tham nhũng và tăng trưởng kinh tế

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Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam 2013

Nguyn c Thnh, Ng Quc Thi

BI NGHIN CU NC-33

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2014 Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch Bi Nghin cu NC-33 Trng H Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni

Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam 20131

Nguyn c Thnh2, Ng Quc Thi

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Quan im c trnh by trong bi nghin cu ny l ca (cc) tc gi v khng nht thit

phn nh quan im ca VEPR.

1 Mt phin bn ca Nghin cu ny c cng b nh Chng 2 trong Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam

2014, TS. Nguyn c Thnh ch bin, NXB HQGHN 2014. 2 Gim c Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch (VEPR), email: [email protected].

3 Nghin cu vin, Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch (VEPR), email: [email protected].

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MC LC

DANH MC BNG ................................................................................................................. 5

DANH MC HP ..................................................................................................................... 6

DN NHP ............................................................................................................................... 7

DIN BIN KINH T V M .................................................................................................. 8

I. C C TH NH PH N T NG CUNG ............................................................................. 13

II. C C TH NH PH N T NG C ................................................................................ 19

III. C C C N V M .................................................................................................. 24

IV. TH TR NG V N V TH TR NG T N T ...................................................... 26

V. TH TR NG T N ................................................................................................ 31

T L U THAM KHO ....................................................................................................... 42

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DANH MC HNH

Hnh 1.Tng trng GDP theo ngnh 2005-2013, phn trm, gi 2010 .................................... 8

Hnh 2. Phn tch xu th tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 1990-2013, phn trm tng trng . 10

Hnh 3. Phn tch chu k kinh t 1990-2013, phn trm ......................................................... 10

Hnh 4. T l lm pht hng thng theo nm 2009-2014, phn trm ...................................... 11

Hnh 5. T l lm pht li theo thng 2009-2014, phn trm .................................................. 12

Hnh . Tng trng gi tr sn xu t 2001-2013 ...................................................................... 13

Hnh 7. Tng trng P theo ngnh 2011-2013, phn trm .................................................... 14

Hnh 8. Thay i ch s sn xu t cng nghip hng thng 2010-2014, phn trm .................. 15

Hnh 9. Cc ch bo ngnh ch bin ch to 2011-2014, phn trm thay i .......................... 15

Hnh 10. Ch s Mua hng Nh sn xu t 2011-2013 (PMI) .................................................... 16

Hnh 11. T l th t nghip v thiu vic lm hng qu 2010-2012 ......................................... 18

Hnh 12. dng GDP cho tiu dng hng nm, 2005-2013 ................................................. 19

Hnh 13. Chi ngn sch hng nm 2010-2013, nghn t v phn trm .................................... 20

Hnh 14. u t tr c tip n c ngoi hng nm 200 -2013, t D v phn trm ............... 21

Hnh 15. Kim ngch thng mi 1995-2013, t USD ............................................................. 23

Hnh 1 . Cn cn thanh ton 199 -2013, t USD ................................................................... 24

Hnh 2. 17. Cn cn ngn sch 2005-2013, nghn t ng v phn trm GDP ....................... 26

Hnh 18. Li su t iu hnh ..................................................................................................... 26

Hnh 19. Tng trng tn dng ................................................................................................ 27

Hnh 20. D n tri phiu bng ng ni t, nghn t ng. ................................................... 28

Hnh 21. Li su t bnh qun lin ngn hng, phn trm .......................................................... 29

Hnh 22. T gi quy i VND/USD ........................................................................................ 30

Hnh 23. Gi vng, triu ng/lng ....................................................................................... 32

Hnh 24. Bin ng sn chng khon TP H Ch Minh ......................................................... 33

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DANH MC BNG

Bng 1. T trng GDP theo lnh v c kinh t 2004-2013, phn trm ......................................... 9

Bng 2. Th hng trn cc bng xp hng mi trng kinh doanh 2010-2013 ....................... 22

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DANH MC HP

Hp 1. Logistics Vit Nam ...................................................................................................... 17

Hp 2. TNN d i dng st nhp v mua li (M&A) ............................................................ 22

Hp 3. Chnh sch h tr thu nm 2013 ................................................................................ 35

Hp 4. Hin php sa i 2013 ............................................................................................... 37

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DN NHP

Nm 2013 c trng bi trng thi n nh c p v m v nhng n l c thot khi trng thi

tr tr c p vi m. Cc ch bo gi nn kinh t l y li cn bng t c sc lm pht cao

nm 2011 v suy gim kinh t nm 2012. Mi trng v m ang xc tin cc hot ng kinh

t quay tr li cng v i cc iu chnh c c u. V pha tng cung, nng su t th p v chi ph

cao tip tc eo bm doanh nghip (DN), cng v i l sc p cnh tranh gay gt trong bi

cnh mi trng kinh doanh v iu kin sn xu t t ci thin. V pha tng cu, tiu dng v

u t t nhn b km hm bi sc mua yu v tm l thn trng. Nhu cu t bn ngoi y

mnh hot ng xu t nhp khu, m c hng li nhiu nh t l sn phm in t, giy

d p, v dt may ca cc DN c vn u t n c ngoi (TNN); nh hng n khu v c

trong n c l hn ch. Tuy thu ngn sch st gim do DN suy yu, chi tiu ngn sch khng

gim tng ng, thm ht nghim trng buc vay n gia tng. Ngoi thm ht ngn sch, cn

cn thanh ton thng d l n c cn cn vng lai v cn cn vn, to iu kin iu tit

li su t v t gi. Li su t tip tc gim v d tha vn nhng hiu qu kch thch ln vay

mn tng i hn ch do nhu cu vay vn th p. Th trng chng khon si ng trong

nm khi cc ch s chng khon chnh u tng v s tham gia ca nh u t n c ngoi.

Th trng b t ng sn chng kin mt s thay i trong c u trc khi hot ng mua bn si

ng tr li, ch yu ti phn khc nh x hi v nh cho ngi thu nhp th p. Quy nh

ch m dt huy ng v iu tit ngun cung trong n c ca Ngn hng Nh n c khin vng

khng cn l mt phng tin h p dn u t nh nhiu nm tr c.

Nghin cu ny s i vo nhn dng v phn tch cc v n v m trong nm 2013, nh

hng ca nhng din bin trn tng cung v tng cu i v i cc cn i v m v cc th

trng ti sn. Ni tip l cc tho lun v chnh sch v m c trin khai trong nm 2013,

nh gi kt qu v tnh kh thi trong vic x l cc im nghn ca nn kinh t. Phn kt

lun im li nhn nh ca nh m tc gi v mt vi thng ip chnh sch.

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DIN BIN KINH T V M

Nn kinh t Vit Nam c th trong mu hnh suy gim k p khi tng trng ch hi phc

nh vo nm 2010 v ni tip sau l 2 nm lin tc suy gim tng trng. Tuy tng trng

vn dng v khng ri vo suy thoi, mt nn kinh t ri vo mu hnh ny khng d dng

hi phc v k vng ca ngi tiu dng v doanh nghip c tnh cao. Din bin cc nm

2012 v 2013 minh ho s chm chp . Tng trng t mc 5,42% trong nm 2013, ch

nhnh hn 2012 (5,25%) v 2009 (5,40%). Nm d i ngng trung bnh 7% ca giai on

tr c khng hong, n cui nm 2012 th tng trng vn th p hn mc tim nng (Nguyn

c Thnh v cng s , 2014).

Tng trng chm li trong nm 2011 v 2012 d y ln nhng quan ngi v nguy c suy

gim su hn v s cn nhiu nm hi phc v giai on tr c suy gim. V i tc tng

trng nm 2013 v qu 1 nm 2014, so snh v i mc tng ca cc nm tr c, th biu hin

ca s trm lng l r rng v nn kinh t khng d t tr li mc tng ca giai on tr c

suy gim. Tc tng trng ca cc ngnh c p 1 ch cao hn mc th p nh t chng kin

trong giai on suy gim su (Hnh 1). S phc hi m i manh nha mt s lnh v c v nu

c th vn tng i yu so v i giai on tr c.

H 1. GDP eo 2005-2013, ph m, 2010

Ngun: 2005-2012: ADB; 2013: c tnh ca TCTK (2014a)

Tc tng trng tng phn l n gia khu v c linh hot nh t l d ch v v ch bin ch to

so v i khu v c tr tr nh t l nng nghip v khai khong. Lnh v c d ch v tip tc l b

ca tng trng kinh t khi duy tr tc tng trn %/nm trong su nm tr li (d vn th p

hn mc 8% ca giai on tr c suy gim kinh t). Nm trong xu h ng i xung di hn k

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Tng trng chung Nng, lm v thy sn

Cng nghip-xy d ng D ch v

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t 2005, tng trng ca cng nghip-xy d ng suy gim nm th 3 lin tip, cn 5,43%

trong 2013, nhng trong th ch bin ch to (+7,44%) tng nhanh hn so v i xy d ng

(5,83%) v khai khong (-0,2%). Nng, lm nghip v thy sn tng trng x p x nm 2012

(2,67%) l mt d u hiu cho th y tim nng tng trng ang cn kit v nng su t ca

ngnh (ch yu l trng trt) gn nh khng tng. V tng th, nng su t chung ca c nn

kinh t tng chm li do tng trng GDP th p hn tr c, trong lc l c lng lao ng

duy tr mc tng trung bnh 2% mt nm. Nguyn c Thnh v cng s (2014) cng ch ra

xu h ng tng trng di hn gim xung k t 2005 song hnh cng v i s suy gim ca

cc yu t nng su t tng hp (TFP).

Bng 1 th hin s thay i c c u kinh t trong 10 nm tr li c trng bi s thu hp v t

trng GDP ca nng nghip v s tng ln tng ng trong 2 lnh v c cn li. T trng GDP

ca nng nghip gim t 20% vo nm 2004 xung 18,4% vo nm 2013, trong khi t trng

ca cng nghip-xy d ng tng ln 38,3% GDP v t trng ca d ch v 43,3%. ng ch l

s thay i c c u n i trn khng nh t qun m c s iu chnh theo h ng ngc li trong

nm 2008 v 2011, khi cng nghip v d ch v gim tng trng, cn nng nghip tng cao

cng v i lm pht gi nng sn.

