SAAREMAA PÜSIÜHENDUS

SAAREMAA PSIHENDUSURMAS KONSAPEuroprogrammide osakonna juhataja

Saaremaa psihenduse arendamise hetkeseisSitjate ja veoste le Suure vina veo perspektiivse korraldamise kava ja KSHVtmeksimusedMis edasi ?

LIIKLUS LE SUURE VINA2005 - 3200 reisijat ja 1170 sidukit pevas2000-2005 - liikluse kasv ~10 % aastas2006 - 3586 reisijat ja 1308 sidukit pevas2006/2005 reisijate kasv 5,8% ja sidukid 9.9%2006-2010 liikluse kasvu prognoos 5,5% aastasPeale psihenduse avamist liikluse kasv 25-28% (2233)

Chart1

117011701170

1640.9855249191529.1432074991423.483895808

1954.44001594691745.00642867171578.242040057

2071.70641690371823.53171796191633.480511459

2720.15052539462232.91458864431779.3503211322

3642.43176772092704.59614667712082.9964385696

4422.92654307172982.93032382022186.7859408008

4978.042790213104.04925651782230.8507722676

6794.35146265523955.4580441192635.0087155272

7501.51302011144157.22615711792701.5459875978

8282.27652045994369.28647166962769.7634091679

Optimistlik

Mdukas

Pessimistlik

AKPL

Liiklus le Suure vina

Graph

Aasta20052010201320142014202020252029203020352040

Optimistlik11701641195420722720364244234978679475028282

Mdukas11701529174518242233270529833104395541574369

Pessimistlik11701423157816331779208321872231263527022770

Graph

Optimistlik

Mdukas

Pessimistlik

AADT

Traffic Across Suur Strait

Central

Trafic growth rates

TrafficPer day

Central scenarioAADTGen growth2004378000Abolishing

YearTotalCars/vanBusesLorriesAVGfactor/yearCarsbusesLorries20053987901093

200511705.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%3780001.05

201015295.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%396900

201115984.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%365

201216704.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%1087.3972602745%

201317454.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%1141.7671232877

201418244.5%

Opening year 201422331960100172122.5%25.0%10.0%5.0%curiosity trips90

2015242321391041804.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%curiosity trips90

2016240521131071853.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%Negative curiosity trips 90

2017247721761101913.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

2018255022411121973.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

2019262623091152033.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

2020270523781182093.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

20212.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20222.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20232.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20242.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

2025298326251272302.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20261.0%Commercial trips5%

20271.0%according to Hillar Varik about 5-6%

20281.0%

2029310427321322401.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%%5 more trip

Abolishing toll

20303955355115225230%15.0%5.0%Loading capacity rate avg55%

20311.0%

20321.0%

20331.0%

20341.0%

2035415737331602651.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%

20361.0%

20371.0%

20381.0%

20391.0%

2040436939231682781.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%

High

Trafic growth rates

TrafficPer day

High scenarioAADTGen growth2004378000Abolishing


200511707.0%7.0%6.0%7.0%3780001.05

201016417.0%7.0%6.0%7.0%396900

201117396.0%6.0%6.0%7.0%365

201218446.0%6.0%6.0%7.0%1087.3972602745%

201319546.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%+10% cars1141.7671232877

201420726.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%

Opening year 201427202405119196131.3%35%15%5%Curiosity+5% cars

2015295526261242065.0%5.0%4.0%5.0%Curiosity100

2016300126571292165.0%5.0%4.0%5.0%-100

2017315027901342275.0%5.0%4.0%5.0%

2018330629291392385.0%5.0%4.0%5.0%

2019347030761452505.0%5.0%4.0%5.0%

2020364232291512625.0%5.0%4.0%5.0%

20214.0%4.0%3.0%4.0%

20224.0%4.0%3.0%4.0%

20234.0%4.0%3.0%4.0%

20244.0%4.0%3.0%4.0%

2025442339291753194.0%4.0%3.0%4.0%

20263.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%5%

20273.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Commercial trips

20283.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%according to Hillar Varik about 5-6%

2029497844221973593.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%

Abolishing toll%5 more trip

20306794619122637740%15.0%5.0%55%

20312.0%Loading capacity rate avg

20322.0%

20332.0%

20342.0%

2035750268352504162.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

20362.0%

20372.0%

20382.0%

20392.0%

2040828275472764602.0%

LOW

Trafic growth rates

TrafficPer day

LOW scenarioAADTGen growth2004378000Abolishing


200511704.0%4.0%3.5%3.5%3780001.05

201014234.0%4.0%3.5%3.5%396900

201114733.5%3.5%3.0%3.5%365

201215253.5%3.5%3.0%3.5%1087.3972602745%

201315783.5%3.5%3.0%3.5%1141.7671232877

201416333.5%

Opening year 20141779154584150108.9%10%3%2%Curiosity80

201519211679871553.5%3.5%3.0%3.5%Curiosity80

201618891641881592.5%2.5%2.0%2.5%

201719361682901632.5%2.5%2.0%2.5%

201819841724921672.5%2.5%2.0%2.5%

201920331768941712.5%2.5%2.0%2.5%

202020831812961762.5%2.5%2.0%2.5%

20211.0%1.0%0.5%1.0%

20221.0%1.0%0.5%1.0%

20231.0%1.0%0.5%1.0%

20241.0%1.0%0.5%1.0%

202521871904981851.0%1.0%0.5%1.0%

20260.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%Commercial trips5%

20270.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%according to Hillar Varik about 5-6%

