Upload
khalil-benz
View
217
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
1/68
• !"# $%& –•
• !"#$" %•&'" %(&)*+ !"#, %#-
•!" $%&' $(
• ! "#$% &'()! *+,- .!/0! "•1!2+3#
•:• !"#$% &''()*+ !"#$ ,•-.)/+ !"#$
•:•! #$%&
•:• !"#$% &&'(
• !"#$% :• !"# $%
•:
• !"# $%&'( $)*(!:18 /06 /2013
• !" #$%&" #$'( )"*:
• / • !)• !"#-• !"# $%&! •'#!((•
• / • !"#)• !"•-• !"# $%&! •'#!((•
• / • !)• !"•-• !"# $%&! •'#!((••
•!" •#$!"2012 /2013
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
2/68
• É!"æ •#$% &'( )# *Ñ +,-Ç •..
/ 0 )1234 56Å527 )#8Ã •#7Ã 4 9#:. ;.Ç Ê(
?Å @AÇBCDÇ E,:.Ç Ç>/ ÉF ì+/Ç äà :
5'# 57GHæ IÇ ÊÇB#J +,K ¡íLJ ÑB6æ M#N Á'A.
IÇ O$PQ R'.S.Ç 97Ã OCTUæ '6>.Ç R6VÑ ¡ä2-Ç Wæ RXYÇ Á$%.
Çá$6æ ÍP" É'-Ç äà Z,# í>.IÇ 5(PQ [3[:.Ç *à ¡.
ÏB,\#. O'# []^ÑÃ E_Ã ;.Ç É+,4Ç:Ç̀BaÃæ `BaÃ
)G7Òæ )N+JÃ ¡É'-Ç )
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
3/68
• ÝÇ Å ä!"#$Ç %&'æ ($Ç %•)* ã+,-à äà Š¡./•!0 Å %1æ í2$Ç +34Ç Ç25 +#6 7#8 ЕÇ
!"#$%&!'(93" ¡:;&,$Ç .-!3&!?@6 !A9• !@&BC %DE• Fæ G=E$Ç Ç25 HBC ÝÇIJÇ %EK í2$Ç
H8@• %LM6 N !@•+A O$26.
- P•2$Ç É2-!QRÇ Å •+,-æ (I :&S!3/K!@Aæ ÉT2Ç U25 ÉÁÇ,$ VW!Kæà PA X8• XY Á)< XD8/6 Ç9BLM .
Ñ9@$Ç G=E$Ç Ç25 ì• Z[ áÇ\8$!6 9$æ ]^Iæ +C!Q PA %T Å _$!`Ç ($!6 .
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
4/68
•:
áæ•Ç ÑÃ ÊÇÑ!"# ä$%& '(Ç)*+Ç ,-.Ç /01 23#45Ç'#æ67Ç)8Ç Ï9*:;Ç Ç Ç?@ Ý'A( =4B í
C(Ï9*:;Ç ÊÇ6DE+Ç F&
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
5/68
•!" $%&
äÇ•Ç •Ç
ÁÇ!"Ç
III
#$%Ç IV
&'()Ç V
Ê*+,-.Ç •01*2 VI
áæÇ3Ç •01*2 VIII
á*$45Ç •01*2 VIII
678)Ç •01*2 IX
•9*: •9;9 Ã-Ï
áæÇ "#$Ç:%& ÉÏ'()Çæ É*+,)Ç "-Ç•Çæ áæ*./Ç Ñ%0Ã
02
áæ5Ç ?@)Ç:Ç #ABÇ •
áæ5Ç K(L)Ç:C:Ç,HÃæ IæJ@Ç #ABÇ ã,=9 03
Mæà :IæJ@Ç #ABÇ ã,=9 03 *
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
6/68
•áæÇ !"#Ç 16
•Ç !"Ç:í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã ÊÇ#012 #3Ã
$%&' 18
áæÇ ()*+Ç:•#,-Ç •.ÇÑÏ ÊÇæÏÃæ •/012 19
áæÇ 345+Ç:ã$678+Ç 9&:+Ç 19
;, 20
;,Ñ,C.Ã áæD*#ÇE4F1KÇLGÇ H Ï,!7IJÇ. 21
Jæà :Ñ=5BÊÇ$K,C#Ç•%5":#ÇáÉD"#Ç)1973-2009.( 21
,%>,?:á íÑ,M7#Ç äÇL%+Ç 1,:F E4F áæD*#Ç Ñ,C.à Ñ=5B 1?à ÉD"#Ç1986-2010: 23
,
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
7/68
• !""#$%&
•Ç äÇ!"Ç Ç $%Ñáæ&'
20 Ñ•!"#ÊÇÑÏ$%&Ç"'(&Ç)+,Ç-.Ç)1970-1985( )2-1( 21 Ñ•!"#ÊÇÑÏ$%&Ç"'(&Ç/+,Ç-.Ç)1986-2000( )2-2(
21 Ñ•+01áæ23&Çí+,Ç-.Ç)2000-2009( )2-3(
22 É2'&Ç á45 /+,Ç-.Ç ÊÇÑÏ$%&Ç Ñ•1986-2009 )2-4(
23 Ñ•ÊÇÏÑÇ•&Ç/+,Ç-.ÇÉ2'&Ç á451986-2009 )2-5(
24 Ñ•íÑ$67&Ç äÇ-"8Ç 9":ÑÉ2'&Ç á45 /+,Ç-.Ç1986-2009 )2-6(
25 ;$(&Ç Ñ•
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
8/68
• !"#$
•Ç äÇ•Ç !"Ñ#$%&•Ç
46 • Çæ !"Ç Ñ#$%&Ç Ñ'() *+',1970-2010 1
47 É-./Ç á01 /æ-2/Ç ,#23Ç Ñ'() *+',1970-2009 2
48 É-./Ç á01 4.5/Ç Ñ#$%Ã 678 %#%'3Ç ËÇ9:&Ç ;
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
9/68
•
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
10/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
11/68
•
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
12/68
•
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
13/68
• !":
• •!"# !$%&'!()
$* '++,
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
14/68
•!"#:
•!•"#$•%&'()•$*+!,-.
•/!01+! 3%4$56!7
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
15/68
•
•
•
• Ç ÊÇÑ!"#$Ç %& '()* +,$Ã -Ñ./ ÊÇ012 345Ç ä6,$Ç 78 É09:Ç Ï!,;$Ç +#?
ì69à @/ 78 ABAC$Ç Ê=!D#$Çæ ¡@/ 78 A/!$!EF#$Ç ÉÑ!G$Çæ 5!;$Ç ÊÇÒÇ6#?+`L äÅ Þ!C$Ç N.P ;ARX á!TÇ-Ï>#?ÊÇÐ nà ãà #o
;ARXÇA/ÇæÏÒÇ-Ï>#?H< ¡ABABæ`Ñ!"2 %& ,AJ& ÇÑp Y$ äL Þ!C$Ç N.' 3qÑ#$Ç Ñ!"#$Ç äà á!,$Ç 7Fr Y
@E8 A*6;$Ç 9æ áæK$Ç 78 0GF$ Ê?æ6sÇ Ú"?.
æEB +`L ÇÐÅ1948 -=!$Ç @A< +$!i h$ÇVLÃ aÅ mt#E5Ç VLÃ 78 AF-68:Ç ÉKD#5Ç Ê
áæWR$Ç e?Ç!8 7& QDR$Çæ Ñl`:Ç á!i ",` +G8 K? 7-ÏÑ!#C5Ç"Ï!B:Ç ^P.$Ç"u 78æÇ=ãJ#P,"E5*
äH< ¡A*6;$ÇÇ=Ñ>#`EB v6;$Ç1973Þ!B $Ï;8 78 0w K?áæWR$ÇaÅ 7-W]5Ç Þ!B 78 (,#E8 35;$Ç
$Ç Þ!Bt#E5Çæ ;xR$Ç ÝÇ6X:Ç N.P SPÃ A*6;$Ç áæK$Ç MGy QAT ¡m;xR .
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
16/68
•
•
•æÇ!"ÑÇ#$#%Ï#&'(Ý)*" +!,à -. /01Ç 23#*#"•Ê•Ï•!"#$%Ç"• 401Ç 5!,Ãæ
67 /8#89Ç ß):ÇÇ;Ê#%Ï#&'(.