Bng 1. T tr GDP eo l vc kinh t 2004-2013, phn m

N m N , lm v thy sn

C p v xy dng

Dch v

2004 20.0% 37.5% 42.5%

2005 19.3% 38.1% 42.6%

2006 18.7% 38.6% 42.7%

2007 18.7% 38.5% 42.8%

2008 20.4% 37.1% 42.5%

2009 19.2% 37.4% 43.4%

2010 18.9% 38.2% 42.9%

2011 20.1% 37.9% 42.0%

2012 19.7% 38.6% 41.7%

2013* 18.4% 38.3% 43.3%

Ngun: t 2004 n 2012: ADB, 2013*: c tnh ca TCTK, 2014a.

Chu k kinh t

Ni tip cc tnh ton ca Nguyn c Thnh v cng s (2014) trong Chng 2 Bo co

Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2013, cc tc gi tip tc phn tch d liu tng trng kinh

t trong giai on 1990-2013 lm ni bt cc chu k kinh t qua v xu h ng tim nng

ca nn kinh t Vit Nam.

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H 2. P c xu ng kinh t Vit Nam 1990-2013, ph m ng

Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu TCTK. S liu nm 2013 v 2014 c quy i t gi 2010.

th 3 cho th y bc tranh khi qut v cc chu k kinh t bng n v v ni tip nhau k

t 1990 t i hin ti. Thi k tng trng bng n di nh t l giai on t 1991 n 1998,

ngay sau cc ci cch mang tnh m ca. Tip theo l 3 nm suy gim hu khng hong

ti chnh chu . Pha bng n trong 3 nm t 2004 n 2007 kt thc khi khng hong ti

chnh th gi i xy ra cui nm 2008. Nhng d m t g i kch thch kinh t trong nm 2009

khng k o di lu, v nn kinh t tng trng d i tim nng cho t i na u nm 2013.

ng ngn hn o chiu ng nh t v i nhng tn hiu tch c c trong sn xu t v xu t khu

xu t hin k t na cui 2013.

th 4 cung c p ci nhn r hn v cc chu k ngn hn. Ch s chu k lm trn l trung

bnh trt ba qu ca ch s chu k. Cc yu t thun li trong nm 2014 c th cng c

h ng i ln ny, nhng liu nn kinh t c th thot c mu hnh suy gim k p hay tip

tc tng trng v i tc nh hin ti vn cha c d u hiu r rng. Kh nng th hai l cao

hn khi cc im tc nghn ca nn kinh t v ri ro v m tch t sau nhiu nm suy gim v

b t n vn cha c gii quyt, v cc chnh sch va qua ch nhm khng ch cc k ch bn

x u nh t.

H 3. P c chu k kinh t 1990-2013, ph m

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,120

3-9

0

01-9

1

11-9

1

09-9

2

07-9

3

05-9

4

03-9

5

01-9

6

11-9

6

09-9

7

07-9

8

05-9

9

03-0

0

01-0

1

11-0

1

09-0

2

07-0

3

05-0

4

03-0

5

01-0

6

11-0

6

09-0

7

07-0

8

05-0

9

03-1

0

01-1

1

11-1

1

09-1

2

07-1

3

Chui gc Loi tr yu t ma v

ng xu th ngn hn ng xu th di hn

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Ngun: tnh ton ca tc gi

m

tng ca gi hng ho v d ch v trong nm 2013 chm hn so v i cc nm 2008, 2010,

2011 v tng ng v i giai on lm pht va phi t 2005 n 2007. Tuy nhin, lm pht

th p trong nm 2013 khng i lin v i tc tng trng trn 7% nh giai on tr c.

T l lm pht tnh theo ch s gi tiu dng (CP ) t mc bnh qun , 0% tnh theo nm.

y l mc th p nh t trong 4 nm gn y v ch cao hn nm 2009 (5,9%) trong 8 nm gn

nh t. D ch u nh hng t thay i gi hng ho c bn v d ch v cng, t l lm pht c

nm tng i th p do thiu l c k o t pha cu, c hai nh m lm pht li v ngoi li.

H 4. T l l m eo m 2009-2014, ph m

-4,0%

-3,0%

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

chu k chu k lm trn

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

li ton phn ngoi li

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Ngun: tnh ton ca tc gi d a vo s liu ca TCTK, 2013

Ch tiu lm pht li th hin hin trng k m sng sa ca tng cu. Xu h ng gim ca lm

pht li k o di sut nm 2013 v lan sang n thng 2/2014. Khng ging nm 2012, lm

pht tng tng i th p trong Tt Nguyn n 2013 ri sau cun vo qu o i

xung. Lm pht li t 0% vo thng Tt 2014 l kt qu ca s tch lu sc cu tiu dng

trong nm 2013.

i xung ca lm pht ch ch u ngt qung nh t thi bi s iu chnh gi cc d ch v

cng, gm thuc, d ch v y t (45, 3%) v gio dc (14,17%). Mc tng hai nh m ny

ng g p mt na mc tng CP c nm. Ngoi ra, mc tng gi hng h a c bn nh in,

xng du, v gas cng g p gn 10% mc tng c nm. nh hng tng gi ca cc nh m

hng tiu dng khc chim khong 25%. Bu chnh vin thng l ngnh duy nh t ghi nhn

gim ch s gi, -0,48%.

H 5. T l l m l eo 2009-2014, ph m

Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton theo s liu ca TCTK (2013b). Lm pht li khng bao gm lng th c, th c phm,

v giao thng.

T l lm pht tnh theo ch s iu chnh GDP (dGDP) t mc 4,76%, th p hn t l tng

tnh theo CPI. Mc tng ny cng c nhng hoi nghi v hin tng lm pht th p do lu

lng kinh t suy gim. Th c ch t CPI o lng nh hng t i ngi tiu dng v trong nm

2013 cng ch u nh hng nhiu t s thay i gi d ch v cng. Mc tng ca CPI cng

hm ngi tiu dng ang phi ch u p l c v gi cao hn mt bng chung ca nn kinh t.

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

CP li CP li tr ma v CP _xu h ng

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pha ngi sn xu t, ch s gi bn sn phm nng lm thu sn tng nh 0,57%, ch yu

do mc gim gi ca sn phm ngnh chn nui (2,38%), trong khi ch s gi bn sn phm

cng nghip tng 5,25%, do mc tng tng i th p ca ngnh ch bin ch to (3,4%).

I. Cc cu

N

Xu h ng i xung ca ngnh thu sn v nng nghip l ngy mt r rng. Gi tr sn xu t

nng nghip v thy sn tng ln lt c mc tng 2,47% v 4,22% so v i nm 2012, u l

mc th p nh t k t 2001. Ngc li, lm nghip ang tng trng nhanh dn, v i tc

tng gi tr sn xu t trong nm 2013 l ,04% t mc 1% ca 10 nm tr c.

H 6 xu 2001-2013

Ngun: TCTK (2014a)

Nng su t la ci thin chm l mt v n i v i ngnh nng nghip Vit Nam m v tr

trung tm l cy la. Mc d din tch gieo ht tng ln nhng mc gia tng sn lng go

ch bng 1/3 mc ca nm 2012. Nng su t khng tng l mt ro cn khng ch i v i

ngnh m cn c nn kinh t khi khu v c ny vn tp trung gn 50% l c lng lao ng.

Kinh nghim t cnh ng mu l n cho th y Vit Nam cn nhiu tim nng y mnh sn

xu t. Ngoi ra, cn xem x t li th c quyn nh n c v xu t khu go v chnh sch tm

tr go khi hai chnh sch ny ang t ra thiu hiu qu trong vic gi gi tr v xy d ng

thng hiu ca go Vit Nam.

Ngnh chn nui v nui trng ang chng kin nhng iu chnh c c u nhm tng hiu qu

nh quy m. Chn nui nh l s tip tc thu hp do thiu hiu qu v ang phi i mt v i

s cnh tranh t cc DN l n ang thm nhp th trng v i s ch ng v ging v thc n.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Nng nghip Lm nghip Thu sn

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Quy m ngnh chn nui thay i, trong khi quy m n b sa tng 11,6%, gia sc l y th t

gim v c s lng n v sn lng t 1-2%. n xu t c tra cng chng kin suy gim

khu v c h gia nh, gia tng khu v c DN.

Nhu cu cao v i sn phm g thc y sn lng khai thc (tng ,8%) v hot ng trng

rng, ch yu cc tnh min Trung. Gi tr sn xu t tng nhanh dn t 2007 n 2013 cho

th y tim nng ca ngnh cn nhiu nu duy tr trng bi hon rng hp l.

C

Sn xu t cng nghip nm 2013 tng kh nh sc bt ca ngnh ch bin ch to trong na

cui nm. Ch s sn xu t cng nghip (IPI) ton ngnh tng 5,9% theo nm, trong ngnh

ch bin ch to tng 7,4%, ng g p 90% mc tng PI ton ngnh. D mc tng P nm

2013 cao hn nm 2012 (4,8%), ngnh cng nghip vn cha bt ph nhiu khi so snh v i

2010 (1 ,3%) v 2011 ( ,8%).

H 7. IPI eo 2011-2013, ph m

Ngun: TCTK (2013b)

Hai ch bo tiu th in v ch s s dng lao ng cng gi sn xu t cng nghip khng

ci thin nhiu so v i 2012. Lng in thng phm ca ngnh cng nghip v xy d ng

nm 2013 tng 9,35% so v i 2012 v chim 52,8% lng in tiu th ca nn kinh t (tiu

th in ca c nn kinh t tng 9,09%). Tc tng tiu th in ca nn kinh t gim dn

so v i giai on tr c (trung bnh giai on 2000-2005 l 15%, 2006-2010 l 12,5%) mt

phn c nguyn nhn t s thoi tro ca cc ngnh cng nghip dng nhiu nng lng nh

th p v xi mng, trong khi cc nh my ch bin, lp rp tiu th in t hn ang n r; bn

cnh l tc th ho ang chm li.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ton ngnh Khai thc Ch bin ch to in, gas, n c

15

V tng th, cc DN cng nghip ang gia tng s dng lao ng, m phn l n trong s ny

thuc v cc DN c vn TNN. Ch s s dng lao ng ti thi im 01/12/2013 tng 4,3%

so v i cng k nm tr c, trong mc tng cao nh t ti cc DN c vn TNN v i 6,8%,

tip theo l DN ngoi Nh n c v i 3,6%. Ch s s dng lao ng ti cc DNNN gim 1%

trong nm 2013, hm cc DNNN ang thu hp quy m do tnh hnh kinh doanh kh khn.

