Thailand’s Energy Strategies. Energy Situation Energy supply is available BUT with much higher prices. Thailand still depends heavily on energy imports,

Thailand’s Energy Strategies

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Energy SituationEnergy Situation

• Energy supply is available BUT with much higher prices.

• Thailand still depends heavily on energy imports, especially oil.


ดี�เซล

เบนซ�น

น�มั นดี�บดี�ไบ

Crude and Petroleum Product Prices in 2006

Forecast on the Dubai crude price (Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs)

• During Jul-Dec 2006, the price will be about - 6870 US$/barrel. • In 2007, the price is projected to slightly increase to be about - 7071

US$/barrel.

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Price

(US$

/barr

el

J an Feb Mar Apr May

Problems in Nigeria

Problems in Iran Problems in Bolivia

Jun

Diesel

Gasoline

Dubai crude

Energy SituationEnergy Situation

Dec06 Jun07

70 US$/barrel

71 US$/barrel

Shaken stability of Thailand’s economic conditions

Trade deficit Adverse impact on the people as the

commodity prices increase

Impact of the Oil Price Crisis


Objectives of the Energy Plan

• To reduce dependency on energy imports• To enhance the national energy security• To ensure that energy development is

gearing towards sustainable development


1st Strategy : To Reduce Dependency on Energy Imports

Measures: 11. : Diversify fuel sources & types,

focusing on indigenous energy resources

1.2 : Develop and promote the use of alternative energy

1.3 : Improve energy efficiency of the country


Measure 11. : Diversify fuel sources & types, focusing on indigenous energy resources

• Promote the Use of Natural Gas

– to replace petroleum fuels in the transport sector (“NGV Project”)

– to replace fuel oil in the industrial sector

Promotion of NGV utilizationPromotion of NGV utilizationto replace petroleum fuelsto replace petroleum fuels

in the transport sectorin the transport sector


Target : Increase the Number of NGV Stations

Region Present2006

2007 2008 2009 2010Q3 Q4

Bangkok & vicinities

53 80 127 197 247 270 325

Central 14 20 45 64 74 80 90North - - 11 1 7 4 5 87 112

Northeast - - 9 24 5 810

4

11

4

South - 2 8 18 26 79 99

Accumulated Stations

6710

2

20

0320

45

0

62

0

74

0

TargetNo. of NGV vehicles (thousand)

14 5 1 171 30039

6500

Promotion of NGV UtilizationPromotion of NGV Utilization

Success Indicators:1) Construction sites for 200 stations have already been identified.2) 200 compressors has been procured; deliveries are scheduled in Q3 and Q4 of

2006.3) 140 trucks for NGV transportation have been procured.4) Other oil companies are encouraged to establish NGV stations, i.e. Bangchak,

Shell, Esso, Caltex and Petronas by providing incentives, e.g. increased marketing margin from 0.83 baht to 2.33 baht/kg (except for PTT stations).

Vehicle Type 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Roadmap Revised Accumulated Vehicles (thousand/yr)

Gasoline-engine Vehicles

Taxis/ Tuk-Tuks/ Sedans/ Government Fleets

33 5. 4 3 .96

7 9 1 3 9 179 219

Diesel-engine Vehicles

BMTA Buses/ Inter-province Buses/ Concessionary Buses

618 407. 78. 938 112.8

126.2

Trailers/ Trucks 3306. 239. 25 31 391. 481.

Pick-ups/ Vans 3306. 078. 586. 120 165 219

Total Diesel-engine Vehicles

39 5. 723. 92 161 217 281

No. of Vehicles (Accumulated)

73 51 171 300 396 50

0

Target : Increase the Number of NGV Vehicles (revised)

Remarks: The Plan was revised due to the following:

• The expansion of NGV stations has been delayed as promotion of NGV vehicles is boosted worldwide, resulting in shortage of equipment and machinery required for the construction of NGV stations.

• Tax incentives to promote NGV utilization were approved in May 2006.• Requests have been received for the installation of NGV kits for 1,785 government

vehicles. Of this, 695 vehicles have been sent in and installation has been made for 668 vehicles.

• There are some technical problems for NGV kit installation for diesel-engine pick-ups.• The number of NGV kit installation operators increases to 38, with 169 workshops and 14

inspectors.


