International International TerrorismTerrorism

Andreas WimmerAndreas Wimmer

Fundamental QuestionsFundamental Questions1.1. Is Terrorism warfare?Is Terrorism warfare?

2.2. Is terror a legitimate tool?/ What is international Is terror a legitimate tool?/ What is international terrorism?terrorism?

3.3. Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold war area?war area?

4.4. Is 9/11 significant? Is 9/11 significant?

5.5. Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat?

6.6. What counter measures we can take against the What counter measures we can take against the threat?threat?

Is Terrorism a legitimate tool?Is Terrorism a legitimate tool?

Is Terrorism warfare?Is Terrorism warfare? Colin Gray thesis Colin Gray thesis “All Terrorist are Soldiers.” “All Terrorist are Soldiers.”

Another Bloody Century, Future WarfareAnother Bloody Century, Future Warfare Legitimating terrorism for the sake of war! Legitimating terrorism for the sake of war!

Terror is a form of warfare in both Terror is a form of warfare in both conventional and insurgency wars. conventional and insurgency wars.

Terrorism against states or individuals not in Terrorism against states or individuals not in a state of insecurity or declaring martial law a state of insecurity or declaring martial law remains a crime!remains a crime!

Is Terrorism warfare? Is Terrorism warfare? Depends on the perspectiveDepends on the perspective

Is terror a legitimate tool?Is terror a legitimate tool? Philosophical explanation (definition on Philosophical explanation (definition on

what is right? Or Who is right?)what is right? Or Who is right?) East Timor, War of Independence (1775–1783), French East Timor, War of Independence (1775–1783), French

Revolution, Israel (1948) Revolution, Israel (1948)

Pragmatic explanationPragmatic explanation Jurisprudence (resistance movements)Jurisprudence (resistance movements) International Law (Geneva Convention, U.N Charter)International Law (Geneva Convention, U.N Charter)

Adversary viewAdversary view (means are justified) (means are justified) Revolutionary warfare (Banastre Tarleton)Revolutionary warfare (Banastre Tarleton) War of Independence (Algerian Civil War 1990)War of Independence (Algerian Civil War 1990) Struggle, freedom fights or idiosyncratic millenarian movementsStruggle, freedom fights or idiosyncratic millenarian movements Mahdi movement (Mahdi movement (Muhammad Ahmad ibn as Sayyid Abd Allah Muhammad Ahmad ibn as Sayyid Abd Allah

1845 - 1885 )1845 - 1885 )

Jurisprudence on terrorismJurisprudence on terrorism1.1. Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons, Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons,

including Diplomatic Agents, New York, 14 December 1973 including Diplomatic Agents, New York, 14 December 1973 2.2. International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, New York, 17 December 1979 International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, New York, 17 December 1979 3.3. International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings, New York, 15 December 1997International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings, New York, 15 December 19974.4. International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, New York, 9 December International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, New York, 9 December

199919995.5. Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts Committed on Board Aircraft, Tokyo, 14 September Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts Committed on Board Aircraft, Tokyo, 14 September

1963 (*)1963 (*)6.6. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft, The Hague, 16 December 1970 (*) Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft, The Hague, 16 December 1970 (*) 7.7. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 23 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 23

September 1971 (*) September 1971 (*) 8.8. Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, Vienna, 3 March 1980 (**)Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, Vienna, 3 March 1980 (**)9.9. Protocol on the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving International Civil Protocol on the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving International Civil

Aviation, supplementary to the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety Aviation, supplementary to the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 24 February 1988 (*) of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 24 February 1988 (*)

10.10. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, Rome, Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, Rome, 10 March 1988 10 March 1988

11.11. Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms located on the Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms located on the Continental Shelf, Rome, 10 March 1988 Continental Shelf, Rome, 10 March 1988

12.12. Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection, Montreal, 1 March Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection, Montreal, 1 March 1991 (*) 1991 (*)

13.13. 1949 Geneva Convention 1949 Geneva Convention    

Is terror a legitimate tool?Is terror a legitimate tool? ICRC, Geneva Convention, UN Charter - ICRC, Geneva Convention, UN Charter - a clear NO! a clear NO!

Criminal Code – Criminal Code – a clear NO!a clear NO!

Political perspective – Political perspective – well fuzzy, as and if opportune (for well fuzzy, as and if opportune (for state) for adversary – always YES!state) for adversary – always YES!

Colonists (US War of Independence) - Colonists (US War of Independence) - YES!YES! Beaten on the battlefield, Francis Marion fixed British forces away from Beaten on the battlefield, Francis Marion fixed British forces away from

the main continental contingents. Actions by the British justified Colonists the main continental contingents. Actions by the British justified Colonists retaliatory actionsretaliatory actions

Is terror a legitimate tool?Is terror a legitimate tool? International humanitarian law prohibits without exception all International humanitarian law prohibits without exception all

acts of terror during international or non-international armed acts of terror during international or non-international armed conflicts.conflicts.

