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SUETOSHI Tetsui末利 銕意
President TES Research Co. Ltd.P.E. (Chemistry & C.T. Management)
1968-2003: Engineer & Manager at Osaka Gas Company Researcher: Catalyst to remove NOx Pipe repair methods Corrosion protection Method Manager : Singapore Office Corporate Planning Dept. JICA Expert : Planning of natural gas business in Indonesia 2000: Certification of Professional Engineer2003: Certification of Environment Counselor 2005: Establishment of TES Research Co., Ltd.
Deregulation in Japanese Energy Sector and its Technology Trends
1) Tri-lemma “ Energy, Ecology, Economy”
2) Economic Solution “Deregulation”3) Technical Solutions ”New Energies”4) Energy Scenario in the Future Mr. Tetsui Suetoshi 末利銕意
World Energy Demand
024
68
1012
1416
1971 1997 2010 2020year
billio
n to
n oil e
quivalen
t
RenewableHydroNuclearNGOilCoal
World Energy Resources
Oil Coal Natural Gas Trillion barrel Trillion ton Trillion m3 Proven reserve
1.16 1.0 146
Years supply
43 212 62
( HP : J apanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry )
COP 3 Kyoto Protocol EU USA Japan Russia
Reduction goal
in 2010
- 8 - 7 - 6 0
Based on emission volume of global warming gases in 1990 USA withdrew. Russia ratified.
Background of deregulation- Mrs. Thatcher started implementing
deregulation policy in national enterprises including coal mining, telephone & telegram and energy sectors in order to revitalize industries in the UK.
- National Electric and Gas Co. were both privatized and the markets were opened .
- The deregulation trend spread to the whole world.
Deregulation in Japanese Electricity and Gas Sector
Electricity sector Gas sector 1994-1995 Whole sale bid system introduced.
Independent power producers (IPP) started.
Open market >2 million m3/y (40%)
1999-2000 Open market >2000kw
(26%) Open market >0.5 million m3/y
(44%) 2004 Open market >500kw
(40%) Open market >0.1 million m3/y
(50%) 2005 Open market >50kw
(63%)
Results of Deregulation Intensification of competition ( Reduction in prices) M & A among energy sectors Diversification into new businesses Lack of long term business plan ( Cut investment cost for new
facilities)
Mutual Penetration of Electricity and Gas Companies
Ex.Elec. Co. New Gas Co. Ex. Others New Elec. Co. Ex. Gas. Co.
Tokyo Elec
Mitsubishi Oil
Imperial Oil
Nippon Oil
NTT Facilities
Tokyo Gas
Shizuoka
Gas
Kansai Elec
Iwatani Ind.
Osaka
Gas
* capital investment flow
My Energy
L-Energy KandenGASC
O
Ennet
NextEnergy
G&P, CTS
ESCO Business Structure
Before Invest After investment After expiry of agreement
Curren
t Energy C
ost
Customer‘ s Profit
ESCO’s profit
Paym
ent
Interest Investment
New
energy
cost
Customer’s profit
Energy cost
Bankruptcy of PG&E in western USA Return of PG&E as a public
enterprise
Prolonged blackout and power cuts in northeastern US and eastern Canada
Negative Effect of Deregulation
Direction of Deregulation
EEccoonnoommiiccaall eeffffiicciieennccyy((llooww ttaarriiffff))
Public service(stable supply, safety )
Now
Technical Solutions New Energy Utilization to be Developed Dispersed Energy System (Cogeneration ) Fuel Cell
New Energy Resources to be Developed Solar Wind Biomass
Target of New Energy Utilization to be Developed
New energy utilization 2002 2010 Ratio
2010/2002
Clean energy vehicle (1000) 139 3,480 250
Natural gas cogeneration (MW) * 2,150 4,640 2.2
Fuel cell (MW) * 12 2,200 183
(J apanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry )
Target of New Energies to be developed
New energies 2002 (1000 kl-oil eq.)
2010 (1000kl-oil e.)
Share in 2010 (%)
Ratio 2010/2002
Solar power generation*
156 1,180 0.19 7.6
Wind power generation*
189 1,340 0.22 7.1
Waste burning power generation
1,520 5,520 0.90 3.6
Biomass power generation *
226 340 0.06 1.5
Thermal use by new energies
5,546 10,720 1.74 1.9
Total (Share among 1st energy sources )
7,640 (1.2%)
19,100 (3.1%)
3.10 2.5
(J apanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry )
Image of Cogeneration System ( Annual Report 2002 of Osaka Gas Co., ltd.)