Tax Measures• Customs Tax Exemption : equipment/cylinders until end 2008

: NGV engines

• Excise Tax Reduction : OEM from 30% to 20%: Retrofits from 30% to 22%, but

not exceeding 50,000 baht

• Investment Privileges via BOI

Revolving Fund• Energy Conservation Promotion Fund: 2000, Million Baht : Engine

change

- BMTA Buses : Credit line 1700, M Baht, for 1477, buses - Inter-province Buses : Credit line 300 M Baht, for 300 buses

• PTT 5,000 Million Baht : Engine modification/change for private operators

of transport services

Approved Supportive Measures for NGV

Promotion



Promotion ofPromotion of NG utilizationNG utilizationto replace fuel oilto replace fuel oil

in the industrial sectorin the industrial sector

Initial Phase Target by 2011Industrial Estates in:

• Bangkok and vicinities• Songkhla (Cha-lung)• Chonburi (Pinthong, Welgro) • Rayong (Pha-daeng)• Ayuddhaya (Saharattana Nakhorn, Hitec)

• Samut Sakhorn, Singburi, Ratchaburi, etc.

2005: NG use = 2,300 M litres of fuel oil equivalent 2006: NG use = 2,900 M litres of fuel oil equivalent

2007: NG use = 3,500 M litres of fuel oil equivalent

Entirely replace fuel oil

MMSCFD

4%

Target in 2006 308 MMSCFD

Utilization of Natural Gas to Replace Fuel Oil in the Industrial Sector

256

262

259

267

250

255

260

265

270

เฉลี่��ย 48 ม.ค.-49 ก.พ.-49 ม�.ค.-49AVERAGE 05 JAN 06 FEB 06 MAR 06

Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization

Measure 12. : Develop and promote the use of alternative energy

Cabinet Resolution of 17 May 05

Approving the discontinuation of

Octane 95 Gasoline Distribution

as from 1 Jan 07Ethanol Production 11( . M litres/day)

Currently, 4 plants are in operation, with a total capacity of 580,000 litres/day and actual production at 490,000 litres/day.

By Dec 2006, 4 more plants will be on stream, with a total capacity of 510,000 litres/day, using:

- cassava : 210000 litres/day

- molasses : 300000, litres/day

Current Status

Current Gasohol Utilization

Gasohol Utilization = 3.5 M

litres/day

3,103 service stations

There are 30 new applicants for ethanol plant

construction. Biofuel Development & Promotion Committee (BDPC) is urging the plants with licenses granted to submit documents on the equipment procurement plan + down payment + LC placement by 31Jul06; otherwise, the licenses will be revoked.


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00

Eth

ano

l Am

ou

nt

(M li

tres

/day

)

J an Apr Aug Dec

2006

Apr Jun

2007

Remarks: - During Sep-Nov06, the supply will drop as Thai Agro Energy has notified of its planned shut down due to raw material shortage.- For the plants using cassava, the actual production is expected at 50% of the capacity in the 1st year and 75% in the 2nd year.

Demand & Supply 2006–07Demand & Supply 2006–07

Installed Capacity

Ethanol Requirement to

produce Gasohol 95

Actual Production as

planned

Actual Production in case new plants are delayed for 2

months


Action Plan until end of 2006Action Plan until end of 2006

• Speed up the 4 new plants to be on stream by Dec 06

• Increase the number of Gasohol 95 stations nationwide

• Speed up co-investment between Thai Oil & Liquor Distillery Organization in ethanol production from cassava at 500,000 litres/day

• Promote “Contract Farming” between Ethanol Plants using cassava and Farmers (Pilot project for 3 plants)

Monitoring Agency


MOEN

MOEN/Oil Companies

MOEN/MOF

MOAC/MOEN/ Bank of Agriculture & Agricultural

Cooperatives (BAAC)/MOI

1.6 2.1 2.1 2.21.10.42

Average ethanol requirement to

produce gasohol

Action

Amount(M litres/day)

Replace MTBE by Ethanol

2011201020092008

2009: distribute E10

nationwide

Improve cassava yield 5 tons/rai and sugarcane 15 tons/rai

8.1 8.3 8.5 8.684Gasohol 95 (average)

Improve cassava yield 10 tons/rai and sugarcane 20 tons/rai

Gasohol 91 (average) 3 8 12.4 12.7 130.2

20072006

21. +1.60.46Average actual

ethanol production

Total saving from oil import reduction(Billion Baht/yr) 12 15 15 1683

NB:- Domestic raw materials will be sufficient if the improvement of yield/rai is achieved as planned by the MOAC. - MOEN has liaised with automobile manufacturers and oil traders regarding the policy to promote the use of E10-E100 in 2007.

