tải xuống trọn số 22

S 22

thng 8, 2011

thi i miTP CH NGHIN CU & THO LUN

Mc Lc

1. H Bch Tho, Trung Quc tng nu vic nh chim An Nam gy p lc vi cc nc ng Nam ................................................ 1

2. Hong Vit, Mt ci nhn v chnh sch ca Trung Quc i vitranh chp bin ng....................................................................... 11

3. Ross Terrill, Trung Quc mun g? ................................................ 28

4. Aaron L. Friedberg, B quyn vi bn sc Trung Quc ................. 40

5. David Shambaugh, i ph vi mt Trung Quc mu thun ......... 53

6. L Vnh Trng, Sc mnh mm ca Vit Nam v ASEAN i viTrung Quc ..................................................................................... 79

7. Phm Hong Qun, Nhng ghi chp lin quan n bin ng VitNam trong phng ch Trung Hoa ................................................ 100

8. Nguyn Trung, Vit Nam v vn s dng ngi ti trong giaion hin nay ................................................................................. 184

Trung Quc tng nu vic nh chim An Nam gy p lc vi cc nc

ng Nam H Bch Tho

Tm tt: Bi vit ny phn tch mt s trch on trong Minh Thc Lc thy rng, vo khong u th k XV, nh Minh Trung Quc nhiu ln nu vic nh An Nam (Vit Nam) e da cc nc ng Nam khc. T kha: Minh Thc Lc, Lch s, Vit Nam, Trung Quc, ng Nam .

2011 Thi i Mi

Vit Nam v cc nc vng ng Nam vo ci th mi h rng lnh. Cp mi Vit Nam h, khin hm rng ng Nam chu lnh nh th no, c nhiu nh nghin cu phn tch. Gn y thi ca Trung Quc li cng ngang ngc, bt chp c bng chng lch s v php lut quc t, t tin v ng li b 9 vch, i hi n 80% lnh hi vng bin ng. Trong cuc tranh chp ny, Vit Nam hon cnh ng mi chu so, b e da nhiu nht; nn nhng ngi lo xa t phi ngh n v s phn cc nc ng Nam , mt khi Vit Nam nm trong gng km Trung Quc.

Hy n li thi k en ti nht vo u th k th 15, nc An Nam [tn c ca Vit Nam] b tht bi trc cuc xm lng ca Trung Quc. Ngy 10/5/1407 lm l dng hin t binh gm cha con H Qu Ly v by ti ti kinh Trung Quc; vua Minh Thi Tng [Thnh T] ch thn tham d v ban b bn tuyn co rng nc An Nam b h.

Cng thi vi cuc xm lng An Nam, ln u tin chin hm ca Thi gim Trnh Ha lm chuyn hi hnh th uy ti vng ng Nam . Khi n nc Tro Oa [Java], th nc ny ang trong tnh trng ni chin gia 2 phe: ng vng Tro Oa v Ty vng Tro Oa. Phe Ty vng Tro Oa chin thng phe ng vng. Gp lc qun ca Trnh Ha b ln phn t ca ng vng b phe Ty vng git cht hn 170 tn. Sau khi s vic xy ra, vo ngy 23/10/1407 S thn Ty vng

thi i mi TP CH NGHIN CU & THO LUN

S 22 thng 8, 2011

H Bch Tho | Trung Quc tng nu vic nh chim An Nam 2

Thi i Mi | Thng 8, 2011

Tro Oa n kinh nh Minh t ti. Vua Thi Tng gin d, em vic cha con H Qu Ly ti An Nam b tiu dit ra e da, v cui cng i phi bi thng mt s vng ln n 6 vn lng:

[226] Ngy 23 thng 9 nm Vnh Lc th 5 [23/10/1407]

Ty Vng M Phn nc Tro Oa sai s Lit Gia n n triu cng t ti. Trc y Ty Vng Tro Oa v ng Vng Tro Oa nh nhau, phe ng Vng Tro Oa b tiu dit. Lc by gi triu nh sai s n cc nc Phin, i qua phn t trc y ng Vng cai tr; quan qun ln b mua bn, b phe Ty Vng git 170 ngi. Ty Vng bit c nn s hi, n nay sai ngi n t ti.

Thin t sai s mang sc d M Phn rng:

Ngi vn bin nam, lm trn chc cng, S gi qua li bit ly l p li, Trm ring khen iu . Mi y bn ngi cng ng Vng gy vic binh ao; khin 170 ngi ca Thin triu sai n u cht, ti li rnh rnh. V li ngi v ng Vng u c triu nh phong tc, nhng v s tham gin, t tin tiu dit chim nc ca ng Vng, tri o tri nghch mnh, cn ti no ln hn vy! Sp em qun i tho pht, th ngi sai Lit Gia n n kinh khuyt chu ti. Trm ngh ngi bit hi hn, nn dng binh khng tin; nhng ngh n 170 ngi cht mt cch oan ung, th lm sao b qua c! Bi vy ngi phi np 6 vn lng vng bi thng tnh mnh ngi cht chuc ti, mi bo h c t ai v nhn dn ca ngi .Nu khng tun th khng th trnh c mang qun i hi ti; hy xem s vic ti An Nam lm tm gng soi!

(Minh Thc Lc v. 11, tr. 997-998; Thi Tng q. 71, tr. 6a-6b)

tin tham kho thm t liu, ngoi bn dch Vit vn ca chng ti c trch t Minh Thc Lc: Quan h Trung Quc v Vit Nam1; xin nh km bn dch Anh vn ca Tin s Geoff Wade; ngun t The Ming Shi Lu as a source for Southeast Asian history, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore2.

1 H Bch Tho, bn dch Minh thc lc: Quang h Trung Quc Vit Nam, NXB H Ni, H Ni, 2010. 2 Bn dch ca Geoff Wade (http://epress.nus.edu.sg/msl):

Yong-le: Year 5, Month 9, Day 23 (23 Oct 1407)

| Record 553 of 3279 |

The envoy Ya-lie Jia-en and others whom had been sent by Du-ma-ban, the Western king of the country of Java, came to Court to admit guilt. Previously, the Western king had been involved in battle with the Eastern king and the



Sau v cng bch nc Tro Oa np vng cha c mt thng, vua nh Minh bn sai s mang vn th n trao cho vua nc Lo Qua, tin thn nc Ai Lao hin nay. Trong vn th hi ti rng Lo Qua ngm gip An Nam chng li Trung Quc. Cn c vo chnh s thc lc v cuc chin gia Trung Quc v An Nam, khng cp n s kin ny; xt ra y ch l ci c nh Minh bt nc Lo Qua phi mau n triu cng. Cng nh trng hp i vi nc Tro Oa nu trn, vic sai tng ra qun, thay tri tho pht An Nam, cng c nu ln h da:


Sai s mang sc d Tuyn y s Lo Qua ao Tuyn Ngt rng:

Ta t khi ln ngi n nay, cai tr ngi xa xi, khng phn bit k ny ngi khc, u i x vi mt d ch thnh; v vy 9 Di, 8 Man u n triu cng. Ngi nhn mnh triu nh, ng u coi gi t; m my nm gn y khng lo sa son chc cng, coi vic t nhin nh khng! Cha con gic h L ti An Nam, tri mnh gy ha; thn v

Eastern king had been eliminated. At the time, the envoy who had been sent by the Court to the various fan countries was passing through where the Eastern king had ruled. The government troops went ashore to trade and 170 of them were killed by the troops of the Western king. When the Western king heard of this, he was frightened and at this time the envoy he had sent came to admit guilt. The Emperor sent an envoy with Imperial orders of instruction to Du-ma-ban. The orders read: "You reside in the Southern Ocean and have been able to to fulfil your tributary functions. Envoys have come and gone and they have been received and sent off with ceremony. I have been pleased with you. You have recently engaged in battle with the Eastern king and were involved in the killing of over 170 men who had been sent by the Court. There is no doubt as to your guilt. Both you and the Eastern king were enfeoffed by the Court. However, you acted on the basis of greed and anger and without authority eliminated him and occupied his land. You have acted against Heaven and violated orders. Is there anything more serious than this? Just as I was about to raise an army to punish you, Ya-lie Jia-en and the others whom you sent, came to Court and advised your admission of guilt. I have seen that you are capable of repenting your mistakes and I have thus leniently stopped the despatch of troops. But what of the 170 people who died innocently? You mu st immediately pay 60,000 liang of gold as compensation for their lives and to atone for your crime. In this way, you will be protecting your land and your people. Fail to comply and there will be no option but to despatch an army to punish your crime. What happened in Annam can serve as an example!"

Tai-zong: juan 71.6a-b

Zhong-yang Yan-jiu yuan Ming Shi-lu, volume 11, page 0997/98



ngi u phn n; Trm sai tng ra qun, thay tri tho pht, ngi khng v triu nh m cm gin chng, li ngm thng ng gip qun; gian di nh vy, lm sao m chy ti c.

Ta mun mang qun hi ti ngay, nhng s tn thng n ngi dn v ti, nn nay c sai s gi n d ngi hy mau hi li xa, ng hu mu s bo ton; nu khng th tri trch, ngi pht, hi s khng kp na!

(Minh Thc Lc v. 11, tr. 1001-1002; Thi Tng q. 72, tr. 1a-1b)

Xem bn dch Anh vn3.

S e da cn lan n nc Tim La [Thi Lan]. Lc ny hu nh nh Minh ng vai tr cnh st quc t, hi ti Tim La bt s gi nc Bnh Hanh [Pahang], ot n tn v bn ch co ca cc nc T Mn p Th [Samudera] v Mn Th Gia [Melaka]; v khng qun h da

3 Bn dch ca Geoff Wade (http://epress.nus.edu.sg/msl):

Yong-le: Year 5, Month 10, Day 8 (7 Nov 1407)

| Record 560 of 3279 |

An envoy was sent with Imperial orders of instruction for Dao Xian-dai, the pacification superintendent of Laos. The orders read: "Since I became Emperor, I have comforted the distant peoples and have not differentiated between here and there. I have been perfectly sincere to all. Thus the nine yi and the eight man have all come to offer tribute. You received orders from the Court appointing you as the chieftain and defender of your region. However, in recent years, you have not come to Court to offer tribute. Why is this so? The Li bandits of Annam, both father and son, disobeyed Heaven and caused calamities. Both the spirits and men were angered and thus I ordered the generals to take an army and respectfully carry out Heaven's punishment. You were unwilling to take the Court's enemies as your own and instead have secretly colluded with Ji-li, and assisted him with troops and elephants. Having been so guileful and deceitful, how can punishment for your crimes be avoided? I wanted to despatch troops to punish your crimes, but was afraid that innocent people would be hurt. Thus, I am now sending a special envoy with orders of instruction for you. If you are able to repent your previous crimes, you will be able to ensure your security. If you do not do this, the punishments of Heaven and man will be forthcoming and at that time, it will be too late to repent."





v vt bnh xe ca cha con nh h L ti An Nam cn r rng trc mt, c th ly m soi:

[233] Ngy 21 thng 10 nm Vnh Lc Th 5 [20/11/1407]

Quc vng Tim La Chiu Lc Qun ng La Th sai bn S gi Ni B Tc Trc S Th dng biu cng voi thun, chim anh v, khng tc; ban cho tin giy, y phc. Mnh b L ban cho Vng nc ny la dt kim, la l.

Trc nc Chim Thnh sai s triu cng, lc tr v gp bo phiu dt n nc Bnh Hanh. Tim La cy mnh p lc Bnh Hanh bt S gi cu lu, s vic c k bo cho triu nh bit. Vng cc nc T Mn p Th , Mn Th Gia cng sai ngi t co Tim La cng bo, sai lnh ot n tn v bn ch co nhn t triu nh; ngi trong nc kinh hi v khng c sng yn n. Do ban sc d Chiu Lc Qun ng La Th rng:

Chim Thnh, T Mn p Th, cng nc ngi bnh ng nhn mnh ca triu nh; sao ngi dm t th mnh bt S gi n triu nh, chim at n v bn ch co. o tri rnh rnh lm thin c phc, c gp tai ha ; vt bnh xe ca cha con nh h L ti An Nam cn r rng trc mt, c th ly m soi. Hy lp tc phng thch ngay S gi Chim Thnh, cng tr n, co cho T Mn p Th, Mn Th Gia . T nay phi an phn gi l, ha mc vi ln bang, ng hu hng c thi bnh mi mi.

(Minh Thc Lc, v. 11,tr. 1008-1009; q. 72, tr. 4b-5a)

Xem bn dch Anh vn4.


Yong-le: Year 5, Month 10, Day 21 (20 Nov 1407)

| Record 564 of 3279 |

The envoy Nai Po-lang-zhi-shi-ti and others, who had been sent by Zhao Lu-qun Ying-duo-luo-di-la, the king of the country of Siam, presented a memorial and offered tribute of trained elephants, parrots, peacocks and other products. Paper money, silks and clothing were conferred upon them. The Ministry of Rites was ordered to confer upon the king biao-li of patterned fine silks and silk gauzes interwoven with gold thread. Previously, the envoy from Champa, who had come to Court, was at sea returning home when strong winds blew his ship to the country of Pahang. Siam intimidated Pahang with a show of force and took away the Champa envoy. They detained him and did not send him back. News of this then reached the Court. The kings of the countries of Samudera and Melaka also sent people to complain that Siam had been overbearing and that it had sent troops to take away their seals and title patents which they had



Trong cuc chin tranh vi An Nam [1406-1407], Chim Thnh c cng gip nh Minh, nn sau khi chin thng vua Thnh Tng sai Thi Gim Vng Qu Thng mang tin, la sang ban thng5. n lc Chim Thnh hp tc vi nh Minh dp cuc khi ngha ca Trn Qu Khoch ti An Nam, ri chim ly ph Thng Hoa; vin Thng th b binh xin mang qun nh chim Chim Thnh, nhng vua nh Minh cm thy mt mi v chin tranh, nn ch rn e khng chu tr li t An Nam, th hy trng bnh xe trc mt, xem lm rn!:


Thng th b Binh Trn Hip tu rng lc triu nh mang binh dp gic h L cng Trn Qu Khoch, Quc vng nc Chim Thnh Chim Ba ch Li tuy tun triu mnh mang binh sang tr gip; nhng y m mu hai lng, coi bn chng nh mi vi rng hng nng da. Y trng ch nhn ng tnh hnh, khng tin qun ng hn, lc n Ha Chu th ra sc cp bc. Li a vng, vi vc, voi trn t cp cho Qu Khoch, Khoch mang con gi h L em cho; cn dung np cu Qu Khoch l Trn ng nh, em ca ng Dung l ng on cng trai gi hn 3 vn ngi. Y xm ot ph Thng Hoa gm 4 chu 11 huyn, li cp bc nhn dn, ti di Qu Khoch mt bc m thi. Phm c ti phi trng tr, xin pht binh chinh pht.

