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Session: Global Business Megatrends

Presenter: Uschi Schreiber I EYMonday, 9 May 2016 | 10:00

会议：全球商业大趋势2016年5月9日星期一 | 10:00 讲者：Uschi Schreiber | EY

강연주제: 글로벌비즈니스메가트렌드2016년 5월 9일월요일오전 10:00연사: Uschi Schreiber | EY

Megatrends 2016

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Technology Business modelsValue networks

Business innovation Business modelsValue networks

Macroeconomic trendsDemographic shifts

GlobalizationPublic policy

Regulatory frameworksPublic policy regimesSocial compactsForms of governmentRoles of citizens

The disruptors The disrupted

How big is your iceberg?An expanded understanding of disruption

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DisruptionFrom primary forces to megatrends

Age of discovery Colonialism Bretton Woods trade liberalization East Asian NICs China/India/Brazil Latin America/Africa

Industrial revolution Information technology Mainframes PCs Online (Web) Social Mobile Smart IoT Virtual reality AI Robotics

Demographics is destiny Post-WWII “baby boom” China “One Child” Policy Millennial workforce Urbanization Aging West Global Migration Young India/Africa

3Three primary forces…• Long-term, multiple waves• Independent variables• Interact and catalyze each other

Demographics

Technology

Globalization

…are driving multiple megatrends• Cohesive narratives with significant interplay • Driven by interaction between the next waves of

technology, globalization and demographics

1. Industry redefinedIs every industry now your industry?

2. The future of smartWhat intelligence will we need to create a smart future?

3. The future of workWhen machines become workers, what is the human role?

4. Behavioral revolutionHow will individual behavior impact our collective futurer

5. Empowered customerHow will you change buyersinto stakeholders?

6. Urban worldIn a fast changing world, can cities be built with long-term perspective?

7. Health reimaginedWith growing health needs, is digital the best medicine?

8. Resourceful planetCan innovation make the planet resource rich instead of resource scarce?

9. Future Megatrend 10. Future Megatrend

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Industry redefinedIs every industry your industry?

Why is this happening?• Disruption blurs industry boundaries when:

• Digital lowers entry barriers• Empowered customers become

co-creators, catalyze change• Large, collective-action challenges

(chronic disease, climate change) attract nontraditional entrants

Better questions• Do you understand who your competitors

are — and would your customers agree?• What will you do alone and what will

you do as part of an ecosystem?• Will tomorrow’s economies still be

comprised of industries?

Banking industry? Or payments industry?

Pharmacy industry? Or wellness industry?

Automotive industry? Or mobility industry?

Google’s driverless cars log 10–15,000 milesper week

Drug store chain CVS reinventing itself with

1,150 health clinics

5 Indian telecom companies licensed to launch payment banks

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The future of smartWhat intelligence will we need to create a smart future?

Why is this happening?• Governments and organizations need more

sustainable solutions:• Globalization and demographics

(urbanization, aging) are increasing resource pressures

• Technology: the next wave of digital disruption (artificial intelligence,robotics, internet of things) is creating smart solutions

Better questions• When AI controls decisions, who will control

your company?• How does smart make you more efficient

and more productive?

Could smart optimize electric grids?

Could smart free human labor for higher use?

Could smart make urbanization sustainable?

Smart meters raise data points per household from 4 to 35,000per year

Smart cities will have 7.5 billionconnected things by 2020

Autonomous vehicles could free up50 billion hoursfor US drivers per year

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The future of workWhen machines become workers, what is the human role?

Why is this happening?• Next waves of globalization and

technology (AI, robotics, IoT, sharing economy, etc.) will drive unprecedented labor displacement

• White collar and creative work arenot immune

• The “gig economy” will be followed by the “machine economy”

• Automation replaces and supplementslabor; work unbundled into tasks

Better questions• With massive labor displacement ahead,

how will we address income inequality?• How will workers and citizens be motivated

in the machine economy?• How will governments need to adapt to

remain relevant for the future of work?

Could we free people for higher pursuits?

Will gig workers get employee benefits?

How will AI reshape the fabric of society?

40% of US workers independent contractorsby 2020

Fears aboutartificial intelligence on the rise

Net loss of

5.1 million jobsby 2020(WEF, 15 major economies)

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Behavioral revolutionHow will individual behavior impact our collective future?