2008: distribute

E100 in certain areas

Gasohol Road Map: Long Term (2007-11)Gasohol Road Map: Long Term (2007-11)Ethanol Hub

Agency

MOEN

MOAC

MOEN/BDPC

Awaiting licenses: 30

plants


Promotional MeasuresPromotional Measures

1. 1 Aug 06: revoke the licenses of new plants that fail to operate as scheduled and liberalize the ethanol production business.

2. In case the construction of 4 new ethanol plants scheduled to start operation in Dec06 is delayed, there will be 2 options:2.1 Postpone the removal of Gasoline 95 from

the market from 1 Jan 07 to 1 Apr 072.2 Import 30 M litres of ethanol in Nov 06 to

build up the stock

3. Speed up promotion of Gasohol 91 as from 2007-08, and allow export of surplus ethanol from 2009 onwards.

Monitoring Agency


BDPC

MOEN

MOEN

BDPC/MOEN

Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization

Measure 12. : Develop and promote the use of alternative energy

Biodiesel Production

No. of Plants B100

(certain)4* 6 8 40

Installed Capacity

(M litres/day)

0.85 1.65 2.158 5.0

Palm Oil Demand (M tons/yr)

00.6

0.1404.2

24.7

Raw Material

(Palm Oil)

Nationwide Supply (M tons/yr)

0.37 0.67 0.42 2.41

Supply-Demand 0.31 0.53 0 -0.06

Reduce Import **

(Billion Baht/yr)

126 .1

9.3 55

* Used cooking oil is mainly used as raw material; the quality of B100 does not meet the specifications yet.

** Ex-refinery diesel price (30Jun06) = 21.12 Baht/litre

2012201120102009200820072006Road Map


Current Status

Biodiesel Specifications• Commercial scale –

announced 11Jul05 & effective 23Sep05

• Community scale for agricultural machinery – announced 30Jun06 & effective 21Jul06Commercial Biodiesel

• 3 production plants of B100, with a total

production capacity of 350,000 litres/day

(SunTech 500,000 litres/day – COD Jul06)

• 35 service stations for B5 (PTT & Bangchak), with a total sale of 100,000 litres/day sale to lorries & pick-up trucks

• Retail price of B5 is lower than diesel priceat 0.50 Baht/litre

New Areas for Oil Palm Plantation (1 hectare = 6.25 rai)

• Target in 2006 7200, 00 rais

• Palm plantation 05/0 6 6 2 0 , 000 rais

• Credit granted by Bankof Agriculture & Agricultural Cooperatives 258

3M Bt Community-Based Biodiesel(Pilot Project)

Production Capacity (each):100 litres/day

Raw Materials: used cooking oil,

palm oil, jatropha oil

Target Dec 2006: 70 Communities Production: 7,000 litres/day Replace diesel 2.3 M

litres/yr


Action Plan Jul – Dec 2006 Agency

1.B100 Plants

• PTT (via PTTCH) is constructing a B100 plant, with a capacity of 600,000 litres/day (COD Dec 07) and is negotiating on joint-venture with 2 private operators, with a total capacity of 500,000 litres/day.

• MOEN jointly with MOAC use excess raw palm oil to produce B100 at 300,000 litres/day for sale to fishing boats, trucks and service stations.

• Service stations of PTT/Bangchak will increase from 35 to 200 stations by Sep 06.

MOEN/PTT

MOAC/Private Operators

Oil Companies

2. Plantation• Set incentive measures for farmers to grow oil palm instead

of rubber trees.

• Promote “Contract Farming” between Farmers - CPO Extraction Plants - B100 Plants.

• Solicit with neighboring countries for oil palm plantation at about 200,000 rais in 2007.

MOEN/BAAC

MOAC/MOEN/BAAC/MOI

NESDB/MOEN/MOAC/

MFA/MOC/MOF

3 Community-Based Biodiesel to replace diesel at 2.3 M litres/yr

• Increase community-based biodiesel to 70 stations under the “One District, One Community-Based Biodiesel” Project.

MOEN/MOAC/MOI/MOST/ Local

Administration Organizations


Long-Term Plan (2007-2012) Agency

1. Raw Materials for Production- Speed up new domestic oil palm plantation 3.7 M rais.

- Solicit for new oil palm plantation in neighboring countries, 1 M rais.