20280.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%

2029223119431001880.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%%5 more trip

Abolishing toll3.0%

20302635233111019420%10.0%3.0%Loading capacity rate avg55%

20310.5%

20320.5%

20330.5%

20340.5%

2035270223901131990.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%

20360.5%

20370.5%

20380.5%

20390.5%

2040277024501162040.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%

PSIHENDUSE VIMALUSED

MAJANDUSLIK- JA FINANTSANALSMajandusanals koostatud perioodile kuni 2040Eeldused:Ehitusperiood 2010 - 2013Keskmine letustasu tnastes hindades - 110 kr. siduauto kohta koos reisijategaPlaneeritav letustasu thistamine 2030

Majanduslik sisemine tasuvusmr: silla variantidel 5,8 - 7,1% tunneli variandil 1%

PSIHENDUSE MAKSUMUSED mln.kr.

Chart2

64.90242.322.602

66.245.620.6

79.849.130.7

81.153.227.9

108.56048.5

111.663.348.3

185.678.4107.2

194.793.5101.2

261.3111.6149.7

271.9123.2148.7

283.5129.5154

296136.1159.9

372.1143.1229

Kogukulu

Tulu piletimgist

Dotatsioon

Aasta

Mln EEK

Praamiliikluse kulud ja dotatsioon

Cantilever

Route III -bridgeCentral

Cantilever Bridge3660

Investment costMill. EEKCost factor1.000Ferry subs1.00

Bridge including appr.roads2,750

Factor1.15

Toll station2040.3m EURtime savings1.0

Total inv. costs2,770O&M

NPV,Inv-1,867Kmcauseways/ramps6.67km1200.6'000 EEK

Total length to drive10.2kmCosts732m EEK

O & M costs0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%

Rate of interets in calculations6.00%

NPV mill EEK20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Total investment cost-2,0190000-581,700-880,860-889,170-592,780

Residual value268.30000000000000000000000000000002062500

Operation & maintenance-116.500000000-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-8,889-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-18,979-29,069-29,069-29,069-29,069-29,069-29,069

Time savings1016.60000000072,79278,97983,71888,74194,06699,710105,692108,863112,129115,493118,957122,526126,202129,988133,888137,904163,348168,248173,295178,494183,849189,365195,046200,897206,924213,132219,525

add km -cost-393.100000000-33,003-34,488-36,040-37,662-39,357-41,128-42,978-44,268-45,596-46,964-48,373-49,824-50,820-51,837-52,873-53,931-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261

Induced traffic

time savings148.50000000090609,83010,66511,57212,55613,62314,44015,30716,22517,19918,23018,77719,34119,92120,51924,30425,03325,78426,55827,35528,17529,02129,89130,78831,71232,66333,643

add km cost-39.000000000-3417-3,571-3,732-3,900-4,075-4,258-4,450-4,584-4,721-4,863-5,009-5,159-5,262-5,367-5,475-5,584-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696

Externalities

Impact on accidents114.00000000010,52810,84311,16911,50411,84912,20412,57012,94813,33613,73614,14814,57315,01015,46015,92416,40216,89416,89416,89416,89416,89416,89416,89416,89416,89416,89416,894

CO, Nox, particles72.9000000006,3826,6706,9707,2837,6117,9548,3118,5618,8189,0829,3559,6359,82810,02410,22510,42910,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,638

CO219.9000000002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400

Saved ferry subsidies1112.400000000101,209101,209101,209101,209101,209101,209149,709149,709149,709149,709149,709148,662148,662148,662148,662148,662153,923153,923153,923153,923153,923159,938159,938159,938159,938159,938229,02600000

Expected additional ec. growth127.80000000002,7175,4358,15210,86913,58614,40215,26616,18217,15318,18219,27319,85120,44621,06021,69122,34223,01223,70324,41425,14625,90126,67827,47828,30229,15130,026

SUM

312.9

NPV312.90000-581,700-880,860-889,170-592,780157,061165,700172,904180,410188,238196,410251,207255,312259,592264,055268,711261,883266,231270,718275,349283,298306,642312,964319,475326,182333,090336,130343,458351,007358,782366,7902,506,626

EIRR7.0%

NPV bridge cost-1,867

Increasestraffic+income

4%5.5%

4%8.5%Economic growthEUREEK

3%6.0%GDP per capita, Estonia480073440per capita

2%3.00%In Saaremaa

3700027172801000 EEK0

0.5%ekstra135861000 EEK

1.58

3.9%

Increased traffic

growth 2005-2010

2011-20155.5%

2016-20204.5%

2021-20253.0%

2026-20302.0%

Cable Stayed_central

Route III -bridgeCentral

Cable Stayed Bridge3660


Bridge including appr.roads2,860

Factor1.15



NPV,Inv-1,943Kmcauseways/ramps6.67km1201'000 EEK


O & M costs0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%


NPV mill EEK20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Total investment cost-2,0990000-604,800-915,840-924,480-616,320

