Održivi razvoj, što je to, da li je mogući kako ga mjerimo?powerlab.fsb.hr/more/files/MOReNevenD.pdf · • Civilizacija Maja –počeci u 1. stoljeću pr.n.e. u području današnjeg

Održivi razvoj, što je to, da li je moguć i kako ga mjerimo?

Neven DuićFakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje

Sveučilište u Zagrebuhttp://powerlab.fsb.hr/nduic

Radionica – Šolta, 14.10.2006

skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička

civilizacija industrija informatika

prije 40000 g. prije

10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije

200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela

izumiranje mega-faune;

irigacija parni stroj računalo

100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.

vatra voda fosilna goriva, električna

energija





200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela




vatra voda fosilna goriva električna

energija





200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela




vatra vatra životinje voda fosilna

goriva električna energija





200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela





energija





200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela





energija





200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela





energija





200 g. prije 50 g.

luk i strijela




vatra voda fosilna goriva, električna

energija

• Čovjek je potekao iz prirode, ali je ona izgubila kontrolu nad njim

• Čovječanstvo nezadrživo buja

• Kada bismo Zemlju predstavili kao višestanični organizam, što bi onda bio čovjek?

• Stanica raka?

0

- 0.6

1950

2000

1000

1050

Izgaranje fosilnih gorivaPromjena načina korištenja zemljišta

Emisija ugljika / *109 t

012345678

280

320340360

- 0.4- 0.2

Promjena temperature / °C

0.20.40.60.81

Koncentracija CO2 / PPMv

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

Godine / A.D.

1100

1150

Brojnost ljudskepopulacije / *109

10

32

54

6

370

Kisele kiše

Geografska distribucija SOX, utjecaj na sunčevo zračenje, W/m2

Od 1979 sjeverna polarna kapa smanjila se za 20%, NASA

1928.

2004.

ARGENTINA, PATAGONIA

Što se čini s malignim tumorom?

• Odstranjivanje? • Da li je moguće odstranjivanje malignog

tumora bez smrti pacijenta u ovome slučaju?

• A tko bi bio kirurg?• Da li je uopće moguća izlazna strategija?

Npr. smanjenje ekonomskog rasta?• Ili kontrolirani pad ekonomije?

Regres ili progres?

• Pad ekonomske djelatnosti – ekonomska kriza, manje dobara na isti broj ljudi –pauperizacija – radikalizacija – gubitak konsenzusa

• Svakoga dana u svakom pogledu sve više napredujem

Modeli razvoja, Malthus vs. Harris?• Malthusov “model razvoja” - diminishing returns

– demografski pritisak (povećanje broja ljudi) – geometrijska progresija• I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the

existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.

• Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. (Malthus 1798, Chapter 1, online [1])

– apsolutna ograničenost rasta resursa - linerarni porast

Modeli razvoja, Malthus vs. Harris?

• model razvoja Marvina Harrisa – “Cannibals and Kings: The Origins of Cultures” – dvije sile utječu na čovjeka:– demografski pritisak (povećanje broja ljudi)– ograničenost resursa na datom tehnološkom nivou

• Kada se civilizacija nađe na točki kada su resursi istrošeni ili je njihova obnovljivost manja nego što je potrebna stopa korištenja izbor je:– civilizacija će implodirati– civilizacija će uspješno skočiti na viši tehnološki nivo čime će se količina sada dostupnih resursa povećati


• Primjeri implodiranih civilizacija:– civilizacija Maja oko 800. g. – civilizacija Rapa Nui oko 1500. g.

• Civilizacija Rapa Nui– Hotu Matu'a + 50, oko 400 god.– oko 10000 stanovnika na vrhuncu– deforestacija– rat– kanibalizam


• Civilizacija Maja– počeci u 1. stoljeću pr.n.e. u području današnjeg Belizea– širenje dolinama rijeka prema unutrašnjosti – naseljavanje područja Peten i Yucatana– gradovi države, oko 750. g. oko 2 miliona ljudi živi u Petenu– slash and burn agriculture– zbog demografskog pritiska smanjuje se trajanje slash and burn

ciklusa sa 20 na desetak godina, što uzrokuje desertifikaciju i nagli gubitak hrane

– rat svih protiv svih, ekonomska aktivnost staje, nestaje hrane, potpuna implozija oko 800.g.

– danas u području Petena živi oko 20000 ljudi, i mnogo gradova duhova (Tikal)

Rast stanovništva?

Efekt staklenika

Bez efekta staklenika, temperatura na Zemlji bila bi 30oC niža

• Ako ne učinimo ništa

• Koncentracija CO2 se stabilizira na 750 ppm

• Koncentracija CO2 se stabilizira na 550 ppm

Promjena temperature do 2080.

