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Thailand’s experiences in the power sector
Chuenchom Sangarasri GreacenChris Greacen, Ph.D.
Palang Thai
International Seminar on Dams and Sustainable Energy
24 March 2005Melia Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam
Overview
• Energy consumption and economic development• Thai government’s energy strategies• Current practices and consequences of Thai power
sector planning– Load growth forecast– Power development plan (PDP)– GMS Grid
• An alternative to the supply-driven power sector planning• Thailand’s abundant clean energy opportunities
– 8% target– Potential– Examples
Thailand compared with VietnamThailand Vietnam
Population 65 million 83 million
GDP per capita (PPP)
$7,400 $2,500
GDP growth (2003 est.)
6.7% 7.2%
GDP by sector Agriculture: 10%Industry: 44%
Services: 46%
Agriculture: 22%Industry: 40%
Services: 38%
Electricity consumption
90 billion kWh 28 billion kWh
Source: CIA World Factbook, 2005
Thailand’s power consumption growth outstrips economic growth
Electric Power Generation per GDP
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1971 1973 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999
kWh/
US$
, 199
5 P
rice
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Germany
Taiwan
Singapore
Thailand
Australia
Malaysia
South Korea
Japan
Peru
Thai government has set a target for energy elasticity
1.0 (2008)
* Source : EGAT’s Power Development Plan 2003** Source : Electricity Demand Forecast Report, January 2004
Ratio of GDP growth to electricity demand growth in Thailand
Thailand GDP growth
Electricity consumption
growth
Ratio of GDP to power demand growth
1992-2002
2003-2016
1.45 times
1.84 times
2.02 times
2.39 times
1.4
1.3
January 2004 Demand Forecast
MW %2004 6.5% 19,600 1,479 8.22005 6.5% 21,143 1,543 7.92006 6.5% 22,738 1,595 7.52007 6.5% 24,344 1,606 7.12008 6.4% 26,048 1,704 7.02009 6.4% 27,852 1,804 6.92010 6.6% 29,808 1,956 7.02011 6.5% 31,844 2,036 6.82012 6.5% 33,945 2,101 6.62013 6.5% 36,173 2,228 6.62014 6.4% 38,515 2,342 6.52015 6.5% 40,978 2,463 6.42016 6.4% 43,558 2,580 6.3
Average (2547- 2549) 6.5% - 1,957 7.0
Avg. past 10 yrs (2537- 2546) 3.6% - 839 6.6
98% 99%
Avg. past 15 yrs (2532- 2546) 5.6% - 845 8.5
89% 99%
Avg. past 20 yrs (2527- 2546) 6.2% - 767 9.1
65% 99%
A c t u a l
YearGDP (%)
Demand Growth
% of Villages
electrified
MWincrease/year
Past peak demand projections tended to over-estimate
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MW
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96
Oct-96
Jun-97
Sep-97
Sep-98(RER)
Sep-98(MER)
Sep-98(LER)
Feb-01
Aug-02
Jan-04(LEG)
Jan-04(MEG)
Jan-04(TEG)
ACTUAL
Power Development Plan(Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)
Regional Power Grid
• Main agenda of regional cooperation
• Claimed benefits:– Increased reliability, shared power reserves – Energy transfer among member countries with
different peak periods, resources– Savings of 1,377 – 2,554 MW new capacity
avoided (Source: ADB’s GMS Grid Master Plan)
2020 Peak Demand in
GMS Countries
Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002
ADB’s Interconnection Master Plan for GMS countries
Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002
Reality of GMS Power Grid:expensive, risky investment
• Costs excluded in analysis:– Control center– Water usage– Regulator & reliability
coordination– Transitional costs
• Increased vulnerability: events in Laos/Cambodia determine reliability of Thai Grid
US$billion
Project cost 43.50 - 44.96
Cost savings*
0.45 - 0.91
% benefit of total cost
1.0 – 2.1%
*Cost savings of extended power cooperation scenarios over base case
Source: Comments on Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries by Bretton W. Garrett, P.Eng., Ph.D.
US$10 billion overinvestment
The public is bearing high electricity costs as a result of THB 400 billion (US$10 billion) over-investment of in power generation.
-- Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
Source: The Nation (2003). “PM Pressing for Egat IPO this year’. The Nation. March 14.