Thin t cho rng va bnh nh xong, dn mi c yn nghip, khng n mang qun i nh nc man di xa xi. Ch sai s sang d Chim Ba ch Li rng nc ngi t lu b An Nam c hi, my ln xin pht binh tiu tr, Trm mnh em qun bnh nh, chia nc ny thnh qun huyn. Ngi Li, ng cm t n c, yn phn gi t

received from the Court. They also noted that the people of their countries were scared and unable to live in peace. At this time, orders were conferred upon Zhao Lu-qun Ying-duo-luo-di-la, as follows: "Champa, Samudera, Melaka and you have all received the Court's orders. You stand as equals. Why have you, relying on force, detained their envoy to the Court and taken away their seals? The illustrious way of Heaven is to bring prosperity to the good and calamity to the evil. The Li bandits of Annam, both father and son, previously met disaster. You can take warning from that. Immediately return the Champa envoy and the seals and title patents conferred upon Melaka and Samudera. From now on you should look to your own affairs, maintain propriety, live in peace with your neighbours and protect your territory. In this way, you will long enjoy great peace."

Tai-zong: juan 72.4b-5a


5 Minh Thc Lc, Thi Tng, quyn 2, trang 7a.



phong, nu n hai lng tri o tri, khng chm sc k di, khng chu tr li t An Nam, th hy trng bnh xe trc mt, xem lm rn!

(Minh Thc Lc v. 13, tr. 1900-1901; Thi Tng q. 170, tr.3b-4a)

Xem bn dch Anh vn6.

Trong giai on u cuc khi ngha ca L Li ti An Nam, Tng binh qun Minh l L Bn ng rng L Li trn ti nc Lo Qua, nn i mang qun vt bin gii lc sot. Vin u mc Lo Qua xin quan qun Minh ng vo bin cnh, s t mang qun lc sot, nu bt c


Yong-le: Year 13, Month 11, Day 28 (29 Dec 1415)

| Record 927 of 3279 |

The Minister of War Chen Qia advised as follows: "When the Court originally subdued the Li bandits and Chen Ji-kuo, although Zhan-ba Di-lai, the king of the country of Champa, obeyed the Court's orders and despatched troops in assistance, actually he secretly had divided loyalties. Wishing to rely on both sides, he constantly looked from one to the other and failed to attack in due time. When he did advance, he attacked Hua Subprefecture, and engaged in great violence and plunder. He also provided his "Gold and Silk" () war elephants to assist Ji-kuo and presented him with Li Cang's daughter. He further received Ji-kuo's uncle Chen Weng-ting, Deng Rong's younger brother Deng Duan and other men and women, totalling over 30,000 persons. In addition, he attacked four subprefectures and eleven counties under Sheng-hua Prefecture, drove the people away and engaged in plunder. His crimes are but one grade less serious than those of Ji-kuo himself. Those who commit crimes mu st be punished. It is requested that troops be despatched to punish him." As Jiao-zhi was at peace and the people had returned to their occupations, the Emperor could not bear to send troops against the distant yi. However, an envoy was sent to take the following Imperial orders of instruction to Zhan-ba Di-lai: "You long suffered under the poisonous influence and cruelty of Annam and repeatedly requested that troops be despatched to eliminate the evil. I thus ordered my armies to subdue them and to establish administrative divisions. You should take advantage of this peace, think about how fortunate you have been, look to your own affairs and protect the territory of your fief. If you secretly harbour dual loyalties, rebel against the Way of Heaven, do not soothe your people and do not return the territory you have invaded, the occurrences in Annam can serve as a warning as to what will happen to you!"

Tai-zong: juan 170.3b-4a




xin giao np. S vic tu ln, vua Thi Tng khng tin li Lo Qua, v cho bt vin u mc n Bc Kinh tra hi nh l mt ti phm:


Quan Tng binh Giao Ch Phong Thnh hu L Bn tu:

Phn tc L Li chy trn sang Lo Qua, ra lnh cho qun truy bt. Nhng Lo Qua sai u mc Lm K Tc Cc xin quan qun ng vo bin cnh, s cho qun lnh i lc sat, nu c L Li s em n ca qun. T n nay lu, khng thy tung tch L Li.

Thin t xem tu, nghi Lo Qua du gic nn sc d Bn a bn Lm K Tc Cc n Bc Kinh ct vn. (Minh Thc Lc v. 14, tr. 2289-2290; q 241, tr. 1a-1b)

Xem bn dch Anh vn7:

Ti An Nam, vo ma xun nm 1428, thi cuc thay i. Sau khi o qun tip vin cui cng ca qun Minh b nh tan, Thnh sn hu Vng Thng tri qua bc ng cng, khng ch lnh vua, t tin rt qun v nc; An Nam dnh c c lp. K t nh Minh tr nn bit iu hn, khng cn e da mang qun i xm chim cc nc. Nh vic S thn Tim La mang sn vt n triu cng Trung Quc b Chim Thnh cu lu ti cng Qui Nhn; cng vic S thn Trung Quc trn ng n cc nc ng Nam , b bo dt n Chim Thnh, cng b cu lu. Trc hnh vi coi thng Thin triu, vua nh Minh ch


Yong-le: Year 19, Month 9, Day 11 (7 Oct 1421)

| Record 1121 of 3279 |

The Feng-cheng Marquis Li Bin, regional commander of Jiao-zhi, memorialized: "The rebellious bandit Li Li fled into Laos and I ordered the troops to pursue and apprehend him. However, Laos then sent the chieftains Lan Qi and Lang Gu to request that the Imperial troops not enter their territory. Thereupon, the troops were sent to conduct a search within the territory of Laos. It turned out that Li Li was there. Thus, the chieftains were sent to the general military headquarters. At this time Li Li has not appeared for quite a long period." The Emperor, on reading the memorial, suspected that Laos was concealing the bandit. Thus Imperial orders were sent to Bin requiring him to send Lan Qi and Lang Gu to Bei-jing for investigation.





a li khuyn rn mm mng, ch khng cn hung hng hm da nh trc:

[879] Ngy 25 thng 5 Nm Chnh Thng Th Nht [9/6/1436] Chnh ph S Chim Thnh bn B Sa Ph T Cc t gi b rng; mnh ban sc d Vng nc ny rng:

Vng bit knh tri th ngi trn, t xa thi t tng ta ln ngi cung knh vi chc cng; nay Trm mi ni ngi Vng li sai s triu cng; thc ng khen! Tuy nhin gn y S thn nc Tim La tu rng vo nm Tuyn c th 4 [1429] nc ny sai S thn cng vi 100 ngi gm c n ng, n b mang sn phm a phng p thuyn n cng. Khi n cng Tn Chu [cng Qui Nhn] nc ngi, b ngi trong nc cu lu. Nm Tuyn c th 6 [1431] hn 20 quan qun ca triu nh p thuyn xung Ty Dng, trn ng gp bo dt vo nc ngi, cng b cu lu.

Khi sc n Vng hy em nhng ngi v phng vt ca Tim La cng s quan qun i Ty Dng th tr v ngay; nhn dn mi ngi ai cng c on t cng cha m v con; Vng cng c trng tn an lc. Nu khng th tri t qu thn c ch khng dung th; Vng nn hiu r, p ng lng hoi mong ca Trm. Ban cho Vng cng Vng phi nhung thu hoa, gm dt kim tuyn, cng la l, la on cc loi.

Xem bn dch Anh vn8.


Zheng-tong: Year 1, Month 5, Day 25 (9 Jun 1436)

| Record 1685 of 3279 |

The chief envoy Bu-sha-pa Ji-ge, the deputy envoy and others from the country of Champa took leave of the Court. They were ordered to take Imperial orders of instruction for their king. The orders read: "You, king, have been capable in respecting Heaven and serving the superior. When my Imperial ancestors were on the throne, you respectfully fulfilled your tribute obligations and became increasingly reverent. I have now ascended the throne and you, king, have again sent an envoy to come to Court to offer tribute. This regard and diligence is highly commendable. Recently, an envoy from the country of Siam memorialized that in the fourth year of the Xuan-de reign (1429/30), their country sent an envoy with over 100 male and female fan attendants, and they set sail in a ship bearing the local products they were to offer in tribute. When they came to Xin-zhou Port in your country, they were detained by the people of your country. In the sixth year of the same reign (1431/32), when 20-plus government troops of those the Court had sent to the Western Ocean happened to meet strong winds and were blown in their ship to your country, they were



also detained. When these orders arrive, you, king, are to immediately release and send back all the Siamese people and local products originally detained as well as the government troops who had been sent to the Western Ocean. In this way, all these people will be able to fulfil their desire to be re-united with their fathers, mothers, wives and children, and you, king, will long enjoy peace. If you do not do this, Heaven and Earth and the ghosts and spirits will indeed find it intolerable. You, king, should note this well and accord with my cherished hopes!" In addition, decorated velvet brocades (), ramie-silk, silk gauzes interwoven with gold thread, and variegated satins, as appropriate, were conferred upon the king and his consort.

Ying-zong: juan 17.9a-b


Mt ci nhn v chnh sch ca

Trung Quc i vi tranh chp bin ng Hong Vit

Tm tt: Xem xt cc chnh sch ca Trung Quc i vi bin ng cng nh phn tch cc tuyn b v hnh ng ca Trung Quc trong thi gian gn y, thy rng: Trung Quc lun c tham vng chim hu bin ng lm bn p chin lc trong vic thc hin tham vng cng quc bin. Tuy nhin, vi bi cnh quc t mi, vi s l thuc vo ngun du m nhp khu qua eo bin Mallacca cng nh v tr ca Trung Quc hin nay, Trung Quc kh c th s dng v lc trong vic gii quyt tranh chp ti bin ng.

T kha: Bin ng, Trung Quc, Vit Nam.

2011 Thi i Mi

I. Gii thiu

Tranh chp bin ng thi gian va qua li tr nn ht sc cng thng, c bit vi nhng s kin mi xy ra gn y nh pha Vit Nam v Philipines t co cc hnh ng mang tnh cht gy hn ca pha Trung Quc nh e da cc tu ca Philippines ti khu vc vng c quyn kinh t ca Philippines vo hi thng 3/20111, cng nh ct cp ca tu Bnh Minh 02 ca Vit Nam ngy 26/5/20112, e da ct cp tu Viking 02 ngy 09/06/20113 ca Vit Nam, mc d cc tu ny u hot ng trong vng bin thuc vng c quyn kinh t v thm lc a ca Vit Nam theo cc quy nh ca Cng c Lut bin ca Lin Hp Quc nm 1982.

Tranh chp bin ng mt ln na li nng ln trong cc phin ngh s quc t trong nm nh Hi ngh Shangrila hi thng 5 hay Hi ngh ARF thng 7 va ri.

1 Ian Storey, China and the Philippines: Implications of the Reed Bank Incident, The Jamestown Foundation, 6/5/2011. 2 H Ni phn bc li Trung Quc, BBC Ting Vit, 29/5/2011. 3 Tu TQ li 'ph cp' ca tu Vit Nam thu, BBC Ting Vit, 9/6/2011.

thi i mi TP CH NGHIN CU & THO LUN

S 22 thng 8, 2011

Hong Vit | Mt ci nhn v chnh sch ca Trung Quc 12


Trung Quc l mt bn quan trng trong tranh chp bin ng, vi v th l mt cng quc hng u chu , cc chnh sch ca Trung Quc lun nh hng rt ln n bin ng, v th vic xem li nhng s vic xy ra trong qu kh nhn xt v chnh sch ca Trung Quc trong tranh chp bin ng, t a nhng nh hng cho tng lai l mt vic lm cn thit.

Tm hiu v chnh sch ca Trung Quc i vi tranh chp bin ng l mt vn khng n gin. Trong bi vit ny, tc gi mun a ra mt ci nhn t ba hng khc nhau t c th i n mt kt lun v chnh sch ca Trung Quc i vi tranh chp bin ng. Ba hng nhn l: Th nht, Trung Quc cn bin ng ti mc no?; Th hai, Trung Quc s dng v lc trong cc cuc tranh chp lnh th trc y ra sao?(T s tm cu tr li cho cu hi Trung Quc c kh nng s dng v lc trong tranh chp bin ng hay khng); Th ba, Trung Quc th hin thi ca mnh nh th no qua nhng tuyn b chnh thc v qua cc hnh ng gn y?