Residual value279.10000000000000000000000000000002145000


Time savings1016.60000000072,79278,97983,71888,74194,06699,710105,692108,863112,129115,493118,957122,526126,202129,988133,888137,904163,348168,248173,295178,494183,849189,365195,046200,897206,924213,132219,525

add km -cost-393.100000000-33,003-34,488-36,040-37,662-39,357-41,128-42,978-44,268-45,596-46,964-48,373-49,824-50,820-51,837-52,873-53,931-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261-63,261

Induced traffic

time savings148.50000000090609,83010,66511,57212,55613,62314,44015,30716,22517,19918,23018,77719,34119,92120,51924,30425,03325,78426,55827,35528,17529,02129,89130,78831,71232,66333,643

add km cost-39.000000000-3417-3,571-3,732-3,900-4,075-4,258-4,450-4,584-4,721-4,863-5,009-5,159-5,262-5,367-5,475-5,584-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696-5,696

Externalities


CO, Nox, particles72.9000000006,3826,6706,9707,2837,6117,9548,3118,5618,8189,0829,3559,6359,82810,02410,22510,42910,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,63810,638

CO219.9000000002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400

Saved ferry subsidies1112.400000000101,209101,209101,209101,209101,209101,209149,709149,709149,709149,709149,709148,662148,662148,662148,662148,662153,923153,923153,923153,923153,923159,938159,938159,938159,938159,938229,02600000


SUM

236.6

0236.60000-604,800-915,840-924,480-616,320156,511165,150172,354179,860187,688195,860250,657254,762259,042263,505268,161260,783265,131269,618274,249282,198305,542311,864318,375325,082331,990334,480341,808349,357357,132365,1402,587,476

Interne Rente % p.a6.7%


Increasestraffic+income

4%5.5%



2%3.00%In Saaremaa

3700027172801000 EEK0

0.5%ekstra135861000 EEK

1.58

3.9%

Increased traffic

growth 2005-2010

2011-20155.5%

2016-20204.5%

2021-20253.0%

2026-20302.0%

&L&D&T&C&F

Tunnel_D&B

Tunnel, Drill & BlastCentral

Route III8520


Tunnel, Drill & Blast5,520

Factor1.15





O & M costs63.0%3.0%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%

Rate of interest in calculations10.0%

NPV mill EEK20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Total investment cost-3,1820000-1,163,400-1,761,720-1,778,340-1,185,560

Residual value147.30000000000000000000000000000004140000


Time savings486.00000000072,79278,97983,71888,74194,06699,710105,692108,863112,129115,493118,957122,526126,202129,988133,888137,904163,348168,248173,295178,494183,849189,365195,046200,897206,924213,132219,525

add km -cost-194.900000000-33,003-34,488-36,040-37,662-39,357-41,128-42,978-44,268-45,596-46,964-48,373-49,824-50,820-51,837-52,873-53,931-63,261-63,893-64,532-65,178-65,829-66,488-67,153-67,824-68,502-69,187-69,879

Induced traffic

time savings69.70000000090609,83010,66511,57212,55613,62314,44015,30716,22517,19918,23018,77719,34119,92120,51924,30425,03325,78426,55827,35528,17529,02129,89130,78831,71232,66333,643

add km cost-19.600000000-3417-3,571-3,732-3,900-4,075-4,258-4,450-4,584-4,721-4,863-5,009-5,159-5,262-5,367-5,475-5,584-5,696-5,753-5,810-5,868-5,927-5,986-6,046-6,107-6,168-6,229-6,292

Externalities


CO, Nox, particles36.6000000006,3826,6706,9707,2837,6117,9548,3118,5618,8189,0829,3559,6359,82810,02410,22510,42910,63810,74410,85210,96011,07011,18111,29311,40511,52011,63511,751

CO210.3000000002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400

Saved ferry subsidy552.800000000101,209101,209101,209101,209101,209101,209149,709149,709149,709149,709149,709148,662148,662148,662148,662148,662153,923153,923153,923153,923153,923159,938159,938159,938159,938159,938229,02600000


SUM-2696.5

'NPV-2696.50000-1,163,400-1,761,720-1,778,340-1,185,5609,50018,13925,34432,84940,67748,849103,647107,752112,03190,31594,97098,233102,580107,067111,698119,648142,992148,730154,652160,764167,071179,594186,310193,239200,389207,7664,424,464