H 8. ay i ch s sn xu c p 2010-2014, ph m

Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton theo s liu TCTK (2013b)

S liu PI c iu chnh ma v cng cho th y sn xu t cng nghip tip tc m rng, d

v i tc th p hn 2 nm lin tr c. Trong na cui 2013, sn xu t cng nghip l y thm

gia tc. y l mt tn hiu tt khi s phc hi mnh m hn ca ngnh sn xu t s gia c

trin vng phc hi kinh t; tuy nhin, cn lu rng cc ch bo xu t nhp khu v s dng

lao ng cho th y DN c vn TNN ng g p phn l n vo s ci thin ny v nn tng ca

s hi phc l cha chc chn.

Ngnh ch bin, ch to tng trng kh trong nm 2013 nh p l c gim b t t hng tn

kho v tc tiu th ci thin. Ch s tiu th sn phm nm 2013 tng 10,1% so v i 2012,

c th l nh n hng xu t khu nhiu hn t n c ngoi. Ch s tn kho theo gim

nhanh t 21,5% (so cng k nm tr c) ti thi im 01/01/2013 xung 8,8% vo

01/07/2013, tr c khi nhch ln 10,2% vo 01/12/2013.

H 9. Cc ch bo c bin ch t o 2011-2014, ph m ay i

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

-30,0

-20,0

-10,0

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

P gc - tri P tch ma v - tri chu k - phi

16

Ngun: TCTK (2013b)

Ch s Nh qun tr Mua hng (PM ) ngnh sn xu t ca Vit Nam cho th y iu kin sn

xu t nm 2013 khng nhiu thun li, d b t m m hn nm 2012 (mc im trn 50 hm

iu kin sn xu t ci thin so v i thng tr c v ngc li). PMI t trn 50 im vo 4

thng cui nm hm tnh hnh sn xu t ang tt dn ln khi c 3 ch s ph l sn lng,

n hng, v vic lm u tng. Nu ch s tng hp duy tr trn 50 im cho n u qu III

nm 2014 th c th khng nh s phc hi ang n mt cch vng chc.

H 10. Ch s Mua N n xu t 2011-2013 (PMI)

gun: HSBC-Markit (2013)

Bin li nhun ca cc DN gim khi gi c u vo khng ngng tng, nhiu thng v i bin

l n, trong khi gi u ra gim lin tc v c mc ng k vo 2 qu gia nm (trng

v i giai on PMI xung y). Trong bi cnh gi hng ho c bn trn th trng th gi i i

xung trong nm 2013 do nhu cu gim st cc nn kinh t m i ni, th gi u vo lin tc

-20,0

-10,0

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

n xu t Tn kho Tiu th

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Tc ci thin nhanh hn

Tc suy yu nhanh hn

17

gia tng dng nh l mt bng chng ca s gia tng chuyn gi ti cc DN c TNN v

chi ph logistics trong n c thay i theo h ng b t li.

Dc v

D ngnh d ch v tuy tng trng cao nh t trong s cc lnh v c kinh t, cc kh khn cha

hn qua i. Giao d ch b t ng sn vn m m, ngoi tr phn khc bnh dn, tng 2,2%.

Hot ng kinh t k m si ng khin ngnh vn ti, kho bi v bn bun, bn l tng ln

lt 5,59% v ,52%. Ngnh d ch v lu tr v n ung, thng tin truyn thng c mc tng

cao hn c, tng ng l 9,91% v 8,82%.

Doanh thu bn l tng yu do nhu cu tiu dng b kim ch. au khi loi tr nh hng tng

gi, doanh thu bn l tng th c t 5, %, th p hn nm 2012 ( ,5%) v 2010 (14%). Trong s

cc nh m ngnh c p 1, thng nghip, khch sn - nh hng v d ch v tng 12-13% trong

Hp 1. Logistics Vit Nam

Logistics (t gn ngha nh t l hu cn) khng ch gn v i hot ng kho bi v vn ti, m l

ton b qu trnh ln k hoch, p dng v kim sot cc lung chuyn d ch ca hng ho v

thng tin lin quan t ni xu t pht n ni tiu th. C quy m 20-22 t D/nm, ngnh

logistics ti Vit Nam c tc tng trng hng nm 20%, v c k vng duy tr mc tng

nh vy trong 5 nm t i do tim nng di do (StockPlus, 2014) . Bo co Kho vn hiu qu

(WB, 2014) xc nh gia tng nng l c cnh tranh thng qua nng cao hiu qu vn ti, kho vn

ngy cng tr thnh mt ng l c tng trng bn vng quan trng i v i Vit Nam.

Theo nhiu c tnh, chi ph logistics chim khong 13-15% GDP ca Vit Nam (cc c tnh

mc 20-25% GDP cha c kim chng v thiu c s khoa hc, nn c tham chiu thn

trng). Nh vy, logistics Vit Nam v th tng i c li so v i n c trong khu v c nh

Thi Lan (20% GDP), Malaysia (13%), v b t li hn cc n c pht trin nh Singapore (8%),

M (9,9%) hay Nht (10,6%) (WB, 2013). Ch s hiu nng logistics ca Vit Nam nm 2014

dn u nh m cc n c thu nhp trung bnh th p. Mt im yu c xc nh t th c o ny

l nng l c thng quan (customs) cha theo k p s ci thin cc chiu kch khc, m theo WB

(2014) l do s chm tr t quy trnh th cng; do , cn s m t ng ho ton b quy trnh.

Bng 1.H1. Ch s hiu logistics (LPI)

Ch s (th

hng)

Nng l c

thng quan

C s h tng

Vn ti quc t

Nng l c v ch t lng

logistics

Kh nng truy xu t

Thi gian thng quan

2007 2.89 (53) 2.89 2.50 3.00 2.80 2.90 3.22

2010 2.96 (53) 2.68 2.56 3.04 2.89 3.10 3.44

2012 3.00 (53) 2.65 2.68 3.14 2.68 3.16 3.64

2014 3.15 (48) 2.81 3.11 3.22 3.09 3.19 3.49

Ngun: Arvis, 2014

18

khi du l ch tng 3,5%, tc l mc tng rng r t th p nu loi tr nh hng ca lm pht gi.

Nh vy, ngn sch chi tiu c iu chnh dnh cho cc nhu cu c bn nh t.

cc

Trong nm 2013, gi u vo v gi u ra u tng, tp trung nh m ti nguyn. Ch s gi

nguyn vt liu u vo cho sn xu t nm 2013 tng 3,05% so v i nm 2012, cao nh t

nh m khai khong (9,63%) v n c sch (8,45%). pha u ra, ch s gi bn sn phm

cng nghip tng 5,25% so v i 2012, th p hn mc tng 2 nm tr c. Trong , hng cng

nghip ch bin tng tng i th p (3,40%) so v i khai khong ( , 8%), in (9,2%), v

n c (7,23%), m nguyn nhn ch yu l sc p cnh tranh l n v nhu cu yu hn ch

cc DN trong vic iu chnh gi bn.

T l th t nghip nm 2013 lun cao hn cng k 2012 v c xu h ng cao hn thnh th .

T l th t nghip trn c n c vo cui nm 2013 mc 2,2%, trong thnh th l 3,58%

v nng thn l 1,58%. Th t nghip tng do nn kinh t khng to vic lm cho s

ngi m i gia nhp th trng (khong 1 triu ngi mi nm) v s b m t vic do DN ph

sn v ngng hot ng.

Th trng chnh thc cnh tranh hn thc y khu v c phi chnh thc m rng. T l lao

ng trong khu v c phi chnh thc t 34,6% (nm 2010) tng ln 35,8% (nm 2011) ri

36,6% (nm 2012) do lao ng khng tm c vic hoc m t vic khu v c chnh thc

chuyn sang. Khuynh h ng gia tng ny c th tip din trong nm 2013, d theo c

tnh ban u th t l ny t 33,4%, trong thnh th tin gn hn t i 50%.

H 11. T l th t nghi v u vic lm qu 2010-2012

Ngun: TCTK

2,88%

2,22% 2,08%

1,87%

2,06%

1,81%

2,27% 2,17%

2,32% 2,20%

3,57%

2,96% 3,09%

2,39%

2,75% 2,71%

3,12%

2,51% 2,64%

2,77%

1,50%

1,90%

2,30%

2,70%

3,10%

3,50%

3,90%

Th t nghip Thiu vic lm

19

II. Cc cu

u d c

Tiu dng c nhn t ci thin. Bn cnh th c o tng doanh thu bn l hng ho v d ch v

(tng th c t 5,6%) th theo g c s dng GDP, tiu dng cui cng tng 5,3 % so v i nm

2012. D nhnh hn so v i hai nm tr c nhng tc tng vn th p hn giai on tr c suy

gim. Do tng chm hn tc tng GDP, t l GDP dnh cho tiu dng cui cng gim dn

k t nm 2009 (v i mt ngoi l vo nm 2010) xung cn 5% GDP trong nm 2013.

H 12. S d GDP c o u d m, 2005-2013

Ngun: 2005-2012: ADB (2013), 2013: c TCTK (2014a)

Tiu dng tng chm c nguyn nhn t xu h ng u tin tit kim v ct gim chi tiu ca

h gia nh. Tuy vy, thi bi quan ca ngi tiu dng trong nm 2013 o chiu khi ch

s nim tin ngi tiu dng (do Nielsen kho st) tng t mc y 87 im vo qu /2012

ln 98 im vo qu V/2013. Mt s gia tng tr li ca ch s ny thng bo tr c khuynh

h ng tng chi tiu ca ngi tiu dng. Ch s ny khng thay i nhiu trong nm 2013

(tng 2 im trong c nm) phn nh th c t tiu dng t ci thin v kh c kh nng bt ph

khi nhiu ngi tiu dng cn hoi nghi v kh nng hi phc ca nn kinh t.

C u c

Tng chi ngn sch nm 2013 ( c tnh ln 1 (BTC, 2013)) t gn 931 nghn t ng, tng

ng 26% GDP, v i t trng l n nh t thuc v chi thng xuyn (78%). o v i nm 2012,

khon mc gia tng nhanh nh t trong chi thng xuyn l chi quc phng, an ninh (trn

13%), chi c bit, gio dc o to v s nghip kinh t (cng trn 8%).