This body of law also requires States to prevent and punish breaches. Acts of terrorism This body of law also requires States to prevent and punish breaches. Acts of terrorism may constitute war crimes, subject to international jurisdiction, and the International may constitute war crimes, subject to international jurisdiction, and the International Criminal Court may be competent to hear such cases.Criminal Court may be competent to hear such cases.

At the same time, the fight against terrorism and the prosecution of persons suspected of At the same time, the fight against terrorism and the prosecution of persons suspected of terrorism are subject to international humanitarian law if they take place during armed conflict. terrorism are subject to international humanitarian law if they take place during armed conflict. That body of law does not constitute an obstacle to the fight against terrorism. Indeed, That body of law does not constitute an obstacle to the fight against terrorism. Indeed, suspected terrorists can be prosecuted for acts of terrorism.suspected terrorists can be prosecuted for acts of terrorism. But even the members of But even the members of armed forces or “illegal fighters” suspected of acts of terrorism are armed forces or “illegal fighters” suspected of acts of terrorism are protected by the Geneva Conventions and are entitled to judicial protected by the Geneva Conventions and are entitled to judicial guarantees if put on trial.guarantees if put on trial.

http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdfhttp://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdf http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3Bhttp://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3B

International terrorismInternational terrorism

Is 9/11 significant? - PerspectivesIs 9/11 significant? - Perspectives PoliticalPolitical

Emotional resonance Emotional resonance ““Starting now, life in America is about emergencies rather than ease”Starting now, life in America is about emergencies rather than ease”

Economical, ConstitutionalEconomical, Constitutional Patriot Act, curbing of civil libertiesPatriot Act, curbing of civil liberties Economical switch to the Euro threatens US economy; Iraq’s Economical switch to the Euro threatens US economy; Iraq’s

invasion has economical justificationsinvasion has economical justifications Ideological/ Religious Ideological/ Religious

Muslim perspective. Surah 9:11 does not appear relevant, but Muslim perspective. Surah 9:11 does not appear relevant, but Surah 9:111 is highly relevant because it firmly promises Surah 9:111 is highly relevant because it firmly promises heavenly gardens to those who slay and are slain in Allah's way. heavenly gardens to those who slay and are slain in Allah's way.

Some historians noted that September 11, 1683 the Battle of Some historians noted that September 11, 1683 the Battle of Vienna, was the turning point in a 250-year struggle between the Vienna, was the turning point in a 250-year struggle between the forces of the Christian West and the Islamic Ottoman Empire. forces of the Christian West and the Islamic Ottoman Empire.

http://www.progressive.org/node/1777

James Ashcroft, Virgin Books, Making A Killing, page 215

Is 9/11 significant? - PerspectivesIs 9/11 significant? - Perspectives

StrategicStrategic Hegemonic change of the United StatesHegemonic change of the United States Regional changes initiatedRegional changes initiated

SocialSocial Impact on the “American soul”Impact on the “American soul” Attack against the “homeland”; first since Attack against the “homeland”; first since

19411941

U.S perspectiveU.S perspective Title 22, US Code, Section 2656f(d)Title 22, US Code, Section 2656f(d) (used by the Department of State and the (used by the Department of State and the

CIA) CIA) TerrorismTerrorism is premeditated is premeditated, , politically motivated violencepolitically motivated violence perpetrated perpetrated

against non-combatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually against non-combatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.intended to influence an audience.

International terrorismInternational terrorism is terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than is terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than one country.one country.

AA Terrorist group Terrorist group is any group practicing, or which has significant subgroups which is any group practicing, or which has significant subgroups which practice, international terrorism. practice, international terrorism.

Federal Bureau of InvestigationFederal Bureau of Investigation International terrorismInternational terrorism involves violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a involves violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a

violation of the criminal laws of the United States or any state, or that would be a criminal violation of the criminal laws of the United States or any state, or that would be a criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or any state. These acts violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or any state. These acts appear to be intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population, influence the policy of appear to be intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population, influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion, or affect the conduct of a government by a government by intimidation or coercion, or affect the conduct of a government by assassination or kidnapping. International terrorist acts occur outside the United States or assassination or kidnapping. International terrorist acts occur outside the United States or transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the persons they appear intended to coerce or intimidate, or the locale in which the persons they appear intended to coerce or intimidate, or the locale in which the perpetrators operate or seek asylum.perpetrators operate or seek asylum.

U.S perspectiveU.S perspective U.S. State Department’s official list of states supporting U.S. State Department’s official list of states supporting

terrorism terrorism Political mandated by U.S Congress Political mandated by U.S Congress

““to take the moral high ground against terrorism with little to take the moral high ground against terrorism with little political cost.”political cost.”

““With no objective criteria for deciding when countries should be With no objective criteria for deciding when countries should be placed on or removed from the list, inclusion is a purely political placed on or removed from the list, inclusion is a purely political decision.”decision.”

