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  • Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)

    (FY 2016-2020)

    Shizuka HashimotoIntegrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S),

    The University of Tokyo

    The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund

    Ministry of the Environment, Japan

    1

    Trend of population

    2

    Pop

    ulat

    ion

    (thou

    sand

    )

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    140,000

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

    Population (thousand)

  • 20-40. mil. decrease of pop. by 2050

    96,205 89,526

    104,433

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    140,000

    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

    (thousand people)

    Medium mortality/Medium birth rate

    Low mortality/High birth rate

    High mortality/Low birth rate

    Population estimation(by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

    Year

    Trend of population and aging

    4

    % o

    f peo

    ple

    over

    65

    Pop

    ulat

    ion

    (thou

    sand

    )

    0

    5

    10

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    20

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    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    140,000

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

    Population (thousand)

    of people over 65

  • Societal challenges

    Economic challenges

    Increased dependence on oversea products

    Ageing/depopulation

    Unclear cadastral information

    Rural-urban migration

    Pressure of trade liberalization

    Increase of alien species

    ThreatsErosion of cultural heritage/indigenous knowledge

    Human-wildlife conflict

    Disaster due to poor land management

    Loss of biodiversity

    5

    Challenges and threats associated withland and ecosystems of Japan

    Decline of agricultural price

    Land abandonment

    Road to PANCES:Relevant Assessments up till Today Japan Biodiversity Outlook (JBO) (2008-2010)

    Conducted by the expert committee established by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan

    Focused mainly on the conditions and trend biodiversity with timeframe from 1960-2010

    Japan Satoyama-Satoumi Assessment (2006-2010) Initiated by UNU as a follow-up SGA of MA Focused mainly on the conditions and trend of

    ecosystem services, relied mainly on statistics Timeframe: 1960-2050 with qualitative scenarios

    Japan Biodiversity Outlook2 (JBO2) (2014-2015) 2nd round of JBO by the expert committee under the MoE Covered both biodiversity and ecosystem services No future projection nor scenario analysis

    6

  • Backed by Data

    Without supporting data

    7

    Backed by Data

    Without supporting data

    8

  • Limitations of existing assessments

    Limitations include but not limited to Evaluation of cultural services Ecosystem services contribution to human well-being Valuation of total economic value of ecosystem services Relationship between natural capital and ecosystem services Implication of alternative development pathways (scenarios)

    9

    Objectives of PANCES

    Develop an integrated model of social-ecological systems to predict and assess natural and socio-economic values of natural capital and ecosystem services under different future scenarios of socio-economic conditions and policy options;

    Design a new conceptual framework to promote multilevel governance of natural capital to maintain and improve inclusive wellbeing;

    Examine effectiveness and applicability of the integrated assessment modelto other areas in Japan and beyond.

    Objectives

    Past related activities

    10

  • Framework of the PANCES Project

    Drivers (direct & indirect)

    Crises that biodiversity and ecosystem services are confronting in Japan

    Crisis 1: Overuse

    Crisis 4: Global changes

    Crisis 3: Invasive spp.

    Crisis 2: Underuse

    Contribution to sustainable development and the inclusive wellbeing based on the mid-long term assessment and projection

    Depopulation Land use change Underuse Science and

    Technology Trade, etc.

    < Assessment and projection of natural values from ecosystem services>

    Climate change Ocean acidification Natural disasters, etc.

    Theme 2. Terrestrial ESs Theme 3. Marine ESs

    Theme 4.

    Theme 1. Development of an integrated model of social-ecologicalsystems and scenario analysis

    Feasibility study of other Asian areas

    Provisioning

    Assessment and projection of socio-economic values of ESs

    Multilevel governance of natural capital and inclusive wellbeing

    Regulating CulturalNatural Capital

    11

    Framework of PANCES Scenarios and Models

    Demography & Industry Sub-model

    Land Use Sub-model

    Natural Capital

    Sub-model

    EconomicScience,

    TechnologySocial

    institutionsFood

    demandInternationaltrade,etc.