IRR %0.9%


increasetraffic

4%5.5%



2%3.00%In Saaremaa

3700027172801000 EEK0

0.5%ekstra135861000 EEK

1.58

3.9%

5.5%

4.5%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

Tunnel_TBM

Tunnel, TBMCentral

Route III8575


Tunnel, TBM6,120

Factor1.15





O & M costs2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%


NPV mill EEK20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040


Residual value597.20000000000000000000000000000004590000


Time savings1016.60000000072,79278,97983,71888,74194,06699,710105,692108,863112,129115,493118,957122,526126,202129,988133,888137,904163,348168,248173,295178,494183,849189,365195,046200,897206,924213,132219,525

add km -cost-398.700000000-33,003-34,488-36,040-37,662-39,357-41,128-42,978-44,268-45,596-46,964-48,373-49,824-50,820-51,837-52,873-53,931-63,261-63,893-64,532-65,178-65,829-66,488-67,153-67,824-68,502-69,187-69,879

Induced traffic

time savings148.50000000090609,83010,66511,57212,55613,62314,44015,30716,22517,19918,23018,77719,34119,92120,51924,30425,03325,78426,55827,35528,17529,02129,89130,78831,71232,66333,643

add km cost-39.500000000-3417-3,571-3,732-3,900-4,075-4,258-4,450-4,584-4,721-4,863-5,009-5,159-5,262-5,367-5,475-5,584-5,696-5,753-5,810-5,868-5,927-5,986-6,046-6,107-6,168-6,229-6,292

Externalities


CO, Nox, particles73.9000000006,3826,6706,9707,2837,6117,9548,3118,5618,8189,0829,3559,6359,82810,02410,22510,42910,63810,74410,85210,96011,07011,18111,29311,40511,52011,63511,751

CO219.9000000002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400



SUM-3009.8

'NPV-3009.80000-1,289,400-1,952,520-1,970,940-1,313,96022,31730,95638,16145,66653,49461,666116,464120,569124,848100,427105,082108,345112,692117,179121,810129,760153,104158,842164,764170,876177,183189,706196,422203,351210,501217,8784,884,576

IRR %0.9%


increasetraffic

4%5.5%



2%3.00%In Saaremaa

3700027172801000 EEK0

0.5%ekstra135861000 EEK

1.58

3.9%

5.5%

4.5%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

D&B_short

Tunnel, Drill & Blast, shortCentral

Route III

Investment costMill. EEKCost factor1.000


SHORT Tunnel1kmFactor1.15


Total inv. costs4,908

Total length to drive10.0km

O & M costs2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%


NPV mill EEK20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Total investment cost-3,3670000-981,600-1,472,400-1,472,400-981,600

Residual value477.00000000000000000000000000000003666000


Time savings1016.60000000072,79278,97983,71888,74194,06699,710105,692108,863112,129115,493118,957122,526126,202129,988133,888137,904163,348168,248173,295178,494183,849189,365195,046200,897206,924213,132219,525

add km -cost-398.700000000-33,003-34,488-36,040-37,662-39,357-41,128-42,978-44,268-45,596-46,964-48,373-49,824-50,820-51,837-52,873-53,931-63,261-63,893-64,532-65,178-65,829-66,488-67,153-67,824-68,502-69,187-69,879

Induced traffic

time savings148.50000000090609,83010,66511,57212,55613,62314,44015,30716,22517,19918,23018,77719,34119,92120,51924,30425,03325,78426,55827,35528,17529,02129,89130,78831,71232,66333,643

add km cost-39.500000000-3417-3,571-3,732-3,900-4,075-4,258-4,450-4,584-4,721-4,863-5,009-5,159-5,262-5,367-5,475-5,584-5,696-5,753-5,810-5,868-5,927-5,986-6,046-6,107-6,168-6,229-6,292

Externalities


CO, Nox, particles73.9000000006,3826,6706,9707,2837,6117,9548,3118,5618,8189,0829,3559,6359,82810,02410,22510,42910,63810,74410,85210,96011,07011,18111,29311,40511,52011,63511,751

CO219.9000000002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400



SUM-1825.9

'NPV-1825.90000-981,600-1,472,400-1,472,400-981,60043,75052,38959,59467,09974,92783,099137,897142,002146,281126,305130,960134,223138,570143,057147,688155,638178,982184,720190,642196,754203,061215,584222,300229,229236,379243,7563,986,454

IRR %2.1%


Real salaryincreasetraffic

growth 2005-20104%5.5%

2011-20154%8.5%Economic growthEUREEK

2016-20203%6.0%GDP per capita, Estonia480073440per capita

2021-20302%3.00%In Saaremaa

3700027172801000 EEK0

0.5%ekstra135861000 EEK

Beregnet stigning1.58

gns rlig3.9%

Increased traffic

growth 2005-2010

2011-20155.5%

2016-20204.5%

2021-20253.0%

2026-20302.0%

2031-20401.0%

TBM_short

Tunnel, TBM, shortCentral

Route III

Investment costMill. EEKCost factor1.000


1kmFactor1.15



6.67km1200.6'000 EEK

Total length to drive10.0km732m EEK

O & M costs2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%


NPV mill EEK20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040


Residual value515.20000000000000000000000000000003960000


Time savings1016.60000000072,79278,97983,71888,74194,06699,710105,692108,863112,129115,493118,957122,526126,202129,988133,888137,904163,348168,248173,295178,494183,849189,365195,046200,897206,924213,132219,525

add km -cost-398.700000000-33,003-34,488-36,040-37,662-39,357-41,128-42,978-44,268-45,596-46,964-48,373-49,824-50,820-51,837-52,873-53,931-63,261-63,893-64,532-65,178-65,829-66,488-67,153-67,824-68,502-69,187-69,879