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

T l so GDP (phi) Tng trng (tri)

20

Chi thng xuyn tng nhanh do iu chnh lng ti thiu hng nm v s m rng ca khu

v c cng. T 2008 n 2013, lng ti thiu c iu chnh hng nm, ln gn nh t (tng

9,5% vo ngy 01/07/2013) c th c hin s m hn l trnh na nm. Cc ln iu chnh

lng ti thiu lin tip nhm b p sc mua yu i ca ng tin khi lm pht tng nhanh

trong giai on tr c. Lao ng khu v c cng bng n cng to sc p ln chi thng xuyn

cng v i s bnh tr ng ca khu v c kinh t nh n c. Trong giai on 2007-2012, i ng

vin chc tng hn 25%, cng chc tng 15%4, ch yu c p a phng. i hi ct gim

bin ch ngy cng bc thit khi ngn sch t i gi i hn phi vay n b p chi thng

xuyn ch khng cn ch dnh u t pht trin5, mt biu hin ca s thiu bn vng.

H 13 C c m 2010-2013, v m

gun BTC (2013)

Chi u t pht trin cho th y ang c s iu chnh khi t 219 nghn t ng trong nm

2013, gim t 2 8 nghn t ng trong nm 2012.

u

Tng u t ton x hi nm 2013 chim 30,4% GDP, thu hp ng k t mc trn 40%

GDP nhiu nm tr c. Quy m u t trn GDP gim ang gip h nhit nn kinh t, hn ch

mc lng ph trong u t nhng cng ng thi km ch GDP khi m hnh tng trng

vn ch yu theo chiu rng.

4 nh Qun (2013), B my cng chc tng ln theo tng nm, Thanh Nin Online, ti

http://www.thanhnien.com.vn/pages/20131120/bo-may-cong-chuc-tang-len-theo-tung-nam.aspx 5 Phm Th Anh, tr li phng v n bo Tui tr, N cng sp t i ln ranh , Tui Tr Online, ti

http://tuoitre.vn/Chinh-tri-Xa-hoi/602647/no-cong-sap-toi-lan-ranh-do.html

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

35,00%

40,00%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2011 2012 2013

Chi u t Chi thng xuyn

Tr n v vin tr Chi ngn sch/GDP (phi)

21

Tnh theo gi so snh th vn u t nh n c khng tng trong ba nm gn y, t trng u

t nh n c trong tng u t ton x hi gim t trn 50% giai on 2001-2005 cn khong

37% vo nm 2013. Tuy nhin, ti c c u u t cng trong thi gian qua, nu c , ch mang

tnh i ph v i tnh trng thiu kh nng cn i vn, u t dn tri, thiu ng b hn l

kt qu ca mt th ch phn b v qun l vn u t nh n c hiu qu hn c p a

phng6. u t tr c tip n c ngoi ( D ) ang dn dt tc m rng u t ca nn kinh

t. Theo s hu, u t ca cc DN c vn TNN tng 9,9% so v i 8,6% ca khu v c nh

n c v , % ca khu v c ngoi nh n c. Cc mc tng trn u cha iu chnh yu t

gi; do vy, mc tng th c t s th p hn. Vn ng k v c p m i D t khong 23 t

USD (tng 40% so v i 2012) cho th y nim tin ca nh u t n c ngoi ang quay li nh

nhng thay i tch c c trong n c.

H 14 u c c o m 2006-2013, D v m

gun: tnh ton ca tc gi t s liu ca TCTK (2014a)

Vn TNN gii ngn t 11,5 t USD, tng 9,9% so v i 2012; tuy vn gii ngn cao nh t

trong nhiu nm nhng t l gii ngn so v i GDP gim cn ,7% t mc 12,7% nm 2008.

Tng t , so v i tng u t ton x hi th TNN gim t 30,4% xung 22% (2013). Nh

vy, so v i giai on tr c khng hong, vn TNN vo Vit Nam gim tng i. iu ny

c th xu t pht t s nhn thc ca nh u t v nhng ro cn khi sn xu t kinh doanh ti

Vit Nam. l mi trng kinh doanh k m thn thin (ng th 99/189 v Thun li Kinh

doanh (WB, 2013)), thiu t do kinh t (xp th 147/178 v T do Kinh t (Miller v cng

6 Bch Ngc (2013), TS. Nguyn nh Cung: C cu DN th kh m ti c c u! Bo t Vit, online ti

http://baodatviet.vn/chinh-tri-xa-hoi/tin-tuc-thoi-su/tsnguyen-dinh-cung-co-cuu-dn-thi-kho-ma-tai-co-cau-

2360365/

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Vn ng k Vn gii ngn D gii ngn/GDP

22

s , 2014)), v tham nhng lan trn (xp th 116/177 v Nhn thc Tham nhng). Vic xu t

hin cc d n TNN c quy m l n t USD l thnh qu ca nhng u i ti a nhm

li k o cc nh u t n c ngoi vo Vit Nam v c s u tin vo cc khu cng nghip

pha Bc. D theo cc tnh, thnh ph c s phn bit r rng: cc thnh ph trung ng thu

ht cc doanh nghip trong lnh v c cng ngh cao d a vo ngun ch t xm ti ch, cn cc

tnh m i ni thu ht cc ngnh ch bin ch to do c chi ph lao ng th p v nhng u i

l n v m rng u t.

Bng 2. Th h cc bng xp h m ng kinh doanh 2010-2013

C 2010 2011 2012 2013

Nhn thc tham nhng 116 112 123 116

T do Kinh t (im) 144 (51,6) 136 (51,3) 140 (51) 147 (50,8)

Thun li kinh doanh 88 98 98 99

Cnh tranh ton cu (im) 59 (4,3) 65 (4,2) 75 (4,1) 70 (4,18)

Ngun: T chc Minh bch Quc t, Qu Heritage (Miller, Kim v Holmes, 2014), Ngn hng Th gi i (WB,

2013), Din n Kinh t th gi i (Schwab, 2013).

m

Hp 2. NN d i d v mua l i (M&A)

Mt xu h ng ang n r trong vn TNN l st nhp v mua li m ch yu l mua bn c phn cc doanh nghip ni a, ch yu l cc DN s dng n by ti chnh cao v gp trc trc trong kinh doanh, thm nhp th trng v gii quyt cc nhu cu n c bn a. Do quy nh hin ti hn ch t l s hu ca nh TNN mt s cc lnh v c quan trng nn cc thng v st nhp v mua li cha k o theo s thu t m DN cc lnh v c ny.

Cc thng v mua bn t cc i tc Nht Bn nhm vo lnh v c ti chnh v tiu dng (chim trn 25% tng gi tr M&A), cc i tc Trung Quc nhm vo cc lnh v c khai thc ti nguyn, v cc i tc A EAN vo lnh v c xy d ng v vt liu.

Bng 1.H2 S th v v ca cc v M&A m, 2009-2013.

S thng v Tng gi tr (t USD)

Vn TNN (t USD)

T Nht Bn (t USD)

2009 295 1,14

2010 245 1,75

2011 267 6,25 2,6 0,9

2012 157 4,9 3,5 1,2

Ngun:B KH-T

Gi tr ca cc thng v M&A l n dn theo hng nm, v d kin s cn tng mnh trong cc nm t i, khi mi trng kinh doanh thun li hn v php lut cho ph p t l s hu cao hn v i cc nh TNN v i mc ch thu ht vn v kinh nghim qun l h tr ti c c u v v c li cc DN trong n c ang kh khn.

23

Thng mi nm 2013 tip tc khi sc nh cc DN c vn TNN. Kim ngch xu t khu t

132,1 t D, tng 15,4%, trong khi nhp khu t kim ngch 132,13 t D, tng 16,1%.

H 15. Kim ng c m i 1995-2013, t USD

Ngun: IMF, TCTK

Khi DN c vn TNN chim 61% kim ngch xu t khu v 56% kim ngch nhp khu. Cc

DN ny t tng trng kim ngch 2 chiu thng mi khong 25% nh cc sn phm in

t, in thoi, dt may, giy d p. Kim ngch in t in thoi chim t trng 4,4% trong

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Cn cn Xu t khu, fob Nhp khu, cif

24

nm 2008 tng ln 24% trong nm 2013 v vt qua nh m nng sn t nm 2012. Do

hm lng nhp khu l n, xu t khu ca khu v c ny ng g p khng nhiu cho GDP.

Cng nghip ph tr yu v mng, gia tng sn xu t v xu t khu k o theo gia tng nhp

khu linh kin. Cc ngnh sn xu t c xu t khu nhiu nh t cng ghi nhn nhp khu nhiu

nh t, nh bng, vi, nguyn liu giy d p, linh kin in t v linh kin in thoi. Mc

nhp khu hng cng nghip ph tr phn nh kh nng cung c p r t hn ch trong n c;

lin kt k m gia DN trong n c v i DN n c ngoi ng ngha v i cng ngh khng

c chuyn giao. y l mt nguy c l n trong trng hp cc d n ny rt khi Vit

Nam, hu qu tim tng l mt l hng l n v nng l c sn xu t trong nn kinh t v thnh

qu nhiu nm ci cch b cun tri.

Kim ngch xu t khu than , du th gim mnh; hng nng sn nh c ph, go v sn u

m t gi v lng. iu ny gii thch tc tng khim tn 3,5% ca khu v c kinh t trong

n c v phn l n DN trong n c vn cha tm c h ng m i cho sn xu t v u ra trong

sn phm trong bi cnh cnh tranh ton cu gay gt.

L nm th hai khng cn nhp siu, cn cn thng mi Vit Nam thng d 9 triu D do

s cn bng gia nhp siu ca khu v c kinh t trong n c (6,48 t USD, tnh c nhp xng

du) v i xu t siu ca khu v c c vn TNN.

III. Cc c v m

C c a o

Trong nm 2013, cn cn vng lai c h tr bi dng kiu hi di do v cn cn thng

mi cn bng. Ngoi hi c nm c t 10,65 t D, tng 6,5% so v i mc 10 t USD

trong nm 2012 (WB). Cn cn vng lai c nm c t thng d t 5,2% GDP (ADB) n

5,6% GDP (IMF, WB).

Cn cn vn v ti chnh c h tr nh vn FDI (6,7% GDP), song s t thng d th p

hn nm ngoi do dng tin gi chuyn ra n c ngoi (v i lu lng l n trong qu /2013)

khi s cn bng gia VN v D lung lay. Mc lin kt th trng ti chnh quc t

tng i th p t Vit Nam bn ngoi vng xoy b t n tin t ti mt s th trng m i ni

trong khu v c.

