ThongKe[Easyvn.net]

7/31/2019 ThongKe[Easyvn.net]

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M UC L UC

CHNG 1 NHA P M ON THONG K EHOC ....... ........................ .6

1.1. S L C SRA I V APHAT TRIEN CUA THONG K EHOC

61.2. OI TNG N GHIEN CU CU A THONG K EHOC. ................. 91.3. QUY L UA T SOL N V A TNH QU Y L UA T THONG K E......... 111.4. NHNG K HA I NIEM THNG DUNG TRONG T HONG K EHOC. ........................................................................................................ 11

1.4.1. Tong thethong ke: ...............................................................................11 1.4.2. n vtong the: ...................................................................................13 1.4.3. Tieu thc (tieu ch): .............................................................................131.4.4. Chtieu thong ke: ................................................................................13

CA U HOI ON TAP CHN G 1 .............................................................................14 CHNG 2 QU A TRNH NGHIEN CU THONG K E.......... ........... 15

2.1.HETHONGCHTIEU THONGK E........................................................15 2.1.1. Khai niem hethong chtieu thong ke(goi tat lahethong chtieu)....152.1.2. Nguyen tac xay dng hethong chtieu thong ke..................................15

2.2.IEU TRA THONGKE...........................................................................16 2.2.1. KHAI NIEM , Y NGHA NHIEM V U............................................16

2.2.1.1. Khai niem:........................................................................................162.2.1.2. Yngha: ............................................................................................16

2.2.1.3. Yeu cau: ...........................................................................................162.2.2. NOI DUNG K EHOA CH IEU TRA THONG K E. .......................17

2.2.2.1. Xac nh muc ch nhiem vucua cong tac ieu tra thong ke: ...172.2.2.2. Xac nh oi tng ieu tra, n vi eu tra: ...............................172.2.2.3. Noi dung ieu tra:............................................................................172.2.2.4. Xac nh thi gian vaa i em ieu tra: .......................................182.2.2.5. Lap bi eu ieu tra hng dan cach ghi : ..........................................182.2.2.6. K ehoach tien hanh: .........................................................................18

2.2.3. CA C L OA I IEU TRA THONG K E.............................................18

2.2.4. HAI HNH THC T OCH C IEU TRA THONG K E.................192.2.4.1. Bao cao thong kenh ky:....................................................................192.2.4.2. ieu tra chuyen mon: ...........................................................................20

2.2.5. CAC PH NG PHAP THU THAP TAI L IEU BAN AU. ............202.2.5.1. ang kytrc t iep: ............................................................................202.2.5.2. Phong van:........................................................................................202.2.5.3. ang kyqua chng tsosach: ...........................................................20

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2.2.6. CAC SA I SOTRONG IEU TRA THONG K EVABIEN PHAPK HAC PHUC. ............................................................................................20

2.3.TONGHPTHONGKE..........................................................................21 2.3.1. KHAI NIEM Y NGHA................................................................21

2.3.1.1. Khai niem:........................................................................................212.3.1.2. Yngha: ............................................................................................21 2.3.1.3. Nhng van ec ban cua tong hp thong ke. ..............................212.3.1.4. Bang thong kevaoththong ke: ................................................22

2.4.PHAN TCH THONGKE.........................................................................28 2.4.1. KHAI NIEM Y NGH A NHIEM VU. ...........................................28 2.4.2. CAC NGUYEN TAC C BAN CUA PHAN TCH THONG KE. ...292.4.3. CAC V AN ECHUYEU K HI TIEN HANH PHAN TCH THONG K E...................................................................................................................30

2.4.3.1. Xac nh nhiem vucuthecua phan tch thong ke. .....................302.4.3.2. La chon anh giatai l ieu dung ephan t ch. .............................302.4.3.3. Xac nh cac phng phap vacac chtieu phan tch. ..................312.4.3.4. So sanh oi chieu cac chtieu........................................................312.4.3.5. Rut ra ket luan vaexuat kien ngh.............................................32

CA U HOI ON TAP CHN G 2 .............................................................................33

CHNG 3 PHA N TOTH ONG KE..................................34

3.1. K HA I NIEM :.................................................................................343.2. PHNG PHAP PH AN TOTHONG KE: ........................................35

CA U HOI V A BA I TA P CHNG 3........................................................................43 CHNG 4 L NG HOA HIEN TNG K INH TEX A HOI ............. 45

4.1. CHTIEU TUY ET OI : ............. .................................................. 454.1.1. Chtieu tuyet oi thi iem: ..............................................................454.1.2. Chtieu tuyet oi thi ky: ...................................................................46

4.2. CHTIEU TNG OI: .............................................................. 494.2.1. Sotng oi ong thai : .......................................................................504.2.2. Sotng oi kehoach:........................................................................524.2.3. Sotng oi ket cau:...........................................................................534.2.4. Sotng oi cng o: .......................................................................544.2.5. Sotng oi so sanh: ..........................................................................54

4.3. CH TI EU BNH QU AN: .............................................................544.3.1. K hai niem, yngha vaac iem:.......................................................544.3.2. Cac loai sobnh quan:.........................................................................55

4.4. M OT ...............................................................................................63



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4.4.1. K hai niem .............................................................................................63 4.4.2. Cong thc xac nh mot ......................................................................634.4.3. ng dung cua mot trong thc tien: ....................................................67

4.5. SOTRUNG V ................................................................................67

4.5.1. K hai niem .............................................................................................67 4.5.2. Cach xac nh sotrung v ...................................................................674.5.3. Tnh chat cua sotrung v....................................................................69

4.6. OBIEN THIEN CUA TIEU THC: ..............................................69 4.6.1. K hai niem, yngha: .............................................................................694.6.2. Cac chtieu anh giaobien thien cua tieu thc: ..........................704.7. Cac phng phap tnh phng sai: ........................................................74

CA U HOI V A BA I TA P CHNG 4........................................................................75

CHNG 5 TNG QUA N V A HOI QUY ..........................83

5.1. M OI L IEN HEGIA CAC HIEN TNG, NHIEM V UCUAPHNG PHA P HOI QUY V A TNG QU AN. ..................................835.2. TNG QUA N TUY EN TNH GIA HAI TIEU THC............ 84

5.2.1. Trng hp solieu cha phan to: ......................................................845.2.2. Trng hp solieu c phan to: ......................................................89

5.3. TNG QUAN PHI TUY EN TNH GIA HA I TIEU TH C. .. 905.3.1. Cac phng tr nh hoi quy: ..................................................................915.3.2. Cac l oai chtieu anh giatng quan phi tuyen. ............................92

5.4. LIEN HETNG QUA N TUY EN TNH GIA NHIEU TIEU

THC. ...................................................................................................... 95CA U HOI V A BA I TA P CHNG 5........................................................................98

CHNG 6 DAY SOTHI GIA N........ ......................... 101

6.1. KHAI N IEM :..................................................................................1016.2. CA C CHTIEU PHAN TCH: ........ ................................................ 102

6.2.1. M c otrung bnh theo thi gi an: .................................................... 1026.2.2. Lng tang hoac giam tuyet oi : ..................................................... 1046.2.3. Toc ophat trien: .............................................................................. 1056.2.4. Toc otang hoac giam: .................................................................... 106

6.2.5. Trtuyet oi cua 1% tang (hoac giam): .......................................... 1066.3. CA C PHNG PHA P BIEU HIEN X U HNG PHA T TRIENCUA HIEN TNG: .............................................................................107

6.3.1. Phng phap mrong khoang cach thi gian: ...............................1076.3.2. Phng phap sotrung bnh trt: ..................................................... 1086.3.3. Phng phap hoi quy:........................................................................ 109



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6.3.4. Phng phap bieu hien bien ong thi vu: .....................................111CA U HOI V A BA I TA P CHNG 6......................................................................113

CHNG 7 PHNG PHA P CHSO................... ................. 115

7.1. Y NGHA V A TAC DUNG CUA CH SO: ............................... 1157.1.1. K hai niem chso:...............................................................................1157.1.2. ac iem cua phng phap chso: .................................................. 1157.1.3. Tac dung chso: .................................................................................115

7.2. PHNG PHA P X A C NH CH SO:....................................... 1157.2.1. Phan l oai chso:.................................................................................1157.2.2. Phng phap t nh chsophat trien: ................................................. 1177.2.3. Hethong chso: .................................................................................125

7.3. V AN DUNG HETHONG CH SOEPHA N TCH TNH HNHBIEN ONG K ET QUA HOA T ONG V AHIEU QUA HOAT ONG

CUA M OT TONG THEPHC TA P. ....................................................1347.3.1. Phan tch sbien ong cua chti eu chat lng bnh quan qua haithi gi an khac nhau (phan tch sbi en ong hi eu quahoat ong):..............134 7.3.2. Phan tch sbien ong cua tong thephc tap ong chat vatmnguyen nhan anh hng. ...................................................................................136

CA U HOI V A BA I TA P CHNG 7......................................................................138

CHNG 8 IEU TRA CHON M A U ......................... 141

8.1. K HA I NIEM , U NHC IEM V APHAM V I SDUNG IEU

TRA CHON M A U..................................................................................1418.1.1. K hai niem: ..........................................................................................1418.1.2. u iem cua ieu tra chon mau:...................................................... 1418.1.3. Pham vi sdung i eu tra chon mau: ...............................................1428.1.4. Tong thechung vatong themau: .................................................... 143

8.2. IEU TRA CH ON M A U NGA U NHIEN................................... 1448.2.1. Nhng van elyluan........................................................................ 1448.2.2. Cac phng thc tochc chon mau....................................................... 1538.2.3. ieu tra chon mau nhovachon mau thi iem. ..................................157

8.3. IEU TRA CH ON M A U PH I NGA U N HIEN. ......................... 159

8.3.1. Phai bao am chnh xac oi tng ieu tra. .........................................1598.3.2. Van echon n v ieu tra. .................................................................1608.3.3. Xac nh son vieu tra..................................................................... 1618.3.4. Sai sochon mau ....................................................................................... 1618.3.5. Huan luyen lc lng tham gi a ieu tra................................................ 162

CAU HOI VABAI TAP CHNG 8 ...................................................................163



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TAI L IEU THAM KHAO ........................................................................... 165

PHULUC................................................................................................. 166

Phul uc 1. M au lay ykien khach hang .......................................................166

Phuluc 2. M au bao cao thong kenh ky..................................................167 Phuluc3. Tnh hesoa, b tren excel cho phng trnh hoi quy y = a + bx .....168



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Chng 1 NHA P M ON THONG K EHOC

1.1. S L C SRA I VAPHAT TRIEN CUA THONG KEHOC

Trong c chekinh tethtrng, cac nhakinh doanh, nhaquan l y, nhakinh te

conhieu c hoi thuan li cho cong viec nhng cung cokhong t ththach. Van enay oi hoi cac chuyen gia ophai nang cao trnh ovethong ke. ay lamot trong

nhng ieu k ien tat yeu cua k ien thc ecanh tranh tren thng trng, layeu to

can thiet cua van enghien cu xu hng vadbao v emc cung cau, toa ra

cac quyet nh toi u trong cac lnh vc hoat ong kinh doanh trong nen k inh te

hang hoa vadch vu.