Induced traffic

time savings148.50000000090609,83010,66511,57212,55613,62314,44015,30716,22517,19918,23018,77719,34119,92120,51924,30425,03325,78426,55827,35528,17529,02129,89130,78831,71232,66333,643

add km cost-39.500000000-3417-3,571-3,732-3,900-4,075-4,258-4,450-4,584-4,721-4,863-5,009-5,159-5,262-5,367-5,475-5,584-5,696-5,753-5,810-5,868-5,927-5,986-6,046-6,107-6,168-6,229-6,292

Externalities


CO, Nox, particles73.9000000006,3826,6706,9707,2837,6117,9548,3118,5618,8189,0829,3559,6359,82810,02410,22510,42910,63810,74410,85210,96011,07011,18111,29311,40511,52011,63511,751

CO219.9000000002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400



SUM-2145.6

'NPV-2145.60000-1,060,000-1,590,000-1,590,000-1,060,00033,95042,58949,79457,29965,12773,299128,097132,202136,481114,545119,200122,463126,810131,297135,928143,878167,222172,960178,882184,994191,301203,824210,540217,469224,619231,9964,268,694

IRR %1.7%

NPV construc. cost-3,635

Real salaryincreasetraffic

growth 2005-20104%5.5%

2011-20154%8.5%Economic growthEUREEK

2016-20203%6.0%GDP per capita, Estonia480073440per capita

2021-20302%3.00%In Saaremaa

3700027172801000 EEK0

0.5%ekstra135861000 EEK


gns rlig3.9%

Increased traffic

growth 2005-2010

2011-20155.5%

2016-20204.5%

2021-20253.0%

2026-20302.0%

2031-20401.0%

Time_savings

Unit costs , based on

EEK

2003200420052006-10

GDP real growth5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%

persons/vehicl

Time valuesCarsvansbusestrucks

Pass/vehicle2.51.8251.3

Avg/vehicle55.689.8682.3164HUSK waiting time factor 1.2!!!

Per hours commercial89

Per hours com 2014126.3

Hourly cost, 20057500EEK/month

Per hour 200546.9EEK per hr

Per hour 201466.7

all trips 200515.6EEK per hr

all trips 201422.2

Cars/vansBusesLorries

Distribution of vehiclesYear 201688%0%4%8%Check,sum615,722incl 5% com trips

AADT 20131745153607014017451687per day

Savings per per tripminutes

Existing crossing time353535Waiting time factor1.2

waiting time25

Summer, waiting502732all year

non-summer3525

Pct.

Distribution of traffic

Summer, waiting

non-summer

Driving time, bridge+ extra rd112014 values

Time savings incl.fact.1.2Distrib'000 EEKper vehicper yearInduced42

Carsminutes000 EEK

Summer8450%21814EEKtraffic x0.533

Non-summer6650%171391000 EEKAVG75

Cars all trips one year3895369.538,9538,972

Time savings buses56.4100%16339641.316,33957

Time savings trucks62.4100%8701170.88,70130

Value of timesavings all vehicles63,9939060

2014 level

Induced traffic

per hourPer vehicper year

Capcity cost buses per hour56.4106992,529

capacity cost lorries per hour62.41181236,270

8,799

Saved time and capacity cost72,792

waiting_time

Virtsu -KuivastuAvg

Waiting timeSummer weekendsbookedunbooked

Waiting time30125

Crossing time =waiting time + 35 minutesTransfer time3535

Main flow105Total time65160

Minor flow6570%30%Total

CarsAVG45.54893.5

Number of vehicles/day18001600

Directional flow75%25%

AVG crossing+ waiting time95

Ferry time35

summerWeekendsnormal daysAVGWaiting time40%

Cars95758550

buses70606530

other75657035

Non-summer monthsmin

Weekendsnormal daysAVGWaiting time60%

Cars75657035

buses65556025

lorries70606530

Capacity cost

Kilometr cost, 2003,EEK/km

IRISAPAVAAB (bus??)AR (Trucks??)

mm/mCarTimeTotalVehicleTimeTotalVehicleTimeTotalTime cost driver

13.130.083.2111.451.1412.5916.070.7716.8437.5

23.140.083.2211.471.1412.6116.140.7716.9140000km /year

33.150.083.2311.571.1412.7116.30.7817.0820Capacity cost

43.270.093.3612.321.1413.4617.30.7818.08

53.390.093.4813.061.1514.2118.280.7919.07

63.520.093.6113.721.1814.919.130.8219.95Bus cost EEK

73.660.093.7514.331.2415.5719.910.8820.79New bus1,500,00013years

83.80.13.914.911.3216.2320.680.9821.66-211,1681 year

106EEK per hpur

LorryLorry

1,800,00015years

-236,6531 year

118EEK per hpur

Discription of vehickles

SAPAVehickles less 6 m

Cars and vans 94%

Small buses 2,5%

Small lorries 3,5%

VAABVehickles 6-12 m

Lorries 77%

Buses 23%

ARVehickles over 12 m

Lorries or car trains 95%

Big buses 5%

Capacity cost

3.2112.5916.84

3.2212.6116.91

3.2312.7117.08

3.3613.4618.08

3.4814.2119.07

3.6114.919.95

3.7515.5720.79

3.916.2321.66

SAPA

VAAB (bus??)