Syria Syria State Department testified in 1995 that it had no evidence of Syrian State Department testified in 1995 that it had no evidence of Syrian

involvement in terrorism since 1984!involvement in terrorism since 1984! SerbiaSerbia

Not on the State Department list despite its support of Bosnian Not on the State Department list despite its support of Bosnian Serbs committing mass atrocities and terrorist acts in Bosnia. Serbs committing mass atrocities and terrorist acts in Bosnia.

http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htm

What is international terrorism?What is international terrorism? Religious terrorism Religious terrorism

Tends to be more violent then secular terrorismTends to be more violent then secular terrorism ““Amateur” terrorism Amateur” terrorism

Lethal, self inspired, indirect sponsored Lethal, self inspired, indirect sponsored Hamas vs. PLOHamas vs. PLO Trade Center bombing 1983 (400$, 6 killed, more than 1,000 Trade Center bombing 1983 (400$, 6 killed, more than 1,000

injured, 180ft. Six storey deep crater, 550$ million damageinjured, 180ft. Six storey deep crater, 550$ million damage ““Professional” terrorismProfessional” terrorism

Core cadre provide the foundation for amateursCore cadre provide the foundation for amateurs OutomeOutome

Accelerate in lethality since 1990Accelerate in lethality since 1990

http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/hob01/

What is international terrorism?What is international terrorism? Agro-terrorism Agro-terrorism

A subset of bioterrorism, agro-terrorism would involve the use of a biological agent A subset of bioterrorism, agro-terrorism would involve the use of a biological agent against the agricultural industry and/or food supply. against the agricultural industry and/or food supply.

Cyber-terrorismCyber-terrorism A terrorist attack aimed at crippling the country's networking infrastructure through A terrorist attack aimed at crippling the country's networking infrastructure through

the use of viruses etc, which also results in violence against persons the use of viruses etc, which also results in violence against persons or property.or property.

Narco-terrorismNarco-terrorism This term does not refer to a method of attack, but rather to a description of the link This term does not refer to a method of attack, but rather to a description of the link

between narcotics trafficking and terrorism – it involves being a direct or indirect between narcotics trafficking and terrorism – it involves being a direct or indirect participant in drug trafficking and using the profits to advance or finance terrorist participant in drug trafficking and using the profits to advance or finance terrorist activities.activities.

WMD terrorism WMD terrorism A terrorist attack utilizing a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), i.e. the use of a A terrorist attack utilizing a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), i.e. the use of a

chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological weapon” chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological weapon”

http://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htmhttp://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htm http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.htmlhttp://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.html

ConclusionsConclusions No conclusive definition but commonly No conclusive definition but commonly

accepted legal, moral definitions of what accepted legal, moral definitions of what terrorism is generally perceivedterrorism is generally perceived

Interpretation subject to change and often Interpretation subject to change and often defined by the type of response:defined by the type of response: US perspective (direct & historically kinetic)US perspective (direct & historically kinetic) European perspective (indirect)European perspective (indirect) Asian perspectives (mixed) Asian perspectives (mixed) Adversaries perspective (direct & historically Adversaries perspective (direct & historically

kinetic, only when defeated pattern changes)kinetic, only when defeated pattern changes)

U.S policy exampleU.S policy example Make no concessions to terrorists and strike Make no concessions to terrorists and strike

no deals; no deals; Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes; Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes; Isolate and apply pressure on states that Isolate and apply pressure on states that

sponsor terrorism to force them to change sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behavior; and, their behavior; and,

Bolster the counterterrorism capabilities of Bolster the counterterrorism capabilities of countries that work with the United States countries that work with the United States and require assistance. and require assistance.

http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.html

Historical Statistical DataHistorical Statistical Data

Historical view 1997 dataHistorical view 1997 data

Most deadliest groups 1997 dataMost deadliest groups 1997 data

1997 The Year of Violence1997 The Year of Violence

Terrorist Incidents by Region Terrorist Incidents by Region 01/01/1968 - 12/24/2006 01/01/1968 - 12/24/2006 

RegionRegion IncidentsIncidents InjuriesInjuries FatalitiesFatalities

AfricaAfrica 10591059 92089208 34963496

East & Central AsiaEast & Central Asia 242242 55845584 253253

Eastern EuropeEastern Europe 14051405 51005100 19841984

Latin America & the CaribbeanLatin America & the Caribbean 36163616 38543854 23222322

Middle East / Persian GulfMiddle East / Persian Gulf 1242412424 4443544435 2201422014North AmericaNorth America 576576 42214221 35663566

South AsiaSouth Asia 46044604 2209722097 80718071

Southeast Asia & OceaniaSoutheast Asia & Oceania 15561556 50905090 17911791

Western EuropeWestern Europe 54735473 56425642 14391439

TOTALTOTAL 3095530955 105231105231 4493644936

Terrorist Incidents by Target Terrorist Incidents by Target 01/01/1968 - 12/24/200601/01/1968 - 12/24/2006   

