Soal Dan Jawaban-uas Makroekonomi Prodi s1 Reguler 24 Mei 2011_seta

SOAL 1A – HadiSusanto

Usulan soal Makro 1 / UAS / 2011 / Hadi Susanto.

Pertanyaan:

Dalam jangka pendek, variabel utama yg mempengaruhi bussines cycle yang mengindikasikan gerakan

GDP, terutama adalah labor force.

a) Jelaskan korelasi antara Unemployment dan GDP riil, mengapa demikian. Dalam kaitan ini,

b) Arthur M Okun yang pernah mengajar di Yale University dari 1952-67 telah menciptakan “Hukum

Okun”. Berikan rumusnya, jelaskan apa yang dimaksud dan berikan contoh.

In the short-run, the main variable that influenced business cycle that indicates GDP fluctuation, is labor

force

a. Explain the correlation between unemployment and real GDP, and why it shows that

correlation.

b. In this relation, Arthur M. Okun that had been teaching at the Yale University during 1952-67

has announced “Okun’s Law”. Show the formula, explain what it means and give example.

Jawab: (sumber: Mankiw 7th ed/p.260-263; Mankiw 6th ed. Erlangga/p.248-252)

a). Dalam jangka pendek, bukan kapasitas output nasional [Y = f(K, L, T)] yang menentukan besarnya

output, melainkan jumlah angkatan kerja yang berkarya. Semakin besar bagian dari Labor force yang

bekerja, semakin kecil unemployment, semakin besar output. Jadi, korelasi antara Unemployment dan

GDP adalah negatip.

b). Pertumbuhan GDP riil (%) = a% - 2 x (perubahan pertumbuhan unemployment). Pada edisi 6, Mankiw

menyebut a% = 3,5 (dg data USA 1970-2005); pada edisi 7: a% = 3% (dg data USA 1970-2008). Saya

sarankan jawaban manapun bisa dianggap benar. Menurut Mankiw 3% atau 3,5% adalah hasil

perhitungan jika digunakan Y = f (K, L, T), atau pendekatan jangka panjang. Pada jangka pendek, jika

hanya L yg digunakan sbg explatatory Variable, harus direvisi dg: minus (2 x perubahan unemployment,

dlm %). Contoh: jika unemployment meningkat dari 5% menjadi 6,25%, maka

Growth GDP riil = 3,0% - 2 x ( 5,0% – 6,25%) = +0,50%.

SOAL 2A –Telisa AD I : BUILDING IS-LM MODEL

ENGLISH

Suppose that one country/economy have the following equations:

Goods market

𝐶 = 0.5 (1 − 𝑡) 𝑌

𝑡 = 0.2

𝐼 = 1000 − 90 𝑟

𝐺 = 800

Money market

𝑀

𝑃 𝑑

= 0.2𝑌 − 60 𝑟

Money supply= 540

Notes: 𝑟 in percent (if 𝑟= 3, it means that 𝑟 is 3 percent)

Rounding off the number to simplify calculation.

Based on the information

a. Find the equilibrium of the goods market to observe the relationship of Y and r on this market.

Draw a curve based on equilibrium in the goods market.

b. Find the equilibrium of the money market to observe the relationship of Y and r on this market.

Draw a curve based on equilibrium in the money market.

c. Find the equilibrium in goods and money markets, namely for Y * and r *

d. Draw the derivation of AD curve, if it assumed an increase in price (P)

JAWABAN

BAGIAN A

Fungsi IS: Keseimbangan di PasarBarang

𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺

𝑌 = 0.5(1 − 0.2)𝑌 + 1000 − 90𝑟 + 800

𝑌 = 0.5(0.8)𝑌 + 1800 − 90𝑟

𝑌 − 0.4𝑌 = 1800 − 90𝑟

0.6𝑌 = 1800 − 90𝑟

𝑌 = 3000 − 150𝑟sehinggamendapatkanYIS = f(r)kurva IS

Hasil konsisten dan reliable, karena dY/dr pada IS negative IS downward sloping

Y dan r di pasarbarangmemilikihubungannegatif

𝐘

r

𝐫

𝐈𝐒

BAGIAN B

Fungsi LM: Keseimbangan di PasarUang

(M/P) = f(r,Y) YLM = F(r)

Asumsi: karenanilai P tidakdiketahui, makapenyelesainpersamaan LM langsungmemasukkanMs

