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Polyester Market Returning to the Winter
Zhang Youding
Deputy Section Chief
Synthetic Fiber Division of Sinopec Chemical Products Sales Company
1
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
化工事业部
化工销售分公司合成纤维处化工销售分公司合成纤维处化工销售分公司合成纤维处化工销售分公司合成纤维处
化工销售化工销售化工销售化工销售Chemical Products Sales Company
Polyester Market Returning to the Winter
November 2012 Shanghai
Contents
2.
3.
Oversupply pressure increases in 2012
Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012
4. Strategies and suggestions under the tough situation
2
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Cotton spinningstable to soft?
� China’s spinning capacity
exceeds 50% of the world total,
owning 120 million spindles for
ring spinning and 2.32 million
rotors for rotor spinning.
� In 2011, China’s spun yarn
production increased by 12.43
percent year on year, slightly
lower than that of a year earlier,
and the respective growths of
chemical fiber yarn and blended
yarn were at 15.72 percent and
13.55 percent.
� In Jan-Sep 2012, China’s spun
yarn production totaled 23.725
million tons, up 12.9 percent year
on year.
Spun yarn production and structure change from 2011 to date in China (above designated size)
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— production slackens
� In Jan-Sep 2012, China’s fabric production increased by 5.26 percent year on year, indicating a
further decrease in growth rate; hereinto, that of chemical fiber fabric was at 8.1 percent.
� In the same period, apparel production was around 20 billion pieces, up 6.56 percent.
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— production slackens
3
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Growth eases obviously
� In Jan-Sep 2012, the domestic
soft drink output was nearly
100 million tons, up 8.35%
year on year, but the growth
rate was 10.5 percentage points
lower from a year before.
� Carbonated beverage output
dropped by 14.5% compared
with the growth of 28.9% of
the same period last year.
� In the past few years, the
average growth rate of
domestic beverage was above
20 percent.
China’s beverage production in recent years (10,000 tons)
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— production slackens
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6
� In the first three quarters, the retail sales of textiles and apparels increased 17.8 percent year on year,
7 percentage points lower over the same period last year.
� Meanwhile, CPI for clothing rose by 3.4 percent.
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— domestic sales shrinks
Retail sales of textiles and apparels in China from 2011 to date
Y-o-y growth (%) Retail sales (billion yuan)
4
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
7
� In the first three quarters, retail sales of large-size textile and apparel retailers in China increased 11.2 percent year on year, 14.5 percentage points lower from a year earlier.
� Meantime, the growth of sales volume was less than 2 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower, indicating persistent and obvious declines in growth rate.
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— domestic sales shrinks
Sales growths of 100 large-size textile & apparel retailers in Jan-Sep 2012
Value (left), Volume (right)
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— export growth stagnates
Export growth stagnates
In Jan-Sep 2012, the
cumulative export value of
textiles and apparels in
China only increased by
0.54 percent year on year.
It is estimated that the
annual growth rate will be
basically equal to the above
number.
Export value of textiles & apparels in recent years ($ billion)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Export value
Y-o-y growth
5
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
� Export to Europe saw a negative growth of minus 11.8 percent; hereinto, the export growth to EU-15
was at minus 15.4 percent, with that to Italy topping at minus 24.7 percent.
� Separately, the export growths to the US and Japan were at 3.4 percent and 1.0 percent respectively.
� These figures all posted declines compared with that in Q1.
Textile & apparel export by destination in Jan-Aug 2012
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— export growth stagnates
� Export volume of most products decreased.
� The decreases of chemical-fiber-based products were smaller.