Why is this happening?• Increasingly urgent behavioral challenges

(chronic disease, climate change, savings gap) exacerbated by demographicsand globalization

• Digital revolution catalyzing deployment of behavioral economics:• IoT: real-time interventions• Social media: gamification• Online: rapid A/B testing

Better questions• How will societies improve collective

behaviors without restrictingindividual freedoms?

• How can organizations be motivated to focus on the long term?

• How will we nudge people to adopt better behaviors — for the rest of their lives?

Why don’t we eat healthy and exercise?

Why don’t we respond to this existential threat?

Why don’t we save enough for tomorrow?

Cumulative global cost of climate change:US$44 trillionby 2060

US retirementsavings gap:US$14 trillion

Cumulative global cost of chronic disease:US$47 trillion2010—2030

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Empowered customerHow will you change buyers into stakeholders?

Why is this happening?• Digital is empowering customers:

• They expect to be engaged in theirfull complexity

• They are becoming co-creators• They trust each other more than

corporate marketing• Companies are using new platforms and

approaches to engage using customization and experiences

Better questions• Power has shifted to customers; what will

they do with it next?• When experiences trump things, how will

you delight your customers?• What can you offer the customer that has

it all?• When you can go over-the-top to your

customers, how will it change yourvalue chain?

How are you engaging millennials in new ways?

How are you using the power of experience?

How are you co-creating with customers?

Levis and Mercedes-Benz use social media to engage with young “influencers”

Invention and crowdfunding platforms are democratizing innovation

GE uses virtual reality to demonstrate deep sea drilling equipment toB2B customers

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Will we become citizens of cities, not nations?

Urban worldIn a fast changing world, can cities be built with long-term perspective?

Why is this happening?• Demographic pressures, climate change,

etc. creating demand for sustainable, resilient urban growth

• Smart technologies enabling sustainable approaches

• Growing urban inequality driving inclusive urbanization paradigms

• Cities growing as powerful as nations on global challenges (climate change)

Better questions• Amid rising income inequality, how can

urban growth be more inclusive?• How can cities be made resilient to future

known and unknown stressors?• New cities are built with “brains”; how will

they develop hearts and souls?• How will the public and private sector co-

author this century’s urban story?

How will megacities grow sustainably?

How can cities learn from each other?

By 2050, two-thirds of global population willbe urban(1950: 33%; 2008: 50%)

Number of megacities worldwide:41 by 2030(23 today; 2 in 1970)

Cities such as London, Singapore, Medellin taking holistic and inclusive approaches to urban planning

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Health reimaginedWith growing health needs, is digital the best medicine?

Why is this happening?• The search for economic sustainability is

being exacerbated by demographicsand globalization

• Digital health (apps, wearables, social media, big data, analytics) is enabling cost-effective solutions

• The next waves of digital (AI, sensors, real-world analytics, sharing economy) will be even more game changing

Better questions• When algorithms prescribe and diagnose,

how will providers adapt?• In a world of fragmented health data, how

do we see the big picture?• How do we incentivize the long-term

behavioral changes needed to tackle chronic disease?

How will you use big data to improve outcomes?

How do we motivate healthy behaviors?

How do we get to mainstream adoption?

Size of global health data2.3 trillion billion GBby 2020 (48% CAGR)

Cumulative global cost of chronic disease:US$47 trillion2010—2030

Number of mobile health apps doubledin 2015 to165,000

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Resourceful planetCan innovation make the planet resource rich instead of resource scarce?

Why is this happening?• Demographics and globalization are

pressuring resources as never before• Growing political will (e.g., COP 21)• Renewables are the fastest growing energy

source; natural gas the only fossil fuel gaining share

• Global utility market reforms• Corporates adopt renewables and IoT• New business models create resource

efficient, low carbon value streams

Better questions• How will we link prosperity and

sustainability?• Can business disruption also address

climate disruption?• How is climate purpose reflected in your

corporate purpose?• Who is your Chief Resources Officer?

How will new technologies drive resource efficiency?

Which resource industry will be disrupted next?

How can we spur the right market responses?

Unchecked climate change will cause a 23% reduction in global incomes by 2100

By 2035, coal provides less than 25% of primary energy—lowest since the First Industrial Revolution

IoT and AI are bringing the Fourth Industrial Revolution to resources

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