Upload
meno
View
223
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
1/130
!"#$%&'!&()Risk Management
*+,-'.+,/0*+1/(.-21345&06#75&'!&()8"49-
21345&06#75&'!&(:;61%&;
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
2/130
;1*H1
!"#$%&'()*+,%-./01213%45(6+(78*9(01:',;2;5?@AB5B3C0!;>D013CE01F)GH*I$J,/(*J01KCL6MNO$J(%P1!"QRN3STU8*9(01#$V*
.$WE%36X6TY;Z2'D)01
3@(D6TU:2004 :$%!"!='=$ST!@GOY[\;F[,@]1+048*9(01#'R25B3C0T^$/C011Q_5_$)6`'GT.#$V]11Q_!"8,*$D01a>JRTaO3S+,%8*9(01F%$Ebc$V=>6'/Bd*3;."F%$EA01eQ_fVEB+(7d[0T862'D)01d*g;h9;P23%Y?i\B!"
.5,D(01T5Wj01!_dW]1eQ_>6'/B!"a'/R#TNTU$W;F/JB>]1dW]1k2$J]$;g*$]43D;l0$/01:'C6m?L;O$/Rn1aO124 C]1!"8*9(,0F?G$Gn1$@;) $W*3p()6!(01q>/015_9;5,6!(7O$/Rn1aO12r;:$]s1#.Rd*F?@,D01gtO13*
.!*'C012$A(Ss1F6'CBT5%2!"5_$)6$@*O$/Rn1aO12s(8*9(01 $W?"I1>u$L]1O1'V;M'[?0*8GO1301+,%lV6T
8*9(01!" &>Rn1vw1>]1xD;ay1>S+04F"$u4I$Jw1'0$; :$@(_s1lEw+04$JEwF\S$E]1l=$V;M'[?G1Q_vJ/0$;T.gE*'w>]1&'()]1+04l0$/01YA6+(7z0{T
F,|GN+,%F;$ws$;>u$L]1 $?Sl=$V;$}6NTa>u$L]1y$E~NI$%'@V*d6'[BT
CD ! 6 C K ! 6
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
3/130
.8GO1301
O$J(Rsa>?ASF,|GN+04F"$u4cT>\01TI$j6>D(01!G1O301-$([01d@}(6Tc1>(S4T>?[j(01+,%-./01X?jLBT$W(G1O25B!(01I$%'u'@,0-./01-$D?(G4&3*
.$W0'7O1'L01TF\S$E]1-$;f("T#',L01TO$["n1!(01T-./01`O$D*>J(pB!(01F,|Gn1d*F%'@V*3w'6yXwYtF6$W=!"T
.$W0!0$(01yXV01+04#$C(=s1YJS$W,L;fAE=M$t1{48*9(01:',;2!V6>p0F?EW]1TF?">L01d*!0$D01&'()]1KCLB`'GT
.8*9(01^$/C0F"$u4M'[6+(7X?@(01T5?,D(01!"FJ>01hO1301&30.zB$?7!"O'/(01Tc$VE01KCLB![05@bJ011Q_T
FEW]q./=s1F/C=g0FJ)E0$;M'[BT:',;3011Q_d*v?@V013?j()6MN1'%3=T.F6XV*TFC?
:LMN+O5;D(01TO$/Rn1aO12sF?,@D01TF?@,D01k2$J]$;hO1301:$]4.F?,@D01a$?L01!"$W(GO$@*-',GNf?u'BT(8*9(01$W?"$@;)O$/Rn1aO124
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
4/130
;1*H1
+,%aO3SF?L01I$E$[01>tN'_ M$)=s1M'[6 MN +0$DBTg=$LJGK0$p0121ONY}"d* M$tTU-$J0n1!0T9;5_$@GTM'[01!">;3(0$;h$E011>*N3C0Y;U>?[j(01I1',b3@L* $=3?G:$(p01z)* M$t 5~5W(613W0YG>015W0 YGONMN>\J01+,%1>?p01K6>$E0fuTm?756>[01M>C01!_T&>J[01aXVD]$;y$wm?7g?,%g*.GT1FV?(= 5WE* Yt Y@L(6 MN +,% (O1>C01 {$pB1) O$?(RP1 F6>7 5W0 >BT >\01 K6>TO1>SYtMnF$)J01F6$!"$E_>*n1TU(Y13;a3%8;d*O1>C01{$pB1\01 K6>T ($WB$wO2 j,(R1 M4T) FEV01 +04 Z3W6 >?p01 K6>/" :a23L* FV?(= g0R10SKTNOU"VW5"XA+YR1" :+0$DB#$S.($WB$6'()*I23DBM4T)O$E01+04q')6
.""M?t S1'* gB$?7 Y71>* #.R M$)=s1 gw1'6 d[0T5,D6 ZQ01 '_ e37T 1 MnT (Y13; a3%) S1'*a3% 8; d* (O1>S {$pB1) 8D* S'*O1>S Yt +,% FJB>(]1C01{$pB1F6>L;eX?@BT>?[j(01+,%M$)=s1aO3Sd*5>01+,%T!"g,DV6YJC()]1!"3L?G$]FC?S301F">D]1+,%M$)=s1aO3S:3%MNP4(IP$L01:["\F&AC01{$pB1aOT>ud*5>0$;1Q_g?,%3)L6PS'*
O1>ST U$W; FG1O3,0FE?D* F?,t O$?(R1 O1>ST UFwT M'[(0 FE?D* a$(" O$?(R1 O1>SeQ_ Yt Ug?" #1'*n1 O$@(GP 8D* #$V* O$?(R1 O1>ST U$W; Y@D,0 FE?D* Fj?T O$?(R1d* FV?(= ZN ZO36 P '_T $_Qp(6 MN d* M$)=0 3;P a>?t &>RN I1O1>ST I1O1>C01
.3LB 'GO1>SYt+,%FJB>(]1C01
{$pB1.F6XV*o>"^$?uF?D?J/01 >_1'01 d* 363D01 2'w'0 1>= M$)=0 OQD01 @(,= MN lV6 d[0TeQW0 #$@tT UgB$?7 +,%T Y; g(LbT gB$[,(@*T g,R2 +,% $WCCLB F0$7 !" >~HB !(01a$?7!">~HB>_1'01eQ_TUa$"'01U>]1UO$Vj=P1UK6>L01UFS>)01U'/)01:>_1'01+04Z2HB3S!0$(0$;TFE?D*F@?C;TNFE?D* a>("#.R$WCCLBF?=$[*4m?7d*M$)=s1
.lG$E]1S'01!"TlG$E]1O1>C01{$pB1:3%TNO1>C01{$pB1d%g*$V74TNe22>B:3CB d* gJ7$b $*T IP$V]1 +( !" Y$W01 !@,D01 :3C(01 d* 5>01 +,%T!EDBPO'*n1eQ_YtMNP45?,D(01O$\(=1d*5>01+,%$}6NTU!@,D01HJE(01l?0$GN#.RT O1>C01{$pB1y$E~N2'w'* K,C0$"!0$(0$;T 3t9(01+04YABFwO3;HJE(01 d[@6 g=N1>=T gV$(= d* FV?(= ZN T37 TN g*3% d* 2$L01 T3L;K,D(6 $@?" O$(=P1 a>("?E;!(01F*$W01I$*$%30137NY@6g=n1>=>/p01aO124q>5_Nd*3D68*9(01Mn
O1>C(G1 !" #$D" Y[\; 5_$G g=nT UF?7$= d* m63L01 >AD01 !" aO$}L01 $W?,%+,%$G$GN:'C68*9(01Mn 1>=TUF62$A(Ss1a$?L01O$_21TY;F?%$@(wP1^$uTn15_Nd*>J(D68*9(01a2$%4I$?,@%#.Rd* !0T301&'()]1+,%eO$\(=1Mr"MT$D(01d* 8*9(01T >/p01 aO124a2$* I>J(%1 aO$V(01I$?,t Mr" z0Q0T U!0T301 MT$D(01 >_$*M$t 1Q0T F?,@D01 $WB$C?J/BT F6>E01 $W2$J@; 5,6 MN l0$/01 +,% lV6 !(01 21']1 8;>/p01 aO124 k2$J*T GN y$GO4 !" vu1'(]1 3WV01 1QW; _$)= MN $E?,% $*1X0
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
5/130
.8*9(01T
I$%'u']1T #'Aj01 +,% 0H]1 eQ_ !" 8*9(01T >/p01 aO124 a2$* Z'(LBT:F?B1
.gB$@?)CBT>/p016>DB:[0%&A^T5&.>/p01h$?S>b$E%:_`"\5&A^T5&
.>/p01h$?Sq>:a5"\5&A^T5&.>/p01aO124q>:bc&65&A^T5&
.>/p01aO12sFJG$E]1FC6>/01363LB:d1"75&A^T5&
[0%&A^T5&Se"+6?e
>/p01F@,[0Fj,(p]1I$*13p(Gs1
>/p016>DB>/p01I$jb>/p01^1'=N
$W%1'=N- $Wj6>DB:>/p01I$JJ)*
21'L01$W%1'=N- $Wj6>DB:aO$)p01
o$pn1a$?7!">/p012'wT>~NaO'/p01 FwO2 I1{ IP$V]1 xD; v* Y*$D(01 F?@_N
F?0$D01
[0%&A^T5&Se"+6?e
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
6/130
a3%!"T+ED*d*>tNd%>?JD(,0F?*'?01a$?L01!">/p01F@,t:3p()B:+04$W@?)CBd[@6!=$D]1eQ_TS1'*
0-;>EN?1;5",RY6?JD(,0>/p01F@,t:13p(G4z0{#$*T:;("1;5",RY6/p01
:;>("10;>EN?1;5",RY6Gn1
F?)jE01F0$L01!"F,@(*F6'ED*aO$)R>/p01KCLB+,%YR3013C"!"F,@(]1F62$]1aO$)p01+04F"$us$;F|?)01
Fj,[BTNg,@%d*']1a>Gn1-Og?,%YAL6M$tZQ01.F?;>*+,%#'AL01Fj,[BTNF?=$~a>*1TX01
Risk Defined :
6#75&
f>6?eMT2TU>/p016>DB363LB!">/p01aO124!"8AAp(]1y$@,D01,(R4F~.~+04$W@?)CBd[@6g=r"$W0FWw']1I12$C(=P1T6O$D(01eQ_Y?b$jB!"#'R301
:^1'=N.Z2$]1l=$V01#$j4v*>/p,0Z'ED]1l=$V01+,%IXtO6O$DB:[0%&IEN5&
.Z'ED]1l=$V01#$j4v*>/p,0Z2$]1l=$V01+,%IXtO6O$DB:_`"\5&IEN5&.$D*Z2$]1TZ'ED]1l=$V01+,%IXtO6O$DB:a5"\5&IEN5&
:_O>"+g6#75&f>6?eR=+>S`iU"`6j`;MD0R10
;?JE4F&6k"K7O5;("F&6k"K75&B0"@eR1PE75&EQ6#75&).(lD"T1m(",;@"+cf>6?45&&nQ.0
3E%p\01$W?,%M'[6!(01F6'ED]1F0$L016>D(01>J6-1.`'p01F0$7!_T$*O1>S{$pB1
F62$]1aO$)p01T$VB'_T`'p01F0$7lJG6>D(01fu'6-2.FDS'(]1aO$)p,0F?,Dj01
T37d*`'p01'_?0>/p01MN6>D(01d*f}(6-3^'S'013tH*$W?">/p01M'[6IP$7$E_MnaO$)p01
!"T$VBT37'_>/p01MNfu'66>D(01d[0Ta$"'0$t
)?0a$"'01MN!ED61Q_TFDS'(]1aO$)p,0F?,Dj01aO$)p01$@,["Ua$"'01T376O$B!"Y@(6>/p01d[0T>/p01!_p\01gDS'(6ZQ01d)01d%>[J*dG!"a$"'01~37
.aO$)p01I21$@,t$WCCLB+,%lB>(6!(01O$/Rn1+,%6>D(01Xt>6-4F6'ED*aO$)R$W?,%lB>(6ZQ01O$/Rn1$*NF62$*aO$)R$W=r"!G$?G5?%TN!%$@(w1f,A*TNK63ba$"TY*I3wT1{4P4$?@t$WG$?SF;'DA0$E(G1O2q$/=d%>pBF62$A(Ss1F6>E01!"a2'w']1z,(tZ'ED*h$?SI137T
.FDjE]1h$?C02$7T37d%D(01fu'61>?RNT-5
!"a21O4O1>C01Qp(]?0TgCCLB6O$B:',D*>?ZNw$j*.g*3%d*g~T37
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
7/130
:6#75&G"TX:"M+Q-G"T^5&R1;YE+@+c.S`-op4>6#7O5qc"K5&f>6?45&R1
.F?0$@(7s1TN3t9(01:3%-1.w$j*2$7FV?(=M'[6-2
3-YJC()]1!"3L6.4- F62$*aO$)RgCCLB+,%lB>(6.
:G"T^5&rnQR1;TXA=5o"+/p01I$jb5_Nd*:^1'=N
:IEJE5&'*gt1m(&E,-1/1$D*M$[]1TM$*X01m?7d*TNM$[]1m?7d*y1'G$W~T37d*3;P!(0121'L01!_T
!"M$)=4Zna$"'012$7Tq>\]1d*@\01^',^'S'01a3tH]1137n1#$*T#$*T>/R3w'6Pg=r"^'S'013tH*2$L01M$t1{4g=NF7.*lV6TUY6'/01Ywn1
O>C6MNTNUF"T>D*FV?(E01T$%>)*'_TO$/C01>?GR+,%pC6MNz0{3w'6Pg=r"^'S'01a3tH]121'L,0FJ)E0$;TUa>]$;a>t1Q*MT3;M$L(*P1#'R2p
F"T>D*$W(V?(=Mn$*$@B$WE%2$D(;P1O>C6 'G3?t9(0$;g=nM$)=s1gw1'6>/R.(>jbZT$)6ZN) $*3DE*M'[6>/p01MN!ED61Q_T$*3C*
:IEJE5&;Ot1Q*
1Q_TgCCLBF0$L(G1$*3C*5,D6p\01Mn$}6N>/R3w'6Pg=r"FC;$)01IP$L01.$*3DE*M'[6>/p01MN$}6N!ED6
:(;/R$E_M'[6+(7
d%36XB) f?LA01371'01T>jA018;cT1>(B#$@(7s1F@?SMNZNT3L01Y?L()*TNa3tH]121'L,0FJ)E0$;$ELuTNMNKJG$@tg=n(f?LA01371'01d%YCBT>jA01
8;#$@(7s1F@?ScT1>(B$*3E%TU:3DEB>/p01F@?SMr"T3L01a3tH]1>?21'L011{4$@*e3t9B:3D01>=K,C01d*F0$7!"?D6M$)=s1Mr"f?LA01371'01T>jA01a3%3w'B3Sg=N$@tU(P:NFE?D*a>("#.R3L?GTN) P:N3L6 'G2$L01M$tp$E630M$t 1{4z0{#$*TKCL(6 'G$WE*ZNZO36P'_T2$L01KCL(0gwTN
UP:N3L?Gg=N13tH*?02$L011Q_d[0T:2$A(01>/p0Fu>D*!W"aO$?Gz,(@6g?Ew1000 :N100 aO$)p01F@?SM'[(GY_$*3C*23L=MNv?/()=P$E=r"371{4T
.3t9(01:3%$W?,%K,/6!(01!_F0$L01eQ_T&>RNF@?SZNTNg?Ew10000 :N:lD"T1m(",;@-2
;1"?5&0-;
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
8/130
:ACH4KF&_Um*W>-33tH*>?ZN$?0$@(74$=>t{MNKJG$@tM'[6MN3;."1>/R$E_M'[6+(7
M$t1{r"3D;vC6502$L01M$t1{4P4+B9(6P1Q_T^'S'01Y?L()*>?T^'S'01.>/R3w'6."!0$(0$;T#$@(743w'6Pg=N!ED61Q_Mr"z0{$E@,%TvST3S2$L01
>/p0$;Z>LJ018*9(01!"`>D6$*'_T3D;2$L01^'ST:3D0FJ)E0$;y$E(G4$E_T>D(B3SdL\01y$E?*d*FE?j)01O$L;43D;TF%$}J01dL5(63Sm?7!E01
x6'D(01KL()6g=r"2$L0$Wu>D(;g,@%:3%v*$W?,%8*9(01z0$]1l,1{r"2$L08*9(01+,%3S$D(01ST2$L0$;5,D6d[650g=N$]$2$L01T3L;g@,%F0$7!"
.;s1F;'DA0TFb$RFD?Jd*g;X?@(6$]1>=Z>LJ018*9(0$;o$Ry$E(G41Q_T).(
#$ABP1
OQD(0
g%'ST
O'"
2$L01
d%
M$?7n1
xD;
!",bT3SFE?j)01MN8*9(01Ft>5,%+04$@=3S3S$D(01STM$t1{4g=r"Y;$C]1!"TMNF%$}J01z0$*K7d*M'[6g=r"F%$}J01+,%8*9(01YJS#'b'01y$E?*+04F]$G
.8*9(01)S2>()6:;-4
TNYR301!"!XV01TN!,[01CE01) Financial Loss F?0$]1aO$)p0$;3AC6.(kO$2$7KCLBlJ);aT>01
g?,%lB>(6ZQ01>/p0$;$E(G1O2!"5(W=$E=NK;$)016>D(01d*7.=T6>DBq$/=d%>p6g=r"F6'ED*aO$)Rg?,%lB>(6ZQ01>/p01$*NF?0$*aO$)R
1{4P4F6'ED]1aO$)p01h$?S$=>t{MNKJG$@tlDA6m?7$E(G1O2#$V*!">/p01.M'62$A(SP1$W*3p()6!(01FDjE]1?6$C*>$EBZ'ED*h$?SI137TI3wT
:!"#$%&I&E`-:2YE`]5);1"Y;T^c!"#$%&{KHNe
Non Economic Risks :;>("^4J&6EN?1!"#$--1$_13D(BPd[0Tp\,0F?)jE01F0$L01+,%$_>?~9BlAE6!(01O$/Rn1!_
TNK63ba$"Td*`'p01UF6'ED]1O$/Rn1Y*TUF62$A(Ss1!71'E01+,%>?~9(01+04O$/Rn1d*F%'@V]1eQ_TUFE?D*a>("#.R!%$@(w1f,A*TN!E62TN!G$?G5?%
FS3;$WG$?Sd[@6Pg=r"e>t{KJG$@tT.^$@(wP15,%TjE01+,%$W(G1O3;(p6.FDjE]1h$?S!"F*3p()]1T2$A(SP15,%!"a2'w']1z,(t?6$C*I3wT1{4P4O$/RN+04#'L(B3SF62$A(Ss1>?TNF6'ED]1O$/Rn1MNF7.*lV6T
Y@D01+04-$_Q01d%,p(01X6X%pa$"T+,%MXL01+,%lB>B1{r"UF62$A(S1ZNF?0$*aO$)Rz0{+,%lB>(6g=r"FE?D*FC;$)*TNM$L(*1O'}7:3%TNFE?D*a>(j0
.Z2$A(S1>/R+04#'LB3SZ2$A(SP1>?TNZ'ED]1>/p01MN363LB!"3?jB$W=Ng*3%d*$62$A(S1>/p01M$t1{4$*363LBF?@_NT3JBT
F0$L(GP8*9(,0F,;$S>?M'[BF62$A(Ss1>?O$/Rn1MNm?7$W?,%8*9(01F?=$[*4.$WCCLBd%FVB$E01aO$)p01363LB
Economic Risks :;>("^4J&!"#$--2:F62$A(Ss1O$/Rn1#$*TUF?0$*aO$)R$WCCLB+,%lB>(6!(01O$/Rn1!_
UF%$}J01TNFE?j)01q>UvEA]1TN#XE]1q1>(71U:2$AB$L0aO$?)01>DB.Z2$A(SP12$)[01F0$7lJ);#$]1hNO3C"TNYR301$jp=1
F62$A(Ss1>?O$/Rn1TF62$A(Ss1O$/Rn18;FS>j(01d*5>01+,%TU$=>t{MNKJG$@tZ2$A(S1>/R+04(Z'ED]1) Z2$A(SP1>?>/p01#'LBF?=$[*4T
+ED@;$D*8E~P1+,%Z'/E6O$/Rn1d* '=$E_MN3V=IP$L01xD;!"g=NP4M!"Z2$A(S1>?TZ2$A(S1>/RTNZ2$A(S1Z'ED*>/Rg?,%K,/=MNd[@6g=Ng(wTTe2PTna>?JtF?)j=F*3b$W?,%lB>(6-n1a$"'":a>?tz0{+,%F,*n1T371T
>/R) 5W0YR301O3A*M13C"gB$"T+,%lB>(6$}6NT(Z2$A(S1>?TNZ'ED*>/R)Z'ED*>/Rd*
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
9/130
.Z2$A(S1T
:;>("^4J:&!"#$%&I&E`-d*O$/Rn1j(01MN3V=O$/R0K;$)015?)C(01+04>E0$;
a3%$E_MN3V=F62$A(Ss1O$/Rn1+04>E01TUF6'ED*TNF62$A(S1$W='tm?7:$WE*I$@?)CB
:()"Me3|`0-"M4?