-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%
Knitt
ed
gar
ment …
Oth
er f
abric
s
Oth
er g
arm
ents
Chem
ical f
iber
yarn
Cott
on fab
ric
Spun y
arn
Cott
on y
arn
CF
knitt
ed
garm
ent
CF
wove
n fa
bric
Oth
er y
arn
s
Nonw
ove
n
Carp
et
Knitt
ed
garm
ents
CF
wo
ven g
arm
ent
CY
knitt
ed
garm
ent
Wove
n g
arm
ent
Wool w
ove
n f
abric
Silk
yarn
Cott
on w
ove
n …
Silk
wove
n g
arm
ent
Silk
fabric
Fur g
arm
ent
Wove
n g
arm
ent …
Wool y
arn
Wool w
ove
n …
Wool k
nitt
ed
…
Sued
e g
arm
ent
Leath
er g
arm
ent
Silk
kn
itted
garm
ent
Textile & apparel export volume by product in Jan-Aug 2012
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— export growth stagnates
6
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
� Export value of most products still rose year on year.
� The price hikes of chemical fiber products were relatively weaker.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Silk k
nitte
d g
arm
en
t
Su
ed
e g
arm
en
t
Woo
l w
oven
garm
ent
Wo
ol yarn
Wo
ol kn
itte
d g
arm
en
t
Fur
garm
en
t
Carp
et
Co
tto
n k
nitte
d g
arm
ent
Oth
er
garm
en
ts
Knitte
d g
arm
en
t
Leath
er
garm
ent
Silk fabri
c
Silk w
oven
garm
en
t
No
nw
oven
Wo
ve
n g
arm
en
t …
CF
knitte
d g
arm
en
t
Woo
l w
oven
fab
ric
CF
woven
fab
ric
Co
tto
n w
ove
n g
arm
en
t
Wo
ve
n g
arm
en
t …
CF
wo
ven g
arm
en
t
Kn
itte
d g
arm
ent …
Oth
er
yarn
s
Oth
er
fab
rics
Sp
un
yarn
Cott
on
fab
ric
Th
read
Ch
em
ical fib
er
yarn
Co
tto
n y
arn
Textile & apparel export price by product in Jan-Aug 2012
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— export growth stagnates
Direct export eases
� In 2011, the export volume
of polyester products
exceeded 2.95 million tons,
up around 0.6 million tons or
25.3 percent year on year.
� In Jan-Sep 2012, the export
volume amounted to 2.45
million tons, up 0.12 million
tons or 5.13 percent year on
year.
� Export growths saw
recoveries recently, as
exports declined notably
during the second half of last
year.
Polyester products export from 2010 to date
kt
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— export growth stagnates
7
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
� According to the data from 87 listed textile enterprises, the stockpile amounted to 73.2 billion yuan in their interim reports, compared
with 69.9 billion yuan last year and 50.1 billion yuan the year before last. The figure for Q3 2012 is expected to increase further.
� Generally speaking, the stockpiles of public clothing shops is 2-4 times more than their sales values, with higher ones seen at 6 or even
9 times more.
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— climate cools
Stockpile of relevant industries by the end of Jul 2012 (stock to sales value of that month)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Spun yarn Nonwoven Fabric Knitgoods Apparel/accessories Listed firms
?
Inventory of some listed textile & apparel companies by the end of Sep 2012
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— climate cools
CompanyBeginning inventory (bil. yuan)
Inventory at end Q3 (bil. yuan)
ChangeProportion of
inventory to Q3 output value
Inventory worth (month, est.)
Meters/bonwe 2.56 2.199 -14.10% 32.2% 2.9
Semir 1.096 1.439 31.30% 29.1% 2.6
Hongdou Industry 3.637 3.978 9.38% 270.4% 24.3
Joeone 0.722 0.779 7.89% 38.2% 3.4
Septwolves 0.642 0.736 14.64% 28.3% 2.5
Baoxiniao Group 0.511 0.625 22.31% 34.3% 3.1
Tianshan Textile 0.238 0.254 6.72% 123.3% 11.1
Shanshan Corp. 0.815 0.952 16.81% 34.3% 3.1
Sinoer 0.312 0.388 24.36% 45.3% 4.1
Langsha Holding 0.219 0.245 11.87% 99.6% 9.0
Toread 0.178 0.336 88.76% 43.2% 3.9
Total (apparel)
10.93 11.931 9.16% 48.5% 4.4
Luolai Home Textile 0.517 0.684 32.30% 33.9% 3.1
Mendale 0.384 0.528 37.50% 55.3% 5.0
Fuanna 0.517 0.46 -11.03% 40.6% 3.7
Total (home textiles)
1.418 1.672 17.91% 40.7% 3.7
8
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Run rate decreases
� In 2012, the operating
rate of polyester units
slipped by 3 percentage
points to 82 percent.
