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aamaa qq DMLASIOW SIHHM ?SIHTTAM YHMOM 8300 ña urlot ioqs nthoW HDSJAH2HSI DIMOMODH '1O UAHSJUH JAMOITAM oun3vA aitoaurlosaasM OO I 8EIO AM oabiidm&J VQQI1sM CIOIaSMOM nooiO JJYM rnoiaowrIhoM nianooiW Is alnsqioihsq qorla±ow atsili iothus 3fiT MidmuloD quoiD aoimono33 '(IsionoM SEEM oth bmoFI o'n3aoM !siob&1 rft bnsIxisM 8rlT .2tri8mmoo Iffiqiorl iof ataimonooH inornfrlovoD ioi Voioo2 oth bus aniAqofl andot nwoiogiooD a'SI3HMIo tisq ai ioqsq aidT .noilsbnuol oonoio2 IsnoilsM orb mon txoqqua ao8bolwonts iothus oaoth ion bns iorlflus aritlo oaorli ois boaaoiqxo anoiniqo nA .aoibiil2 iocisJ ni rngoiq rloinoaoi .rloisoao5l oimonooH lo usoiuH IsnoitsM orit lo nm er1qs-igrnsq owl boooxo ot ion txofto 211011302 noul2 .bovrneoi airlgii hA .sorl8 rulot d VQQ 1 © oth oX novi 21 ooiIon © gnthuloni tiboio 11th isifi bobivrnq noiaairrnoq iioiIqxo tuothiw botoup od .o0.uJoa

SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

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Page 1: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

aamaa qq DMLASIOW SIHHM

?SIHTTAM YHMOM 8300

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HDSJAH2HSI DIMOMODH '1O UAHSJUH JAMOITAM oun3vA aitoaurlosaasM OO I

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.o0.uJoa

Page 2: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

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Page 5: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

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Page 6: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

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y (*) qsuoçea aTthJTtTcsuce sç HAG beLceuçs HSøEIu&u oi unj pXboçpeaa oi exoeusç? oi T&çpGL G9LUJIJ2bLe2euç b—A&JilG2 LOIIJ & jq OT OAGLJqGUçflXu LGafLJcçJoua uqsa SL.pIçLSLX GLLOL COA9tTSIJCG niçpru iwrjiea we po cojrnuuabsLGuçpeaGa SIJq SLG opriaç fo pefeLoacGqsaç7cJçX O flhJJCIYOMU LOLW St MGTTOil JJflW9IJ CSbT9 sccnwnIscTou OI cpqeir 3ç9LJq9Lq GLLOL2 LGM0IE2: Ipla bLeaeuça GaçJwflGa o JJG Twbscc ot tSIJGLE, GSLUJIJa

*(0158) *(013S) (0'TaO)qncwfou I'Th1 020Q —0S8 O.IS 010

E&LUT02 *(0021) *(00.11) (0SS.i)21C111 0S.1 0S3S —0S3 00 003

(O023) (OO1't) (0S32)ESLUIIJ2 Q'f0 OS08 —013S 0O0 01'1

(0O32) *(003a) (011a)aicril 0318 0128 —01ST 03S 001

*(003S) *(O03) (0TS'J)0303 0120 —00'tT 01.1 015

uniusii 9t]çsJ jucjnqeq rcjnqeq jea; jG2fx(T—1) uoç XCI—!) MIq HSfl2IIJSIJ

NGSEIILG O 0r2 —-52F2 X(I-T) IMCFflDED--

couc..oIaA1 = DGWOL&bJ.1C + & A1 + Y X +

2JWGa 0J &: FflWGLI2 ELUIUa

lvBr'E ct

Page 54: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

uJçcpeaTU WG b2ID suq fIG tIUSI COJ11WU2 2fJOM2 fIG LS1O 0 scçnj fO GXBGCGquqGbGuqGIJç fIG tOfiLfil C0J1IIJJU 2JJ0M2 fIG SC4?JTJ UFUJJpGL at WSfCG2 02GLAGEfJJGL—cpflq WSCJJG2 aUG onjq GXbGC It 9flJGL2 &uq CjJflqLGU,2 JiTCJC MGLGcp]JqLGU U fIG 891I1G CGaLX fIG fJJJLq COJ11IIIIJ 2J10M2 fIG 1JUpGL at1228) s22UGq f'12 C&çGOLX ff16 2GC0JJq COJIIIJJU 2JJObt2 fIG UflIJJGL at