II. Trung Quc cn bin ng n mc no?

i vi ngi Trung Quc, khng c mc ch no ln lao hn mc ch to lp v duy tr mt t nc Trung Quc thng nht, mnh m v y quyn lc chi phi trt t th gii4. c mt nc Trung Quc nh vy, phi c mt chnh quyn trung ng mnh, nn kinh t quc gia giu c vi mt h thng qun s hin i, t mi c th gp phn khng nh v th lnh o ca Trung Quc trn trng quc t.

c th ginh c v tr lnh o trn trng quc t nh vy, bin v i dng ng mt vai tr c bit quan trng trong chin lc pht trin tr thnh siu cng ca Trung Quc. Nm 2004, trong bi vit a chin lc bin v s pht trin ca Hi qun Trung Quc u th k 215, mt chin lc gia Trung Quc l Xu Qi tng kt v ch ra 4 yu t then cht v tm quan trng ca bin trong chin lc pht trin tr thnh siu cng ca Trung Quc, l: i) Mi quan h mt thit gia bin v quyn lc quc gia l nhn t cn thit mang tnh cht sng cn trong s thnh vng lu di i vi quc gia; ii) Bin c mt nh hng su sc n s thnh vng v quyn lc ca quc gia; iii) Mi quan h trc tip gia vai tr a l quan trng ca khng gian bin vi an ninh quc gia; iv) Xuyn sut chiu di lch s, cuc chy ua gia

4 J. T Collins, Slow siege of Spratly Islands: Chinas South China Sea Strategy, tr.13, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada389080.pdf 5Xu Qi, Maritime Geostrategy and Development of The Chinese Navy in the early twenty-first century, Translated by Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, Naval War College Review, Autumn 2006, Vol. 59, No. 4, tr. 47-67.



cc cng quc lun l nhng cuc cnh tranh ginh quyn kim sot vi cc khu vc bin chin lc trn th gii.

Cc nh chin lc Trung Quc rt cao hc thuyt ca Alfred Thayer Mahan6, v quyt tm xy dng Trung Quc s tr thnh cng quc bin ri t tin ti tr thnh siu cng.

hin thc ha gic m v sc mnh bin ca mnh, trong mt bo co cng b t nm 19827 bi tng Lu Hoa Thanh Cu Ph ch tch Qun y trung ng th chin lc bin ca Trung Quc bao gm 3 giai on. Giai on th nht t nm 2000 n nm 2010, Trung Quc thit lp s kim sot tt c cc vng nc trong chui o th nht ni lin t Okinawa, i Loan v Philippines. Giai on 2 t 2010 n 2020, Trung Quc s tm cch thit lp s kim sot tt c cc vng nc trong chui o th 2, ni t chui o Ogasawara ti Guam v Indonesia. Giai on cui cng, t 2020 n 2040, Trung Quc s thay th Hoa K thng tr ton b Thi Bnh Dng v n Dng, s dng cc hng khng mu hm duy tr sc mnh qun s ca mnh trn bin.

Trong chin lc bin y tham vng , bin ng ng mt vai tr quan trng, v bin ng nm trong chui o th nht, v l vng bin quan trng cha ng nhiu ti nguyn cng nh c nhiu con ng hng hi quc t quan trng trn th gii chy ngang qua, v cng c mt v tr nh mt vng m trong chin lc an ninh quc gia ca Trung Quc8.

6 James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, Mao Zedong, Meet Alfred Thayer Mahan: Strategic Theory and Chinese Sea Power, Australian Defence Force Journal, Issue No. 171, 2006, tr. 32-50.

Theo Mahan, 3 tr ct duy tr quyn lc bin ca mt quc gia, chnh l: Thng mi; Cc i tu bin; v cc hm i Hi qun. 7 Stacy A. Pedrozo, Chinas Active Defence Strategy and its Regional Impact, tr. 2, www.uscc.gov/pressreleases/2011/11_01_19pr.pdf 8 Xem thm Hong Vit, Gii php no cho tranh chp bin ng?, Tp ch Thi i Mi, s 19, 2010.



Hnh 1: Cc tuyn ng thng mi quan trng ca Trung Quc trn bin. Ngun: Annual report to congress, Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China, 2010, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defence, United of States of America, trang 21.

Bi cnh chin lc quc t cng nh chnh tr ni b Trung Quc hin nay khin chnh sch ca Trung Quc b tc ng rt ln bi cc nhn t lin quan n kinh t9.

Thng mi bin l mt phn c bit quan trng trong cc hot ng thng mi ca Trung Quc. Theo s liu trong bo co Pht trin bin 2010 ca Trung Quc10, ch tnh ring nm 2008, thng mi ng bin chim 9,87% GDP ca nc ny, vi tng gi tr l gn 3 nghn t nhn dn t (khong 456 t la M). Hn na, khong 85% cc hot ng thng mi quc t ca Trung Quc u vn chuyn qua ng bin.

Chnh v vy, vai tr ca bin i vi s pht trin ca Trung Quc l rt ln, trong tp trung c bit vo lng du m nhp khu duy tr mc tng trng ca nn kinh t. Nm 2009, Trung Quc nhp

9 Elinor Sloan, Chinas Strategic Behaviour, the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute, tr. 2, www.cdfai.org/PDF/China%20Strategic%20Behaviour.pdf 10Dean Cheng, Sea Power and the Chinese State: Chinas Maritime Ambitions, the Heritage Foundation, 11/7/2011.



khu trn 50% lng du tiu dng v d kin con s ny s tng ln khong 65% vo nm 202011. Phn ln lng du nhp khu l n t Trung ng, bao gm c Iran v Arp Xt, nn i hi s lu thng n nh ca cc tu ch du n cc cng bin ca Trung Quc. Trn 80% lng du nhp khu ca Trung Quc phi i qua eo bin Mallaca, nm trn bin ng12.

Hnh 2: Thng k v mc tiu th du m ca Trung Quc13.

Nhiu chuyn gia cho rng, chin lc quc gia ca Trung Quc hin nay l phi tip tc duy tr tng trng kinh t14, v ch c gi c nn kinh t tng trng, mi l ch da vng chc cho s nm quyn ca ng Cng sn trn t nc hn mt t dn s ny.

11Dean Cheng, nh ch thch 7. 12 Annual report to congress, Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China, 2009, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defence, United of States of America, tr. 4. 13 Ngun: Chinas Worldwide Quest For Energy Security, International Energy Agency, http://www.oecdchina.org/OECDpdf/china2000.pdf, trang 22. 14 David M. Lampton, The Faces of Chinese Power, Foreign Affairs 86, no. 1 (January/February 2007), tr. 117.



Do , mt vn ny sinh l mt mt Trung Quc rt cn bin thc hin chin lc pht trin ca mnh, nhng mt khc l qu trnh pht trin hin nay khin Trung Quc b l thuc rt nhiu vo bin, c bit l s an ton cho cc tuyn ng giao thng trn bin, trong c bin ng.

III. Trung Quc s dng v lc trong cc tranh chp lnh th trc y ra sao?

d on v kh nng s sng sc mnh qun s ca Trung Quc trong tranh chp bin ng th ta cn xem li Trung Quc s dng qun s trong nhng trng hp no? V v sao?

Khi phn tch v l do cng nh thi im m mt quc gia s dng sc mnh qun s gii quyt tranh chp, nhiu hc gi cho rng l do v th ca gia trong tranh chp b yu i. S yu i v v th ny lm cho quc gia cm thy mnh s khng cn li th trong cuc mc c quyn lc trong gii quyt tranh chp (bargaining power). Li th trong mc c quyn lc c Fravel15 nh ngha bao gm: i) Din tch lnh th tranh chp m quc gia thc chim; ii) Sc mnh qun s ca quc gia c th tiu dit lc lng ca i phng trn vng tranh chp. Khi mt quc gia thy rng v th ca i phng trong tranh chp ngy cng tng ln, ng ngha vi vic v th ca h ngy cng suy gim, th rt c kh nng quc gia s tin hnh bin php qun s khi phc v th ca h, thm ch gia tng v th ca mnh, h cn s dng bin php qun s c th kim sot ton b khu vc tranh chp.

Theo thng k ca Fravel th t khi thnh lp Cng ha nhn dn Trung Hoa ti nay, Trung Quc c 23 tranh chp lnh th vi cc quc gia khc16, trong Trung Quc s dng sc mnh qun s i vi 6 tranh chp. Trong 6 tranh chp ny, Trung Quc 16 ln s dng sc mnh qun s.

Fravel cng nhn thy rng Trung Quc lun s dng bin php qun s trong cc tranh chp lnh th khi h kim sot rt t hoc gn nh khng thc s kim sot vng ang tranh chp17.

i vi vic tranh chp cc hn o ngoi khi th Trung Quc lun hng n vic bo m cho s hin din ca h trn cc o hoc d

15 M. Taylor Fravel, Power Shifps and Escalation (Explaining Chinas Use of Force in Territorial Dispute), International Security, Vol. 32, No. 3 (Winter 2007/08), tr. 46. 16 Fravel, M. Taylor, Nh ch thch 11, t tr. 44-83. 17 Fravel, M. Taylor, ti liu dn, tr. 47.



xa vi t lin nhng li c mt v tr chin lc quan trng hoc c th to ra nhng tim nng kinh t nht nh.

Trong sut cc tranh chp lnh th ca mnh, Trung Quc th hin hai tnh cht quan trng trong vic s dng sc mnh gn lin vi vic cc gi tr trong cuc mc c b suy gim nhanh chng t pha i phng.

Th nht, trong cc cuc tranh chp lnh th t lin, Trung Quc s dng qun s khi phi i mt vi cc lc lng qun s yu hn mnh ca i th. Mc d kh o lng sc mnh qun s ca i th mt cch chnh xc, nhng qun i Trung Quc bao gi cng t ra p o hn cc lc lng qun s ca cc nc lng ging tranh chp. Khng phi ngu nhin m trong cc cuc xung t qun s v lnh th t lin vi n nm 1962, Lin S nm 1969, vi Vit Nam nm 1979, Trung Quc s dng sc mnh qun s. Trong nhng ln , Trung Quc lun p dng vic s dng qun s trn t lin vi nhng i th c sc mnh qun s yu hn mnh.

Th hai, Trung Quc lun s dng v lc khi v th ca h trong cc yu sch lnh th b suy gim, c bit khi h kim sot rt t hoc khng thc s ang kim sot lnh th m h ang yu sch. Trong cc tranh chp kiu ny, Trung Quc cho thy s nhy bn ca h trong nm bt cc im mu cht trong vic to v th thun li trong tranh chp. i vi i Loan chng hn, Trung Quc bt u gy ra cuc khng hong trong 3 giai on, nm 1954, 1958, v nm 1995- 96. i vi cc tranh chp cc o, trn bin ng, Trung Quc dng sc mnh qun s chim ng nhm o pha ng Hong Sa t tay qun i Vit Nam Cng ha nm 1974, chim ng mt s mm ti Trng Sa t bn Vit Nam nm 1988, v ginh quyn kim sot bi Vnh Khn t tay qun i Philippines nm 1995.

Qua nhng cuc xung t ny, chng ta c th thy Trung Quc dng bin php qun s ginh ly li th, kim sot vng tranh chp khi Trung Quc ang th bt li.

Cho n nm 1949, Trung Quc kim sot t hn mt na trong s 4 qun o ngoi khi, cng nh khng kim sot c khu vc o i Loan. Trung Quc phi i u vi s thch thc thc s ca chnh quyn Quc Dn ng vi s h tr ca Hoa K cng nh trn cc o ngoi khi bin ng v bin Hoa ng.

Nm 1951, Trung Quc chnh thc a ra yu sch v ch quyn ca h i vi hai qun o Hong Sa v Trng Sa nhng b t chi, sau ny dn ti vic Trung Quc dng sc mnh chim ot Hong Sa nm 1974. Trung Quc thc hin vic s dng v lc trong mt bi cnh khin v tr ca h trong tranh chp b suy gim khi: i) Qun i Vit Nam Cng ha tch cc m rng s c mt ca h trn Hong



Sa; ii) v cc li ch ngy cng tng ca bin khi, c bit l ti nguyn du m, khi th gii ang bc vo cuc khng hong du m nhng nm 1970.

V th ca Trung Quc ngy cng suy gim khi Vit Nam Cng ha m rng s c mt trn Hong Sa, v th Trung Quc quyt nh s dng v lc ot ly tin c, v kt qu l Trung Quc chim gi ton b Hong Sa.

Qun o Hong Sa gm hai nhm o chnh, nhm Nguyt Thim (Crescen) nm pha Ty Nam qun o, nhm An Vnh (Amphitrite) nm pha ng Bc. Nm 1956 qun i Trung Quc chim o Ph Lm (Woody)18 thuc nhm An Vnh (Amphitrite). Trc , qun i Php chim o Hong Sa (Pattle) thuc nhm Nguyt Thim (Crescen), ri n nm 1956, qun i Vit Nam Cng ha thay chn Php kim sot o ny19.

Trung Quc, khi nhn thy nhng li ch ca cc vng bin ny, quyt nh phi kim sot c tt c cc o thuc Hong Sa, v trc , khong gia nhng nm 1950, cc on tu thng mi ca Trung Quc cn thit phi i qua vng bin cnh khu vc nhm o Nguyt Thim (Crescen). Tuy nhin, nm 1959, qun i Vit Nam Cng ha tng cng kim sot cht ch cc o ny, buc cc ng dn Trung Quc phi trnh xa khu vc nhm o Nguyt Thim (Crescen) ny. Tuy Vit Nam Cng ha khng t ra c hnh ng e da no i vi Trung Quc ti nhm o An Vnh (Amphitrite), vi nh mi bn s kim sot cc khu vc bin thuc xung quanh nhm o m h ang kim sot, nhng cc hnh ng ny ca Vit Nam Cng ha lm suy gim li th ca Trung Quc v v th Trung Quc s dng qun s phc hi li v th li ch ca mnh ti y.