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
10/130
:()('!"K75&Le"`0
:+04$WB9Tl)7F62$A(Ss1O$/Rn15)CEB:Fundamentel Risks;1"Y!"#$--1
F%'@V]TF@puF?0$*aO$)R$W?,%lB>(6$W~T37F0$7!"!(01O$/Rn1!_8t1>J01T#PX01:$W(,*Nd*T5t$L01:$E01TN$W)j=FD?J/01TN21>"n1d*a>?JtI1O1>C01UI$;1>/uP1TF?,_n1-T>L01TI1O'01U-T>L01Ub1'D01TI$=$}?j01T
.liTI$;1>/u1!0$(0$;T2$)tTNF0$/;d*$W?,%lB>(6$*T F62$A(Ss1TF?G$?)01lDA6g=r"z0Q0$WG$?Sd[@6P!0$(0$;T$W;HJE(01lDA6F*$D01O$/Rn1T
FC63A01T
aOT$V]1
#T301T
lD\01
I$|"
v?@w
MT$DB
d*
3;P
Y;
F62>"
aO'A;
$W(W;$V*363D01Mr"1Q_v*TO$/Rn1eQ_d%FVB$E01>$)p01FW;$V]FA(p]1F?0T301I$@E]1TPg=NP45W0d*H]1FJ>0F?J,Bz0{M$tM4TO$/Rn1eQ_!/iB!(018*9(01I$t>d*
.F?Ej018*9(01Gn$CJ5(6:Particular Risks;X"$!"#$--2
371Tp\0y1'Ga2T3L*F?0$*aO$)R$W~T37+,%lB>(6!(01O$/Rn1!_U21>"n1d*2T3L*23%TNp\01O>u$W~T37!"lJ)(6$@tUo$pn1d*23D0TN
eQ_>$)RMnTU>]1UXVD01UI1O$?)0121'7U'/)01UFS>)01:"M4O\1-R10Mr"z0Q0$WG$?ST$W;HJE(01d[@6$@tF62>"aO'A;$W(W;$V*d[@6g=r"a2T3L*O$/Rn1
.8*9(,0F?Ej01G0$CJO$/Rn1eQ_F?/i(;:'CB8*9(01I$t>:6#7O56?F&l|5&;?R0O>u1374+04$WCCLBZ2H6!(01O$/Rn1$W;3AC6
T37d%P'|)*g?D;$BTNp\01M'[6T5WB$[,(@*!"TN5Wb$pN!"`>/,0x6'DB213GgD*:X,()6$@*F?=3]1F?0'|)]13%1'C0$CJO>}011Q_>~H6OT>}]1`>/,0g;5[L6ZQ01x6'D(01T5WE%P'|)*'_d]TNOT>}]1
.O>}01!"lJ)(]1p\01aO'~+,%FV?(=>?i01F;$b4lJ);F?=3]1F?0'|)]1UF?=3]1F?0'|)]1O$/RNF,*Nd*T
.01..3%$A]1:13p(G4FV?(=>?i01F;$b4lJ);F?=3]1F?0'|)]1UaO$?)01:13p(G4:6#75&G"CCK1;??>?i(01FV?(=KCL(B!(01O$/Rn1M'[)01O$/R9;3AC6a9V"TFEt$GTF2$_FC/E]1M'[Bm?7#PX01T8t1>J01TI$=$}?j0$tFD?J/01&'C0FV?(=KCL(B!(01O$/Rn1$}6N!_TU$W,jGN$@_.%NfJA?"F*O$%aO'~+04#'L(B
lB>(6TUI$;1>/uP1Tli\01#$@%NTI$;.C=P1TI1O'0$tI$%$@V01T21>"n1',G>?iBO3EBTUg,tv@(V@,0TNv@(V]1d*>?Jt^$/C0aO$)RM'[)01O$/RNKCLB+,%
.($@12aO$)R$W(V?(=) F(LJ01O$/Rn1LBM'[)01O$/RN
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
11/130
:Dynamic Risks;g6W5&!"#$--25WB12$%T21>"n1',G>?iBFV?(=KCL(B!(01O$/Rn1Ft>L01O$/R9;3AC6
:3C(01FV?(=v,)01I$?%'=T#$[N!">?i(01TN8[,W()]1q1T{N!">?i(0$tO3EBTUo$pn1d*2T3L*23D0aO$)RO$/Rn1eQ_KCLB+,%lB>(6TU!w'0'E[(01
.F;O$}]1O$/RNLBFt>L01O$/RNPerils :6#75&G"CCK1
a$"'0$t) F?D?J/01>_1'01d*F%'@V*2'wTFV?(=21>"n1a$?7!">/p01>W621'7U'/)01UFS>)0$t) F*$D01>_1'01T(b1'D01U8t1>J01U#PX01UF?D?J/01
:_O>"+g6#75&G"CCK1f>6?eR=+>0U(K6>L01UI1O$?)01
"MHHWez(t>_45&;1"?5&0;
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
12/130
.F?D?J/01K6>L01a>_$O1>[B
IP3D*a2$6!"lJ)(01+04Z2H6Z21O4Y[\;M$)=s1YR3BMNa$%1>*lV6TaO$)p01g,@LB+04F"$us$;M'=$C01F,$LBgDS'6O$/Rn1eQ_a9TTNO1>[B
>/p01KCLByl%Mr"!0$(0$;TUF?=3]1F?0'|)]13%1'C0$CJ>/p01KCLB+,%FJB>(]101$*$W=Na$%1>*v*) $*$\=o'Ap;O1>C01Qp(*?0Tg?"lJ)(]1g,@L(6`'G
.(>/p01O1>[BIP3D*+,%>~HBO$/Rn1F">D*!"P:N$621O4M$t1{43%$)]1>/p01lJJJ)* '=363LB3?j6T
.$W,@LB>?i01+,%5(L(6!(01z,Bd%$_X??@BT$WV$(=Y@L(6 'G!(01:;X75&0
!"!B1Q01l?D01) F?%'u'*I$JJ)*=$ty1'Ga3%$)]1>/p01I$JJ)*MN!"3@D(]1>?!B1Q01l?D01) F621O4PF?ApI$JJ)*TN(>/p01^'u'*\01!B1Q01l?D01) F621O4F?ApI$JJ)*TN(>?i01TNgE%-'E6d*TN>/p01l7$b
a2$6+04Z2HBI$JJ)]1eQ_Yt(>?i01TNgE%-'E6d*TN>/p01l7$b!"3@D(]1.$D*$@W?,tTNe>$)R5V7a2$6TN>/p01O1>[BIP3D*
:6#75&yCKF6?F&l|5&;?D]1\01FD?Jl)7O$/Rn1I$JJ)*5)CEB
:Personal Perils "7%&!"#$-G"CCK1-1Z2H6$@*e3)w!"p\01+,%>~HBCCLB1{4!(01I$JJ)]1F%'@V*!_
C=+04Z2HBI$JJ)]1eQ_YtTUa$"'01UXVD01U>]1:Y*g,R2!"F?0$*aO$)R+04.YR3013C"TN
:Property and Liability Perils;~HBCCLB1{4!(01I$JJ)]1F%'@V*!_
#PX0$tO$/RNI$JJ)*d*g;$*TM'[,0!D?J/01:$E01:Y*F*$D015E0$;K,D(B$W=r"I$JJ)*d*g;$*T!%$@(wP1TN!G$?)01:$E01TNUF|;Tn1TI$=$}?j01T8t1>J01T
.I$;1>/uP1TF0$/J0$tI$JJ)*d*g;$*TZ2$A(SP1:$E01TUI1O'01T-T>L0$t:Particular Perils;X"$6#$G"CCK1-2
23%+,%TN8D*p+,%>~HB$W=r"CCLB1{4!(01I$JJ)]1F%'@V*!_FEW*) o$pn1yPH_TNp\011Q_!"$*Fjb2'w'0z0{To$pn1d*2T3L*
:]5);X"75&G"CCKF&{KHNe0(8D*z,@BUFE?D*:SKT`(6T5&]OY6te6#$G"CCK1-1/2
TNXVD01TNa$"'0$tg,R2+,%TNp\01a$?7+,%>~HB!(01I$JJ)]1!_T.FS>)01T'/)01TK6>L0$tgB$[,(@*+,%>~HBTNU>]1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
13/130
:6/p01a$?L01!"2'w'*'W"K6>L01$WE*F,*n1d*363D01$E_Mr"21'L018;TF*$D01#'LB!ED61Q_Mr"K6>72$72>j03L6$*3E%T`'p01+04Z2H6$_2'wTTa>_$t2$7Ta$"'01a>_$$}6NTU(a>_$,0Z2$*KCLBZN) K6>72$7+04K6>L01a>_$
.FS>)012$7TFS>)01a>_$Ua$"'01$W~T37YJSa>_$01>?~9B'_>/p0$"U2$L01T>/p018;q>j01a$%1>*lV6T
.2>j01+,%$W~T373D;$_>?~9B'W"2$L01$*NU2>j01 +,%:m("W5&f>6?e
ye64>0;1"?5&0-;
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
14/130
:;X"75&'!"K75&-1>DBTN371TvEA*TN371Tp$W0>D(6!(01aO$)p01$W;3AC6T$Wu>DBFV?(=aO$)p,01>L;F0'CE]1v$}J01v?@wTN8D*p\;Fb$RF%$};
.2$L0$W)j=FE?j)01>DBTN.*K6>72$L0:;1"?5&'!"K75&-2
>DBTNo$pn1d*a>?JtF%'@V*$W0>D(6!(01aO$)p01$W;3AC6q>i,0FE?j)01>D(B3STv=$A]1379;O$Vj=1TNK6>7FV?(=O$*3,0F?%$EbFC/E*Mr"F0$L01eQ_!"TU>LJ01!"$W(0'@7d*yXwy$C04gD*:X,()6$@*>LJ01>%!"
aO$)RY@B{$C=s1I$"T>A*$W?04$"$}*a$C,]1F%$}J015?S!"F,@(]1aO$)p01
d[0TF%$}J01-$LbN!S$;pBPT>LJ01!"a$C,]1F%$}J01-$LbNpBPF*$%UFE?j)01:F6>LJ01F0$G>01`1>Nv?@w5_TFE?j)01{$C=4d*2$j(G1d*YtpB.$D?@w5W?,%aO$)p01v6'B5(6m?7(dL\01a>wN) M'0'E01UF%$}J01
:"MOKOKeyK,6k"K75&{$)p015?)C(;3AC6{KHNe(*^5&&nQ_U0F0$~TNF?=$~FJB>*!"Iy$w:N2$L,0+0Tn1a>$J]1
:]5)6k"K75&:Direct Loss '6"CF&'!"K75&-1
F0$7!j"UeO$~d*3L,0TN2$L,0F?@(7TF?D?J>J(DB!(01aO$)p01!_I$"T>A*q$j=45(63ST($?,tTN$?Xw)Yb0,Bg?,%lB>(6g=r"K6>72$7T37
y$js1e$?*lJ);z0{Ty$js1F?,@%y$E~Ng)j=Ybn1!S$J0eO$\(=1d*3L,013?D;I$[,(@]1xD;y$C04lJ);TNK6>L01$W?04YA650!(01dt$*n1!"$_O$\(=1T#$*FC;$)01>$)p01YtUK6>L01y$E~NFS>)01>$)RTNK6>L01d*$_{$C=4`3W;
.a>$J]1>$)p,0:Indirect Loss '6"CF&6L,0F?@(7TF?D?JFV?(=>J(DBP!(01aO$)p01!_d%S'(01>$)R$}6NT5WB$[,(@*+04K6>L01#$C(=1lJ);d6>R1e$VBF?=3]1
lC%F?E*a>("+04g,bn\01a2$%4TNc.bs1F?,@%$(LBm?7K6>L01lC%Y@D01F*.01F?"$us1>?w9(01TNY?i\(016O$A*+04F"$us$;YR301$W0.R3Cj62$L01
.y.@D01+,%"$L,0TNI$*1X(0s$;y$"'01d[@6+(7$\E01F0T1X]:"7%&'"/p012'wT
:;(j01#.R>/p01',Gd%I$=$?J01v@w5(6MN3D;d[0T>$p]1xD;+,%Z'/EBm?7d*y1'GYJC()]1!"a>_$01',);HJE(01!"$W*13p(G4T$W,?,LBTF?u$]1:13p(G4KJG$*+04`$}6.$W~T37F0$7!"$W(@?Sm?7d*TN$_O1>[BIP3D*
O1Q=s1Y$GTUF?$C,(01K6>L01I$$OUK%1'A01I$D=$*Y*vE]1TF6$S'01Y$GT:13p(G4+,%lB>(6m?7UF?='6Xj?,(01>1T301UF6'C01F6363L01-1';n1UK6>L,0>[J]1
.$W~T37F0$7!"$W(@?Sx?jpBT21'L01O1>[BIP3D*x?jpBY$G'01eQ_
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
15/130
:;"n1lEVB!"FG$?)01eQ_Y@(BT
IP$V]1eQ_gE@}(B$]1>=(!*'C01&'()]1TNZ2>j01&'()]1+,%y1'GIP$V]1$j(7P1:$WE*Ta363%z0{+,%F,*n1T($WD*Y*$D(01d[@6!(01T)>$p]1xD;d*
$Ew$?(71TaO$?)01F?@_Nv*) aO$?Gy1>:3%U$_3C"d*$"'R$_O$@(G1MT2#1'*n$;$*v*&>Rn1Y$G'01:13p(G4Ta>$/01-'tO:3%U2$L0$Wu>DBd*$"'R($W0T>S'EJ01fE*:3%Ua>$/,02$7T37d*$"'R#'NSTTFC\*d*gE@}(B
.01...Ywn$;v?J01:3%U213)01:3%F?\Ry.@D,0:;*$W*3CBTF6>\J01a$?L01Mn1>=F?0$%F%$EbU$WE*Ta363%z0{+,%F,*n1TUO$/Rn1eQ_v*Y*$D(01+,%F0T301TI$@E]1TP'0:3CBd*g?04,bT$*+04YA(0=$t$*v$}J01TN-$t>01YCE0F?=3]1I1>$/01
F613J01!"$WD*Y*$D(01d*21>"n1jLBd*5>01+,%) $W*13p(G4+,%21>"n1:13S4d*S'01v*$W;M$*n1FwO2^$jBO1T$W(%$Eb:3C(01>=(aO'/p01FwO2^$jBOP
$@*&>RNF?7$=d*$W?,%FJB>(]1O$/Rn1aO124!"I$@E]1T21>"n1c$VE0TUF?7$=.F6>\J01F?_$">0F63L01F%$EA01g?04,b'B$*Y}"Nd*$W,Dw
$W=Nd*5>01+,%TUFS$/013?0'B!"F6T'E01I$/L]1:13p(G4F?@_N$}6NTI$?$?(7P1{$pB1v*$WD*Y*$D(01d*>j*Pg=NP4F?0$%aO'/RFwO2+,%Z'/EB
.$_O$/RNx?jp(0F*.01
[0%&A^T5&]OY;O9-
1- U>/p01lJ)*U3t9(01:3%U>/p01:F,*Ny$/%4v*!,6$* >%aO$)p012$L01.
U$@WB$JJ)* $@Wj6>DB :m?7 d* 2$L01T >/p01 8; MO$S -2.$@WVB$=
3-Y?Aj(0$;$_1374c>v*>/p01I$jb5_N>t{1.4- g*3%d*$WCCLBm?7d*21'L,0Fj,(p]1^1'=n1>t{1.5- $_>?~9Bm?7d*21'L,0Fj,(p]1^1'=n1>t{1.6- F6'ED]1O$/Rn1TF62$A(Ss1O$/Rn18;MO$S.