TargetTarget IncidentsIncidents InjuriesInjuries FatalitiesFatalities

Airports & AirlinesAirports & Airlines 44 166166 4343

BusinessBusiness 2323 29622962 29132913

DiplomaticDiplomatic 2222 57395739 414414

GovernmentGovernment 2020 344344 364364

Journalists & MediaJournalists & Media 44 9292 3232

MaritimeMaritime 11 3939 1717

MilitaryMilitary 2424 296296 430430

NGONGO 33 66 1919

OtherOther 1414 366366 190190

PolicePolice 1212 338338 8888

Private Citizens & PropertyPrivate Citizens & Property 3535 16291629 287287

Religious Figures/InstitutionsReligious Figures/Institutions 33 6969 2525

TouristsTourists 55 405405 223223

TransportationTransportation 2929 847847 260260

UnknownUnknown 1414 33 1515

UtilitiesUtilities 11 00 66

TOTALTOTAL 214214 1330113301 53265326

1980 – 1990/ 1990 - 20061980 – 1990/ 1990 - 2006Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities

January 1798 4688 2030

February 1521 4941 2211

March 1622 11929 2330

April 1410 3963 1789

May 1401 4653 1929

June 1573 4751 2051

July 1816 4795 2173

August 1851 11365 2937

September 1529 7941 5373

October 1736 5812 2512

November 1670 4765 1983

December 1828 4851 2108

TOTAL 19755 74454 29426

Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities

January 238 176 165

February 240 578 157

March 341 1060 361

April 327 1983 310

May 265 314 109

June 279 277 464

July 278 990 223

August 302 619 193

September 315 1100 447

October 315 1098 541

November 236 389 370

December 276 765 527

TOTAL 3412 9349 3867

MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND

Evolution of TerrorismEvolution of Terrorism

Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) Is Terrorism a Serious ThreatIs Terrorism a Serious Threat

Terrorism is a Serious Threat (Hoffman, Paul Bremer!)Terrorism is a Serious Threat (Hoffman, Paul Bremer!) The Threat of Terrorism is Overstated (1997-2000) [Larry C. The Threat of Terrorism is Overstated (1997-2000) [Larry C.

Johnson/ William Church]Johnson/ William Church] WMD Do Not Pose a Terrorist ThreatWMD Do Not Pose a Terrorist Threat Terrorism Against Information Systems Is a ThreatTerrorism Against Information Systems Is a Threat

The Threat of Terrorism is Being Reduced (John Ashcroft! - 2004)The Threat of Terrorism is Being Reduced (John Ashcroft! - 2004) Biological Terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)Biological Terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004) The Threat of Biological Terrorism has been exaggerated (2004)The Threat of Biological Terrorism has been exaggerated (2004) America Is a Serious Terrorist Threat (2004)America Is a Serious Terrorist Threat (2004) Southeast Asia Terrorism Is a Serious Problem (2004)Southeast Asia Terrorism Is a Serious Problem (2004) Narco-terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)Narco-terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)

Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) What Motivates Terrorism?What Motivates Terrorism?

Religious Fanaticism Motivates TerroristsReligious Fanaticism Motivates Terrorists Postwar Developments Motivate TerroristsPostwar Developments Motivate Terrorists Democracy Encourages TerrorismDemocracy Encourages Terrorism Economic Distress Motivates Terrorists (2000 & 2004)Economic Distress Motivates Terrorists (2000 & 2004) Israeli Actions Motivate Middle East TerroristsIsraeli Actions Motivate Middle East Terrorists A combination of factors motivate TerroristsA combination of factors motivate Terrorists

What Are the Causes of Terrorism?What Are the Causes of Terrorism? Islam Encourages Terrorism (2004)Islam Encourages Terrorism (2004) Islam Does Not Encourage Terrorism (2004)Islam Does Not Encourage Terrorism (2004) Economic Problems Cause Terrorism (2004)Economic Problems Cause Terrorism (2004) Israel's Occupation of Palestine Causes Terrorism (Hamas – 2004)Israel's Occupation of Palestine Causes Terrorism (Hamas – 2004) Palestinian Hatred of Israel Causes Terrorism Palestinian Hatred of Israel Causes Terrorism

Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) Can Terrorism be Justified?Can Terrorism be Justified?

Resistance to Tyranny Justifies Violence against U.S Resistance to Tyranny Justifies Violence against U.S governmentgovernment

Resistance to British Rule Justifies Bombings in Northern Resistance to British Rule Justifies Bombings in Northern IrelandIreland

Bombings in Northern Ireland Cannot be JustifiedBombings in Northern Ireland Cannot be Justified American Policies in the Middle East Justify Islamic American Policies in the Middle East Justify Islamic

Terrorism (Osama Bin Laden interview)Terrorism (Osama Bin Laden interview) Israeli Occupation of Palestine Justifies Islamic TerrorismIsraeli Occupation of Palestine Justifies Islamic Terrorism The Islamic Faith Does Not Condone Terrorism The Islamic Faith Does Not Condone Terrorism

Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) How Should the United States respond?How Should the United States respond?

Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Help Reduce Terrorism Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Help Reduce Terrorism Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Not Reduce Terrorism Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Not Reduce Terrorism The U.S Should Retaliate Against Terrorist GroupsThe U.S Should Retaliate Against Terrorist Groups Retaliation Efforts Against Terrorists Are FruitlessRetaliation Efforts Against Terrorists Are Fruitless Expanding the FBI’s Power is a necessary Response to Terrorism (Louis J. Expanding the FBI’s Power is a necessary Response to Terrorism (Louis J.

Freeh)Freeh) CT Legislation is a Dangerous Expansion of Governmental Powers CT Legislation is a Dangerous Expansion of Governmental Powers

How Should America’s Domestic War on Terrorism Be How Should America’s Domestic War on Terrorism Be Conducted? (2004) Conducted? (2004) Antiterrorism Legislation Will Make America SaferAntiterrorism Legislation Will Make America Safer Antiterrorism Legislation Threatens Civil Liberties Antiterrorism Legislation Threatens Civil Liberties Racial Profiling Will Make America Safer Racial Profiling Will Make America Safer Racial Profiling Will Make America Less SafeRacial Profiling Will Make America Less Safe Immigration Must Be Restricted to Protect America Against TerroristsImmigration Must Be Restricted to Protect America Against Terrorists Immigrants Enhance National SecurityImmigrants Enhance National Security

Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2004) – surprise entry(2004) – surprise entry How Should the International Community How Should the International Community

Respond to Terrorism?Respond to Terrorism? The UN Should Lead the Fight Against The UN Should Lead the Fight Against

Terrorism vs. Should Not Lead the FightTerrorism vs. Should Not Lead the Fight War Is an Appropriate Response to Terrorism War Is an Appropriate Response to Terrorism War Is the Wrong Response to TerrorismWar Is the Wrong Response to Terrorism Brokering a Peace Between Israel & Palestinians Brokering a Peace Between Israel & Palestinians

Can Reduce Terrorism vs. Will Not Reduce Can Reduce Terrorism vs. Will Not Reduce Terrorism Terrorism

Old vs. New TerrorOld vs. New Terror Old terror (“system/state terror”?)Old terror (“system/state terror”?)

Mid-eastern PLO (supported by Stasi ergo the Soviets!); nationalistic

Defined, set of political, social or economic objectives, taking credit with communiqués or explaining their actions

Marxist-Leninist movements Marxist-Leninist movements South AmericaSouth America

FARC, MRTA, SL, SandinistasFARC, MRTA, SL, Sandinistas Europe Europe

RAF, Red BrigadesRAF, Red Brigades

Nationalistic Nationalistic IRA, ETAIRA, ETA

New forms of TerrorismNew forms of Terrorism New so new (Hoffman)New so new (Hoffman)

Religious imperatives encapsulates the confluence Religious imperatives encapsulates the confluence of the adversary, motivation and rationaleof the adversary, motivation and rationale

Less cohesive organizational entitiesLess cohesive organizational entities Amorphous, religious or millenarian aimsAmorphous, religious or millenarian aims Obscure, zealous nationalist religious groups Obscure, zealous nationalist religious groups Self started, home grownSelf started, home grown

Converted from nationalistic aims to Converted from nationalistic aims to “divine-inspired”, mystical, vehemently anti-“divine-inspired”, mystical, vehemently anti-governmentgovernment

1980 – 1990/ 1990 - 20061980 – 1990/ 1990 - 2006Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities

January 1798 4688 2030

February 1521 4941 2211

March 1622 11929 2330

April 1410 3963 1789

May 1401 4653 1929

June 1573 4751 2051

July 1816 4795 2173

August 1851 11365 2937

September 1529 7941 5373

October 1736 5812 2512

November 1670 4765 1983

December 1828 4851 2108

TOTAL 19755 74454 29426

Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities

January 238 176 165

February 240 578 157

March 341 1060 361

April 327 1983 310

May 265 314 109

June 279 277 464

July 278 990 223

August 302 619 193

September 315 1100 447

October 315 1098 541

November 236 389 370

December 276 765 527

TOTAL 3412 9349 3867

MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND

New forms of TerrorismNew forms of Terrorism Ethical/nationalistic Ethical/nationalistic Stronger ideological reasons Stronger ideological reasons Broad based social movement, no longer close knit Broad based social movement, no longer close knit

former war veterans.former war veterans. Old Al Qaeda not entirely supersededOld Al Qaeda not entirely superseded Centralized targeting, ideological direction & Centralized targeting, ideological direction &

operational supportoperational support Emergence of autonomous, self-recruited self Emergence of autonomous, self-recruited self

starter cellsstarter cells Coalesce spontaneous plan & attack without Coalesce spontaneous plan & attack without

reference or active involvement of the global jihadreference or active involvement of the global jihad

http://www.iiss.org/publications

Is terrorism more predominant in the Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold war area?post cold war area? Predominant extremist fundamental causes are deep rooted sovereign Predominant extremist fundamental causes are deep rooted sovereign

political state issues. Terrorism in the post‑Cold War world is tied to political state issues. Terrorism in the post‑Cold War world is tied to the sovereign state system more than ever before. the sovereign state system more than ever before.