01Ç =>)*Ç áæ2Ç ?@ )ABÇ CD#EÇ F )3ÇGEÇ ÊÒ)æÇ0H'AÊ#>IJ F =>K>HLÇ áæ2Ç M@
#N*@ O#P" #N1Q ¡=(#H /R#*Ç ÏÇ2@SÇæ Ì#'DSÇæÇT0"Á#1 FÇÊ#%Ï#&'(CU#D ÏÑV@ WHX 2I'*" =>0D
#$#X#T ÖVN1Çæ =%VI1'Ç #NA >01" F 623ÇVX áYA ?@¡=>*Uæ 0(V'ZÇ;Ï#&'(=J). WHX [\VÇ
RÇ 401H =%)*]Ç Ê#!HT'Ç=0H'^ Ê#@2& =U)X _H*` #@ =>aÑ#LÇ b@ÇV*# Y,Ã =!") .
!"%•'()Ç:
c =(YX ß#1d äà 5e'% ¡6)JÐ f!8 #gÊÇÑV"áæh!Ç Ñ#*8Ã[\VÇ Ï#&'(;Çæ?X #iVIe@ F j+!D #1H*k
/H% #IJ j+!Ç Ç7 =>#QlSÇ =m#>, ?Qn _1@æ ¡=(Y*Ç 6d ÊÇopq"æ ÊYX#0" rH'^:
•*+, $-Ã ./Ï•Ç 012 áæ$3%Ç Ñ•#4Ã Ñ. %Ç¿$5Ç67
s#'#J /d #QlSÇ 6d ?X =#aSÇ =æ#: æ:
-¿áæh!Ç Ñ#*89 ÉÏ2:Ç =>]>3)Ç b@ÇV*Ç /d #@
-¿áæh!Ç o*]" C>#8Ã æ Þ)\ /d #@
-Ç WHX áæh!Ç Ñ#*8à ou" )pà #@¿)3ÇGEÇ Ï#&'(
Ê•"8$9%Ç:
/d U)0Ç t* MUæ #1>HX Ö)0% j+!Ç Çd =E#*@ äÅ:
-c =(YX 2aV"áæh!Ç )*8æ=>8#>8V>EÇ b@ÇV*ÇÑÇ)T'8;Ç Ý)*" ; áæh!Ç Ñ#*8Ã b*kÞÇV89Ç F
=>æh!Ç=>R#*Ǻ
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
17/68
•
•
-• !"#$áæ%&'Çæ#'Ç ()!'ÇÚ*+$Ñ,Ç !- .*) */01#2 3'Ç 4'*5Ç !6Ç#-'Ç á) 78 9:;<
4=>?'Ç 4@= (2#A 78 4B+>'Ç áæ!'Ç 78 */; + L Ç'- * 5 4 æÇG? K 0 ÇÑÇ? J * Ï 2* ÊÇ'! æáÇ5 ? K ! 8 ¡
1M ! æËà í.! 8 à æà Ò8 Hà G- * ÑÇ'> + L à æÇ? J * Ï 2* ÊÇ'! æáÇ5 ? K ! 8 $N O0 P@ÊÇ;Q?5Ç
2Ï*J?,ÇHÇDC Ç60 (R8:¡8*-'Ç 4SÇC45Ç ¡íÑ*T?'Ç äÇC45Ç ¡U@VÇ W$*>'ÇGÇÑ!'Ç XY#8 U/ 3'Ç.
Ú••Ç Ñ!"Ç ÊÇÑ#$%:
ZÅ Ú#Y#5Ç Ñ*4?)Ç È*&GÃ X"0$:
-2Ï*J?,Ç Ê*-'Ç Ñ*:Å Hæ [J\?'Ç Ñ*:Å H ÌÑ!>2 ]Sà 4'æ!'Ǻ
-J\^ &?5Ç È*&G_Ç 78 !2!-'Ç ]' í`'Çæ !K-5Ç áæ%&'Ç a* H bM&'Ç ZÅ á#)!'Ç H 4
3'Ç ä#=c5Çæ 0/#DÇ]=Edº
-e@I'Çæ È*fg* hE->$ ]$*&@K$ äÃæ ¡Ú*BK'Ç Ç`/ 78 ]4>f *8 P@ ]@i !=?-2 9:#'Ç Ï*J?,Ç äÃ
ì0)_Ç 2Ï*J?,Ç Ê**BK'Ç j@?k P@.
&'ÇÑ(Ç ÝÇ()Ã*!)Ã æ:
ZÅ GÇÑ!'Ç Ý!l:
-áæ%&'Ç Ñ*-Gà Ö*+mÇ æà Ú*+$Ñ* í06ÇCDÇ 9:#'Ç Ï*J?,Ç L0$ 3'Ç -'Ç P@ Ý##'Ǻ
-*>4/Ñ 9:#'Ç Ï*J?,Ç 78 (-f !4næ íÑ!J$ (E4o í06ÇCDÇ Ï*J?,Ç Ø*&$ÑÇ @Ep8 P@ Ý##'Ç
%&'Ç Þ#I'Ç H Ë!d 3'Ç 4G*4I'Çæ 2Ï*J?,Ç Ýæ0q@'45*-'Ç 4'æ.
78 -*S Ur1 Ú#Y#5Ç 4sà *8à :
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
18/68
•
•
-•æ ÉÑ!Ç "#$æ%&$Ç áæ$Ç ã•'()Ç Ê*+Ã ,$Ç "#-•-.Ç •/•01$Ç 2Ã 345 Á60$Ç 748/ 9:&$Ç ä6;
"
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
19/68
•
•
Ê•!"#Ç:
Ñ•Ç Ò!Å " #$%&' (Ç Ê)*+,Ç äÅ-./0Ç 12 ì• 34*56Ç 7&' 89 :*2 " ;& 3?Ç
@&AB$4 C,$D&' 8EFæ:
-3&G3$+HIÇ Ê0
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
20/68
2
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
• :
Ê••Ç "#$ %& '#(æ)*(Ç '+•,-(Ç ./ •0# 1*2 ÇÑ345 67Ç89Ç :6+æäà Š¡';6;Çæ ÉÏ
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
21/68
3
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
áæ•Ç Ç:!"# É$%&Ç '(Ç)*Çæ !+Ç),Ãæ -æ$.Ç $*/Ç 0"12(
• ÁÇ !"#$ %&'(Ç Ç)* á+, -.æ ¡/0æ1'Ç /23Ç 4235 6 /789 :0;$Ã /0æ1'Ç Þ3Ç
Ãæ ?æ1'Ç >23Ç@ ÇAÅ B /0C7#Ç Ñ;2$DÇ 6 É>EF(Çæ ÉÏGHÇ I.Ç2Ç AÅ /=;JK;L ¡Máæ1'Ç 4235 /NO@Ã.
áæ•Ç Ç:!"Ç#$Ãæ %æ&'(Ç &)*Ç ã#+,-
.æÃ:%æ&'(Ç &)*Ç ã#+,-
æà • íÏ• !" æà Á#$%Ç &'(" áÏ•) !" *+%Çæ Ï,-.%•/ •.0 1 Á#$%Ç &'(" 20 ÉÑ•30 ,4 *+%Ç
Á#$%Ç 5%6% &'(-%Ç 2 *78à æà 9"Ç *+%Ç ä,:) !" íà • ìæ•+;)*+? 2æ @;.AÇ
æà ÉÏ•AÇ &'(" B) CæD3%Ç *+%Ç ä•EÏ,-.%•/ •.0 1 &(%æD3%Ç &(+ æà 2
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
22/68
4
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
Ç¡Ê•Ç !"Çæà É#$ %& Ñ•'()*+,-Ç Ê•.!/-Ç •01'2æ *3456Ç *78)Ç *-æ#7-Ç Ê•.!/-Ç •9 :3;
2æà * ì!")Ç *78)Ç áæ1-Ç æà .
Ì-ÉÑ!"Ç $%&:?@•8 AÅ *44B56Ç Ñ•'()Ç Ñ,CD 1'2 EF ¡Ê•5-Ç É#$ = !CD Ñ•'()Ç G& Ú,-Ç Ç%0
*-æ#7-Ç Ê•.!/-Çæ *H56Ç *-æ#7-Ç áæ1-Ç I'2 J2 áæ#7-Ç *K È•5FÇ = ÉÑ•LMÇ !'( 15;Çæ %"Ç *3'6Ç
¡*78)Ç,N O8à G&ã•Ç áæ#7-Ç !'( G; ÉÑ•7; ÉÑ•LMÇ !'( äÅ ¡J$!P-Ç J2 *-æ#7-Ç 1QÇ,'-Ç *K æà RSÒ
äÅ ¡T4B56Ç !'-Çæ G3'6Ç !'-Ç J2 U(,5& !'( V@Ç íà ¡T4B56Ç !'-Ç G; 1SWSæ G3'6Ç !'-Ç G; O4S í%-Çæ
V2 Ê%"à !'-Ç Ç%0¡*-æ#7-Ç äÇ137-Ç G& 1S1'-Ç V547+æJ2 X •& OY&= •@!$æ !QÇWZÇ1965ã.