Thuat ng Thong ke c sdung vahi eu theo nhieu ngha:

Thnhat, thong kec hi eu lamot hoat ong thc t ien veviec thu thap,

tch luy, xlyvaphan tch cac dlieu so. Nhng solieu nay ac trng vedan so,van hoa, giao duc vacac hien tng khac trong i song xahoi .

Thhai , thong kecothehieu lamot mon khoa hoc chuy en biet hay lamot

nganh khoa hoc chuyen nghien cu cac hien tng trong i song xahoi nhvao

mat lng cua chung. Nh mot cong cu, nguyen lythong kelacac phng phap

quan trong cua v iec l ap kehoach vadbao cua cac nhakinh doanh, nhaquan tr,

vacac chuyen gia k inh te.

Gi a khoa hoc thong kevathc tien comoi tng quan valien hemat thiet.

Khoa hoc thong kesdung cac solieu thc tetcac cuoc ieu tra thong ke, tonghp chung lai ephan tch, nhan nh vehien tng nghien cu. Ngc l ai , trong

nhng hoat ong thc tien, lythuyet khoa hoc thong kec ap dung egiai quyet

cho tng van equan lycuthe.

Thong kecolch sphat trien qua nhieu theky. Sxuat hien vaphat trien

cua nolado nhu cau thc tien cua xahoi: Khi can etnh toan dan so, sogia suc,

at ai canh tac, sotai san v.v . . . Nhng hoat ong nay xuat hien rat sm Trung

Quoc ttheky23 trc cong nguyen. Vao thi La macoai cung di en ra s ghi

chep, tnh toan nhng ngi dan tdo, sonolevacua cai . . . Cung v i sphat trien

cua xa hoi , hang hoa trong nc cung nh tren

th trng thegii ngay cang tang len, ieu nay oi hoi phai cocac thong tin ve

thong ke. Pham vi hoat ong cua thong kengay cang mrong, dan en s hoan



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thi en cua cac phng phap thu thap, xlyvaphan tch thong ke. Trong thc te, Cac

hoat ong a dang cua thong kec thehien nhvao stch hp nhieu nguyen ly,

tokhoa hoc thong kec hnh thanh.

Nhieu nhan nh cho rang: Nen tang cua khoa hoc thong kec xay dng

bi nhakinh tehoc ngi Anh Wil iam Petty (1623 1687). Tcac tac pham So

hoc chnh tr , Skhac bi et vetien te vamot sotac pham khac na, K . M arkc a

goi Petty langi sang lap ra mon Thong kehoc. Petty athanh lap mot hng

nghien cu khoa hoc gan v i Sohoc chnh tr .

M ot hng nghien cu c ban khac cung lam khoa hoc thong kephat trien o

lahng nghi en cu cua nhakhoa hoc ngi c G. Conbr ing (1606 1681), ong

axly, phan tch hethong motacheoNhanc. M on sinh cua ong lagiao s

luat vatri et hoc G. A chenwal l (1719 1772) lan au t ien trng Tong hpM arburs (1746) aday mon hoc mi vi ten l a Statistics . N oi dung chnh cua

khoa hoc nay lamotatnh hnh chnh trvanhng skien ang ghi nhcua Nha

nc. Sol ieu veNhanc c tm thay trong cac tac pham cua M .B . L omonosov

(1711 1765), trong ocac van ea ra xem xet ladan so, tai nguyen thien

nhien, tai chnh, cua cai hang hoa. . . c minh hoa bang cac solieu thong ke.

Hng phat trien nay cua thong kec goi lathong kemota.

Sau o, giao s trng ai hoc Tong hp Getti ngen A. Sl iser (1736 1809)

cai chnh lai quan i em tren. Ong cho rang, thong kekhong chmotacheochnhtrNhanc, maoi tng cua thong ke, theo ong, latoan boxahoi .

Sphat trien tiep theo cua thong kec vun ap bi nhieu nhakhoa hoc l y

thuyet vacac nhakhoa hoc thc nghiem. Trong o, ang quan tam lanhathong ke

hoc ngi BA. Ketle (1796 1874), ong ong gop mot cong trnh ang giavely

thuyet on nh cua cac chsothong ke.

Xu hng toan hoc trong thong kec phat trien trong cong trnh nghien

cu cua Francis Galton (Anh, 1822 1911), K. Pearson (Anh, 1857 1936), V. S.

Gosset (Anh, bi et hi eu Student, 1876 1937), R. A . Fi sher (Anh, 1890 1962), M .M itrel (1874 1948) vamot sonhatoan hoc khac na. . . F. Gal ton i ti en phong

nc Anh veThong kehoc, ong a ra khai ni em mau vehethong tng ho

cach tham dothong keexac nh hi eu quacua v iec cau kinh. Ong acung K .

Pearson thanh lap tap ch sinh trac (B iometri ka). Ketuc cong trnh cua Gal ton, K .



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Pearson l amot trong nhng ngi sang l ap ra nganh Toan hoc Thong kehien ai.

Ong nghi en cu cac mau, a ra nhng hesomangay nay ta goi lahesoPearson.

Ong nghien cu lythuyet tien hoatheo mohnh T hong ketoan hoc cua ong. Con

nhatoan hoc V . Gosset di danh hi eu Student aa ra lythuyet chon mau nhoe

rut ra k et luan xac ang nhat thien tng nghien cu. R. Fisher acocong phan

chia cac phng phap phan tch solng, ong aphat trien cac phng phap thong

keeso sanh nhng trung bnh cua hai mau, toxac nh skhac biet cua chung

coyngha hay khong. M . M itrel aong gop ytng Phong vubieu k inh te . Nh

vay, ai dien cho khuynh hng nay lac sLythuyet xac suat thong ke. olamot

trong cac nganh toan ng dung.

Gop phan quan trong cho sphat trien cua thong kelacac nhakhoa hoc thc

nghi em. thekyXV II I , trong cong trnh khoa hoc cua I .C. K i ri lov (1689 1737)

vaV. N . T at isev (1686 1750) thong kechc l uan giai chuyeu nh mot nganh

khoa hoc mota. Nhng sau o, vao na au thekyXIX, khoa hoc thong k ea

chuyen thanh yngha nhan thc. V .S. Porosin (1809 1868) trong tac pham

Nghien cu nhan xet venguyen lythong ke anhan manh: Khoa hoc thong ke

khong chgi i han viec mota . Con I .I . Srezenev (1812 1880) trong quy en

K inh nghiem veoi tng, cac n vthong kevakinh technh tr anoi rang:

Thong ketrong rat nhieu trng hp ngau nhien aphat hien ra Nhng tieu

chuan hoa . Nhathong kehoc danh t ieng D.P. Jurav (1810 1856) trong nghien

cu Venguon goc vang dung cua solieu thong ke acho rang: Thong kela

mon khoa hoc vecac t ieu chuan cua viec tnh toan .

Trong nghien cu cua giao s trng ai hoc Bach khoa Peterbur A .A .

Truprov (1874 1926), thong kec xem nh phng phap nghien cu cac hien

tng tnhien vaxahoi soln. Giao s I .U.E. Anson (1835 1839, trng ai hoc

Tong hp Peterbur) trong quyen Lythuyet thong ke agoi thong kelamon khoa

hoc xahoi . i theo quan i em nay conhakinh tehoc noi ti eng A .I . Trurov (1842

1908) trong tac pham Thong kehoc anhan manh: Can nghi en cu thong kevi qui mo ln nhvao phng phap ieu tra d l ieu vi ay usolng

vayeu tocan thiet etocothemieu tacac hien tng xahoi , tm ra quy luat va

cac nguyen nhan anh hng .



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Con nghien cu cua nhabac hoc A .A . Cauf man (1874 1919) aneu len

quan iem vethong kenh la Nghethuat o lng cac hien tng chnh trvaxa

hoi .

Nh vay, lch sphat trien cua thong kecho thay: Thong k elamot mon khoa

hoc, ra i vaphat trien nhvao s tch l uy kien thc cua nhan loai , rut ra c t

kinh nghiem nghien cu l ythuyet vathc tien, cho phep con ngi sdung e

quan lyxahoi .

Trong viec chuan bnham coc thong tin chnh xac, ay ucho hoat ong

kinh doanh cua cac nhaquan tr, chuyen vien kinh teth nhng chuyen vien nay can

c trang btot vekien thc thong ke, bao gom nhieu mon hoc. Trc het, lamon

Nguyen lythong ke M on c senghi en cu, thong kekinh texahoi. Ngoai ra

can mon Thong kechuyen nganh, Thong kedoanh nghi ep Lacac phng phapthong ke, anh gi aphan tch hoat ong k inh doanh cua nganh vadoanh nghiep;

mon Dbao Dung dbao hang hoa, dch vu th trng vacac hi en tng khac

trong moi quan hephuthuoc l an nhau.

1.2. OI TNG N GHIEN CU CUA THONG K EHOC.

ephan biet mon khoa hoc nay vi mon khoa hoc khac phai da vao oi

tng nghien cu rieng biet cua tng mon. Nh vay oi tng cua thong kehoc lag

? Nokhac vi cac mon khoa hoc k hac nh thenao.

- Trc het goi thong kehoc l amot mon khoa hoc xahoi v pham v i nghi encu cua nolacac hien tng vaquatrnh kinh texahoi . Cac hien tng vaqua

trnh nay bao gom:

+ Cac ieu kien cua san xuat vatrnh osan xuat: dan so, sc lao ong, tai

nguyen thien nhien, cua cai quoc dan tch luy...

+ Quatrnh tai san xuat xahoi qua cac khau: san xuat, phan phoi , vasdung

san pham xahoi .

+ Ngoai ra nocon nghien cu vei song vasinh hoat cua nhan dan: trnh o

van hoa, tnh hnh sc khoe, tnh hnh sinh hoat chnh tr, xa hoi ...

* Pham v i nghien cu cua thong kehoc lacac hien tng san xuat khong bao

gom cac hi en tng t nhi en, cac van ekythuat, tuy nhien trong nghien cu,

thong kehoc phai nghien cu en nhng anh hng cua nhan tot nhien vaky

thuat oi vi sphat trien cua san xuat, phai nghien cu en tnh hnh ap dung cac



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bien phap kythuat san x uat tien tien nham phan tch trnh osan xuat cua xahoi va

tac dung cua kythuat mi oi vi sphat trien cua san xuat.