H 16 C c a o 1996-2013, t USD

25

Ngun: IMF

Nhm th c hin mc tiu n nh t gi, NHNN tip tc mua vo ngoi hi trong nm 2013

v i s h tr ca cn cn thanh ton thng d. Cc c tnh t d tr ngoi hi Vit Nam

mc 25,5 t USD vo cui nm 2013, tng ng 12 tun nhp khu. y cha phi l mc

d phng l n khi Vit Nam tng gnh ch u nhiu t rt vn mnh trong vi nm gn

y. chng tt hn v i cc c sc t bn ngoi, lng d tr ti thiu c khuyn co

mc 15 tun nhp khu. Cc n c trong khu v c c th trng ti chnh m hn ang c d

tr ngoi hi mc r t l n nh Thi Lan (1 0 t USD), Malaysia (140 t D), v

Indonesia (100 t USD).

C c c

Tng thu ngn sch 2013 c t 819.334 t ng, vt 0,4% d ton; nu loi tr khon ghi

thu N NN th thu cn i th p hn 1,3% so v i d ton. Thm ht ngn sch 2013 c t

190.200 t ng, tng ng 5,15% GDP, th p hn mc Quc hi thng qua vo cui nm

l 5,3%. Ngun thu b nh hng bi ln s ng DN ph sn buc Chnh ph tng cng

mt s khon thu ni a, bao gm thu c tc DNNN v li nhun li t cc Tp on,

Tng cng ty (29.190 t ng), tin li du kh (3.980 t ng) v gn 12.000 t ng khc.

Mc thm ht vt 5% GDP v cao hn 2 nm lin tr c ang t ra nhng hoi nghi v tnh

bn vng ca ngn sch v kh nng kim sot n cng. Trong khi ngun thu gim i do

doanh nghip suy yu th chi ngn sch khng gim tng ng v i ngun thu. au 2 nm c

d u hiu c kim ch th thm ht ngn sch tng vt trong 2 nm 2012 v 2013. Vic phi

i vay n nhiu hn s nh hng ln th trng vn, d c th khng tr c tip nhng vn

tim tng nhng ri ro, nh k vng v lm pht cao s lm gim lu lng cc hot ng

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

A. Cn cn vng lai B. Cn cn vn v ti chnh

C. Li v sai s t D. Cn cn tng th (A+B+C)

26

kinh t hoc gi cho li su t cho vay khng gim na. Hin n cng ang tng nhanh hn

GDP v t i cui 2013 c c tnh mc 95 t D, tng ng 56,2% GDP (tng so

v i 54,9% nm 2011 v 55,7% nm 2012, cha gm cc khon n n c ngoi ca DNNN);

cn n n c ngoi gim cn khong 39,5% GDP.

H 2 17 C c c 2005-2013, v m GDP

Ngun: tnh ton ca tc gi d a vo s liu ca BTC v TCTK

IV. v v

v

nh h ng iu hnh v li su t t thay i trong nm 2013 khi lm pht c d u hiu n

nh. Trong na u nm, li su t ti chit kh u v ti c p vn gim 2 im phn trm, cn

tng ng l 5% v 7%. Vo gia nm, trn li su t huy ng gim cn 7% v i k hn d i

thng, v li su t cc k hn l n hn c th ni. Th c t ti cc NHTM c thanh khon

tt th li su t huy ng ngn hn lun th p hn trn li su t t 1 n 2 im phn trm. Ni

m nh v lm pht cao trong qu kh gi li su t th c dng trong na cui nm. D li

su t huy ng tng i th p khin gi tin cng tr nn b t li nhng lng tin gi ti h

thng ngn hng tng tng i cao, trong tin gi dn c tng 23,42% cn tin gi ca

cc t chc kinh t tng 22,35%.

H 18 u t u

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thm ht/GDP (%) Thm ht (nghn t ng)

27

Ngun: NHNN, 2013a

pha cho vay, li su t huy ng v cho vay gim 2 - 3% so v i u nm, huy ng vn k

hn d i 12 thng ti a t 7,5%, trn 12 thng ti a t 8,5%. Li su t cho vay nng thn

mc 7-9%, vay sn xu t kinh doanh mc 10,5% cho cc khon vay m i. Bin li su t

rng khong 3% cho th y cc ngn hng tip tc duy tr mc chnh tng i cao x l n

x u.

Tc tng trng tn dng c phn chm li t qu /2013, ch u nh hng mt phn t

tc m rng pht hnh tri phiu t thng 8. Tuy nhin, n ht nm, tng trng tn dng

c cng b mc 12,51% so v i cui nm ngoi, mt mc tng b t thng7. X t cho c

nm, tc gia tng tn dng chm chp phn nh nn kinh t cn tng i yu. im tch

c c t tn dng tng chm l t l cho vay so v i huy ng tr v mc an ton hn i v i

ton h thng, t khong hn 100% xung cn 93% trong nm 2013.

H 19 dng

7 S liu hiu chnh trung bnh 2 thng tr c v sau cho th y mc tng trong thng 12 ch nn bng mt na

mc cng b. S tng vt vo thng 12 hng nm thng c NHNN din gii bi tnh ma v, song khng hon ton hp l khi nn kinh t khng th h p th ni lng tin nh vy m khng lm lm pht tng mnh.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

C bn Ti chit kh u Ti c p vn

28

Ngun: NHNN (2014) v tnh ton ca tc gi. D n thng 12 iu chnh bng cch l y trung bnh d n thng

11 v thng 1 nm sau.

Tng lng TPCP pht hnh qua KBNN trong nm 2013 t 190 nghn t ng, tng 13,6%

so v i 2012, nhm ti tr bi chi ngn sch. Tri phiu k hn 2-3 nm (chim 76% khi

lng pht hnh) vn c a thch bi mc ri ro th p v l knh gii ph ng vn ca

NHTM trong lc k vng kinh t phc hi. Li su t lin ngn hng th p cng l yu t thc

y NHTM tham gia th trng tri phiu, iu ny k o gim li su t tri phiu trn th

trng th c p v li su t cho thu trn th trng s c p.

Dng nh sau khi nhn th y vic gim d n tn phiu ch t c nhng kch thch tn

dng hn ch, trong khi thanh khon h thng bc l d u hiu d tha ngy cng l n v to

sc p ln t gi, NHNN pht hnh tn phiu tr li kt hp v i hot ng ht rng trn th

trng m. Theo d liu ca ADB, s d cui nm 2013 ca tri phiu kho bc l 33 ,9

nghn t ng, tn phiu NHNN l 38,5 nghn t ng. Tng cng d n tri phiu bng ng

ni t l hn 744 nghn t ng, tng ng hn 20% GDP.

H 20 D u b ng ni t, ng.

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

04-1

2

06-1

2

08-1

2

10-1

2

12-1

2

02-1

3

04-1

3

06-1

3

08-1

3

10-1

3

12-1

3

d n gc d n iu chnh

29

Ngun: ADB Bonds Online, 2014

N x u tip tc lm t lit cung tn dng. Tnh n cui thng 10/2013, NHNN cng b n

x u (ni bng) chim khong 4,73% tng d n. Con s ny cha tnh s n x u qua x l v

ang theo di ngoi bng l 105.900 t ng, chim khong 3,19% tng d n. Hng nh

gi tn dng Moodys nvestor ervices c tnh con s n x u tng cng khng d i 15%.

T i cui nm 2013, n x u ton h thng ngn hng theo s liu bo co ca cc NHTM

gim cn 3,79% nhng dng nh l kt qu ca s tng d n t bin vo thng 12 cn s

n x u khng i. NHNN c tnh con s n x u vo khong 9% do bao gm cc khon n

c c c u li v gi nguyn nh m n theo Quyt nh 780. Trong nm 2013 c 8/9 ngn

hng th c hin n ti c c u, VAMC c thnh lp v tin hnh thu mua 38.900 t ng

n gc v i gi tr tri phiu khong 32.400 t ng.

V i vic p dng quy ch iu hnh th trng m (OMO) hp l hn (h tr thanh khon

ch ng) cng v i quy nh cht ch hn (yu cu trch lp d phng), th trng lin ngn

hng c mt nm tng i trt t . Li su t qua OMO gim cn 5,5% t thng 7/2013 trong

s ng b ho v i quyt nh gim li su t iu hnh trong thng 5 cng khin li su t lin

ngn hng kh leo thang trong na cui nm. Tnh trng chung c nm l di do thanh

khon, cng thng khng k o di lu v khng lan sang th trng mt (huy ng t dn c

v t chc kinh t) nh mt s nm tr c. Giao d ch tp trung k hn qua m v 1 tun.

H 21 u b qu l , m

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Kho bc NHNN Khc Doanh nghip

30

Ngun: NHNN, 2013b

T gi c iu chnh tng 1% vo cui thng /2013 sau khi chm trn trn th trng

chnh thc trong sut hn 1 thng. p l c ln t gi ch lng xung sau khi NHNN ht VND

qua th trng m v bm ngoi t t d tr ngoi hi, bn cnh cc bin php gim st

nh m 14 NHTM c hot ng ngoi t nhiu nh t (cho d vic can thip khin li su t

lin ngn hng bin ng v nh hng n tin pht hnh tri phiu do cc NHTM l

ngi mua chnh). iu ny cho th y NHNN nh t qun duy tr nim tin ca th trng v

s n nh ca t gi. Do , xu t hin d u hiu ca hin tng carry trade ng D

tn dng chnh lch li su t khi kh nng gim gi ca tin ng l khng cao. a phn cc

NHTM duy tr trng thi m ngoi t, cng v i ngoi t ca dn c v doanh nghip chuyn

i t USD sang VND, gip NHNN mua mt lng ngoi t vo d tr m n cui nm c

t trn 25,5 t USD.

H 22 quy i VND/USD

0

5

10

15

20

25

Qua m 3 thng

31

gun NHNN (2013c), Vietcombank (VCB, 2013).

ng Vit Nam cng gim gi nh so v i cc ng tin ca cc i tc thng mi chnh, tr

Nht Bn. Nu tip tc gi t gi n nh nh hin nay, hoc k c gim gi ng tin Vit 2

- 3% trong c nm 2014 th ng tin Vit cn tng i mnh, gia tng sc p ln nn sn

xu t ca Vit Nam trong nhng nm t i, c bit v i cc doanh nghip phi cnh tranh v i

hng nhp khu.

V.

V

Ch u nh hng t nhu cu yu hn trong n c v gi vng lao dc trn th trng th gi i

(phn ng tr c quyt nh thu hp chng trnh n i lng tin t ti M), gi vng C

gim 12 triu ng/lng, tng ng 24% so v i u nm. Cui nm, gi vng ming SJC

mc 34,7 triu ng/lng, th p nh t trong vng 3 nm tr li. Nhn ch dn c a

chung so v i vng ming do mc chnh v i gi th gi i ch khong 1 triu ng/lng so

v i 3-4 triu ng/lng ca vng ming.

