TTHEHE GGLOBALLOBAL TTERRORISMERRORISM DDATABASEATABASE (GTD)(GTD)AANNOUNCINGNNOUNCING THETHE RRELEASEELEASE OFOF NNEWEW GGLOBALLOBAL TTERRORISMERRORISM DDATAATA TTHROUGHHROUGH 20102010

JJUNEUNE 29, 2011 29, 2011

EERINRIN MMILLERILLER

GTD PGTD PROJECTROJECT MMANAGERANAGER

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

A CENTER OF EXCELLENCE SUPPORTED BY THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE

OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

INTRODUCTION:INTRODUCTION:The Global Terrorism DatabaseThe Global Terrorism Database

INTRODUCTION: INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS THE GTD?WHAT IS THE GTD?

The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) isThe Global Terrorism Database (GTD) isThe Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is an openan open--source database including source database including information on domestic andinformation on domestic andinformation on domestic and information on domestic and international terrorist events around the international terrorist events around the world since 1970 (currently updated world since 1970 (currently updated ( y p( y pthrough 2010). It contains data on through 2010). It contains data on where, when, and how over 98,000 where, when, and how over 98,000 t i t t dt i t t dterrorist events occurred.terrorist events occurred.

WWHATHAT ISIS THETHE GGLOBALLOBAL TTERRORISMERRORISM DDATABASEATABASE??

Origins of the GTDOrigins of the GTD–– “GTD1” 1970“GTD1” 1970--1997 (PGIS/START)1997 (PGIS/START)GTD1 1970GTD1 1970 1997 (PGIS/START)1997 (PGIS/START)–– “GTD2” 1998“GTD2” 1998--2007 (CETIS/START)2007 (CETIS/START)–– 20082008--present (ISVG/START)present (ISVG/START)20082008 present (ISVG/START)present (ISVG/START)

SourcesSourcesPinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)–– Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)

–– Newspapers/ NewswiresNewspapers/ NewswiresR di /TV T i tR di /TV T i t–– Radio/TV TranscriptsRadio/TV Transcripts

–– Terrorism ChronologiesTerrorism ChronologiesS D RS D R–– State Department ReportsState Department Reports

–– World Wide WebWorld Wide Web

PGISPGISPGISPGISDDATAATACCCCOLLECTIONOLLECTION

DDEFINITIONEFINITION OFOF TTERRORISMERRORISM

“Acts by non“Acts by non--state actors involving the state actors involving the yy gg

threatened or actual use of illegal force threatened or actual use of illegal force

or violence to attain a political, or violence to attain a political,

economic religious or social goaleconomic religious or social goaleconomic, religious or social goal economic, religious or social goal

through fear, coercion, or intimidation.”through fear, coercion, or intimidation.”gg

DDEFINITIONEFINITION OFOF TTERRORISMERRORISM ((CONTCONT.).)

Mandatory inclusion criteriaMandatory inclusion criteria::–– The incident must be intentional The incident must be intentional –– the result of a the result of a

i l l ti th t f t ti l l ti th t f t tconscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator.conscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator.–– The incident must entail some level of violence The incident must entail some level of violence

(includes property violence) or the threat of violence.(includes property violence) or the threat of violence.–– There must be subThere must be sub--national perpetratorsnational perpetratorsThere must be subThere must be sub national perpetratorsnational perpetrators

At least two of the following criteria must be met:At least two of the following criteria must be met:1)1) The act must be aimed at attaining a political economicThe act must be aimed at attaining a political economic1)1) The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic,

religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the exclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterionexclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterion

2)2) There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience (oror convey some other message to a larger audience (oror convey some other message to a larger audience (or or convey some other message to a larger audience (or audiences) than the immediate victims. audiences) than the immediate victims.

3)3) The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare activities, i.e. the act must be outside the parameters activities, i.e. the act must be outside the parameters

itt d b i t ti l h it i l ( ti l l thitt d b i t ti l h it i l ( ti l l thpermitted by international humanitarian law (particularly the permitted by international humanitarian law (particularly the admonition against deliberately targeting civilians or nonadmonition against deliberately targeting civilians or non--combatants).combatants).