-Thhai, thong kehoc nghien cu cac hien tng kinh texahoi nhvao viec

nghien cu cac con sothc tecua hien tng o, hay noi cach khac thong kenghien

cu mat lng trong slien hechat chevi mat chat cua mot hien tng, mot qua

trnh cuthe, tc l asethong qua nhng bieu hien vesolng, qui moket hp quan

hetyle, toc ophat trien ... erut ra nhng ket luan veban chat vatnh qui luat cua

hien tng nghien cu, bi v moi svat cung nh moi hien tng san xuat eu co

mat chat vamat lng khong tach ri nhau. M at lng phan anh qui mo, toc ophat

tri en... trong noi bosvat. V dumat lng gi up ta nghien cu qui mosan xuat cua

mot x nghiep: cosocong nhan labao nhieu, sosan pham (bu, ien) san xuat ra

trong mot ngay... hoac giup ta nghien cu c ket cau cong nhan: bao nhieu % la

cong nhan bu, bao nhi eu % lacong nhan i en...

M at chat gi up ta biet c svat olacai g? Giup ta phan bi et svat ay vi

svat khac. V dunghien cu cheosan xuat, cheophuc vu, quy mophuc v ucua

bu cuc vacua bu i en van hoaxagi up ta phan biet c skhac nhau gia bu

cuc vabu ien van hoa xa. Nh vay ta thay rang lng vachat lamot thethong

nhat trong mot s vat, s vat khong thecochat makhong colng vangc lai

lng nao cung lalng cua mot chat nhat nh.

- Thba, cac hien tng mathong kehoc nghien cu phai lahien tng soln, latong thecac hien tng cabi et v nh ta biet lng cua hien tng cabi et

thng chu tac ong cua nhieu nhan to, conhng nhan toban chat, tat nhien, cung

conhng nhan tokhong ban chat, ngau nhien, do ochcothong qua viec nghien

cu mot soln hien tng, tac ong cua cac nhan tongau nhien c butrvatriet

tieu, ban chat vatnh qui luat cua hien tng mi cokhanang thehien roret.

- Ngoai ra, nhng qui luat mathong ketm ra c vi mot hi en tng kinh

texahoi nao onochung t rong mot pham vi nhat nh, mot thi kynhat nh,

chkhong nh quy luat tnhien, noung t rong bat kythi gian vaa iem nao.Tnhng phan tch tren ta cotheket luan rang:

Thong kehoc lamot mon khoa hoc xahoi , nonghien cu mat lng trong s

l ien hechat chevi mat chat cua cac hien tng kinh texahoi soln trong ieu

kien thi gian vaa iem cu the.



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1.3. QUY L UAT SOL N VATNH QU Y L UAT THONG K E

Quy luat soln l amot quy luat cua l ythuyet xac suat, yngha cua quy luat nay la:

Tong hp squan sat soln ti mc ay ucac skien cabiet ngau nhien th tnh

tat nhien cua hien tng seboc lororet, qua osenoi len c ban chat cua hien

tng.

Thong kevan dung quy luat soln elng hoaban chat vaquy luat cua

hien tng kinh texahoi thong qua tnh quy luat thong ke.

Tnh quy luat thong k elamot trong nhng hnh thc bieu hien moi l ien he

chung cua cac hien tng trong t nhien vatrong xahoi. khi nghien cu tai l ieu

thong kevemot sokhaln n vcabiet tnh quy luat thong k emi bieu hien ro.

Nh trong thong kedan so, qua nghien cu mot sokhaln gi a nh nhieu a

phng vanhieu nc khac nhau, ngi ta thay tlesinh chau gai khong vt qua49%.

Vetnh chat, tnh quy luat thong kecung nh cac quy luat noi chung, phan

anh nhng moi l ien henhan quatat nhien. Nhng cac moi l ien henay thng khong

cotnh chat chung rong rai, maphai phu thuoc vao i eu kien phat trien cuthecua

hien tng.

Tnh quy luat thong k ekhong phai laket quatac ong cua mot nguyen nhan,

malacua toan bocac nguyen nhan k ehp vi nhau. olabieu hi en tong hp cua

nhieu moi l ien henhan qua, laac trng cua cac hien tng soln c tong hplai qua cac tong thethong ke. Nhn chung cang mrong pham vi thi gian cung vi

viec tang solng n vcua tong thethong ke, tnh quy luat thong kecang bieu

hien ro.

1.4. NHNG K HAI NIEM THNG D UNG TRONG T HONG K EHOC.

1.4.1. Tong thethong ke:

Latap hp nhng n v, yeu to, hien tng cabiet tren c smot ac iem

chung. V du: tap hp cac x nghiep cong nghi ep cau thanh tong thev chung l amot

tap hp nhng n vsan xuat ra san pham cong nghiep khong phan biet x nghiep

trc thuoc loai hnh g, ln hay nho, san xuat ra san pham g, hoac trong x

nghiep Bu chnh, tap hp cac to, san xuat bu chnh cau thanh mot tong thev no

lamot tap hp nhng n vsan xuat ra san pham bu, khong phan biet toohoat



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12

ong nh thenao, latogiao dch, tokhai thac, ong goi, ong tui ... mien latoo

phai tham gia vao quatrnh san xuat ra san pham bu chnh.

V iec xac nh ung an tong thethong kecoyngha quan trong trong nghien

cu thong ke. Neu xac nh khong ung tong thethong ke(tc labao gom canhng

n vthc ra khong nam trong tong theo) cac ket luan rut ra sesai lam, muc ch

nghien cu khong at c.

Phan loai tong thethong ke:

Tuy trng hp nghi en cu cuthe, chung ta gap cac l oai tong thesau:

* Tong theboc l o: latong thegom cac n vmata cothetrc tiep quan sat

hoac nhan biet c (tong thenhan khau, tong thecac trng ai hoc V iet Nam...)

* Tong the tiem an: latong thegom cac n vmata khong trc t iep quan

sat hoac nhan biet c. M uon xac nh ta phai thong qua mot hay mot sophngphap trung gian nao o(tong thenhng ngi a thch nghethuat cai lng, tong

thenhng ngi metn doan...).

* Tong theong chat: latong thebao gom cac n vgiong nhau mot hay

mot soac iem chuyeu col ien quan trc tiep en muc ch nghien cu.

* Tong thekhong ong chat: latong thegom cac n vkhac nhau nhng

ac iem chuyeu lien quan en muc ch nghien cu.

V iec xac nh mot tong thelaong chat hay khong ong chat latuy thuoc

vao muc ch nghien cu cuthe. Cac ket luan rut ra tnghien cu thong k echcoy

ngha khi nghien cu tren tong theong chat, hay noi cach khac, tong thethong ke

latong theam bao c t nh soln vatnh ong chat.

* Tong thechung: latong thegom tat cacac n vthuoc pham vi hien tng

nghien cu ac xac nh.

* Tong thebophan: latong thechbao gom mot son v thuoc pham vi

hien tng nghien cu ac xac nh.

Tong thethong kecothelahu han, cung cothelavohan (khong thehoackhoxac nh c son vnh tong thetres sinh, tong thesan pham do mot loai

may san x uat ra...) . Cho nen khi xac nh tong thethong kekhong nhng phai gii

han vethc the(tong thelatong theg), macon phai gii han vethi gian vakhong

gian (tong theton tai thi gian nao, khong gian nao)



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Chng 1. Nhap mon thong kehoc

14

Cau hoi on tap chng 1

1) Hay gi ai thch ngan gon tai sao noi: Thong kehoc lamot mon khoa hoc xahoi,

nonghien cu mat lng trong sl ien hechat chevi mat chat cua cac hien tng

kinh texahoi soln trong i eu k ien thi gian vaa iem cuthe.

2) So sanh sgi ong vakhac nhau gia quy luat soln vatnh quy luat thong ke.

3) Phan biet tieu thc solng vatieu thc thuoc tnh, moi loai cho 3 v du.

4) So sanh sgiong vakhac nhau gia tieu thc vachtieu.

5) Cac chtieu sau chtieu nao l achtieu khoi lng:

a. nang suat lao ong bnh quan mot cong nhan

b. Solao ong bnh quan t rong kycua doanh nghi ep

c. Giaban mot n vsan pham.

6) Trong cac chtieu sau, chtieu nao lachtieu chat lng:

a. Solao ong bnh quan t rong kycua doanh nghi ep

b. Solng san pham san xuat ra trong doanh nghi ep

c. Tong songuyen l ieu atieu hao cho san xuat doanh nghi ep

d. Nang suat lao ong bnh quan mot cong nhan



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Chng 2. Quatrnh nghien cu thong ke

Trang 15

Chng 2 QUA TRNH NGHIEN CU THONG KE

M uc ch ng dung thong ketrong thc tien lanham motas ton tai hien

tng, t m hieu nhng moi l ien henoi tai , nhng nhan totac ong en hien tng xu

hng phat trien hien tng... bang cac phng phap khac nhau etorut ra

nhng nhan xet, ket luan veban chat hien tng l am c scho viec era cac chnh

sach, bien phap tochc, quan lyhien tng.

oi tng cua thong kethng lahien tng phc tap, nen nghien cu thong

kethng phai trai qua mot quatrnh bao gom nhieu gi ai oan: i eu tra thong ke,

tong hp thong ke, phan tch thong kevadoan. Nhu cau thong tin cho phan tch

vadoan quyet nh en thu thap vaxlythong tin. Bi vay, trong thc tetrc

khi tien hanh thu thap thong tin ngi ta phai dkien mot danh muc hethong chtieu thong ke, nham ap ng nhu cau thong tin cho phan t ch v adoan.

2.1. HETHONG CH TIEU THONG KE

2.1.1. K hai niem hethong chtieu thong ke(goi tat lahethong chtieu)

Hethong chtieu lamot tap hp nhieu chtieu comoi l ien helan nhau vabo

sung cho nhau, nham phan anh cac mat, cac t nh chat quan trong nhat, cac moi l ien

hec ban gi a cac mat, cua tong thevamoi l ien hec ban cua tong thevi cac

hien tng l ien quan.

2.1.2.Nguyen tac xay dng hethong chtieu thong ke

Cac hien tng mathong kenghien cu rat phc tap. ephan anh chnh x ac

chung, can phai xay dng mot hethong chtieu thong kevi cac nguyen tac sau:

1- Hethong chtieu thong kephai phuc vucho muc ch nghien cu.

2- Hien tng cang phc tap nhat lacac hien tng tru tng, solng ch

tieu can nhi eu hn so vi cac hien tng n gian.

3- ethc hien thu thap thong tin, chcan ieu tra cac chtieu san coc s,

nhng can hnh dung trc sochtieu sephai tnh toan nham phuc vu cho v iec apdung cac phng phap phan tch, doan cac bc sau.

4- Tiet kiem chi ph, khong emot chtieu nao d tha, khong hp l ytrong

hethong.