AR (Trucks??)

IRI, mm/m

kr.-/km

Add_km

Year 2014 figures

EEK 1000per vehicInduced

Km extraBridgeLand sideTotal1000 EEKekstra km cost

6.503.7010.201000 EEK

Vehicles1536

Km cost, cars3.520,01013.033,001

Buses70

Km cost, buses14.03,63852.12181.91

Lorries140

Km cost, lorries18.09,35567.01233.88

Total ekstra cost for additional km33,0033,417

Excluding time

Capacity cost

Excl drivers time

Driver time cost

+ capacity cost

Source: VOC data from Technical Centre

Traffic_growth

Yearly traffic growth rates

88%4%8%Distribution 2016

Traffic240521131071857Per day

Central scenarioAADTCars/vanBusesLorriesGnsGen growth2004378000Abolishing

YearTotal86%5%9%factor/yearCarsbusestrucks20053987901093

200511705.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%

201015295.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%

201115984.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%

201216704.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%5%

201317454.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%AHAA effekt+10% cars

201418244.5%

Op effect201422331960100172122.5%25.0%10.0%5.0%curiosity trips90

2015242321391041804.5%4.5%4.0%4.5%curiosity trips90

2016240521131071853.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%Negative curiosity trips 90

2017247721761101913.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

2018255022411121973.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

2019262623091152033.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

2020270523781182093.0%3.0%2.5%3.0%

20212.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20222.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20232.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

20242.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%

2025298326251272302.0%2.0%1.5%2.0%298301.10408080322.00%

20261.0%Commercial trips5%

20271.0%according to Hillar Varik about 5-6%

20281.0%

2029310427321322401.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%%5 more trip

Abolishing toll

2030395535511522521.0%30%15.0%5.0%Loading capacity rate avg55%

20311.0%

20321.0%

20331.0%

20341.0%

20351.0%

20361.0%

20371.0%

20381.0%

20391.0%

2040436939231682781.0%

&L&F&D

Accidents

1000 EEK200320052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Cost per fatality14,40814,84015,28515,74416,21616,70317,20417,72018,25218,79919,36319,94420,54221,15921,79322,44723,12123,81424,52925,26526,02226,80327,60728,43529,28830,167

Benefits0.568068.488,3118,5608,8179,0819,3549,6349,92310,22110,52810,84311,16911,50411,84912,20412,57012,94813,33613,73614,14814,57315,01015,46015,92416,40216,894

Cost serious injured

Antal0.700.500.520.530.550.560.580.600.610.500.500.500.500.500.510.520.530.540.550.570.580.6

vkst3.0%

Value of saved acc0.011,3518,3518,8609,4009,97210,57911,22411,90712,63210,57910,89711,22411,56011,90712,51013,13813,79214,47415,18416,20816,98718,100

Uheld 20080.3

Unit_costs

Unit cost , based on

2003200420052006-10

GDP real growth5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%

persons/vehicl

Time valuesCarsvansbusestrucks

Pass/vehicle2.51.7251.6

Avg/vehicle39.149.9453.099.75

Per hours commercial62

Other trips22.2

Hourly cost7500EEK/month

Per hour46.875

all trips15.6EEK per hr2005 level

all trips 2014 level22.2EEK per hr

In 2005 level

In 2010 level0.00

Beregning0.001.7926.250.00

Km omk, 20031.891.553.011.94

Km omk, 20051.981.633.162.04

Graph

Year2000200120022003200520062010201420202025203020352040

Total cost64.966.279.881.1108.5111.6185.6194.7261.3271.9283.5296.0372.1

Ticket income42.345.649.153.260.063.378.493.5111.6123.2129.5136.1143.1

Subsidy22.620.630.727.948.548.3107.2101.2149.7148.7154.0159.9229.0

Graph

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Ticket income

Subsidy

Graph2

Year2000200120022003200520062010201420202025203020352040

Kogukulu64.966.279.881.1108.5111.6185.6194.7261.3271.9283.5296.0372.1

Tulu piletimgist42.345.649.153.260.063.378.493.5111.6123.2129.5136.1143.1

Dotatsioon22.620.630.727.948.548.3107.2101.2149.7148.7154.0159.9229.0

Graph2

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

Kogukulu

Tulu piletimgist

Dotatsioon

Year

Mill. EEK

Ferry Cost and Subsidy

Ferry cost_sub

Ferry cost MediumC.