Stabilizacija CO2Ako odlučimo

stabilizirati koncentraciju CO2 na 450 ppm!

• Razvijene zemlje trebale bi smanjiti emisije na 10% današnjih do 2060.

• Zemlje u razvoju trebale bi početi smanji vati emisije iza 2050.

Definicije održivog razvoja?a.) for the World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland

Commission) • " development that meets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs "b.) for the Agenda 21, Chapter 35 • " the development requires taking long-term perspectives, integrating

local and regional effects of global change into the developmentprocess, and using the best scientific and traditional knowledgeavailable"

c.) for the Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences:

• " It means the balancing of economic, social environmental and technological considerations, as well as the incorporation of a set of ethic values"

d.) for the Earth Chapter• " The protection of the environment is essential for human well-being

and the enjoyment of fundamental rights, and as such requires the exercise of corresponding fundamental duties"

e.) Thomas Jefferson, Sept.6 1789• " Then I say the earth belongs to each generation during its course, fully

and in its right no generation can contract debts greater than may be paid during the course of its existence"

Metode usporedbe održivosti

• metoda eksternog troška• multikriterijalna analiza• eksergija i eksergoekonomija• emergija

Damage Cost Estimates for Energy Fuel Cycles(UK Specific Results)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Wind Biomass

Global warmingNoiseMaterialsCropsOccup. HealthPublic healthEU

cent

Source DG XII

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

HY

GE

BM

Average Cost in 98 : PV : 30 HY : 8.25 GE : 7.00 WE : 5.33 BM : 5.30 Coal: 3.7 Gas:4.0

WE

ECU

cent

/kW

h

Gas

Coal

RES vs Conventional Power Plants Production Cost

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

HY

GE

BM Average Cost in 98 PV : 30.0 HY : 8.25 GE : 7.00 WE : 5.33+ 0.25 BM : 5.30+0.60 Gas : 4.00+1.70

WE

Gas

Gas + Ext. cost

BM+Ext cost

WE+ Ext. cost

ECU

cent

/kW

h

(Combined cycle Gas Turbines)

Gas vs RES Power Plants Production costIncluding External cost

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

HY

GE

BM Average Cost in 98 PV : 30 HY : 8.25 GE : 7.00 WE : 5.33+0.25 BM : 5.30+0.6 Coal : 3.70+5.4

WE

Coal

Coal + Ext. cost

BM+Ext cost

WE+ Ext. cost

ECU

cent

/kW

h

(Pulverised fuel combustion plants with gas treatment)

Coal vs RES Power Plants Production costIncluding External cost

RES cost – supply curve for 2010

Cost of electricity (c€/kWh) with the energy produced (annual GWh) from a specific energy source (wind, biomass, geothermal and hydro)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

123456789

10

Small Hydro Geothermal Biomass Big Hydro Wind

Annual Supply (GWh)

Cost(c€/kWh)

0-22-44-6

8-106-8

18-2016-1814-1612-1410-12

410410192192

154154173173

210210

8686

8888

RES cost – supply curve for 2010

Cost of electricity (c€/kWh) with the energy produced (annual GWh) from a specific energy source (wind, biomass, geothermal and hydro)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

123456789

10

Small Hydro Geothermal Biomass Big Hydro Wind

Annual Supply (GWh)

Cost(c€/kWh)

0-22-44-6

8-106-8

18-2016-1814-1612-1410-12

average generation cost 3.55 c€/kWh

economic and external cost of new conventional PP

new PP generation cost

Metode usporedbe održivosti

• metoda eksternog troška• multikriterijalna analiza

• eksergija i eksergoekonomija• emergija

Multikriterijalna analiza

• Indikatori opisuju pojedini sustav• Environmental indicators

– Carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and particulate emissions

• Social indicators– Health Indicator, Social Acceptance, Employment

• Economic indicators– Capital Investment Cost indicator and the Fuel Cost

indicator

LIFE LIFE CRO CHPCRO CHPScenariosScenarios

• Three scenarios to be taken into consideration

– ProCHP scenario• most beneficial for development of CHP; based on

scenario developed by Energy Institute “Hrvoje Požar”

– Business as Usual scenario• considered as a most probable case if no changes of the

present situation happen in the future

– ContraCHP scenario• case when cogeneration doesn’t develop in Croatia and

existing district heating network is being slowly replaced with other energy providing solutions

ctt

Scenarios

490

820

913

490

1008

1095

490

611

721739

683657657

757

891

596631657

0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

800,00

1000,00

1200,00

2000 (base) 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Cap

acity

[MW

]