>t{v*$WB9\=TN$W(D?Jl)7O$/R0Fj,(p]1^1'=n1>t{1-7. '=Y[0F,*N
Y[0 F,*N >t{ v* $WB9T l)7 O$/R0 Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -8
. '=>D]1 \01 FD?J l)7 O$/R0 Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -9. '=Y[0F,*N>t{v*>/p,0
I$JJ)* FD?J l)7 O$/R0 Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -10. '=Y[0F,*N>t{v*>/p01
$WB9\= l)7 O$/Rn1 I$JJ)] Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -11. '=Y[0F,*N>t{v*
FD?J l)7 O$/Rn1 I$JJ)] Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -12. '=Y[0F,*N>t{v*>/p01lJ)]>D]1\01
v*$WB9Tl)7O$/Rn1I$JJ)]Fj,(p]1^1'=n1>t{1-13
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
16/130
. '=Y[0F,*N>t{
>t{ v* $WB9T l)7 >$)p,0 Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -14. '=Y[0F,*N
v* $W"1>N23DB l)7 >$)p,0 Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 >t{1 -15. '=Y[0F,*N>t{
>t{v* $W,),)Bl)7>$)p,0Fj,(p]1^1'=n1 >t{1-16. '=Y[0F,*N
.21>"n1a$?7!">/p012'wT>~N'_$*-17
xD; !" aO'/p01 FwO2 ^$jBO1 d* 5>01 +,%) -18eQ_!"z6NOfuT($WD*Y*$D(,0aOT>u$E_MNP4IP$V]1.Y?,D(01v*aO$JD01
_`"\5&A^T5&
6#75&"/p01 h$?S d*=$t 1{4 gJEVB TN $W; c'@)]1 2T3L01 !" g(@?S =$t 1{4 >/p01 v* Y*$D(0$; K,D(6)?0 >/p01h$?SF?,@% Mr" &>RN F?7$= d*TU$W0'JSd[@6 !(01 2T3L01O$R g(@?S
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
17/130
.>/p01F@?S363LB!"a>~H]1Y*1'D0123D(01>=>?)?01>*n$;FwO2 :Y* >/p01 h$?S #$V* !" xDJ01 $W*3p()6 !(01 I$L,/A]1 23D(0 1>=TvS'B UF,@(L* aO$)R+ASNUFDS'(]1 aO$)p01UaO$)p01#$@(74 U3t9(01:3%UaO'/p01
:!0$(01'LE01+,%I$L,/A]1+ED*f?u'B5(6g=r"UaO$)p01
Degree of Risk :'!E#75&;D!(
d*T>R+04p d* 371'01S']1 TNO1>C,0FJ)E0$; aO'/p01FwO2 ,(pBaO'/p01 FwO2 MN !ED6 1Q_ Mr" $E?D* 1O1>S p Qp(6 $@E?L" U&>RN +04 a>_$FwO2 MN !ED6 1Q_ Mr" O1>C01 {$pB1 :3% p O>S 1{4 f?Lb [D01T F}jpE*
F0$L01 363LB !" $?G$GN 1OT2 lD,B aO'/p01 FwO2 MN !ED6 1Q_T .FDjB>* aO'/p01y1'GO1>C011Q_FD?J+,%>~H6$@*O1>C01{$pB13E%p\01$W?,%M'[6!(01F6'ED]1>_1'01>?~9(0$6'ED*$G$?C*Y@BaO'/p01FwO2MN!ED61Q_TUe{$pB1:3%TNe{$pB$;P h$?C]1 1Q_ MN a$%1>* lV6T UgB1O1>S+,% p\0$; ?LB !(01 F*$D01 TN F?D?J/01
.(FJ)E01TN23D0$t) !@[01TNZ2$]1&'()]1+04+S>6
U$W0$@_4 d[@6 P g=N P4 $?@t $G$?C* )?0 aO'/p01 FwO2 MN d* 5>01 +,%TFwO2d*>?[;YSNF?;>D01>A*F6O'W@w!"O$/*n1aO'/RFwO2MN`T>D]1d*.@">~9(6 1O1>S {$pB1 36>6 ZQ01 p\01 MN z0{ +,% lB>(6T $?;'?~N !" O$/*n1 aO'/R+,%>~HB$_OT3;!_T8(0T301!"aO'/p01I$wO2eO$J(%1!"QR96 'GO$/*n1F?@[;
.eQp(6 'GZQ01O1>C01
+,%T UaO'/p01 FwO30 !@t h$?C* +04 #'b'01 -$([01 d* 363D01 #T$7 3C0T2T37T$?,%2T37363LB +04Yb'(01 5Bg=NP4h$?C]11Q_ +04Yb'(01 :3%d* 5>01T37 d* 13t9(* 2>j01 M$t 1{r" UO$/Rn1 l?B>B !" *3p(G1 aO'/p01 FwO30 $?=2a>_$ z0{ #$*T U >jb ZT$)B (aO'/p01 FwO2) 3t9(01 :3% FwO2 Mr" FE?D* a>_$ZN$W~T37d*3t9B$E_Mn>jbZT$)BaO'/p01FwO2Mr"$?;'?~N!"O$/*n1'CGFE?D*>_$T37:3%d*13t9(*2>j01M$t1{4$}6NTU3t9(01:3%YL*YL63t9(01MN'CG a>_$ z0{ #$*T $}6N 1>jb ZT$)B (aO'/p01 FwO2) 3t9(01 :3% FwO2 Mr"3t9B$E_Mn1>jbZT$)BaO'/p01FwO2Mr">/]1$W?"C)6P FC/E*!"O$/*n1
.3t9(01:3%YL*3t9(01YL6!0$(0$;T$W~T37:3%d*
T37d*13t9(*2>j01M'[6m?7>/R3w'6Pg=r"8(C;$)018(0$L,0FJ)E0$;T8(C;$)01 8(0$L01 8; 3w'6 >/p01 Mr" !0$(0$;T $W~T37 :3% d* 13t9(* TN a>_$01d% YCBT >jA01 d% 36XB) f?LA01 371'01T >jA01 8; aO'/p01 FwO2 F@?S cT1>(BT&T$)(B$*3E%%100 !_T$W0F@?S+ASN+04aO'/p01FwO2YABT(f?LA01371'01+ED@;TUa>_$01T37:3%d*3t9(01:3%FwO2v*a>_$01T37d*3t9(01:3%FwO2a>_$01KCLBFb>"2>j01&30&T$)(B$*3E%$_$ASN+04YABaO'/p01FwO2Mr">R
.$WCCLB:3%Fb>"v*
EWN5& ]OY "MT>6?e R=+> '!E#75& ;D!( viU qC9 "1 ]OY Z"Nc0n741hBe_45&;[(01d%aO$J%2$L01T37#$@(74TNaO$)p01T37#$@(74O1>[(01 '_ TN aO$)p,0 Fu>D* =$t !(01 IP$L01 23% +,% $*')C* aO$)p01 IP$7Mr"!0$(0$;T2$L,0Fu>D*=$t!(01I137'0123%+04$;')E*21'L0123D0!J)E01FDS'(]1 21'L01 >63CB !" 3?j6 ($?@t) $62$* $G$?C* >J(D6 2$L01 T37 #$@(74
.>/p01h$?S>b$E%37Ng=N+04F"$us$;
Chance of loss :'!"K75&;X6U'!"K75&["+4,)]OYqO#>0&nQ
:2YE`]5)"Mc"K,;H>6}a65&0-_c"KW5&["+4,:&-1
>RSTd*$W(@?S>?i(BPF(;$~F?u$6OGn$C"Tl)L6ZQ01#$@(7s1'_TF?=3D*2'C=FD/Sy$C043E%aO'b+,%#'AL01#$@(74z0{#$*TU>Rpd*TNP#$@(74M{4'W"lD,01q1OTNF%'@V*d*5 S>01Y@LBFSOT+,%#'AL01#$@(74TN
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
18/130
.Probability M$[]1TNM$*X01>?i(;>?i(6
Imperical Probabiltiy :_O?T5&0-_O+?5&0-_C>6@45&["+4,:&-2
Fb$R-O$VBTI$=$?;+,%3@(DBF?u$6OGn$C"Tl)L6ZQ01#$@(7s1'_>?i(B!J6>V(01#$@(7s1F@?SMr"z0Q0>RSTd*>?i(B$WE[0TYDj0$;~37>_1'0TNK6>L01IP$@(74TNUa$"'01Ta$?L01IP$@(74z0{#$*>RM$[*d*T>RSTd*
.I1O$?)01:2$AB
J0a_1'0$;o$p01#$@(7s$;HJE(01!"$W*13p(G4
Actual or realized Probability :_O?T5&_C>6@45&["+4,:&-2
!,Dj01 #$@(7s1 FC;$/* &3* 363L(0 a3]1F6$W= !" l)L6 ZQ01 #$@(7s1 '_TUF?,Dj01 j)B $* l)7 vS'(]1 #$@(7s1 Y63DB 5(6 m?L; vS'(]1 #$@(70>"1'B d* 3;." FDS'(]1IP$@(7s1 d* F?,Dj01 IP$@(7s1->(CB ![0 g=N F7.*lV6T(&*Y%& vE`"Hc P6?> "1 EQ0>/p,0 Fu>D]1 F,~$@(]1 I137'01 d* 13w >?Jt 23%]4>):S`-]OYvE`"H5&&nQN>a/p01FwO28;F6'SFS.%3w'B>/p01aO124y1>JRO3S1{r"e1>36>6p$E_MNTv?J,0$uT>D*$DEA*$E_MNFwO2Mr" (K6>73L6d0g=NZN)>jbZT$)65puK6>L0vEA]1>DB#$@(74MNMNy1>Jp01g0O3S1{4$}6NTUvEA]1y1>+,%YJC6!0$(0$;T>jbZT$)Bg630aO'/p01ZT$)B g630 aO'/p01 FwO2 Mr" %100 ZT$)6 5pu K6>L0 vEA]1 >DB #$@(74
.vEA]1y1>d%vE(@6 'Gg=nz0{T$}6N>jb
$E_ %20 TN %15 d[(0T >jA01 d% 36XB F@?C; #$@(7s1 y1>Jp01 O3S 1{4 $*N#$@(74 21 $@,tT (8(C;$)01 8(0$L01 !" 1>jb ZT$)B P) aO'/p01 FwO2 F@?S >WB$*3E%z0{T%100 !_T$_$ASN+04YAB+(7aO'/p01FwO2I21$@,t2$L01KCLBQp(* v?/()6P m?7 %50 ZN gCCLB :3%#$@(74 v*2$L01KCLB#$@(74 &T$)(6%50 d% 2$L01 KCLB #$@(74 211{4T KCL(6 'G 80$@(7s1d* ZN 363LB O1>C012$L01 KCLB #$@(74 YA6 $*3E% >jA01 +04 YAB +(7 xjpEB aO'/p01FwO2 Mr"
.$_$=>t{!(01:$(013t9(01F0$L;`>DB$*!_T%100 +04
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
19/130
["+4,)2c;J?5&osE>(1) {J!A='!E#75&;D!(0m("W5&m0*,
;D!('!E#75&100%
;C5"K5&G&!&6H5&I"#J ;CDEF&G&!&6H5&I"#J
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
{4,:&[&
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
:!_I$S.D01d*F%'@V*$E0f}(6K;$)01Y[\01d*T
>jbaO$)p01#$@(74M'[6$*3E%>jbZT$)BaO'/p01FwO2-1+,% p\01 :3C6 $E_T (2$L01 T37 F0$L(G1 F0$7)M'[B$*3E%>jbZT$)BaO'/p01FwO2$}6NTO1>C01{$pB1Mn (2$L01 T37 d* 3t9(01 F0$7) %100#$@(7s1 F@?S
.O1>C01{$pB1+,%:3C6d0p\01
F,@(*$@WE?;FS.D01M'[BT#$@(7s1a2$6X;36XBaO'/p01FwO2-2QR96$*3E%#$@(7s1F@?SDuM'[BaO'/p01FwO2MN!"1{4g=N+ED@;%50 +(7>jbd*y13(;1F@?SZN#$@(7s1%30 ZT$)B aO'/p01FwO2 Mr"%5 ZT$)6 #$@(7s1 M$tZT$)BaO'/p01FwO2Mr"%45 ZT$)6#$@(7s1M$t1{4TaO'/p01 FwO2 Mr" %50 ZT$)6 #$@(7s1 M$t 1{4T %952$L01 T37 #$@(74 M$t 1{4 g=n z0{T %100 ZT$)B
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
20/130
v* &T$)(B 2$L01 T37 Fb>" MN !ED6 1Q_ Mr" %50+ASN+043t9(01:3%F0$7YAB!0$(0$;Tg~T37:3%Fb>"F0$7!W"$*'@%TU%100 aO'/p01FwO2M'[Bg?,%T$W0F@?S8; Yb$" 37 vuT !" 3?jB $WE[0T$_2'wT lDA6 F6O'bU>jb 8; cT1>(6 #$@(7s1 M$t 1{4) FJw']1 I1O1>C01 ^$/ScT1>(6#$@(7s1M$t1{4) FJ0$)01I1O1>C01^$/S8;T(%50FwO2T#$@(7s18;FS.D01Mr"!0$(0$;T(%100 U%50 8;%50 +(7 >jb d* 5?C01 #$@(7s1 QR96 $*3E% aO'/p01
:!,6$@tfJAB
2 !
["+4,:& =
'!E#75&
;D!(aO'/p01 FwO2 Mr" %50 d% #$@(7s1 F@?S I21 1{4 $*N -3{$pB1'L=$|?\"$|?gV(6 'GO1>C01Qp(*Mn) xjpEB+04YAB+(7($\E011Q_!"Y*$D(01:3D;!J,)01O1>C018; FS.D01 M'[BT %100 +04 #$@(7s1 YA6 $*3E% >jA01%50 d% #$@(7s1 36X6 $*3E% aO'/p01 FwO2T #$@(7s1
:!,6$@t%100 +04YA6+(7T
2 !["+4,:&{+41= '!E#75&;D!(2 !(["+4,:& 1) = '!E#75&;D!(
%60 = 2 "%30 = aO'/p01FwO2Mr" %70#$@(7s1M$t1{r"
%30 = 2 "%15 = aO'/p01FwO2Mr" %85#$@(7s1M$t1{4T
%>jb= 2 "%>jb= aO'/p01FwO2Mr"%100#$@(7s1M$t1{4T
!"fJA=$E=r"aO'/p01FwO2xjpEB!0$(0$;T %50 d%#$@(7s136X6$*3E%Ta2$6X0 l7$A]1 aO'/p01 FwO2 $jp=1 MN a$%1>* lV6T UFJ0$)01 I1O1>C01 ^$/S+04Z2H6`'G#$@(7s1a2$6M4Y;O1>C01{$pB1+,%p\01:13S4!ED6P#$@(7s1!(01 IP$V]1v* Y*$D(01 :3D; O1>C01Qp(6 'G !0$(0$;T Y@(L* >? >/p01M'[6 MNKCLB #$@(74 21 $@,t g=n z0{T UaO'/p01 FwO2 xjpE(" >/p01 1Q_ +,% Z'/EBd* 3t9(01 F,7>* d* -1>(SP1 !ED6 1Q_T $WCCLB :3% #$@(74 xjp=1 $@,t aO$)p01
.a>]$;>/R3w'6."!0$(0$;T$W~T37:m(&EW5&(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&
:2$AB TN K6>7 2$7 d[?0T $* 2$7 T3L0 vS'(]1 aO$)p01 #$@(74 >63C(0F?u$*a>("#.R2$L01d%I$=$?;+,%3@(D6z0{Mr"U01...a$"TTNFS>GTNI1O$?GF,~$@(]1 I137'01 d* !"$t 23% >"1'B >\; z0{T a>Jp01 a>(" +@)B (>tN TN FEG)361X(B:N:$(=P1FjbQR9BY_T!u$]1!"a>_$01',Ga$%1>*v*)>/p,0Fu>D]1aO$)p01#$@(74 >63CB3E% O$J(%P1!" z0{ QRNT S$E(B TN &>Rn FEG d* $WBP3D*8(EGfJABZNa>Jp01a>("a2$6d[@6g=r"!"$t>?I137'0123%M$t1{4TU(vS'(]1YSNI1>("+04a>Jp01a>("5?)CBd[@6$@ta371TFEGd*P3;I1'EG@RTNF~.~TN
.I$=$?J01C=F,[\*+,%l,i(=z0Q;TFEGd*
I$t>\01 :Y* &>RN I$Ww I$=$?; +,% 2$@(%P1d[@6 g=N KJG $* +04 `$}6I$WV01xD;U8*9(01I$t>Y*`T>01j=$W0T#$V]1j=!"Y@DB!(01&>Rn1I137'0123%v6'BTI$=$?J01v?@VB3D;TUK6>L0121'L0FJ)E0$;"$/]$tFAAp(]1YAL= $E=r" $WBP$@(74T2$L0$;$W(;$b4I1>* 23%l)7 >/p,0Fu>D* =$t!(0121'L01 23D0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(,0 8(0$7 3w'BT U21'L01 23D0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 +,%
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
21/130
:$@_
:(R1.5&'*,00-);NK5&[$6\g%&]OY*,&0m(", m0*,:]50%&;5"W5&
ZN) FE)01#.R>tn1+,%a371Ta>*2$L,0>D(B!(01I137'01xD;$E_F?w$(=s1 $WB$?7 #.R TN (FE)01 #.R C" 371T 2$7 T37 TN 2$L01 T37 :3%eQ_ !"T a$"',0p\01 >DB $}6NT FS>)01 TN >)[,0 F6>~N FjLB >DB z0{ #$*Tg0 3L6 MN TN 2$L01 3L6 PN $*4 >/p,0 >D]1 p\01 TN \01 Mr" F0$L01'/GTNK6>72$L0q3Ej01TNvEA]1>DBz0{#$*TFE)01#.Ra371Ta>*2$L013L6 P 3S g=N 3V= FC;$)01 IP$L01 !j" :2$AB $}6NT 2$L0 aO$?)01 >DB TNFu>D*a37T5000 $E630M$t1{r"a371Ta>*2$L013L6MNTNFE)01#.R2$L01+,% $E,A7 2$L,0 $Wu>DB I1>* 23% l)7 I137'01 eQ_ FG1O3;T FEG a3] >/p,0
:!0$(01!0$@(7s1v6'(01
m(&EW5&(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&osE>(1) {J![0*D
m(&EW5&(*Y G&*,E5&(*Y ["+4,:&>jb 4800 0.96
1 200 0.04
IE+@F& 5000 1.00
>D(B 50) 2$7 >jA0u>DB !(01 I137'0123% MN $E0 f}(6 K;$)01#T3V01 d*T#$@(74Mr"!0$(0$;T2$L,0Fu>D*=$ta37T5000 8;d*a37T4800'_(2$L,0
0.96 = = ZT$)62$L01T37:3%8; d* a37T 200'_ FE)01 #.R 371T2$L0u>DB !(01 I137'01 23%Mr" $}6NT
:ZT$)6a37TZn2$L01T37#$@(74Mr"!0$(0$;T5000
0-);NK5&[$AJ%&]OYm(",m0*,0-m("W5&m0*,h*Y:;DBTNK6>72$L0q3Ej01TNvEA]1>DBz0{#$*TFE)01#.RYSn1+,%371TFE)01 #.R 2$L01 3L6 P 3S g=N 3V= FC;$)01 IP$L01 !j" :2$AB 2$L0 aO$?)0123% l)7 I137'01 eQ_ FG1O3;T FEG a3] >/p,0 Fu>D* a37T 5000 $E630 M$t 1{r"
:!0$(01!0$@(7s1v6'(01+,%$E,A72$L,0$Wu>DBI1>*
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
22/130
m(&EW5&(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&osE>(2) {J![0*D