1000 EEK

1998199920002001200220032005 Est.20062010201420202025203020352040

3 ferries4 ferries5 ferries

Cost46,53856,37564,90266,22779,84381,113101,391

here off fuel19%11,86210,98313,85726,40027,72037,06338,56845,03547,33249,74752,28460,446

Repair cost12%12,16712,16718,25018,25024,27324,27324,27324,27330,341

Salaries and admin cost incl soc tax26%26,36227,68044,74852,34979,48587,75896,892106,977141,733

Port fees15%15,20915,66530,08030,08030,08030,08030,08030,08030,080

Insurance3%3,0423,0424,5634,5636,0686,0686,0686,0687,585

Depreciation and lease20%20,27820,27843,27843,27866,27866,27866,27866,27889,278

Other5%5,0705,0707,6047,60410,11410,11410,11410,11412,642

100%

Total cost46,53856,37564,90266,22779,84381,113108,527111,621185,586194,692261,333271,903283,452296,074372,106

Piletitulu3279335,54042,33745,58849,09553,23359,98063,27978,39193,483111,624123,242129,528136,136143,080

Dotatsioon13,74520,83522,56520,63930,74827,88048,54748,342107,195101,209149,709148,662153,923159,938229,026

Subsidy as percentage of total cost30%37%35%31%39%34%45%43%58%52%57%55%54%54%62%

Vehicles per year excluding commercial trips 1)273,000283,400285,853307,733349,242357,004398,577420,499520,924621,212741,759818,962860,737904,644950,790

AADT, on scheduled trips748776783843957978109211521427170220322244235824782605

AVG cost per vehicle EEK170199227215229227272265356313352332329327391

AVG income per vehicle EEK120125148148141149150150150150150150150150150

Subsidy per vehicle, EEK507479678878122115206163202182179177241

Growth factor, revenue

2005-20105.50%

2011-20154.50%Note: the number of trips included commercial trips. The number of vehicle crossing on the scheduled trips is about 5% lower.

2016-20203.00%The subsidy is based on scheduled trips.

2021-20252.00%Year

2026-20401.00%20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

NPV total cost200000000195204213223234245261264267269272272275277280283283286289292295296299302305308372

Interest rate6%2,264

NPV(ferry cost)2014-20202021-20302031-2040

Growth factors2005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-2030Average growth in ferry cost4.7%1.0%1.0%

vehicle %0.0550.0450.030.010.01

Ticket income00000

Capacity increase compared to 20032000

Ilmar Pihlak

Cost:

Salaries54967223.2258520912

Social tax18142384.0850974697

Fuel695013857

Repair cost546710359.6416687697

Port fee755114308.6984161112

Insurance10211934.7346156601

Other expenss600711382.9097319004

Amortisation849116089.9428223018

Finance exp2769

Finance result-2762

Operating cost4280477540.2382043042

Factor from

Cost escalating factors1998199920002001200220031998-2003

General1.31426962370.090.0430.0530.0580.0440.0241.3142696237

Salaries1.89494085760.150.0860.1140.1270.1140.1071.8949408576

Fuel

&LFerry_cost

Ferry cost NPV

Ferry cost

1000 EEK

2005 Est.200620062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043

2 ferries3 feries4 feries5 ferriesPct.

Cost101,391

here off fuel21,00022,982

Repair cost12,16715,437

Salaries and admin costincl soc tax26,36234,600

Port fees15,20920,532

Insurance3,0424,563

Depreciation and lease20,27828,243

Other5,0706,337

185,586190,226194,982199,856

Total cost103,127132,69200000000194,692199,559204,548209,662214,904220,276261,333263,947266,586269,252271,944271,903274,622277,369280,142282,944283,452286,286289,149292,041294,961296,074299,035302,025305,045308,096372,106375,827379,586383,381

Increase

AVG annual increase

Annual growth in total cost without an extra ferry2.50%

Annual growth in total cost without an extra ferry1%

NPV total cost2,102bn EEK

Interest rate6%

Growth factors

vehicle %

Ticket income

Capacity increase compared to 2003

Ticket income

Ticket income

EEK*+ ResAVG totalDistribReduced fares 50%

Cars 2.5 persons1705018085%153136.1723%

Buses 217307305%36.532.485

lorry small155601674%6.686.68

lorry huge 11m3501653836%22.9822.98

219.16198.315

Income from tickets

2004based on report to the ministryNumber of

Tick pass+ vehiclesBooking feesTotalvehiclesAVG income

per vehicle

1. quarter6766523728958023125.6225979353

2. quarter1472979315522101252153.3006755422

3. quarter 1-32059197521566135742158.8749244891

4. quarter9255599.19854.182781119.0381850908

54231377798143.5452278731

5.5%57,214commercial trips

+2004>200560,0752005 ticekt income

Source: Info from Shipping company to MoEAC5%

5.5%

54,231

57,214

Ticket incomefor 2005 of 59980EEK has been based on unit income of 150EEK per vehicle

Environment

Saaremaa

Environmental aspectsAntaget rlig vkst1.8%jf. Ngletals katalog side 5

Savings

quantitiesVrdiVrdiTrafikarb.410362km

201420162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020052003Vrdi r 2018

