Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)
(FY 2016-2020)
Shizuka HashimotoIntegrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S),
The University of Tokyo
The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund
Ministry of the Environment, Japan
1
Trend of population
2
Pop
ulat
ion
(thou
sand
)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Population (thousand)
20-40. mil. decrease of pop. by 2050
96,205 89,526
104,433
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
(thousand people)
Medium mortality/Medium birth rate
Low mortality/High birth rate
High mortality/Low birth rate
Population estimation(by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Year
Trend of population and aging
4
% o
f peo
ple
over
65
Pop
ulat
ion
(thou
sand
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Population (thousand)
of people over 65
Societal challenges
Economic challenges
Increased dependence on oversea products
Ageing/depopulation
Unclear cadastral information
Rural-urban migration
Pressure of trade liberalization
Increase of alien species
ThreatsErosion of cultural heritage/indigenous knowledge
Human-wildlife conflict
Disaster due to poor land management
Loss of biodiversity
5
Challenges and threats associated withland and ecosystems of Japan
Decline of agricultural price
Land abandonment
Road to PANCES:Relevant Assessments up till Today Japan Biodiversity Outlook (JBO) (2008-2010)
Conducted by the expert committee established by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan
Focused mainly on the conditions and trend biodiversity with timeframe from 1960-2010
Japan Satoyama-Satoumi Assessment (2006-2010) Initiated by UNU as a follow-up SGA of MA Focused mainly on the conditions and trend of
ecosystem services, relied mainly on statistics Timeframe: 1960-2050 with qualitative scenarios
Japan Biodiversity Outlook2 (JBO2) (2014-2015) 2nd round of JBO by the expert committee under the MoE Covered both biodiversity and ecosystem services No future projection nor scenario analysis
6
Backed by Data
Without supporting data
7
Backed by Data
Without supporting data
8
Limitations of existing assessments
Limitations include but not limited to Evaluation of cultural services Ecosystem services contribution to human well-being Valuation of total economic value of ecosystem services Relationship between natural capital and ecosystem services Implication of alternative development pathways (scenarios)
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Objectives of PANCES
Develop an integrated model of social-ecological systems to predict and assess natural and socio-economic values of natural capital and ecosystem services under different future scenarios of socio-economic conditions and policy options;
Design a new conceptual framework to promote multilevel governance of natural capital to maintain and improve inclusive wellbeing;
Examine effectiveness and applicability of the integrated assessment modelto other areas in Japan and beyond.
Objectives
Past related activities
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Framework of the PANCES Project
Drivers (direct & indirect)
Crises that biodiversity and ecosystem services are confronting in Japan
Crisis 1: Overuse
Crisis 4: Global changes
Crisis 3: Invasive spp.
Crisis 2: Underuse
Contribution to sustainable development and the inclusive wellbeing based on the mid-long term assessment and projection
Depopulation Land use change Underuse Science and
Technology Trade, etc.
< Assessment and projection of natural values from ecosystem services>
Climate change Ocean acidification Natural disasters, etc.
Theme 2. Terrestrial ESs Theme 3. Marine ESs
Theme 4.
Theme 1. Development of an integrated model of social-ecologicalsystems and scenario analysis
Feasibility study of other Asian areas
Provisioning
Assessment and projection of socio-economic values of ESs
Multilevel governance of natural capital and inclusive wellbeing
Regulating CulturalNatural Capital
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Framework of PANCES Scenarios and Models
Demography & Industry Sub-model
Land Use Sub-model
Natural Capital
Sub-model
EconomicScience,
TechnologySocial
institutionsFood
demandInternationaltrade,etc.