csf6oLA LILac COJJtJJIJ 2JJ0M2 LJ11IIJJJGL at tSfJGL opaGLAscIaua (onc arUçGLGUGLfraIrnJ u1CJC iugfcpGa LOL G&CJJ uqnafLA' flUIOU OL 'Jap 1022I4olEa: cR12 pIe bLeasuf a ruIoLmcroU oIl fIG tLGdnGUcX at

lop F02GL 128 .15 Pit IT 0.18

JLI S flIITOU 522 18 51 FYI

VII uqnafLGa 838 838 158 1.13 F3'tD9TI8PGL8 QIJJ?:

l'P I'O8GL 15.1 85 10 0.1l

IL S 520 153 3.1 28 F28

\fJJ JUqnafLjGa 830 830 121 521 FQQ

20152 OuIX:

laP Fa3GL 58 51 0.12

IWIOU 202 Tact 22 80 F't3

VII JUqIIEçLJGE 1228 S8'I 'tS't 1•ctà

COAGLUWGUf 100 2

2GLAICG2 521 85 115 F3.1

LIHE 2.1 ITO 11

188 58.1 33 33 FOO

ILSU\caww\ncrIrcTGa 132 82 .1 .1 FOO

wSUntsCcrJLrLI 253 3Q 132 188 1•'tQ

caUacLnCcIaU 1Q'f 158 13 3't 521

WIUIU 12 10 0 I

vLICnIcnLG 153 23 51 2'52

VII pqLGu:

CScGaLA at mdc LSPGL2 pqL6U fr4SfCpG2 Nf Cf1G2 Esf 10

at * at xbGdçeq VC[J9I

CSU EnpL2 BGdflGSf p mcJc3

lVBr'E 2

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MJçJJTIJ £SUITTTGB y (*) qeuoçea 2TUTtTCSUC6 S4 tTAG IDGLGGIJ;peceLaacGqsacTcTcX OI fITJJCUOMU OLW sa I4GJJ S SLPTcLSLX GLL.OL COASLJIJCGTUEcLnIJJGUc JTaa' fSIJcjSLcJ GLLOLE SLG TV bSLGIJ;JJGESE 9IJq SLG LOH2f fOTICOWG Oil JJG !IIIJ91J csbrcsj sccrninisçou OT cpflqrLerY fl2TIJ ASLTOJT2

jjiia bLG2GILp2 &E;TWS;Ga o TWbSCf OiL bsLeuçsy

*(o122) (08o3) (1109) (S125) (F13S)qncsfou 08S8 —0't98 —02S5 —0181 —022,1

ESLVTVa (o0ea) (Octo.x) (O2'i0) (FS.11) (FOOsI)CKTTT OS31 —o309 —F3e1 —o1e3

s(00.\3) (0'ITX) (02T) (FST2) Cr00!)E5LUTJ2 O.SS1 —01Q1 o1e9 —FOOS —0181

*(o03s1) (OSoS) (0&13) (0.IS.1) (0'IQT)dclii 0188 —0SS —00Q2 —08'12 —O'SBS

*(0032) (0SN) (0S8) (0QeO) (0xfe3)MG2 018! —010Q 0101 —o.ioa —osao

HflWSLI csbTcsi ore iuacLnwGJxca ouTA ouTA 0DmcpTTqL' Vii uqnaçLX uou -top roaa

NGS2flLG Osara EaLINVIEC

COIJcLOT2 I I IK = Gusot.sbpJc + S A + y + c

yJpcLusf7AG IU2cLIflJJGUP F72c2

IVBFE Q

Page 56: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

a]IJiticgIJcG gç tIAG bGLCGUpLTIIJJ p2.boçpeaia a GXacUGiX a JsçpGLa GLLJTU2 y (*) qGoçGtLOW S ai aAeLqeufXJu LeaçLJcf7oua 9IJq S flSJTEUJSIJ OICOASLJ&IJCG MIçJJIIJ ISIIJflTG2 jG tIUSI 40 COJJtMIJE bLeasuç fpe b—ASJnsaLOpfla pGçGLaacGqsaçrcrfX at JTIJjCIJOMU tOLUJ 9 MGfl S 9LpLSLX GLLOLqrtGz pX cpijqa GuqeL 3çSiJq9Lq SILOLE SLG Ju bSLGU;JJG2G2 suq SLG