Changes per yearper enhedper enhed

CO20000000000000000135.2130kr/ton04,493,464kr34565tons CO2

Omkostning, 1000 kr.Value/tonnes0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

EEK

CO, tons28474747460.1300000000000-0.4914.714kr/ton-2122.88

Nox, tons30,000210209207.91206.870.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.001560015000kr/ton0

SO2, tons68,0000.010.013536034000kr/ton-204

Partikler3,00027-0.05-0.041569.361509kr/ton78

88.37107.1

Value of CO, Nox, HC particles6,3823,2603,2433,2270000000000000

in 1000 EEK

r 2005r 2003

02423210000000000006345058871per SBT0

0

01,5231,4591,3320000000000000

18

per year

per triptonnes

Fuel emissionsgram11000Saved

Stigning i emissioner per dgnNOX20000220209.87I alt0

Beregnet gns rlig stigningHC140015.413.83

2008- 201820082018CO50005547.09ADT 20142100

Particles250027.527.00Per yeartonnes

Stigning0.00Nox/kmHC/kmCO/kmParticles/kmNoxHCCOParticles

Beregnet stigning0.95Diesel lorries8.001.25.000.505.520.833.450.34

gns rlig-0.5%Diesel buses8.001.104.000.363.070.421.530.14

Cars gasoline0.200.050.501.170.292.910.00

cars diesel0.500.040.020.020.380.030.020.02

2018-203010.131.577.910.50

Stigning1.2119497567


gns rlig1.6%

Stj -SBT

Beregnet gns rlig stigning

2008- 201820082018

Stigning0.00


gns rlig2.0%

2018-2030

Stigning0.00


gns rlig7.0%

TAGASIMAKSMISAASTAVLA TAGASIMAKSEPERIOOD RIIKLIK TOETUSmln. kr.

PSIHENDUSE KESKKONNAMJUlindudele ja Vinamere looduskaitsealadele sh Natura 2000 aladeleSuure vina veevahetuselemereelustikule - kalad (eriti rnne) ja hlged

kaldaprotsessidele ehitusaegsed mjud psihenduse kasutamisaegsed sotsiaalsed ja kultuurilised mjud

Sgis 2005 - Saaremaa psihenduse finants- majanduslikud ja keskkonnaalased uuringud 10.03.06 - VV korraldus nr.170 Sitjate ja veoste le Suure vina veo perspektiivse korraldamise kava koostamiseks ja KSH lbiviimiseks04.09.06 - MKM kskkiri Kava KSH algatamise kohta Nov-dets.06 - Asutuste ja organisatsioonide seisukohad KSH programmi kohtaJaan-veebr.2007 - KSH programmi avalikustamine Veebr.2007 - KSH programmi tiendamine

Sitjate ja veoste le suure vina veo perspektiivse korraldamise kavaEESMRK - vrrelda erinevaid liiklusviise le Suure vina ja hinnata nende majanduslikke, sotsiaalseid, kultuurilisi ja keskkonnamjusid ning vlja selgitada sobivaim liiklushendusviis koos rahastamisskeemiga

Sitjate ja veoste le suure vina veo perspektiivse korraldamise kavaKava iguslik staatusAnalsitakse olemasolevat olukordaLiikluse prognoosTeiste maade kogemusedErinevate Suure vina letusvimaluste kirjeldusTranspordivoo mju regiooni looduslikele. sotsiaalsetele, majanduslikele ja kultuurilistele aspektideleLiiklushendusviiside mju mbritsevale keskkonnaleRakendusplaan sh. meetmed. ressursid, juhtimisstruktuur

KSH PROGRAMMKSH eesmrgiks on Kava elluviimisega kaasnevate keskkonnamjude prognoosimine ja hindamine, alternatiivide kirjeldamine ja hindamine, positiivsete mjude (hinnatavate alternatiivide eeliste) vljatoomine ning vimalike negatiivsete mjude vltimise ja leevendamise meetmete kavandamine, et tagada keskkonnakaalutluste integreerimine Kavasse.

VTMEKSIMUSEDLooduskeskkond - Natura 2000 ala ? - Kuidas kaitsta mjualal esinevaid EL Nukogu direktiivi 92/43/EM looduslike elupaikade ning loodusliku taimestiku ja loomastiku kaitse kohta thenduses esmathtsaid looduslikke elupaigatpe ja esmathtsaid liike ? - Milline on Muhu ja Saaremaa looduskeskkonna koormustaluvus ?

VTMEKSIMUSEDMillised on sotsiaalsed ja kultuurilised mjud? sh: - elutingimustele ? - rahvastiku arengule ?

JRGNEVAD TEGEVUSEDKSH programmi tiendamine - 02/07KSH programmi heakskiitmine KKM poolt - 03/07 Kava koostamise ja KSH riigihange - 03/07Kava koostamine ja KSH lbiviimine - 07/07-07/08Kava kinnitamine VV poolt - 09/08vs

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SAAREMAA PÜSIÜHENDUS