m(&EW5&(*Y G&*,E5&(*Y ["+4,:&
>jb 3200 0.64
1 1200 0.34
2 400 0.08
3 150 0.03
4 50 0.01
IE+@F& 5000 1
3200'_ 2$7 Zn >D(B 50 !(01 I137'01 23% MN $E0 f}(6 K;$)01 #T3V01 d*TZn2$7ZNT37:3%#$@(74Mr"!0$(0$;T>/p,0Fu>D*a37T5000 8;d*a37T
8~37TN371T2$7 T37#$@(74-$)7d[@6$}6NTU :'_a37T:!,6$@tFD;ONTN
= 371T2$7T37#$@(74
= 8~2$7T37#$@(74
= 21'73 T37#$@(74
= 21'74 T37#$@(74
3 TN YSn1 +,% 8~2$7 TN YSn1 +,% 37T 2$7 T37 #$@(74 -$)7 d[@6 $}6NT:!,6$@tYSn1+,%21'74TNYSn1+,%21'7
4TN3TN8~2$7TN371T2$7T37#$@(74=YSn1+,%371T2$7T37#$@(74
0.36 = = =
4TN3TN8~2$7T37#$@(74=YSn1+,%8~2$7T37#$@(74
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
23/130
=
4TN21'73 T37#$@(74=YSn1+,%21'73 T37#$@(74
=
=C"21'74 T37#$@(74=YSn1+,%21'74 T37#$@(74
21'73TN >tn1 +,%8~2$7TN>tn1+,%2$7 KCLBIP$@(74 -$)7d[@6 $@t:!,6$@t>tn1+,%
2$7ZNT37:3%TN371T2$7T37#$@(74=>tn1+,%2$7T37#$@(74
=
ZN T37 :3% TN 2$7 TN 8~2$7 T37 #$@(74 =YSn1 +,% 8~2$7 T37 #$@(742$7
=
TN 2$7 TN 8~2$7 TN 21'73 T37 #$@(74 =>tn1 +,% 21'73 T37 #$@(742$7ZNT37:3%
=
:>tn1+,%21'74 T37#$@(74
2$7ZNT37:3%TN2$7TN8~2$7TN21'73TN21'74 T37#$@(74=
=
:;j,1
>$)p01 5?C0 TN 21'L01 23D0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(0$; Fb$p01 I$=$?J01 +,% #'AL01 5(6:8(C6>#.Rd*
:;6#5&
23%>"1'B>\;z0{T(a>Jp01a>(") F?u$]1a>(j01#.Ra>_$01FG1O2#.Rd*Yt $W0u>DB!(01 21'L0123%l)7y1'G$W,?V)B5~F,~$@(]1 I137'01d* !"$teQ_ :13p(Gr; !0$@(7s1 v6'(01T UaO$)p01 F@?S l)7 TN a>Jp01 a>(" #.R a37T
.F?p6O$(01I$=$?J01+,%3@(D6FC6>/01
:;>6jN5&;BE45&:;_$01d%F7$(]1I$=$?J01Mn$*4T$W(6$jt:3D0$*4T$W?"FC01:3D0Pg=Nd*5>01+,%21'74 +ASn1e3723D011Q_T(2 5SO#T3V01!"$@t) 21'L,0
.:2$C01:$D01!"a37TZn21'76TN5 T37d*vE@6$*3w'6
!/D6 13W@* +ELE* Y@6 ZQ01T lG$E]1 Z>E01 v6'(01:13p(G4Y}j6 z0Q0a$%1>* v* F6$W= P $* +04 >jb d* 21'L01 d* 23% T3L0 Fj,(p]1 IP$@(70 $@?S
I$D6'(01$Ap;:$]s1#.Rd*a>_$01I$=$?J0lG$E]1Z>E01v6'(01:13p(G41{4T Ud63L01 Z{ v6'B :3p()= $E=r" gE6$JB ZT$)6 v6'(01G'(* M$t 1{r"UF6>E01d% 36X6 G'(]1 M$t 1{4T UM'G1'; v6'B:3p()=$E=r" G'(]1 d% 36X6 d6$J(01 M$td*3t9(,0K?"'(01a2'wO$J(R1y1>w4v*l0$)01d63L01Z{v6'B:3p()=$E=r"d6$J(01v6'(0$;Fb$p01$WB>?=v* Z>E01v6'(0$;Fb$p01IP$@(7s1 TN I1O1>[(01FC;$/*
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
24/130
.()!,Dj01
Y* $W*13p(G4 d[@6 F6>= I$D6'B a3% $E_ Mr" aO$)p01 F@?C0 FJ)E0$;Tv* l0$)01 !Gn1 v6'(01 U$*$w v6'B U'(6O$; v6'B U!D?J/01 !@(6O$',01 v6'(01
.!,Dj01v6'(,0Z>E01v6'(01FC;$/*d*3t9(,0K?"'(01a2'wO$J(R1y1>w4
Expected losl Severity:'!"K75&'3}00-;?JE4F&'!"K75&{@,
aO$)p01MNm?7TU$W~T37F0$7!"aO$)p01F@?SFDS'(]1aO$)p015VL;3AC6MN $@[" UaO'/p01 FwO30 :$% h$?C* 363LB !" 1>?t 3?jB $W=r" !@[01 h$?C,0 F,;$S
$}6N >J(D6 aO$)p01 5V7 Mr" aO'/p01 FwO30 h$?C* >J(D6 aO$)p01 T37 #$@(745V7 MN z0{ U aO'/p01 FwO2 h$?S !" aO$)p01 #$@(74 q'j6 g=4 Y; U$W0 h$?C*g(?@_N>WBP2$L01T37#$@(74M4Y;2$L01KCLBFj,[B!/D6FDS'(]1aO$)p01
.$W~T37F0$7!"FDS'(]1aO$)p015VL;g=1>(S1#.Rd*P4
>D* vEA]1 1Q_ MNT $* vEA* y1> 36>6 $Ap MN >j= z0{ f?u'(0Td*5[L01d[@6YW"%1'_2$L01T37#$@(74MNy1>Jp01g0O3S1{r"K6>L01>/p0UF}jpE* >/p01 F@?S Mr" !0$(0$;T F}jpE* $W=9; aO'/p01 FwO2 +,% #$@(7s1 #.RvEA]1 F@?S MNT g?Ew 200000 2$L01 KCLB F0$7 !" aO$)p01 F@?S =$t 1{4T>?i(6 'G3?t9(0$;UF}jpE*aO'/p01FwO2M9;'_$@tO1>C01Y6YW"g?Ew250000KCLB +,%FJB>(]1aO$)p01F@?S MN P41>?ib M$t M4T #$@(7s1 Mn O1>C01Qp(* ZNO
.(vEA]1F@?Sd*%80Y@B) 13wa>?JtF@?S!_2$L01
$=QRN1{r"%45 2$L01T37#$@(74M$t1{4$*F0$7!"g=r"x?CE01+,%TMN$E@,%1{4$*NFDjB>* $W(@?S M'[B 'G3?t9(0$J"aO'/p01FwO30h$?C@t#$@(7s1$*$@B >?i(6 'G O1>C01 Mr" g?Ew 1000 !_ 2$L01 T37 F0$7 !" aO$)p01 F@?SaO$)p01 F@?S Mr" FDjB>* g(@?S =$t M4T #$@(7s1 Mn z0{ aO'/p01 FwO2 xjpEBT
.(vEA]1F@?S d*0.004 ZN%0.4Y@B) F}jpE*
aO'/p01 FwO2 363LB !" Fb$R F?@_N $W0 aO$)p01 F@?S MN z0{ d* ,p=.2$L01T37#$@(74v*lEw+04$JEw(3D;$@?"&>EG$@t>/p01h$?S!0$(0$;T)
,J* 8;T 13w >?ib ,J* 8; $W(@?S cT1>(B FDS'(]1 aO$)p01 MN a$%1>* lV6To$p01 K;$)01 #$@,0 FJ)E0$J" UY*$[0$; YR301 TN \01 F@?S +04 YA6 3S 13w >?Jt
>jbaO$)p01M'[BT2$L013L6P3Sg=r"g?Ew250000 g(@?S,JBZQ01TvEA]$;100 d*N3JB3SFj,(p*5?C;O3(BaO$)p01F@?SMr"F0$L01eQ_!"T2$L013L63ST200000 +04YAB3STNg?Ew100000 M'[B3STN5000 5~2000 5~1000 5~200 5~$E_M'[Bm?7Y*$[0$;$W(@?S^$?u2$L01+,%lB>(6Py$?n1xD;MNa$%1>*v*+EJ]1I$G$GN>~9(BPIP$L01xD;!") !=$J]1TOn1Y*q1>(7.0F,;$S>?y$?N:8;FS>j(01lV6$E_T(I$=$_301Tz?;$J\01T-1';n1d%aO$J%>$)p01M'[BT1'L01TN
.>/p,0Fu>D]1F@?C01T\01F@?S
g?Ew250000 !_(Y*$[0$;vEA]1F@?S) \01F@?SMN3V=K;$)01#$]1!j"+CJ(?Gm?7 Y*$[0$;vEA]1F@?S ^$?u5(6d0 g=r"Y*$tK6>7T37 F0$7!"d[0TF@?S2$DJ(G13D;\01F@?S)>/p,0Fu>D]1F@?C01MN!ED61Q_T!=$J]1TOn1d@~,J@;$_>63CB5B#$]11Q_!"!_T\01F@?Sd%YCB3S(q1>(7.0F,;$C01>?y$?n1
.g?Ew200000z0{ #$*T \01 F@?S v* a>?t IP$7 !" &T$)(6 >/p,0 >D]1 ,J]1 d[0TTN2$L;y1'Gp\01a$"TTNF?,taO$)R+04Z2H6O$Vj=1TN2$L0aO$?G>DBTN \01 F@?S ZT$)6 >/p,0 >D]1 ,J]1 MN IP$L01 eQ_ !" 3V= m?7 F?D?J a$"T
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
25/130
.Ybn1
+042$L0$Wu>DB+,%lB>(6!(01y$?n1xD;$E_MNKJG$*+04`$}6z0{#$*T($@12F?,t>$)R!_Y;F?Xw>$)R$E_M'[BPZN)Y*$[0$;$W(@?S3C"
.gB$"T+04Z2H62$L0p\01>DBTN>)[,0F6>~NFjLB>DB
v6'B ZN) >$)p01 5VL0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 FG1O2 3E% g=r" z0{ +,% y$E;TYtKCLBIP$@(74!0$(0$;T$_O1>[BIP3D*T$W(@?Sl)7FC;$)01a>(j01#.R>$)p01
.8B23L*8(0$7:$*N$E)j=N3V=$E=r"(aO$)R
:'!"K75&;+jbaO$)p01F@?SM'[B$E_T2$L013L6P$*4g=N3V=F0$L01eQ_!"z0{ #$*T Y*$[0$; y!\01 F@?S ZT$)B ZN F?,t aO$)p01 M'[B $E_T 2$L01 3L6 MNFD/Sd*F%'EA]1Ft>\01TNYL]1FWw1T>DBTNFS>)01TN>)[,0F6>~NFjLB>DBaO$)p01MN3V=FC;$)01IP$L01v?@w!j"Up\01a$"TTN>)[,0$wX01d*a371T
.aO$)p01F@?C0$?0$@(74$D6'B$E_M'[6P!0$(0$;Ta371TF@?C;3LB
YtF@?STFS>)01>/p0Fu>D*F,~$@(*a37T5000$E_MN>j=z0{f?u'(0TIP$7v?@wMN3V=$E_FE)01#.RFS>G2$7200 373Sg=NTg?Ew10000 $WE*j=5W0p5000 $E630M$t1{4$}6NTg?Ew10000 $WE*YtF@?SM'[(GaO$)p01Yt a>Gn g?Ew 10000 !/DB a371T Ft> !" M',@D6T 40 d)01 :$@B d[?0T >@D01UF6T$)(*M'[(Ga23)]10$J]1Mr" p200 FE)01#.R5WE*!"'B3Sg=NT!"'(*a37T 200 $_23%T 2$L,0 u>DB !(01 I137'01 TN o$p0 FJ)E0$; g=N 3V= $E_
:!,6$@tF@?C01l)7$W0!0$@(7s1v6'(01M'[6`'G
'!"K75&;+/p,0Fu>D*F@?S+ASNTN)Y*$[0$;y!\01d*5>0$;T>/p,0Fu>D]1y$?n15?SY~$@BY!"+(7g=N3V=m?701...FS>)01TN#$*);NTU&>Rna37Td*,(pBFVB$E01aO$)p01F@?SMNP42$L01jE0$Wu>DBF@?S Mr" 1Q_ v*T (2$L01 `T> j= ZN) 8BO$?G 8; :2$AB 3L6 3S g=N z0Q0aO$)R MN 3V= m?L; aO$)p01 5?S d6$J(B 3S Y; aO$?G Y[0 FJ)E0$; ,(pB aO$)p01
.g?Ew10000 F?=$01T.*g?Ew100 +0Tn1aO$?)01
5?S MN P4 a>?t IP$7 !" >/p,0 Fu>D]1 y$?n1 5?S ZT$)B d* 5>01 +,%T:
$WE*
Y*1'%
a3%
+04
z0{
vw>6T
&>Rn
a37T
d*
,(pB
>$)p01FVB$E01 aO$)p0$" :6#75& yCK1 ;?L01d%
.FC%$bd%:NO$Vj=1d%:NM$t>;d%:N>_$01#$i(P1
K6>L01d%FVB$E01aO$)p0$":]NCF&;?L01-'/01 d*+EJ]1M$t1{4$*l)L;$W(@?S,(pB
.#$D(.0F,;$C01&>Rn121']1d*TNl\p01d*TNZ2$D01
!"K6>7d%FVB$E01aO$)p0$":["+?49~&;?7 d% FVB$E01 aO$)p01 MN $@t#$D(.0F,;$S !_ Y_T21']1 eQ_ FD?J l)L; ,(p6 21']1_ N $i01 I$=1'/G1T F?$?@?[01 21']1 Y* a363 FwO3;
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
26/130
.F62$%21'*
+EJ*!"K6>7d%FVB$E01aO$)p0$":v"=F&;?"1'B&3*l)L;TN
.M$[]1d*$W;>S&3*T
23% v6'B d[@6 g=r" 2$7 +,% 2$7 d* aO$)p01 5?S `.(R4 F0$7 !"Td*TNaO$)RY[0a23L*F@?Sy$/%4#.Rd*z0{T) $W(@?Sl)7CCLB!(0121'L01F,~$@(*aO$?G5000 $E630M$t1{4#$]1Y?JG+,%.(aO$)p,0&3*TNI$|"y$/%4#.RFG1O3;T:2$AB2$71200 :$D01#.R373Sg=NT:2$AB2$L0Fu>D*F@?C01!">jA01d%$W(@?S36XBaO$)R600$E_MN8JB21'L01eQ_d%FVB$E01>$)p015?S2000 d*YSN+(7T1000 d*F@?SQR9BaO$)R300$E_ MNTUg?Ew1000 d%YCBTMNTUg?Ew3000 d*YSN+(7Tg?Ew2000 d*F@?SQR9BaO$)R150$E_MNTUg?EwaO$)R30$E_MNTUg?Ew4000 d*YSN+(7T3000 d*F@?S QR9BaO$)R90$E_d*F@?SQR9BaO$)R18$E_MNTUg?Ew5000 d*YSN+(7Tg?Ew4000 d*F@?SQR9Bg?Ew6000 d*F@?SQR9BaO$)R12$E_MNTUg?Ew6000 d*YSN+(7Tg?Ew5000
.g?Ew7000 d*YSN+(7T
5?C0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 #T3w 213%4 d[@6 g=r" FC;$)01 I$=$?J01 +,% y$E;T:!,6$@t>$)p01
6k"K75&{
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
27/130
:m?7aO$)RY[0F|j01
;TO5]OY%&*W5&+;TO5]`(%&*W5&=;T5&.g61
2
F|j01#' + F|j,0+=2n13L01=TN
!0$(0$;T 1000 +,%n1 $_37T >jb +=2n1 $_37 (1000 >jb) !_ +0Tn1 F|j0$":Mr"
500 = = F|j01Xt>*
500 = 1000 " +>jb=TN
$@(E* $D6'B F%'* F|" Yt YR12 FDS1'01 aO$)p01MN >(j= $E=N !ED6 1Q_TY@B$W(@?SF|"YtYR12FDS1'01>$)p01v?@wMNO$J(%1d[@6!0$(0$;TF|j01#'+,%!0$(0$;T2000 +,%n1$_37T1000 $_37(2000 1000) !_F?=$01F|j01TF|j01Xt>*
:Mr"
1500 = = F|j01Xt>*
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
28/130
.($WE*>JtN&>RNT$WE*>ibN5?S$E_MNZNG'(]1$ARY@LB$W=N
:;?JE4F&6k"K7O5;/p01h$?Sd[@6g=NK;$)01>D01d*$E0f}(6
d[@6 !(01 >$)p01 23% G'(*) aO$)p01 O1>[B #3D* -1Loss frequency ($W~T37
2- $W~T37F0$7 !" >$)p015?S G'(*) aO$)p01a9T) LossSeverity
$W0 >D(6 MN d[@6 !(01 FDS'(]1 >$)p,0 F?J)E01 F?@_n1 363LB d[@6 +(7T5?SG'(*TaO$)p01O1>[B#3D*d*Yt+,%2$@(%P1d*3;Pg=r"5WB$[,(@*TN21>"n1
.$W~T37F0$7!">$)p01
g*$@(_1 d* >tN aO$)p01F@?C; 5(p6 O1>C01 Qp(* Mr" xDJ01 3C(D6 $] $".RTMNd[@6$*Fb$RTa>?J[015?C01I1{>$)p01MN3V=#$]1Y?JG+,D"U$_O1>[B#3D@;F0$7!"13wa>?/RM'[B$W=r"1Q_v*T13wa>?ib$WBP$@(74M'[BF~O$[01g?,%K,/=Ua>?Jt $WBP$@(74 ZN aO>[(* M'[B !(01T F/?)J01 5?C01 I1{ >$)p01 d* $WCCLB
.a>?J[015?C01I1{>$)p0$;:$@(_P1lV6g=r"!0$(0$;T
F?,t TN F?Xw aO$)p0 $Wu>DBTaO$?)01:2$AB2$7 MN 3V=z0{ +,%#$@tTF@?SMr"1Q_v*TF?=3*F?0'|)*g?,%lB>(62$7T37#$@(74d*>JtNg0$@(74M'[6FVB$E01aO$)p01F@?Sd*>?[;>JtNM'[BF?0'|)*+04Z2H62$7d%FVB$E01aO$)p01>$)R !0'6 MN O1>C01 Qp(* +,% >j6 1Q_T aO$)p,0 $Wu>DBT aO$?)01 :2$AB d%
.$W0>D(6!(01O$/Rn1aO124O>C6$*3E%>JtNF?@_NF?=3]1F?0'|)]1
g?@)CB lV6 g=r" 371'01 aO$)p01 ^'E0 FJ)E0$; +(7 g=N KJG $* +04 `$}6lV6 g=r" aO$?)01:2$ABd% FVB$E01 F62$]1>$)p,0FJ)E0$J" UI$|" TN I$6'()* +,%g?Ew 5000 d% 36XB >$)R Ug?Ew 5000 2T37 !" >$)R :d[(0T I$|" +04 $W@?)CBM'[BMN#$@(74d*>?[;YSN5000 d*>JtNaO$)p01M'[BMN#$@(74MN3V=`'GT>JtN$*$@(_1 >Jtn1aO$)p01y$/%4d* 3;P g=NP4g?Ew 5000 2T37!"aO$)p01F@?S
.$WCCLB#$@(74$jp=1d*5>0$;
:;?JE4F&6k"K75&{*He*NY"Me"Y&61y@>_45&A1&E?5&
MN FDS'(]1 >$)p01 5?S >63CB 3E% >/p01 >63* +,% lV6 -1$W~T37d[@6 !(01 >$)p01^1'=Nv?@w eO$J(%1!" QR96d* $_>?~9B 363LB +04 F"$us$; 8D* 2$7 KCLB FV?(=Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 Mr" a2$%T a9\E]1 +,% F?0$]1 F?7$E01>/p01 >63* +,% lDA01 d* M'[6 F?@_N >tn1 aO$)p,0d*M'[6!(01TF?@_NYSn1&>Rn1^1'=n1[D;$_363LB>$)p01 Mr" z0{ +,% #$@tT U$_363LB g?,% YW)01YW)6 I$[,(@]1 $W0 >D(B MN d[@6 !(01 a>$J]1Y*) a>$J]1>?>$)p01[D;z0{T$*3C*FS3;$_>63CB(#13J(GP1TNc.bs1a>("#.RY@D01d%S'(01>$)R
!"O$J(%P1!"QRHBPm?72$L01j=d%$)p01 +04 F"$us$; 1Q_ U3LB +(7 M$?7n1 5D*F?0'|)]1 >$)R:Y* 2$L01j=d%Rn1