Vo u nhng nm 1970, cc li ch t ti nguyn bin trn bin ng tr nn rt quan trng, c bit ti cc khu vc m cc bn tranh chp. Nm 1970, Philippines hon thnh vic kho st a chn ti cc vng nc ny, v nm 1971 bt u tin hnh khoan thm d20. Vit Nam Cng ha cng bt u vic khai thc ngun du kh ngoi khi, v thng 7 nm 1973 Si Gn k kt 8 hp ng khoan thm d ti nhng ni c cho l c nhiu du m21. Thng 1 v thng 3 nm 1973, Vit Nam Cng ha cng tin hnh kho st a chn ti khu vc

18 Monique Chemillier- Genrdreau, Sovereignty over Paracel and Spratly Islands, Kluwer Law International, 2000, tr. 43. 19 Monique Chemillier Gendreau, nh ch thch 17, tr. 43. 20 Marwyn S. Samuel, Contest for the South China Sea, New York: Methuen, 1982, tr. 90. 21 Marwyn S. Samuel, nh ch thch 19, tr. 98-99.



xung quanh nhm o Nguyt Thim22. Thng 12 nm 1973, Vit Nam Dn ch Cng ha cng cng b cho thy trin vng ca cc ging du ngoi khi Vnh bc B, pha bc ca qun o Hong Sa.

Vi nhng gi tr kinh t ca cc nhm o ngoi khi ngy cng gia tng, cc quc gia khc cng bt u ginh ly nhng cu trc ti Hong Sa, Trng Sa, nhng ni m Trung Quc hon ton khng c s hin din no. cng c cho cc yu sch ca mnh, Philippines chim 5 o v ti Trng Sa trong khong thi gian t nm 1970 n nm 197123. y l ln u tin Philippines c s hin din ti vng lnh th tranh chp ny.

Thng 9 nm 197324, Vit Nam Cng ha tuyn b sp nhp qun o Trng Sa vo a bn tnh Phc Tuy.

Cc hnh ng ca cc quc gia ny ch trong cha y 3 nm y Trung Quc vo th bt li trong tranh chp ny.

p li nhng hnh ng , Trung Quc quyt nh m rng s hin din ca mnh trn nhng hn o ngoi khi bin ng, ni c t s tr gip ca cc lc lng hi qun. Trung Quc s dng cc ng dn gia tng s hin din ca h trn vng bin nhm Nguyt Thim (Crescen) t nm 197325.

Ngy 9/1/1974, cc ng dn Trung Quc t o Hu Nht (Robert) p st ti gn o Hong Sa (Pattle) ni m Vit Nam Cng ha ang ng qun trn . Ngy 11/1, Ngoi trng Trung Quc cng khai thch thc Tuyn b thng 9 nm 1973 ca Vit Nam Cng ha.

Gia thng 1 nm 1974, cc tnh hung i u tr nn cng thng hn. Tip theo cc tuyn b ca Bc Kinh, Si Gn gi thm mt s tu chin ti khu vc nhm o Nguyt Thim (Crescen), trc xut cc ng dn Trung Quc ra khi khu vc ny. T dn ti s kin ngy 19-20/1/1974, m sau Trung Quc ginh c quyn kim sot trn ton b qun o Hong Sa bng sc mnh qun s ca mnh.

Mt trng hp in hnh khc trong vic s dng sc mnh qun s ca Trung Quc l cuc phc kch i vi lc lng bin phng Lin S trn o Zhenbao (Damanskii) trn sng Ussuri ngy 2/3/196926.

22 Hn Chn Hoa (Ch bin) (Bn dch ting Vit), Ng Quc Nam Hi ch o s liu hi bin, ng Phng xut bn x, 1998, tr. 676. 23 Fravel, M. Taylor, ti liu dn, tr. 74. 24 Monique Chemillier- Genrdreau, ti liu dn, tr. 44. 25 Fravel, M. Taylor, ti liu dn, tr. 75. 26 Thomas W. Robinson, The Sino Soviet Border Dispute: Backgroud, Development and The March 1969 Clashes, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 66, No. 4 (Dec, 1972), t tr. 1175 1202.



Trung Quc bt u tranh chp vi Lin S v o ny t u nhng nm 1950. Sau khi nhng cuc i thoi nm 1964 b tht bi, c hai bn bt u tng cng lc lng canh phng ti khu vc tranh chp ny. Trung Quc thy rng cc hnh ng ca bn Lin S nh tng cng cc lc lng qun s a phng lm v tr ca Trung Quc trong tranh chp b suy gim. V sc mnh ca qun i Lin S y cng b suy gim khi phi chia u cho hai khu vc l vng Vin ng Nga v Mng C. Sau s kin qun i S Vit can thip vo Czechoslovakia thng 8 nm 1968, Trung Quc lo ngi vic Lin S s dng qun i can thip vo Trung Quc sau s kin i Cch mng vn ha. Nhn thy sc mnh qun s ca Lin S ti khu vc ny b suy gim, ng thi ngn nga vic Lin S s can thip qun s vo Trung Quc, nn Trung Quc ch ng phc kch tn cng qun i Lin S.

Mt trng hp tip theo na l trng hp nm 1988, Trung Quc chim 6 im trong khu vc Trng Sa sau khi s dng qun i tn cng Vit Nam. Trong s kin ny, Trung Quc tm cch khuy ng s cng thng ca Vit Nam, kt qu l Trung Quc t ch khng c g chim c 6 im ti Trng Sa.

Nhng nm 1970, v Trung quc cha c cc chin hm thc hin nhng cuc chin tm xa, nn khi Trung Quc chim Hong Sa, Trung Quc cha th chim nhng o ti Trng Sa c. Cng thi gian , v th ca Trung Quc trong yu sch ca Trung Quc b suy gim khi Vit Nam, Philippines, v Malaysia c mt trn vng bin ny, trong khi Trung Quc cha c bt k s hin din no trn khu vc ny. y chnh l l do m Trung Quc ra tay Trng Sa.

L do m Trung Quc tip tc dng sc mnh qun s chim bi Vnh Khn nm 1995 l do M mi rt khi cc cn c qun s Philippines, y khu vc ny trong trng thi chn khng quyn lc. y l dp tt Trung Quc gia tng s hin din ca h Trng Sa, iu ny khin Trung Quc tip tc khng nh v th ca h trong cuc mc c quyn lc trn bin ng.

Trong cuc chin tranh bin gii gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc nm 1979, mc ch ln ca Trung Quc l ngn chn nh hng ngy cng gia tng ca Lin S ti khu vc ng Nam .

S gia tng v th l m t r nht l do v sao v khi no Trung Quc s dng v lc trong tranh chp lnh th. Trung Quc cho thy s nhy bn ca h khi v th ca h trong tranh chp b st gim, c bit khi gp mt i th khng mnh hoc khi h kim sot rt t hoc gn nh cha kim sot phn lnh th ang tranh chp.



IV. Thy g qua cc Tuyn b chnh thc v cc hnh ng ca Trung Quc gn y

Ch tnh trong hai nm gn y, Trung Quc cho thy cc lp trng v yu sch ca h i vi bin ng, th hin qua 3 bn Cng hm gi ti Lin Hp Quc.

Nm 2009 l nm m theo quy nh ca Cng c, cc quc gia ven bin phi trnh cc bo co v thm lc a m rng27 ca mnh ln y ban ranh gii thm lc a ca Lin Hp Quc (vit tt l CLCS). Ngy 06/05 Vit Nam v Malaysia c trnh ln CLCS mt Bo co chung v thm lc a m rng ca hai nc28, cng khi , Vit Nam cng gi mt Bo co ring ca mnh ln CLCS29.

Ngy 07/05/2009, Chnh ph Cng ha nhn dn Trung Hoa gi Cng hm phn i i vi Bo co chung v thm lc a m rng ca Vit Nam30 v Malaysia cng nh Bo co v thm lc a m rng ca ring Vit Nam31, trong hai Cng hm phn i ny c km theo mt bn c hnh ng li b.

Ngy 11/5/2009, Trung Quc gi ln Lin Hp Quc bn Bo co v thm lc a m rng ngoi 200 hi l ca nc Cng ha nhn dn Trung Hoa32. Bn bo co ny yu cu xem xt m rng thm lc a ngoi 200 hi l ti khu vc bin Hoa ng.

Ngy 5/4/2011, Philippines gi mt Cng hm ln Lin Hp Quc phn i ng li b ca Trung Quc: yu sch ca Cng ha nhn dn Trung Hoa v cc vng nc lin quan cng nh y bin v lng t di y bin (c nh km vi Cng hm s CML/17/2009 v Cng hm s CML/18/2009) c ni trn y, bn ngoi cc

27 Ngy 13/09/2009 l hn cht cc quc gia phi np Bo co v thm lc a m rng ca quc gia mnh ln CLCS. 28 Malaysia-CHXHCN Vit Nam, Bo co chung ln U ban Ranh gii Thm lc a theo iu 76.8 UNCLOS lin quan n vng bin pha Nam, Bo co tm tt, 5/2009. 29 CHXHCN Vit Nam, Bo co ln U ban Ranh gii Thm lc a theo iu 76.8 UNCLOS, Bo co ring lin quan n Thm lc a m rng ca Vit Nam: vng bin pha Bc (VNM-N), Tm tt Bo co, 4/2009. 30 CHND Trung Hoa, Cng hm gi Tng th k Lin hp quc, New York, 7/5/2009, CML/17/2009. 31 CHND Trung Quc, Cng hm gi Tng th k Lin hp quc, New York, 7/5/2009, CML/18/2009. 32http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/preliminary/chn2009preliminaryinformation_english.pdf



cu trc a cht ca KIG, cc vng nc lin quan ny khng c c s no trong lut quc t, c bit l Cng c Lut bin nm 1982 33.

Ngy 14/4/2011 Trung Quc gi cng hm phn i li Cng hm ngy 05/04/2011 ca Philippines34.

Trong 2 Cng hm CML/17 v CML/18, Trung Quc cho rng Trung Quc c ch quyn khng th tranh ci i vi cc qun o bin Nam Trung Hoa (bin ng) v c quyn ch quyn v quyn ti phn i vi cc vng nc lin quan cng nh y bin v lng t di y bin35.

Sau ny cc pht ngn ca cc quan chc Trung Quc v bin ng cng s dng tng t cc li l trong cc Cng hm ny36.

Gi km theo hai cng hm ny l mt bn gy nhiu tranh ci, l bn c hnh ng li b. Nhng kin v xut x v quan im php l i vi ng li b ny cn rt khc nhau. Tuy nhin, y l ln u tin Trung Quc gi Cng hm c bn ny trc cng ng quc t, mc d cho n nay, Trung Quc vn cha h gii thch quy ch php l lin quan n ng li b ny.

33 11-00494, No. 000228, http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/mysvnm33_09/phl_re_chn_2011.pdf... 34 CML8/2011, New York, 14/4/2011. http://southchinaseastudies.org/en/datbase-on-south-china-sea-study/doc_details/53-chinese-note-verbale-cml82011-to-the-united-nations- 35 Xem ti ch thch 29, 30, on 2. 36 Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gangs Remarks on Malaysian Prime Minister Claiming Sovereignty Over the Danwan Reef, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Peoples Republic of China, March 6, 2009, www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/2535/t541186.htm;

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yus Regular Press Conference on January 24, 2008, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Peoples Republic of China, January 25, 2008, www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/2511/t402972.htm;

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Peoples Republic of China, The Issue of South China Sea, June 2000, www.fas.org/news/china/2000/china-000600.htm;

Mingjiang Li, Reconciling Assertiveness and Cooperation? Chinas Changing Approach to the South China Sea Dispute, Security Challenges, vol. 6, no. 2 (Winter 2010), 49-68, www.securitychallenges.org.au/ArticlePDFs/vol6no2Mingjiang.pdf;

Jianming Shen, Chinas Sovereignty over the South China Sea Islands: A Historical Perspective, Chinese Journal of International Law, no. 1 (2002), http://chinesejil.oxfordjournals.org/content/1/1/94.full.pdf.



Trong bn Bo co v thm lc a m rng ti khu vc bin Hoa ng, Trung Quc li khng nh: Trung Quc bo lu quyn thit lp cc bo co v ranh gii ngoi ca thm lc a m rng vt qu 200 hi l trn bin Hoa ng v cc khu vc bin khc37. Trong vn bn ny, Trung Quc c nh km 4 bn v cc bn m t chi tit a l trn bin Hoa ng. Tuy nhin, trong vn bn ny lp l nhc n vic bo lu quyn ca Trung Quc trong vic trnh cc yu sch tng t trn cc vng bin khc. C l trong bao gm c bin ng chng? hay l c vng bin pha ngoi o Hi Nam v tnh Qung Chu vn khng cn l vng bin ang tranh chp.

Bn Cng hm ngy 14/4/2011 ca Trung Quc gn nh nhc li ni dung ca hai Cng hm nm 2009, nhng c s dng nhiu ngn ng chi tit hn. V vy, n dng nh r rng hn cc vn bn trc ca Trung Quc tng trnh ln Lin Hp Quc. Nhng nh mt nh nghin cu nhn nh Trung Quc ln u tin kt hp quy ch php l gia cc o vi khi nim lnh hi, vng c quyn kinh t v thm lc a trong lut bin38.

Vi cc vn bn trn y, Trung Quc cho thy s quyt on ngy cng gia tng i vi cc yu sch bin ca h v d nh khng nh ch quyn khng th tranh ci trong 2 cng hm, ri gi km 2 cng hm bn c ng li b, ng thi khng nh mnh c quyn m rng thm lc a ti bin Hoa ng cng nh trn cc vng bin khc. iu chng t thi quyt on ca Trung Quc i vi cc yu sch bin ngy cng gia tng v thm ch cn cho thy Trung Quc ang c xu hng m rng thm phm vi ca cc yu sch.

