Petrona Spr

7/29/2019 Petrona Spr

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AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO PETROLEUM

RESOURCES DEFINITIONS,

CLASSIFICATION AND REPORTING

Rosly Mohd Nor

PETRONAS CARIGALI


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Overview

Definitions & Classification

Estimation & Reconciliation

Reporting

Conclusion

PresentationOutline


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To share some of the industrys practices

in resources / reserves definitions,

classifications , issues and challenges.

To share PETRONASs experiences in

developing and application of its resources

definitions ,classification and reporting inits international ventures.

Objectives


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The Mckelvey Box(1972 )

Proved Probable

Identified

PossibleUndiscovered

RESERVES

RESOURCES

Degree of certainty


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Petroleum Society of Canadian Institute of Mining (1994)

Resources

Undiscovered Resources

or

Future Initial Volumes in Place

Unrecoverable

Volumes

Initial

Reserves

Future Unrecoverable

Volumes

Proved Developed

Producing

Non Producing

Proved Undeveloped

Undiscovered Resources

or

Initial Volumes in Place

Currently Uneconomic Volumes

Residual Unrecoverable Volumes

Remaining

ProvedReserves

ProbableReserves

PossibleReserves

Future Initial

Reserves

Remaining

Reserves

Cumulative

Production

Sales

Probable

Developed

Probable

Undeveloped

Possible

Developed

Possible

Undeveloped

Inventory


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Caldwell & Heather, The Scotia Group , JPT (1995)

DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED

RESERVES

PROVED PROBABLE POSSIBLE

ECONOMIC

SUB

ECONOMIC

TECHNICAL CERTAINTY OF EXISTANCE

ECONOMIC

FEASIBILITY

OF RECOVERY

Discovered but not

economically recoverable

resources

Low Price

Medium Price

High Price

Undiscovered,

economically

recoverable resources

Undiscovered,

not economically

recoverable resources


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Patricelli & McMichael, Mobil, JPT (1995)

Discovered Undiscovered

Reserves Contingent

(Economic, currently ResourcesProducible) (Uneconomic, not

currently producible)

Proved Probable Possible Proved Probable PossibleP1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6

Speculative

Potential

Geological Risk

Pg

Associated Confidence Factors


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PETRONAS (1997)

RESOURCES

DISCOVERED

RESERVES

UNPROVED

UNDISCOVERED

POTENTIAL

RECOVERY (PR)

ULTIMATE

RECOVERY (UR)

CUMULATIVE

PRODUCTION

SPECULATIVE

RECOVERY (SR)

PROVED

(P1)

PROBABLE

(P2)

POSSIBLE

(P3)

EXPECTED HIGHLOWPROVED

(P4)UNPROVED

PROBABLE

(P5)

POSSIBLE

(P6)


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PETROLEUM

RESOURCES

DISCOVERED

RESOURCESUNDISCOVERED

RESOURCES

RESERVES POTENTIAL

RESOURCES

HYPOTHETICAL

RESOURCES

SPECULATIVE

RESOURCES

PROVED

RESERVES

UNPROVED

RESERVES

DEVELOPED

RESERVES

UNDEVEL.

RESERVES

PROBABLE

RESERVES

POSSIBLE

RESERVES

LOW LOWEXP. EXP.HIGH HIGH

CCOP (1999)

Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programmes

CCOP Members : Cambodia , China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea,

The Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam


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RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY

PRODUCTION

RESERVES

CONTINGENT

RESOURCES

PROSPECTIVE

RESOURCES

PROVED

PROVED

PLUS

PROBABLE

PROVED

PLUS

PROBABLE

PLUS

POSSIBLE

LOW

ESTIMATE

BEST

ESTIMATE

HIGH

ESTIMATE

LOW

ESTIMATE

BEST

ESTIMATE

HIGH

ESTIMATE

UNRECOVERABLE

UNRECOVERABLE

SPE (2000)


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Resource Uncertainty Categories

Society of Petroleum

Engineers (SPE )

World Petroleum

Congress ( WPC )Former Soviet Union

DETRMINISTIC PROBABILISTIC CATEGORY

Proved

Probable

Possible

P1 ( 90% confidence )

P1 + P2 ( 50 % confidence )

P1 + P2 + P3 (10 % confidence )

Class A and B

Class C1

Class C2


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Presentation Outline

Overview



Reporting

Conclusion


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Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)

Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE)

World Petroleum Congress (WPC)