- Promote Contract Farming between Farmers-CPO Extraction Plants-B100 Plants.

MOAC

NESDB/MFA/MOAC/MOEN/MOF

MOAC/BAAC/MOEN/MOI

2. Production- Encourage private investors to establish B100 plants to

achieve the targeted production of 8.5 M litres/day.

- Increase community-based biodiesel to 730 stations by 2008 under the “One District, One Community-Based Biodiesel” Project. Each Local Admin Organization procures a location for system installation & feedstock and MOEN/MOST provide biodiesel production equipment & technical advice (production cost ~16-20 Baht/litre).

MOEN/MOI (Industry)

MOEN/MOAC/MOI/MOST/

Local Admin. Org.

3. Distribution- Promote the use of biodiesel with a mixture ratio > B10 - Increase biodiesel service stations nationwide

MOEN/Oil Companies/Automobile

Manufacturers

4. R&D- Trial application of B10-B100 to automobiles and other

vehicles- Value-added creation from by-products via relevant

downstream industries

MOEN/MOST/Academic Institutes/

Automobile Manufacturers

Action Plan established


-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555

CPO tons/yr

CPO ส่�วนเกิ�นบริ�โภค ปี�25492550

Surplus to consumption (incl. export)

Domestic Plantation

Neighbors


CPO Demand

Demand / Supply

Demand

2,470,930

872,093

1,133,721

581,395

418,605136,047

CPO Surplus

2006+2007

2007 2010 2011 20122008 2009

Strategy for Palm Oil Procurement for Biodiesel Production

Actual and Expected No. of

Plants 6 8 10 15 20 40

CPO Demand 136047

418,605

581,395

8720,93

1133,721

2470, 930

Supply (without import)

1. CPO Surplus to consumption * 674,425 374,363 446,621 448,325 449,571 450,323

2. CPO Domestic Plantation Plan (DPP) -

34,020

230,850 586,710

1,185,624

1,778,976

3. CPO Surplus + DPP 674,425 408,383677,47

11,035,03

51,635,19

52,229,29

9

Supply(with

import)

4. CPO DPP+Plantation in Neighboring Countries

(Compared with Former Plan)

287,484

34,020

370,903

230,850

611,482

639,191

1 ,110,679

1,283,559

1,412,818

1,959,439

2,148,997

5. CPO Surplus + DPP + Neighboring

Countries (New Option) 674,425 408,383

677,471

1,087,515

1,733,130

2,409,762

Ton/yr

2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012

Forecast of Demand and SupplyForecast of Demand and Supply that is believed to be practical that is believed to be practical and and 5 options for palm oil procurement for biodiesel production.5 options for palm oil procurement for biodiesel production.

* CPO Surplus to consumption = Actual Palm Oil Product + Stock at the beginning of the year – Domestic Consumption (excl. export)

1. Allocate money from the ENCON Fund (increase the contribution rate by 6 Satangs/litre) to promote RE of all types.

2. Set incentive measures for farmers to grow oil palm instead of rubber trees and increase the palm yield from 2.7 to 3.5 tons/rai.

3. Promote oil palm plantation in neighboring countries by giving assistance in seeking sources of fund.

4. Provide soft loans, totaling 1,200 MBt, to investors of commercial-scale biodiesel plants.

5. Provide 100 MBt to be the operating budget for “One District, One Biodiesel” Project, totaling 730 stations.

Promotional MeasuresPromotional MeasuresMonitoring

Agency


MOEN

MOAC

MOAC/MOENFinancial Institutions (FI)

MOEN/FI

MOEN/MOST/MOI/ Local Admin. Org.

Measure 13. : Improve energy efficiency of the country

• Transport Sector– Restructure the logistic system of the country– Improve & promote the use of mass transit systems

• Industrial/Commercial/Service Sector– Use pricing measures and legally mandatory

measures, e.g. issuance of energy efficiency standards to improve energy efficiency of the production process in the industrial sector, together with the application of incentive measures

• General Public Sector– Foster energy conservation awareness– Use pricing measures together with legal measures

2nd Strategy: To Enhance the National Energy Security

Measures:

21. : Manage the production of key energy types to ensure greater efficient fuel diversification 22. : Increase and promote exploration of energy resources overseas 23. : Seek for international cooperation in energy development, at both bilateral and multilateral levels 24. : Speed up study on nuclear fuel to be prepared for its application in the long term

Measure 2.1: Manage key energy production for greater efficient fuel diversification

Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power

335,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59

MW

Yr

(43,558 MW)

(38,241 MW)

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.66.5

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.4

4.75.0

5.5

5.55.0

5.0

5.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

New GDP

GDP

43 - 47 50 - 54 55 - 59 MWDiff with

MEGMW

Diff withMEG

MEG 7.10 6.97 6.47 31,844 43,558

Apr 06 5.96 5.44 29,337 -2,507 38,241 -5,317

Average Growth 2554 2559

• Load forecast has been revised due to the economic slowdown.