Tuy nhin, cc ngn t trong vn bn ny ca Trung Quc cho thy khng c g khc bit g nhiu so vi nhng tuyn b n phng ca Trung Quc trc y. Nhng vn bn ny ch yu l p li yu cu v thi hn cho vic trnh bo co v thm lc a m rng ln y ban ranh gii thm lc a Lin Hp Quc hoc l phn i cc tuyn b ca cc quc gia khc. Cng hm CML/17 phn i Bo co chung v thm lc a m rng ca Malaysia v Vit Nam, Cng hm CML/18 phn i Bo co v thm lc a m rng ca ring Vit Nam. Bo co s b l cng khai yu sch i vi bin Hoa ng, p ng yu cu

37 Xem ti http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/preliminary/chn2009preliminaryinformation_english.pdf, on 10. 38 Robert Beckman, Islands or Rocks? Evolving Dispute in South China Sea, RSIS Commentary no. 75/2011, May 10, 2011, www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0752011.pdf;

Nguyn Hng Thao, Cuc chin php l mi v ng li b bin ng, Hi tho quc gia v Bin ng ln th hai, H Ni 4/2011.



v thi hn cui ca LHQ. Cng hm ngy 14/4/2011 l phn i Cng hm ngy 05/04/2011 ca Philippines.

Hu ht nhng t ng trong hai cng hm ngy 08/05/2009 u lp li cc pht ngn trc y ca chnh ph Trung Quc, v d on u tin Trung Quc c ch quyn khng th tranh ci i vi cc qun o bin Nam Trung Hoa v cc vng nc k cn nh mt ip khc c Trung Quc lp i li li k t nhng nm 1970.

Tuy nhin, on th hai trong hai cng hm ny c nhc bao gm quyn ch quyn v quyn ti phn i vi cc vng nc lin quan nh y bin v lng t di y bin th li khng c trong cc tuyn b trc y ca Trung Quc, cho d vn bn ny c qu quyt rng cc quan im trong cc cng hm ny ph hp vi cc tuyn b trc ca chnh ph Trung Quc v c s tha nhn rng ri ca cng ng quc t.

Tuy rng vn bn ny c s dng cc thut ng c nhc ti trong UNCLOS nhng trong cm t ch quyn khng th tranh ci th cho thy Trung Quc dng nh ch yu sch ch quyn i vi cc o bin ng, nhng vi cm t bao gm c quyn ch quyn th dng nh Trung Quc li mun nhc ti vng c quyn kinh t v thm lc a. Trong Cng hm ngy 14/4/2011 th Trung Quc khng nh rng cc o Trng Sa c y lnh hi, vng c quyn kinh t v thm lc a.

Quan im ca Vit Nam v cc nc ASEAN39 trong tranh chp dng nh cho rng cc o Trng Sa kh p ng c yu cu ca iu 121 UNCLOS. Hu ht cc o thuc Trng Sa u kh p ng c yu cu thch hp cho cuc sng ca con ngi hoc c mt i sng kinh t ring nn ch c coi l theo khon 3 iu 121 UNCLOS. V v th n cng khng th c vng c quyn kinh t v thm lc a c.

Nhng quan im ny trong Cng hm ngy 14/4 li chng li quan im cng trong mt Cng hm khc ca Trung Quc ngy 06/02/200940 khi cho rng Okinotorishima (nm trn bin Hoa ng) khng th coi l o theo iu 121 UNCLOS, v khng th c vng c quyn kinh t v thm lc a xung quanh Okinotorishima.

Thm na, mc d Trung Quc c km theo bn c ng li b trong hai Cng hm thng 5/2009, nhng Trung Quc cng vn

39 Centre For International Law, National University of Singapore, 16-17 June 2011, tr. 10-11. 40 http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/jpn08/chn_6feb09_e.pdf



khng xc nh r Trung Quc mun yu sch g i vi ng li b .

Khi xem xt cc chnh sch ca Trung Quc i vi bin ng, Mark J. Valencia nhn xt l: tng cng sc mnh ca Hi qun; m rng v bnh trng s hin din thc t ca Trung Quc ti cc khu vc tranh chp, do vy hp thc ha vic chim ng ca h; thu ht cc cng ty du kh phng Ty n thm d khai thc ti cc vng tranh chp; khng khng i thng lng song phng vi tng quc gia tham gia tranh chp41.

c bit i vi khu vc Trng Sa, Trung Quc p dng chnh sch 3 khng gii quyt vn Trng Sa: Khng xc nh r rng cc yu sch; khng gii quyt a phng; v khng quc t ha tranh chp, loi tr s tham gia ca cc quc gia bn ngoi42, c bit l Hoa K.

Vi nm tr li y, khc vi nhng tuyn b, nhng hnh ng ca Trung Quc li cho thy mt gng mt khc, nhng s kin ni bt l:

1. Trung Quc n phng ra lnh cm nh bt c bin ng. Lnh cm nh bt c ny c Trung Quc n phng cng b t nm 1999. Lnh cm nh bt c ny ca Trung Quc mi u khng p dng i vi cc tu nh c nc ngoi. Tuy nhin, k t 2009 tr li y, rt nhiu tu nh c Vit Nam v cc ng dn b lc lng hi gim Trung Quc bt b, i tin chuc hoc m chm. Gn y, lc lng hi gim cn ct cp thm d ca tu Vit Nam khi ang hot ng trong vng c quyn kinh t 200 hi l .

2. Trung Quc ra sc s dng mt mt l e da bin php qun s, mt khc kt hp cc bin php chnh tr v kinh t gy sc p buc cc quc gia khc khng c khai thc trn cc vng bin thuc c quyn kinh t v thm lc a ca h. Tuy nhin, Trung Quc li gia tng cc hot ng thm d khai thc, cng nh cc cuc tp trn ln trn vng bin ny. Cc hot ng ny ca pha Trung Quc ngy cng gia tng nh mt n lc h tr cho cc yu sch ca h.

V. Kt lun

Vi 3 gc nhn nh trn, chng ta nhn thy:

41 Mark J. Valencia, Jon M. Vandyke and Noel A. Ludwig, Sharing the Resources of the South China Sea, Martinus Nijhoff Pubilsher, 1997, tr. 77. 42 Mark J. Valencia et al, nh ch thch 35, tr. 77.



Tham vng pht trin ca Trung Quc rt ln. H lun kht khao thc hin gic m Trung Quc l phi vt ln Hoa K, tr thnh cng quc s 1 trn th gii, thc hin t tng bnh thin h hay thng tr th gii. Trong chin lc pht trin ca h, bin l yu t c bit quan trng i vi Trung Quc, c bit l bin ng vi nhiu ngun ti nguyn, cc tuyn ng thng mi bin quan trng v c yu t an ninh quc gia. Tuy nhin, qu trnh pht trin ca h li tr nn l thuc rt nhiu vo bin, c bit l cc con ng vn ti bin chin lc m eo bin Malacca l mt v d.

Trong qu kh, i vi cc tranh chp lnh th ca mnh, Trung Quc ch s dng v lc trong mt s trng hp. Cc trng hp m Trung Quc s dng bin php qun s l khi: i) Trung Quc nm chc phn thng trong trn chin, trc mt i th c lc lng qun s ti vng tranh chp yu hn hn h; ii) Khi v tr ca Trung Quc ti cc tranh chp th yu, c bit l khi Trung Quc t kim sot hoc gn nh khng kim sot lnh th tranh chp , Trung Quc c xu hng s dng v lc ginh ly u th vt tri trc cc i th. Hin nay, xu hng m Trung Quc s dng v lc trong tranh chp bin ng l khng nhiu, bi v v tr ca Trung Quc trong tranh chp hin nay khng h b suy yu, t ch thc s khng c hin din no ti Hong Sa, Trng Sa th nay Trung Quc chim gi ton b Hong Sa, mt phn ca Trng Sa. Thm na, s pht trin kinh t Trung Quc b l thuc vo cc ngun du m nhp khu i qua bin ng, v vy, nu Trung Quc dng v lc, con ng vn ti du m trn bin ng s c nguy c b phong ta. Nu l nh vy, Trung Quc s gp kh khn trong gi mc tng trng kinh t, khng gi c tng trng kinh t, ng Cng sn Trung Quc kh gi c v tr cm quyn nh hin nay.

Tuy nhin, qua cc tuyn b ca Trung Quc cng nh cc hnh ng quyt on ngy cng gia tng ca h gn y, c th thy chnh sch ca Trung Quc i vi tranh chp bin ng. chnh l vic dng s e da qun s, s dng cc sc p kinh t, chnh tr kt hp vi cc hot ng nhm h tr cho cc yu sch ca h trn bin ng. H mun khng dng sc mnh qun s nhng vn c th t c mc tiu c chim c bin ng. Bo co v an ninh Trung Quc nm 2011 ca Hc Vin nghin cu quc phng ca Nht Bn cho hay, Trung Quc ang tin hnh ba cuc chin nm ngoi cuc chin qun s. Ba cuc chin l: cuc chin truyn thng; cuc chin tm l v cuc chin lut php43. Chnh sch ny ca h lun l nht qun v xuyn sut, tuy h trnh by vi th gii ht sc mp m, c th lc vn dng

43 National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan, NIDS China Security Report, 3/2011, tr. 10.



UNCLOS, lc vn dng yu sch ng li b ch yu duy tr c li ch ca h trn bin ng.

Trung Quc mun g?*

Ross Terrill

i hc Harvard, M

Khi Trung Quc ln u tin lm M t m vo cui th k 18, chngta mun tr v la ca h. Cc nh truyn gio M v cc thng nhnn Qung Chu v cc cng khc chng bn tm ngh xem Trung Qucc th mun g chng ta - ch l phc m Kit gio, tiu dng lt vtv thuc l, dng nh h cho l nh vy. Trong nhiu nm k t khi yn nay, ngi M t c dp cn nhc li cu hi ny. Khun mu lchs l nc M nh hng n Trung Quc, v ng lc khng ngangbng t n cao im trong lin minh vi chnh ph Quc Dn ngkhp khnh ca Tng Gii Thch chng cc cng quc pht xt trongTh Chin th II. Trong nhng nm 1940, ngi ta ngh rng c vngTrung Quc n gin ch l hi phc t ch thng tr ca Nht, s nghoi, mt on kt, v tham nhng.

Khi Trung Quc ca chng ta(chnh quyn Quc Dn ng caTng Gii Thch) b tan thnh khi vo cui thp nin 1940, v nhngngi Cng Sn chim ly Bc Kinh, th Trung Quc tr thnh mt KKhc. Trong nhng nm gay gt sau chin thng ca Mao Trch ngvo nm 1949, Trung Quc vt ra ngoi vng nh hng ca chngta. Nhng chng ta vn bit Trung Quc mun g: Mao cnh borng ng s nghing v mt pha,v ngay sau ng ta tuyn b,Lin X hm nay l ngy mai ca Trung Quc.Chng ta l bn quc, v Mao chng li chng ta.

* Phng dch bi What does China Want?, Wilson Quarterly, Ma thu 2005.

Ross Terrill, chuyn gia nghin cu Trung tm Nghin cu ng Fairbank thuc i hc Harvard , l tc gi cun Mao (1999), TrungQuc trong Thi i ca chng ta (1992), v B Mao (2000). Cun schgn y nht ca ng, ch Trung Hoa mi, c gii ca Los AngelesTimes Book nm 2004.


S 22thng 8, 2011

Ross Terrill | Trung Quc mun g? 29


Sau khi Moscow v Bc Kinh xch mch vo u nhng nm 1960 vchin tranh Vit Nam leo thang sau trong cng thp k, th nhngmong mun ca Trung Quc tr nn phc tp hn. Trong ci gi l Cchmng Vn ha ca nhng nm 1960, nhng lnh vc Mao Trch ngquan tm c v phi l i vi M, cng nh i vi Moscow v hu htcc nc trn th gii. Tuy nhin, vo nm 1971 Bc Kinh cho Tngthng Richard Nixon thy l h mun nghing v pha M gip mtnc M m h cho l yu i i trng vi s ni ln ca Lin X.

Ngy nay, mt ln na, cc mc tiu ca Trung Quc tr nn khnhn ra, nhng s hiu bit cc mc tiu ny li bc xc hn bao gi ht.Sau khi Lin X tan r vo nm 1991 v s lan trn ca dn ch trnkhp th gii, Trung Quc l mt hin tng kh hiu: thnh cng kinht di mt ch cng sn. Th gii bit r Hoa K bnh vc ci g: l th trng t do v dn ch bt c ni no c th. V cng bitOsama bin Laden mun ci g: l s khi phc thn quyn ca ccgio ch o Hi. Mc tiu ca Trung Quc th khng r rng nh th.Ngi Trung Quc ngh n tin, trong thi hu Mao, hu Lin X,mun g? Cu hi ny lm nhiu ngi M thc mc - v u lo.

Mc d nh hng ca Trung Quc ln cao trong nhng nm qua,Bc Kinh vn cn xu hng c x theo kiu phn ng, thay v theo uinhng mc tiu r rt, ngoi bin gii ca h. (Nhn mnh ca ngidch: Bi ny c xut nn nm 2005.) iu ny lm mt s ngi anlng, h cho rng Trung Quc l mt cng quc thn trng, thm chbo th. V, trong mc no , quc gia y qu l vy. Song ykhng phi l trn cu chuyn. Tht ra, Bc Kinh ch c x kiu phngth trong ba kha cnh c bn: Mt l, h t thy mnh nh ang hiphc t tnh trng lc hu kinh t; hai l, h i ph, trong s nn lngthm lng, vi s yu ui ca h so vi sc mnh ca M, v ba l, htham gia vo nhiu t chc quc t ch vi mc ch hn hp l ngnnga chng trnh ngh s ca cc t chc ny gy phin toi cho TrungQuc. Cch hnh x phng th ny c th cho n tng rng Bc Kinhc s lng l: liu nn tm cch tr v v tr ng u chu nh thi quc trc y, thu Vng quc Trung tm, hoc nn tham gia cim nhng ngi khng phi Trung Quc gi l cng ng quc t.Ttnhin, c th ch n gin l Trung Quc ang chi tr ch thi, che giunhng m hin nay dng nh qu kh thc hin.