Ï-'()*$+,Ç '-./,Ç $%&:[2!-Çæ O"1-Ç *7S!\ *K AÅ Ý•]& ã•Ç áæ#7-Ç Ì•5@Å *^3_- áÏ•'6Ç !'-Ç ,0
¡*-æ#7-Ç Éæ!Y-Ç á`a5(Ç Ê•K•^Nb *c•6Ç *-æ#7-Ç áæ13- É1Q•'-Ç *(•(à ÉÑ,d2*^3_-Ç e_'S !'-Ç Ç%0 äÐÅ
/-Ç •C'$1N f-Ç *44gÇ¡ã•Ç áæ#7-Ç G& O&!2 h3; •i,dg *-æ#7-Ç Ê•.! Ó•()Ç OYj :K,-Ç e^@ = ,0æ
ÉÑ••2 R7-Ç k'S !'-Ç Ç%0 G& OKl2 R7-•$ Þ,-Ç = *44B56Ç Ñ•'()Ç VK,$ ß!B5N í%-Ç.
æ-012Ç æà íÑ3-,Ç $%4,Ç:#7-Ç Þ,-Ç = •SÑ,$ æà •@ *-Ï•756Ç *-æ#7-Ç É1F,-Ç !'( ,0!'-Ç Ç%0æ ¡É!gÇ *-æ
*@ ÉÑ,d2æ *S#/6Çæ *\Ñ•'-Ç ÝÇ!+)Ç J2 áÏ•756Ç áæ#73- É!gÇ Þ,-Ç = •S14@ *-æ#7-Ç *'3-Ç *4- 1m1.
015,Ç 6.78,Ç:9:Ç3%,ÇÉÏ;8,Çæ0?áæ$@),Ç Ñ%&Ã
AæÃ:Ñ37@,Ç0B*Ñ@,ÇÑ%&Cáæ$@),Ç
äÅnSÑ•NÑ,PNÑ•'(à 7-Çáæ# oR]pÉqN,-*52•r•sÅæä•.t5S•4$æu•d6 ÊÇÑ•_5FbÇ*P^-Ç>-%-
Ê!CDÚÇ,@Ã !'- É1S1;áæ#7-Ç?FÝ1iÇí%-ÇV]54N*B3d&Ê•.!/-Çìv_-Ç.
1 Jean Pierre Angelier , « énergie international 1987-1988 » , Economica 1987, P 66
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
23/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
24/68
6
• •! • !" #"•$!"• #•%&!" '$()*+!"*',!
•• :ÊÇÏ!"Ñ•#$Ãáæ%&'(Ç
•Ê!"#$%&Ç'(æ)*+Ç#Ï,-.ÇäÅ)*/íÃ'*0/Ï$1-#23&4&Ç'5!-6789-0&:;ì?@¡'*0A&ÇäÅ C!DÇ?@789-&Ç¡!/æÑ¡ä5!;ÑÐáä-ApÒ_¡7#ÒÇZ&Çæ¡u
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
25/68
7
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
•Çæ•!"#$äà %Ç&'57 %()*+#,-'.Ç*/#0"Ç123/ÇÐ&4-567,89áæÏÞ•:"Ç;'?@<
2005¡#A*+#,-'.Ç CD*/#0"ÇÇE6# *&! *#%?!" *.",!" (",@ *7>%)>6 *A%B>6 *,C"D!"E%D>/% F)2-!" •&,!" #",.
4 www.opec.org
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
26/68
8
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
1-•Ã æ Á•!Ç áæ"#Ç $% &'()*#Ç Ê+',#Ç "'-./01 &'2Çæ &3Ï4)#Ç 56781 &37 Þ4(#Ç
9:; # &1?#Ç &'#æ@A#Ç B+'+ C',*/ C34D R=+OÇ áS J &'*)#Ç ÊÇTUÇ 43.(/.
2.2•Ç•æ!Ç•"#$(IEA):
"L#VWXYÃ 9:;Z.#ÇÏ4Z?ME&1ÒÃ [3.,#Çã1956MEæ ¡Ú)/ÑÇÑ?+Ã K)*#Ç\11973-
1974¡Ö4)#5']*/æ "'-./Ï.6^áæ"#Ç&_E6=,IÇJ` æ̂(OPEC)\)16=, 1974` æ̂['FÑ
Ê3O.#ÇÉ"a=IÇä.,_'YÉ."#ÇbÅÊ1._-&'*8#Ç áæ"#ÇÉÏÑ.=,IÇ ìT_#ÇÑ.•7 K)*E#Ú=̂ ÇJ
L=+OÇ&'()*#ÇÁ*Pà ÆÑÇ.(#ÇC'LGæÊÇÁÇ4^hÇ&E')_#ÇKR•%iE(#Ç"'c4/æß>6=+OǺ
1 $,-¡jÇ "AAL=,1K)*#Ç¡k4?#ÇlZ41Ê+ÇÑÏÉ"-.#Ç¡&'%4?#ÇÊæm%-¡ä*A#&?A(#Ç¡&'YH#Ç2006¡Õ275.
2\; &Q(E# &' #æ"#Ç Z.#Ç & #æÏ:Ê3O.#Ç¡É"a=IÇ¡Ç"*Zæ&_EIÇ¡É"a=IÇ¡'YIà ¡'#(3Ç'#Ç¡ä% ¡'#Ç@+Ç¡Ç"*E3Ò.'Y¡"3.,#Ç¡ßÑnÇ"#Ç¡_'oE%¡ÌÑ.A,Z.# ¡Ç"*#.;¡Ç"*#43Ç
¡Ç4,3.+¡'YA+Ç¡,*#Ç¡'Z4/¡äY.'#Ç¡,Y4¡Ç"*E¡4pÇ¡áR/T#Çg3æ4*#Ç.
3
$,-¡jÇ "A0 4̂1¡C%+Õ276
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
27/68
9
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
§•ã!Ê"#$%"ÚÒ#&&ÑæÏðá#'Þ#()Ç*+,-)Ç*.%)Ǻ
§01æ2"!345ì7.ÇÝ78&9Å:$;)ÇäÇ7$=$)•?>-.Ç5$;ABÇC$A•D+)Ç
ÉÏÑ#>(.Ǻ
§0?E("n' ¡•PDV•-P1973ÊÑ3D•@-.ÇÉÏ&ÒÑ%PÃáæ =̀)Ç
J"Y!R7'ÇæL,;>)J"3
ÑBæÏ5"\$)7'Ç#)Ç34#>Fà V1973
9Å12
ÑBæÏíà ¡5"\$)0[ÑÑ%P]Ç•+,-)Ç•=(-42400%º
1 ÉÑÇÏoÇ•&Ïb>DBÇ•"Ò]Ç ¡p4ÇæÕ).Ç•.%)ÇK%!ÇæqP•)æ]Ç•$@>XÇC$A•A-áæ =̀)ÇVÑ+D]Ç¡•43%)Ç•$aN,-)Çäæ%>)ÇæÏ7%)Ç ¡ä#TOr)Çæ s"tÇ 7$uÇ ¡v3%)Ç
128Á>w ¡2009Õ ¡16
2
Maurice durousset , « Le marché du pétrole » , Edition ellips 1999, P47.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
28/68
10
• •! • !" #"•$!"• #•%&!" '$()*+!"*',!
È(!Ò"Ç#$%&'Çã()1979:ÊÏ•!"#ÑÇæÑ•!$%Ç&'(•)*+,-æ./•"0&1$1979Ë2)ÊÇ303)Ç
È34Ç&'5Ç3!6Ç –&'(Ç378Ç)È39:';013Ñ?æÏ=Å32Ñ?æÏ*'0@;6á2A3BCà &;';5•DìÏÃ
=ÅÑ•E"(Ç&0ÒÃ &'6æF-&'(•)1º
Ê(!Ò"Ç#$%&'Çã()9861:HÚIJ$%ÇKA%Ç>03B,6Çáæ%Çã•1986L"MÇ3!$N"16Ç¡ÉO,-ÐÅ
L"MÇ3!$3P=Å á•Q,6Ç17.70Ñ?æÏ*'0@;6ÈÇF5•-æ ¡*RST'-36ÇU;V(ÇÈ39Ñ•!$à ¡&;0•CO!-
äà "5I#ÉFS>0¡>0W6ÇX"MÇæÑ•!$à N"16Ç*5à =Å>013Ñ?æÏ*'0@;62º
Ë(!Ò"Ç%&'Ç#$ ã()1998:H•Y&7Ê•'1'!Z[6ÇNJX6•-æ&1$1998\3!#ÞIZ6Ç&'6æFJ6Ç&']•!6ÇÉW^
&'(•)ÊÏà =Åá2[AÇKJ_Ö3!6Ç H`;V6ÇæÊÑIaO[SÑ•!$à áæFJ6Ç=ÅbÏà ìI[Z0•^•c*U7>10
Ñ?æÏ*'0@;6H@QZ7Ï>0d"(&1Z6Ç3º
Ì(!Ò"Ç#$%&'Çã()2004:W'eã•2004Ú•"#Ñ•-*fÇI[0Ñ•!$%N"16Çgh!] &1Z6Ç•̂ Ifææ=Å
Ê•7I[Z0&'$•'5iÑ•!$%Ç •aOB,#&'j?ÇN"1;6>0¡*J5ÐÅ*fæáO!]ÇíI1Z6Ç3!Z6&;$k-æà =Å
36.0Ñ?æÏ/*'03-)Iaæl;à áO!0íI1$&;Z6k-æà m10*Q!6Ç ÁO-ã•h1-&;Z6ÇHã•1987(4.