Since 1991 terrorism has always been motivated by parochial ethnic, Since 1991 terrorism has always been motivated by parochial ethnic, national, and religious loyalties than by universalism ideologies. national, and religious loyalties than by universalism ideologies. Terrorism is a international problems extending Terrorism is a international problems extending beyond sovereignty and beyond sovereignty and rooted in the sovereign state system rather than less. rooted in the sovereign state system rather than less.

Focused on creating their own revolutionary Islamic regimes rather Focused on creating their own revolutionary Islamic regimes rather then submerging them in utopian “Ummah” of the Bin Laden world. then submerging them in utopian “Ummah” of the Bin Laden world. However the Ummah concept does have its attractors. However the Ummah concept does have its attractors.

This is in sharp contrast to the Cold War years This is in sharp contrast to the Cold War years Assumption that terrorism was primarily a product of an international Assumption that terrorism was primarily a product of an international

conspiracy created by the Soviet Union to spread communism and Soviet conspiracy created by the Soviet Union to spread communism and Soviet foreign policy. That assumption was never totally accurate. foreign policy. That assumption was never totally accurate.

Cusimano, Maryann K.  2000. Beyond Sovereignty: Issues for a Global Agenda. Pp. 96-107 http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htm

CommonalitiesCommonalities

Formation of an Ideology(religious, leftist, right wing,

social, political)

First action

Statement of Intent

Terrorism/Counter terrorism mirror

Disconnect from realityPerception of wining

Denial, suppression of existence

Ignorance by government

Disconnect from realityDenial of existance

Marginalization

The State The Extremist/The terrorist

Action

Statement of Intent

Success, failure by Government to

contain movement

Increase of intensity of actions

Studying the problem(inaction)

Investigations & Actions

Reactive strategy to the threat

Blame of political opportunity

Continuing of Denial

State erodes

State collapseSystem will be replaced

State recognizes threat &adopts a proactive

CI strategy

Aggressive law & military programs

(training, international cooperation/assistance)

Loss of key leaders

Civilian casualties increase

Population favorsgovernment

Middle class, intellectuals favor

government

Direct relationship

Key incident alienatesPopular support

Security forcesachieve tactical

succes

Economical factorsimprove

Infrastructure, logistics, support is

impacted

Split within the movement

Marginalization of radical elements

Position of compromiseAdversary surrenders

or marginalized

CommonalitiesCommonalities Goals, strategies, operations, organization, Goals, strategies, operations, organization,

ideology, Target, objective, motive, ideology, Target, objective, motive, perpetrator, and legitimacy or legality of the perpetrator, and legitimacy or legality of the act. act.

Escalation of force & Trigger for violenceEscalation of force & Trigger for violence Intifada (Jewish truck driver overrun 5 Intifada (Jewish truck driver overrun 5

Palestinians); exploit situation for political aimsPalestinians); exploit situation for political aims (Aggressive) response by governments(Aggressive) response by governments

CommonalitiesCommonalities Visuals, need for expressionVisuals, need for expression

““Terrorist groups we’re dealing with, I think, are Terrorist groups we’re dealing with, I think, are bound to visuals.”bound to visuals.”

Government platitudesGovernment platitudes ““All insurgents are terrorists”All insurgents are terrorists”

Poor law enforcement Poor law enforcement Corruption (Azahari, 50,000 IDR)Corruption (Azahari, 50,000 IDR)

Lack of transparent governanceLack of transparent governance Social grievances (Thailand)Social grievances (Thailand)

Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat? "Trends in terrorism over the past 15 years "Trends in terrorism over the past 15 years

indicate that loosely linked transnational indicate that loosely linked transnational networks motivated primarily by religious networks motivated primarily by religious ideologies seeking mass casualties are ideologies seeking mass casualties are replacing more 'traditional' terrorists who replacing more 'traditional' terrorists who are motivated primarily by politics," says are motivated primarily by politics," says Jason Pate, a senior research associate at Jason Pate, a senior research associate at the Monterey Institute of International the Monterey Institute of International Studies. "These ominous trends suggest the Studies. "These ominous trends suggest the potential for mass-casualty attacks, and potential for mass-casualty attacks, and because biological agents could be used in because biological agents could be used in this fashion, the potential for mass-casualty this fashion, the potential for mass-casualty bioterrorism may be at hand."bioterrorism may be at hand."

http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1101/ijpe/pj63pate-2.htm

Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat?