.o$pn1>$)RUF?=3]1
5?S363LB3E%eO$J(%1!"QR96MN>/p01>63*+,%lV6$@t-2aO$)R +04 Z2H6 3S 371'01 2$L01 MN FDS'(]1 >$)p01z0{Ta37Td*>tnTNpd*>tnTN+EJ*d*>tn
.>/p,0>D]1y!\01FD?Jl)7
F?$WE01 F,AL]1 MN O$J(%P1 !" QRH6 MN lV6 $}6NT -3F@?S d% 36XB 3S 371'01 2$L01 d% FVB$E01 >$)p,0
$_$=>t{ !(01 >$)p01 ^'@V* d% 36XB 3S Y; y!\01MN a9\E]1 IO>S 1{4 $?J)= a>?iA01 >$)p0$" .$C;$G#.R d* $WWw1'B $* $J0$ $W~T37 F0$7 !" $W,@L(B+04 $W,6'LB YW)6 !(01 #'bn1 #.R d* TN $WB121>64Fb$RYt$\*$W?,%lB>(6g=r"a>?J[01>$)p01$*NF63C=$Wu1>(S1Fj,[B^$jBO$;TNF?7$=d*F0'?)01>?;3BF;'DA;
.>$)p01eQ_Y*FWw1']&>RNF?7$=d*
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
29/130
Mr" $W(j,[B ^$jBO1T F0'?)01 >?;3B !(,[\* +04 `$}6T -4a>?/R F)t$D* I1>?~9B $W?,% lB>(6 3S a>?J[01 >$)p01Yt$\* +04 Z2H6 $@* a9\E@,0 !0$]1 ?/p(,0 FJ)E0$;MNTN$WB9Td*jpBMNa9\E@,0d[@6!(01Ta>?JtF?0$*>?;3B 5BT F613J01 d* O$J(%P1 !" $WBQRN 1{4 $_$$L(B
.$W(Ww1']Y*n1-',Gn1
Ruin a9\E]1O$*2+04Z2HB3S>$)p01xD;$E_MN$@t-5$DEA* $E630 MN >j= z0{ f?u'(0T of the Business$(=s1 >JE% q1>(71 +04 &2N K6>7 2$L0 >DB
&2N
$@t
Ug?Ew650000
,J@;
aO$)p01
IO3ST
gB$6'(L@;lB>BT >WN F(G a3] vEA]$; Y@D01 S'B +04 2$L01aO3S :3D0 FV?(=T g?Ew 600000 $_O3S aO$)R z0{ +,%1250000 i,; !(01 >$)p01 eQ_ Y@LB +,% vEA]13000000 ,J@; g0'bN D?;T vEA]1 q.4 5B 3C" g?EwvEA]1 F0T1X* y$E~N #'bn1 eQ_ d@~ MN 87 !" g?Ew&>RN aO$)R !ED6 $@* g?Ew 4800000 ,JB g$\E0
.g?Ew1800000 $_O3S
T376O$Ba$%1>*aO$)p01F@?S>63CB3E%lV6g=r"$}6NT-6Mr" #$]1 Y?JG +,D" UaO$)p01q$CL(G1 6O$BT 2$L01P FEG 20 a3]T g?Ew 20000 $W(@?S F6'EG aO$)RT37
400000 $W(@?S P$7 a371T aO$)R $WB9T !" ZT$)B2'CE01 F@?S `.(R4 :[0%& yCK5& :8JJ)0 z0{T g?Ew+,% d*X01 >AE% >?~9B ZN) $WS$CL(G1 6O1'B `.(Rr;g?Ew 20000 $W(@?S F6'EG aO$)R Mn z0{T (2'CE01 F@?Sg?Ew 400000 $_O3S >$)R ^'@V* !EDB FEG 20 a3]>$)p01eQ_5ARTO$J(%P1!"d*X01>AE%QR9;d[0T1{r") 1>?t $W(@?S $jp=1 +04 Z2H6 8D* a3$" #3D@;F?0$L01 $W(@?S Mr" %10 #3D@; FC;$)01 0$J]1 $E@ARaO3S '_ :_`"\5& yCK5&0 Ug?Ew 170271 ZT$)BFEG 20 #.R g?Ew 400000 ,J* 213G +,% a9\E]1FEG !"a371T a>*,J]11Q_KL()6$*3E% #$L01[D;FV?(=aO$)Rg?,%lB>(6K6>72$7T37Mr"$}6NT.$*
$}6Ng?Ew1000000 $W(@?S$@;gB$6'(L*T +EJ]1q1>(71+(7 YSn1 +,% I1'EG 4OT>*YJS $_213G 5(6 d0 d[0T
.F?0'|)]$;F@[L]1d*5[7OT3b5(6
^$jBO1[DBm?L;$_>63CB3D;>$)p015?SY63DBlV6$@t-7>$)p01 a2$6 TN #13J(GP1 TN c.bs1 ?0$[B O$DGN5Wu>DB 3E% #$@D,0 F7'E@]1 $61X]1 F@?S a2$6 TN FDS'(]1
.2$L0
h$GN+,%$_>63CB5B3SFDS'(]1>$)p01F@?S=$t1{4z0{f?u'(0T3S#13J(GP1TNc.bs1 O$DGNMNTg?Ew 10000 ,J@;FC;$GI1'EG5 a>JRMr"!0$(0$;T:2$C01:$D01!"%10#3D@;$WB2$6vS'(6$@t%50#3D@;I21
= fJAB :2$C01 :$D01 !" FDS'(]1 >$)p01 F@?Sg?Ew16500
F?%'=!"I1>?i(01>?~9BO$J(%P1!"QRH6MNlV6g=r"1>?RNT-8!"$}6NTF|?J0$;Fb$p01>/p01I$JJ)*!"Ty$EJ0121'*!" FDS'(]1 aO$)p01 F@?S >63CB +,% M$*n1 ;
.YJC()]1
:;?JE410-;O+4W1'!"K$]^J-0;N=+1'!"K$]^J-
The maximum possible loss and the maximum probableU`T>01 N'GN Y !" $W~T37 d[@6 aO$)R +ASN !_ FE[@* aO$)R +ASNd[@6 g?,%T U8D* #$@(7r; $W~T37 d[@6 aO$)R +ASN !_ F,@(L* aO$)R +ASNTMN>j=z0{f?u'(0T.FE[@*aO$)R+ASNd%YCBF,@(L*aO$)R+ASNM9;#'C01$E_MNa$%1>*v*FS>)01>/p0Fu>D*Tg?Ew50000 ,J@;$WB$6'(L*O3CBFC$E630(01..1'L01 !" F(J* $W=n TN $W=T YC0 $*4) $W(S>G lDA6 !(01 I$6'(L]1 xD;+04g(@?S YAB 3Sg(S>Gd[@6 $* MN ED6 1Q_Tg?Ew 20000 ,J@;$WE@~ O3C6 (01T
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
30/130
>$)p015?C0!0$@(7s1 v6'(0$;Fb$p01FC;$)01I$=$?J01LuTN$@t Ug?Ew 30000I$=$?J01 +,%y$EJ"U25000 g(@?S i,; FS>G 2$7 >JtNMN FC\01eQW0F,~$@]1 KC\,0
:M9;#'C01d[@6FC;$)01
.g?Ew50000 \01F@?S
g?Ew30000 =>/p,0>D]1,J]1= FE[@*aO$)R+ASN
g?Ew25000 F,@(L*aO$)R+ASN
:_s">65&bJE45&0-'!"K75&bJEe
:Expectation of loss or Mathematical Expectation
21>"n1d*2>"Yt$WD"36!(01F@?C01d%aO$J%!u$6>01vS'(01TNaO$)p01vS'BvS'(011Q_TU5W}D;$W0>D(6!(01>$)p01213)0!j[Bm?L;8D*>/p08u>D]1>/p01jE08u>D]121>"n1d*2>"Ytv"36m?L;8*9(01)S-$)7!":3p()6UaO$)p0 5WE* >D(6 d] x6'D(01 213); :'CB !(01T 8*9(01 Ft>\0 )C01 1Q_21>"n1 d* 8*9(01 Ft> $W,ALB !(01 0$J]1 &T$)(B MN F013D01 T> !}(CBT!" QR9B MN MT2) aO$)p0 5WE* >D(6 d] $WD"3B !(01 0$J]1 v* >/p,0 8u>D]1
:MNZN(F,AL]10$J]1O$@(G1TNI.?@L(01>AE%O$J(%P1
R1'(*KF&5"CF&IE+@1=;g6|O5(&6U%&R1;O^WF&5"CF&IE+@1
(&6U5;g6|5&6#7O52s6?F&(*Y!(7Ag(*9"1) '!"K75&bJEe
G~",(*Y!'!"K75&;+(s1-$)7 3E% O$J(%P1 !" a3$j01 #3D* QRN d* 3;." !0$(0$;T F,6' I1>(" 3D; (8*9(01F0$L01eQ_!"T3S$D(01F613;3E%0$J]1eQW0F?0$L01F@?C012$V6r;z0{T!u$6>01vS'(01
.YwH]1!u$6>01vS'(01TNYwH]1aO$)p01vS'B:aO$)p01vS'B+,%K,/6
;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
31/130
S[" fu'=T:8?0$(01
:(1) ["\1
q$jBP15BUg?Ew50000 $W(@?Sa363waO$?G5WE*Ytz,(@6p2000 $E630M$t1{4Fj,[BG'(*MN@,%1{r"FE)01#.R2$L0>D(BaO$?GZNc.b4+,%5WE?;$@?"l)71.2$L0$WE*aO$?G60 >DB>(E6g=NTg?Ew4000 2$7Y[0aO$?)01c.b4
.pYtd*g,?ALBlw1'01,J]1
:AW5&
{M5'(*KF&5"CF&IE+@1= &64"g(&6U%&R1;O^WF&5"CF&IE+@1>E?4g
'!"K75&G~",(*Y!'!"K75&= 2g64|F&(*Y!KH5&0-&64:&\
)C01TN1>(s1hm?7 60 "4000 = 2000 "h
g?Ew120 = = (Yw$D01vS'(01) h
aO$)p01T37#$@(74"aO$)p01F@?S= (Yw$D01vS'(01) h
g?Ew120 = "4000 =
!0$(0$;T>(\*2000$E_MNTg?Ew120 $*3C*v"36`'GpYtMN!ED61Q_TYt+,%lB>(62$760 3L6`'Gg=NTUg?Ew240000 = 2000 "120Y?ALB5(6
:213G5(6!0$(0$;Tg?Ew4000 $_O3SaO$)R2$7
.a23)]10$J]1v*F,AL]10$J]1#2$D(B!0$(0$;T g?Ew240000 = 4000 "60
:(2) ["\1
213G+,%5WE?;q$jBP15B35 d)01:$@B>@D01d*M'i,J6p5000 $=3?0M$t1{4Yt d* g,?ALB lw1'01 ,J]1 l)71 U55 d)01 5WE* ,J6 d* Y[0 g?Ew 20000 ,J*0$J]1 O$@(G1 d[@6 g=NT 55 d)01 p 1000 ',; >(E6 g=N @,% 1{4 p
.$6'EG%12#3D@;F,AL]1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
32/130
:AW5&
Mr"$*$%20OT>*3D;ZN55 d)01:$@B,J6d]v"36 'Gg?,%Kj(]1,J]1MNm?7.YwH]1!u$6>01vS'(01Y@6pYtd*g,?ALBlw1'01,J]1TN)C01
(&64:&) ADtF&_s">65&bJE45&
;+jE* FDS'(]1 aO$)p01 5V7 TN aO$)p01.>/p01Fj,[B363LB
2$L0gu>DB#$@(74Tg?Ew500000 g(@?S$DEA*$E630M$t1{4z0{f?u'(0TC" aO$)p01#$@(74 O$J(%P1 !" $=QRN 1{r" 0.003'_ F?,t aO$)R +04 Z2H6 K6>75V7O$J(%P1!"$=QRN1{4TU13wF}jpE*aO'/p01FwO2M9;$%$J/=1!/D6z0{Mr"1{4 $*N .13w FDjB>* aO'/p01 FwO2 M9; $%$J/=1 !/D6 z0{ Mr" C" FDS'(]1 aO$)p01aO$)p01vS'Bg?,%K,/6$*'_T$D*aO$)p015V7TaO$)p01#$@(74O$J(%P1!"$=QRN
:Mr"!u$6>01vS'(01TN
S"1'B 1{4>R +ED@;T UF,~$@(]1 I137'01 d* a>?Jt 213%N>"1'B Y !" TN Y6'/01Yt d%1>($tg?Ew 1500 ,J*213G5BT I$jb1']1T F@?C01j=5W0$DEA* 1000Yt8;d*g=Nm?7TU$6'EGg?Ew1500000 = 1500 "1000 $E630v@V(6g=r"vEA*"3 fJAB>$)p01^'@V*Mr"(0.003) F?,taO$)p0v=$A*3 >D(6vEA*1000
.F,AL]1I$t1>(s1v*#2$D(B!_T1500000 = 500000
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
33/130
:6k"K75&
G'(*T aO$)p01T37 #$@(74 $E630 >"1'(6 M$t !u$6>01 vS'(,0 $E;$)7 3E%3S d[0T U!u$6>01 vS'(01 d% aO$J% $@W;>u Yb$7T $W~T37 F0$7 !" aO$)p01 F@?S
.>$)p01eQ_5?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01T>$)p0123D0!0$@(7s1v6'(01$E630>"1'(6
F@?C0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 d* aO$)p01 O1>[B #3D* 363LB 5(6 F0$L01 eQ_ !"TYAL=$W~T37F0$7!"aO$)p01F@?SG'(*!"aO$)p01O1>[B#3D*->};TaO$)p01
:MNZNaO$)p01vS'BTN!u$6>01vS'(01+,%
;BE45&R1_s">65&bJE45&0-'!"K75&bJEe
;+" d69(,0 q>\01 Ft> a>JR FG1O3;:>$)p015?ST23%l)7F?0$(01I$=$?J01+,%$E,A7FEGa3]>/p,0Fu>D*
m(&EW5&(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&(6) [0*D
m(&EW5&(*Y G&*,E5&(*Y
0 4300
1 465
2 180
3 45
4 10
IE+@F& 5000
'!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
34/130
'!"K75&bJEe"K,:EO#F&
:AW5&
'!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
35/130
5500 19 0.019 104.5
6500 8 0.008 52
IE+@F& 1000 1.00 1504
(() /!) @1= '!"K75&;+$)p01 5?C0 !0$@(7s1700 $_23%T F?S$J01T a37T 4300 $_23%T 2$7 Zn >D(B 50 I137T +04 a37T
180 u>DBT 371T 2$L0 a37T 465 u>DB :m?7 YSn1 +,% 371T 2$L0 u>DBMNZN21'7FD;OnI137T10 u>DBT21'7F~.0a37T45 u>DBT8~2$L0a37T(4 "10) + (3 "45) + (2 "180) + (1 "465) = 21'L0123%!0$@w4
40 + 135 + 360 + 465 =
2$71000 =
0.2 = = (2$L01O1>[B#3D*) 21'L0123%G'(*
F@?SG'(*21'7+04$W(@?Sl)7(2$71000) 21'L0123%v6'B5B$@t
$WE*aO$)p01F@?SG'(*21'7TU2$7482 $_23%Tg?Ew500 $WE%FVB$E01aO$)p01$_23%Tg?Ew2500 $W?"aO$)p01F@?SG'(*21'7TU2$7261 $_23%Tg?Ew150021'7TU2$774 $_23%Tg?Ew3500 $W?"aO$)p01F@?SG'(*21'7TU2$7124F@?S G'(* 21'7 1>?RNT U2$7 19 $_23%T g?Ew 5500 $W?" aO$)p01F@?S G'(*
:MNZN21'78 $_23%Tg?Ew6500 $W?"aO$)p01
3500 + "500 + "1500 + "500 = aO$)p01F@?SG'(*
"6500 + "500 + "4500 + "
1504 = 52 + 104.5 + 148 + 259 + 307.5 + 391.5 + 0.241 =
aO$)p01F@?SG'(*"aO$)p01O1>[B#3D*= aO$)p01vS'B
300.8 = 1504 !0.2 = aO$)p01vS'B\
:;BE45&6U&Ee;5",_U'!"K75&bJEe
>jbd*F613;>$)p015?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01$E630>"1'(6g=r"F0$L01eQ_!"$*$@B gJ\6 F?,[01 I1O$)p,0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01T UFE[@* aO$)R +ASN +(7T aO$)RgE%,(p6g=NP4K;$)01#$]1!"g0>D(01K;$)01aO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01aO$)p01 F@?S M'[B !0$(0$;T 2$L0 >D(B 50 !(01 I137'01 23% d@}(6 g=N !"F@?S G'(*T >$)p01 23% G'(* d@}(6 g=r" F0$L01 eQ_ !"T U>jb $W0 a>$E]1!0$@(7s1 v6'(01 d* aO$)p01 vS'B -$)7 (6T U371T #T3w !" $D* aO$)p01
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
36/130
:!,6$@tF?,[01I1O$)p,0
(()/!) @1=;BE45&R1'!"K75&bJEe
.FE?D*F|"!"aO$)p01^'ST#$@(74(h) cUI$|j01Xt1>*dGm?7
!0$@(7s1v6'(01d*aO$)p01vS'B-$)7F?j?t!0$(01#$]1#.Rd*fu'=T:F?,[01I1O$)p,0
:["\1
>D*T
g?Ew6500
g(@?S
#XE]
F?,[01
I1O$)p,0
!0$@(7s1
v6'(01
d%
M$?;
!,6
$@?":FE)01#.R>tn1+,%K6>72$L0
;BE45&(10) {J! [0*D
'!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
37/130
:m("W5&m0*,["+4,)
+,%K6>72$L0>D*+EJ]1MNT0.8'_aO$)RT37:3%#$@(74MNm?7C" a371T 2$L0 >D(6 TN FE)01 #.R 2$L0 >D(6 P $*4 ZN FE)01 #.R >tn1
:Mr"
1 = 2$7T37:3%#$@(74+ 2$7T37#$@(74
2$7T37:3%#$@(74 1 = 2$7T37#$@(74
0.2 = 0.8 1 =
:;?JE4F&'!"K75&;+BE45&aO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01ZNF?>\01aO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01aO$)RZNT37#$@(74->u#.Rd*g?,%#'AL015B3SvST3S2$L01MN>\;
:MNZN2$L01T37#$@(74!"F?>
#$@(74"2$L01T37#$@(74= g?Ew500 aO$)p01F@?SM'[BT2$7T37#$@(74:vST3S2$L01MN>\;g?Ew500 $W(@?SaO$)RT37
S
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
38/130
:;j,1
d[@6g=r"F?>\01>$)p,0!0$@(7s1v6'(01T2$L01T37#$@(74$E@,%1{4F@?SY[0>$E]1#$@(7s1->};z0{TF?,[01I1O$)p,0!0$@(7s1v6'(01+,%#'AL01$W(@?S F613J01 !" F|" F"$u4 v* 2$L01 T37 #$@(74 !" F?>\01>$)p01 5?S d*
.(aO$)RT37:3%#$@(74ZN) 2$L01T37#$@(74Y@[*'_$W0$@(74T>jb
F?>\01>$)p,0!0$@(7s1v6'(0$;Fb$p01T(11) 5SO#T3wI$=$?J0FJ)E0$J"#T3V011QW;a2'w']1IP$@(7s1->};g=r"0.2'_2$L01T37#$@(74MN$E@,%1{4$E=r"(0.8 = 0.2 1) $W0$@(74T>jb$W(@?SF613J01!"F|"vuT5~#$@(7s11Q_!"
