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ECFA - Taiwan's Economic Strategy in an Era of Global Change By Dr. Yin
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1
Taiwans Economic strategy in an Era Taiwans Economic strategy in an Era of Global Changeof Global Change
0
20108
1
2
2
1770~1870 1870~1913 2
1950~1973 2
1975~1995 41990~1999 New Economy
10the lost decade
3
2000~2009 21010132
31982
1997
2008
4
2008
2010
z
GDP199010.5%200014.6%200817.1%
zFDIzFDIFDI(inflow)GDP
19900.9%20004.4%20082.8%z(M&A)
19909902005462020087070zWTO
5
zWTO
z100199753.5%200861.9%
199511761995~199961200016153
4
z(PPP)(GDP)(%)
z1991-20003.1%2001-20083.9%7.4%8.3%
z(FDI)FDI(%)
(PPP) (GDP)(%)1980 1990 2000 2008
G7 51.3 51.0 49.0 42.0 29.5 27.2 25.2 22.5
7.2 10.1 15.2 21.0
1995-1990 1991-1996 1997-2002 2002-2008
6
z/199826.4%200829.3%
199822.0%200827.7%
1995-1990 1991-1996 1997-2002 2002-2008 37.1 34.4 45.0 38.6
// 8.7 22.1 12.1 15.9 34.3 18.4 20.5 15.0
z
(%)1990 2000 2008
42.1 48.9 50.1ASEAN 20 1 23 7 25 5ASEAN 20.1 23.7 25.5
z
2000 6 20 25 5120107 43 25 90 158
7
zFTA(2008)44.4%25%23% 11% < 1%
75%50%35~49%
5
8
Match
9
6
10
2002 4.64 1.62 0.29 0.21 0.39 2.14
2002 4.64 1.62 0.29 0.21 0.39 2.14
2003 3.50 0.90 0.08 0.32 0.40 1.79
2004 6.15 2.66 -0.07 3.58 0.91 -0.93
2005 4.16 1.76 0.14 0.25 -0.61 2.63
2006 4 80 1 02 -0 05 0 18 0 19 3 46
11
2006 4.80 1.02 0.05 0.18 0.19 3.46
2007 5.70 1.31 0.11 0.37 0.12 3.81
2008 0.12 -0.16 0.13 -2.01 -0.01 2.17
71
1.4
00.2
0.40.60.81
1.2
12
IMF,Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific , April 2008
GDP94 1.67 31.26 26.53 67.08
%
95 1.61 31.33 26.46 67.0696 1.49 31.38 26.52 67.1297 1.60 29.25 24.98 69.16
GDP94 1 5 44 6 56 9
13
94 -1.5 44.6 56.995 3.8 43.9 52.396 -0.7 49.1 51.697 1.7 -8.6 106.9
=/=GDP*GDP
8
%
2003 36.0 20.92004 38.1 19.22005 41.6 37.72006 39.3 36.62007 47 2 37 4
14
2007 47.2 37.4
1686
2007
93.0%6.6%
0.4%
ICT73.5%
15
26.5%
9(%) (%) -(%)87 24.77 25.99 1.2288 23.42 26.07 2.65
89 22.94 25.67 2.7390 18.01 21.45 6.1491 17.55 25.95 8.4092 17.84 27.12 9.2893 21.92 27.33 5.4194 20 85 26 29 5 44
16
94 20.85 26.29 5.4495 20.96 27.95 6.9996 20.95 29.85 8.9097 20.62 27.18 6.56
17
10
18
19
11
WHY TAIWAN MATTERS
20
21
12
22
/
z z
z 12
z
(25% 17%)R&D
z (
23
)
()
13
z z
z WTOz
ECFA
z z
ECFA
z z
z
24
z
z
25
Time-to- Market Quick-to-Market
R MD
14
ECFA
1.
26
2.5(ICT )30 5
3.
X
$
MIT
27
(M)
(D)
(R)
15
28
1320098.79002009241
29
16
1.2.3
3.
1.2.
30
ECFA
99
999
26
17
32
- ECFA
-
33
18
30.5
34
35