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2.2. IEU TRA THONG K E

2.2.1. KHAI NIEM , YNGHA NHIEM VU.

2.2.1.1. Khai niem:

ieu tra thong kelatochc mot cach khoa hoc vatheo mot kehoach thong

nhat viec thu thap, ghi chep nguon tai l ieu ban au vecac hien tng vaquatrnh

kinh texahoi.

ay lagiai oan au tien cua quatrnh nghien cu thong ke, nhiem vuchu

yeu lathu thap, ghi chep nguon tai l ieu ban au elam can ccho viec tong hp va

phan tch thong ke, tuy theo muc ch nghien cu macac tai l ieu nay seconoi dung

khac nhau vasec thu thap bang cac phng phap khac nhau.

V du: Nghien cu tnh hnh dan socanc vi cac ac iem vec cau tuoi

tac, dan toc, gii tnh... thong kecan thu thap tai l ieu vetng ngi dan theo cactieu thc: tuoi , gii tnh, dan toc... hoac nghien cu vetnh hnh san xuat cua x

nghiep th can thu thap tai l ieu ban au phat sinh tai moi x nghiep: khoi lng san

pham san xuat ra hang ngay, doanh thu, solng nguyen vat l ieu tieu thu...

2.2.1.2. Yngha:

Tai l ieu do i eu tra thong kecung cap selac senghien cu vaphan tch

cac hoat ong san xuat cua x nghiep, l am c sexay dng kehoach, quan lyqua

trnh thc hien k ehoach trong tng c s, tng x nghiep cung nh trong toan bo

nen kinh tequoc dan.2.2.1.3. Yeu cau:

Ket quacua ieu tra thong k eseanh hng t rc tiep en chat lng cua qua

trnh tong hp vaphan t ch thong ke, do oieu tra thong kephai am bao lam tot 3

yeu cau:

- Chnh xac: cac sol ieu ieu tra phai trung thc, khach quan, sat v i tnh hnh

thc te. ay layeu cau c ban nhat cua ieu tra thong ke, tai l ieu ieu tra chnh xac

mi cothelacan ctin cay cho v iec tnh toan phan t ch varut ra ket luan ung an.

Ngc l ai , tai l ieu ieu tra b them bt tuy tien sedan en nhng ket luan khong

chnh xac, olamot trong nhng nguyen nhan khong ay manh c san xuat,

khong k hai thac c cac tiem lc k inh temacon cothegay roi loan trong quan ly

kinh te.



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- Kp thi: ieu tra thong kephai nhay ben v i tnh hnh, thu thap vaphan

anh ung luc cac tai l ieu can nghien cu. Trong ieu kien nen kinh tenc ta hien

nay thng xuyen conhng bien ong rat ln, rat nhanh nen yeu cau ieu tra kp

thi lai cang coyngha.

- ay u: tai l ieu ieu tra phai c thu thap ung noi dung ieu tra aquinh, khong bosot mot muc nao hoac n vnao makehoach avach ra, conh

vay mi cothetranh c nhng ket luan, phiem dien, chuquan.

Trong ieu tra thong ke, ephan anh ung an ban chat cua hien tng

nghien cu ta phai da tren c squan sat soln, ngha lacung mot luc ghi chep tai

l ieu cua nhieu n vhoac nhieu hi en tng cabi et, conh vay khi tong hp tai l ieu

cac nhan tongau nhien mi c butrvaban chat hien tng mi c boc l oro

ret. ay laphng phap c ban cua ieu t ra thong ke.

2.2.2.NOI DUNG KEHOA CH IEU TRA THONG KE.

2.2.2.1. Xac nh muc ch nhiem vucua cong tac ieu tra thong ke:

Xac nh rotrong tam cua cuoc ieu tra nay lacan tm hieu nhng van eg?

neu muc ch khong xac nh rorang sedan en tnh trang thu thap solieu khong

ay uhoac thu thap canhng solieu khong can thi et, lac hau.

2.2.2.2. Xac nh oi tng i eu tra, n v i eu tra:

- X ac nh oi tng ieu tra l axac nh tong thevapham vi can ieu tra.

- X ac nh n vieu tra l axac nh nhng n vcuthecan phai c ieutra trong oi tng quan sat.

2.2.2.3. Noi dung i eu tra:

Ngha l achon cac t ieu thc ieu tra, khi la chon tieu thc ieu tra can am

bao cac yeu cau sau:

- Tieu thc ieu tra phai phuhp vi muc ch vanhiem vu cong tac nghien

cu thong ke.

- Phai phan anh c nhng ac iem c ban, quan trong nhat cua oi tngnghien cu.

- Phai thong nhat vi chtieu kehoach.

- Chon cac t ieu thc colien quan ekiem tra lan nhau.



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2.2.2.4. Xac nh thi gian vaa iem i eu tra:

- Thi gian ieu tra lakhoang thi gian tkhi bat au ang kythu thap so

lieu cho en khi ket thuc ieu tra.

- a iem ieu tra: thng lani di en ra hien tng can nghi en cu.

2.2.2.5. Lap bi eu ieu tra hng dan cach ghi:

Bieu i eu tra l abang hng dan ghi nhng muc can thi et eieu tra, bao

gom cac cot coghi cac tieu thc ieu tra vacac cau hoi en vieu tra trali.

V du: B ieu i eu tra (qua th, th ien t, FA X) etm hieu ykien khach

hang vechat lng dch vuien thoai di ong: (X em mau phieu ieu t ra phan phu

luc)

2.2.2.6. K ehoach ti en hanh:

Botr lc lng ieu tra vachon phng phap2.2.3.CA C L OA I IEU TRA THONG KE

* Can ctheo t nh chat l ien tuc cua v iec ang kyghi chep tai l ieu ban au,

ngi ta phan biet:

- ieu tra thng xuy en: ghi chep thu thap tai l ieu ban au cua hien tng

mot cach l ien tuc gan l ien vi quatrnh phat si nh, phat t rien cua hien tng.

V du: ieu tra quatrnh san xuat cua mot x nghiep, phai ghi chep mot cac

lien tuc socong nhan i lam hang ngay, sosan pham san xuat ra, sodoanh thu. Tai

l ieu ieu tra thng xuyen lac schuyeu elap bao cao thong kenh ky, la

cong cutheo doi tnh hnh thc hi en kehoach.

- ieu tra thong kekhong thng xuyen: ghi chep, thu thap tai l ieu ban au

mot cac khong lien tuc, tai l ieu ieu tra chphan anh trang thai cua hien tng

mot thi iem nhat nh.

V du: Cac cuoc ieu tra dan so, ieu tra ton kho vat t.

* Can ctheo pham vi oi tng c ieu tra thc te, ngi ta phan biet:

- ieu tra toan bo: tien hanh thu thap tai l ieu ban au tren toan thecac n vthuoc oi tng ieu tra.

- ieu tra toan bocotac dung rat ln, giup ta nam c tnh hnh tat cacac

n v, l am c scho v iec lap kehoach vakiem tra thc hien kehoach. Loai ieu

tra nay copham vi ng dung rat han chev nhi eu ton kem.



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- ieu tra khong toan bo: latien hanh thu thap tai l ieu ban au tren mot so

n vc chon ra trong oi tng ieu tra. Loai i eu t ra nay c ap dung trong

nhng trng hp khong thehoac khong can thiet phai tien hanh ieu t ra toan bo.

V du: i eu t ra vei song, v etnh hnh giacathtrng tdo... ay lahnh

thc ieu tra c ap dung nhieu trong thc te. V noconhng u iem: nhanh, gon,tiet kiem c nhieu tien cua, cong sc, phuhp vi ieu kien thc tenc ta hien

nay, ngoai ra do pham v i i eu tra c thu hep nen ta cothei sau vao nghien cu

chi ti et cua hien tng.

Trong thc tien thong ke, thng ap dung cac l oai i eu tra khong toan bosau:

- ieu tra chon mau (i en hnh): chon ra mot son vnhat nh thuoc tong

thenghien cu etien hanh i eu tra thc te, sau odung cac ket quathu thap c

etnh toan vasuy rong thanh cac ac iem cua toan botong the.

- ieu t ra trong iem: loai i eu tra chtien hanh bophan chuyeu nhat

trong toan botong thenghien cu thng lanhng bophan chiem tytrong ln trong

tong the.

- ieu tra chuyen e(ieu tra n vcabiet) chtien hanh tren mot sorat t

n v cabiet thuoc tong thenghi en cu, nhng i sau nghien cu chi tiet nhieu

kha canh khac nhau cua n vo. Hnh thc nay thng c ng dung enghien

cu k inh nghi em cua cac n vtien tien hoac phan tch nguyen nhan cua cac n v

lac hau.2.2.4.HAI HNH THC TOCHC IEU TRA THONG K E.

2.2.4.1. Bao cao thong kenh ky:

Lahnh thc tochc ieu tra thong kethng xuyen, nh kytheo noi dung,

phng phap, cheobao cao aqui nh thong nhat.

Bao cao thong kenh kyconoi dung bao gom nhng chtieu c ban v ehoat

ong san xuat valien quan chat cheen viec thc hien kehoach nhanc. Can c

vao nguon tai l ieu nay, cap tren cothethng xuyen vakp thi chao nghiep vu

oi vi cap di, giam sat vakiem tra tnh hnh thc hien kehoach, phat hien cac

khau yeu vahien tng mat can oi trong toan boday chuyen san xuat, tong hp

tnh hnh chung, so sanh oi chieu gia cac n v, phan tch van evarut ra nhng

ket luan thong kecan thiet.

V du:



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Xem mau bao cao thong kesan lng doanh thu bu chnh vien thong danh

cho n vbu i en bao cho cho Cuc thong kehang qu (nam) phan phuluc.

2.2.4.2. ieu tra chuyen mon:

Lahnh thc tochc ieu tra khong thng xuyen, c t ien hanh theo ke

hoach vaphng phap qui nh ri eng cho moi lan i eu tra. oi tng chuyeu cuanolacac hien tng mabao cao thong kenh kycha hoac khong thng xuyen

phan anh c, olacac hien tng tuy cobien ong nhng cham vakhong ln

lam, cac hien tng ngoai kehoach hoac khong dkien trc c trong kehoach

(tnh hnh giacath trng tdo), t nh hnh chat lng san pham hoac mot sohien

tng bat thng anh hng en i song ( thien tai , tai nan l ao ong ...)

2.2.5.CA C PHNG PHAP THU THAP TA I L IEU BAN AU.

2.2.5.1. ang kytrc tiep:

Nhan vien ieu tra t iep xuc vi oi tng i eu tra, trc tiep tien hanh va

gi am sat viec can, ong o, em vaghi sol ieu vao phieu ieu tra.

2.2.5.2. Phong van:

Thu thap tai l ieu qua s trali cua ngi hoac n vc ieu tra. Cocac

phng phap sau:

- Cphai vien en tan a iem ieu tra: Laphng phap thu thap tai l ieu

c thc hien bang cach c nhan vien ieu tra en tan a iem ieu tra, gap

ngi can ieu tra, at cau hoi nghe trali vatghi chep lai.

- Tghi bao: hng dan cac n vc ieu tra tghi chep.