Thang su l thi im ch m dt hot ng huy ng vng trong h thng ngn hng v cc

t chc tn dng (d n tn dng tn khong 4 t n vng cha t t ton). Lm pht th p, mi

trng v m lnh mnh, v hot ng tn dng vng b c m cng gim thiu cc hot ng

u c lin quan n vng. Cc NHTM hon t t vic t t ton 30 t n vng huy ng (d 4

t n vng tn dng do cha o hn), song lng vng ny vn nm ti cc ngn hng do c

nhiu ri ro lin quan n vic rt ra. Lng cung vng ca NHNN trong nm 2013 x p x 70

20.400

20.600

20.800

21.000

21.200

21.400

Lin ngn hng Bn ra, VCB

32

t n, cho th y nhu cu v vng cn cao b t ch p ngi mua phi b thm khong 10% so v i

gi th gi i. Theo WGC, nhu cu vng ca Vit Nam tng 20% trong nm 2013, trong

vng trang sc tng 4% ln 11,9 t n v vng u t tng 23% ln 80,3 t n.

H 23 G v , u /l ng

Ngun: Cng ty Vng bc qu i Gn (SJC, 2013)

C o

Ch s chng khon 2 sn tng im kh nh dng tin vo mnh tr c trin vng nhu cu c

phiu ca khi ngoi tng mnh trong nm 2014. Th trng ang hy vng th trng chng

khon s cn tng im mnh hn sau khi t l nm gi c phiu ca nh u t n c ngoi

c nng ln t i 0% vo gia nm 2014. Kt thc nm 2013, ch s VN-Index ca sn

HOSE t 507,78 im, tng x p x 23% so v i u nm. HNX-Index cht mc 65,19

im, tng 14% so v i u nm.

Theo thng k, cc nh u t n c ngoi trong nm 2013 bm n 7.667 t ng (365

triu D) vo th trng chng khon Vit Nam. Trong , h dnh gn 6.330 t VND

ti sn chng khon H Ch Minh (HO E) v 1.337 t ng trn sn giao d ch chng khon

H Ni (HNX). Mc mua rng ca nh u t ngoi phn nh trin vng tch c c ca th

trng trong bi cnh nn kinh t cn tng i yu.

28,0

30,0

32,0

34,0

36,0

38,0

40,0

42,0

44,0

46,0

48,0

Gi bn ra, SJC

Gi cao nh t, th gi i

33

H 24. Bi c o P H C M

Ngun: Cng ty Chng khon B DV (BSC, 2013)

Tng gi tr vn h a th trng hin t khong 964.000 t ng, tng ng 31% GDP v

tng 199.000 t ng so v i cui nm 2012.

B

Th trng b t ng sn trong nm 2013 ang cho th y nhng n l c t cu mnh t pha

ngi bn ang thu ht ngi mua tr li th trng, trong khi g i h tr tn dng khng c

tc ng ng k. T l h p th cn h tng ng k (qu /2013, H Ni tng 9%, TP.

HCM tng 12% so v i qu tr c, theo Savills) nh gi hp l, phng thc tr tin linh hot,

h tr tn dng t ngn hng, v uy tn ca ch u t. Tc bn hng v giao d ch mnh

(nhiu d n phn khc bnh dn c t l bn n 80% ti TP H Ch Minh) trong qu

IV/2013 cho th y tn hiu tt i v i th trng b t ng sn. Ngoi ra, lng vn D ng

k vo lnh v c b t ng sn nm 2013 ln t i 951 triu USD t 20 d n u t m i cho

th y tim nng ca th trng ny vn cn di do.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

u

Khi lng im ng ca

34

CHNH CH KINH V M

Trong Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2013, Nguyn c Thnh v cng s (2014)

nhn nh nm 2012 l mt nm khng thnh cng v th c thi nhng tng chnh sch

c ra t nhng nm tr c v cn y nhanh tin th c thi cc chnh sch ti c c u

nn kinh t trong nm 2013. Tuy nhin cho n cui nm, nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch

vn cha tm c cch thc kh d g b nhng rng buc ang km hm tng trng

kinh t. Duy tr mi trng v m n nh l hp l khi phc nim tin ca ngi tiu

dng v cng ng doanh nghip, song iu l cha khi vn thiu cc bin php th c

s x l cc v n nn tng. Mi trng kinh doanh k m thn thin v khng ci thin s

cn hn ch u t, k o di tr tr v gy cn tr n qu trnh ti c u trc, x l n x u v

thay i m hnh tng trng. Phn tip theo ca chng s phn tch khng gian chnh sch,

ni dung chnh sch v m c trin khai trong nm 2013 v cc kt qu t c.

V khng gian chnh sch nm 2013: tha k nhng kh khn li t cc nm tr c, 2013

l mt nm cc nh iu hnh phi xoay x trong khng gian chnh sch cht chi t

c cc mc tiu do ng v Quc hi t ra. Thm ht ngn sch l n v ngun thu suy

gim nhanh ch ng hn ch nhng chnh sch quyt lit hn t pha ti kho, v d nh

min gim thu su hn. Tnh th cng khng cho ph p trin khai kch cu bng u t

cng do chc chn phi thng qua vay n m bi hc v s thiu hiu qu kinh t ca u t

cng cn nguyn m i v kh nng lm chm tin ti c c u u t cng l c c s. Cc

DN cha tm c h ng i m i v u ra cho sn phm cho nn nhu cu tn dng th p,

khin cho cc bin php gim li su t t c hiu qu i v i khu v c sn xu t. m nh v

lm pht cao trong qu kh gi cho li su t khng gim su d trng thi d tha vn

trong h thng ang bo mn sc mnh ti chnh ca cc ngn hng. Trong bi cnh , cc

chnh sch kinh t h ng t i duy tr mi trng v m bnh n, ch i tn hiu phc hi ca

cc thnh phn kinh t bi qu trnh t thanh lc v o thi. Tin ti c c u c cm

nhn r rt hn nm 2012 song vn cn chm hn k vng.

V ni dung chnh sch 2013 v cc kt qu t c:

gh quyt s 01/ Q-CP ngy 07/01/2013 ca Chnh ph xc nh ba mc tiu chnh l tng

cng n nh kinh t v m, lm pht th p hn, tng trng cao hn nm 2012, c th c

hin nh tp trung tho g kh khn, thc y pht trin sn xu t kinh doanh. Ngh quyt

s 01 phn nh nhn thc ng h ng ngay t u nm ca Chnh ph v c dy ng l c

35

kinh t sau khi bnh n v m t c. Cc mc tiu chiu su l y mnh th c hin 3

t ph chin lc [y mnh ci cch th ch, nng cao ch t lng ngun nhn l c, v tp

trung ngun l c xy d ng h thng kt c u h tng8] gn v i ti c c u nn kinh t, chuyn

i m hnh tng trng. i v i u t cng l r sot, hon thin php lut, c ch php

lut, xy d ng tiu ch nh gi hiu qu u t nh n c. i v i h thng cc t chc tn

dng l trin khai n ti c c u h thng cc TCTD; r sot, nh gi, phn loi cc

TCTD, nh t l cc t chc yu k m, tp trung x l n x u. i v i DNNN l y mnh c

phn ho, thoi vn nh n c, trin khai n ti c c u DNNN. au , ni tip gh quyt

13 c trin khai t na cui nm 2012, Chnh ph ban hnh gh quyt s 02/ Q-CP ngy

07/01/2013 v cc gii php tho g kh khn cho sn xu t- kinh doanh, h tr th trng,

gii quyt n x u trong nm 2013. Ni dung ca cc bin php ti kho cho th y Chnh ph

quyt tm h tr doanh nghip trong nm 2013, c th l gia hn thi hn np thu thu

nhp doanh nghip (TNDN), thu gi tr gia tng (GTGT) v thi hn np tin s dng t;

gim t l thu i v i mt s khon thu N NN v hon li tin thu bo v mi trng

np, nhng nu so snh v i 2012 th quy m nh hn.

8 Trong ngoc l ch thch ca nh m nghin cu

Hp 3. C c tr thu m 2013

Bng 1. H3. Min gim thu v u N NN c o cc m 2013

K o mc G ( )

Gia hn

Thu TNDN 4.660

Thu GTGT 4.666

Tin s dng t 2.167,6

Gim

Tin thu t 2.717,4

14.211

Ngun: BTC

o snh v i kt qu chnh sch min, gim v gia hn np thu v N NN trong nm 2012

(Nguyn c Thnh v cng s , 2014) th trong nm 2013 khng min thu mt s khon thu

TNDN, thu nhp c nhn (TNCN), v thu mn bi. C th p l c thm ht ngn sch l n

buc thay th vic min gim thu (s min gim trong nm 2012 l 17 8 t ng thu TNCN v

80,7 t ng thu TNDN) v bng bin php gia hn thu. Lng thu m DN, c nhn vay

mn t ngn sch nh n c trong nm 2013 qua hnh thc c gia hn thu t x p x 11.500

t ng, tng ng 81% tng lng thu c h tr, so v i 70% ca nm 2012.

36

Nhng kt qu t c t n l c duy tr n nh v m trong nm 2013 l ng ghi nhn.

Tuy s phc hi kinh t m i khi pht, mong manh v khng bt ngun t gc r vng

chc9, nn kinh t dng nh trnh c nhng k ch bn ti t nh t (tng trng tip tc

gim su v lm pht cao quay tr li), nim tin c ci thin. D vy, nhng lo ngi v

tng cu yu t v s suy yu ng l c sn xu t ca doanh nghip ni a khi nn kinh t hi

nhp ngy cng su v i th gi i dng nh ph b ng ln nhng thnh qu mong manh t

c. Ngoi ra, thm ht ngn sch l n tip tc d y ln ch trch v chi tiu thng xuyn

qu l n v n cng tng nhanh vt ngoi tm kim sot.

ng sau nhng ch tiu tch c c l nhiu v n gy lo lng. gim ca lm pht, c

dn dt bi tc tng chm ca tng cu, l n t nhng tc ng t vic iu chnh gi

d ch v cng. Gnh nng v gi c nh i phn no do lm pht th p cha th gii ta tm l

bi quan vn ng tr trong tm tr ngi tiu dng m tip tc c th trong hnh vi tit kim.