:!0$(01#T3V01+,%YAL=
;BE45&(12) {J![0*D
'!"K75&;+$)Ra3%371'01>/p01lJ)*d%D(63S&>RNIP$7!"TU371'01>/p,0I$JJ)*a3%>/p,0>D]1\01Fu>D* I137T a3% $E_ M'[B 3S 1>?RNT UFE)01 #.R 2$7 d* >tn >/p,0 >D]1M'[6 FC;$)01IP$L01v?@w !"T UFE)01#.R >tNTN 2$L0 Fu>D* $WE* YtT >/p,0363LB d* P3; FE)01 #.R >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 363LB Y}"n1 d*
.a371'01aO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01
1>?i(* >J(D6 FE)01 #.R 3LB !(01 >$)p01 ^'@V*Y_ :xDJ01 #y$)(6 3STg0$?0$@(74$D6'B213%45(6$?1'\%
!u$]1 :$D01 d% ,(p6 :$D01 1Q_ #.R >$)p01 ^'@V*Mn {?` bC#5"c:;c"D:&F0$7T37vE@6P1Q_M$tM4TF*2$C01:1'%n1F?C;d%T:2$C01:$D01d%,(p6`'GT#.R d*T UYb$" $@WE?; TN 8?0$((* y1'G 8*$% #.R >$)p01 ^'@V* &T$)(6 MN>$)p01 ^'@V* TN I1'E)01 d* >?Jt 23% #.R FE?D* Ft>\0 >$)p01 ^'@V* FG1O2+,% #'AL01 d[@6 g=r" F,~$@(]1 I137'01 d* >?Jt 23D0 a>Jp01 a>(" #.R F6'E)01
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
39/130
.>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01
23% G'(* d% aO$J% g/G'(* M'[6 >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01Tv6'(01 3?j6T U371'01 2$L01 d% FVB$E01 aO$)p01 F@?S G'(* !" $;T>}* 21'L01
;>EN9 6k"K$ {$)RZQ01F,@(L*aO$)R+ASN[D;21'L01eQ_d%FVB$E01>$)p015?S+04F"$us$;
.C"371'012$L01d%FVB$E01>$)p015?S+,%3@(D6
g;$)7 !" 3@(D6 F,@(L* F6'EG >$)R ^'@V* +ASN Mr" IP$@(7s1 Fi,;T3@(DB$W=r"F,@(L*aO$)R+ASN$*N:$%Y[0>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01+,%
.2$7Y[0a371'01aO$)p,0!0$@(7s1v6'(01+,%$W;$)7!"
5?C01 fu'6 F6'E)01 >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 MN KJG $@* ,p=F@?SYtT3L0>$E]1#$@(7s1T3LBMNd[@6!(01F6'E)01>$)p01^'@V]Fj,(p]15 z,(@B a9\E@; o$p01T !0$(01 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 QR9= z0{ f?u'(0T U5?C01 eQ_ d*>tn1+,%371T2$L0Fu>D*aO$?GYtT g?Ew 20000 a371'01aO$?)01F@?S I1O$?G(FE)01 #.R >tn1 +,% 21'7 F)@p0 Fu>D*T a371T aO$?G z,(@B TN) FE)01 #.R
:!,6$@t>$)p015?S^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01M$tT
;>ENK5&6k"K75&{
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
40/130
:;j,1
5?S ^'@V* Mr" g?Ew 20000 a371'01 aO$?)01 F@?S I1O$?G 5 z,(@B a9\E]1 MN m?7g~T37d[@;F6'EG>$)R^'@V*!ASNY@BF@?C01eQ_Tg?Ew100000'_I1O$?)01>$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 !" F6'EG >$)R ^'@V* !ASN Mr" 1Q_ v*T U>$)R!ASN$W=Nh$GN!,%$*4$_>?)jBd[@6F@?C01eQ_Tg?Ew60000'_F6'E)015B F?@[LB F@?S $W=N h$GN !,% $_>?)jB d[@6 $@t U FE)01 #.R YDj0$; ~37 3S
.?)J(,0$Wu1>("4
^'@V* Mr" g?Ew 20000 a371'01 aO$?)01 F@?S I1O$?G 5 z,(@B a9\E]1 MN>$)R ^'@V* +ASN Y@B F@?C01 eQ_T g?Ew 100000 '_ I1O$?)01 5?Sv6'(01 !" F6'EG >$)R ^'@V* +ASN Mr" 1Q_ v*T g~T37 d[@6 F6'EGd[@6 F@?C01 eQ_T g?Ew 60000 '_ F6'E)01 >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7P1UFE)01 #.R YDj0$; ~37 3S >$)R +ASN $W=N h$GN +,% $*4 $_>?)jB
.?)J(,0$Wu1>("15BF?@[LBF@?S$W=N+,%$_>?)jBd[@6$@t
:;>ENK5&6k"K75&{SZN{$pB1-3.8*9(01a2$%4c$;ONF0'@%U8*9(01a2$%4
+,% 3@(D6 Ruin Probability a9\E]1 O$*2 IP$@(74 363LB -4.>$)p015?S^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(0$;:$]s1
v6'(0$;:$]s1+04$(L6FJG$E]1>/p01FWw1'*FC6>363LB-5.>$)p015?S^'@V]!0$@(7s1
d6$JBT G'(* +,% 3@(D6 (3D; $@?" &>EG $@t) >/p01 h$?S -6.>$)p015?S^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01
X?@(6>$)p015?S^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01363LBMr"1>?RNT-7.371T{'@=!">$)p0$;Fb$p01I$=$?J01v?@w?p,(;
R=+> S`iU 6k"K75& {jbZT$)6 >$)R^'@V*T0.595'_ >jbZT$)6 >$)p015?S^'@V*ZN T37 :3% #$@(74 Y@6 #$@(7s1 1Q_ Mr" !0$(0$;T 2$7 ZN T37 :3% F0$7
:!"Y@(BFE[@]1IP$@(7s1v?@wMNm?7TU2$7
0"K>"+MYE+@1viU '!"K$m0*,["+4,)x'!"K$m0*, *Y["+4,)
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
41/130
o
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
42/130
SHHWe["+4,)
((:) c":)V*=
;>ENK5&6k"K75&IE+@19E41= :m?7
;TO47F&;>ENK5&6k"K75&IE+@1{ENK5&6k"K75&{D(B!(01F6'E)01>$)p01G'(*d%>JDBF@?C01eQ_T.a37+,%FEGYt!"?0TY6'/01
:21345&KJRY*>.e0-z0"Ke;>ENK5&6k"K75&v-["+4,)"K,-4
$W0>D(B3S!(01>$)p01F?/iBa9\E]1+,%u>%8*9(01Ft>MN>j=MN #$@(74 -$)7 d[@6 F0$L01 eQ_ !" U 4000 eO3S Z'EG 8*9B )SY;$C* a9\E]1:m?7F@?C01eQ_YSn1+,%ZT$)BF6'E)01>$)p01^'@V*
AJ%&]OYSJtNM'[BF6'EG>$)R^'@V*+04a9\E]1>D(BIP$L01xD;!"+04 Z2H6 $@* $W0 F*.01 F0'?)01 >?;3(; K,D(6 $@?" Fb$R U$W(Ww1'* +,% a9\E]1MN>j;TU&>RNa>*$W$\=F0T1X*+,%a9\E]1aO3S:3%+04Z2HB3Sa>?/RYt$\*F?0$*Yt$\*$W?,%lB>(6>tNTNg?Ew40000 $W(@?SZ'EGaO$)RZNMN>J(DBa9\E]1+,% ZT$)B F6'E)01 >$)p01^'@V*MN #$@(74 -$)7 d[@6 F0$L01 eQ_ !" Ua>?/R
:m?7F@?C01eQ_YSn1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
43/130
YSn1+,%g?Ew40000 ZT$)BF6'E)01>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74
g?Ew40000 ZT$)BZ'E)01>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74=
g?EV=60000 ZT$)BZ'E)01>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74+
0.004 =0.001 + 0.003 =
_`"\5&A^T5&]OY;O9-
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
44/130
aO'/p01FwO2 >%-1
P g=N P4 $?@t $G$?C* )?0 aO'/p01FwO2 MN d* 5>01 +,%) -2yCK5&6g8&'!"C?5&rnQ]OYqU&EeAQ.($W0$@_4d[@6
d* IP$@(70 Fj,(p]1 ^1'=n1 !_ $*T aO$)p01 #$@(74 >% -3.$W;$)7STm?7d*TNU$W;$)7FC6>:m?7
aO$)p01#$@(7r;aO'/p01FwO2FS.%237-4
:F?0$(01IP$@(70>$E]1aO'/p01FwO2l)71-5
100% U95% U75% U50% U25% U15% UU5%
:F?0$(01aO'/p01I$wO30>$E]1aO$)p01#$@(74237-6
100% U95% U75% U50% U25% U15% UU5%
I1O$?)01 >" a>Jp; Fb$p01T F?0$(01 I$=$?J01 z0 L?BN 1{4 -7:8*9(,0q>\01Ft>\;
m(&EW5&(*Y >jb 1 2 3
G&!"D(BMN-N
:2$C01:$D01#.RYSn1+,%C"371T2$L0aO$?)01>D(BMN--
:2$C01:$D01#.R>tn1+,%C"371T2$L0aO$?)01>D(BMN-
.:2$C01:$D01#.R2$7ZnaO$?)01>D(BPN-2
.FC;$)01I$=$?J01+,%y$E;aO$)p01O1>[B#3D*'_$*-_
Y_T>/p,0>D]1,J]1T>/p,0>D]1y!\01F@?S 8;MO$S-8.$@12M$j,(p*$@_
.FDS'(]1aO$)p015V7363LBF?@_NfuT-9
aO$)p01 F@?S `.(R4 +04 Z2HB !(01 Y*1'D01 !_ $* -10.>/p01jE0Fu>D]1y$?n15?SZT$)Bd*5>01+,%
q>\01 Ft>\; I1O$?)01 >" a>JR d% M$?; !,6 $@?" -11:8*9(,0
'!"K75&;U>jb 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
(*YG&*,E5&
520 210 130 70 45 25
'6C$]OYZ"Nc;
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
45/130
:2134O56|5&;g6
.g?Ew6000 U4000 8;$W(@?ScT1>(BaO$)Rg?,%lB>(62$L0aO$?)01>D(BMN-N
12000 U10000 8; $W(@?S cT1>(B aO$)R g?,% lB>(6 2$L0 aO$?)01 >D(B MN --.g?Ew
.FC;$)01I$=$?J01+,%y$E;371'012$L01d%FVB$E01aO$)p01F@?SG'(*'_$*T-.>/p01h$?S>b$E%237-12
.FDS'(]1>$)p01F@?S>63CB3E%$WB$%1>*lV6!(01Y*1'D01F%'@V*d%5,[B-1320000
i,;
3S
FC;$G
I1'EG4
a>JR
vS1T
d*
aO$)p01
5?S
G'(*
MN
@,%
1{4-14
#3D@; $WB2$6 >(E6T %35#3D@; I21 3S #13J(GP1T c.bs1O$DGN MNT g?Ew.:2$C01:$D01!"FDS'(]1aO$)p01F@?C0>63CB'_$@"U:2$C01:$D01!"%12
F,;$C01>?!=$J]1TOn1F@?S,JBUK6>7>/p0>D*g?Ew20000 g(@?SvEA*-15+,% $E,A7 F?u$]1 a>(j01 #.R aO$)p01 IP$7 FG1O3;T g?Ew 60000 q1>(7.0
:aO$)p015?C0!0$(01!0$@(7s1v6'(01
;+$)p01F@?Sl)74.
FEG 40 5_>@% 3?A01 Z2$= y$}%N d* F%'@V* KjB1 -16:$@B,J6d*Y[0g?Ew5000 213G+,%p6000 5_23%TMNTa3]1eQ_#.R1200MN>(E6g=N@,%1{r"55 d)01SO a>JR FG1O3; -18:>$)p015?ST23%d%F?0$(01I$=$?J01+,%
:m(&EW5&(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&:V~0-
m(&EW5&(*Y>jb 1 2 3 4
G&*,E5&(*Y 8380 1310 250 50 10
:'!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
46/130
.'!"K75&bJEe"K,:EO#F&
F?,[01 I1O$)p,0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 d% M$?; !,6 $@?" -19>tn1 +,% K6>7 2$L0 >D*T g?Ew 200000 g(@?S vEA]
:FE)01#.R
;+\01>$)p,0!0$@(7s1
a5"\5&A^T5&6#75&"/p01h$?S!"g*13p(GsF?$A7s1a12n1 !0$@(7s1v6'(,0ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1363LBF?@_N. !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 >"1'B :3% F0$7 !" >/p01 h$?S
F6'E)01>$)p01^'@V]. !"F6'E)01>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01363LB
a371T>/Ra37T2'wTF0$7 !"F6')E01>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01363LB
>/p,0I137Ta3%2'wTF0$7
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
47/130
a5"\5&A^T5&6#75&"$)p01 d% F?,Dj01 >$)p,0 lw']1 `1>L=s1 TN1{4z0{+,%y$E;TUFDS'(]1>$)p01d%F?,Dj01>$)p0136XBMNd*`'p01!"Y@(6>jb ZT$)6 (6 >/R $E_ M$t#$@(74FV?(=Y[0T(6>/R$E_M$t{4$*NU>/R3w'6P!0$(0$;T
.KCL(B 'G/p01 F@?S I21 $@,t
.>/p01F@?S$jp=1g?,%lB>(61Q_Mr"F?0$%FC~FwO3;$W;HJE(01d[@6TaO$)p,0 F?0$@(74 I$D6'B a3% $E630 >"1'(6 3S g=N KJG $* +04 `$}6 $@tf?u'(0TU>/p01F@?S !",(pBg=r"1Q_v*T(G'(]1) FDS'(]1F@?C01$W?"&T$)(B
:!0$(01#$]1O$J(%P1!"QR9=z0{!,6 $@?"T Ug?Ew 5000 $WE* Yt F@?S I1O$?)01 d* ^1'=N 3 z?,% >% :(1) ["\1
:aO$?GY[0a')E01>$)p,0!0$@(7s1v6'(01
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
48/130
_5"+4,:&b>BE45&[0%&
_5"+4,:&b>BE45&_`"\5&
_5"+4,:&b>BE45&a5"\5&
;+A*5[7!"F6'E)01aO$)p01F@?SfJABa371TFV?(=3w'BT(6!(01!_T%95 $W0$@(74`'G(62T3L*&3*QR9B>$)p01MN+04F"$us$;13w>?Jt$W0$@(74FV?(=.2T3L*gE[0T2'w'*(>/p01) FE[@]1JtN&3*QR9BFj,(p]1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
49/130
d[0T2'w'*(>/p01) FE[@]1/p01d*>JtNFwO3;:6#75&"$)p,0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01T >/p01 8; FS.D01 MN KJG $@* ,p=a12N+04$(L=$E=r">/p01aO1243E%d[0T!0$@(7s1v6'(,01X??@B>J(D6>/p01MN>$)p01 g?" `>LEB MN d[@6 ZQ01 &3]1 h$?S !" :3p()B Yardstick F?$A74a12N +04 $(L= $E=r" >R +ED@;T UY6'/01 Ywn1 !" FDS'(]1 >$)p01 d% F?,Dj01#'7 5?C01 O$\(=1 ?CB !(01 F?$A7s1 I1T2n1 d* 363D01 $E_T >/p01 h$?C0Standard ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 $*13p(G4 $_>tNT ?6$C]1 eQ_ 5_N d*T G'(]1
d%5?C01I$"1>L=1I$D;>*G'(]lw']1!D?;>(01OQV01) d%aO$J%'_TDeviationaO$J%M'[6ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1Mr"F?0$@(7s1I$D6'(01F0$7!"T(!;$)L01$W/G'(*$W/G'(*d%5?C01I$"1>L=1 I$D;>*->uYb$7^'@V]lw']1!D?;>(01OQV01) d%
.($WBP$@(74!"!;$)L01:F?0$@(7s1I$D6'(01d*ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1-$)7I1'/Rfu'=!,6$@?"T
Yb$7 ^'@V* d% aO$J% '_T) >$)p01 5?S G'(* -$)7 -1.($WBP$@(74!"aO$)p01I$|"Xt1>*->u
+@)6) >$)p01I$|" Xt1>*v?@w d* >$)p01 G'(* c> -2.($W/GTd%5?C01`1>L=$;
3- $W/GTd%5?C01I$"1>L=1v?;>B.
4- >$E]1 #$@(7s1 !" $W/GT d% 5?C01 I$"1>L=1 v;>* ->ud6$J(0$;+@)6$)p015?ShU("2d6$J(01OQw) ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 ":m?7.aO$)RYtT37#$@(74(h)cU>$)p015?S
:FC;$)01F~.01F?0$@(7s1I$D6'(,0ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1-$)75(6!,6$@?"T
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
50/130
50000
`1>L=s1"=223.607
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
51/130
1>?Jt:N1>?ib
ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1MN d* 8VB$=8C;$)01801H)01 M4 #'CE" z0{+,%l?V=lDA6 $@t g?,% 5[L01 lDA6 !0$(0$;T FC,/* F?@SO aO'b !" R h$?C* +,% >/p01 h$?S !" 3@(D=
:m?7Variationz!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
52/130
0 0.30 0 0
1000 0.25 250 250000
2000 0.20 400 800000
3000 0.15 450 1350000
4000 0.10 400 1600000
IE+@F&1.00
1500 =4000000
"2(1500)4000000 =
1322.876 = 175000 =
F0X(p]1h5?S!,%YALE"#d[?0T>(\*Y*$%!,%h5?SF@)Sd[@6$@t(F0X(p]1 h) o 5?SG'(* '_ F?,bn1h5?SG'(* M'[6T oX*>0$;$W0X*>E0T
:MNZNU#>(\]1Y*$D01!"$;T>}*
=
h) 5?C0 ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 '_ F?,bn1 5?C0 ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 Mr" $}6NT:MNZNU[>(\]1Y*$D01!"$;T>}*(F0X(p]1
[ !" = "
:!,%YAL=K;$)01#T3V01I$=$?;!,%z0{K?J/(;TZO$?D]1`1>L=s1-$)7(9) 5SO#T3w
'!"K75&
["+4,:&)/)
'!"K75&(;5.47F&)
1000 =
!'!"K75&["+4,:&
)/!)