Khng ging nh M hay tuyn b m cc mc tiu ca h, TrungQuc c v mun gi cc nh ca h trong bc kn. Nu bn c ccbi pht biu ca ch tch H Cm o, cng l lnh o ng Cng snv l ngi ng u qun i, hoc nhng pht biu ca ngi tinnhim ca ng l Giang Trch Dn, th ha bnh v pht trindngnh l mc tiu ca chnh sch i ngoi ca Trung Quc. Cm t nya thng tin nhng cng nh lc hng. Ha bnh v pht trin lphng tin ch khng phi l cu cnh cho chnh sch i ngoi ca



Bc Kinh. Ni rng chng l mc tiu ca Trung Quc th cng nh nirng mc tiu ngy mai ca H Cm o l s mc qun v nh rng.

Trong th gii ngy nay, Trung Quc l khc thng v h va mtphn l ch v mt phn l quc gia hin i. Mt nh nc ng trtheo ch ngha Mc-Lnin hin i ha c thit lp trn mt truynthng cai tr thnh cng rt lu i v tinh thn quc nm trong truynthng y. c tnh ny ko di ch chuyn quyn vo mt k nguynm cc ch thng l a quc gia. ng kinh ngc l Cng sn TrungQuc tha k bin gii ca ch nh Thanh vo thi im cc i, baogm Ty Tng, nam Mng C, v ty Hi c thi tng l ngTurkestan. Song, mt Trung Quc hin i ha ang b ging co: Nntip tc ch v vinh quang ca Trung Quc? Hay l theo mt nnchnh tr hu quc t nhin ny sinh t x hi v nn kinh t mi nhhnh nh ca Thng Hi, Qung Chu, v Bc Kinh hin nay?

Lc thc y chuyn ha Vng quc Trung tm ngy xa thnh mtb quyn khng da trn o l Nho gio nhng trn quyn lc kinh t,l vn cn, nhng gp hai lc phn. Mt l, n mt lc no , s tythuc ln nhau gia cc nc v kinh t v vn ha trn th gii s ngn tc phong gia trng chnh tr. Hai l, Hoa K, Nht Bn, n , vcc cng quc khc c th s khng cho php c mt tn-Vng qucTrung tm nh th.

V Trung Quc l mt nh nc c ti, ta khng th bit ngi dnTrung Quc mun g. Ta li cng kh nh hng tng lai nn vnminh Trung Quc, chng hn kh th ni rng n s ng vi oHi hoc vi nn vn minh phng Ty hay khng. Chng ta c th trli cu hi v cc mc tiu ca Trung Quc ch da theo cc hnh ngca nh nc c ng Bc Kinh hin nay. Chn ng k slm nn Uban thng v B Chnh tr ng Cng sn Trung Quc (CSTQ) angtm kim iu g cho Trung Quc? Chng ta c th nhn ra su mc tiutrong hnh ng ca h.

Trung Quc theo ui mt chnh sch i ngoi nhm ti a ha sn nh trong nc. iu ny cng ng vi nhiu quc gia khc, nhngvi Cng ho Nhn dn Trung Quc (CHNDTQ) th tm quan trng can rt cao hn. Bc Kinh hu-1949 t khi xem vic kim sot nhn dnca h l vic d dng, cng nh vic ny khng uc coi l d dngbi cc nh cm quyn Trung Quc qua 150 nm b nc ngoi chn pv nhng kh khn trong nc nh du s suy tn ca triu i nhThanh. T bui u ca CHNDTQ cho n nay, Bc Kinh lun cnh gicvic b mt kh nng kim sot cc vng xa xi.



Ba tnh ln nht ca Trung Quc, Tn Cng, Ty Tng v NiMng v mt lch s khng phi lnh th Trung Quc, v ngi dn aphng khc bit v tn gio, ngn ng, vn ha, v cch sng inhnh so vi ngi Hn. i ph vi cc nhm dn thiu s c th thchc lp hn l thch b Trung Quc thng tr khin Bc Kinh phidng n cc bin php na thc dn. Ty Tng, gio dc i hc chdnh cho cc nhng ai ni ting Hoa, c vng pha ty rng ln caTrung Quc u theo gi Bc Kinh, v dn s Hi gio Duy Ng Nh(Uyghur) Tn Cng c c lm long ra bng bin php nhpc ni b ca Trung Quc, ch l vi v d. Ngoi ra, lun iu caCSTQ nh l ngun mch ca s tht cng nh ca quyn lc to ranhiu khu vc cm tinh thn phi c theo di st. Bt k khc bit nov trit l cng b xem, c hoc khng c bin minh, nh l mt mi eda chnh tr i vi CSTQ. Ch ny tin bn vi tin ca bn chkhng tin bn vi u c ca bn.

Nm 1998, trong mt chuyn thm Nht Bn, Giang Trch Dn c 20 bi din vn gy sng st v Th Chin th II. Trng th k nicc Nht Bn cui cng nn lng m ni rng chng phi nhng lilm y u sau lng chng ta ri sao?. Nhng ti li ca Nht Bntrong qu kh s khng bao gi ng sau chng tac, khi no mnh nc quc Bc Kinh cn cm thy nhu cu chng t s chnhng ca h vi ngi dn Trung Quc bng cch ht to bn qun phitNht!. Nhng bt an kiu ny nh hnh chnh sch ngai giao caTrung Quc. V vy, nhng giao dch vi Nam l nhm mc ch lmsuy yu mi lin kt gia Ty Tng v chnh ph Ty Tng lu vong n -- tng t, nhiu giao dch vi Trung l nhm lm gim hyvng ly khai ca ngi Duy Ng Nh (Uyghur) Tn Cng. Cngchnh mc tiu kim sat trong nc chi phi chnh sch ca TrungQuc i vi Mng C, Hn Quc, Thi Lan v cc nc lng gingkhc. Tm li, CHNDTQ l mt bn ch a dng, vi nhiu c dn ccc lin h chng tc, tn gio, hoc lch s vi cc dn tc nm ngaybn kia bin gii ca Trung Quc. V CHNDTQ l mt ch chuynch m, dng nh i ph vi nhng c mng m h gy cho h, cx ging nh nhng ngi cai tr s hi ngi dn ca chnh h.

Nh th, mc tiu u tin ca Trung Quc l s n nh ni b.

Mc tiu th hai ca chnh sch ngoi giao ca Bc Kinh l duy trtng trng kinh t ca Trung Quc. Khi ch ngha Mc phai nht dn vkhng c trit l cng cng chnh thc no thay th n th mt mc sngc nng cao v nim t ho quc gia chnh ng ha mt ch khng bao gi phi i mt vi bu c. Nhng thnh tu kinh t trongphn t th k k t khi ng Tiu Bnh cm quyn lnh o trong thik hu-Mao chc chn l ng c gi gn. Nn kinh t tng gp bnln v kch c, v tc tng trng hng nm vn tip tc mc 8-9%(theo s liu ca chnh ph). Ngoi thng ni chung tng gp 10;



gn y, khi lng giao thng vi nc ngoi tng ln 25% minm. S tng trng kinh t hu-Mao c y mnh bi vn ncngoi, v cc khu vc th ven bin c hng li nhiu nht tthng mi, cng ngh v k nng qun l m u t ny mang li.Nng dn kh hn trong nhng t ci cch u tin, nhng sau th b tt li pha sau c dn thnh ph mt cch th thm, ch vo khong15% nng dn c hng nhng th thng c trong cuc sng catng lp trung lu hin i: in thoi di ng, truy cp internet, xe hi,s hu nh, v du lch ra nc ngai.

Bc Kinh ang cn thn hoch nh mt chnh sch i ngoi duytr tng trng kinh t, nhm bo ton tnh chnh ng ca ch . ll do khin Trung Quc phi chp nhn cc i hi kht khe ca Mv nhng nc khc c gia nhp T chc Thng mi Th gii vonm 2001, cng do m Trung Quc c nhng hnh ng tung hngtng i minh bch v t gi gia nhn dn t v la, v cng do cs t km ch ca Trung Quc trong thng su va qua khi c cho phpmt nh ngoi giao o thot ca Trung Quc c quy ch thng trti c. (Trung Quc ngy cng ph thuc vo kh thin nhin ha lng,than , v qung st ca c.) Chc chn mt phn trnh thit hi cholng xut khu khng l ca Trung Quc sang th trng M m BcKinh nh ch cc v th tn la khiu khch t chc ngoi b binca i Loan nhm biu l s khng hi lng ca Trung Quc i vimt ng c vin ng h c lp trong cuc bu c tng thng ca hno ny nm1996. (Tng thng Bill Clinton phi hai tu sn bay nvng ln cn.) V vo nm 2001, sau mt v va chm gia cc my bayqun s ca M v ca Trung Quc gn o Hi Nam, Bc Kinh tngt ngng nhng li to ting chng b quynban u ca h v traotr ton b nhn vin phi hnh M - mt ln na bo v mi quan hsong phng ct li cn cho vic y mnh hin i ha kinh t caTrung Quc.

Mc tiu th ba ca chnh sch i ngoi ca Bc Kinh l duy tr mtmi trng ha bnh trong v tr a l phc tp ca Trung Quc.CHNDTQ l nc duy nht trn th gii phi i ph vi 14 nc lngging tip gip, by trong s chia s ng bin gii di hn 600dm, v bn nc khc gn bn b bin qu di ca Trung Quc. Trong30 nm u ca ch , CHNDTQ tin hnh chin tranh vi tt cnm nc cnh bn sn ca h. Trong chin tranh Triu Tin, h phichu thit hi vi hn mt triu thng vong. Trung Quc nh nhauvi n vo nm 1959 v 1962. H gi 320.000 cn b k thut vb i phng khng gip H Ch Minh ginh chin thng trong chintranh Vit Nam. Nm 1969, hai nc xem l x hi ch ngha anh em lMoscow v Bc Kinh vung kim nh nhau sng Amur v Ussuripha ng bc. Trong nm 1979, Trung Quc ca ng Tiu Bnh tncng Vit Nam dy cho H Ni mt bi hc.



ng khen cho Trung Quc v ng lm cho cc nc chu nhnhm, vo nhng nm 1980 Bc Kinh theo ui mt chnh sch ingoi mi ca nhng n ci v mi pha, m h gi l mt chnhsch ha bnh v c lp.Khng tin hnh thm chin tranh sau nm1979, Bc Kinh nhanh chng lm du cc mi quan h vi Lin X, hngn hng ro b v vi Indonesia, bt ng cng nhn Hn Quc v nhtkhn vo c hng gin d ca Bc Triu Tin, thit lp v chia s nhimv ngi canh cng vi Moscow Trung , tham gia sinh hot cc tchc quc t hng thng, v cui cng tr nn dnh cht vi Hoa K(ngoi tr trong mi quan h qun s) hn bt c lc no trong lch sTrung Quc. Trong mt s thay i rt ni bt t nhng ci l ngi vi hu ht lch s ca CHNDTQ, Bc Kinh ngy nay khng c kth.

S thn trng ch thi vn ang tip tc. Trong cc cuc m phnsu bn ang din ra hin nay (Bi ny ng nm 2005 - Ngi dch) vbn o Triu Tin, Bc Kinh vi kiu cch mp m, ang theo ui mtchnh sch (khng nm trong li ch ca M) gn gi ha bnh bng cchbm vo tnh trng hin hu. Mt t nc Triu Tin b chia ct, dvn tip tc vi nhng quay cung sn tc gy trong chnh sch ca BnhNhng, s tt cho Trung Quc hn l mt Triu Tin thng nht vinh hng kh tin on. Trung cng vy, Bc Kinh ch chn cccuc m phnv phn nh cm mc bin gii v v cc vn lykhaing y cc vn xung di thm v duy tr nguyn trng.

Khi bc sang th k 21 th r rng l Bc Kinh khng cn theochnh sch nhng n ci v mi pha, h i sang t nh nn mngcho mt phin bn Trung Quc ca Hc thuyt Monroe ng . Mctiu th t ny ca Trung Quc tt nhin l khng c ni ra. TrungQuc c thay th M trong vai tr gy nh hng chnh yu ng .Tht khng may, cc d n do Washington cm u Afghanistan vIraq c th lm cho chnh quyn ca Tng thng Bush v cng chngM qun s chun b m Bc Kinh ang tin hnh cho s thng trtrong tng lai. ng l M phi ch tm st sao ti nhng ng thiny.

Mc tiu th t da vo uy tn ln cao ca Trung Quc do khng bxo trn bi hu qu ca cuc khng hong ti chnh chu 1997-1998,v vo s thnh cng kinh t trong hai thp k ca nc ny. C th hn,d vn l tiu cc, ch ch ca Trung Quc tr nn kh r rng. Trnmt t vn ton cu m cc li ch Trung Quc v M trng hp, hocBc Kinh khng th chng li mt cch c hiu qu chnh sch ca M,th hoc h s i theo M, hoc b phiu vng mt, hoc phn iWashington mt cch yu t. Nhng chu , cc nh lnh o TrungQuc ang lm nhiu th lm nn lng v loi M ra ngai. H tmcch chn mt cy nm gia Nht Bn v M trong mi c hi. H ththm trong tai Australia rng s tt cho Canberra hn nu ch nhn Chu



ch khng nhn qua bn kia Thi Bnh Dng. Trong thng mi hai(nm 2005, ch thch ca ngi dch), mt ct mc quan trng l hingh thng nh ng hp ti Malaysia m khng c i din caM, mt phn v p lc ca Trung Quc. Bc Kinh coi hi ngh thngnh ny nh mt bc tin ti hnh thnh mt t chc khu vc ng khng bao gm M.