pnzu&u C&bT(&T &ccawarsclau ot cpJqLeW &}JaMTIJ sr COGZLLTCTGJJcB

M01E iw ;SJG bLG2GUçB caçiwsçea at wbscç at bsi.euçsj Jucowe OLI

*(0153) *(0TS2) (0821)qncsçjau 5030 0802 —OTOS OQS 055

ESLUTU2 *(00io) dO Too) (02fl)aTCIlT O2't 0513 —O38 00'12 05Q

*(o0.ia) (0T13) (02Q2)ESLVTU2 0238 crjaa —0330 0005 033

9G2 *(003I) *(00'To) (0538)2JCTIT 0'tOS 0513 —008 0O'18 050

*(003Q) *(008) (OSsfO)91TSL2 MSG2 0300 05T0 —cYOQ2 005 ose

*(0Ts12) *(IYSSO) (0055)qflcSfaU 01.10 —OQ.8 0R3 01T

SLUTU2 *(00QS) sJ008I) (0o.i)31(111 0'NQ 0528 —0001 0R3 ORO

*(ooQ) (008) (0213)ESLU1U2 003 0528 0538 058 0.1

*(0035) (oo'o) (05T8)31c111 032e OTQ —0133 055 0TQ

*(0120) *(0023) (0558)035Q 01Q8 00!2 003 028

3SWJDJG HIIIIJSU CSbTcSI jucnqeq ucjnqeq jea; Lea;JJqLeu1a X(T-1) iiaç X(1-1) MSIq FIsiTauJSu

weare ot—--sa12' x(r-J) rwcrnDED-—

Ea;rwScea at S: 2atja suq DSUP4GL8 ebsrsçeq

IYBFE .1

Page 57: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

ebonasa ss OL JTLfJ.J6L qeç&jeWoLFE: IPTE saçJw9çsa wbscç o bstsuç TUCOWS 015 CJJ7qLGLJ gIJq

IUCOW6 *(ooqi) *(oo22) (0520)akIn 038't oSQa —o•o8 os oreII.JCO]JJG *(0032) *(O0't8) (0523)joçj 0388 0S2 —OOfl 0'tO 0S1

EffLUTU *(0 O'tQ) *(0 02) (0 3'13)

ai'rrr oio oS28 -orn oio use*(0o'ts) *(OOeS) (0333)

E&LIJTIJ2 0'tT OS2S —00S2 002 025

*(ooai) *(0o2) (0S30)3JCTJJ 0332 0508 QUIT 058 038

*(0032) *(OOfl) (OSSÔ)1JnwcsLa 0338 0•S0 oo8 O5'T 0•'18

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0'122 033i —OTN 020 00i

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*(ooee) *(0080) (0't28)EstU1U2 0'121 0S3 002.1 02i 0.10

*(oo33) *(0020) (usIa)21<111 0335 0T8T —05.18 022 005

*(003) *(002S) (QSIS)20152 MS2 0308 0183 —0100 038 01.1

JUCOWG *(003'1) (008) (OS'IO)21<111 0fl.I 0•308 —01S3 082 002'f

IUCOWG *(0033) (00t1) (0S3)OThtsQ 0301 —0028 0.1.8 015

E9LU1U2 *(oo1S) *(002x1) (0332)21<111 omus 052.1 —ooas oeI oss

*(00'13) *(0022) (0338)E&LIJTU2 0'135 0S'18 —005.1 0'12 0•'tI

MSG2 *(0052) *(0033) (0502)21<111 0333 0S0l —053.1 025 005

CPIIqLSU (00S2) (cY03) (0502)VII 0353 0501 —oisq 033 ooa

a&wbIs HITW&U sbç9j ucnqeq ucjnqsq & je2ç jsgJJJJqL5JJ}2 X(1—T) UOf X(1—1) pjsq HnewauNGSBflLS

ora sara x(1—T) Iwcr'nDED—-

afpJsçca OL &: yAGLG JUC0IJJG 0[ p1lq 9Uq abonas

LVBE 8

Page 58: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

lop roaa 0.S0 015

COAGLUWGUI ooe 008

8GLATCG2 030

LIHE 0.0S 0001 018

jLSU2bOLf\flfTJTfiGa 00.i ooe

4sunIscçnLJu 058 0S't

COIJecLflCcTOU 013WTU1L 001 001

yLIcnJfnLG 0•10 003

uqna;LX:

flUTO]J 0S2 01S

ORO

F1ATU JLJ 3oriçp 0Q3 ORQ

r1A1IJ ri' 2WBY 02.1 02sf

bLOcGCcTAG 8GLATCGE 003 003

ESLWGLE ooe OOO

F&POLGL2 GLA1CG MOLJCGL2 0S8 0S.i

QbcLefIAsa 0fl 05S

CLSLcaIUGIJ 8 LOLGIUSU oss 015

2&IGE CIGLTC&T 002 051

3eJJ—1vbJoXeq Bnarueaawsu 0.0'1

yqIJJuJ2fLsçJAG 033 ooe

? jecpiic&j 003 ooa

Qccnb9çrou:

AGSL2 0j qncsfou 85 1535

wouJJJc 02S 02\

sooa

HGSI ioci JUCOIJJG siao' S1à83

BG1 yIJUcT& ESLU1IJa 12'110 T5'I2

ISGST HOØLTX 1QgG 815

AGSL2 I'J aSUJbJG 1100 .185

A&LISPIG Ø9JJG LffcWGLE rqLGIJ

1JeacLTbcvs 2cc1ac1C2 FOM IUCOWG aswbJG

IVBFE

Page 59: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

C0AStJSVCG etiçpixr t91JJTITG2 v' (*) qeuoçea aTIJflTCsUCG LIAG bGLcGuçpeçGLoacsq9açrcTcX at fflJJCLTOMU LOLW 92 MGJJ 92 sLpiçL.&LA GLLOL

C9çGoL2\ Ta 26LA1CG2 GLLOLB StG 715 b9LGuçpeaGa &uq SLG opnaç;JJ&; flJG caGJc7Guça OIJ &LG o7iJçX SGL0 jG excjnqeq JuqnafLX—adrwLGq 915q arurircucc JGAGJ oi s sjq jGa; o UnJ pAbaçpcaaLGbOLf2 coGtticTGuca 013 hICK WG&2flLG2 S' 92 MGJ7 92 fG bYLçJ9JA9LT&PIG2 suq OP2GLA&PIG IJJG&2flLG2 at sçpca 2JC711 siiq IIICJC flJG c&pio

tTLac—ace LSLG22JOD 0I 70 SAGL&G b9LGLYç9J TUCOWG 013 qewaisbjc1401E2: fy72 bLeaGufa LG2JTJa tOL ;JJG IOM ILICOIJJG 2SIIJb7G LLOIJJ JJG

9jq jG2f 0000

b9Lf '1 —dn9Leq 011,1

(U 031)op roaa —00'N

(0083)COAGLUWGUc 0020

8 H°91 E2191G (o•hIa)ETU9UCG JU2nL9VCS 012S

(0022)jLsqe

bJIPTTC flcIIIcIGa (Q•Q)jL&uabaLçsç7au ' Q•fl3

(0 02S)0020

(0028)COLJ2;LflCcToU o•oe't

*(0 118)

(008flyLTCnJçnLG —Q 112

*(0038)fl'510t3 0512

JuaçLrnuGuf E2cTWScG

C0JcL01 —= GwOL9bpJC + + + A

uaçLnwGuç gGJGA9VCG' ra JIJCOIJJG 29wb16

IVBr'E TO

Page 60: SIHHM DMLASIOW - NBER

gc bGLCGJJ;

pAbacpGaTa ot exoeucp2 o bsteuçj Tucows y (*) qeuoça 2TthJTLTCSIJCGa aAGLJqGuJXJu teapL.rcçioua &uq 9 11902w9V at UnIT

MTçpru t9IUTITG2 jpc tius pta COJflJ2 bLG2GU; b—Aspie2 tLaw 9peçGLaaceqs2çJcçA at !TUJCUOMU LOLIJJ 92 MelT 92 &LpJ,eL9L2 GLLOL COASLJ&UCG

TUCOWO t9W111G2 f9U9Lcj GLLOL2 StG JU bsx..euçpeaea suq Ste opnaçTIJCOWG an pnwsu cgbiçsj 9ccnwrrJ9çJau at cpqeu OL S 2SWbTG at TOMwoua jpJ2 bLGaGu;a Ga;JW;Ga at cpa Jwbscç Ot bSLGILpSJ

*(Ost3t) (0't3S) (O8ô)EquTCScJ° rnaie F3OQ 023 O'8

ESLUJU2 (OIOO) (o•Iil) *(03S0)2YJTI 03Q! 032e oeat 0003 030

,(0102) *(0112) *(0353)E9LUJU2 038,1 03Q& 088 005 0S0

9G2 *(002) *(002S) (ONS)ENJIT OSTQ o1e2 0111 0X 003

(00sta) (o022) *(0fl8)0S't8 01.I8 03S8 O'.12 031

HnWYU C9bI;9I jucnqeq IUCInqeq & jOEf iGac

X(J-T) no; x(T-T) -. 9q H9flEWSU

WG92flLG at ore -—sara X( 1-I) IWCFUDED--

A = DGWOL9bPIC + & + y + cT

acw&;ea at &: ran IUC0l swbje

IVEFE TI