• Power demand growth rate is adjusted downwards from initially forecasted.

2011 2016

2,507 MW 5,317 MW

Revised Load Forecast: Growth rate decreased from initial forecast


34

Fuel Option in Power Generation

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

อื่��นๆ

ถ่��นหิ�นน�เข้#�

ล�กิไนต์%

น�มั นเต์�

กิ&�ซธริริมัช�ต์�(LNG, PepeGas)กิ&�ซธริริมัช�ต์�

พล งน�

GWh

Yr

72%

7%

10%6%

48%

10%

7%

20%

12%

3%

31%

14%

5%

29%

18%

3%

6%

68%

17%8%

Hydro

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (LNG, Pipe Gas)

Lignite

Imported Coal

Others


Others

Imported Coal

Lignite

Natural Gas (LNG, Pipe Gas)

Fuel Oil

06 070706 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1615 17 18 19 20 21

x

Ft will not increase until Jan 07

Implementing Guidelines

• Energy conservation measures help slowdown the power

demand growth rate to 4%

• Increase the use of natural gas from:

- Phu Hom basin to fuel Nam Phong Plant in Oct 2006, reducing the use of fuel oil by 60 M litres/month.

- Gulf of Thailand/Myanmar

• Accelerate the use of coal at the IPP plant, BLCP, reducing the use of fuel oil by 110 M litres/month.


Road Map

1. Reduce the use of fuel oil/diesel so as not to affect the Ft.

2. Diversify fuel types in power generation, via:2.1 Import coal in 2013, starting with power generating

capacity at 700 MW.

2.2 Import hydropower from neighboring countries, by encouraging EGAT/Thai investors to invest in hydropower projects in those countries.

• Lao PDR 2,200MW, during 2011-2015

• Myanmar 3,000MW, during 2013-2021 (1st project is Hutgyi)

• PR China 3,000MW, during 2016-2017


Hutgyi

MALAYSIA

PR China

Myanmar

Cambodia

Vietnam

INDIA

6,100 MW( - 201321 = 3,000 MW)

3,000 MW( -201617)

ล�ว

Thailand

LPDR

Hydropower from neighboring countries

4,050 MW( - 201115 = 2,200 MW)


Estimation of EGAT’s Long-Term Capital InvestmentEstimation of EGAT’s Long-Term Capital Investment

4545,,979700

99 ,,185185 3636,,78578520082008

EGAT’s Long-Term Capital EGAT’s Long-Term Capital InvestmentInvestment

4040,,163163

22 2,2,375375

1010,,193193

GenerationGeneration

1919,, 297 297

88 ,,328328

77 ,,777777

TransmissiTransmissionon

20102010

TotalTotal

5959,,464600

20092009

3030,,70703320072007

1717,,979700

20062006

TotalTotalYearYear

3939,,024024 2222,,3463466161,,373700

148148,,545400

6666,,933933215215,,447373

Unit: M BahtUnit: M Baht


Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas

Measure 2.1: Manage key energy production for greater efficient fuel diversification

Plan of Natural Gas Demand Showing Continuous Plan of Natural Gas Demand Showing Continuous

GrowthGrowth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2549 2551 2553 2555 2557 2559 2561 2563

EGAT / IPP / SPP

NEW IPP (Gas 70%)

Industry

NGV

GSP

Unit: MMSCFD

3,145

74%

9%

62%

52%

10%

7%

17%

20%

5,015

15%

13%

20%

CAGR 12% CAGR 4%

Growth Rate Increases:

Short term (2006-2010)

12%

Long term (2011-2020)

4%

Expand the market that optimizes the value creation of natural gas:

Industries (CHP)/Transport (NGV)

Gas Separation Plants/ Petrochemical

GDP Growth 5.2%

GDP Growth 5.5%

7,350

Source: PTT/ EPPO/ Draft PDP 2006


2006 2008 2010 2012 2015 2026 2028 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2548 2551 2554 2557 2560 2563