- Trao oi van k ien, tai l ieu ieu tra thong qua bu ien. (Phng phap gi

th)

2.2.5.3. ang kyqua chng tsosach:

Thu thap tai l ieu theo cac chng tsosach ac ghi chep mot cach cohe

thong c s, cac n vkinh te.

2.2.6.CAC SA I SOTRON G IEU TRA THONG K EVABIEN PHAP K HA CPHUC.

Sai sotrong ieu tra thong kelachenh l ech gia cac trsocua tieu thc ieu

tra mathong kethu thap c so vi tr sothc tecua hien tng nghien cu. Cac

sai sonay selam giam chat lng ieu tra, anh hng en chat lng cua tong hp



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vaphan tch thong ke, do ota phai nam c cac nguyen nhan phat sinh sai soe

cobien phap khac phuc hoac han chesai so.

- Sai soang ky: phat sinh do viec ghi chep tai l ieu ban au k hong chnh xac,

do nhan v ien ieu tra votnh hay coyghi chep sai sthc.

- Sai sodo tnh chat ai bi eu: chxay ra trong mot socuoc i eu tra khongtoan bo, do viec l a chon son vi eu tra khong utnh chat ai bieu.

ehan chenhng sai sotren cotheap dung mot sobien phap sau:

- Lam tot cong tac chuan b ieu tra (botuc them nghiep vu cho nhan v ien

ieu t ra, lap kehoach ieu t ra).

- K iem tra cohethong toan bocuoc i eu tra (vemat logic, vemat tnh toan).

2.3. TONG H P THONG K E

2.3.1. KHAI NIEM YNGHA.2.3.1.1. Khai niem:

Tong hp thong kelas tap trung, chnh lyvahethong hoamot cach khoa

hoc cac tai l ieu ban au thu thap c trong i eu tra thong ke.

Sau khi ta thu thap c nhng tai l ieu vetieu thc ieu tra qua giai oan

ieu tra thong keth nhng tai l ieu nay con ri rac, vun vat, cha thesdung c

vao cong tac nghien cu vaphan tch thong ke. ebc au neu len mot soac

trng chung cua toan botong the, ta setien hanh gi ai oan 2 cua quatrnh nghien

cu thong keolagi ai oan tong hp thong ke.

2.3.1.2. Yngha:

Tong hp thong kekhong phai chlamot cong tac kythuat esap xep coth

tcac tai l ieu ban au hoac chdung may tnh etnh toan cac con socong vatong

cong, matrai lai ay lamot cong tac khoa hoc phc tap, chuyeu da vao sphan

tch lyluan mot cach sau sac. Neu chung ta cosolieu mot cach phong phuchnh

xac nhng chung ta khong tong hp c mot chach khoa hoc th khong bao gi

chung ta coc mot ket luan ung an, khong thegiai thch c that khach quan,chan thc hien tng xahoi .

2.3.1.3. Nhng v an ec ban cua tong hp thong ke.

a. Xac nh muc ch tong hp:



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M uc ch tong hp l alam thenao ecothekhai quat hoanhng ac trng

chung cua tong thevaac trng chung oc bieu hien cu thebang cac chtieu

thong ke

b. Noi dung tong hp:

Noi dung tong hp c can cvao mot trong nhng t ieu thc ac xacnh trong giai oan i eu tra. Tong hp theo noi dung nao phai xuat phat tmuc

ch nghien cu thong ke.

c. K iem tra tai l ieu trc khi tong hp.

Trc khi tong hp can phai kiem tra lai tai lieu vemat logi c, so sanh cac tai

l ieu, kiem tra vemat tnh toan vaohp lycua tai l ieu, phat hien cac bat thng e

tham tra l ai . Lam tot khau nay sehan chec nhieu sai trong khau tong hp va

phan tch thong kemacung khong mat nhieu thi gian.

d. Phng phap tong hp: sdung phng phap phan tothong ke.

e. T ochc vakythuat tong hp:

- Chuan btai l ieu etong hp: tap trung ay ucac phieu ieu tra, tien hanh

mahoanhng noi dung trali eviec tong hp c thuan li .

- Hnh thc tochc cothetien hanh tng cap hoac tap trung.

- K ythuat tong hp thucong hoac bang may.

2.3.1.4. Bang thong kevaoththong ke:

* Bang thong ke:

a. yngha vatac dung:

- Bang thong kelamot hnh thc trnh bay cac tai l ieu thong kemot cach co

hethong, hp lyvarorang nham neu len cac ac trng velng cua hien tng

nghien cu.

- Bang thong kegiup ta tong hp, phan tch v anhan nh chung vehi en

tng nghien cu.

b. Cau tao chung cua bang thong ke:

- V enoi dung: gom chue, phan gi ai thch vanguon sol ieu.

c. Cac l oai bang thong ke:

+ Bang n gian:

Labang trong ophan chuechliet kecac n v , bophan cua tong the.



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V du:

BANG THONG K ETRA NG THIET BBU CHNH NAM 1999

Bang 2.1.

TT Ten n v Bu cuc Can ien

t

M ay in

cc

M ay xoa

tem

M ay buoc

tui

1

2

3

4

5

6

78

M ien ong Bac

M ien Tay Bac

. bang song Hong

Bac Trung bo

D. hai Nam T . bo

Tay Nguyen

ong Nam bo. bang song C. Long

434

96

594

838

311

115

506546

323

83

528

278

357

120

690594

102

22

192

86

134

43

451190

13

2

19

6

9

4

4514

1

0

9

2

9

3

162

Cong canc 3.440 2.973 1.220 112 42

+ Bang phan to:

Trong ooi tng nghien cu ghi trong phan chuec chi a thanh cac to

theo mot tieu thc nao o.

V du: Tong cong ty X xep l oai cac chi nhanh cong ty cua mnh theo doanh

thu trong nam 2000 nh sau:

Bang 2.2.

Phan tocac chi nhanh theo

doanh thu (t yong)

Sochi nhanh

Di 5 ty

T5 en 10

10 en 15

15 en 20

20 en 2525 en 30

tren 30 ty

2

4

3

10

76

3

Cong 35

+ Bang ket hp:



24/168


Trang 24

Laloai bang trong ooi tng nghien cu ghi phan chuec phan to

theo hai ba tieu thc ket hp vi nhau.

V du:

Cosolieu thong kevenghenghiep, gi i tnh, vatrnh ohoc van tai Hoc

vien X nh sau:

Bang 2.3.

Chia theo trnh oNghenghiep vagii

tnh

Songi

C H Th.S TS

1. Giao v ien:

- Nam

- N.

2. Cong nhan vien:

- Nam

- N

200

120

80

150

70

80

0

0

40

10

100

. . .

60

. . .

Cong

d. Nhng yeu cau trong v iec xay dng bang thong ke:

- Quy mobang khong nen qualn ( tc lakhong nen phan toket hp nhieu

tieu thc vaquanhieu chtieu)

- Cac tieu evatieu muc can c ghi chnh xac, ngan gon, dehieu.

- Cac hang vacot nen kyhieu bang chhoac bang soethuan li cho v iec

trnh bay hoac giai thch noi dung.

- Cac chtieu can c sap xep mot cach hp ly.

- Phan ghi chucuoi bang dung enoi ronguon tai l ieu hoac giai thch noi

dung mot sochtieu.

* Cac qui c thng dung trong bang thong k e:

- K hong cosolieu: trong oghi (-)- Sol ieu con thi eu: ba cham (...)

- Hien tng khong l ien quan: (x )

* oththong ke:

a. Khai niem:



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Trang 25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14001600

1800

Somayien thoai

1994 1995 1996 1997

Nam

oth thong kelaphng phap dung cac hnh vehoac ng net hnh hoc

vi cac mau sac thch hp etrnh bay ac trng vecac mat lng cua hien

tng kinh texahoi.

V du: Cosol ieu vesomay ien thoai thuebao nc ta nh sau (n v

tnh: 1000 may)1994 1995 1996 1997

470 766 1166 1716

Ta cothedung othebieu di en tnh hnh phat tri en cua may ien thoai

thuebao:

Vi cung mot goc vacung vacung lerong, cac chieu cao khac nhau cua cot

giup ta nhan thc vetnh hnh phat trien cua hien tng nghien cu- Hnh vetren: Bi eu othong ke

- Phng phap dung hnh veemotahien trang qua cac solieu thong ke:

goi laphng phap oththong ke.

ac iem cua oththong ke:

- Bang thong kechliet kesolieu.

- othsdung solieu ket hp vi hnh ve, ong net vamau sac thch

hp emotaac trng vemat lng cua hien tng.- oth thong kechtrnh bay mot cach khai quat cac ac iem chuyeu

cua hi en tng. Tuy nhien cac ac trng vaxu hng cua hien tng

nghi en cu thng c dethay hn neu khong chesol ieu trong bang

thong kemacon c trnh bay bang oththong ke. V du: ethay xu

hng chia sesan lng ien thoai PSTN cua VNPT tkhi ien thoai



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Trang 26

VOIP 178 cua V iettel xuat hien, ta nhn vao oth serohn l anhn vao

bang solieu thong ke.

Bang 2.4.

San lng ien thoai hai chieu TPHCM H anoi

VT: T rieu phut

Thang/nam 11/00 12/00 1/01 2/01 3/01 4/01 5/01 6/01 7/01 8/01 9/01 10/01

Cong 5,24 5,31 5,15 4,86 5,52 5,16 5,54 5,34 5,92 6,17 6,12 6,20

PSTN 3,34 3,33 3,31 3,06 3,45 3,12 3,24 2,98 2,88 2,86 3,11 2,30

178 1,89 1,98 1,84 1,79 2,07 2,04 2,29 2,37 2,22 2,18 1,72 1,90

171 0,82 1,13 1,29 1,30

177 0,70

Ghi chu:PSTN Dch vuien thoai ng dai goi qua mang PSTN theo phng thc truyen

thong.

Dch vu 178, 171, 177 - Dch vuien thoai VOIP (Voice over i nternet protocol)

Sol ieu t rong bang sec trnh bay trong othsau:

Q

Quy tac xay dng oththong ke:

San l ng ien t hoai 2 ch ieu H CM - H N

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Trieu

phut

Tong cong PSTN 178 171 177



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Trang 27

oth thong kephai am bao yeu cau chnh xac dexem dehi eu, ngoai ra

con phai thehien tnh tham mycua no.

Cac loai oththong ke:

-Bieu ohnh thanh

- Bieu ohnh tron.

- othng gap khuc

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

A B C D

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6



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Trang 28

.

2.4. PHAN TCH THONG K E

2.4.1. KHAI NIEM YNGHA NHIEM VU.

Phan tch thong kelathong qua cac bieu hien bang solng, neu len mot

cach tong hp ban chat vatnh qui luat cua cac hien tng vaquatrnh kinh texa

hoi trong ieu k ien thi gian vaa iem cuthe.