Definition of mass casualties reached Definition of mass casualties reached new meaning at the 9/11 attacksnew meaning at the 9/11 attacks

Al Qaeda model, once a year but big!Al Qaeda model, once a year but big! High media impactHigh media impact High casualties High casualties Aggressive response by state to alienate Aggressive response by state to alienate

massesmasses

Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat? Strains the state security apparatus Strains the state security apparatus Strains response systems Strains response systems

To maintain stability and effectiveness of To maintain stability and effectiveness of medical, political and Internal Security systemsmedical, political and Internal Security systems

Objectives to weaken and collapse the state, Objectives to weaken and collapse the state, society and the will to fightsociety and the will to fight

High levels of casualties result in emotional High levels of casualties result in emotional responseresponse

Countermeasures Countermeasures

Components of Counter Terror Components of Counter Terror policypolicy Public policy & diplomacyPublic policy & diplomacy

Responsibility of political leadershipResponsibility of political leadership Political aspects of terrorismPolitical aspects of terrorism

Law enforcement & public securityLaw enforcement & public security Deals with the criminal aspects; apprehension & judiciary Deals with the criminal aspects; apprehension & judiciary

processprocess IntelligenceIntelligence

Terrorism are largely covert actionsTerrorism are largely covert actions Identify intend and prevent, apprehend or divert/foil the attackIdentify intend and prevent, apprehend or divert/foil the attack

The use of force, including covert actionThe use of force, including covert action proactive in contrast to the mainly reactive tactics of law proactive in contrast to the mainly reactive tactics of law

enforcement and public security.enforcement and public security. Conciliation Conciliation

Re-integration of former adversaries to return to society; Re-integration of former adversaries to return to society; Process of “public healing”Process of “public healing”

What counter measures we can take What counter measures we can take against the threat?against the threat?

Addressing the ideological battleAddressing the ideological battle Recognizing the strong bond within the Recognizing the strong bond within the

social cell & unit structuresocial cell & unit structure ““Zero” tolerance policy (French position)Zero” tolerance policy (French position) Countering the media advantage Countering the media advantage Denying battle space, refuge/sanctuariesDenying battle space, refuge/sanctuaries Identifying the less evidence more “gut Identifying the less evidence more “gut

feeling” is needed. Intuitive response feeling” is needed. Intuitive response

Principal StrategyPrincipal Strategy Terrorism cannot be treated as a monolithic threat. Terrorism cannot be treated as a monolithic threat. Kinetics is only one aspect. CT strategies are a means to Kinetics is only one aspect. CT strategies are a means to

the Endthe End Moreover, as much as we may wish to focus on the terror tactics Moreover, as much as we may wish to focus on the terror tactics

and terrorist means, we cannot overlook the ends. and terrorist means, we cannot overlook the ends. Policy response must incorporate understanding of Policy response must incorporate understanding of

terrorist strategyterrorist strategy Terrorist groups evolve, so must the governments responseTerrorist groups evolve, so must the governments response

Multiple response strategyMultiple response strategy Address and recognize grievance by populationAddress and recognize grievance by population Secure the population Secure the population Bolster state legitimacy, demonstrate state effectiveness regarding Bolster state legitimacy, demonstrate state effectiveness regarding

insecurity. insecurity. Build coalition if necessary cross border promote social valuesBuild coalition if necessary cross border promote social values

If history is a teacher……..If history is a teacher…….. Every successful CT strategy includedEvery successful CT strategy included

Fair and firm leadershipFair and firm leadership Clear defined policy objectivesClear defined policy objectives Homegrown political will & desire to change and Homegrown political will & desire to change and

resisting extremist forcesresisting extremist forces Unified response command, Unified response command, but but defined roles for defined roles for

Police Police IntelligenceIntelligence MilitaryMilitary Strategic IntelligenceStrategic Intelligence

I.C.A.R.U.L.S.K/ I.K.A.R.U.SI.C.A.R.U.L.S.K/ I.K.A.R.U.S IntelligenceIntelligence Community/Kinetics Community/Kinetics AuthorityAuthority Religious Religious UnconventionalUnconventional Security Security

IntelligenceIntelligence Small focused Small focused Credible & accepted field officersCredible & accepted field officers Promote an environment of trust Promote an environment of trust

Population, informers and build support basePopulation, informers and build support base Support collectionSupport collection Disseminate at tactical response level Disseminate at tactical response level Exploit at strategic levelExploit at strategic level