� Meantime, that of
BGPET chip and PFY
units dropped by 7-8
percentage points.
Operating rate of polyester industry in Chin in recent years
2011
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— climate cools
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Polymer PET Resin PSF PF
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
2010 3 5 7 9 11
2011 3 5 7 9 11
2012 3 5 7 9
PET chip
1.4D PSF
POY150D
FDY150D
Y/T
Price trend of polyester products from 2010 to date Prices return normal
� In Jan-Oct 2012, the
average price for Brent
crude futures was still
around $112/bbl, but
the average price for
polyester products
dropped by around 17
percent.
� The current price levels
are slightly below the
normal ones.
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— climate cools
9
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
� Profitability of major products weakened obviously, with cash flows lowering from the highs.
� Differentiated products with high added values also failed to escape, with some even seeing larger markdowns than
regular products.
� Downstream sectors also performed poorly, such as chip-based spinning sector, film sector, etc.
Cash flow of major polyester products from 2009 to dateY/T
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2009 2010 2011 2012
PET chip
PSF 1.4D
POY 150D
FDY 150D
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— climate cools
Major indicators of polyester industry in recent years (%) Major indicators worsen
� Gross margin and profit
margin of polyester
industry dropped sharply,
while stockpile and the
proportion of loss-
incurring enterprises rose.
YearGross
margin
Three expenses to sales
Profit margin
Extra-ordinary items to
sales
Stock ratio
Export ratio
Loss-incurring
rate
2009 5.45 3.59 2.18 -0.32 4.34 7.26 24.31
2010 8.74 3.47 6.15 -0.88 4.22 7.36 9.43
2011 8.62 3.47 5.55 -0.4 4.25 6.63 12.4
Jan-Jul 2012
5.46 3.94 2.05 -0.53 9.44 4.8 32.05
1. Polyester fiber demand growth slows obviously in 2012—— climate cools
10
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
A new round of rapid expansions
� From 2011 to 2013, China’s
polyester industry will see a
new round of rapid capacity
expansion, with the newly
added capacities expected to
reach 4-6 million tons every
year.
� By the end of 2012, China’s
polyester capacity is predicted
to reach around 38.5 million
tons per year.
� By the end of 2013, China’s
polyester capacity is expected
to reach around 43 million tons
per year.
Polyester capacity expansions in China in recent years(10,000 tons per year)
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— capacity expansion
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Expansion Capacity
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— capacity expansion
Expansion to last one year at most?
� Newly added capacities
amount to around 5.5-6.0
million tons in 2012
according to the estimate, up
by 18 percent year on year.
� In the first three quarters, 4.5
million tons/year capacities
came on stream. Many of
them produced chips at first,
and then PFY or PSF lines
were gradually added.
� Due to the lag of matched
lines, chip availability on the
market increased sharply.
New polyester capacities in China in 2012(10,000 tons per year)
Q2 Q3 Q4Q1
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ta
ica
ngC
hang
le
Ha
inin
gW
ank
aiN
o.2
Chi
na R
eso
urce
s (C
hang
zho
u) N
o.3
Gua
ngdo
ng T
aib
ao
Guo
wan
gH
igh-
tech
N
o.2
Wu
jiang
Xin
min
No
.2
Zhe
jiang
Hen
gyi
(Lin
jiang
)
Zhe
jiang
Xia
ngsh
eng
Suq
ian
No
.1
Zhe
jiang
To
ngku
n
Zhe
jiang
Uni
ful
Wu
jiang
Xin
min
No
.3
Zhe
jiang
Ho
ngen
Chi
na R
eso
urce
s (Z
huha
i) N
o.5
11
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Extremely high-speed expansions
� In 2012, newly added
BGPET resin capacity
amounted to 1.7 million
tons so far, pushing the
total capacity up by 35
percent to 6.6 million
tons per year.