!2'!"K75&["+4,:&
)/!2)
0 0.30 0 0 0
1000 0.25 1 0.25 0.25
2000 0.20 2 0.40 0.80
3000 0.15 3 0.45 1.35
4000 0.10 4 0.40 1.60
IE+@F& 1.00 1.5 = 4
= 1000 =#m?7
1500= 1000!
1.5 =
2}(()/!)V*{ (()/!2)V* = "
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
53/130
21.5 4 = "
1.322876 = "
[ !" = "
.FV?(E01j=!_T1322.876 = 1000!1.322876 =$@W=N>/p01h$?S!"ZO$?D]1`1>L=s1TN`.(Rs1Y*$D*:13p(G4l?D6T371TT >jb8;g0.RvC6MN d[@6ZQ01 Z3]1 cT1>(6 m?7) aO$)p01 #$@(74 `.p;?0!0$(0$;TF6$W=P$*T>jb8;g0.R$DC6MNd[@6ZQ01&3]1cT1>(6m?7(f?Lb
.$@_>?)jBYW)01d*!" M$j,(p6 8?0$@(74 8D6'B 8; F=O$C]1 !" `.(Rs1 Y*$D* F?@_N 1T3JBT h$?C@tZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1:13p(G4d[@6PF0$L01eQ_!"g=naO$)p,0FDS'(]1F@?C01QR9=z0{f?u'(0TU8D6'(018;aO$)p,0FDS'(]1F@?C01ZT$)B>LBP4>/p,0
:!0$(01#$]1
g(@?S !=$01T g?Ew 120000 g(@?S #Tn1 :80XE* 37N y1> z?,% >% :(2) ["\1K6>L,0F,;$C01>?y$?n1F@?S,JBTUK6>72$L0>D*$@WE*YtTg?Ew140000
:!,6$@taO$)p,0!0$@(7s1v6'(01M$tTU%20
_`"\5&_5"+4,:&b>BE45& [0%&_5"+4,:&b>BE45&'!"K75& ["+4,:& '!"K75& ["+4,:&
0 0.20 0 0.20
15000 0.30 25000 0.35
35000 0.25 50000 0.30
55000 0.15 75000 0.10
75000 0.06 100000 0.05
95000 0.04
O$(pB80XE]1Z9"`.(Rs1Y*$D*ZN)YSNg?">/p01F@?SM'[BZQ01#XE]1O$?(R45(?GvJ/0$;:AW5&
:!0$(01'LE01!,%z0{5(6TU(YSNe>$)p0!0$@(7s1v6'(,0
[0%&_5"+4,:&b>BE4O5z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
54/130
25257.87
0.848==>/p01F@?S\29800
25257.87
0.263==>/p01F@?S:TN96000
(FE[@*F@?S!ASNTN)>/p,0>D*F@?S!ASN:m?796000 = 80% !120000 =
_`"\5&_5"+4,:&b>BE4O5z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
55/130
:()_5"+4,:&b>BE4O5z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
56/130
!#
=[ :m?7*>*@5&G&*,E5&(*Y
={>*H5&G&*,E5&(*Y
! =
{>*H5&6#75&;+*H5&6#75&;+*@5&G&*,E5&(*Y *>*@5&G&*,E5&(*Y
OQV01 ZT$)B g(@?S Y*$D@; (S$E(B TN 361X(B) >?i(B 563C01 >/p01 F@?S \
QR9= z0{ f?u'(0T U563C01 I137'01 23%T 363V01 I137'01 23% 8; FJ)E,0 !D?;>(01:!0$(01#$]1:(3) ["\1
v6'(01 #.R d*T I1O$?G 4 $W630 F?%1OX01 Y?b$L]1 YCE0 &3W01 Ft>ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1T2000G'(]1MN$E08JBF6'E)01>$)p015?S^'@V]!0$@(7s1F@?S+,%z0{>?~9B$@"U&>RNaO$?G2 23%y1>IO>SFt>\01MN@,%1{r"U3500
.>/p01:AW5&
ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1= 563C01>/p01F@?S
G'(]1
1.75 = =
*>*@5&G&!"*H5&G&!"$)p01^'@V*G'(*9G'(*!/D69 !"->}01Ta371Ta37TG'(*!/DB4 +,%F@)C01:;j,1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
57/130
(I137T
FC;$)01F7.]1j= !3500 = 363V01ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s15250 = 1.5 !3500 =
1.167 = = 363V01>/p01F@?S+,% 563C01 >/p01 F@)S #.R d* a>$J* FV?(E01 eQW0 #'b'01 d[@]1 d*T
:a2$6X01Y*$D*OQw
ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1= 563C01>/p01F@?SG'(]1
1.75 = =
{>*H5&6#75&;+*@5&6#75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
58/130
3.0625 = !0.1225
3.0625 =2M!0.030625
100 = =2M \
1.75 d* >/p01 x?jpB +04 Z2H6 ZQ01 363V01 I137'01 23% Y@B 2M m?70.35 +04
6k"K75&
IE+@F
_5"+4,:&
b>BE45&
6U&Ee
h*Y
;5",
_U
6#75&
"ENK5&!"TFD;$((*>$)Ra3%371'01>/p01lJ)*d%$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01213%43E%Yt$\*a3%$EWw1'Bd[0T!0$@(74 v6'B213%4 5(6 +(7 I1'E)01 d* 13w >?Jt 23% +04 $(L= $E=N $W@_N d*$WD?@VB 5(6 FEG ZN #.R 3LB !(01 >$)p01 v?@w Mn z0{T g?,% 2$@(%P1 d[@6
Mr"
!0$(0$;T(
>$)p01
^'@V*)
!1'\D01
>?i(]1
5?S
37N
d%
>JDB
a371T
F@?S
>J(DBT>JD6d0$J0$F?u$*FEG30TN20 a>JRd*g?,%YAL=3SZQ01!0$@(7s1v6'(01$}6NT.>/p0$;F/?L]1`T>01>?iB$*4TO$DGn1>?iB$*4YJC()]1!"3L?G$@%I137'01 d* 13w >?Jt 23% +04 >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 213%s $(L= 3Sg=N !" Y@(B $}6N F,[\]1T U371T #T3w !" $WB>JR v?@VB 5~ (I\E]1) F,~$@(]1y$?n1 5?S TN >/p,0 $Wu>DB !" y1'G F,~$@(]1 I137'01 d* >?Jt 23% >"1'B lDA6
.$WE*Yt!">/p,0Fu>D]1>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01213%r;&>RNF,?GT$E*$*NM'[6P!0$(0$;TUaO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01T21'L0123D0!0$@(7s1v6'(01+,%2$@(%P1&'G!" g*13p(G4TaO$)p01F@?C0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01213%4F?j?t !,6 $@?" fu'= `'GT
.>/p01h$?S!"g*13p(G4+04F"$us$;Fj,(p]1IP$@(7s1-$)7
'*,0
(ED0
;5",
_U
6k"K75&
IE+@F
_5"+4,:&
b>BE45&
*>*We:
V~0-:'*,&06#$UvEA* UaO$?G) a371T >/R a37T $W630 M'[6 a9\E]1 Mr" F0$L01 eQ_ !"d* >tN TN FE)01 #.R >tn1 +,% 371T 2$L0 Fu>D* M'[B a37'01 eQ_T (FE?jGTNa>*Yt!"F(;$~aO$)R$*42$L01+,%lB>(6g=r"80$L01!"TUFE)01#.R2$7v6'(01 363LB F?j?t !,6 $@?" fu'=T U(a>?i(* aO$)R) >R 2$7 d* $W(@?S >?i(Bv6'(01 :13p(Gr; a371T >/R a37T 2'wT F0$7 !" >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1v;On1 IP$L01 !" aO$)p01 F@?C0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 TN 21'L01 23D0 !0$@(7s1
.FC;$)016#75&'*,06?e;5",_U6k"K75&IE+@F_5"+4,:&b>BE45&*>*We-1
:;4c"'!"K75&06\g%&]OYm("W5
2$L0 Fu>D* M'[BTa371T >/R a37T z,(@B a9\E]1 MN 3V= F0$L01 eQ_ !"fu'=T$@12F(;$~aO$)Rg?,%lB>(6g=r"gCCLBF0$7!"TFE)01#.R>tn1+,%371T.>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01 363LBF?j?t!0$(01#$]1#.Rd*
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
59/130
:(5) ["\1!,6 $@?"T FS>)01 >/p0 Fu>D*T g?Ew 2000 $W(@?S F?E" F7'0 p z,@(6
:aO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01T21'L0123D0!0$@(7s1v6'(01
(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&m(&EW5&
;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
60/130
2[((:) c!:)V*] ((:)c!2:)V* = "
2(400) 800000 =
160000 800000 =
" = 640000 = 800\
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
61/130
0.006 = 0.03 !0.20 = g?Ew30000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74-0.004 = 0.02 !0.20 = g?Ew40000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74-
:!,6$@t>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01M'[6T
6k"K75&IE+@F_5"+4,:&b>BE45&6k"K75&IE+@1 ["+4,:&
>jb 0.800
5000 0.120
10000 0.050
20000 0.020
30000 0.006
40000 0.004
IE+@F& 1.000:!0$(01'LE01+,%ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1-$)75(6>/p01h$?C0T
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
62/130
64|F&A1"?5&! 2[ ((h)/!h) @1] - ((h)/! 2h) @1 = "
5000 ! 2
(0.368) 1.112 =
5000 !0.135424 1.112 =
"\ = 0.976576
!
5000 = 4941.093
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
63/130
:AW5$@(7r;) 2$L013L6PN$*4g=N21'L0123D0!0$@(7s1v6'(01d*f}(6
8~2$73L6MN$*4TU(0.14#$@(7r;)C"371T2$73L6MN$*4T(0.80.(0.02#$@(7r;) FE)01#.R21'73 3L6MN$*4TU(0.04#$@(7r;)
F0$7!"g=Nm?7F(;$~$W=NaO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01d*f}(6$@t:z0{+,%lB>(6TU(1.00#$@(7r;) 2000 $@12aO$)p01F@?SMr"2$L01T37ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*Mr"(0.80#$@(7r;) 2$7ZNT37:3%F0$7 !"g=N-
.>jb\0.80 = 2$7ZNT37:3%#$@(74=>jbZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74
2000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*Mr"(0.14#$@(7r;) 371T2$7T37F0$7 !"g=NT-.(1.00#$@(7r;)
M'[BT371T2$7T37#$@(74= g?Ew2000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74\0.80 = 1.00 !0.80 = g?Ew2000 g(@?S
2 !2000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*Mr"(0.04#$@(7r;) 8~2$7T37F0$7!"g=NT-.g?Ew4000 =
YtF@?SM'[BT8~2$7T37#$@(74 = 4000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74\0.04 = 1.00 !0.04 = g?Ew2000 2$7
!
2000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*Mr"(0.02#$@(7r;) 21'73 T37F0$7!"g=NT-6000 = 3M'[BT21'73 T37#$@(74= g?Ew6000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74\
0.02 = 1.00 !0.02 = g?Ew2000 2$7YtF@?Sv6'(01d%aO$J%M'[6>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01MNKJG$@*7.=T
F(;$01aO$)p01F@?S!"21'L0123%2'@%5?S->uv*21'L0123D0!0$@(7s1:>$)p01^'@V]!0$(01!0$@(7s1v6'(01+,%YALE"2000 !_T
m(&EW5&(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&6k"K75&IE+@1 ["+4,:&
6TX 0.80
2000 0.14
4000 0.04
6000 0.02
IE+@F& 1.00
Fu>D*F@?S+ASN+,%g(@)S5~PTNZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1363LB5(6>/p01h$?C0T:!0$(01'LE01+,%z0{T>/p,0
IE+@F_5"+4,:&b>BE4O5z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
64/130
64|F&A1"?5&! 2[(( h) /!h) @1] (( h)/!2h) @1 = "
2000 !2(28) 0.48 =
2000 ! 0.0784 - 0.48 =
" = 0.4016 ! 2000
1267.438 = 2000 ! 0.63371918 =
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
65/130
0.06 = 0.10 !0.60 z0{#$@(74T50000>$)p01^'@V*ZN40000 U10000TN0.18 = 0.60 !0.30 z0{#$@(74T30000>$)p01^'@V*ZN10000 U20000TN0.09 = 0.30 !0.30 z0{#$@(74T40000>$)p01^'@V*ZN20000 U20000TN0.03 = 0.10 !0.30 z0{#$@(74T60000>$)p01^'@V*ZN40000 U20000TN0.06 = 0.60 !0.10 z0{#$@(74T50000>$)p01^'@V*ZN10000 U40000TN0.03 = 0.30 !0.10 z0{#$@(74T60000>$)p01^'@V*ZN20000 U40000TN0.01 = 0.10 !0.10 z0{#$@(74T80000>$)p01^'@V*ZN40000 U40000TN!" $Wu>% d[@6 g=r" FE[@]1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
66/130
:!0$(01!0$@(7s1v6'(01
6k"K75&IE+@F_5"+4,:&b>BE45&(16) {J![0*D6k"K75&IE+@1 ["+4,:&
6TX 0.80
10000 0.09
20000 0.063
30000 0.018
40000 0.0195
50000 0.006
60000 0.003
80000 0.0005
IE+@F& 1.00
:m?7F;',/]1IP$@(7s1-$)7d[@6>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01d*T0.006 = 50000 ZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74 --
50000 2T37!"M'[6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74 -50000 d%YC6TNZT$)6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74=
0.9965 = 0.80 + 0.90 + 0.063 + 0.018 + 0.0195 + 0.006 =
50000 d%36X6>$)p01^'@V*MN#$@(74-20.0035 = 0.0005 + 0.003 =
:!0$(01'LE01+,%z0{TZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1-$)75(6>/p01h$?C0T
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
67/130
IE+@F_5"+4,:&b>BE4O5z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
68/130
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
69/130
((M)c!M)V*=
0.25 =
2(((v)/!v) @1) ((v)/!2v) @1) =v"\
2(0.25) 0.35 =
0.0625 0.35 =
0.536190264 = 0.2875 =v\"
'!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
70/130
10000 !2.56 - 3.40 =
10000 ! 0.84 =
9165.151 = 10000 ! 0.916515139 = "
v ! ! =
40000 = ! 16000 ! 0.25 =
a371Ta37T#$]11Q_!"!_T>/p,0Fu>D]1I137'01 23%Y@BMm?7
v ! [v2"!
2) + (
2" ! )] = :"
1 ![(0.5361902642!
216000) +
2(916.151 !0.25)] =
( 73600000 + 21000000 ) =
9726.253 = 946000000 = h "
."M?i(*aO$)R)>R2$7d*$W(@?S>?i(BTNa>*Yt!"d[0T FC;$)01 FC6>/0$; >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 363LB lDA6 g=r" >/p,0:$WE*e363L(0&>RNF?J6>CBq>:3p()B
The normal !D?J/01 v6'(01 :13p(Gr; l6>C(01 -1.approximation
The chebyshev ?\J?\B K6> :13p(Gr; l6>C(01 -2.method
3- #$"'62 80 K6> :13p(Gr; l6>C(01 The Allen-Duvalmethod.
4- F?D?J/01 &'C01 F012 K6> :13p(Gr;l6>C(01The norm al power
method .5- Iv6'BFC6>:13p(Gr;l6>C(01The student T distribution.6- O'w24F,),)(*FC6>:13p(Gr;l6>C(01Edgeworth series.7- d6>RTM')='wFC6>:13p(Gr;l6>C(01.8- M'(E M$*';FC6>:13p(Gr;l6>C(01.9- M'G>?;#O$tFC6>:13p(Gr;l6>C(01.
10- a$t$L]1FC6>:13p(Gr;l6>C(01Simulation.11- 3@(DB !(01 &>Rn1 F?u$6>01 q>/01 xD; :13p(Gr; l6>C(01
Y*$[(01I$?@,%+,%.y1>ws FC$j01 F%>)0$; X?@(B a363w #$?wN O'WT F?01 I$JG$L01 >"1'B v*T?); ; F;$([; I$=$?J01 d6>p(0 F,$W01 aO3C01 +04 F"$us$; F?;$)L01 I$?,@D01
G1 TN Y[ 363LB MT2) >$)p01 ^'@V] 0$@(7s1 v6'(01 +04 #'b'01 d[@6
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
71/130
.d6$J(01TG'(]1F?*',D@;z0{T(v6'(01
!0$@(7s1 v6'(,0 +0Tn1 FD;On1 :TXD01 +04Hon-Shiang lau ()Yb'B 3ST:MNJ~NTa371Ta37'0>$)p01^'@V]
! = G'(]12
!v"2+ "2! = h"2d6$J(01Tv6'(,0 +0Tn1 FD;On1 :TXD01 +04 Thomas A. Aiuppa :Yb'B 3ST
:MNJ~NTI137Ta3D0>$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1
v ! ( ! v) = v :6k"K75&IE+@19E41v!(2 !v
2"+ 2"! =vh
2" :6k"K75&IE+@1R>"Ce0
.6#7O5;s6?F&G&*,E5&(*Yva?Jt 23% >"1'B F0$7 !" >/p01 h$?S !" M$(C;$)01 M$(02$D]1 3?jBTd* >tn TN >tn1 +,% 2$L0 Fu>D* a37T # =$t y1'G >/p,0 Fu>D]1 I137'01
.a>?i(*TNF(;$~2$7Ytd%FVB$E01aO$)p01F@?S=$ty1'GTFE)01#.R2$721'L0123D;Fb$p01I$=$?J01 :13p(G4F?j?tF?0$(01F,*n1 #.Rd* fu'=T>/p01 h$?S !" >/p,0 Fu>D]1 I137'01 d* >?Jt 23% >"1'B Y !" >$)p01 5?ST
.>$)p01^'@V*d6$JBTG'(*-$)L;8(b$p018(02$D]1F/G1';
:(9) ["\1F@?C0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01T 21'L01 23D0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 d% M$?; !,6 $@?"