𝑀

𝑃 𝑑

= 0.2𝑌 − 60𝑟

540 = 0.2𝑌 − 60𝑟

0.2𝑌 = 540 + 60𝑟

𝑌 = 2700 + 300𝑟

Hasilkonsistendan reliable, karenadY/drpada LM positif LM upward sloping

Y dan r di pasarbarangmemilikihubunganpositif

BAGIAN C

Keseimbangan di pasaruangdanbaranguntukmenemukannilai Y* dan r*

Dimana 𝑌𝐼𝑆 = 3000 − 150𝑟

𝑌𝐿𝑀 = 2700 + 300𝑟

𝑌𝐼𝑆 = 𝑌𝐿𝑀

3000 − 150𝑟 = 2700 + 300𝑟

450𝑟 = 300

𝑟 = 0.67

Untuk mendapatkan Y, maka:

𝑌 = 2700 + 300𝑟

𝒀 𝐘

r

𝐫

LM

𝑌 = 2700 + 300(0.67)

𝑌 = 2700 + 200

𝑌 = 2900

Sehinggakeseimbangan di pasaruangdanbarang:

𝑌∗ = 2900

𝑟∗ = 0.67

BAGIAN D

Penurunankurva AD jikadiasumsikanterjadipeningkatanharga (P)

𝒀∗ = 𝟐𝟗𝟎𝟎 𝐘

r

𝐫∗ = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕

LM

𝐈𝐒

𝑌1

𝐿𝑀0 𝑀

𝑃0

𝐿𝑀1 𝑀

𝑃1

𝑌0

𝑌

𝑟

𝑃0

𝑃1

𝑌

𝑌1

𝑌0

𝑃

SOAL 3 A - Padang English Answer the following questions based on the assumption that Indonesia is a closed economy:

a. The government of Indonesia still commits to implement expansionary fiscal policy during fiscal year of 1 April 2011-31 March 2012 despite being strongly criticized by such multilateral institutions as World Bank, Asia Development Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Consequently, how will the expansionary fiscal policy theoretically impact the equilibrium on goods and money market?

b. After being strongly criticized by parliament members and many small-medium sized entrepreneurs, eventually Bank Indonesia compromises to cut interest rate. Theoretically, what should Bank Indonesia do to accommodate those small-medium sized entrepreneurs’ demand and how will this have an effect on goods and money market equilibrium?

c. Regarding the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy, what will the central bank respond to the tax increase? And what effect will the tax increase have on the economy?

d. Theoretically, how do fiscal and monetary policies influence the AD curve?

JawabanSoal 3 A (Padang Wicaksono)

a.

An increase in government purchases

1. IS curve shifts right

S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011

causing output &

income to rise.

IS1Y

rLM

r1

Y1

1by

1 MPCG

IS2

Y2

r2

1.2. This raises money

demand, causing the

interest rate to rise…

2.

3. …which reduces investment,

so the final increase in Y1

is smaller than 1 MPC

G

3.

2011/5/22 5

b.

Monetary policy: An increase in M

1. M > 0 shifts the LM curve down(or to the right)


2. …causing the

interest rate to fall

IS

Y

rLM1

r1

Y1 Y2

r2

LM2

3. …which increases

investment, causing

output & income to

rise.

2011/5/22 7

c.

The BI’s response to G > 0

S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-20112011/5/22 9

Suppose GOI increases G.

• 1. hold M constant

• 2. hold r constant

• 3. hold Y constant

Possible BI responses:

In each case, the effects of the G

are different.

Response 1: Hold M constant


If GOI raises G,

the IS curve shifts right.

IS1Y

rLM1

r1

Y1

IS2

Y2

r2If BI holds M constant,

then LM curve doesn’t

shift.

Results:

2 1Y Y Y

2 1r r r

2011/5/22 10

Response 2: Hold r constant


If GOI raises G,


IS1Y

rLM1

r1

Y1

IS2

Y2

r2To keep r constant, BI

increases M

to shift LM curve right.

3 1Y Y Y

0r

LM2

Y3

Results:

2011/5/22 11

Response 3: Hold Y constant


IS1Y

rLM1

r1

IS2

Y2

r2To keep Y constant,

BI reduces M

to shift LM curve left.

0Y

3 1r r r

LM2

Results:

Y1

r3

If GOI raises G,


2011/5/22 12

d.