Phan tch thong kel ien hemat thi et vi cac giai oan ieu tra vatong hp

thong k e, chcoda tren c stai l ieu ieu tra phong phu, chnh xac, ket quatong

hp mot cach khoa hoc th phan tch thong kemi cokhanang rut ra nhng k et luan

ung an, neu khong, duphng phap phan tch cokhoa hoc, hi en ai nh thenao,

ket quacung seb han che, tham ch khong cogiatrvacon cothexuyen tac s

that.

Nhiem vucua phan tch thong k enoi chung nhat tr vi nhiem vucua toan bo

quatrnh nghi en cu thong ke, bieu hien cuthe2 nhiem vusau:

- Phan tch tnh hnh thc hien kehoach: trong phan t ch can neu romc o

hoan thanh kehoach, cac nguyen nhan vaanh hng cua cac nguyen nhan oi vi

viec hoan thanh hoac khong hoan thanh kehoach, tnh can oi cua viec thc hien

ket hoachong thi con phai k iem tra t nh thc tecua cac chtieu kehoach lam c

serut ra nhng u nhc iem trong cong tac l ap vachao thc hien kehoach.

- Phan tch tnh qui luat cua cac hien tng vaquatrnh kinh texahoi: oi

vi nhiem vunay can xac nh cac ac trng vemat lng cua hien tng nh: qui

mo, khoi lng, ket cau, quan hetlexac nh xu hng vanhp ophat trien cuahien tng, sbien ong cua hi en tng, moi l ien hegia cac hien tng tnh chat

cua moi l ien he, anh giatrnh ochat checua moi l ien helam c scho viec rut

ra nhng k et luan thong kehoac d bao tnh qui luat cua hien tng vaquatrnh

kinh texahoi.



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Hai nhiem v unay cua phan tch thong kecolien hemat thiet vakhong tach

ri nhau trong moi trng hp phan tch thong ke. Trc khi tien hanh phan tch,

phai lay ecng phan tch, trong oneu romuc ch (nhiem vu) phan tch, noi

dung phan tch, cong tac k iem tra, anh giatai l ieu dung phan tch, cac chtieu va

phng phap phan tch, sau khi phan tch phai lap bao cao phan tch, trong oneucac sol ieu can thiet, cac li bnh luan vacac kien nghcuthe

2.4.2.CAC NGU YEN TAC C BAN CUA PHAN TCH THONG K E.

eam bao tnh chnh xac vakhach quan cua cac ket luan rut ra, khi phan

tch thong k ephai da tren c skhoa hoc c thehien thanh 3 nguyen tac c ban

sau:

- Phan tch thong kephai tien hanh tren c sphan tch lyluan kinh texa

hoi . ay languyen tac cotnh quyet nh oi vi chat lng cua phan tch thong ke,

bi v trong nghien cu cac hien tng kinh texahoi , thong k easdung rat nh ieu

cac phng phap vacac chtieu enoi len bieu hien cuthecua qui luat phat trien

cua cac hien tng o, muon ap dung cac phng phap phan tch mot cach khoa

hoc, muon xac nh cac chtieu mot cach chnh xac vamuon noi len c noi dung

kinh texahoi cua cac solieu thong keth phan t ch thong kephai da tren c s

phan tch sau sac vatoan dien ban chat vaqui luat phat trien cua hien tng, phai

nghien cu cac tai l ieu con sotrong s quan hemat thiet vi tnh hnh kinh texa

hoi , ieu ooi hoi ngi lam cong tac nghien cu thong kephai coshi eu bi et ve

xahoi mot cach thc te, ay uvasau sac, bi v thc ra ban than cac solieu thong

kethng khong phan anh c ay u, thc terat phong phuvanhieu khi rat phc

tap.

- Phan tch thong kephai can cvao toan bosthat vaphan tch trong sl ien

herang buoc lan nhau gia cac hien tng: ta biet rang cac hien tng kinh texa

hoi rat phc tap, a dang vakhong ngng bien ong theo khong gian vathi gi an,

sbieu hien vabien ong nay bao gi cung phuthuoc vao nhng moi l ien henhat

nh, nochu stac ong cua nhng ieu kien vanhng nhan tocu the. Do okhi

phan tch thong kekhong c colap hien tng ra enghien cu matat yeu phai

nghien cu trong s rang buoc vaanh hng lan nhau gi a cac hien tng, ong

thi phai xuat phat tmot sorat ln s that, khong c tuy tien chon ra mot vai

hien tng hay s that cabiet ephan tch varut ra ket luan v nh thesededan



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en nhng ket luan phien dien, chuquan, khong coc skhoa hoc vado osethieu

tnh chat thuyet phuc.

- Khi phan tch thong kephai tuy theo tnh chat vahnh thc phat trien khac

nhau cua cac hien tng maap dung l inh hoat cac phng phap khac nhau: thong ke

hoc van dung rat nhieu phng phap eap ng yeu cau cua phan tch thong ke,moi phng phap eu cotac dung vayngha rieng nen khong themay moc ap dung

phng phap nay hay phng phap khac cho moi hien tng hay trong moi trng

hp c maphai tuytheo tnh chat, hnh thc phat trien cua hien tng maap dung

thay oi, ket hp cac phng phap mot cach l inh hoat nham neu len mot cach ung

an nhat ban chat vatnh quy luat cua hien tng. M at khac, t rong nhng giai oan

lch skhac nhau, di cheoxahoi khac nhau cang oi hoi phai ap dung cac

phng phap phan tch khac nhau.

2.4.3. CA C V AN ECHUYEU KHI TIEN HANH PHAN TCH THONG K E.

2.4.3.1. Xac nh nhiem vucuthecua phan tch thong k e.

Ngha laphai xac nh muc ch yeu cau, nhng van ecan khi tien hanh

phan tch mi cothequyet nh c can thu thap nhng tai l ieu nao, thu thap t

au, chon chtieu nao ephan tch vaphan tch bang nhng phng phap nao. Thc

ra ethoaman c yeu cau cua quatrnh nghien cu thong keth nhiem vu cua

phan tch thong keac xac nh ngay tkhi at kehoach i eu tra vatong hp

v conh vay cac tai l ieu ieu tra, tong hp mi thoaman c yeu cau cua phan

tch, tuy vay khi bc vao giai oan phan tch van can nhac lai vacu thehoahn

na nhiem vucua phan tch, trong khi phan tch phai xoay quanh nhiem vu era,

tranh c v iec t nh toan l an man nhng chtieu khong can thi et, lam mat thi gian

makhong at hieu qua.

2.4.3.2. La chon anh giatai l ieu dung ephan tch.

Trong thc temuon t ien hanh phan tch thong kephai dung mot khoi lng

rat ln cac tai l ieu, cac tai l ieu nay c thu thap trat nhieu nguon khac nhau cho

nen trc khi sdung can cosla chon vaanh giatai l ieu mot cach ay u. K hianh giatai l ieu cuthe, phai xem xet cac mat sau:

- Tai l ieu thu thap coam bao chnh xac, ay u, kp thi, phng phap thu

thap cokhoa hoc khong?



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- T nh khoa hoc vaviec ap ng muc ch nghien cu cua s chnh lyva

phan tocua tai l ieu.

- Phng phap tnh toan cac chi tiet, cac phng phap nay conhat quan vi

cac phng phap cua thong kekhong?

- Khi anh giacac tai l ieu thu thap bang i eu tra khong toan bo(i eu trachon mau) th can chuyen tnh ai di en cua son vc chon eieu tra thc

te.

V iec la chon, anh gi atai l ieu dung ephan tch lacong viec quan trong,

rat can thiet eam bao tnh chnh xac vasc thuy et phuc cua cac ket luan thong

ke.

2.4.3.3. Xac nh cac phng phap vacac chtieu phan tch.

Thong kehoc van dung nhi eu phng phap khac nhau trong phan tch, moiphng phap comot tac dung rieng, do otrong phan tch, tuy theo nhiem vu

nghien cu, tuy theo tnh chat vaac iem cua hien tng nghien cu masdung

cac phng phap phan tch khac nhau cho cac hi en tng khac nhau sao cho tac

dung cua tng phng phap phat huy c mot cach ay unhat.

Van exac nh chtieu phan tch cung lavan ekhong kem quan trong v

bieu hien cuoi cung cua ban chat vetnh qui luat cua hien tng lacac chtieu va

solieu thong ke, do otrong phan tch can da vao muc ch v anhi em vuphan tch

maxac nh chtieu phan tch, khi la chon, xac nh can lu y:- Cac chtieu phai lanhng chtieu quan trong nhat cothephan anh ung

an vatap trung nhat nhng ac iem, tnh chat, cac moi l ien hec ban cua hien

tng.

- Cac chtieu can cosl ien hevi nhau, da vao cac phng tr nh kinh tee

xac nh hethong chtieu nham phan tch c sau sac vatoan dien hien tng

nghien cu.

2.4.3.4. So sanh oi chieu cac chti eu.

M oi chtieu thong kechphan anh mot mat nao o cua hien tng nghien

cu, do okhi phan tch thong kecan so sanh, oi chieu cac chtieu vi nhau. Qua

so sanh oi chieu mi cothethay roc cac ac iem vaban chat cua hien tng

nghien cu, mi phat hien c nhi eu van ecoyngha, vach roc nguyen nhan



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phat trien cua hien tng, cac van eton tai , cac khanang tiem tang trong noi bo

hien tngtomi cotherut ra c nhng ket l uan sau sac, chnh x ac.

V du: khi phan tch tnh hnh san xuat mot x nghiep bu ien trong thang

nao o, rorang ta phai tien hanh so sanh oi chieu san lng thc tethang nay vi

san l ng thc thethang trc, nhng neu chso sanh nh theth cha u, cha thethay roc san xuat cua x nghiep nh vay latot hay xau, bi v san lng cua x

nghiep bu ien thng bi en ong do nhieu nhu cau khach quan, cothesan lng

cua thang nay so vi thang trc tang rat cao nhng tnh hnh san xuat thc tela

khong phat trien do oeconhng k et luan sau sac vatoan dien ta con can so sanh

vi cac chtieu venang suat lao ong, chat lng san pham

Trong so sanh oi chieu can lu yphai am bao tnh chat cotheso sanh c

gia cac chtieu thong ke. Neu cac chtieu khong coay utnh chat so sanh th

can phai tien hanh ieu chnh, tnh toan lai lam cho chung trthanh so sanh oc.

2.4.3.5. Rut ra ket luan vaexuat kien ngh.

ay lasthehien tap trung thanh quacua toan bocong tac nghien cu thong

kebi v phan tch thong kecuoi cung phai i ti ket luan chnh xac vakhoa hoc ve

ban chat vatnh qui luat cua hien tng, ong thi phai cothedoan c mc o

phat tri en cua hien tng v aera c nhng kien nghthc te.