TTYPESYPES OFOF IINFORMATIONNFORMATION IINCLUDEDNCLUDEDTTYPESYPES OFOF IINFORMATIONNFORMATION IINCLUDEDNCLUDED

Type of terrorist activityType of terrorist activity Is the U.S. the target?Is the U.S. the target?Type of terrorist activityType of terrorist activity–– AssassinationAssassination–– Armed AssaultArmed Assault

B bi /E l iB bi /E l i

Is the U.S. the target?Is the U.S. the target? Terrorist groups involved Terrorist groups involved Weapons usedWeapons used

–– Bombing/ExplosionBombing/Explosion–– Facility/Infrastructure AttackFacility/Infrastructure Attack–– HijackingHijacking

pp Target characteristicsTarget characteristics Incident outcomeIncident outcome

–– Hostage Taking (Barricade)Hostage Taking (Barricade)–– Hostage Taking (Kidnapping)Hostage Taking (Kidnapping)–– Unarmed AssaultUnarmed Assault

Casualties and injuriesCasualties and injuries Property damageProperty damageUnarmed AssaultUnarmed Assault

Incident dateIncident date City/province/country/regionCity/province/country/regiony/p / y/ gy/p / y/ g

METHODOLOGICALMETHODOLOGICALImproving the Global Terrorism DatabaseImproving the Global Terrorism Database

METHODOLOGICAL METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGESCHALLENGES

IIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: VGTD: VALIDITYALIDITY

IIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: CGTD: CODINGODING CCONSISTENCYONSISTENCYIIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: CGTD: CODINGODING CCONSISTENCYONSISTENCY

Example: Perpetrator Group NamesExample: Perpetrator Group Names

Shining Path (SL)Shining Path (SL) SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso Shining Path (SL)Shining Path (SL)

(S.L.) Shining Path(S.L.) Shining Path Sundero LuminosoSundero Luminoso SenderoSendero Shining Path (SL)Shining Path (SL)

Shining Path Org.Shining Path Org. Bright Path(Bright Path(SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso)) Communist Party of PeruCommunist Party of Peru

S dS d L iL i

Sendero Rojo (Red Path)Sendero Rojo (Red Path) SenderoSendero LuminosaLuminosa--

Columbian Revolutionary Columbian Revolutionary Armed Armed FrcFrc

SanderoSandero LuminosoLuminoso Group of Extremists (probably Group of Extremists (probably

Shining Path)Shining Path) Shining PathShining Path

SLSL SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso Luminous PathLuminous Path MoaistMoaist Shining GroupShining Group

Shining Path guerrillasShining Path guerrillas Maoist Shining PathMaoist Shining Path seuderoseudero luminosoluminoso MaaistMaaist Shining PathShining Path

MoaistMoaist Shining GroupShining Group Supporters Jailed Peruvian Supporters Jailed Peruvian

SenderoSendero LuminosLuminos LeaderLeader SCSC

k b t (Shi ik b t (Shi i MaaistMaaist Shining PathShining Path unknown saboteurs (Shining unknown saboteurs (Shining Path suspected)Path suspected)

IIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: GTD: SS DD CCSSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION

D th f t d t b ifi d fD th f t d t b ifi d f Depth of coverage tends to be sacrificed for Depth of coverage tends to be sacrificed for breadth.breadth.

Goal: Include Goal: Include allall incidents of terrorism in the incidents of terrorism in the GTD.GTD.

Solution: Compare the GTD to many different Solution: Compare the GTD to many different sources of terrorism event data to check forsources of terrorism event data to check forsources of terrorism event data to check for sources of terrorism event data to check for missing cases and add them to the database.missing cases and add them to the database.

SSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION: U: UNITEDNITED SSTATESTATES

450

500

Terrorist Attacks in the United States, 1970-2010

350

400

450

S l l

200

250

300

Freq

uen

cy

Supplemental

Original Data

100

150

200F

0

50

YearSource: Global Terrorism Database

SSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION: S: SRIRI LLANKAANKA

600

Terrorist Attacks in Sri Lanka, 1970-2010

400

500 Supplemental

Original Data

300

Freq

uen

cy

100

200

0

YearSource: Global Terrorism Database

SSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION: A: ALGERIALGERIA

350

400

Terrorist Attacks in Algeria, 1970-2010

300

350

Supplemental

Original Data

200

250

Freq

uen

cy

Original Data

100

150

F

0

50

YearSource: Global Terrorism Database

EEXPANDINGXPANDING THETHE GTD: NGTD: NEWEW VVARIABLESARIABLESEEXPANDINGXPANDING THETHE GTD: NGTD: NEWEW VVARIABLESARIABLES

Suicide AttacksSuicide Attacks

IED InvolvementIED Involvement

International/Domestic IndicatorInternational/Domestic Indicator

Location/Location/GeocodingGeocoding

PATTERNS OF TERRORISMPATTERNS OF TERRORISMGlobal Terrorism DatabaseGlobal Terrorism Database

PATTERNS OF TERRORISM PATTERNS OF TERRORISM 19701970--20102010

6000

TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010N=98,112

5000

Total Attacks

Fatal Attacks

4000

y

Fatalities >10

3000

Freq

uen

cy

2000

0

1000

0

YearSource: Global Terrorism Database

LOCATIONLOCATIONPatterns of TerrorismPatterns of Terrorism

LOCATIONLOCATION

TWENTY TOP RANKING COUNTRIES: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATALITIES, 1970-2010

Most Frequently Attacked Most FatalitiesMost Frequently Attacked Most FatalitiesRank Country Attack Count Country Fatality Count1 Colombia 7,180 Iraq 25,0262 Iraq 6,475 India 15,8663 I di 6 114 S i L k 15 4813 India 6,114 Sri Lanka 15,4814 Peru 6,045 Colombia 13,2715 El Salvador 5,327 Peru 12,8506 Pakistan 4,436 El Salvador 12,4967 Northern Ireland 3,885 Nicaragua 11,3248 Spain 3,205 Pakistan 10,1079 Philippines 3,191 Algeria 10,04710 Sri Lanka 2,924 Philippines 6,88111 Turkey 2,745 Afghanistan 6,27312 Afghanistan 2,585 Guatemala 5,15013 Algeria 2,357 Turkey 4,72514 United States 2,347 Burundi 4,11415 Chile 2,305 Russia 3,50716 Guatemala 2,035 United States 3,46917 Lebanon 2,016 Lebanon 3,27218 Nicaragua 1,986 Rwanda 3,21018 Nicaragua 1,986 Rwanda 3,21019 South Africa 1,921 Angola 2,85320 Thailand 1,697 Northern Ireland 2,849

Source: Global Terrorism Database

AATTACKSTTACKS & F& FATALITIESATALITIES BYBY RREGIONEGION, 1970, 1970--20102010

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

ASIA

SOUTH AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

EUROPE

INCIDENTS

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FATALITIES

AUSTRALASIA & OCEANIA

RUSSIA & THE NEWLY INDEPENDENTSTATES (NIS)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

AUSTRALASIA & OCEANIA

Source: Global Terrorism Database

WEAPONSWEAPONSPatterns of TerrorismPatterns of Terrorism

WEAPONSWEAPONS

WEAPONS USED IN TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010 (N=98,112)( , )

IncendiaryMelee2 14% Other

Unknown8.47%

Incendiary7.58%

2.14% Other0.49%

Explosives/ Bombs/

Dynamitey45.85%Firearms

35.48%

Source: Global Terrorism Database

160

“TACTICALLY COMPLEX” ATTACKS BY TERRORISTS, 1970-2010

140

100

120

Att

acks

60

80

Nu

mbe

r of

A

20

40

N

0

20

YearSource: Global Terrorism Database

LETHALITYLETHALITYPatterns of TerrorismPatterns of Terrorism

LETHALITYLETHALITY

70

TOTAL FATALITIES PER TERRORIST ATTACK, 1970-2010 (N=98,112*)70

57.2360 57.2360

40

50

nt 1970-2004

48.05

40

50

nt

30Per

cen

23.40

30Per

cen 2005-2010

19.08

12.51

6 5210

20 19.08

12.51

6 52

16.58

6 9710

20

6.523.26

1.40

0

10

0 1 2 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 25 over 25

6.523.26

1.40

6.973.47

1.53

0

10

0 1 2 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 25 over 25

Number of Fatalities

*Data on fatalities were missing in 7.0% of cases Source: Global Terrorism Database