1 g'aÇ3-Å¡•nC Ñ•!$Ã N"16Çæ'(I7O0& i•!6Ço6•p6Ç*a>0&;q ¡&52N"16Çæäæ•![6Ç¡r3!6ÇO;sÇ15ÏO!6Ç54&1$1989Õ19
2 Á•'\O'q¡íI$I]ÇT/30¡t-•$Õ41
3 d7I6&hS•uÇ ¡v$I'/l;k$•e&Qh10k-æà -w0•X0äæ•![6Çw-áæO6Ç¡Á•X%ÇÚ•V5N"16ÇÒ•x6ÇæH&UV10¡:';
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
29/68
11
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
•Ç !"Ç:áæ•Ç •!" #$Ç•%æ Þ•&
•Å ! "Ï#$%&Çæ '(')*Ç +,Ç-.*! É/01 0)2!æ Ç345$, 67"78 Þ39æ ã:Ç áæ;0*Ç /.)< Ñ-=< Á>
'*æ;0*Ç Þ-)*Ç .'09')'?Ñ ÊÇ; 4@4 •Å Ñ-=$*Ç ÇAB +CÇ3, /)D< EFG HIÃ JC@KÇ E,æ ¡L2'C É7?)*Ç
MB L2'! N' 2"0$,æ:
1-'()*Ç Ñ+,$-Ç #. /0 ã+1Ç áæ•Ç •!" 2($•%)1920-1939:(
+CÇ3, 4@4 •Å BÑæ7! LN')O< EFG PC3KÇ 6AQ ã:Ç áæ;0*Ç /.)-e
H'*Å Ý_, '*æ7*Ç ÞÇ-(SÇ a [')FKÇ \'PW Ê,W Ó(Ã fPU d)g `3.*Ç \'P:Ç áæ;! äF ¡[')FKÇ
Z92, E, 'O'OhÇ EiX*Ç Ñ->Ã $IÇÌß@L$(&Ç Z92, •Å.
Ì-2Ï+*Ç É7$Ç8Ç Ó+34Ç 2)56 2($•%:
ÑVæH'*Å _, `3.*Ç \'P:Ç áæ;! 3.( ¡MP"N1 `3.*Ç \'P:Ç áæ;! 3.( È)$C! PC3KÇ 67B a d)g
Ç;PjÇ È3k! ]l æ( Á2', •Å `3.*Ç \'P:Ç E, +O2*Ç ^'*F3, ¡E(Ñ195
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
30/68
12
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
2-áæ•Ç • !"!#$ %&'•(íÑ)*'+Ç Ñ),#-+Ç ./ 01 ã)2Ç)1950-1980:(
•Ç ! "Å #$Ñæ%& #'()*+, -./ 01Ç 234 ã#5Ç áæ678Ç 9:*,1:
à - 34#5Ç 01)6 É!7)8:
áæ678Ç :; =?Ç @>A ä#B É%=#+8Ç 23$ CDæE.AFÇ%A%G H I)*.1Ç J)0K ÞL;æÑ#:;FÇM0:1Ç
áæ6708.
È- • É!7)89ÇÉÑ)::
&?Ç (NM OP7QÃ É6R8Ç 23$ á!K) Ï%G AÑ#.>?Ç )8æ678Ç Ê#BS8Çæ I Ñ#:;FÇ.
Ü;-05•Ç •)':(
ÉÑ%T1Ç áæ%8Ç (NM %A "Å ÉY)*8Ç 23$ •+>M>8 AÑ#.>?Ç )8æ678Ç Ê#BS8Ç ÉY); O8ÇÒ 01Ç 23$ H
H @.P>, OP7QÃ Z) áæ6708Ñ#:;FÇÊÇLM; >; ?Å ã%, [ -.8 ¡.
1 #\ ¡íÑæ%8Ç %]à %(\Õ ¡C W ̂ ¡_æ678Ç Ï#T>`?Ç H ÊÇa206
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
31/68
13
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
Ç•Ç !"#:$%&'Ç Ê(ÇÑ)Ç *+& $+,Ç-.
Ú••Ç Ç É!" Ê#æ$%& ' ()$*$+, ÊÁ$-. ä•/0$12Ç $34ÑÏà 562$7 58*à áæ912Ç Ú•• äà :;#
Ç # á$/Ç ?81@ AB" $3%,
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
32/68
14
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
• Ç•!æ áæ"#$Ç Ñ•%&à '(! Ê)*ÑÇ +,-•.Ç ÊÇ/01$Ç á23 +,45%$Ç +6Ï•789:Ç Ê•92%$Çæ +,;08$Ç äÃ Ç +?(8@.Ç 5A0$Ç Ê•BCæ Òæ54 DÅ ìÏà +BC EF +,45%$Ç +6Ï•789:Ç +,;08$Ç G +,$æ"#$Ç Éæ5H$Ç +,Ià ìF
ì53Ã +BC EF Éæ5H$Ç J
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
33/68
15
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
·•Ç Ï!"#$%Ç &'( ) •*+, -Ç ./012Çæ .3403Çæ ."Ï05!67Ç 89Ç:Ç ;9 "Ç .'3!< =æ>?Ç
@320Ç Ö•Çæ.
·•Å Ï É!"#Ç ÊÇ$%&Ç ' áæ()&Ç Ñ*+Ã ' ,-.%&Ç Ê*)/0 ' "Ï áæ()/& ÉÑ123Ç áæ1/& 45&
ì."Ã 6Ç7.
·Ç89Ç ' ,5/:&Ç ,-Ï*2;ÒÇ;&Ç .?@;áæ()&Ç Ñ*+Ã Ê*)/0; Ç!)A Ç!?@ .B .
•Ç !"Ç:#$Ñ%&Ê'ÇÑ(Ç#)*Ç #'ÇÑ(Ç +& #%,-Ç
·Ý1C D5E ,$5&Çæ Ý1FÇ D5G H6 ,5&*IÇ ,+ÇÑ1&Ç H7 *6 *7> J/;K áæ#Ç ,+ÇÑ1&Ç LÅ ,)%$&*
&Ç íÏ*2;
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
34/68
16
• •! "#$%&! •&'! •#()! #*'+,-.&!"-*/!
•Ç !"áæ#Ç:
•Ç! "#$%& '()(&Ç*+Å ÉÏ áæ*,Ç -%.'.Ï/%01Ç'(+(2Çæ'34 '(5Ãæ '(æ6Ç '((,7Ç 8(9: ;
•/
¡ÑÇ"W%+1Ç Ý"& 1 áæ*,ÇìÏÃæe
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
35/68
18
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•
Ê•Ç!Ç"#Ç$%&á'()*Ç+,Éæ-.Ç/0.æ12.ÇÇÏ3ÇÇ425á'647&83 ¡/9:%.Ç/;36æÉ1æÊ3%0?3-.Ç@&ä(.Ç¡@9A=.ÇãÇ•B)3>C!Ç:D.Ç/5Ç1EÇ /0.3EÇG0(H.Ê3?ÒÇ:.Ç/0,6Ç•.Ç¡/0IÑ3JÇæ*Å
äà 3&KL=MN.Þ:7.Ç/0.æ12.Ç@& /0E3=.ÇÊÇ"O/0.3&/9Ç•>@&/%)1986PQ/%)2010¡/R0?3OSTM
32,)30>3UÅæÉÏ•=& V&Ç:=>K7W=?ÇX/93Y%.Ç+,Ñ3=)à áæ12.Ç3Z:2OæÇÏ:=;æK[
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
36/68
19
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
áæ4Ç 56-7Ç:8/ÇÑÏ ÊÇæÏÃæ 89:#;86Ç
Ï•ÝÇ•Ç!"# $% &'(ÇÑ•) *+,-æ .-/0æ 123Ç *4+25 6 *(ÇÑÏ íà &7'8 9,:' ;3Ç *43Ç Ø/:?Çæ
@,- •"4 ;3Ç Ê&(ÇÑ•3ÇÈ/,(ÇABÑ&3ÇÈ/,(Çæ>Ç/C3&D E7= íF3Ç AGH/3ÇËÇ•IÇæ!8 ¡*+#&JÇ
í>KÇLMÇ Ï&NOPÇ @,- QRST *+G+Uæ áæV23Ç Ñ&4(Ã Ñ/: *(ÇÑÏ áWX.