Petroleum Society of Canadian Institute of Mining)

Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) US

Resources Evaluation Consultants

PSC Contractors

Technical Journals

Key Reference


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PETRONAS (1997)

RESOURCES

DISCOVERED

RESERVES

UNPROVED

UNDISCOVERED

POTENTIAL

RECOVERY (PR)

ULTIMATE

RECOVERY (UR)

CUMULATIVE

PRODUCTION

SPECULATIVE

RECOVERY (SR)

PROVED

(P1)

PROBABLE

(P2)

POSSIBLE

(P3)

EXPECTED HIGHLOWPROVED

(P4)UNPROVED

PROBABLE

(P5)

POSSIBLE

(P6)


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International standards and practices

Business & technical applications

Total resources / Field life cycle

Risk & uncertainty quantification

Reporting consistency & transparent

Flexible & Robust

Key Principles


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Applications of Petroleum Resources Estimate

Technical

Prospect Evaluation

Block Assessment

Work Program & Budget

Project Identification Field Development Plan

Facility Design

Appraisal Plan

Improve Oil Recovery (IOR) Project

Research & Development


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Applications of Petroleum Resources Estimate

Business

Corporate Worth Fund Raising (credit rating)

Stock Exchange Reporting

Sales Contracts (LNG ) Earning Basis

Investment Decision (FDP)

Corporate Financial Outlook

Equity Determination

Petroleum Arrangement


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Definition : Resources

Resources are defined as the totalestimated quantities of petroleum at a

specific date to be contained in, or that

have been produced from knownaccumulations, plus those estimated

quantities in accumulations yet to be

discovered.


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Definition : Undiscovered Resources

Undiscovered Resources are definedas the the total estimated in-place of

petroleum at a specific date to be

contained in accumulations yet to bediscovered.


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Definition : Discovered Resources

Discovered Resources is defined asthe total estimated in-place quantities of

petroleum at a specific date to be

contained in known accumulations thathave been penetrated by a wellbore.


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Definition : Speculative Recovery ( SR )

Speculative Recovery is defined as

the undiscovered resources at a specific

date to be contained in unproven traps,

undrilled provinces, structures or deeper

reservoirs underlying productive fields

where geological conditions are believed

to be favourable for the accumulation ofpetroleum which if present, may

eventually be recovered.


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Definition : Potential Recovery ( PR )

Potential Recovery is defined as thediscovered resources that are recoverable

but not producible at a specific date due to

economic, political, environmental or

technological reasons.


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Potential Recovery Category

Economic

- Production Sharing Contract (PSC)- Development concept

Technology- Hydrocarbon quality (API, CO2, H2S etc)

- Small fields

- Reservoir with inconclusive data- Location

- Adverse parameters

- Geological complexity

Environment- HSE regulation

Political- Under unitization


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Definition : Ultimate Recovery ( UR )

Ultimate Recovery is defined as thediscovered resources anticipate to be

commercially recoverable from known

accumulations at a specific date, under

existing economic condition, by

established operating practices and under

current government regulations.


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Definition : Reserves

Reserves is defined as the totalestimated remaining quantities of

petroleum anticipated to be commercially

recoverable from known accumulations ata specific date, underexisting economic

conditions, by establishes operating

practices and undercurrent governmentregulations.

D fi iti R


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Definition : Reserves

PROVED RESERVES

- reasonable certainty means a probability (confidence) of at least 85%

that the estimated quantities will be recovered.

PROBABLE RESERVES

- sufficient degree of certainty means a probability (confidence) forproved+probable of at least 50% that the estimated quantities will be

recovered.

POSIBBLE RESERVES

- low degree of certainty means a probability (confidence) forproved+probable+possible of at least 15% that the estimated quantities will be

recovered.

R C t


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ULTIMATE RECOVERY

- Discovered

- UR = Np + Reserves- Commercial

- Producing fields

- Firm development

POTENTIAL RECOVERY

- Discovered

- Not producible due :Economic,Political,

Environmental or Technological

reasons

- Insufficient /inconclusive data

SPECULATIVE RECOVERY

- Undiscovered

- Unproven trap- Deeper reservoir

in producing

field

P1

P2P3

ODT

EOWC

SPILL

P1 P4P4

P6

P5

OWC

GDT

P4P5P6

?

EOWC?

SPILL?