Unit: KBD

OilOil

Coal/LigniteCoal/Lignite

ElectricityElectricity

RenewableRenewable

416

915

19%2 9%

21%

2 1%

11%

26%

21%

22%

20%9%

CAGR 5%

Natural Gas(CAGR 10%)

Natural Gas(CAGR 10%)

Year 2006 2010 2020MMSCFD 282 520 1,080

Fuel oil replacement (M litres/yr)

2,600 4,800 10,000

Value of fuel oil replacement(M Baht/yr)

33,000 51,450 117,000

Value derived from EE improvement (M Baht/yr)

888 4 ,81513,610

Plan for Value Creation in the Industrial Sector

Energy Demand in the Industrial Sectorby Fuel Type

Energy Demand in the Industrial Sectorby Fuel Type

Projects in progress 297 MW

Suvannabhumi Airport (2006) 52 MW

PTTUT 1-2 (2008-09) 225 MW

Government Office Centre (2008) 10 MW

Future Park Rangsit (2007) 5 MW

Energy Complex (2009) 5 MW

Projects under FS 720MW

PTTUT 3-4 225 MW

Sahaviriya Steel Factory 220 MW

Samui Island 100 MW

Eastern Seaboard Industrial 150 MWEstates

Bangchak Oil Refinery 20 MW

Siriraj Hospital 5 MW

High Potential (25 projects) 259MW

Expansion of Efficient Use of Natural Gas via

the Use of Combined Heat & Power (CHP)

15%

2 6%

17%

21%

22%


2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Plan for Expansion of Distribution Plan for Expansion of Distribution Pipeline System to Promote Use of Pipeline System to Promote Use of

Natural Gas in the Industrial & Natural Gas in the Industrial & Transport SectorsTransport Sectors

Expand City Gas Suvannabhumi – Suksawad - Siriraj Sai Noi – Suksawad - Siriraj Samut Prakarn – Bang Chak

Expand to Regional Estates/Industrial Areas

Central Region Ayuddhaya (Nakhon Luang district) Samut Sakhon (Kratumbaen district) Prachinburi (Gateway Estate, Sahapattana Group)

Eastern Region Rayong (TPI)

Western Region Ratchaburi (Ratchaburi Industrial Estate)

Southern Region Songkhla (Chalung Industrial Estate)


GSP 6 GSP 7&8 & Ethane Plant 2009 2012-14

3rd Wave 3rd Wave Phase 1 Phase 2

Value added (Billion Baht) 42.5 47.3

Value of investment Billion USD 2.8 2.4

Billion Baht* 110.8 96.9

Revenue Estimate: 288 Billion Baht/yr @ 2018

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2548 2551 2554 2557 2560 2563

2549 2553 2555 2558

GSP ExpansionGSP Expansion

LPG/Ethane Production LPG/Ethane Production

5,317

3,680

4,524

2,450

932

2,450

3,627

2,296

Eth

an

eLP

G

Unit: K Ton/Yr

491

1 ,465

GSP 1-5GSP 1-5

GSP 6GSP 6

Ethane PlantEthane Plant

GSP 7+8GSP 7+8

CAGR 8%

GSP 6/Ethane Plant

GSP 7 (LPG Only)

GSP 7+8 (Ethane Extraction)

Unit: MMSCFD

Increase gas separation capacity to accommodate the petrochemical industry development

Plan for Value Creation in the Petrochemical Industry/

LPG Export

Remarks: * Exchange Rate at 40 Baht : 1 USD


2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

2006 2010 2012 2015

Jun2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3 ,150

Now

Unocal Add

100

(Jun)

Unocal Add &

Pipeline No. 3 70

(Aug/Sep)

Reduce Pressure @ ERP/ECP

65

(Sep)20

(Sep)

Reduce Border Pressure @ MyanmarPhuhom

108

(Oct)

200

(Jun)

A18 Early Gas

+200(Apr)

A18

330

(Jan)

Arthit

60

(Jan)

Arthit Add

(270+60)(Jul)

B17

YetagunAdd

100

(Jul)

150

(Jan)

A18 Phase 3

330

(Oct) 250

(Jul)

UnocalAddS. BKT

หน่�วย : ลี่�าน่ ลี่บ.ฟุ�ต/ว�น่

FPSO FPSO

Plan for Natural Gas Supply: Short-TermPlan for Natural Gas Supply: Short-Term

Jul 2007

Natural Gas from the Gulf of Thailand (2,213 MMSCFD) until the capacity of the offshore Pipeline No. 3 is used up.