� Some of these new
capacity might produce
FGPET chips at earlier
stage after the startup.
BGPET resin expansion in China in recent years(10,000 tons per year)
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— capacity expansion
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Expansion Capacity
Considerable expansion as well
� In 2012, as some plants
failed to install winders
in time, the actual
capacity expansion of
PFY only amounted to 3
million tons so far, and
the total capacity is
expected to reach 27.5
million tons per year by
the end of 2012.
� From 2011 to 2013, the
average annual capacity
expansion is estimated at
above 3.5 million tons.
PFY expansion in China in recent years (10,000 tons per year)
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— capacity expansion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Expansion Capacity
12
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
History recurs
� In 2012, direct-melt-
spinning PSF capacity is
expected to reach 6
million tons per year, up
14.5 percent year on year.
� In the meantime,
recycled polyester fiber
capacity is expected to
exceed 7 million tons per
year.
PSF expansion in China in recent years (10,000 tons per year)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Expansion Capacity
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— capacity expansion
Output increase brought by capacity expansion
� In 2013, the polyester
fiber production is
predicted to reach 30
million tons in China, up
2.5 million tons year on
year.
� Although the growth rate
posts a decline, the actual
increased volume is
major.
Polyester fiber production from 2000 to 2015 (10 thousand tons, * for estimates)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
*
2013
*
2014
*
2015
* 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— capacity expansion
Output Growth
13
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Loose cotton supply
� In the 2011/12 marketing year,
China’s cotton production
amounted to around 6.6 million
tons, up 10.7 percent from the
same period last year, indicating a
gap of around 3 million tons.
However, in Jan-Sep 2012, the
cotton import in China was nearly
4.03 million tons, up 107 percent
year on year.
� In the 2012/13 marketing year,
the cotton planted area and
production are likely to decrease
by 5 percent; hereinto, the planted
area is expected to fall by around
6 percent, while the production is
predicted to drop to 6.3 million
tons or so.
Cotton production and consumption in China and worldwide in recent years (million tons)
Worldwide
China
2. Oversupply pressure increases in 2012—— cotton harvest
�In 2013, world economy is expected to see a lower growth rate than in 2012
� The US will remain the leading force of world economy growth given its capability in tech innovation, though a significant growth is not likely to be achieved in the near future(IMF=2.1%).
� Euro Zone Economy may enter a recession instead of further deterioration. (IMF=0.2%)
– The €120-billion economy stimulating package brought by EU may prevent the crisis from upgrading.
– Larger investment would be needed to support the growth of traditional manufacturing industry of European countries.
� Japan will continue to see slow economic growth
– An aging city and negative population growth are depriving the country of domestic demand
– Unstable government performance is unlikely to improve in the near future
– Debt crisis in Europe resulted in Yen appreciation, a negative factor for export
– Slow recovery from the earthquake 2011 accompanied with closed nuclear power plant and tax increase
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — economic environment
14
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
27
�China may have a harder time in 2013 with challenges accompanied with opportunities
� Economic growth goes slower but more stable
– The target de-stocking is close to be achieved, with the task of de-capacity remaining
– As the highlight of H2 2012, investment in infrastructure could provide little more than a short-term push
– Real estate market is seeing signs of improvement, while pressure from policies are expected to remain
� Macroeconomic control from policies may loosen a bit
– Presetting and fine adjustment are expected to have more room to play in monetary policies
– China will continue to pursue relatively positive financial policies, though unlikely to go much further in this direction
– There will still be many efforts to stimulate domestic consumption
� Economic growth is expected to see more difficulties in 2013
– Shrinking trade surplus, dollar appreciation and CNY depreciating by small range
– Stable fixed assets investment and slightly increasing domestic consumption growth expected to support GDP to see a rollover from 2012
– In the medium term, the potential growth rate of China economy may descend to around 7.0% if no further major stimulating actions taken by the government
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
� China’s accession to WTO admitted on 10 Nov 2001
� China has witnessed significant development in manufacturing industry, but is losing its edge now.