Number of Fatalities

PERPETRATORSPERPETRATORSPatterns of TerrorismPatterns of Terrorism

PERPETRATORSPERPETRATORS

TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010Rank Perpetrator Attack Count Fatalitiesp1 Shining Path (SL) 4518 116662 Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) 3357 85083 Irish Republican Army (IRA) 2673 18074 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 2005 8214 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 2005 8215 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 1907 50046 Taliban 1799 47407 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 1600 108418 National Liberation Army of Colombia (ELN) 1308 17619 New People's Army (NPA) 1283 338510 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 1191 357111 Communist Party of India ‐Maoist (CPI‐M) 1040 1554y ( )12 Nicaraguan Democratic Force (FDN) 899 726813 Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (FPMR) 830 9314 African National Congress (South Africa) 606 62415 Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC) 572 1315 Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC) 572 1316 M‐19 (Movement of April 19) 564 140217 Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) 561 56018 People's Liberation Front (JVP) 434 89119 National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) 421 256220 Hizballah 366 1189

Source: Global Terrorism Database

TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 2005-2010Rank Perpetrator Attack Count Fatalities1 Taliban 1669 44192 Communist Party of India ‐Maoist (CPI‐M) 1040 15543 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 468 15674 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 410 4314 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 410 4315 New People's Army (NPA) 237 1846 Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) 174 18397 Al‐Qa`ida in Iraq 159 17898 Al‐Shabaab 156 6149 United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) 147 30310 Tehrik‐i‐Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 130 113311 Al‐Qa`ida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) 127 510Q g ( Q )12 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 119 15113 Salafist Group for Preaching and Fighting (GSPC) 110 25614 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 105 12015 P l ti i I l i Jih d (PIJ) 102 6715 Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) 102 6716 Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) 95 86417 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 94 2118 Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) 86 10919 Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) 82 10320 Al‐Aqsa Martyrs Brigade 79 57

Source: Global Terrorism Database

80

LONGEVITY OF TERRORIST GROUPS 1970-2010

60

70

50

60

nt

30

40

Per

cen

20

0

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

Life Span of Group (In Years)Source: Global Terrorism Database

IINVESTIGATINGNVESTIGATING PPATTERNSATTERNS OFOF

Global Terrorism Database: ResearchGlobal Terrorism Database: Research

IINVESTIGATINGNVESTIGATING PPATTERNSATTERNS OFOFTTERRORISMERRORISM ANDAND THETHE IIMPACTMPACT OFOFCCCCOUNTERTERRORISMOUNTERTERRORISM

Effects of Counterterrorism StrategiesEffects of Counterterrorism StrategiesTerrorist Attacks by Irish Republicans

250

150

200

uenc

y

50

100Freq

u

0

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

O ti M tFalls Curfew

Internment

Operation Motorman

Criminalization

Loughgall IncidentGibraltar Incident

Source: LaFree, Dugan and Korte (2009)

Internment

CLASSIFICATION OFTRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF CLASSIFICATION OF

COUNTRY TRAJECTORIES

“BIRTH” TRAJECTORIES OFTERRORIST PERPETRATORS

TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF

53 ANTI‐U.S. GROUPS

PATTERNS OF DECLINE AMONG

T OTERRORIST PERPETRATORS TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS

Website and GTD ToolsWebsite and GTD ToolsGlobal Terrorism Database OutreachGlobal Terrorism Database Outreach

Website and GTD ToolsWebsite and GTD Tools

www.start.umd.edu/gtdwww.start.umd.edu/gtd

GTD DGTD DATAATA RRIVERSIVERS

AADVANCEDDVANCED SSEARCHEARCH

SSEARCHEARCH RRESULTSESULTS ANDAND GGRAPHINGRAPHING

www.start.umd.edu/gtdwww.start.umd.edu/gtd

www.start.umd.edu/gtdwww.start.umd.edu/gtdQuestions? Comments?Questions? Comments?

www.start.umd.edu/gtdwww.start.umd.edu/gtdgtd@start.umd.edugtd@start.umd.edu