:F?Ej01I$7',01v?;YL]aO$)p01
m(&EW5&(*Y["+4,:& '!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
72/130
:AW5&d6$JBT >$)p01 ^'@V* G'(* -$)7 d* 3;." >/p01 h$?S d[@6 +(7F@?S v6'BT 21'L01 23% v6'B d6$JBT G'(* !" 8(012 $@_T >$)p01 ^'@V*
:!0$(01'LE01+,%5W;$)75(6TaO$)p01
m(&EW5&(*Yb>BEeR>"Ce09E41"K,(20) {J![0*Dm(&EW5&(*Y
v["+4,:&
v)/)v)/!v) v)/! 2v)
6TX 0.80 >jb >jb
1 0.20 0.20 0.20
IE+@F& 1.00 0.20 0.20
(M)c ! = 21'L0123%G'(*0.20 =
2((v)/!v) @1- (v)/ ! 2v) @1=v
2"21'L0123%d6$JB
2(0.2) - 0.20 =
16 = 0.04 20 = v2"
'!"K75&;+BEeR>"Ce09E41"KW5(21) {J![0*D'!"K75&;+$)p01^'@V*G'(*
g?Ew 400 = 2000 ! 0.20 = \2
!v
2"
+ 2"
!
=h
2"
a371Ta37'0>$)p01^'@V*d6$JB22000 !0.16 +>jb! 0.20 =
640000 = 4000000 ! 0.16 +>jb=h2"\
= I137Ta3D0>$)p01^'@V*G'(*MNm?7T(*Y ! '*,&0 '*,E56k"K75& IE+@1 9E41
G&*,E5&90000 = 225 ! 400 =
= I137'01a3D0>$)p01^'@V*d6$JB$}6NTG&*,E5&(*Y ! '*,&0'*,E56k"K75&IE+@1R>"Ce
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
73/130
144000000 = 225 ! 640000 =
2000 = \01F@?SZT$)B a37TY[0>/p,0Fu>D*F@?S+ASNMNm?7T\01F@?STNa37T22 23D0>/p,0Fu>D*F@?S+ASN:Mr"
450000 = 225 ! 2000 =
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
74/130
= '*,&0'*,E5( P4$:&A1"?1)6#75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
75/130
*>*@5&G&*,E5&(*Y
{>*H5&G&*,E5&(*Y23%OQwZT$)BOQV01LBF@?C01Mr"a371Ta37T'_563C01I137'0123%MNm?7T
v ZT$)BZN363V01I137'01
h$?S -',GN ?)JB !" I$S.D01 eQ_ :13p(G4 F?@_N !0$(01 #$]1 #.R d* f}(6T.>/p01
:(10) ["\1
>" YtT g?Ew 50000 >" Yt I$6'(L* F@?S .~$@(* $%>" 144 $W630 !J*T Ft>!0$@(7s1 v6'(01T 21'L01 23D0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 !,6 $@?"TUK6>L01 >/p0 >D*
. '=Y[0aO$)p01F@?C0
(*?5_5"+4,:&b>BE45&m(&EW5&
;+$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 363LB :]50%& ;H>6#5&`1>L=s1) h" U(a371T a37'0 >$)p01 ^'@V* G'(*) -$)7 !" g*13p(G4T
^'@V* G'(*) M -$)7 5(6 $WE*T U(a371T a37'0 >$)p01 ^'@V] ZO$?D]1
d* M 0 >$)p01 ^'@V] ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1) U(I137'01 d* M 0 aO$)p01:!0$(01'LE01+,%z0{TI137'01
G'(]1 -$)7 (6 gE*T a371T a37'0 >$)p01 ^'@V] !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 363LB -1
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
76/130
.ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1T
$@tM$tT8#$*vw1O) ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1TG'(]1Tv6'(011Q_363LB$E0KJG3ST:!,6
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
77/130
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
78/130
0.0625 - 0.35 =
0.53619024 = 0.2875 = v"
0.2875 = v2"
:'*,&0'*,E5'!"K75&;+"Ce09E41"K,-2'!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
79/130
v ! =576000 = 144 ! 4000 =
v!h2" =
13622400000 = 144 ! 94600000 =
116715.038 =
(*Y ]^J- ! '*,&E5& '*,EO5'!"K$ ]^J- = 6#7O5;s6?1 ;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
80/130
'*>*@5&G&*,E5&(*Y= [6
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
81/130
9E4F&
2.416 = =
z!"
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
82/130
a5"\5&A^T5&]OYR>!"+e
+04 F"$us$; FDS'(]1 /p01 F@?S S'(B) -1v* aO$JD01 eQ_ !" z6NO fuT .(FV?(= Yt KCLB IP$@(74
.F,*N>t{Y_ .(>/p01T >$)p,0 !0$@(7s1 v6'(01 8; FS.% 3w'B P) -2
1{$]TaO$JD01eQ_+,%K"1'B3- F*$W01 F?$A7s1 I1T2n1 d* ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 >J(D6
gw'6 $*$_ 12$C(=1 $E_ MN P4 >/p01 h$?S !" F*3p()]12$C(=P11Q_>t{1.g?04.
4- F?$A74 a129t `.(Rs1 Y*$D* :13p(G4 I1X?@* >t{1g;$)L0Fj,(p]1q>/01363LBv*>/p01h$?C0.
5- !0$@(7s1v6'(,0ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1363LBF?@_N>t{1.6- F@?S +,% >/p,0 Fu>D]1 I137'01 23% a2$6 >?~9B '_ $*
>/p01.7- U0.75 ZT$)6a371Ta37';o$p01>/p01 F@?SMN@,%1{4
F@?S +,% a37T 25 +04 I137'01 23% a2$6 >?~9B '_ $*>/p01.
8- @,%1{r"K6>L01>/p0>D*g?Ew1000000 g(@?SvEA*`1>L=s1T Ug?Ew 80000 >$)p01 ^'@V* G'(* MN>/p01F@?Sl)71U20000>$)p01^'@V]ZO$?D]1.
9- 40000 >" Yt F@?S .~$@(* $%>" 60 $W630 !t$(Et Ft>#.R >tn1+,% K6>7 21'7 F~.0 >D* >" Yt Ug?Ew^T>j,0F6'E)01>$)p01^'@V]ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1TUFE)01F6'E)01 >$)p01 ^'@V* G'(*T Ug?Ew 7000 $W,tFt>\01 I21ON 1{4T U>/p01 F@?C0 >63CB '_ $* U25000G'(*:d*.t+,%z0{>?~9B'_$@">R$%>"90 c$(("1F@?SU>$)p01^'@V]ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1TU>$)p01^'@V*>/p01.
10- 23%A=q.4Ft>\01IO>S1{4K;$)01#1H)01!"y'u !" z0{ >?~9B '_ $@" UI$D?J]1 F@?S $jp=P ^T>j01U>$)p01 ^'@V* G'(* d* Yt +,% FC;$)01 I$=$?J01
>/p01F@?SU>$)p01^'@V]ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1.11- Yt F@?S aO$?G 40 $W630 -$t>01 YCE0 M$@6s1 Ft>
+,% 21'7 FD;On Fu>D* aO$?G Yt Ug?Ew 60000 $WE*aO$?),0F6'E)01>$)p01^'@V*G'(*UFE)01#.R>tn1F6'E)01 >$)p01 ^'@V] ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 Ug?Ew 1000-',/]1 I1O$?)01 23D0 >63CB '_ $* Ug?Ew 2000 aO$?),0g(@?Sd*%75O13C@;>/p01F@?Sx?jp(0
12- aO$?G 20 v?; Ft>\01 IO>S 1{4 K;$)01 #1H)01!"U>$)p01^'@V*G'(*d*YtF@?S+,%z0{>?~9B'_$@">/p01F@?SU>$)p01^'@V]ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1
13- 37N y1> g?,% >% Ug01'*N O$@(G1 36>6 pg?Ew 100000 g(@?S #Tn1 UaX_$V01 ;.@,0 8DEA*!/D6 8DEA]1 .t MN @,% 1{r" g?Ew 110000 !=$01T>$)p01IP$7FG1O3;g=NT$6'EG%14 eO3SO$@(G13$%+,% $E,A7 $@W$\=4 QE* 8DEA]1 .t $W0 >DB !(01>$)p01^'@V]8?0$(018?0$@(7s18D6'(01.
m(&EW5&(*Y ["+4,:& '!"K75&;+
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
83/130
6TX 0.30
6TX 0.40
1 0.40 20000 0.30
2 0.25 40000 0.20
3 0.05 60000 0.10
1{$]TY}"N8DEA]1ZNUO$/Rn1aO124!"1>?JRz(jA;14- ,JB Fj?[* aO$?G $W630 !7$?)01 YCE,0 3@L01 Ft>
!0$@(7s1v6'(01d%M$?;!,6$@?"Tg?Ew200000 $W(@?Sa371'01aO$)p01F@?C0!0$@(7s1v6'(01T21'L0123D0.
m(&EW5&(*Y ["+4,:& '!"K75&;+$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01363LB.
10000 d% YC6PF6'E)01 >$)p01^'@V*MN #$@(74 -$)7 -2
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
84/130
.g?Ew3- 10000 d% 36X6 F6'E)01 >$)p01 ^'@V* MN #$@(74 -$)7
g?Ew.4- 15000 ZT$)6 F6'E)01 >$)p01 ^'@V* MN #$@(74 -$)7
g?Ew.
5->/p01h$?S.6- '_ $@" UI$jb1']1 jE; d6>R 8u>D* Ft>\01 L(("1 1{4
ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1 U>$)p01 ^'@V* G'(* :+,% z0{ >?~9B
>/p01F@?STU>$)p01^'@V].16->$)p01^'@V]!0$@(7s1v6'(01d%M$?;!,6$@?"
!7$?)01YCE,0y$?}01Ft>I1O$?)0F6'E)01:
IE+@16k"K75&
>jb 500 1000 5000 10000 25000 50000IE+@F&
["+4,:& 0.80 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.007 0.002 0.001 1.00.:2$C01:$D01!"aO$)p0Ft>\01>D(BMN#$@(74'_$*-1
$W?Ew5000 $W%'@V*>$)p0Ft>\01>D(BMN#$@(74'_$*T-2.YSn1+,%
>$)p01 ^'@V] FDS'(]1 F@?C01) >$)p01 ^'@V* G'(* '_ $*T -3(F6'E)01
F@?C0 >63CB'_$* g?Ew 2159 ,J* '_ZO$?D]1 `1>L=s1M$t 1{4 -4.>/p01
G'(] >63CB '_ $@" 0.5 vS'(]1 21'L01 O1>[B #3D* M$t 1{4 -5.a371'01aO$)p01
.F,@(L*aO$)R+ASN237-6
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
85/130
bc&65&A^T5&6#75&'!&()6}
.>/p01aO1246>DB.>/p01aO124Y71>*
v@(V@,0 ^T>\@,0 a>G0 2>j,0>/p01aO124F?@_N>/p01aO124`13_N.>/p01aO124q>.>/p01aO124GN.
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
86/130
bc&65&A^T5&6#75&'!&()6}
:6#75&'!&()f>6?e
6?4>_45&!"#$%&*>*W45_+O?5&EO9%&):$W=9;>/p01aO124`>DB;MD&EF0-"M4MD&EFAk"9E5&yK`-!"/p01aO124F?,@%$W;>@B!(01Y71>]1TNI1'/p01d*F%'@V*$E_:I06|F&"M56?4>_45&!"#$%&*>*We:]50%&;O,61[&
FG1O3;(O$/Rn1aO124!"FAAp(]1I$WV01&374TN)>/p01>63*:'C6m?7`3W;Fj,(p]1$(=s1Y71>*363LB+04F"$us$;^T>\]1Q?jEBT5?@ABY71>*v?@w+(7O$/Rn1eQ_I$JJ)*363LBTY71>]1eQ_d*F,7>*Y[0F*.]1O$/Rn1363LB
a>JR+,%y$E;Y?03011Q_213%45(6T^T>\]1$W0>D(6!(01O$/R0Y?02213%4d[@6$W630='[BTa>("QE*$W$\=#T1XB!(01T#$V]1j=!"F,*$D01TF,~$@]1I$t>\01
F=$D(GP1$}6Nd[@6TU$W(Ww1']Y$G'01Y}"NT$WB$JJ)*T$W%1'=NT>$)p01d%a>JR$_O3AB!(01K$~'01#.Rd*T$W;F?Ej01:$)Sn1#.Rd*8*9(01I$t>a>Jp;
.F,~$@*I$%T>\*!/iBT;Oc"J!"#$-:2YE`]5)I06|F&"M56?4>_45&!"#$%&{KHNe06\]1gw1'B!(01O$/Rn1363LBlC%
$W~T37F0$7!"FDS'(]1aO$)p015V7T2$L01T37#$@(74:$@_T>/p01Z>AE%+,%lB>(6!(01O$/Rn1y$/%4v*$W(?@_Nl)7O$/Rn1l?B>B5(6z0{+,%y$E;T
1{4Ft>\01a>JRTI$=$?;+,%12$@(%1O$/Rn1h$?S5(6TFb$RF?@_NF~O$t$WCCLBa>JRTF,~$@]1I$t>\01a>JR+,%12$@(%1TNF,6'a>("QE*#$V]1j=!"Y@DB=$t
.a363wFt>\01=$t1{4FAAp(]1a>Jp01lB$[*T8*9(01I$t>a>$J]1>$)p01FDS'(]1>$)p01>63CB3E%O$J(%P1!"QRH6MNlV6T
Y*) a>$J]1>?>$)p01M'[B3SIP$L01xD;!"g=na>$J]1>?>$)p01TlV6$@tUa>$J]1>$)p01d*>JtN(IP'@D01Tc$;On13C"TY@D01d%S'(01>$)R
.YJC()]1!"3L(G$W=n>$)p01eQ_>63CB3E%5p}(01IP3D*+%1>BMN:6#75&;MD&EF;C9"NF&6#5&!":13p(Gr;z0{TFE[@*Fj,[BYS9;^T>\]1$W0>D(6!(01O$/Rn1FWw1'*UaO$)p01!" [L(01U$?XwTN$?,t>/p01lEVB:!_T>/p01FWw1'*q>d*>tN
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
87/130
.Y@L(01UY6'L(01Uv?@V(01Uv6'(01
:'!"47F&;H>6#5&n63*:'C6$W;>/p01 FWw1'*5(?G!(01q>/01TNFC6>/01O$?(R15(6MN3D;
363L(;:'C6g=r"8*9(01FC6>O$?(R1>/p01>63*O>S1{r"UFC6>/01eQ_Q?jE(;>/p01g?,D"aO$)p01!"5[L(01O>S1{4TUO$DGn1TT>\01T$W6308*9(015(?G!(01Ft>\013L01TaO$)p01O1>[BIP3D*x?jp(0$_{$pB15(?G!(01I1y1>ws1TY$G'01363LB
.$W~T37F0$7!"$W(@?Sd*'nTNF&;H>6#5&{\]1TN2>j01$W(V?(=M'[B!(01O$/R0FJ)E0$;z0{T) FE[@*Fj,[BYS9;$W?,%FJB>(]1>$)p01
5puK6>7:Y*F~O$t$WCCLB+,%lB>(63S!(01O$/Rn1xD;$E_TU($@12aO$)R->)BT37UF?7$?GF6>SO$*2TN(+EJ*d*>tNTN)>?Jtq3E"O$*2+04Z2H6
I1$->)B+04Z2H6$@*!$?@?tvEA*!"O$Vj=1T37UF6T'=F/L]!%$D4O$/Rn1xD;KCLB+,%lB>(63ST.M3*a3%+,%>@6>W=!"F*$Ga2$*->)BUF*$GUI1O$?G2$7UI1>_'V]1v?J0YL*+,%'/)01:Y*a2T3L*>$)R&>RNM$?7N!"
.#$@D01d*a2T3L*F%'@V*TNY*$D0Y@%F;$b42$7^$J4x?jpB+04Z2HBK,SF0$7!"g,DV6O$/Rn1eQW0p\01>DBT$=$?7NT$WD*Y*$D(01:3%TFE?D*F/\=NTNIP$V*>B+04z0{Z2H6$=$?79"U2>j01
g=r">/p,0F@?[L01aO12s1Y!"TUgB$%T>\*aO124-',GN>?iB+04z0{Z2H6&>RN$@tU>JtNF?0$Dj;Y*n1Z2$A(SP1-',Gn$;>/p,0Fu>D]1y$?n1v*Y*$D(01d[@6z0{TO$p0$;$)p01d%aO120F,*$taO'bvuT#.Rd*d*e2'w';TY;^T>\]1F?L;>;K,D(6$@?"#$D">?~9B$W0M'[6>/p01aO124Mr"Y@N
.g*3%'_f;>01+04`3WB!(01 I$@E@,0FJ)E0$;>/p01aO124d*`3W01M$t1{4TaO124Mr"$WCCLB!(01c$;On1a2$6!0$(0$;T$W0>D(B!(01>$)p01O13C*x?jpBf;>01+04`3WBP!(01&>Rn1I$@E]1F0$7!"z0{Tc$VE;T$}6N:3p()B>/p01UF?,L]1F?*'[L01aO12s1UF?@?,D(013_$D]1Uf;>01+04`3WBP!(01I$?j\()]1$WE*T
Y@D,0I$@E]1eQW0Fb>j01F7$B4'_F0$L01eQ_!">/p01aO124d*`3W01M'[6T.3t9(01:3%Fj,[B x?jpB+04F"$us$;$W0M$*n1TF6$@L01>?"'B#.Rd*F?0$%ay$j[;
F?@(7!ED61Q_Mr"eQp(6O1>SYt!"M$)=s$;?LBO$/Rn1Mn1>=T-',Gn1O$(p=MNY}"n1d@"O$/Rn1v*Y*$D(=MNT3;P$E=N$]$T$WD*Y*$D(01
O$?(R1+04Z2H6$@*!1'\%Y[\;-',Gn1O$?(R1d*P3;$WBO12s3?>01T5?,)01$E=r">/p01aO12s5?,)01-',Gn1O$?(R1#.Rd*Ta>?tIP$7!"$p01-',Gn1
.Fj,[BYS9;/p01>63*I$b$A(R1d*M'[6Td6Q01#$@D01Y?_9Ba2$%4UAutomatic Sprinklers F?$C,(01K6>L01I$$O
#.Rd*5((G!(01>$)p01FWw1']F*.01F?0$]12O1']1>?;3BU(Y@%F;$bsM'u>D(6Y@LBT>/p0$;$j(7P1#.Rd*TN8*9(01Ft>Y*>R`>/0O$/Rn1eQ_Y6'LB
7/25/2019 Risk_Mana..
88/130
.gV$(=
yl%Y6'LB#.Rd*>/p01aO124Y$GT5_Nd*Insurance 8*9(01>J(D6TF,?G'ty1'G$*$_1OT2:$D01To$p018*9(01lD,6T>R >+04>$)p01Y6'@B
F?G$?)01TNF?%$@(wP1F?7$E,0FJ)E0$;TN!*'C012$A(S.0FJ)E0$;TN>/p01aO12sFb$p018*9(01I$t>&30F,AL]1$)Sn1i,;1986 :$%!"g=N5,D=MN!j[6T
0$J*5?Si,;$W?,%d*H*y$?Nd%z0{TOPT2M'?,;471 F?[6>*n1a3L(]1I$6P'01!".'*M'?,*2 I$t>\01eQW;Y@D6TOPT2M'?,6>B1.3 $WE?*9B
&