Use of FPSO to speed up increase of NG supply from the Gulf of Thailand (Arthit/B17)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2549 2551 2553 2555 2557 2559 2561 2563

Gulf of Thailand

MyanmarM7/M9

LNG/Regional Gas

72% 70% 52%

28%

21% 12%5%4%

6%30%

Plan for NG Supply


LNG/Regional Gas to meet the increasing demand (starting 2011)

MMSCFD

- LNG (5-10 MTA) 700-1,400

• Middle East (Iran/Qatar)

• Malaysia

• Australia (Woodside)

• Russia (Sakhalin)

- Regional Gas

• M7/M9 /A1/

600

Other Myanmar

• Natuna 1,000

Additional Gulf to replace decreasing NG in the Gulf of Thailand (starting 2022)

- Arthit 3110

- Pailin add132

- Thailand-Cambodia 1,000

Overlapping Area

Plan for Natural Gas Supply: Medium/Long TermPlan for Natural Gas Supply: Medium/Long Term


Plan for the Expansion of Natural Gas Pipeline NetworksPlan for the Expansion of Natural Gas Pipeline Networks

Expansion of Domestic NG Pipeline Networks (MMSCFD)

East Coast Year 2011 Offshore 2010, 3910, Onshore 1200, 3700

West Coast Onshore 1265 1760,

Distance 3000, 4400, km

Expansion of Cross-Border NG Pipeline Networks

Accommodate domestic demand in the long term

Preparedness to be “Gas Hub” Natuna (Indonesia) 1,600

km A1, M7/M9 (Myanmar) 1,200

km OCA (Thailand-Cambodia

Overlapping Area)


Project on the LNG Receiving TerminalProject on the LNG Receiving Terminal

Location: Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate (MapTa Phut Industrial Port, Phase 2)

Capacity: - Initial phase 5 M Tons/year

(700 MMSCFD) as at 2011

- Long Term 10 M Tons/year

(1,400 MMSCFD) as at 2018

Lining of Onshore Pipeline No. 4 (42”), 1,300 km, linking with the Terminal and the existing pipeline system/New IPPs

Value creation from the cool of LNG

- GSP 7 and 8

- Power Plants/Petrochemical Industry

Project Site: Map Ta Phut Industrial Port, Phase 2

Project Site: Map Ta Phut Industrial Port, Phase 2


Investment in energy & petrochemical industries Investment in energy & petrochemical industries

is increasing continuously.is increasing continuously.

2,925

39,553

9,193

21,993

5,956

Pipeline SystemNGV

JV

ธุ�รก�จอื่��น่ๆ โรงแยก

ก!าซฯ2,802

10,465

6,767

30,320

13,788

ระบบท่�อื่ฯ

NGV

JV

ธุ�รก�จอื่��น่ๆ โรงแยก

ก!าซฯ

2006 2007

79,620 64,142

Investment in the next 5 yrs

307,346

Unit: M Baht

604,607

PTT PTT Subsidiaries

GAS

222,726

OIL12,961

JV69,349

Others2,310

GAS222,726

OIL12,961

PTTEP142,280

Petchem137,080

Refining89,560

Gas 79%Gas 65%

72%

37%23%

4%

1%

2%

24%

22% 15%


Measure 2.2: Increase and promote Measure 2.2: Increase and promote exploration of energy exploration of energy resources overseasresources overseas

• Encourage “National Champions” in both petroleum and electricity generation industries to invest or joint venture in energy development projects in foreign countries.

Measure 2.3: Seek for international cooperation in energy development, at both bilateral and multilateral levels

• Speed up energy cooperation projects to enhance energy supply for Thailand, through the bilateral discussion framework with neighboring countries.

• Seek for cooperation in the energy technology development, via the multi-lateral discussion framework, and forge ahead Thailand’s energy policies in international forums.

Measure 2.4: Speed up study on nuclear fuel to be prepared for its application in the long term

• Seek cooperation with countries with expertise in nuclear technology

• Human resources development to accommodate future nuclear projects

Measures:

31. : Promote participation of the general public in energy development projects

32. : Improve and promote the protection against, and the management/control/alleviation of pollutions resulting from energy development activities

3rd Strategy: To Ensure that Energy Development is Gearing towards Sustainable Development

•The World’s Largest Crude Reserve– Crude reserve: 743 billion

barrels or 619. % of the world crude reserve.