コージェネレーションラインアップ
Lineup of Gas Turbine and Engine Cogeneration
Miller Cycle Engine M
Micro Turbine Turbine
Engine
Miller Cycle Engine JB
Lean Burn Engine
Output KW
%
Micro E.
Gas Engine Cogeneration (Annual repot 2002 of Osaka Gas Co., Ltd.)
Micro Gas Cogeneration ( 9.8 kw )
1 kw Cogeneration (Eco-will) (Eco-will Life issued by Osaka Gas)
Cumulative Volume of Gas Cogen. (Data from Japan Gas
Association)
Cumulative MWCumulative number
Comparison of Fuel Cells
Type Polymer electrolyte
(PEFC) Phosphoric acid
(PAFC) Molten
carbonate
(MCFC)
Solid oxide
(SOFC)
Ope.temp.(℃) 50~80 150~210 600~700 800~1000 Fuel H2 H2 CH4 etc. CH4 etc. Power
efficiency (%) 35~40 40~45 45~50 45~55
Development level
Demonstration △
Commercial ○
Demonstration △
Demonstration △
Good points Low temp. Easy to start & stop
commercialized No converter No converter, Highest efficiency
Bad points Hydrogen needed CO removal needed
Higher cost (than engine)
Taking long time to start & stop
Tests in Japan Gas Association
Manufacturer Capaci ty (KW)
Number
Fuel Connect or stand al one
Ebara- Bal ard
1. 0 2 Natural gas
connect
Sanyo 0. 8 2 Di tto Di tto Toshi ba 0. 7 2 Di tto di tto Toyota 1. 0 1 Di tto di tto
Matsushi ta 1. 3 2 Di tto di tto H-power(USA) 3. 0 1 propane Stand al one
Matsushi ta (portabl e)
0. 2 1 butane Stand al one
Test Sites of PEFC
Tokyo test site
Nagoya test site
Osaka test site
Demonstration of PEFC (1KW)
Solar Power Generation
Cumulative capacity MW
World share %
J apan 637 49 Germany 277 21
USA 212 16 Others 186 14 Total 1,312 100
(Trend in Photovoltaic Applications/ IEA/ PVPAS(2002).)
Wind Power Generation
Cumulative capacity MW
World share %
Growth rate %/ year
1 Germany 11,968 41 37 2 Spain 5,043 17 42 3 USA 4,674 16 10
4 Denmark 2,880 10 17
5 India 1,702 6 17
9 J apan 486 2 36
10 China 473 2 17 Total 29,329 100 28
( Wind Horse 12 )
Biomas Cogeneration Process
Crushing Electricity
Hot water 3,100 kwh/day
Cold water
Methane gas
2,400 m3/day
Community center
garbage
10 t/ day
Fermenting
Vessel Gas Engine Sewage
treatment Commercial elec.
company
Economic Analysis of Bio-cogen.
Methane gas :240m 3 / ton of garbage Power generation : 590kwh ( self
consumption280kwh ) Electricity tariff sold : 310kwh×\16/kwh=\5,000 Benefit : Elec. tariff sold + reduced cost(incineration) \5,000 + \19,200 = \24,200/ ton of garbage (US$ 220/ton of garbage) * Garbage treatment cost : \60,800 /ton of
garbage ( collect\37,400 incinerate\19,200 reclaim\4,200 )
Energy Scenario in the Future Natural gas pipeline in Northeast
Asia Methane Hydrate and its reserve Hydrogen society
北東アジア天然ガスパイプライン構想
Natural Gas Pipeline Plan
メタンハイドレート
Burning Methane Hydrate
世界のメタンハイドレート分布
Potential Reserves of Methane Hydrate
Distribution Around Japan
By Mr. Mikio Sato
METI JAPN
海底メタンハイドレート層からガスを生産する仕組みイメージ
Image of natural gas production from a off-shore rig
③Gathering methane
①Injecting steam
②Gasified by steam
Methanehydrate
Free methane Free methane
Iceland Aiming a Hydrogen Society Producing hydrogen using
abundant geothermal and hydraulic power
Under development of a hydrogen driven ship and boat
Replacing 40% of oil to hydrogen in 2050
Conclusion Deregulation in energy sector should go
step by step with careful preparation. New technologies including
cogeneration, fuel cell, solar, wind and bio-mass power are being commercialized.
Hydrogen society is emerging.
Thank you for your attention