� “MADE IN CHINA” can be found everywhere around the world
� Vietnam took the place of China as the largest OEM base of Nike shoes in 2010.
� Rising costs meet increasing trading barriers
� Development of China Textile Industry
� The export value of textile in 2011 is around $212 billion, nearly a quadruple compared with the $53.2
billion in 2001.
� Mill consumption of fibers in 2011 totals 45 million tons, 3.3 times of the 13.6 million ton in 2001.
� Output of apparel in 2011 is around 25.4 billion pieces, 3.3 times of the 7.8 billion pieces in 2001.
� Development of China Polyester Industry
� Polyester capacity totaled around 33 million tons/year in 2011, increasing by almost 3 times from the
8.8 million tons/year in 2001.
�End of the “Golden Age”
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
15
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Capacities increasing at a fast and persistent pace
� Around 5 million tons of
new annual capacities are
expected in 2013.
� Besides PFY, BGPET
and PSF are also
expected to see increase.
Planned new polyester capacities in China in 2013 (kt/year)
Q3Q1
0
100
200
300
400
500
Xin
feng
min
g#5
Xin
feng
min
g#6
Shandong
Shandong
Shandong
Shandong W
anjie
#2
South
South
South
South E
astGrid
Grid
Grid
Grid
Yiz
heng
CF
15#
Fuj
ian
Bill
ion
San
fang
xian
g
Hua
xian
g(C
hina
)
Fuj
ian
Fen
ghua
Zhe
jiang
Tia
nyua
n
Q2 Q4
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
Situation of invested projects of textile industry during Jan-Aug 2012 (%)
16.2113.87 14.86
40.84
14.32 15.53
-6.99-9.01 -9.92
12.89
-6.19
23.68
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Textile Industry Textiles Cotton spinning,printing/dyeing
Wool spinning,printing/dyeing
Apparel Polyester fiber
Completed Started
�CNY23.65 billion completed in chemical fiber and knitting & Weaving, CNY48.27 in
textiles, accounting for 9.1% and18.7% respectively of completed investment of the
industry total.
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
16
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
�There are expected to be more increase in POY capacities as suppliers are suffering great
loss from FDY, indicating that the loss is well likely to also occur with POY in the future.
FDY (melt-direct-spun) POY (melt-direct-spun)
Newly added 990-1,160kt 825-890kt
Increase rate 18% 9.8%
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
Main locations of chip-based spinning capacities in China
�Investment in chip-based spinning capacities has withered significantly, so there will be
little increase in numbers of chip spinning plants in the near future.
Other places inJiangsu, 18%
Changshu, 7%
Other places inZhejiang, 7%
Cixi, 18%Zhuji, 9%
Shaoxing, 20%
Xiaoshan, 18%
Guangdong,3%
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
17
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
Increase in numbers of draw-texturing machines in China (unit: set)
�Increase rate has been falling significantly since 2011, and is expected to touch the bottom
in 2013. In 2014, the rate may pick up to 5.5-6.0% and hold stable for some time.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015*
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Added No.... Increase rate
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
Proportion of major Chinese producers’ capacities (%)
�There is a large number of suppliers dominated by the market mechanism. However, with
regard to industrial majors...
Jiangsu Hengli4.25%
Zhejiang Tongkun4.85%
Zhejiang Rongsheng2.55%
Xianglu Tenglong1.55%
Others, 67%Total of seven majors
33%
Zhejiang Hengyi6.15%
Sinopec8.50%
Sanfangxiang5.15%
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
18
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
35
Sharp decrease of trading value in autumn
� The trading value of the
Fair in autumn 2012 fell
by 9.3% from the last
session.
� Trading value of textile
and apparel fell by 15.5%
from the last session.
� There are diverges in
opinions regarding these
data.
Trading Values in the Canton Fair ($100 million)
305
343349
368.6379
360.3
326.8315.5
382.3374.4
322.2
340.6
363.9
262.3
36.540.5
45.6 46.541.3 41.5
35.133.636.5
49.956.3758.4
54.152.1
200
250
300
350
400
2006spring
2006autumn
2007spring
2007autumn
2008spring
2008autumn
2009spring
2009autumn
2010spring
2010autumn
2011spring
2011autumn
2012spring
2012autumn
0
20
40
60
80
100
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — industrial environment
� New stimulating policies of Europe and the US?