LOW

EXPECTED

HIGH

BLOCK1 BLOCK2 BL

BLOCK 1 BLOCK 2 BLOCK 3

Recovery Category

P t ti O tli


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Overview



Reporting

Conclusion

R l R E ti ti


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Rules on Reserves Estimation

Reserves estimation is an imprecise science

No right way to estimate reserves

Dependent data quality, quantity and experiences

Risk and uncertainty

Right answer at the end of field life

Reso rce Estimation Approaches


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Resource Estimation Approaches

Deterministic method

Probabilistic method

Integrated method

- P1 (proved), P2 (probable) : deterministic

- P3 (possible) : probabilistic

- C1, C2, C3 : confidence factor

- Expected value ( EV ) = P1*C1 + P2*C2 + P3*C3

Reserves Estimation


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Reserves Estimation

Proved 85%

Proved + Probable

50%

Proved + Probable + Possible 15%

Reconciliation


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DETERMINISTIC

OUTPUT

PROVED = P1

PROBABLE = P2

POSSIBLE = P3

EXPECTED VALUE (EV)

= P1XC1 + P2XC2 + P3XC3 or

= P1+ 2/3 P2 + 1/3 P3

( If Log Normal Distribution )

1P > 85%

2P > 50%

3P > 15%

ASSOCIATEDCONFIDENCE OF

RECOVERY

PROBABILISTIC

OUTPUT

PROVED

EXPECTED

HIGH

> 85%

> 50%

> 15%

ASSOCIATEDCONFIDENCE OF

RECOVERY

EV

NOTE : P1 ARE SUMMED ARITHMETICALLY (ACCEPTED INDUSTRY PRACTISE)

EV ARE SUMMED ARITMETICALLY

Reconciliation



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Overview



Reporting

Conclusion

Reporting Principles


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Reporting Principles

Consistent with definitions & classification

Transparent & auditable ( input / output )

Total resources / field life cycle

Multiple business and technical applications

Expected Value (EV)

- Planning- Booked number

- Summation,

- Reconciliation

Dynamic Reporting System


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RESOURCE MIGRATION

CERTAIN

(Produced)COMMERCIAL

(Discovered)

NON-

COMMERCIAL

(Discovered)

SPECULATIVE

(Undiscovered)

DEVELOPMENT

RECOVERABLE

PETROLEUM IN-PLACE

PRODUCTION

VOLUMETRIC

HIERACHY

Dynamic Reporting System

Resources Reporting


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SUMMATION

DETERMINISTIC

PROBABILISTIC

INTEGRATED

Proved

EV

Proved

EV

Proved

Probable

Possible

EV

Proved

Expectation

High

Proved

Expectation

High

Proved

Probable

Possible

EV

RESERVES STATUS

Developed

Undeveloped

Proved

EV

Resources Reporting

METHODS

REPORTING

Proved

EV

Standard Legend for Fluid Types


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Standard Legend for Fluid Types

BLACK / WHITE COLOUR HYDROCARBON CATEGORY

UNDISCOVERED - LEAD

PROBABLE GAS / POSSIBLE OIL

UNDISCOVERED - PROSPECT

PROVED GAS

PROBABLE GAS

PROVED OIL

DISCOVERED - HYDROCARBON

POSSIBLE GAS

PROBABLE OIL

PROBABLE OIL / POSSIBLE GAS

POSSIBLE OIL

PROVED WATER

Map


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Map

Fluid Contacts : The Half - Way Concept


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The categories and halfway concept

may be over ridden by some othergeological, geophysical and

engineering data or which the basis

and assumptions must be clearly

stated

Fluid Contacts : The Half Way Concept

Discovered Crude Oil Resources Summary :Potential Recovery ( PR ) Category


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Potential Recovery ( PR ) Category

FIELD : Mala

UNIT : MILLION STOCK TANK BARRELS (MMSTB)

Remarks : Economic , Technology , Environment, Political

RESERVOIR

Reservoir 1

Reservoir 2

Reservoir 3

Reservoir 1

Reservoir 2

Reservoir 3

BLOCK 1

BLOCK 2

Sub-Total

Sub-Total

FIELDTOTAL

PROVED POSSIBLEPROBABLE EV RF PROVED POSSIBLEPROBABLE EV

STOIIP POTENTIALRECOVERY REMARKS

0.00.0 0.00.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



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Overview



Reporting

Conclusion

Conclusion


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Conclusion

The definitions , classification and

reporting should cover the full range of

petroleum resources inventory in meeting

various business and technical

applications.

Documents

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