Fiscal policy and the AD curve


Y2

Y2

r2

Y1

Y1

r1

Y

r

Y

P

IS1

LM

AD1

P1

Expansionary fiscal

policy (G and/or T )

increases agg. demand:

T C

IS shifts right

Y at each

value

of P AD2

IS2

2011/5/22 18

Monetary policy and the AD curve


Y

P

IS

LM(M2/P1)

LM(M1/P1)

AD1

P1

Y1

Y1

Y2

Y2

r1

r2

The Fed can increase

aggregate demand:

M LM shifts right

AD2

Y

r

r

I

Y at each

value of P

2011/5/22 17

SOAL 4 A – Femmy English

Chapter 12 (4A)

a. Suppose that Macademia is a small open economy under a system of floating exchange rates.

Use the Mundell-Fleming model to predict what would happen to aggregate income, the

exchange rate, and the trade balance in response to a fall in consumer confidence about the

future induces consumers to spend less and save more.

b. What would happen if exchange rates were fixed rather than floating?

ANSWERS :

Chapter 12: mohonmaafakandisusulkan, karenaharus di-scan dulu (akhirnyasayabuatjawabannya

manual pakaitulisantangan, bikindiagramnyagagalterus).

SOAL 5 A – Rus’an (Chapter 13)

Mengasumsikankurvapenawaranagregatdalamjangkapendek horizontal adalahtidakrealistis.Hal

inididasarkanpadapertimbanganbahwaadaharga-harga yang tidaktetap (non-sticky) dalamjangkapendek.

a. Dengan salah satu teori tentang kurva penawaran agregat (AS), jelaskan bahwa dalam jangka

pendek kurva AS tidak berupa garis horizontal melainkan upward sloping.

b. Dengan mempergunakan kurva AS yang upward sloping, jelaskan hipotesis natural-rate yang

menyatakan bahwa fluktuasi pada permintaan agregat (AD) hanya memengaruhi tingkat

keseimbangan output dan tenaga kerja pada jangka pendek namun tidak pada jangka panjang.

Gunakan kasus shock moneter ekspansif dan jelaskan konsep money neutrality pada kasus ini.

Simplifying price stickyness and drawing the short run aggregate supply curve as horizontal line is

unrealistic. This due to consideration that some prices are non-sticky in the short run.

a. Explain using one of the theory of agregate supply to show that the short run aggregate supply

curve is upward sloping

b. Assuming that the AS curve is now upward sloping, explain the natural-rate hypothesis which

states that fluctuations in aggregate demand affect output and employment only in the short

run, not in the long run. Using the case of monetary expansionary, explain the money neutrality

concept in this case.

Jawab

5A.

a. Soal ini dapat dijelaskan dengan salah satu dari tiga teori tentang AS jika masih mempergunakan

Mankiw s.d. edisi 6 (the sticky wage model, the imperfect information model & the sticky price

model). Jika edisi 7 yang dipergunakan silakan hanya 2 teori yang dipakai pada edisi tersebut.

b. Dengan kurva AS yang upward sloping atau 𝑌 = 𝑌 + 𝛼(𝑃 − 𝑃𝑒) sebuah shock yang

menyebabkan AD berfluktuasi, misalnya ekspansi dari titik A ke titik B akan membuat tingkat

harga naik dari P1 ke P2 disertai kenaikan output dari 𝑌 ke Y3.Karena agen di perekonomian tidak

berfikir bahwa akan perubahan tingkat harga ini, maka harga ekspektasi akan masih berada di

𝑃2𝑒 = 𝑃1

𝑒 = 𝑃1. Perubahan yang mendadak pada kurva AD ini menyebabkan terjadinya ekspansi

output dalam jangka pendek (hal ini dapat dikonfirmasi dengan salah satu teori dari soal a.).

Dalam jangka panjang, tingkat ekpektasi harga berubah untuk mengikuti tingkat harga aktual.

Misalnya dari 𝑃2𝑒 ke 𝑃3

𝑒 . Dimana 𝑃2𝑒<𝑃3

𝑒 . Sesuai persamaan 𝑌 = 𝑌 + (𝑃 − 𝑃𝑒) hal ini tercermin

pada pergeseran kurva AS ke kiri atas dan menyebabkan output kembali ke tingkat semula di

titik C pada titik keseimbangan 𝑌 , 𝑃3. Kondisi keseimbangan ini mencerminkan money neutrality,

dalam jangka panjang perubahan penawaran jumlah uang beredar tidak akan mengubah

keseimbangan riil.