ÇFYæ¡&7+) *8•Z[JÇ \&'JÇæ *(ÇÑ•3Ç Ú/0 ]Å 12JÇ ÇF 6 Þ>:3Ç E= Ý/(!8Ê&0&+23Ç $^ 9KÇ>5
&R_æ.
'?7Ç @AB7Ç
/%3Ç !8 *-/"` *:(Ç/D ã/,43Ç 6 &8 *a+0 ]Å bH/3Ç ]Å *=ÏcJÇ *%=>:3Ç / \7'JÇÇ!"+d ;3Ç *8&43Ç •-
•=•eæ b"43Ç R( @,-*+",- *a+0 ]Å bN= fI .&+,"-.
JÇ \7'J&D g2>=æ 123Ç Ú/#/8 *(ÇÑ•3 1I&23Ç &742= ;3Ç *%=>:3Ç ]Å \7'JÇ ã/7G8 Rh= >XÃ i4jæEKW
.)Ç•Ãæ 123Ç Ú/#/8 !8 bkD &%+Sæ &5&2ÑÇ 12,3.
ãÇ•Z(&D Aa7'JÇ b8&k3Ç !8 ÉÏ&G(PÇ ]Å &0TM •IÇ/3Ç \7'JÇ @,- @N4[= Ú/#/JÇ ä&U &Jæ\7'8 !8 >lUÃ
ÇFæ *(ÇÑ•3Ç QÏ•e \7'"U ABÑ&3Ç \7'J&D &'4(Ç •%) ¡*+a7'JÇ ÉÁ&Gk3Çæ *0æ>JÇ Ã•2J &%)æ7= \7'JÇ]Å Ý•
Ï>(äThD Ê&"+"N ]Å á/H/,3 9K&%mÇ QF b+,D &'"O n o48 pO/8 æà É>&C3Ç !8 Ê&0&+23Çæ 9K&%mÇ
AGH/3Ç \7'JÇ @,- &0•"-Ç íà *(ÇÑ•3Ç Ú/#/8 É>&C3Ç æà pO/JÇæn É>&C3Ç pHæ íà ¡A,+,3Çæ ABÑ&3Ç
&'lq Ú/#/8 ÌW43 &2(&'8 Q&'=ÃÑ &8 ÇFæ &7,+,e.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
37/68
20
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•Ç 4+15Ç:6/ÇÑ7Ç Ú0
•æÇ Ã !"#æ $%!&Ç '( )*+Ç ,-./0 '12 34 ¡5"# 6Çæ $7&( 89: •;ÇÑ+Ç ?@"0 A
ÉÁ!B1+ÇæÏC D+Ç E% •;ÇÑ+Ç •*-> F!G ÇÐH# ¡Ê!!-+Ç IJK •L;Ç/4 ÉÇÏà MÅ •")> 3G Ì!@C 34 •-N7&Ç
O íP+Ç QÑæ4 /%æ $7&Ç•")> 89: •+!RÇ •;ÇÑÏ S J@* T-9:æ ¡UV+Ç •")> Ï Ý7@W0 U-6 ¡ÁÇ"@;AÇ
•;ÇÑ+ÇÊÇXYÇ Z*4•;ÇÑ+Ç IJ@[ /%æ =Ç\]Ç Ï!?@^AÇ S¡_4 54Ñæ Ï! Å̀ áæ!C •;ÇÑ+Ç QP%æÑ!abÇ
• !ÇÊÇ"#$í%&Ç'(Ç Ï)*+,Ç -./0 1 ÊÇ%234Ç 567æ áæ89!Ç Ñ6:Ã.
;*6$æÊ7&*7 Ìæ%?Çæ @*:ÇÑÏæ ÊA/9!Ç B CDE •F •.G HI%J A%KA @
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
38/68
21
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•Ç 45-6Ç:#3ÃÊÇ#782 Ñ./Ãáæ#'-Ç*+,#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Çí
ÊÇ• ÑÃ !ÇÑÏ "#$%Ç Ç&' á() *+ áæ#,!æ ¡í-.Ç/0Ç Ï1234Ç 5 Ç/672+ ,839+ áæ:$;Ç Ú
?@A áæ:$;Ç Ñ8!Ã /0Ç 5 BÏ1234Ç ÊÇ-CD%Ç E8F-.Çá() ¡É:G;Ç)1970-2010(.
áæ9Ç :+16Ç:;$'ÊÇ#782 Ñ./Ãáæ#'-Ç*+,#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Çí.
)æÃ:Ñ012 ÊÇ
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
39/68
22
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
4(Ñ áæ5&Ç)2-1:(Ñ012 678(ÊÇÑÏ!Ç681"9Ç•:#$Ç%&Ç)1970-1985(
É5;0Ç:ä•ÑæÏ
!"#$Ç 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
!%&ÊÇÑÏ'($Ç)*"$Ç! 681 614 1.030 1.522 4.267 4.295 4.791
!"#$Ç 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
!%&ÊÇÑÏ'($Ç!)*"$Ç 8.746 12.91 13.06 11.149 9.655 9.778 9.668
Source : Opec annual statistical bulltein 2005 at : www.opec.org
È-6+;#7Ç68Ç:Ñ012 ÊÇ5$.Ç681"9Ç•:#$Ç%&Ç)1986-2009.(
+,- áæ'"./01É2*$Ç345678:
È-1-61986@AÃ Ú'"BÑÇ8C$ÇDÏ'(6&Çí8EÇFGÇ
HC$æIJ'KÚ8>Ã Ñ'LMÇ!>•%NÇÇ0OÑ'
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
40/68
23
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
È-2-Ñ012 Ç4$•.ÇÊ56•7Ç)2000-2009.(
•!"#$%&2000'(()Þ+,-Ç$."/%-Ç$.012-Ç131/4ÑÇ1&+,5Ñ12&6',728Ç 9/%-Ç1:1;Å
8(Ñ áæ4&Ç)2-3:(Ñ012 #./áæ#'-Çí#$Ç%&Ç)2000-2009.(
2009 2008 2007 2005 2004 2002 2000 ÊÇ+%,-Ç
61 98.9 74.7 54.6 38.4 24.8 28.8 áæ•ÇíÇ!Ç
Ñ•Ç:"#$%&'Çã()Çí*+,Ç-./+0 ¡123Çæà ÏÇ45à -6789.