Key Driving Forces
Future Scenarios(sub-theme 1-1)
Basic Framework(sub-theme 1-2)
Climate Changes &
Ocean Acidification
Inclusive Well-being
Natural Values
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Services
Marine Ecosystem
Services
Parameteri
zation
Treetraits
PolicyOptions/MultilevelGovernance(governanceindicators,innovativefundingmechanism)
Sensitivitytoclimatechanges
Adaptationdistributioncapacity
Laborpopulationbysector
Concentratedordistributed
Urban,greenspace,farmland,grassland,woodland,waterbody,coastalport
Potentialcapacity,actualhumanuse
RiverbasininteractionsNutrients,sediments,creatures
Cropvariety
LocalizedInclusivewealthindex
Socio-Economic
Values
Localfoodculture,OceanHealthIndex
Shadowvalue,Naturalcapitalaccounting
JSSA(2012)Foreststock,fisherystock
Potentialcapacity,actualhumanuse
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Linking Models for AssessingEcosystem Functions/Services and HWB
(theme 1~4)
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Marine Ecosystem
Primary,secondaryproductioncapacity
Sensitivitytoclimatechanges
Adaptationdistributioncapacity
LandUseAnthropogenicAssets NaturalCapital
ChangesinLanduseandLandcoversSpatialpredictionsRemotesensingdata
ChangesinNaturalCapitalNaturalcapitalstock(Forest,Agriculture,Marineresources),StatisticsandInventoriesCensusofAgricultureandForestry
ModellingESsinTheme2(Terrestrial)3(Marine) , ScioeconomicvaluationsinTheme4
DemographicandIndustrialStructuresSubmodel LandUseSubmodel
NaturalCapitalSubmodel
Populationsandlaborforceinurban,suburban,ruralarea
LandcoverandLanduse:Urban,Agriculturalland(paddy,cropsandfruitfarm),Bamboo,Managedforest,Naturalforest,Grassland,Watersurface(river,pond),harboretc.
StockassessmentonForestry,Agriculture,Fishery(seeweedbed,coralreef,tidelandetc.)
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ChangesinDirect/IndirectDriversPopulationdistribution,IndustrialstructuresStochasticpredictions
Haga etal.(2016
2010 2050
Hashimoto(2016)
2010 2050 2010 2050
NationalLandNumericalInformation(Futureprospects)
Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios
Example of modeling exercises
FutureScenariosforNaturalandSocioEconomicValuesofNaturalCapitalandEcosystemServices
1) National-scale scenarios
2) Local scenarios at case study sites
Develop national scenarios taking into account major challenges such as climate change/ocean acidification and demographic and socio-economic changes
Employ Story-and-Simulation approach
Develop participatory scenarios reflecting diverse views of local stakeholders, traditional and local knowledge
Selected Sado Island as the pilot study area for participatory scenario exercise and organized a preparatory meetings with gov. officials for the exercise
SadoIslandNoto Peninsula
(relevance to urban areas)
Okinawa Islands
Hokkaido
MOEJ
Preparatory meeting with officials of Sado 14
MultilevelNestedGovernance ofNaturalCapital
Localcollaborations(Bottomup)
Localcommunities NPOs
Multilevelgovernanceofnaturalcapital
Stakeholder
PANCES also explores a mechanism for cooperative management of natural capital based on nested collaboration among different stakeholders
Global/Regional/National
Local
Localgovt Universities
Governmentsinitiatives(topdown)
UNRegional
communities
Multinationalcompanies
Stakeholder
Nations
Aidagencies
Farmers,foresters,fishers
Stakeholder
Urbanresidents
Stakeholder
Coops
StakeholderStakeholder
Smallenterprises
Stakeholder
Stakeholder
IntlNGOs
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Expected Outputs and Outcomes[Outputs] Inputs to CBD, IPBES regional and global assessments,
Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) , and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation (IPCC).
Contributions to national and local biodiversity strategy action plans in Japan.
[Outcomes] Promote implementation of Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) and localization of Inclusive Wealth Index. Collaborate with international global environment research
initiatives such as Future Earth. Contribute to the establishment of Green Economy in Asian
region through efforts in International SATOYAMA Initiative. Contribute to revitalization of rural economy as Japans urgent
issue through developing new business models and multilevel governance of natural capital.
TheNationalBiodiversityStrat