Trn din trng ng Nam , c th nghe khng nhm ln khc dou mt Hc thuyt Monroe Trung Quc Myanmar v nhiu nckhc. Myanmar nhn c vin tr ng k ca Trung Quc, bao gm ckinh ph cho cc d n c s h tng quan trng. Cc nh lnh oMyanmar lo ngi vic Hn ha min bc Myanmar, ni m ngi gcHn sng v bun bn. Nhng cng ging nh nc Myanmar ch hungy xa phi triu cng cho thin triu Trung Quc trong nhiu th k,nhng n ci vi Bc Kinh l mt chnh sch bo him cho Myanmar.Kt qu l Myanmar bc vo vng nh hng ca Trung Quc nhLo hin nay. Thi Lan v thm ch Malaysia c th l cc ng vintrong tng lai.

Trong khi y, Bc Kinh vung qun mt nhn thc v Trung Quc nhmt nc ngang bng vi M - mc tiu qu gi th nm. Hy xemchuyn ving thm M ca Giang Trch Dn nm 1997. T New YorkTimes tng thut Cc nh m phn M chun b cho chuyn thm nirng h bi ri v cch m cc i tc Trung Quc ca h dng nh tra coi trng qu mc cc chi tit v nghi thc v biu tng.Nhng thny bao gm kch thc v mu sc ca thm, v tr trong cc bc nh schp ca ng Giang, ca biu tng Veritas ca i hc Harvard vchung T Do ca Philadelphia, v kiu dng v mu m cc c vt caGiang Trch Dn v Tng thng Clinton s mang. Tt c cc chi tit c dn dng lm ni thm hnh nh Trung Quc l ngang hngvi M. Sau chuyn ving thm, mt x lun ca t (New York)Times chc lm phn khi Bc Kinh: [ng Giang] dng s xuthin ca ng vi ng Clinton t th hin mnh nh mt chnh khchc th gp g mt cch ngang hng vi nh lnh o ca quc gia giunht v mnh nht th gii.

Nm sau , Clinton i Trung Quc, v Bc Kinh cng lp li bi bntng t c nh ra c m vt qu hng cn ca mnh. m phnquyt lit cho Clinton khng gh qua Nht trn ng i - mt cch cho thy chnh l chuyn thm Trung Quc ch khng phi ncno khc - v ko di chuyn thm ny thnh tm ngy n c th hnby ngy lch s ma Nixon dnh Trung Quc vo nm 1972. Trongmt bi pht biu mt sau chuyn thm ny, Th tng Trung Quc byt s hi lng rng Clinton khng dng chn ti Nht Bn trn ngn Trung Quc... vi kt qu l Nht Bn b mt mt.Bo ch chnhthc Trung Quc chp ngay ly bt k mnh bnh lun t bn ngoiTrung Quc cho rng Clinton v Giang Trch Dn gp nhau nh hai



lnh o ngang bng. H tuyn b rng hai nh lnh o cng vi nhau(qun i chu u, Nht Bn, v n ) lm Chu n nh hnvth gii ha bnh hn.

Mc tiu th su ca chnh sch ngai giao Trung Quc l ly linhng vng lnh th m Bc Kinh cho l theo ng l th thuc vCHNDTQ. Danh sch cc vng lnh th m h cho l nh vy gm tnhng khu vc m h cng khai tuyn b l ca h cho n nhng khuvc m h b mt hi vng s c ngy chim at. Danh sch y gm iLoan v mt s ln cc o trong vng bin Hong Hi, bin Nam TrungHoa (Bin ng), v Bin ng Trung Hoa. Trong trng hp iLoan, Bc Kinh ang ch i mt thi c kt hp din bin thun li(theo Bc Kinh) trong chnh tr ni b i Loan, s mt mi ca M docng thng h tr i Loan, kh nng ln hn ca Trung Quc vnchuyn binh lnh v trang thit b nhanh chng vt qua eo bin iLoan rng 100 dm, v mt Nht Bn d un theo mong mun caTrung Quc hn hin nay. Trong trng hp qun oTrng Sa, tri diqua cc tuyn ng bin rt quan trng ng Nam v c yu schch quyn tng phn ca su quc gia, Bc Kinh ang ch i nnglc hi qun khi phc liquyn kim sot cc o v c bn lkhng c ngi nhng giu du m v cc ngun ti nguyn khc ny.Khng t ngi Vit Nam, Hn Quc, Thi Lan, v n cng d kinrng Trung Quc, khi c th, s a ra i hi ch quyn i vi mt sphn ca lnh th ca h c ln thuc Trung Quc khi xa.

V kht vng ca Trung Quc i vi vng lnh th trn sn phabc ca h, Mao ni iu ny vo nm 1964: Khu vc pha ng cah Baikal l ca chng ta tr thnh lnh th ca Nga khong 100 nmtrc y v k t Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Kamchatka, v cc khuvc khc cng l lnh th ca Lin X. Chng ta cha a ra chng cca chng ta v danh sch ny. Chng ta c th a ra chng c khing lc.n nm 1973, Mao ko di thm danh sch cc vng lnhth ng cm thy b Moscow nh cp. Trong mt cuc tr chuyn vcc ch khc vi Ngoi trng Henry Kissinger, t nhin ng thanphin Lin bang X vit xo bt ca Trung Quc mt triu rikilomt vung.Trong nhng nm 1960 v 1970, cng ng Cng snhin cm quyn Bc Kinh tuyn b nhiu phn ca Kazakhstan,Tajikistan v Kyrgyzstan ngy nay l cc b phn ca lnh th TrungQuc. Nu s nm gi ca Nga i vi vng Vin ng yu i, v squa li ca ngi Trung Quc sng v bun bn trong cc khu vc bingii tip tc, Trung Quc c th a ra chng c ch quyni vimt phn ca Siberia.



Chng phi lc no mt cng quc ang ln cng t c mc tiuca mnh. i vi cc quc gia chuyn ch thi hin i, nhng thnhcng ca h hu ht u ngn ngi. Cc mc tiu ca c ba cng qucpht xt gy ra Chin tranh th gii II, t ngt b dp tt nm 1945,v cc mc tiu i ngoi ca khi X Vit cng bin mt khng cndu vt sau nm 1991. Ti tin rng Trung Quc c s t c su mctiu ca chnh sch i ngoi ca h hay khng l ty thuc vo h thngchnh tr ca h v vo phn ng ca cc cng quc khc s l th nivi nhng tham vng ca nc y.

Mn kch trong tng lai cn k ca Trung Quc c th s din rachng phi trong quan h i ngoi nhng trong nc: i hi ca cagii trung lu i vi quyn s hu, s bt mn nng thn, Internet,150 triu ngi tht nghip lang thang gia lng mc v thnh ph, vmt dn s thnh lnh lo ha ang gy ra nhng cng thng ti chnh vx hi, s kch tnh ho mt s nhng mu thun ca ch ngha Leninth trng.i mt ng trong kinh t v mt ng khc trong chnhtr gy ra kh khn trong vic i ti mt im ch quy nh. Cch thcm Trung Quc gii quyt cc mu thun gia chnh tr v kinh t ca hs xc nh mc mnh m nh th no vai tr m h s gi trn thgii.

S tri dy hin nay ca Trung Quc, ging nh s ni ln ca cv Nht cui th k 19, th hin cao vng, lng bt bnh, v ch nghadn tc cao . Tuy nhin, s tri dy ca cc quc gia c nhiu hu qukhc nhau. Chng hn Vng quc Anh cui cng chp nhn mt cchbnh thn s tri dy ca M Ty bn cu. Ngc li, s tri dy cac v Nht Bn kt thc bng hai cuc chin tranh th gii v s hydit h thng chnh tr hai nc ny - thay th bng cc chnh th honton mi v cch hnh x quc t hon ton mi. Dn ch, ch khngphi nhng c im vn minh hoc bt k s khc bit to ln v tmmc kinh t quc gia hin nay so vi nhng nm 1930, l l do c vNht Bn tr thnh cng quc hnh x ng hong trong thi ichng ta. D c nh hng to ln, c hai u khng l mi e da chocc nc khc nh trc y. Vai tr tng lai ca Trung Quc trn thgii s c nh at phn ln bi nhng g xy ra vi h thng chnhtr li thi ca nc ny trong hai thp k sp n

i khi ta qun rng bt c u, khi no, vic thng c ln v trb ch mi lun lun cn ba yu t: Mt l mun tr thnh s mt cacng quc ang ln, hai l kh nng t c mc tiu , v ba l schp nhn cng quc y v pha nhng nc chu nh hng. Bc Kinhc mun. Kh nng th cha r l c vt ngoi tm ca h hay khng.Nhng liu nhng nc ngai Trung Quc c chp nhn h chng?

ng vn cn gi k c v Vng triu Trung tm (Trung Quc).Mi ngi Vit Nam v Hn Quc u bit thi ngo mn lu i ca



triu nh Trung Quc i vi cc nc lng ging. Tt hoc xu,khong 60 triu ngi Hoa ang c tr ng bn ngoi CHNDTQ,nhc nh Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, v cc nc ch nh khc vs u vit ca vn minh Trung Quc trong khu vc; trong mt s trnghp, tnh trng sng chung vn cn cng thng. Mt na dn s i Loanchng i thng thng nh ca Bc Kinh ti lps cai tr hn oca h, theo cc cuc thm d; trong mt cuc kho st nm 2002, 38%coi mnh nh l ngi i Loan, 8% nh ngi Hoa, 50% nh l c hai.

Trung Quc qua nhiu thp k t xng l nn nhn: b co khetging nh mt qu dasau chin tranh Nha phin, b bt nt bi cc qucphng Ty, vn vn.... Thnh cng ban u ca h nh mt ncb quyn s nhanh chng t ra nhng vn v din mo ca h cngnh nhiu hu qu thc t. Trung Quc s pht gic, nh M au npht gic, rng mt cha t mi ln ca rng xanh s b cc vt cn canhng con th khc va b y ra ngai. Mt nc Nht nhn thy TrungQuc ng M - mt ng minh chnh ca Nht, mt nc m u thhng u trong khu vc ng khin Nht km ch trong su thpk - chc chn s thch thc Trung Quc. Mt ln na, nh trong nmthp k sau nm 1894, Trung Quc v Nht Bn s ginh git nhau - vc th nh nhau - kim sot khu vc ny.

Mt Trung Quc chuyn ch - lo lng v kh nng kim sot chnhngi Trung Quc v khng nm gi mt cch thoi mi bn qucphi Hnngay chnh trong lnh th ca h - s c th thiu s hp dno c lnh o chu . C th l lun rng quc Trung Qucxa, trong nhiu th k qua, l mt th lc n nh, nhng trong thk 21, bt k mt ng thi no ca Trung Quc nhm m rng qucca h, hoc ch tip tc di lu cc lnh vc a quc gia hin ti cah, c lm kh nng gy bt n.

Lin X, c mt lin h cht ch gia qucv chuynchnh cng sn. Trung Quc cng c mt gn kt tng t. Cngnh Nga, Trung Quc l mt mnh t rng khng c mt qucnhng l mt quc. S tan r ca Lin X kt thc Chin tranh Lnhcng nh lm nt v s c quyn chnh tr ca ng Cng sn Moscow. iu Zbigniew Brzezinski ni v Moscow cng ng cho cBc Kinh: Nga c th l mt quc hay mt nn dn ch, nhngkhng th l c hai.

Moscow, di p lc, ang xc nh li nhng li ch quc gia ca ho,khi h li sau lng nhiu thp k l quc cng sn. Trung Quchu nh mi chp chng bt u tin trnh ny. Cc nh lnh o TrungQuc phi t hi xem h c th cai tr sung s mt x hi khc bit viTrung Quc nh i Loan ngy nay hay khng. H c th nn cn nhcliu cho Ty Tng nh l mt nh nc lin kt vi Trung Quc -chc chn l di ci bng ca Trung Quc, nhng c ch quyn - c th



l tt hn so vi s cng thng dai dng gia Lhasa v Bc Kinh nh nayhay khng. Nhng cu hi ny cha c nu ra bi v Trung Quc vncn trong qu trnh chuyn i t quc cng sn sang quc gia hini, v cn b ging co gia nhng g h mun v nhng g h thc scn. Cc huyn thoi quc gia (mt Trung Quc nn nhn) ng l lth; nhng s mi gi ca li ch quc gia (mt Trung Quc thnhvng) c v hp dn hn.

Cn nhiu vn na v kh nng ca Trung Quc tr thnh mt bquyn ton cu. Bc Kinh hin nay khng th phng sc mnh ca h raxa; trong thm ha sng thn thng 12 nm 2004 h khng th lmnh vy, ngay c ti Nam v ng Nam . Nhiu vn chc chn spht sinh chu Phi v chu M La tinh, bt u vi ngn ng v baogm c chng tc v tn gio ri vn ha, nu Trung Quc tm cch c tc ng nhng khu vc m chu u v M c nh hng. Ngoira cn nhiu nghi ng rng liu Trung Quc c trang b v mt trit lcho s thng tr th gii theo cch m nc Anh tng hng qua scmnh trn bin, hoc theo cch M hin ang hng da trn cc giaodch kinh doanh, sc mnh qun s, vn ha i chng, v nhng nimv th trng t do v dn ch. thc v sc mnh ca ch ngha Maochc chn l mnh m, ging nh thc v s mnhca ngi Anh-M pht xut t o Tin Lnh. Nhng, nu khng c s bn nhn cach ngha cng sn th ch ngha dn tc Trung Quc thiu mt thngip cho th gii. Nc M di thi Tng thng George W. Bush rrng l c mt thng ip, ngay khi n hu nh khng thuyt phc ucai khng phi l M. CHNDTQ hin nay chng c thng ip no, nhngrt chuyn tm trong vic kim sot trong nc v tham vng c mt bunh hng.