Nhng ket luan rut ra phai chnh xac vacocan ckhoa hoc, tuyet oi tranh

nhng ket luan rut ra tssuy oan chuquan. Cac kien nghexuat phai nham giaiquyet cac van ethuc ay sphat trien hp vi qui luat cua hien tng, nham tang

cng cai tien quan ly, ong thi nhng k ien ngh, exuat nay phai coyngha thiet

thc, phuhp vi hoan canh thc tevacac khanang thc hien c.



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Cau hoi on tap chng 2

1) Toi tng nghien cu cua thong kehoc, hay giai thch tai sao quatrnh nghien

cu thong ke(TK) gom ba giai oan: ieu tra TK , tong hp T K vaphan tch TK .

2) Neu cac phng phap c ban c sdung t rong quatrnh nghien cu thong k e.

3) Trnh bay phan loai ieu tra thong ke.

4) Khi ieu tra thong ke, phai am bao nhng yeu cau g? Tai sao?

5) Hay lap phi eu ieu tra thch hp cho mot cuoc ieu tra lay ykien khach hang ve

mc ohai long mot loai dch vu (san pham) nao o(san pham, dch vuanh cht

chon).

6) Hay exuat nhng bi en phap khac phuc sai sotrong ieu tra thong k e.

7) Cho v duvecac mau bang thong ken gian, phan tovaket hp. Tng ng vi

solieu cua moi bang vecac otheneu bat ac trng cua hien tng ovi otham mytheo ban lacao nhat.

8) Trnh bay cac nguyen tac c ban cua phan tch thong ke.

9) Neu ten cac phng phap phan tch thong keban biet.

* Hay chon cau ung nhat trong cac cau trali cho cac cau hoi sau:

10) Can cvao pham v i ieu tra, i eu tra thong kec chia ra:

a. Thng xuyen vakhong thng xuyen

b. Toan bovakhong toan boc. Chuyen mon vabao cao thong kenh k y

d. Caa, b, c eu ung

11) Tong ieu tra dan solaloai ieu tra:

a. Toan bo

b. Thng xuyen

c. K hong thng xuyen

d. a vac ung



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Chng 3. Phan tothong ke

35

+ Phan tol ien he: Tien hanh sap x ep cac tieu thc nghien cu hoac cac ch

tieu nghien cu vao cac cot, cac dong cua bieu bang thong keetrnh bay noi dung

nghien cu, muc ch nghien cu.

2- Neu theo tnh chat cua tieu thc nghien cu th dung l am 2 loai :+ Phan tophan l oai : Tien hanh phan tooi vi tieu thc thuoc tnh.

+ Phan toket cau: Tien hanh phan tooi vi tieu thc solng.

3.2. PHNG PHAP PH AN TOTHONG KE:

ephan tothong kephai thc hien tuan tcac bc sau ay:

3.2.1. Xac nh tieu thc phan to:

Tieu thc phan tolatieu thc thc thephan anh ban chat cua hien tng phai

phuhp vi muc ch yeu cau quan lyvaphan tch trong tng ieu k ien thi gian vakhong gi an xac nh.

3.2.2. X ac nh sotovaoln cua moi totrong mot tong thephc tap.

3.2.2.1. Trng hp phan ton:

a. oi vi tieu thc thuoc t nh:Sotoc chia phuthuoc vao tnh chat cua l oai hnh vamuc ch nghien

cu.

a.1. Trng hp soloai hnh t (hoac khong nhieu)oi hoi quan l ychat cheth moi loai hnh xep vao mot to.

a.2. T rng hp phc tap: Soloai hnh quanhieu, tm, phc tap, khoquan ly

tien hanh ghep mot soloai hnh cotnh chat giong nhau hoac gan giong nhau vao

mot to.

* Chuy: Trong thc tengi ta thng da vao cac ng loi chutrng

chnh sach cua ang v aNhanc hoac cua cac nganh, bo, a phng aqui nh

di hnh thc van ban chthhay danh muc vvetien hanh xac nh sotoc

chia.

b. oi vi tieu thc solng: Sotoc chia phu thuoc vao tnh chat cua

day solng bien vatrnh oquan l y.

b.1. oi vi day solng bi en ri rac vasbi en thien gia cac lng biet t

oi hoi phai quan lychat chetren tng lng bi en th moi lng bi en xep



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36

vao mot to. Sau khi xac nh c sotocan chia th phai sap xep son v

tong thevao cac totng ng, tc laxac nh solan xuat hien cua tng lng

bien hoac cua tng totrong tng tieu thc phan to.

V du: enghien cu chat lng lao ong cua cong nhan trong mot doanhnghiep ngi ta tien hanh phan totheo tieu thc bac thnh sau:

Bang 3.1

Bac th Socong nhan (ngi)

1

2

3

4

56

7

10

30

100

150

8050

5

TCong toan DN 425

V du2: eanh giatnh hnh thc hien k ehoach hoagia nh mot a phng

ngi ta ti en hanh phan totheo ti eu thc socon trong moi hogi a nh nh sau:

Bang 3.2

Socon trong moi ho

gia nh

Sohogia nh

0

1

2

3

4

100

200

300

50

30

TC toan a phng 680

b.2. oi vi day solng bien ri rac hoac oi vi day solng bien l ien tuc

vasbien thien vemat lng gia cac lng bi en khaln vakhoquan lyth tien

hanh phan tocokhoang cach to: tc l aghep mot solng bien comat chat giong

nhau vao mot totheo nguyen tac lng tch luyen mot mc onao oth chat thay

oi , khi chat thay oi th l ng bien oi theo ehnh thanh tomi .



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38/168


38

- Neu oln gia cac tobang nhau goi laphan toeu, ngc lai goi laphan

tokhong eu. Trong mot toneu chcomot gii han th goi latom, con neu cou2

gii han goi latoong.

Phan toeu c ap dung oi vi tong theong chat vasbien thien vematlng gia cac lng bien tng oi eu an.

Trong phan toeu trsokhoang cac toeu c xac nh bang cong thc nh

sau:

oi vi day solng bi en l ien tuc th trsokhoang cach toeu c xac nh

bang cong thc:

Trong o: -Xmax vaXmin lalng bi en ln nhat valng bi en nhonhat

trong day solng bien cua tieu thc phan to.

- N laqui mocua tong thephc tap hoac son vtong the.

- 1+3,322 lgN = n : lacong thc toan c dung exac nh sotocan chia

mot cach khach quan.

Trong thc teconhieu trng hp sotocan chia (n) c xac nh mot cach

chuquan (an nh san) do oh c tnh n gian nh sau

Sau khi xac nh c h th phai xac nh gii han di vagii han tren cua

mot totheo mot trat tnhat nh tnhoen ln hoac tln en nho. Gii han di

cua tonhonhat chnh bang X min, gii han tren cua tonay bang gii han di cong

vi trsokhoang cach toeu.

Xt = Xd + h

Toth2: Gii han di cua toth2 bang X t = gi i han tren cua tong ke

lien ngay trc.

oi vi day solng bien ri rac th trsokhoang cach toeu c xac nh

bang cong thc nh sau

N

XXh

lg,

minmax

32231 +

=

n

XXh

minmax =



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39

- n lasotocan chia mot cach khach quan hoac chuquan.

- X max vaX min c xac nh gi ong nh oi vi day solng bien l ien tuc,nochkhac choX max vaXmin cua hai tolien nhau phai ghi cach nhau 1 n v.

V du: eanh giasan lng thu hoach lua cua tnh X , ngi ta t ien hanh

ieu tra chon mau exac nh nang suat thu hoach lua bnh quan trong tnh tren so

lieu ieu tra cua 64 xatrong onang suat thu hoach thap nhat l a38ta/ha, cao nhat

la52ta/ha. Biet rang dien tch gi eo trong lua trong toan tnh la2.000ha

Bang 3.4

NSTHbq moi xa

Ta/ha

Soxa

Trung bnh

38 40

40 42

42 44

44 46

46 48

48 50

50 52

4

8

10

17

12

8

5

TC 64 xa 64

Sau khi phan tota tnh nang suat luabnh quan moi xatrong toan tnh roi

nhan v i dien tch luagieo trong catnh setnh c tong san lng thu hoach.V du2: equan l yqui mox nghiep t rong mot nganh san xuat a phng,

ngi ta l a chon tieu thc phan tolasocong nhan vatien hanh ieu tra socongnhan t ren 20 x nghiep cua nganh vi solieu giathiet nh sau:

n

nXXh

)(min)max( 1=

2146432231

3852

==+

= lg,h



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40

Bang 3.5

STT

XN

SoCN

(ngi)

STT

X N

SoCN

(ngi)

STT

XN

SoCN

(ngi)

STT

XN

SoCN

(ngi)

1

2

3

4

5

1200

1304

1800

1670

1400

6

7

8

9

10

1430

1350

1240

1700

1800

11

12

13

14

15

1650

2050

2120

1980

2400

16

17

18

19

20

2883

2540

2760

2300

2130

Giasrang qui mocua x nghiep c phan anh lanho, trung bnh, ln varat

ln

n = 4

Bang 3.6

Loai hnh Qui mo SoCN (ngi) SoX N

NhoVa

Ln

Rat ln

1.200 1.6201.621 2041

2042 2482

2483 2880

66

4

4

TC toan nganh 20

Phan tokhong eu: c ap dung oi vi tong thephc tap khong ong chat.

oln cua moi toc xac nh phuthuoc vao loai hnh vemat chat cua t ieu

thc thuoc tnh colien quanV du: equan l ytnh hnh hoc sinh en trng mot a phng, ngi ta

tien hanh phan totheo tieu thc otuoi en trng nh sau:

Bang 3.7

Loai hnh trng otuoi en trng SoHS

4204

1412002883 =

= )(h



41/168


Trang 41

ao tao L ien tuc

(thang nam)

Ri rac

(nam)

en t rng

NT

M G

Cap 1Cap 2

Cap 3

TH+day nghe

> H

< 3

3 6

6 1111 15

15 18

>18

19

50

500

600550

400

100

Tong cong toan P 2.200

2.2. Phan toket hp

C setien hanh phan toket hp olaphng phap phan ton vakhi ket

hp nhieu tieu thc phan tovi nhau th phai theo mot trat tnhat nh sau ay:

- Tieu thc nao xay ra t rc tien hanh phan totrc vangc lai .

V du: enghien cu moi quan hegia trnh olao ong, nang suat lao ong

vagii tnh cua cong nhan trong mot doanh nghiep ngi ta t ien hanh phan tonh

sau:

(Bang 3.8)

NSL

SP/ngiBac th 15 - 20 21 26 27 32

Tong so

CN cua DN(ngi)Bac 1

- Nam- n

Bac 2- Nam- N

.bac 7

- Nam- N

1037

__

201010302010

.

___403010

.

301317705020

.

Tong cong soCN

2.3. Phan tol ien he: C sephan tol ien helaphng phap xac nh phan

ton vaphan toket hp, sau omi sap xep cac chtieu hoac tieu thc nghien cu



42/168


Trang 42

vao cac cot, cac dong cua bieu bang thong ketong hp theo mot trat t nhat nh

sau ay:

1.- Tieu thc nguyen nhan sap xep trc, tieu thc ket quasap xep sau

2.- Nhng t ieu thc nao comoi quan hegan nhau th phai sap x ep gan nhau.