Tng trng kinh t nhnh hn so v i nm 2012 nhng khng ng u: tc tng trng

chnh lch ngy cng l n gia lnh v c d ch v v ch bin ch to so v i nng nghip v

khai khong, gia khu v c DN c vn TNN v khu v c trong n c. Nng l c sn xu t v

xu t khu ca nn kinh t hin nghing v pha khu v c DN c vn TNN. xu t hin ca

hng vn doanh nghip m i v quay tr li hot ng cha thay th c s lng l n hn

gii th v dng hot ng, khin th t nghip gia tng v khu v c phi chnh thc m rng.

Nhiu DN trong n c ui sc dn d i sc p cnh tranh ngy cng l n, m t th phn v

li mt khong trng rng ri cho cc DN n c ngoi m rng, sn phm t bn ngoi xm

l n ngy cng su, trong c sn xu t ln tiu dng. Do thiu vng cc mi lin kt chiu dc

v m nht trong mng sn xu t ng Nam , d Vit Nam hi nhp v m ca nhanh

ch ng theo cc hip c thng mi nhng a s cc DN trong n c vn cn lc lng v b

ng.

i v i cc mc tiu chiu su, 2013 m i ch l mt nm chy cho cc nm tip theo, khi

mt s v n nn tng c t ln bn ngh s . Hin php 2013 c thng qua, nh

d u b c d ch chuyn ng k t mt o lut gc trong h thng php lut ca quc gia

sang hi h ng ca mt bn kh c x hi. Hin php m i khng c nhiu im ci cch

ni bt v chnh quyn a phng ngoi tr ti thit lp m hnh hnh chnh kinh t c bit

Vn n, Ph Quc, Lt. Cha c nhiu nhng thay i mang tnh t ph v mt th

ch kinh t, vn gi nguyn nh h ng ca kinh t Nh n c v vai tr ca DNNN trong

9 Nhn nh ca Thng c NHNN Nguyn Vn Bnh v i Qu Tin t Quc t vo thng mi 2013.

37

nn kinh t th trng, iu tng c trng i s thay i trong t ci cch ln ny. Khng

k m quan trng, n tng th ti c c u kinh t cui cng cng c thng qua vo thng 2

d nhng ni dung cn khi qut v vn phi ch i cc ni dung c th c trin khai

trong thi gian sp t i m i nh gi c.

10

10

Bloomberg, Vietnam State Companies Still Dominate in Constitution ti http://www.bloomberg.com/ news/2013-11-26/vietnam-state-companies-still-dominate-in-constitution.html

Hp 4. Hi a i 2013

Trong Hin php sa i, ch kinh t c hin nh t iu 50 n iu 57 trong chng .

c k vng l c hi a Vit Nam tin gn hn n mt nn kinh t th trng, hon thin th ch kinh t-x hi v lm m i ng l c tng trng nhng Hin php sa i thiu nhng thay i quan trng. i din v i cc thch thc ti c c u kinh t v rng buc v mt th ch ln tng trng, cc nh lp php l a chn duy tr th ch kinh t ang vn hnh y trc trc. Mc d vn hin nh quyn t do kinh doanh, quyn t hu v s bnh ng tr c php lut, Hin php m i tip tc khng nh nn kinh t Vit Nam l nn kinh t th trng nh h ng x hi ch ngha, vai tr ch o ca kinh t nh n c, v t ai, ti nguyn thuc s hu ton dn. Khng c din gii ring v phm vi quyn hn ca Nh n c nhng ni hm l tng i r rng trong cc iu 53, 54, 55 ( t ai, ti nguyn, khong sn, ti sn do Nh n c u t, ngn sch nh n c, d tr quc gia, qu ti chnh nh n c,... do Nh n c i din ch s hu v thng nh t qun l).

Khi nim nh h ng x hi ch ngha vn cha c lm sng t trong Hin php sa i hay mt vn bn chnh thng no. Kin gii gn nh t xu t hin trong Ngh quyt 21-NQ/TW ca Ban Ch p hnh Trung ng ng Cng sn Vit Nam kh a X, trong cp v mt nn kinh t va tun theo quy lut chi phi ca kinh t th trng, va ch u s chi phi bi cc quy lut kinh t ca ch ngha x hi v cc yu t bo m tnh nh h ng x hi ch ngha, nhng ni dung ca v sau cho t i nay vn cn khuyt. Vic ch p nhn s khng r rng trong Hin php s ng cch din gii v trin khai Hin php theo kin ch quan ca ngi c thm quyn, pht sinh ri ro i khng quyn li v xung t li ch do c din gii nhiu cch khc nhau.

Kinh t nh n c l khu v c lm n thiu hiu qu nh t ca nn kinh t, hin ch u trch nhim i v i 70% s n x u ca nn kinh t v khong mt na s n cng. Ti khng nh vai tr ch o ca kinh t nh n c v phm vi can thip ca nh n c vo nn kinh t khin nhng ci cch cn thit tng cng minh bch, kh tn trch nhim ng tr c ri ro b tr hon, gy b t an cho cc nh u t. H c th cho rng ng thi sa i ny phn nh th c tm khng mun ci cch ca Vit Nam v l mt tn hiu sai lm. D c th khng gy suy gim u t vo Vit Nam trong ngn hn do sc h p dn t chi ph nhn cng th p cng tng l p trung lu ang l n dn, nhng hiu ng t Hin php m i c th s c cm nhn trong di hn, v d nh tc tng trng th p hn k vng7.

L mt trong nhng v n nan gii do nhng xung t quyn li v b t n x hi ny sinh ngy

mt gia tng, quy nh v quyn s hu t ai c gi nguyn trong Hin php sa i, trong

t ai thuc s hu ton dn, Nh n c l i din ch s hu v thng nh t qun l. y l quan

im c duy tr k t bn Hin php 1980. hu ton dn ng ngha v i ch cng hu,

38

111213

Thm ht ngn sch v n cng tr thnh mt tiu im trong nm 2013 khi Chnh ph phi

ngh Quc hi tng mc thm ht ln 5,3% GDP v n cng tin dn t i ngng nguy

him. Mt iu ng lo ngi l Chnh ph ang phi vay mn b p chi thng xuyn

v o n, ch khng cn ch dnh cho u t pht trin. Trong k hoch vay v tr n 2014,

Vit Nam phi vay thm 197 nghn t ng b p thm ht, 100 nghn t cho u t v

70,000 nghn t o n. Thm ch trong d ton ngn sch 2014 th tng thu ngn sch

thm ch khng b p chi thng xuyn14, cho th y gnh nng ngy mt l n ca b my

Nh n c khng cn c b p mt cch bn vng bi cc thnh phn kinh t. Chm

tr tinh gim bin ch v c phn ho cc DNNN s buc ngn sch phi vay mn gnh

nhng chi ph ny, nh hng t i th trng vn, tc ng x u t i nim tin ca ngi tiu

dng v doanh nghip.

Chnh sch tin t trong nm 2013 bm st mc tiu gim li su t, h tr hot ng sn

xu t kinh doanh, iu ho thanh khon, gi n nh t gi, gim st cht ch hot ng v s

lnh mnh ca h thng NHTM, thc gic x l n x u v ti c u trc TCTD yu k m. V li

su t, NHNN h cc biu li su t iu hnh theo gim ca lm pht v ng thi ca nh m

NHTM quc doanh. Cc NHTM cng c t do quyt nh li su t huy ng k hn trn

thng (thay v trn 12 thng nh nm 2012), tin thm mt b c trong qu trnh t do ho th

trng vn.

11

Nguyn a, S hu ton dn v t ai, mt gc nhn khc, VnEconomy, ti http://vneconomy.vn/20120927100448759P0C9920/so-huu-toan-dan-ve-dat-dai-mot-goc-nhin-khac.htm 12

L Phi, Nng: Kin ngh cng nhn s hu t nhn v t ai, Php lut Thnh ph H Ch Minh online, ti http://plo.vn/do-thi/da-nang-kien-nghi-cong-nhan-so-huu-tu-nhan-ve-dat-dai-89131.html 13

Nguyn a, dn 14

T.S Phm Th Anh tr li phng v n bo Tui Tr, N cng sp ti ln ranh , ti http://tuoitre.vn/Chinh-tri-Xa-hoi/602647/no-cong-sap-toi-lan-ranh-do.html.

mt di sn ca giai on kinh t k hoch tp trung m quyn s hu t nhn khng c

tha nhn. Tuy khng tha nhn t hu v t ai, qu trnh t hu ho t ai ang ngm din

ra, cn thm quyn ca Nh n c i v i t ai ch c th gi i hn trong quyn s dng v

quyn nh ot9. t ai n i chung khng phi l ti sn nn khng thuc s hu, cn quyn t

hu v ti sn gn lin v i mnh t c th c trao cho cc c nhn v t chc ang chim

hu. Hin php sa i ng n khi khng cn xc nh s hu ton dn lm nn tng

cho ch a s hu (Hin php 1992), do bn thn s hu ton dn khng c nn tng chc

chn10. Ch cng hu v t ai c nhc im l hn ch ng l c u t di hn v s dng

t ca ngi s dng, do c ri ro b ch m dt quyn s dng nhn danh li ch chung, cho d l

an ninh, quc phng, hay pht trin kinh t-x hi. Mt ch s hu t ai khng r rng, d b

nh ot bi quyt nh hnh chnh c th to c hi cho cc nh m li ch. Tip tc duy tr ch

cng hu v i t ai cho th y nhng ci cch th ch cha n ni n chn.

39

T gi danh ngha gia VN v D trong nm 2013 c kim sot tng i vng chc

nh phi hp nhiu cng c tin t, ch tng 1,3% trong c nm. Theo chng ti, NHNN

khng nn gi t gi cng nhc nh nhiu nm va qua do n ang tch t nhiu b t li v ri

ro. Th nh t, t gi ang mnh qu mc cn thit v hu qu l nng l c sn xu t v xu t

khu ca khu v c DN trong n c b suy yu. Lm trt gi VN t 2 n 3% mt nm s to

thm l c y cho khi DN xu t khu trong n c, h tr cc DN ny b p chi ph gy ra bi

lm pht tin ng. Th hai, chnh sch t gi ang cng c nim tin v s n nh ca tin

ng, mt mc tiu ng v i nhim v ca NHNN, song nim tin ny ang dn dt nhng

hnh vi carry trade trn th trng tin t, nh t l khi n kt hp v i chnh sch p ch li su t

tin gi bng ng D mc r t th p so v i VN. Kt qu l trng thi ngoi t ca a s

cc NHTM m ti a, chuyn sang VN hng li su t cao hn, v lng D ny

dn dn chuyn vo d tr ngoi hi ca NHNN. Nh vy, NHNN thay v mua ngoi t m

nn kinh t thu c qua trao i thng mi quc t th li mua ngoi t do cc NHTM bn

ra, thm ch vay bn cho NHNN. Trong trng hp c bin ng thay i trng thi ngoi

t, gi t gi th lng ngoi t d tr s nhanh ch ng bc hi, v tin ng tr nn d tn

thng v i din v i nguy c bin ng l n.