Ti ni v Trung Quc nh mt nc c tham vng. Nhng c s tthn cho Trung Quc nu h l mt cng quc bo th? Mi mnh u c nhng ngi nhit tnh ng h, nhng c hai c mt mi quan hm dng. Cc yu sch bnh trng ca Bc Kinh th ai cng thy rrng v l c nht trong cc cng quc ngy nay. Tuy nhin, ch Bc Kinh, tuy l ch c ti, l mt ch c ti c l tr. H bitm cc con s. H thng kin nhn trong vic thc hin cc mc tiuca mnh. c trang b vi mt lc lng nng ct ngy cng nhiuquan chc tr, c o to bi bn, Bc Kinh ngy nay khng nh cctriu nh nh Minh v nh Thanh xa, la m chnh mnh bng nhngh cu p che giu s cch bit gia thc t v th gii quan athch ca Trung Quc. Tm li, Trung Quc l mt cng quc y thamvng, nu phi chm mt vi sc mnh i khng, s hnh ng thntrng trong chin lc di hn ca h. H bit chc c mt danh schng n gm cc cng quc nh M, Nht Bn, Nga, n ... cnhiu l do t chi cho Trung Quc c hi lm Vng quc Trungtm ca th k 21. Trung Quc khng phi l yu nh h dng nh th



khi cn l mt con bnh ca Chu .Quc gia ny c th cng khngmnh m mt cch bn vng nh h c v hin nay i vi nhng ngis hi hay chim ngng h.

Bn dch Thi i Mi

B quyn vi bn sc Trung Quc*

Aaron L. Friedberg

i hc Princeton, M

Hoa K v nc Cng ha Nhn dn Trung Quc b dnh vo nhautrong mt cuc tranh chp thm lng nhng ngy cng mnh m nhmginh quyn lc v nh hng, khng ch chu m cn khp th gii.Mc d nhng g m nhiu nh bnh lun nghim chnh v y thin chc v tin, s knh ch ang ny sinh gia M v Trung Quc khng chl hu qu ca nhng ng nhn hay chnh sch sai lm, ng sau chngl nhng lc pht xut t cu trc ang chuyn bin ca h thng quc tv t chnh s khc bit ca th ch chnh tr hai nc ny.

Trong sut lch s, quan h gia cc nc ang ch ng v cc ncang vn ln khng bao gi l d dng v thng l d di. Nhngnc hin l cng quc th c khuynh hng xem mnh l cnh v mttrt t quc t m h c cng sng lp v nh n m h ang tip tchng li. Mt khc, nhng cng quc ang vn ln th cm thy bkim hm, thm ch b la bp, bi tnh trng hin hu; h u tranhchng li tnh trng y ginh ly ci m h cho rng ng ra l ca h.Thc vy, cu chuyn ny, vi nhng ng kiu Shakespeare v tr vgi, vng mnh v suy tn, l th chuyn c xa nht trong lch s cnghi li ca loi ngi. Ngay t th k 5 trc cng nguyn nh s hc vi ngi Hy Lp Thucydides bt u nghin cu v cuc chin tranhPeloponnesia vi nhn xt tng chng nh n gin rng nguyn nhnsu xa nht, thc nht, ca chin tranh ny l s ln ln ca sc mnhAthena v s s hi m n gy cho Sparta.

S tht rng quan h M-Trung l quan h cnh tranh th chng c gng ngc nhin. Song hai nc ny khng phi l hai cng quc btk: T khi Chin tranh Lnh kt thc, M l nc giu nht v mnhnht th gii; Trung Quc, khc th, l quc gia m kh nng l tng lnnhanh nht. M vn cn l s mt, nhng Trung Quc ang nhanhchng thu ngn khong cch gia h v M. Hu qu ca s cnh tranh

* Phng dch bi Hegemony with Chinese characteristics, National Interest,thng 7-8, 2011, tr. 18-27.Gio s khoa Chnh tr v Cc Vn Quc t.


S 22thng 8, 2011

Aaron L. Friedberg | B quyn v bn sc Trung Quc 41


ny khng th l h trng hn, v c bit l y tim nng a n xungt.

t nht l di mt cc cng quc hin ch ng, cc nc ang lnc xu hng l nhng k gy ri. Khi kh nng ca mt nc gia tngth, ni chung, cc lnh o ca nc y xc nh li ch ca h mt cchrng ri hn, v mun c nh hng nhiu hn i vi nhng g xy raxung quanh h. iu ny c ngha l, thng thng, nhng nc angln khng ch mu bo v bin gii ca h m cn mun vt rangoi bin gii y, c nhng bin php cn thit m bo tip cn ccth trng, vt liu v cc ng giao thng, bo v cng dn ca hang lm vic xa nh, bo v cc bn b v ng minh nc ngoi cah; truyn b cc tn gio v thc h ca h; v c nhng g mh xem l quyn li chnh ng ca h trong nhng vn khu vc v c th gii.

Khi cc nc ang tri ln bt u mnh dn ln ting, h thngcm thy phi thch thc cc ng bin gii c hu, cc thit ch quct v h thng tn ti trt t uy tn c sp xp khi h cn tng iyu. Tng t Nht Bn cui th k mi chn, hay c bc ngotsang th k hai mi, cc cng quc mi ni mun tm ch ng dimt tri. Tt nhin iu ny t h i u vi cc cng quc hin ngtr ci gi l cc nc status quo (ang c) vn l nhng nh kintrc, nhng k tha hng ch yu, v nhng ngi bo v chnh ca btk h thng quc t hin hu no.

Nhng c st pht sinh t gia cc li ch ca hai bn rt t khic gii quyt mt cch ha bnh. Nhn thy mi e da ang ln lni vi v th ca h, cc cng quc hin c u th (hay mt lin minhca cc nc c a v y theo thc t - status quo) i khi tn cng vhy dit mt i th trc khi i th ny c th ln ln v mnh thnh mt nguy c. Vi cng quc khc mong trnh chin tranh theo mt chnh sch ngc li: c gng xoa du nhng nc c kh nngthch thc mnh, h tm cch tha mn nhng i hi v tham vng canuc y v tm cch a cc nc y vo trt t quc t hin hu mtcch ha bnh.

Tuy nhin, d c chn thnh n my, nhng c gng ny hu nhlun lun kt thc trong tht bi. i khi, l do r rng l v nhng ihi ca quc gia ang ln. Nh nc c ca Adolf Hitler, mt k xmlc c th c nhng tham vng qu ln, n mc cc nc trong trt thin hu (status quo) khng th p ng m khng thc t tr thnh kphc tng hay a dn tc h vo ch t st. Ngay khi nhng i hi cacc nc ang ln l khng qu ln, cc nc ang c u th cngthng rt kh chp nhn nhng b, do lm bng thm ngn la ongin v tht vng ca nc ang ln, hoc qu hm h nhng b, th libi dng tham vng ca cc nc ny, khin cc i hi leo thang theo



ng trn c. Cc chnh sch nhng b xoa du m thng li c thhiu c v mt l thuyt, nhng vic thc hin chng trong thc t lrt kh khn. l l do ti sao nhng thi k chuyn tip khi mtcng quc ang ln bt u vt cc nc trc kia l vt tri lun lun c nh du bng chin tranh.

D h cn thn khng ni thng, cc nh cm quyn hin nay caTrung Quc c v ang c xy dng quc gia h nh cng quc ni tri ng , v c l c chu ni chung. Mc ch l lm cho TrungQuc thnh nc mnh nht v c nh hng nht trong vng, mt ncc kh nng ngn chn cc cuc tn cng v cc mi e da; gii quytcc tranh chp lnh th theo s thch ca Trung Quc; p buc hocthuyt phc cc nc khc chp nhn nhng mun ca Trung Quctrn nhng vn t thng mi v u t n lin minh v tha thuncn c cho nc th ba, s i x vi Hoa kiu; v, t nht trong vitrng hp, gy nh hng n bn cht v thnh phn chnh ph cacc nc lng ging. Bc Kinh c th khng tm cch chinh phc haytrc tip kim sot v mt vt cht nhng nc xung quanh Trung Quc,nhng, chc chn l h mun thc hin mt dng b quyn khu vc, dh lun lun ph nhn iu ny.

Trung Quc khng l quc gia duy nht c nhng tham vng nhvy. Xuyn sut lch s, bao gi cng c mt tng quan cht ch giamt bn l s tng trng ca ci nhanh chng v sc mnh tim nngca mt nc, vng a l ca nhng quyn li ca nc y, cng v s a dng ca nhng e da bit i vi nhng li ch, v bn kial mong mun tng cng cc kh nng qun s v dng nh hng lnhn bo v chng. Chnh s tng trng c xu hng khuyn khchbnh trng, m bnh trng th s dn n mt an ninh, v mt an ninhth cng tng thm c mun c nhiu quyn lc hn na. Mu hnh nyc thit lp rt r trong thi trung c. Khi nhn li cc th k michn v hai mi, Samuel Huntington thy rng mi cng quc lnkhc, Anh v Php, c v Nht, M v Lin x, gn lin vi s bnhtrng, yu sch ra bn ngoi, v ch ngha quc trng khp vi hoctip ngay theo sau nhng nm cng nghip ha v tng trng kinh tnhanh chng.

i vi Trung Quc, Huntington kt lun khng c l do g nghrng vic c c sc mnh qun s v kinh t khng c nhng tc ngtng tln cc chnh sch ca nc ny.

Tt nhin, cch hnh x trong qu kh ca cc nc khc ch c tnhgi , kh l mt ch dn chc chn n tng lai. Ch v cc cng quckhc c x cch no khng nht thit c ngha l Trung Quc slm nh vy. C l, trong mt th gii m th trng l ton cu v c vkh ht nhn, nhng ni lo s v tham vng thc y cc cng quc ni



ln trc y khng cn mnh m nh xa. C l cc lnh o TrungQuc hc c t lch s rng nhng cng quc mi ni thngkhuy ln nhng bt mn v chng i.

Nhng Trung Quc khng phi l mt cng quc mi ni bt kno, v lch s ca h cho thm mt l do tin rng h s tm mt hnhthc u thng no trong khu vc. Trung Quc l mt dn tc c mtqu kh lu di v t ho nh l mt trung tm ch o ca vn minhng . Gn y hn, quc gia ny cng c mt kinh nghim t v vanghn v s h v nhc nh trong tay ngai xm. Nh mt s nh shc gn y vch r, Trung Quc khng ch ni lnm cn tr vci a v vt tri trong khu vc m c thi n gi, iu m cc lnho v nhiu ngi trong nhn dn ca h vn ngh l ng nhin vthch ng. Ci mong mun phc hi h thng ly Hn lm trung tm cth nht qun vi iu m nh bo Martin Jacques m t nh mt ginh ph bin v phn ngi Trung Quc, rng a v t nhin ca hnm trung tm ng , rng nn vn minh ca h khng ai trong khuvc snh ni, v rng ci a v xng ng ca h m lch s ban cho, sc khi phc vo mt thi im no trong tng lai.

Hc gi bo th Dim Hc Thng (Yan Xuetong) t vn mt cchngn gn: Nhn dn Trung Quc t ho v qu kh vinh quang ca tnc mnh v tin rng vic Trung Quc ri khi a v u vit l mt sailm lch s m h nn sa cha.Nu c iu g l ng th chnh lci th k nhc nhm Trung Quc bc nhc v d b tn thngcng lm cho vic theo ui quyn lc ca h thm cp bch. Vi mtdn tc c mt lch s nh ca Trung Quc, vic ginh li mt a vquyn lc v ch khng c xem mt cch n gin l vn t hom ng hn nh mt iu kin tin quyt thit yu tip tc tngtrng, an ninh v, rt c th, s sng cn.

Nhng mu hnh ngm ngm ca chnh tr quyn lc nh th angy M v Trung Quc vo ch nghi k v tranh ua, nu khng nhtthit l n xung t cng khai. Nhng cu chuyn ny khng ch c th.Khng nh khng nh ca mt s ngi theo ch ngha thc t, cc vn t tng h t nht cng quan trng nh vn quyn lc trong vicquyt nh tin trnh ca cc quan h gia cc quc gia. S kin M lmt nn dn ch t do trong khi Trung Quc vn cn l mt ch tontr l mt sc y thm rt mnh cho s tranh ua, mt chng ngi chonhng quan h n nh v hp tc, v t n l mt ngun gc ca thch v nghi ng ln nhau.

Quan h gia cc x hi dn ch v khng dn ch lun c thchin trong ci m nh chnh tr hc Michael Doyle m t l mt bukhng kh him nghi, phn no v nhn thc ca cc nc t do rng



cc nc khng t do lun trong mt tnh trng xm lc gy hnchng li chnh nhn dn ca h.Cc nc dn ch, ni ngn gn, xemcc nc khng dn ch l t chnh ng hn bi l nhng nc sau nykhng c s ng m dn chng ca h c t do t by. n gin l,trong thm tm, phn ln cc cng dn nhng nc dn ch khng tinrng tt c mi quc gia u c to ra mt cch bnh ng, hoc l miquc gia u ng uc knh trng nh nhau, bt k quc gia y c caitr nh th no.

Nhn di nh sng ny, nhng tranh ci M - Trung Quc v nhngvn nh kim duyt v t do tn gio khng ch gy kh chu ngoimt -- nhng kh chu c th ha gii hoc r b. Tri li, chng l triuchng ca nhng kh khn su hn. i vi a s ngi M, s vi phmnhn quyn ca Trung Quc khng ch

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