Business as usualProCHPContraCHP

Scenariji razvoja kogeneracije u RH

Cogeneration sustainability indicators

Indicator UnitProCHP scenario Business as Usual

scenarioContraCHP

scenario

Carbon dioxide emissions indicator

[kg/kW he] 0,7068 0,7634 0,8109

Sulphur dioxide emissions indicator

[kg/kW he] 0,003326 0,003221 0,003131

Particles emissions indicator

[kg/kW he] 0,0002334 0,0002354 0,0002369

Health Social Indicator [$/kW he] 0,00881 0,00855 0,00835

Public acceptance social indicator

- 356 482 181

Specific Investment Cost

[€/kW ] 761,39 783,35 1163,86

Specific Fuel Cost [€/kW hel] 0,0444 0,0515 0,0556

Table 1. Sustainability indicatorsTable 1. Sustainability indicators

Sustainability assessment procedure

• Multicriteria decision making procedure was used for sustainability assessment

• The sustainability assessment procedure was based on Decision Support System’s Shell (DSSS) program ASPID3W – a computer realisation of the ASPID method (ASPID – Analysis and Synthesis of Parameters under Information Deficiency)

• The assessment procedure can be described as a series of steps

1) Selection of environmental, social and economic indicators and their calculation


2) Formation of particular membership function – aggregation of sets of indicators and normalization of indicators values

– Environmental, social and economic indicators are aggregated into one indicator for each scenario considered.

– After the aggregation, indicator sets are normalized - each indicator obtains the value between 0 and 1 depending on the mutual relationship between indicator’s values

Scenario Environmental Indicator (EI)

Social indicator (SI)

Economic Indicator (EcI)

ProCHP 0,727 0,279 0,941

Business as Usual 0,557 0,776 0,607

ContraCHP 0,162 0,500 0,000

Table 2. Values of normalized sustainability indicators for eacTable 2. Values of normalized sustainability indicators for each of the scenariosh of the scenarios

3) Selection of different cases – definition of constraints which are imposed as regarded preference of the specific criteria

– Different criteria (in this case environmental, social and economic criteria) can have different preference from the decision maker point of view. In the decision making procedure that reflects in the different weighting coefficients assigned to specific scenario.

– Three different cases were taken into consideration, reflecting the difference in mutual relation in weighting factors on the decision making procedure.

– Cases:

1) Priority is given to the environmental criteria

1) Priority is given to the social criteria

2) Priority is given to economic criteria


4) Formation of an aggregative function for each of the cases and General Index of Sustainability (GIS) rating

• For each case, the General Index of Sustainability is obtained by aggregation of before normalized sustainability indicators into one general index.

• The results of analysis, thus General Index of Sustainability rating as well as weighting coefficients rating are presented on so called ASPID diagram.

• In the following slides the ASPID diagram representing the weighting coefficients rating and General Index of Sustainability rating are presented for each of the cases.

• Each ASPID diagram presents the value of specific variable (weighting factor or GIS), the standard deviation and probability of dominancy between options under consideration.


General Index of Sustainability• Case 1: EI>SI=EcI

EI=Environmental Indicator weightingSI=Social Indicator weightingEcI=Economic Indicator weighting

Figure 3. Weighting coefficients rating in case 1

Figure 4. General Index of Sustainability rating for case 1

General Index of Sustainability• Case 2: SI>EI=EcI




General Index of Sustainability• Case 3: EcI>EI=SI




• električna energija

• toplina

• transport

• obnovljivi izvori?

• nuklearna energija?

• energetska efikasnost?

• fuzija?

• neka sasvim nova tehnologija?

ElectricityDemand

37,0 TWh

62,3 TWh

Biomass49,4 TWh

FuelTotal49,4TWh

14,7 TWh

53,5 TWh

District HeatingGrid loss

25 % HeatDemand

56,8 TWh

Transport(50,7 TWh)equivalent

CHP, HP andPower plants

WindPower

37,0 TWh

42,8 TWh

14,0 TWh18,0 TWh

31,4TWh

Household &Industry

Danska alternativa 20?0

Solar thermal2,1 TWh

PhotoVoltaic

17,8 TWh

H2

H2Electrolyser

Solar panels

COMMODITIES

Gasification

Heat

Electricity

Cold

HydrogenStorage

Water

Wastewater

Biogas

Solar

Wind

Sustainable Community

RESOURCES TECHNOLOGIES

PV panels

Electrolysis

Fuel cellTrigeneration

Hydrogen

Desalination

Reforming

Sea

Biomass

Hydro Fresh water

Reversible hydro p.p.

Waste

Biofuels

EsterificationFermentation

Geothermal

Biomass p.p.

Wind turbines

Geothermal p.p.

Wastewater treatment

Hvala!

[email protected]

Documents

Održivi razvoj, što je to, da li je mogući kako ga mjerimo?powerlab.fsb.hr/more/files/MOReNevenD.pdf · • Civilizacija Maja –počeci u 1. stoljeću pr.n.e. u području današnjeg