Cng ty qun l ti sn Vit Nam (VAMC) chnh thc c thnh lp vo thng 5/2013 v

bt tay ngay vo vic thu mua ti sn x u ca cc ngn hng. VAMC mua n x u ca ngn

hng v thanh ton bng tri phiu dc bit v c bn khng gip ci thin tnh hnh ti chnh

th c ca ngn hng gn n. y ch l bin php k thut gip ngn hng gim n x u trn

bo co ti chnh c lp theo chun m c k ton ca Vit Nam. Cng v i s tr hon th c

hin Thng t 02 v phn loi n x u, th cc NHTM c thm mt thi gian ch i

nhng hi phc t nn kinh t th c, trong c lnh v c b t ng sn, v cu tn dng. Bn

thn VAMC cng thiu thn ngun l c v cng c x l n x u do thnh lp vi vng, d

chm tr so v i thi im l tng nh t. VAMC va thiu vn mua bn n x u (cn

g p 4 ln s vn 500 t hin nay mua bn n) va khng bit lm g v i s n x u mua v

do thiu hn cc kha cnh php l v cc cng c mua bn n: phng thc u gi, pht

mi ti sn, c ch bn v t l s hu ca nh u t n c ngoi, bin php ti c u trc

khon n,... Nh vy, n x u vn cha c th c s x l v vn tu thuc vo kh nng thu

hi cng nh qun tr ca tng ngn hng.

im tr khc trong chnh sch tin t trong nm 2013 l Thng t 02/2013/TT-NHNN v

phn loi n b tr hon sang thng nm 2014 v cha r liu c c gia hn na hay

khng, tip tc k o di nhng nghi ng v con s n x u tht s ca h thng. V tuy gii

40

quyt c 8/9 ngn hng th h thng ti chnh li xu t thin thm 8 t chc tn dng yu

k m khc vo din cn x l. Qu trnh mua bn v st nhp cc t chc tn dng yu k m

v i t chc tn dng lnh mnh hn c nhiu im b t cp, cho t i nay vn cha c khun

kh chnh sch r rng v hot ng ny.

Th trng b t ng sn dng dng khi c nhiu ha hn kch thch th trng c cng b.

ng ch nh t l g i h tr tn dng tr gi 30 nghn t ng h ng t i nh cho ngi c

thu nhp th p theo tinh thn ca Ngh quyt 02. D c mc ch lm tan bng th trng b t

ng sn v gii cu n x u ang tch lu y, nhng ni dung chnh sch v kt qu trin

khai u cho th y y cha phi l g i h tr hiu qu. Th nh t, mc h tr khng l n i

v i ngi mua nh, cng v i quy nh v din tch v gi c mt sn th ngi thu nhp th p

chc hn s khng tin mua nh. Th hai l thiu ht ngun cung do th trng B cha

th khc phc nhng m o m gia cc phn khc trong ngn hn. Th ba l tin gii ngn

chm tr do v ng nhiu th tc, t xc nh thu nhp ca ngi mua nh, n cc iu kin,

tiu chun t ra bi cc ngn hng. Ba nguyn nhn trn khin cho s ngi iu kin

mua nh l r t t so v i ngi c nhu cu. Kt qu l d chnh sch c trin khai t gia

nm nhng n cui nm 2013 tin gii ngn ch t 5%, thm ch n cui qu /2014

m i t 10%, tc ng khng ng k so v i quy m hin ang r t l n ca th trng. Th c

t cho th y gi gim su ang kch hot li cc giao d ch, m si ng nh t l pha Nam ti

phn khc nh bnh dn, trong khi min Bc gi c c tnh cao hn. Cc chnh sch h

tr nu khng h ng t i ngi mua v tng thanh khon ca th trng th r t c th s km

hm qu trnh t iu chnh v gy nghi ng v kh nng thit k chnh sch ca Chnh ph.

K vng hin c t ln Quc hi v i nhu cu sa i Lut nh , Lut kinh doanh b t

ng sn cho ph p quyn s hu t ai, nh ca nh u t n c ngoi, Vit kiu... gii

bng th trng B v x l n x u trong h thng ngn hng.

K lu

Nn kinh t tri qua mt nm t o thi v thay m i, cng lc v i qu trnh gim n by ti

chnh, thoi vn u t a ngnh, tp trung vo lnh v c kinh doanh chnh. Cc im tc

nghn m u cht c tip cn mt cch hi ht, thiu chiu su; d phi tip tc trng cy

vo kh nng t x l ca cc thnh phn kinh t nhng ni dung ca chnh sch li thiu

nim tin vo th trng.

V i nhng d u hiu phc hi kinh t ang n mt cch vng chc th chnh sch kinh t cn

c s iu chnh linh hot v tng xng trong nm 2014. C th xem x t vic rt dn cc

41

chnh sch tin t khi d u hiu dng tin chuyn sang khu v c phi sn xu t ngy mt r rng.

S hi phc v kinh t khng c ngha l m hnh kinh t hin ti l ph hp khi cc chnh

sch m i dng ch n nh v m bng mi gi. Cc chng trnh ti c c u kinh t cn

tip tc th c hin theo l trnh khng b l c hi ci cch mt ln na.

42

l u tham kho

ADB (2013), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, Manila, Philippines: ADB.

ADB (2014), Monthly Bond Outstanding, truy cp ngy 03/03/2014 ti ADB Bonds

Online: http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/vietnam/data/bondmarket.php?code=Bonds_

Outstanding_Monthly

Arvis, J. (2014), Connecting to compete 2014: trade logistics in the global economy;

the logistics performance index and its indicators, Washington D.C.: World Bank.

BTC (2013), Cng thng tin in t B Ti chnh. truy cp 20/01/2014, ti

http://www.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/mof_vn/1351583/2126549?p_folder_id=2201709

&p_recurrent_news_id=115901805

BSC (2013), Ch s chng khon sn giao d ch TP H Ch Minh, truy cp ngy

03/02/2014 ti C phn Chng khon BIDV: http://www.bsc.com.vn/

nh Qun (2013), "B my cng chc tng ln theo tng nm," Thanh Nin Online,

truy cp ngy 13/12/2013, ti Thanh Nin Online: http://www.thanhnien.com.vn/pages/

20131120/bo-may-cong-chuc-tang-len-theo-tung-nam.aspx

HSBC-Markit (2013), HSBC Purchasing Managers Index, Hongkong: HSBC-

Markit.

IMF (2014), International Financial Statistics, truy cp ngy 03/02/2014 ti

International Monetary Fund: http://elibrary-data.imf.org/FindDataReports.aspx?d=33061

&e=169393

Miller, T., A. Kim, v K. Holmes (2014). 2014 Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage

Foundation.

Nguyn c Thnh, Ng Quc Thi, V Minh Long, v Hong Th Chinh Thon

(2014), Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam 2012, Chng 2 trong Bo co Thng nin Kinh t

Vit am 2013 Trn ng gp ghnh ti tng lai, H Ni: NXB i hc Quc gia, tr 57-

113.

Nguyn c Thnh, Vin cnh kinh t nm 2013 v hm chnh sch, Chng 7

trong Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2013: Trn ng gp ghnh ti tng lai, H

Ni: NXB i hc Quc gia, tr. 319-334.

NHNN (2013a), Bng li sut, truy cp ngy 27/12/2014 ti Ngn hng Nh n c Vit

Nam: http://www.sbv.gov.vn/portal/faces/vi/vim/vipages_cstt/laisuat/banglaisuat.

NHNN (2013b), Li sut th trng lin ngn hng, truy cp ngy 27/12/2014 ti Ngn

hng Nh n c Vit Nam: http://www.sbv.gov.vn/portal/faces/vi/vim/vipages_cstt/laisuat/

laisuatliennganhang

NHNN (2014), D n tn dng i vi nn kinh t v tc tng trng, truy cp ngy

27/03/2014 ti http://www.sbv.gov.vn/portal/faces/vi/vim/vipages_trangchu/tkttnh/

dntd?_adf.ctrl-state

43

Schwab, K. (2013), The Global Competitiveness Report 2013 - 2014, Geneva: World

Economic Forum.

StockPlus (2014), Research Report on Logistics, H Ni: StockPlus.

TCTK (2013a), S liu chuyn : Ch s gi tiu dng, truy cp ngy 04/01/2014 ti

Tng cc Thng k: http://www.gso.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=628.

TCTK (2013b), Thng tin thng k hng thng,truy cp ngy 04/01/2014 ti Tng cc

Thng k: http://www.gso.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=621.

TCTK (2013c), S liu chuyn Gi tr xut nhp khu, truy cp ngy 04/01/2014 ti

Tng cc Thng k: http://www.gso.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=629.

TCTK (2014), in gim Thng k Tm tt 2013, H Ni: NXB Thng k.

T chc Minh bch Quc t (2013), Corruption Perceptions Index, Berlin:

Transparency International.

VCB (2013), T gi ngoi t, truy cp ngy 05/01/2014 ti Ngn hng Ngoi thng

Vit Nam: https://www.vietcombank.com.vn/exchangerates/

WB (2013), Doing Business 2014: Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-

Size Enterprise, Washington, DC: World Bank Group.

WB (2013), State of Logistics Indonesia 2013, Jakarta: World Bank.

WB (2014), Kho vn hiu qu Cha kho Vit am nng cao nng lc cnh tranh.

Washinton, DC: World Bank, bn ting Vit ca Efficient Logistics A Key to Vietnams

Competitiveness. Directions in Development. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0103-7.

44

CC BI NGHIN CU KHC

NC-32: Tng quan kinh t th gii 2013, L Kim Sa, Nguyn Cm Nhung.

NC-31: Tng quan kinh t th gii 2012, L Kim Sa.

NC-30: Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam 2012, Nguyn c Thnh, Ng Quc Thi, V

Minh Long, Hong Th Chinh Thon.

NC-29: Nhng vn ni bt ca kinh t Trung Quc sau i hi XVIII, Phm S

Thnh.

NC-28: Khng hong n cng ti mt s nn kinh t trn th gii: Nguyn nhn,

din bin, hu qu, bin php khc phc v nhng hm chnh sch cho Vit

Nam, V Minh Long.

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