!"# :$#ÃÑ%&'íÑ)*Ç äÇ+!Ç $,-. /0. áæ$*1Ç Ñ23Ãá45É$*6Ç1986-2010:
1-$#ÃÑ%&'ÊÇÑÏÇ /0. áæ$*1Ç Ñ23Ã
ÊÇÑÏ(:(3 ;7)8" Á< ¡=< >Å ?.2,#83 (+.@ íAÇæ -2+B*Ç ÊÇÑÏ(:Ç CD2E Ñ*F$ G(8Ç áæ4!Ç HI*"
" Á
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
41/68
24
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
4(Ñ áæ5&Ç2-4É#'"Ç á67 89#$Ç%&Ç ÊÇÑÏ!Ç Ñ0121986-2009
É5:0Ç:Ñ•æÏ äáæ!"#Ç Ñ$%&à ÊÇÑÏ$'#ÇÌÑ$(Ê$)æ*+Ç Ê$)æ*+Ç , ÊÇÑÏ$'#Ç -#$./Ç ÊÇÑÏ$'#Ç ÊÇ01#Ç
13.53 199 7621 7820 1986
17.73 204 8019 8223 1987
14.24 420 7685 8105 1988
17.31 396 8572 8968 1989
22.26 439 10865 11304 1990
18.62 375 11726 12100 1991
18.44 449 10388 10838 1992
16.33 479 9612 10091 1993
15.53 287 8053 8340 1994
16.86 509 9731 10240 1995
20.29 881 12494 13375 1996
18.68 551 13378 13889 1997
12.28 358 9855 10213 1998
17.48 438 12084 15522 1999
27.60 612 21419 22031 2000
23.12 648 18484 19132 2001
24.36 734 18091 18825 2002
28.10 673 23939 24612 2003
36.05 781 31302 32083 2004
50.64 907 45094 46001 2005
61.08 1184 53429 54613 2006
69.08 1312 58206 59518 2007
94.50 1945 77345 79290 2008
61.10 1050 42600 43650 2009
Ñ5!;Ç:23 ÇÏ$453Ç 6#$7#Ç ÏÇ83Å ,Ê$9$':Å;?#Çã@3A#Ê$9$':/Çæ
2-#3ÃÑ012 Ñ./Ãáæ#'-Ç*+,ÊÇÏÑÇ0Ç
6%BÑ$%&à áæ!"#Ç$CÑæÏDEFG5#Ç23HI:ÊÇÏÑÇ#Ç-J'KELÉ*M$"N#Ðæá@( ,EOBP9$&æ
QO8#ÇRSÑ$TÇ¡áæ!"#Ç Ñ$%&Ãæ ÊÇÏÑÇ#Ç Ñ7B UVW X$5#Ç áæ8YÇæ.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
42/68
25
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
4(Ñ áæ5&Ç2-5Ñ012ÊÇÏÑÇ0ÇÉ#'"Ç á67 89#$Ç%&Ç1986-2009
É5:0Ç:Ñ•æÏ ä áæ!"#Ç Ñ$%&à '#$()Ç ÊÇÏÑÇ#Ç)ä( ÊÇ*+#Ç
13.53 9213 198617.73 7064 1987
14.24 7323 1988
17.31 9208 1989
22.26 9684 1990
18.62 7680 1991
18.44 8406 1992
16.33 8789 1993
15.53 9365 199416.86 10761 1995
20.29 9098 1996
18.68 8687 1997
12.28 8403 1998
17.48 9164 1999
27.60 9173 2000
23.12 9940 2001
24.36 12009 200228.10 13534 2003
36.05 18308 2004
50.64 20357 2005
61.08 21456 2006
69.08 27439 2007
94.50 39470 2008
61.10 39100 2009
Ñ5!;Ç:Ê$,$-.Å /0 ÇÏ$120Ç 3#$4#Ç ÏÇ50Å 6789:Ç;#Ê$,$-.)Çæ
3-#3ÃÃ Ñ012./ Ñáæ#'-Ç*+,5
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
43/68
26
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
4(Ñ áæ5&Ç2-6Ñ012íÑ•&'Ç äÇ%67Ç 568ÑÉ#'"Ç á9: ;
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
44/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
45/68
28
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
.4ÇÑ:#3ÃÊ-+52 Ñ./Ãáæ#'-Ç*+,67•Ç%78Ç69.Ç6æ:+.
äÅÏÑÇ!Ê"#æ$%Ç&'()à *+,-ÇÑæÏ"!"./äÒÇ-012Ç314Ç0!"+5Ç5¡05æ6, 0)"7ÊÇÏÇ$89Ç äÃæ015æ;(5Ç
?.à Ñ6@!ÊÇÏÇ$89¡012Ç314ÇAB.æ0(CD5Ç/Ú"E-ÑÇ$FGC!"4"H0F1I5Ç äà 01I1IJÇÏÑÇ4 Ê"#æ$%Ç/
68Ç3-¡$FGC!Ç$K2Ú"E-ÑLÑ"+MÃ áæ;(5Çáæ6NÇæO(8 PÇ4ÇQ5Ð.
;(Ñ áæ:&Ç2-867•Ç%78+ 678Ç 67.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
46/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
47/68
30
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•Å æ80.35¡!"#$% Ñ&æÏ'()*+,-Ç./Ç0$1ÉÏ'2ÒãÇ3456ÇáÇ7"8Ç 9:;5%Ï'?5@&ÇAB7%Ç
)CÏæD$*1D!E>5%ÇD2Ï'?5@&ÇF=%Çæ ¡)2-1(í,-Ç./Ç áæGH%Ç Ñ'I6Ã Ñ7JK D@3L MN72.
4(Ñ 56Ç)2-1:(É#'"Ç á78 í#$Ç%&Ç áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 9:0; 2000-2010
ÉÇ #AB, *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã #3Ã
1-?+@2 ÊÇÑÏ!Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã #3Ã
'"Ã U1Ñ7JKÊÇÑÏ'?%ÇD!$F%ÇV@Ñ áæ3/Ç ã'@ÑÃ áWX U"æ)2-4(¡YCZ' [C,1\;ì,X8ÇÊÇ]^KÉ,E5_"
O%Ðæ`D*!5 'aB'HKÑÇÑ'I6bL¡áæGH%Çä8æDH_`É]Hc'a>"dE5Ke¡Ê'@æ,fÇÊ.!g 3P$CÉGh%Ç1986-
1989Ö'hi'LD$!?T¡ÊÇÑÏ'?%ÇS!T[C,10?@Ã DE!@'jáWX9:;ÉGh%Ç'"Ñ3P2È8968ä7!$"
¡Ñ&æÏkH_%ÇæeO%ÐÏ7I2•ÅÖ'hiÇÑ'I6à l%Çæ áæGH%ÇmÒæ'*5K18&æÏÑ!"#$%áWX9:;¡ÉGh%Ç
enT[$*6D$!?TÊÇÑÏ'?%Ço5E!@ '"11304ä7!$"Ñ&æÏD>61990kH_LÛ7$L,I6áæGH%Ç
ì75_"22.26Ñ&æÏ3@æ !"#$%[$*6'N'hiÇÊÇ7>61992¡1993S!T[$*60$1pÇ75%Ç'"
o5E!@10838¡æ10091ä7!$"Ñ&æÏ¡\F2,"à Ï7I2æO%ЕÅÖ'hiÇÑ'I6à áæGH%ÇD`Ñ'P"D>_L1990
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
48/68
31
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
í•ÇæÝ!"#$%&áæ'(Ç)*"+,#-22.26Ñ.æÏ¡/#*0123æ415&6%7à ÊÇÑÏ)81 :1#8;:#1*Ñ.æÏ?@A*à B#;4$!C•D:+Ç%&
20.29æ18.6Ñ.æÏ¡/#*01Ïæ)%+:#1*
Ñ.æÏ¡?@A*à S(E=Ö)FGÇ/#*0Ç %EI*áæ'(Çí•Ç/TæUÅVÏà ì>+E*")12.28Ñ.æÏ
/#*01(.
É'FÇ )*Ã2000-2009B#; )W>J1* ÇÑ>XN 4$!413+OÇI*612ä>#1*Ñ.æÏ:#1*:YZ:æ2ÇH:#,,,%Ç
HbÇcdÇHÛ>1=Ý2eÇí•Ç"+fÑg*68+Ç HUÅA28N2Ñ)#1*Ñ.æÏ
?@A*Ã I*Ê)5+
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
49/68
32
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•!"#$ÊÇ%&'•()'Ç*+Ñ•#,Ã áæ-.'Ç/ÞÇ0,1Ç¡'æ2'Ç3Ñ 567'Çæ)2-2(ÊÇÑÏ•8'Ç Ñ09: ;'Ç á?@ '•ABÇ1986-2009.
4(Ñ 56Ç)2-2(7809 É#'"Ç á:; ?@Ç ÊÇÑÏ•!Ç Ñ0121986-2009.
ÉAB0Ç:ÑCæÏ ä0"$
•! #!$%&!
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
•! #!$%&!