•The World’s Largest Crude Producing Region – Crude production of the Middle East,

as at the end of 2005, is 9.17 billion barrels/year, accounting for 31% of the total world crude production.

Remarks: As at the end of 2003,

World crude reserve = 1200.7 billion bbl

World crude production = 29.6 billion bbl/yr

Impact of Political Tension in the Middle Impact of Political Tension in the Middle EastEast

Influential Factors of the ME over the World Energy Situation

• In case of a slight oil shortage (The supply decreases but is not less than 80% of the averaged oil demand per day.):

– The government will be lenient with regard to the mandatory oil stockpile, which will be released to cover the domestic demand, under specified measures and for a period of time as deemed appropriate.

Thailand’s Energy Preparedness in response to the Political Tension in the ME


• Largest Source of Crude Import to Thailand

Importance of the Middle East to Thailand

Middle East

79.7 %

Africa

3.0 %

Asia Pacific

17.0 % Others

0.3 %

Source Amount(M. Litres)

Share(%)

Africa 1,415.09 3.0

Middle East

38,301.65 79.7

Asia Pacific

8,175.74 17.0

Others 141.09 0.3

Total 48,032.57 100.0

Share of Crude Import to Thailand

by Production Source


Crude Import to Thailand from the Middle East (by country)

Country Amount(M. Litres)

Share (%)

United Arab Emirates (UAE) 15,987.64 41.7

Iraq 656.42 1.7

Kuwait 243.90 0.6

Oman 7,214.47 18.8

Qatar 1,968.87 5.1

Saudi Arabia 9,379.69 24.5

Yemen, DEM. (South) 178.75 0.5

Yemen 2,671.91 7.0

Total 38,301.65 100.0

• In case of a severe oil shortage (The available supply is less than 80% of the averaged oil demand per day):– The government will intervene to control the overall pricing and

consumption amount, via application of 2 major measures: Supply Side & Demand Side.

Preparedness Measures: Supply Side• Utilization of oil from domestic resources. Under the Petroleum Act, the

government will limit crude oil exports of concessionaires of crude production from domestic resources, of which the capacity is ~60,000 bbl/day. Crude oil produced must be sold only to domestic oil refineries.

• Request activation of the mechanism under the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) & have negotiations done to be ready for the application of APSA to oil producing countries in ASEAN, e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

• Request cooperation from Transnational Corporations in the oil business in Thailand, e.g. Shell, Esso and Caltex, to get prepared to obtain additional quota of both crude and refined products, from their respective parent companies for distribution in Thailand during the oil shortage.

• Use the Government to Government negotiation mechanism to seek for cooperation/assistance in oil trading/exchange with each other.



Preparedness Measures: Demand Side• The Objective of Demand Side Measures is to optimize oil

utilization efficiency, with no excess impact on the economic conditions and quality of life of the people.The government will determine the oil rationing for economic sectors, divided into: Economic group requiring special attention of the

government, i.e. industrial, transport, fishery and agricultural sectors – a focal monitoring body will be assigned to manage the rationing, which may be the Ministry of Energy together with Article 7 Oil Traders.

General group, i.e. oil consumers in all regions – the rationing will be based on the demand by province and the Provincial Governors will be assigned to determine the oil rationing priorities within their respective provinces.

For both measures, concerned government agencies and Article 7 Oil Traders will prepare key data/information, e.g. the amount of demand and of oil stockpiles at oil depots situated in various regions, for the consideration of oil rationing for each economic sector.



CONCLUSION

• Thailand as a small country in South-east Asia cannot escape the impact of world energy situation.

• Thailand depends heavily on energy supplies from abroad, especially crude oil from the Middle East.

• Situation in the world energy market has direct impact on Thailand in a few day.

CONCLUSION

• Thailand is now working very hard on other fuels such as biofuels (Ethanol & Bio-diesel) and NGV which can be produced locally to help reduce dependency on world supply of energy. It might be small but worth trying.

• In the long run, nuclear might be the final answer for Thailand when other fuels are depleted.

Energy Policy and Planning OfficeMinistry of Energy

Thailand

Documents

Thailand’s Energy Strategies. Energy Situation Energy supply is available BUT with much higher prices. Thailand still depends heavily on energy imports,