3.- Tieu thc nao xay ra trc th sap x ep t rc vangc l ai .



43/168


44/168


44

1/ Can c vao nang suat lao ong bnh quan mot cong nhan, hay phan tosocong

nhan tren thanh 4 nhom cokhoang cach toeu. T rong moi nhom hay tnh socong

nhan vasolng san pham.

2/ Can ctheo tieu thc socong nhan, hay phan to20 tolao ong tren thanh 4 nhomcokhoang cach toeu. Trong moi nhom hay tnh sotolao ong, sosan pham san

xuat c.

Bai 2:

Cosolieu vemc thu nhap vasocan bocong nhan vien cua cac bu cuc trong mot

tnh trong nam 2000 nh sau:

So Thu nhap bq

thang

SoL So Thu nhap bq

thang

SoL

TT (tr. /ngi) (ngi ) TT (tr. /ngi) (ngi)

1 1,000 5 11 1,430 14

2 1,125 7 12 1,500 13

3 1,025 8 13 1,480 15

4 1,200 6 14 1,520 16

5 1,118 9 15 1,600 17

6 1,230 10 16 1,400 187 1,300 11 17 1,550 17

8 1,225 13 18 1,580 19

9 1,325 15 19 1,620 20

10 1,564 14 20 1,420 18

Yeu cau:

1/ Can cvao thu nhap bnh quan mot cong nhan, hay phan tocac bu cuc tren

thanh 3 tocokhoang cach toeu (vi n vtnh tien la1.000), trong moi tohaytnh sobu cuc, solao ong vatong thu nhap.

2/ Tng t nh tren nhng phan thanh 4 to.

Cac anh ch conhan xet g vemoi l ien hegia qui mocua bu cuc vi thu nhap

bnh quan cua cong nhan?



45/168

Chng 4. Lng hoa cac hi en tng k inh texahoi

45

Chng 4 L NG HOA HIEN TNG K INH TEX A HOI

(mc onghien cu hien tng kinh texahoi)

4.1. CHTIEU TUY ET OI:

Lachtieu phan anh qui mo, solng ket quahoat ong cua oi tng quan

ly.

M at lng cua chtieu tuyet oi goi lasotuyet oi .

Sotuyet oi conhng ac iem sau ay:

1.- Sotuyet oi c xac nh trong n vtnh lan vhien vat tnhi en,

n vhien vat quy oi van vgiatr.

2.- M oi sotuyet oi c xac nh tai tng thi iem hoac tng thi kycuthe

ephan anh qui mo, khoi lng ket quahoat ong.3.- Gia cac sotuyet oi trong mot hethong quan l ycomoi quan hemat

thiet vi nhau, phuthuoc tac ong anh hng vi nhau.

4.- Sotuyet oi vachtieu tuyet oi c phan anh trong cac bao bao cao

thong keveket quahoat ong, tnh hnh bi en ong von au t.

5.- K hong c dung chtieu tuyet oi eanh giamat chat cua hien tng

vaso sanh gia cac hien tng vi nhau.

6.- Sotuyet oi vachtieu tuyet oi olanhng sol ieu goc can c l u trbao quan can than v nolac sexac nh cac chtieu chat lng khac.

Phan l oai chtieu tuyet oi :

Tuy theo thi gian bieu hien cua sotuyet oi machia lam 2 loai :

4.1.1.Chtieu tuyet oi thi iem:

Phan anh qui mo, solng, thc trang cua hien tng tai tng thi i em nhat

nh trong kynghien cu.

Chtieu tuyet oi thi iem c thehien trong bang can oi ketoan, can

oi tai san, can oi lao ong

* ac iem:

- M at lng cua chtieu tuyet oi thi i em lasotuyet oi thi iem do o

trc vasau thi iem omat lng cothethay oi.



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Chng 4. L ng hoa hien tng kinh texahoi

Trang 46

- Trong tng chtieu tuyet oi thi iem cac sotuyet oi thi iem cua ky

nghien cu k hong thetrc tiep cong lai c vi nhau nhng tai mot thi

iem cac sotuyet oi thi iem cua cac khong gi an khac nhau th cong lai

c vi nhau.

V du: Cosolieu vedan so cua tnh X qua cac nam nh sau:Bang 4.1.

Thi gi an Sodan

01.04.2000 3.050.600

01.04.2001 3.200.202

01.04.2002 3.500.600

Cong? Khong thecong c

- Sotuyet oi thi iem cua tng thi kynghien cu phai lasotuyet oi thi

iem bnh quan cua thi kyo.

4.1.2.Chtieu tuyet oi thi ky:

Phan anh qui mo, solng, ket quahoat ong cua oi tng quan l ytrong

tng thi kynhat nh.

* ac iem: M at lng cua chtieu tuyet oi thi kylasotuyet oi thi ky,

nophan anh quatrnh tch luy cua hien tng trong tng thi kynghien cu.- Cac sotuyet oi thi kycua tng chtieu nghien cu qua tng khoang cach

thi gian t rc t iep cong lai c vi nhau. V du:

Bang 4.2.

Thang Doanh soban (trieu ong)

1

2

3

200

250

300Qui I 750

Chuy: Khi cong phai cung n vt nh. V du:

Bang 4.3.



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Chng 4. L ng hoa hien tng kinh texahoi

Trang 47

Cac loai hang ban VT Lng ban

A

B

C

Tan

Kg

M

100

1000

500TC - K hong cong c

Chtieu tuyet oi thi kyc phan anh trong bang bao cao ket quahoat

ong cua doanh nghiep hoac cua oi tng quan l y.

Phng phap tnh chtieu tuyet oi :

* Cach 1: Phng phap k iem ke: trc t iep can ong, o em tnh toan vekhoi

lng trong l ng ket quahoat ong cua tng n vtong thebang trc quan.

Chuy:

-Phng phap nay thng c ap dung oi vi cac n v tong theboc locua

mot tong thehu han.

- Phng phap kiem kec xac nh mot cach chnh xac ay u, toan dien

trong tong thephc tap.

eam bao tnh chnh xac cua phng phap nay oi hoi phai trung thc

khach quan trong quan l y.

* Cach 2: phng phap can oi: Dung phng trnh kinh tehoac ham kinh te

exac nh mot chtieu tuyet oi nao o.V du:

DSB = DGB x SLB (Doanh soban = n gi aban x solng ban)

LN = DT F T (L i nhuan = Doanh thu chi ph thue)

* Chuy: Hai phng phap comoi quan hemat thiet vi nhau tren tng oi

tng quan ly, do okequatnh toan cua 2 phng phap, phai bang nhau (oi vi

cac hien tng tnh c ca2 phng phap). Neu cosai lech phai tm nguyen nhan

kp thi .

n vtnh cua chtieu tuyet oi :



48/168


48

1.n vhien vat

1.a. n v hien vat tnhien: lan v o lng phuhp vi ac i em t

nhien cua tng n vtong thevaphuhp vi n vo lng quoc te, quoc gia ve

dien tch, chieu dai, dung tch, dung lng, thetch, thi gi an, sosk ien.

n v hien vat t nhien chdung exac nh qui mokhoi lng cua tng

loai n vtong theong chat.

1b. n vhien vat qui oi : (n vhien van tieu chuan)

Dung etong hp qui mo, solng cua cac l oai san pham hang hoacocung

cong dung k inh te, cung giatrsdung nhng khac nhau vekch tc mau ma, ty

trong loai hnh

equi oi tn vhien vat tnhien sang n vhien vat tieu chuan th phaithc hien tuan tcac bc sau ay:

- Tnh hesoqui oi (olasotng oi) c xac nh bang tsoso sanh gia

khanang thc tecua moi loai vi khanang cua loai c chon lam chuan equi oi

cac loai cocung cong dung kinh te, cung giatrsdung, cung tnh nang.

VD: - oi vi ngoai te, dung tygiahoi oai .

- Hesoqui oi cua mot so loai san pham c tnh nh sau:

- Xac nh solng khoi lng cua tng l oai trong n v hien vat qui oi :

bang tch gia hesoqui oi vi qui mosolng thc tet nhi en cua moi loai co

cung cong dung kinh te, cung giatrsdung.

-Tong hp qui mosolng cua cac loai cocung cong dung kinh te, cung gi a

trsdung trong n vhien vat ti eu chuan.

2.- n vgiatr(tien noi tevangoai te)

60%%bongxaloaimoicuatethcxetlngHamK xabong =

(thoc)(%)gaocuabottinhlngHam

loai(%)moitethcbottinhlngHamK lngthc =



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Trang 49

Dung etong hp cac n v tong thekhong ong chat hoac cac loai san

pham phai trai qua nhieu qui trnh cong nghekhac nhau, tnh chat san xuat khac

nhau.

3.- n vthi gian lao ong: (gicong, ngay cong)

Thng dung etnh lng lao ong hao ph asan xuat ra nhng san phamkhong thetong hp hoac so sanh vi nhau c bang cac n vtnh toan khac hoac

nhng san pham phc tap do nhieu ngi thc hi en qua nhieu giai oan khac nhau,

nocon c dung etnh nang suat lao ong, can oi lao ong.

Khong at van en vnao quan trong, ca3 n vcomoi quan hephulan

nhau.

4.2. CH TIEU TNG OI:

Lachtieu chat lng c dung elng hoamoi quan heso sanh gi a cachien tng qua thi gi an hoac khong gian khac nhau trong VT lasolan hoac %

hoac %0

* ac iem:

- M at lng cua chtieu tng oi lasotng oi.

- C sexac nh sotng oi hoac chtieu tng oi: olanhng chtieu

tuyet oi colien quan phuhp v i tng yeu cau quan ly. Sotng oi laket quax

lythong tin thong ke.

- M oi mot loai sotng oi eu cogoc so sanh phuhp vi tng yeu cauquan lyvaphan tch.

- V sotng oi laket quaxlythong tin thong kenhng lai comoi quan he

mat thiet vi chtieu tuyet oi tren tng phng trnh k inh tedo osdung moi

quan henay etnh mot sotng oi hoac sotuyet oi can tnh.

Phng phap tnh sotng oi:

Tuy theo tng muc ch yeu cau phan tch vacach chon goc so sanh maphan

biet cac loai sotng oi sau ay:- Sotng oi ong thai

- Sotng oi kehoach

- Sotng oi ket cau

- Sotng oi so sanh



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Trang 51

khoang cach thi gian ngan ( tng nam, thang cua kynghien cu. N oc xac nh

bang tsoso sanh gia mc ocua kynghien cu (y i) vamc ocua kyng ke

lien ngay trc o(y i 1)

M at chat cua toc ophat trien l ien hoan c xac nh bang toc otang

(giam) l ien hoan.

t i = ti 1 ( la

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