Ñ28DÇ:3Ñ áæ2EÇ Ê•9#$ F"G Á•H( I'•9'Ç ÏÇ2GÅ J$)2-4(
2-ÊÇÏÑÇ0Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ•./Ã #3Ã
J$á?@áæ2EÇ3Ñ)2-5(K?GÃL=•H'äà "8MÊÇÏÑÇ0'ÇNOìP@à Q:Ê•."!'•(•"R$5R$
Ï•8'Ç¡ÊÇÑS'Ðæä1ÇÁQT•H$U0=F"G3VMÊÇÑÏ•8'ÇäÃæKWOÉ%@1Ç2#:F"G •OÑæ2(Ñ•#,à X>H'Ç
)'ÇQ:ã2#(ÑÇP!,CÇNO¡ìP@1ÇäÃæÁQEÇP@1ÇJ$ÊÇÏÑÇ0'Ç,•Y'•( Z"#$=0H'Ç)'Ç2#:•"G
¡'æ2'Ç2!'["V,"8MÊÇÏÑÇ0'Ç3\>]H$ÊÇ0H,1987¡1988S'Ðæ!(7064æ
7323ä0"$ÑCæÏF"GÇ̂0'ÇI.Y'Çæ/S'Ð_Å Ï0#=Ö•>`ÇÑ•#,à áæ-.'Ç)'Çæ[&"(ì0Y$17.73
æ14.24ÑCæÏ5$a"'F"GVbæ ¡^Ç0'Ç,•,U7!'Ç)'Ç•!.cPdÇQEÇVbÚ•>:ÑÇ"8eÇ
88]DÇJ$ÊÇÑÏ•8'Ç$2f¡b0=2DÇ^•'•(æ:U0 Ê•99g¡H'ÇÏæ•#'Ú•>:ÑCÇH,1989¡S'Ðæ
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
50/68
33
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•!Ç"#Ç á%&'()*ÊÇ+*,-./.Ý0Þæ+12+314Ç5æ+4Ç6Ñ,0Å7.,84ÇíÏÇ+9:;Çí-4Ç
áæ?@8406æ8789
ä%)./^4 ¡ÑAæÏ,H)&'•_F`1. =3NÇaCæ]RÇÑJÅÉÏ%*•:,:bc_4Ç()*¡ÊÇÏÑÇ%4Ç,?L=):
•)&'T1: ÊÇÏÑÇ%4Ç1994æ1995,.>?@9365æ10761ä%).ÑAæÏBCæ•)&'•9FG.
•Ñ,3.1996æ1997YZÑÖ,FXÇÑ,9:à ¡áæKE4ÇT4Çæ=):()*5Ç%4Ç15.53æ16.86ÑAæÏ
d.8)4DE-4Çæ6[4ÐÏ%9IJÅONÇ+4Ç•9:Ç%4ÇIP4ÉÑ,4Çef1*ØÇLÅ(M%Læ6¡ÏÇO:AÇh=L*,M,FXÇT1:1996æ1997i'=):,.>?@
9098æ8687ä%).ÑAæÏ[4ÐæYZÑÚ,FGÑÇÑ,9:à ¡áæKE4Ç=): i'()*5Ç%4Ç,.>[email protected]æ
18.68ÑAæÏd.8)4[4Ðæ•Ø%EC•!Çac4Ç ÊÇÏÑÇ%4Ç•ÉÏ,IÒÌ,;Ç¡B*ÇÑ"4Ç•æ•F&GÉÏ,*Åæ
•)^CÊ,-:jkÇ•.,94ÇOZT4Çæ •4,9F4Ç=,l+?9GÇÏ,?*ÇÇOEl()*¡ÊÇÏÑÇ%4Ç=L*æ•1:1998
•)&'•_F`1.ÊÇÏÑÇ%4Ç /.BCìf4AÅ>Ã 6
•1:1999ÊÏæ,*Ú,FGÑAÇ=)2ææJÅ9164ä%).ÑAæÏ.
/.æáUf,.nE:äoL•)&'ÊÇÏÑÇ%4Ç=-4•pEG.d^qNB)lÑ,9:rNáUf Ê,@æsÇtaC¡ÉKF4Çi'
äà ÇÁ"R,H1.bEGIÑ,9:rNsÇÊ,@æ /.áUftOurG¡ÊÇÑÏ,&4Ç ()*,?1NÁ"#Çf
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
51/68
34
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
à • á•ÉÇ2000-2009!ä" #$%&'ÊÇÏÑÇ(Ç)!*+á•,-.ÉÇ¡Ç*/012 3+34ÑÇ#$506272
9173ä(%$2Ñ8æÏ#692000:Å32;5?@'ÊÇÏÑÇ(ÇAB4*2;Ñ3F9à GÇæ áæBÇ)$50HÇ3.Ñ3F9à 7227.60Ñ8æÏI%2J$#69
2000:Å61.10Ñ8æÏI%2J$#692009¡äÃæÇ-.Ú34Ñ8ÇÏ(F
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
52/68
35
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
3-íÑ•&'Ç äÇ%45Ç 647Ñ *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ•./à #3Ã
•á!"#$%$&áæ'($)*+Ñ)2-6(-./Ê"0$123'%4ÑäÇ5%6ÇíÑ"(7)Çá!É89)Ç1986-1999¡
í:)Çæ;.ÊÇÏÑÇ;)ÇÊÇÑÏ">)Çæá!?:)Ç=(%7/æ
bd;9)Ç3ÏÇB7FGÇ=(%7/BKÇ'2@X@&ÉÑ"(7)Ç=%]Ñ"̂ ÇV)Çæ• SNQÑ=$%>.¡ÊÇÏÑÇ;)ÇGÅe/Ã 3R7#J)Ç
R7%)"7)ÇÏ"A6ÇäÇ5% íÑ"(7)ÇYÅf%1&'%4ÑI];D%.f1."OP"Qe7_%+4277ä;%$ÑGæÏ=#F1996
æ5202ä;%$ÑGæÏ=#J)1997=(%7/ H)Ðæ ¡Ú"92ÑÇ=$%>.ÊÇÑÏ">)Ç=g"#)Ç•AÚ"92ÑÇÑ"NFà áæ80)ÇV)Çæ
S$(F"e7_%+20.29
æ18.68
ÑGæÏE%W$)b$A¡cÇ;7)Ç=(%7/æÖ"9LÇæ=$%>.;)ÇÊÇÏÑÇV)ÇæÏ;N2YÅhiO)Ç =F"%FV)Ç"j7FÑ"=)æ')Çb$A¡ÊÇÏÑÇ;)Ç3R.äà =#F1998SQ@A"d"9LÇ3äÇ5% '%4Ñ
Ê"A;Q'6ÇD%.Ñ'+?'%4ÑÈ810ä;%$ÑGæÏH)Ðæ=(%7/a]Ç@2=$%>.¡ÊÇÑÏ">)Ç ÊÇÏÇ@XÅV)ÇæÏ;N2
"
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
53/68
36
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•Ã á!É#$%Ç2000-2009&'()•*%äà Ç+,-ÑäÇ.,/ÇíÑ•0(%ÇÝ123,456$71¡•89Ý12Ç+)Ç.7Ç18(:
;,(?Ç+,-ÑÇ.,/ÇäíÑ•0(%Ç@12858ÑAæÏ äB,C5*D2000EÅ•F(8,439820äB,CÑAæÏ
5*D2008¡ÇGHæÑBI(%ÇJ+,-ÑíÑ•0(%Ç äÇ.,/ÇK'71)•L•'7ÑÇ•>,MæÑ•6DNO;,< ¡áæ#'%Ç@Ç.7ÇGHÑBI(%Ç
3,>O56$71áæ#'%Ç Ñ•6DPQ%ÇæRC>(?Ç•HÑæ[email protected]ÑAæÏ=,SC%5*D2000EÅ94.50ÑAæÏ
=,SC%5*D2008¡5*D J T$U*,%200958,4 EÅ4550ÑAæÏ äB,C.
@æá!•V'D&'()•*%äà +,-ÑäÇ.,/ÇíÑ•0(%Çá!É#$%Ç2000-2009VC6()=WXOY'9Ñ•6DNO
áæ#'%Ç;,
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
54/68
37
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
áæ•Ç!äà "#à ã•$ÑÇ%&'()Ç*+,-ÇíÏ./'0)Çã.$ "2345æ67.,-Ç89:Ç•-Ç;.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
55/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
56/68
39
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
• æ í!Ç "#!Ç $%&' &( Ô)(*+Ç á,- .% •$!æ/0!Ç •1)02Ç ÊÇÏÇ&1Å ÉÏ)1Ò Ç3æ ¡•$!æ4!Ç •$!)5Ç Ê)675Ç
19918Å19.% 9!Ðæ ¡):Ï)1Ò ; *!Ç ?à .% •%)(!Ç Ê)@#!Ç á)A BC- D!Ç ÊÇÏÇ&1EÇæ ¡ÑFæÏ
!Ç GHÑ á,-Ñ)(IÇ ã)J+ äK+)L Ñ)MÅ ; Ò)NEÇ .O
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
57/68
40
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
•Ç ! "#$ %&' ¡•()Ç *+, -$Ç.)Ç /012)Ç0,5%3 45#$ í+)Ç ì67(8Ç 9: ;PÇQ!Ïæ íÏ=R7ÉÑVC#)•6T7)ÇW)Ç-7T7JX= .KÇLÇÁÇ.YÚ=DJÑÇ¡áæZH)Ç Ñ=O@à [\1>æäà •T&<
Ê=CD)Ç•:=O)ÇAB.!ÉÏ=Ò•H($%106=:]$•@2000•@ ^Å2006-DJÑÇæ:=O:; •&OH7)Ç•&)æZH)Ç
^Å_#!Ã 4J=67(:%673•@2006¡;@ =TUV&̀ Ñ•&>Ç&8Ç=aK=B=Tb:á1c*+?ÉZD)Ç-DJÑÇæ
•DR$É.T7(:1(:•@2006dK=D)ÑVäà ;:=!ÉÑVPÇã=O)Ç3¡.KÇLÇ.:hÇí+)Ç_Jj79:•#&R\•=HLÇ•&)æZH)Çk=7)=$æla7=Y =)äà Ñ=O@Ã
áæZH)Ç.0mJ•DR$neÉ.o=H:3Q\Þ=D>PÇ¡ã=O)Ç9:á1cnB6J•:Ò1)Ç ÏÑÇ68Çf#7)Ê=CD)Ç;pq)Çæ ¡
Ç&8Ç V&`Ñ1986-2006.
