay khng thc s tc ng n gi c ph.

V Prob(F-statistic)=0.1447% < alpha=5% nn m hnh ph hp.

21

CHNG V: GI CHNH SCH IU CHNH GI THU MUA C

PH TH

T nm 2009 tr v trc, mi khi vo v thu hoch (thng 10 thng 11) l gi c

ph lin tc lao dc do ngun cung di do khi b con nng dn v nh xut khu y

mnh bn ra. Gi thng gim su vo gia v hoc thi im gip Tt nguyn n

bi nhu cu tin mt tng cao. Nh u c cng tn dng c hi ny gom hng, sau

ch n khong thng 3 thng 5 nm sau, khi ngun hng ca v thu hoch

gn nh cn kit th bt u y gi ln cht li.

Tuy nhin khong thi gian sau ny, nhiu ngi sn xut cng nm r xu hng

ny nn gi hng ch gi cao hn bn. Khi ngi trng c ph v nh xut khu

iu tit c ngun cung, gi c ph cng tun theo quy lut ca cung cu nhiu

hn, thay v ph thuc phn ln vo u c nh trc y. Nhiu lc, ng thi ca

ngnh c ph nc ta cn iu khin c c gi trn th trng k hn London v

gi giao ngay ti chu u, vt qua c nhng tc ng ca bin ng tin t v cc

yu t kinh t v m ton cu.

iu tit ngun cung cn thng qua tham kho thng tin cung cu, kinh t v m,

gi c th trng trong nc v quc t. Cc nh xut khu th hn ch k cc hp

ng giao xa gim thiu nhng ri ro v gi c. iu ny gip gi c ph duy tr

mc cao ngay c khi thi im gia v. Nu c, nn thc hin Hp ng xut khu

theo phng thc giao hng FCA thay v FOB. Hin nay, hu ht cc l c ph giao

cho nh nhp khu bng container, m giao hng bng container th khng th giao

hng ngay ti mn tu, m phi giao hng cho ngi chuyn ch ti cc bi

container , hay ti cc trm giao hng l ( gi l CFS Container Freight Station )

trn b. Vic kim tra giao nhn ny phi mt t 5 n 7 ngy, ma xut khu cao

im phi mt n 10 ngy hoc hn. Thit hi ca doanh nghip chnh l giao

hng cho nh nhp khu nhng cha th ly c tin t ngn hng do cha ly c

chng nhn hng ha, c bit trong tnh hnh t gi bin ng nh hin nay.

22

DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Hong Ngc Nhm, Gio trnh Kinh t lng, i hc kinh t thnh ph H Ch Minh.

2. Casella v Berger, 2001, Statistical Inference

3. Wackerly et al, 2007, Mathematical Statistics with Applications

4. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics

5. Green, 2007 Econometrics analysis

6. Website ca Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam http://www.gso.gov.vn

7. Website ca B k hoch u t Cc u t nc ngoi http://fdi.mpi.gov.vn.

8. Website ca Ngn hng th gii http://www.worldbank.org/vi/country/vietnam

9. Website ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam http://www.sbv.gov.vn

10.Website ca sn giao dch caf http://www.giacafe.com

11. Lun vn: Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n sn lng caf bng kinh t lng: http://doc.edu.vn/tai-lieu/chuyen-de-phan-tich-cac-nhan-to-tac-dong-den-san-luong-ca-phe-bang-mo-hinh-kinh-te-luong-71101/

Documents

[Nhóm 1]_Tiểu Luận Kinh Tế Lượng