There is an alternative to the supply-driven, capital-intensive
power sector planning
Revised Peak Demand Forecast
Jan 04 Forecast Adjustments to Jan 04 forecast (MW) Forecast (revised)
Year Assumed
per annum GDP
growth rate
Peak Demand (MW)
Use actual 2004
peak as base
(19,326)
GDP Growth = 5.6% (average past 15
yrs)
Demand : GDP =
1:1
Peak Cut (according to EGAT’s
PDP 2004)
Total Adjust- ment (MW)
Peak Demand (MW)
2547 6.5% 19,600 -274 0 0 0 -274 19,326
2548 6.5% 21,143 -296 -35 -259 0 -590 20,553
2549 6.5% 22,738 -318 -110 -482 -500 -1411 21,327
2550 6.5% 24,344 -340 -227 -629 -500 -1696 22,648
2551 6.4% 26,048 -364 -373 -797 -500 -2034 24,014
2552 6.4% 27,852 -389 -577 -962 -500 -2429 25,423
2553 6.6% 29,808 -417 -903 -1113 -500 -2933 26,875
2554 6.5% 31,844 -445 -1280 -1252 -500 -3477 28,367
2555 6.5% 33,945 -475 -1731 -1343 -500 -4048 29,897
2556 6.5% 36,173 -506 -2277 -1428 -500 -4711 31,462
2557 6.4% 38,515 -538 -2897 -1519 -500 -5454 33,061
2558 6.5% 40,978 -573 -3652 -1565 -500 -6290 34,688
Projects under construction/negotiation
EGAT’s PDP 2004 Alternative PDP
Thermal Kra Bi #1 340.0 MW
Gas Turbine Lan Kra Bue 122.0 MW
Lum Ta Kong hyfro dam #1-2 500.0 MW
BLCP Power #1-2 1,346.5 MW
Gulf Power Generation 700.0 MW
Ratchaburi Power #1-2 1,400.0 MW
SPP (renewable) 151.1 MW
SPP (old power purchase declaration) 60.0 MW
total 4619.6 MW
Thermal Kra Bi #1 340.0 MW
Gas Turbine Lan Kra Bue 122.0 MW
Lum Ta Kong hyfro dam #1-2 500.0 MW
BLCP Power #1-2 1,346.5 MW
Gulf Power Generation 700.0 MW
Ratchaburi Power #1-2 1,400.0 MW
SPP (renewable) 151.1 MW
SPP (old power purchase declaration) 60.0 MW
Nam Thuen 2 in Laos 920.0 MW
total 5539.6 MW
New Projects
EGAT’s PDP 2004 Alternative PDPNon industrial
-DSM 500 MW
-Renewable Energy 1,800 MW
total 2,300 MW
Industrial
-DSM 1,000 MW
-Renewable energy (RPS 5% ) 390 MW
-Cogeneration 2,500 MW
-Repowering 4,310 MW
total 8,200 MW
total 10,500 MW
4 Repowering plants 2,485 MW
20 New power plants 13,770 MW
RPS 770 MW
total 17,025 MW
Cleaner, more economic, more efficient sources of supply are not given due consideration despite high potential
Cogeneration
Demand-side Management and energy efficiency
Wind, solar, micro-hydropower, biogas, biomass, etc.
Combined power and heat (CHP) or co-generation
COGENCOGEN
DSM & Cogeneration: big potential
• DSM– 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost
effective DSM” in 1991 (Utility study)• IIEC (International Institute for Energy Conservation). 1991. Demand Side Management for Thailand’s
Electric Power System: Five-Year Master Plan. Submitted to Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and Provincial Electricity Authority, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand. November.