SOAL 6 A – Ledi

(A Dynamic Model of AD and AS)

Jawablahpertanyaanberantai di bawahinidenganmenggunakananalisis model dinamikPermintaan-

PenawaranAgregat (DAD-DAS) dandisertaidengan diagram yang relevan.

a. Seandainya sebuah perekonomian domestik pada periode sebelumnya (t – 1 ) berada pada

kondisi keseimbangan jangka panjang, apa dampak dari terjadinya kenaikan harga minyak dunia

saat ini (periode t ) pada perekonomian tersebut?

b. Saat harga minyak dunia kembali normal pada satu periode berikutnya (t + 1), apakah pada

periode tersebut tingkat output dan tingkat inflasi akan kembali ke tingkat semula? Jelaskan

bagaimana perekonomian domestik bisa kembali ke keseimbangan awalnya!

Y

P LRAS

SRAS1

1 1

eP P

AD1

AD22

eP

2P

3 3

eP P

1Y Y 2Y3Y

SRAS2

Answer the interrelated questions below using the dynamic analysis of AggregateDemand and

Aggregate Supply (DAD-DAS), and support your answer with relevant diagram.

a. If in the previous period (t – 1 ) a domestic economy was in its long run equilibrium, what is the

impact of the current (period t ) world oil price shock to the economy?

b. When the world oil price shock is over after one period (t + 1), will, at the same period, the

output level and the inflation rate of the economy return to their initial level? Explain how the

economy may return to its initial equilibrium!

JAWABAN:

a. Kenaikan harga minyak dunia adalah contoh dari supply shock, membuat variabel v dalam

persamaan DAS berubah. Akibatnya DAS bergeser ke kiri. Inflasi naik, bank sentral merespon

kenaikan inflasi dengan kenaikan suku bunga nominal yang diikuti dengan kenaikan suku bunga

riil (movementalong the curve pada DAD), sehingga tingkat output turun.

b. Saat shock berakhir, DAS bergeser ke kanan, namun pergeserannya belum bisa kembali ke level

semula karena inflasi yang lebih tinggi telah menimbulkan ekspektasi kenaikan inflasi di

masyarakat (melawan arah pergeseran DAS tadi). Setelah ekuilibrium baru menghasilkan tingkat

inflasi yang lebih rendah, barulah ekspektasi inflasi turun, dan terus turun, hingga menggeser

kurva DAS ke posisi awal.

SOAL 7A – Ninasapti

GOVERNMENT DEBT AND BUDGET DEFICIT

SOAL 7A - English

The following paragraphs are news on budget deficit and government debt:

It is seen that government will increase the amount of 2011 budget deficit that currently reached 1.8% of

GDP. So far, Government has not decided any policy to overcome international oil price fluctuation

included subsidized oil.

However, government assure that the magnitude of budget deficit will not be more than 2% of GDP.

“Maybe it will be discussed in July that government will choose to be status-quo, to limit or to increase

subsidized oil price” said Minister of Planning’s Special Staff DediMasykurRiyadi at the beginning of this

week.

(Defisit APBN 2011 BakalLebihBesar, Kontan 18 Mei 2011)

Government has financed Rp 18.7 trillion during April, so that the total cumulative central government

debt is Rp 1.697,44 trillion. RahmatWaluyanto. Director of Debt Management, explains that increasing

central government debt is due to many new debt disbursements. Thus, compared to the nominal gross

domestic bruto (GDP) that also increasing, the ratio of central government debt decline to 25.5% of the

end of 2010 position, which is 26%.

(Supriadi, Agust. UtangPemerintahNaik, Bisnis Indonesia 18 Mei 2011)

Questions:

1. Do you agree with the government’s plan to increase budget deficit as international oil price

tends to increase and its impact to raising the amount of oil subsidy in APBN, therefore it could

cause an increase in government debt? Explain your answer based on economic theory

argument that you have learned (debate between traditional view on government debt vs.

Ricardian)

2. Explain measurement problems of government debt in government budget (APBN).

Answer

1. Agree--> Traditional view: government cut taxes/increase subsidy and runs budget deficit then

consumers respond by spending more in this period--> increase current economic growth.

Disagree --> Ricardian’s view: consumers’ decision on their current consumption based on their

current and future income --> thus they do not change their current consumption (saving their

current income for future reduction in oil subsidy)

2. Measurement problems: inflation, capital assets, uncounted liabilities, business cycle

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Soal Dan Jawaban-uas Makroekonomi Prodi s1 Reguler 24 Mei 2011_seta