4(Ñ 56Çæ)2-5:(É#'"Ç á78 9:Ç%:;Ç Q
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
58/68
41
•Ç !"Ç í#$Ç%&Ç Ï!'()Ç *+, áæ#'-Ç Ñ./Ã Ñ012 #3Ã
!"•Ç 4567:
•Ç Ç !"Å #$%&'( #) á*+ ,)-./#) Ì#0$01Ç ,23 4 :
·ÑÇ&501Ç äÅÏ#506Ç7.6 &8Ç9:Ç;8Ç20/ í&8Ç9:Ç Ï#•0%?Ç ,) @.=A Ê#"B#5CÇ ÉDE F"'$Ç
;G ;%æ ;8ÇK &8#L+ìF)ÒÃ ;=G #".Aæ #MNÇæ OÐ1986#JPQ(æ
/Ï#•0%?Ç ÊÇJR0SÇ 7.6 T.LÇF &8Ç9:Ç ìU2Ǻ
·Ñ;"VÑ ,LW ,)Ç9( X"Y ¡áæD>Ç Ñ#=1QG J>K 42ZG [.=0/ F1ÇÑ;Ç ÉDE á*+ íÑ#\0Ç äÇ9"SÇ ;"V
áæD>Ç Ñ#=1à Ú#(ÑÇ ]) íÑ#\0Ç äÇ9"SÇ^2=#G ^2=Çæº
·F/#>:Ç 42Z(Ñ#=1à ìÇ
áæD>Ǻ
·Ç b(#$ÇáæD>Ç Ñ#=1Ã ÊÇJR0G J>K 42ZG &PQ0/ F1ÇÑ;Ç ÉDE á*+ c#deÇ -.f.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
59/68
43
•
•:
•ÇÉÏ!"ã#$%&'($%)*+,-"./ 1 Ô2Ç3äÇ4'/$5'6Ç)-"à 781-%äÇ4'/ 3¡Ï9:;?æ@'A
B/Ç&CÇ$'5'6ÇD"Ç BE*FG5æÃæ./B/Ç&CÇ¡$%Ï9:;
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
60/68
44
•
Ê•Ç Ñ•!"#Ç:
äà • !"Çæ #æ$Ç %&'()"Ç * +,&-./ %01 234áæ56"Ç (78æ•Ç !"Ç#$ÇÑ#à !#%
ÑÇ&'()Ç Ý* ) áæ+,$Ç•$æ+,$Ç ÞÇ-Ç ./#$Ç • ÇÑ0$Ç 1$ 2(,3Ã 04æ ¡•5&6$Ç 789 •:; < 1=4 >$Ç •¡
•?$Çæ •@ÏA(4)Ç ËÇ0BCÇ DE(F/ •?B •ÇÑ0$Ç É+G áHI •$æ+,$Ç Þ?$Ç)Èæ&JÇ¡ÊÇÑÇ&'$Ç
•?$ÇK$Ç LM&$Ç ¡(¡•$((" Ê"Òà Ëæ0B NÅ O$Ð ìÏÃæ ¡ÑÇ&'()Ç Ý* ) áæ+,$Ç Ñ#à !#P Q
R/#$Ç ÏA(4)Ç SET U3V($Ç . WXY(Z 26E(IÇ•;I ÉÑAM í&YÇ[Ç ÏA(4)Çæ •"T ÉÑAM.
=G\]•5&6$Ç•Z^$Ç>$Çæ\1*ETS äà _M •4HT 0`*áæ+,$Çæ0YÇ#$Ç áHI a" bc$Ç !I0$Ç•$/Ç
Ú6*Ñ)Ç 0#M •;I 9&G@ >$ÇUd!@e a" •f61$Ç áæ0$Ç a" 9Udæ &YÇ[Ç age >$Çæ ¡7Ñ#Ã . Þ,?/Ç
•=1($Ç •E=T•@ÏA(4)Ç¡0'G2(,3Ã 1$>$Ç •ÇÑ0$Ç1=4
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
61/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
62/68
46
•
Ê•Çæ Ê•!"Ç:
ÇÁ•!"#$•%&Ç'&Ç•!()*•+,&Å-.á/0Ç12345&Çä)67•8•6.9:;Ê•?@
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
63/68
48
•!"#)1(
• !"!"#$ %&'()$ • !*()$ %&'()$ +&*,$ -#. /!0$ 1.-'$ +&*,$ -#. /!0$ 1.-'$
2$34$
2.32 1.30 2.23 1.30 1970
3.05 1.57 3.21 1.65 1971
3.28 1.73 3.61 1.90 1972
3.58 2.28 4.25 2.70 1973
9.63 7.27 12.93 9.76 1974
7.70 7.18 11.50 10.72 1975
8.11 7.11 13.14 11.51 1976
8.14 7.05 14.31 12.40 1977
7.56 6.73 14.26 12.70 1978
15.57 8.37 32.11 17.26 1979
16.39 12.40 37.89 28.67 1980
14.40 13.44 36.68 34.23 198112.19 11.58 33.42 31.74 1982
10.34 9.98 29.83 28.77 1983
9.54 9.29 28.80 28.06 1984
8.69 8.76 27.33 27.54 1985
4.50 4.26 14.50 13.73 1986
5.53 5.20 18.34 17.23 1987
4.37 3.91 14.97 13.40 1988
5.09 4.53 18.22 16.20 1989
6.38 5.54 23.99 20.82 1990
5.10 4.44 19.99 17.43 19914.79 4.44 19.33 17.94 1992
4.10 3.78 17 15.68 1993
3.72 3.63 15.80 15.39 1994
3.91 3.85 17.01 16.73 1995
4.65 4.48 20.70 19.91 1996
4.20 4.12 19.06 18.71 1997
2.72 2.61 12.71 12.20 1998
3.78 3.68 17.91 17.45 1999
5.87 5.53 28.44 26.81 2000
4.90 4.62 24.46 23.06 2001
4.93 4.79 25.03 24.32 20025.56 5.35 28.81 27.69 2003
7.24 6.54 38.23 34.53 2004
10.09 9.31 54.37 50.15 2005
11.84 11.10 65.14 61.05 2006
- - 72.39 69.07 2007
- - 97.26 94.08 2008
- - 61.67 61.39 2009
- - 79.50 78.09 2010
%56*$: 708 9$5:; 8 -?-"@+BP
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
64/68
49
• !"#)2(
•: • !"#
$%&'(%
)!*(%
$%%+,-
.!(+/*(% .,)*0(% 1&(% .*'2%
1963243-
196544783,95
19701350202,01
1971164822,07
1972327898,90
1973411425,50
197413399225,69
1975134620,47
1976142375,7519771801926,56
197817365-3,62
19792651652,69
19803765842,01
19815095435,30
198241458-22,9
198337720-9,01
19844384116,22
1985467876,71
198621439-54,17
198720479-4,47
19882410017,68
19894550088,79
19907620067,47
1991161500111,94
199219380020
1993179218-7,52
199422217623,96
199533614851,29199650783751,07
199757076512,39
1998378714-33,64
199956011647,89
200072000028,54
200184060016,75
20029164009,01
2004862200-5,9
•: .!()1(% 3•%4-56%+7"( .#)8(% .,+,91(%-
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
65/68
50
• !"#)3(
•:• !"#$%& '() *+, -() !&./& 012 3*+412756)7 20088 166.
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
66/68
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
67/68
49
02-•¡ÇÇ !"#$%Ç !&Ï'()•*Ç Ê'+ÒÇ,)%Ç .#/ áæ13%Ç Ñ'45à Ê'3#67 Ê'5'$4+Ç ¡!48,9 :";,• íÑ%Çäæ'4)%ÇæÏ
8/19/2019 Rouidjaa Said
68/68
•æ!Ç #$Ç%&Ç:
www.opec.org
www.ons.dz