• Cogeneration– 8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001
• http://www.jxj.com/magsandj/cospp/2002_05/cogen_southeast_asia.html
– Since 1998, utilities accepting no new cogen. At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000hours
MW
2001 PEAK = 16,126 MW
Hourly electricity load duration curve (year 2002)
15100
15300
15500
15700
15900
16100
16300
0
12
24
36
48
60
> 1,000 MW in 66 hours
Renewables account for very little of Thailands’ installed generating capacity
พลั�งน้ำ���ก๊�ซธรรมช�ติ�น้ำ���ม�น้ำเติ�ดี�เซลัลั�ก๊ไ น้ำติ�ถ่��น้ำหิ�น้ำน้ำ�� เข้��พลั�งง�น้ำหิม�น้ำเวี�ยน้ำส�ยส�งเช ! อมไ ทย-ม�เลัเซ�ย
Source: EGAT (2003). Power Development Plan
Natural gas
lignite
Big hydro
Fuel oil
0.6% grid-connected renewables
TOTAL: 26,000 MW
Imported coal
TE = Traditional Energy
NRE = New & Renewable Energy
TE 11%
NRE8%(6,668 KTOE)
Conventional energy 81%
52,939 KTOE
2002(265 ktoe)
2011
83,354 KTOE
NRE0.5%
TE16.5%
Conventional energy 81%
Thai government target: 8% renewable energy by year 2011
Thai government target & strategy for renewable energy
RE8%
RE0.5%
Bio Fuel (Incentive) 1,600 KTOEEthanol 3.0 M liter/dayBio diesel 2.4 M liter/day
Heat~ 0.00 KTOE
Bio fuel~ 0.00 KTOE
2002 2011
R & D
RPS
INCENTIVE
Electricity1,170 KTOE
Facilitator
RPS 437 MW- Solar 200 MW- Wind 100 MW- MSW 100 MW- Biomass - Hydro
Incentive 1,093 MW-Biomass-Hydro
ElectricitySolar 6 MWWind 0.2 MWBiomass 560 MW
37 MW
Replacement of imported oil 48 mill. barrels values 96,537 Mill. Baht
Heat(Incentive)
3,900 KTOE
Estimate of installed grid-connected renewables in Thailand (2004)
Resource Capacity (MW)
Biogas 7
Biomass 215 (to grid)(not including 419 MW self-gen)
Small & micro-hydro 139
Solar PV 1.2
Wind 0.7
TOTAL 363Source: 2003 Thai government figures + updates for biogas & PV based on recent installations
Resource Technical potential (MW)
Commerical Potential* (MW)
Year 2011 Government targets (MW)
Biomass (includes biogas)
Solar PV
Wind
Micro- & Mini- hydro
7,000
>5,000
1,600
700
>4,300
?
?
>200
1140
250
100
350
Total >14,000 >4,500 1840
Estimated renewable energy potential in Thailand
Source: Technical potential and Targets from Thai Ministry of Energy. (2003).“Energy Strategy for Competitiveness” http://www.eppo.go.th/admin/moe-workshop1/index.html. Commercial potential from from Black & Veatch 2000 and NEPO/DANCED 1998 as well as interviews with power plant managers.
* Commercial potential based on actual prices paid to renewable energy generators currently on-line
Breakdown of economically viable biomass resource
Biomass resource Economic potential (MW)
Bagasse 1900
Biogas (cassava, pig, food waste) 1185
Wood residues 950
Rice husk 100
Corncob 54
Distillery slop 49
Coconut 43
Palm oil residues 43
TOTAL 4,324
Source: Black and Veatch (2000). Final Report: Thailand Biomass-Based Power Generation and Cogeneration Within Small Rural Industries. Bangkok, NEPO; NEPO/DANCED (1998). Investigation of Pricing Incentive in a Renewable Energy Strategy -- Main report. Bangkok. Bagasse figure from interview with interview with Sirisak Tatong, power plant manager at Mitr Phol sugar factory. Biogas from interviews with biogas developers
Technology is available…
• Steam turbines for direct combustion of biomass– Rice husk, wood chip, palm husk, bagasse, coconut husk, etc.– Size >1 MW– Capital cost $1200/kW– Commercially available in Thailand
• Bio-digestors & engines for biogas– Pig manure, cassava, palm oil, municipal wastes, distillery slop– Size > 30 kW– Problems with SO2 resolvable
• Gasifiers– Rice husk, wood chip– Size > 50 kW.– Problems with tar in some fuels– Commercially available for wood chip
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
Biogas from Pig Farms
Community micro-hydro
• Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai
• 40 kW
• Community cooperative
• Expected gross revenues: 30,000 baht/month
40 kW micro-hydro generator at Mae Kam Pong
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3
MW of electricity• Earns high market returns• Developer estimates 300 MW from waste water + 800
MW from wet cake
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• 3 x 1 MW Jenbacher gas generators
Proposed reform for Thailand’s power sector
Transmission Utility (EGAT Transmission)
Transmission System Operation Hydropower
Power Purchase
IPP/Egco/Ratch/SPP
~ 10,000 MW
New generation (distributed generation/
community-owned/ renewables)
EGAT (Thermal Generation)
~ 15,000 MW
New Generation
(Private sector)
Existing demand
~ 19,000 MW
New demand (residential/smal
l businesses/ others)
New demand (large users)
Distribution Utilities (MEA/PEA)
Distribution Supply/Retail *
Ind
epen
den
t R
egu
lato
ry B
od
y
* Communities and local bodies have the right to manage and procure their own power supply if they wish. MEA/PEA provide distribution services but do not monopolize the system use.
The “alternative PDP”: a response to the problems of supply-driven planning process
EGAT PDP• Excessive electricity
demand prediction
• Little consideration of clean/cost-effective alternatives
Alternative PDP• Correct errors; revise
demand based on historic growth
• Incorporate DSM, cogeneration, and renewable energy