Abuses by the adversary Abuses by the adversary

Ideological battleIdeological battle Web mail, Internet, home made video clips, Web mail, Internet, home made video clips,

hand phone camerashand phone cameras Muaskar al-Battar (The Camp of al-Battar, Muaskar al-Battar (The Camp of al-Battar,

the name of Mohammed’s sword) the name of Mohammed’s sword) Sawt al-Jihad (The Voice of Jihad) Sawt al-Jihad (The Voice of Jihad) Total empowerment for moderate forcesTotal empowerment for moderate forces Education, education, education in schools Education, education, education in schools

on presenting the dangers of extremismon presenting the dangers of extremism

AuthorityAuthority Provide an recognized authority Provide an recognized authority Health supportHealth support Property ownershipProperty ownership Respected & responsive police Respected & responsive police Central government leadership at local Central government leadership at local

and regional leveland regional level EducationEducation

ReligionReligion Ensure religion is not hijacked by Ensure religion is not hijacked by

extremismextremism Maintain control on religious teachingsMaintain control on religious teachings Expose and exploit identified false Expose and exploit identified false

believers or preachers of hate and believers or preachers of hate and dissent dissent

Maintain close relationship between Maintain close relationship between religious groupsreligious groups

UnconventionalUnconventional Community Development ProgramsCommunity Development Programs

Sports, Children, Elderly Sports, Children, Elderly TransportationTransportation

Road conditions Road conditions Media, print and modern communicationsMedia, print and modern communications

Football game (Soviets loved German TV, Bay(be)-watch)Football game (Soviets loved German TV, Bay(be)-watch) Emergency support in case of needsEmergency support in case of needs

Water supplies, telephone, electricity, heatWater supplies, telephone, electricity, heat Direct ActionDirect Action

Use of force counter extreme violence, brutality or bestialityUse of force counter extreme violence, brutality or bestiality Human AspectHuman Aspect

CommunityCommunity Must be immediately part of the intelligence Must be immediately part of the intelligence

& combined efforts & combined efforts Listen grievances and provide sustainable Listen grievances and provide sustainable

protection protection Support basic needs (water, shelter, health)Support basic needs (water, shelter, health) Keep it simple and honestKeep it simple and honest Identify and respect customsIdentify and respect customs

Shelter, Hospitality & Retaliation tribal conceptsShelter, Hospitality & Retaliation tribal concepts

Law EnforcementLaw Enforcement ApprehensionApprehension Functioning courtFunctioning court Prison process Prison process Investigation of capital crime and Investigation of capital crime and

persecution of capital crimespersecution of capital crimes

StateState Transparent, honest and better then Transparent, honest and better then

the adversarythe adversary Economical supportive Economical supportive Defined leadership, clear, concise and Defined leadership, clear, concise and

perceived as incorruptibleperceived as incorruptible Clear political and strategic mandatesClear political and strategic mandates Supportive & educative of its citizensSupportive & educative of its citizens

but, avoid the rumor driversbut, avoid the rumor drivers

KineticsKinetics Restraint but effectiveRestraint but effective Avoid “pink misting”Avoid “pink misting”

Overly aggressive use of precision ammunitionOverly aggressive use of precision ammunition Public education of being at war means Public education of being at war means

loosing menloosing men Clear defined use of force at strategic & Clear defined use of force at strategic &

tactical leveltactical level Increase in SOF, CT forces globallyIncrease in SOF, CT forces globally

ConclusionsConclusions

If History is a teacher!If History is a teacher!

Deep rifts within the political Deep rifts within the political spectrumspectrum Fighting terrorism, what terrorism is generally is, the concept Fighting terrorism, what terrorism is generally is, the concept

of terror, strong supportof terror, strong support The interventions in Iraq strong diverse views & increasingly The interventions in Iraq strong diverse views & increasingly

less supportedless supported Afghanistan morally supported, the aim, goals & adversary Afghanistan morally supported, the aim, goals & adversary

are clear! are clear! Fear of increasing governance influencing civil liberties Fear of increasing governance influencing civil liberties

under the mantle “fighting terrorism”under the mantle “fighting terrorism” Clash of civilization is feared dividing societiesClash of civilization is feared dividing societies Bilateral relationship are not exploited enoughBilateral relationship are not exploited enough Terrorism broad stroked with war is unlikely providing a Terrorism broad stroked with war is unlikely providing a

solution. solution.

References & PerspectivesReferences & Perspectives Hamas in its own words Hamas in its own words http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Terrorism/Hamas1.htmlhttp://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Terrorism/Hamas1.html Cyber terrorism http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19980923S0016Cyber terrorism http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19980923S0016 http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htmhttp://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htm James Ashcroft, James Ashcroft, Making A Killing, Making A Killing, Virgin Books, pg. 215Virgin Books, pg. 215 http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1101/ijpe/pj63pate-2.htm Cusimano, Maryann K.  2000. Beyond Sovereignty: Issues for a Global

Agenda. Pp. 96-107 http://www.iiss.org/publications MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.html http://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htmhttp://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htm http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.htmlhttp://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.html http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdfhttp://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdf http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/

A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3BA728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3B http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/hob01/