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1 全球變局下台灣未來經貿戰略布局 全球變局下台灣未來經貿戰略布局 全球變局下台灣未來經貿戰略布局 全球變局下台灣未來經貿戰略布局 Taiwan’s Economic strategy in an Era Taiwan’s Economic strategy in an Era of Global Change of Global Change 0 尹啟銘 20108大綱 一、全球變局 二、變局下調整台灣的經濟體質 三、台灣未來經貿戰略思維 1 四、兩岸經貿前瞻

Taiwan's Economic Strategy in an Era of Global Change By Dr. Yin

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    Taiwans Economic strategy in an Era Taiwans Economic strategy in an Era of Global Changeof Global Change

    0

    20108

    1

  • 2

    2

    1770~1870 1870~1913 2

    1950~1973 2

    1975~1995 41990~1999 New Economy

    10the lost decade

    3

    2000~2009 21010132

  • 31982

    1997

    2008

    4

    2008

    2010

    z

    GDP199010.5%200014.6%200817.1%

    zFDIzFDIFDI(inflow)GDP

    19900.9%20004.4%20082.8%z(M&A)

    19909902005462020087070zWTO

    5

    zWTO

    z100199753.5%200861.9%

    199511761995~199961200016153

  • 4

    z(PPP)(GDP)(%)

    z1991-20003.1%2001-20083.9%7.4%8.3%

    z(FDI)FDI(%)

    (PPP) (GDP)(%)1980 1990 2000 2008

    G7 51.3 51.0 49.0 42.0 29.5 27.2 25.2 22.5

    7.2 10.1 15.2 21.0

    1995-1990 1991-1996 1997-2002 2002-2008

    6

    z/199826.4%200829.3%

    199822.0%200827.7%

    1995-1990 1991-1996 1997-2002 2002-2008 37.1 34.4 45.0 38.6

    // 8.7 22.1 12.1 15.9 34.3 18.4 20.5 15.0

    z

    (%)1990 2000 2008

    42.1 48.9 50.1ASEAN 20 1 23 7 25 5ASEAN 20.1 23.7 25.5

    z

    2000 6 20 25 5120107 43 25 90 158

    7

    zFTA(2008)44.4%25%23% 11% < 1%

    75%50%35~49%

  • 5

    8

    Match

    9

  • 6

    10

    2002 4.64 1.62 0.29 0.21 0.39 2.14

    2002 4.64 1.62 0.29 0.21 0.39 2.14

    2003 3.50 0.90 0.08 0.32 0.40 1.79

    2004 6.15 2.66 -0.07 3.58 0.91 -0.93

    2005 4.16 1.76 0.14 0.25 -0.61 2.63

    2006 4 80 1 02 -0 05 0 18 0 19 3 46

    11

    2006 4.80 1.02 0.05 0.18 0.19 3.46

    2007 5.70 1.31 0.11 0.37 0.12 3.81

    2008 0.12 -0.16 0.13 -2.01 -0.01 2.17

  • 71

    1.4

    00.2

    0.40.60.81

    1.2

    12

    IMF,Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific , April 2008

    GDP94 1.67 31.26 26.53 67.08

    %

    95 1.61 31.33 26.46 67.0696 1.49 31.38 26.52 67.1297 1.60 29.25 24.98 69.16

    GDP94 1 5 44 6 56 9

    13

    94 -1.5 44.6 56.995 3.8 43.9 52.396 -0.7 49.1 51.697 1.7 -8.6 106.9

    =/=GDP*GDP

  • 8

    %

    2003 36.0 20.92004 38.1 19.22005 41.6 37.72006 39.3 36.62007 47 2 37 4

    14

    2007 47.2 37.4

    1686

    2007

    93.0%6.6%

    0.4%

    ICT73.5%

    15

    26.5%

  • 9(%) (%) -(%)87 24.77 25.99 1.2288 23.42 26.07 2.65

    89 22.94 25.67 2.7390 18.01 21.45 6.1491 17.55 25.95 8.4092 17.84 27.12 9.2893 21.92 27.33 5.4194 20 85 26 29 5 44

    16

    94 20.85 26.29 5.4495 20.96 27.95 6.9996 20.95 29.85 8.9097 20.62 27.18 6.56

    17

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    18

    19

  • 11

    WHY TAIWAN MATTERS

    20

    21

  • 12

    22

    /

    z z

    z 12

    z

    (25% 17%)R&D

    z (

    23

    )

    ()

  • 13

    z z

    z WTOz

    ECFA

    z z

    ECFA

    z z

    z

    24

    z

    z

    25

    Time-to- Market Quick-to-Market

    R MD

  • 14

    ECFA

    1.

    26

    2.5(ICT )30 5

    3.

    X

    $

    MIT

    27

    (M)

    (D)

    (R)

  • 15

    28

    1320098.79002009241

    29

  • 16

    1.2.3

    3.

    1.2.

    30

    ECFA

    99

    999

    26

  • 17

    32

    - ECFA

    -

    33

  • 18

    30.5

    34

    35