� Crude oil prices holding firm or inching down?
� Consumption speed of inventory (end-users’ inventory in particular)?
� Possibility of a lot of suppliers quitting?
� Impact from sales promotion of new plants?
� Improvement in cotton supply/demand fundamental in new marketing year?
� Significant changes in China economic policies?
� Speculators missing no chance to hype the market by utilizing futures and other tools.
� Unexpected accidents such as hurricane and explosion
�Market is unlikely to see remarkable volatility as neither push nor pull factors
could gain the upper hand at present.
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — major factors
19
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
What can we learn from sewing thread market?
Indexes of China sewing thread market
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
18500
19000
19500
20000
3-2
3-16
3-30
4-13
4-27
5-11
5-25 6-
8
6-22 7-
6
7-20 8-
3
8-17
8-31
9-14
9-28
10-1
9
11-2
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Price Run Rate Inventory
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — major factors
Prices Tracking Cost
� Prices for polyester
products are at a
comparatively low level
� Prices mainly tracked
cost changes
� Prices fluctuate within a
small range tracking
feedstock when crude oil
price is stable
� A high coherence with
PTA price trend
Price trends of SD chip, PSF and PFY since 2006 (Yuan/ton)
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
SD chip 1.4D PSF
75D PFY
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — forecast
20
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
� Margin of most products are at or below break-even point
� Availability won’t completely mirror capacity increase given lower run rates
� More plants suffering losses
� Most plants struggle to maintain operation, while a few chose or were forced to shut
down
� … …
�Plenty availability and low costs of raw materials may help downstream textile
enterprises to achieve a slow recovery.
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — forecast
A slow downstream recovery?
Price changes of grey fabrics T/C 65/35 45×45 110×76 (yuan/meter)
3.723.43
4.87
6.2
5.01
4.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
� Lower raw material costs
� Economic growth going
stable
� Withering investment
� ……
III. Limited highlights in 2013 polyester fiber market — forecast
21
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
IV. Strategies and suggestions under the tough situation— inside-industry cooperation
Lower rates to reduce loss
� Polyester resin/fiber market will again face a long tough time
� Low rates to cope with supply surplus —few suppliers to entirely shut down
� Blind price competition ruins enterprise itself as well as the whole industry and downstream consumers
� Cooperation inside the industry is a necessity
1
Sustained supply to maintain customers
� Sustain supply to regular customers
� A higher proportion of direct-supply customers and fewer supplies to distributors
� Before shutdown, stock up certain inventory for customers
� Notice of shutdown to customers in advance
2
Be a term feedstock supplier
� Stable supply helps improve competitiveness
� Term suppliers facilitate feedstock sourcing
� Stable product quality
� Lower feedstock inventory to save costs
� Better discounts, better services
Product innovation
� China is losing its edge of low labor costs to neighboring countries
� Innovation is the life of products
� Face the challenges and upgrade your products
� Work with your feedstock suppliers to catch up with market demand changes
� Brand building is a necessity
3
4
IV. Strategies and suggestions under the tough situation— downstream consumers
22
9th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum
� Sinopec provides you a wide scope of differentiated specs of high quality that add more value to your products.
� Sinopec provides you all-round customer services to facilitate your purchasing.
Sales Volume of Sinopec’s PSF (by specs) in 2011Z
W10
1
ZW
310
ZW
119
WF
310
FR
358
ZW
102
ZW
114
FR
211
YT
331
WF
320
WF
313
ZW
11A
ZW
113
ZW
110
ZW
100
ZW
122
FR
200
ZW
116
FR
711
ZW
341
WF
311
ZW
117
FR
361
ZW
111
ZW
125
WF
341
WF
323A
ZW
160
QY
18
Sales Vol.
IV. Strategies and suggestions under the tough situation— Sinopec
E-mail: [email protected]