    Key Driving Forces

    Future Scenarios(sub-theme 1-1)

    Basic Framework(sub-theme 1-2)

    Climate Changes &

    Ocean Acidification

    Inclusive Well-being

    Natural Values

    Terrestrial Ecosystem

    Services

    Marine Ecosystem

    Services

    Parameteri

    zation

    Treetraits

    PolicyOptions/MultilevelGovernance(governanceindicators,innovativefundingmechanism)

    Sensitivitytoclimatechanges

    Adaptationdistributioncapacity

    Laborpopulationbysector

    Concentratedordistributed

    Urban,greenspace,farmland,grassland,woodland,waterbody,coastalport

    Potentialcapacity,actualhumanuse

    RiverbasininteractionsNutrients,sediments,creatures

    Cropvariety

    LocalizedInclusivewealthindex

    Socio-Economic

    Values

    Localfoodculture,OceanHealthIndex

    Shadowvalue,Naturalcapitalaccounting

    JSSA(2012)Foreststock,fisherystock

    Potentialcapacity,actualhumanuse

    12

    Linking Models for AssessingEcosystem Functions/Services and HWB

    (theme 1~4)

    Terrestrial Ecosystem

    Marine Ecosystem

    Primary,secondaryproductioncapacity

    Sensitivitytoclimatechanges

    Adaptationdistributioncapacity

  • LandUseAnthropogenicAssets NaturalCapital

    ChangesinLanduseandLandcoversSpatialpredictionsRemotesensingdata

    ChangesinNaturalCapitalNaturalcapitalstock(Forest,Agriculture,Marineresources),StatisticsandInventoriesCensusofAgricultureandForestry

    ModellingESsinTheme2(Terrestrial)3(Marine) , ScioeconomicvaluationsinTheme4

    DemographicandIndustrialStructuresSubmodel LandUseSubmodel

    NaturalCapitalSubmodel

    Populationsandlaborforceinurban,suburban,ruralarea

    LandcoverandLanduse:Urban,Agriculturalland(paddy,cropsandfruitfarm),Bamboo,Managedforest,Naturalforest,Grassland,Watersurface(river,pond),harboretc.

    StockassessmentonForestry,Agriculture,Fishery(seeweedbed,coralreef,tidelandetc.)

    13

    ChangesinDirect/IndirectDriversPopulationdistribution,IndustrialstructuresStochasticpredictions

    Haga etal.(2016

    2010 2050

    Hashimoto(2016)

    2010 2050 2010 2050

    NationalLandNumericalInformation(Futureprospects)

    Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios

    Example of modeling exercises

    FutureScenariosforNaturalandSocioEconomicValuesofNaturalCapitalandEcosystemServices

    1) National-scale scenarios

    2) Local scenarios at case study sites

    Develop national scenarios taking into account major challenges such as climate change/ocean acidification and demographic and socio-economic changes

    Employ Story-and-Simulation approach

    Develop participatory scenarios reflecting diverse views of local stakeholders, traditional and local knowledge

    Selected Sado Island as the pilot study area for participatory scenario exercise and organized a preparatory meetings with gov. officials for the exercise

    SadoIslandNoto Peninsula

    (relevance to urban areas)

    Okinawa Islands

    Hokkaido

    MOEJ

    Preparatory meeting with officials of Sado 14

  • MultilevelNestedGovernance ofNaturalCapital

    Localcollaborations(Bottomup)

    Localcommunities NPOs

    Multilevelgovernanceofnaturalcapital

    Stakeholder

    PANCES also explores a mechanism for cooperative management of natural capital based on nested collaboration among different stakeholders

    Global/Regional/National

    Local

    Localgovt Universities

    Governmentsinitiatives(topdown)

    UNRegional

    communities

    Multinationalcompanies

    Stakeholder

    Nations

    Aidagencies

    Farmers,foresters,fishers

    Stakeholder

    Urbanresidents

    Stakeholder

    Coops

    StakeholderStakeholder

    Smallenterprises

    Stakeholder

    Stakeholder

    IntlNGOs

    15

    Expected Outputs and Outcomes[Outputs] Inputs to CBD, IPBES regional and global assessments,

    Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) , and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation (IPCC).

    Contributions to national and local biodiversity strategy action plans in Japan.

    [Outcomes] Promote implementation of Sustainable Development Goals

    (SDGs) and localization of Inclusive Wealth Index. Collaborate with international global environment research

    initiatives such as Future Earth. Contribute to the establishment of Green Economy in Asian

    region through efforts in International SATOYAMA Initiative. Contribute to revitalization of rural economy as Japans urgent

    issue through developing new business models and multilevel governance of natural capital.

    TheNationalBiodiversityStrat