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Tom Morris Perception vs. reality

Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

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Page 1: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Tom

Mor

risPe

rcep

tion

vs. r

ealit

y

Page 2: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

‘the

larg

est a

udie

nce

to e

ver w

itnes

s an

inau

gura

tion’

Sean

Spi

cer,

Whi

te H

ouse

Pre

ss S

ecre

tary

Page 3: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,
Page 4: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Man

agem

ent s

pin

vs re

ality

Page 5: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Micr

obre

wer

ies i

n th

e US

Sour

ce: G

loba

lDat

a Co

nsum

er

9% p

a

30%

pa

Page 6: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

ABI -

shar

e pr

ice $

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

x7

Page 7: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

ABI

Sour

ce: A

BI c

ompa

ny p

rese

ntat

ion

Page 8: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Man

agem

ent s

pin

vs. r

ealit

y

‘Our

bus

ines

s has

nev

er b

een

stro

nger

or m

ore

robu

st’

Kevi

n Jo

hnso

n, C

EO, J

uly

2017

Page 9: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Star

buck

s -sh

are

price

$

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

x14

Page 10: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Star

buck

s

'The

trus

t and

conf

iden

ce o

ur

cust

omer

s hav

e in

the

Star

buck

s br

and

is pr

opel

ling

our b

usin

ess

forw

ard

in m

arke

ts a

nd ch

anne

ls ar

ound

the

wor

ld a

s nev

er b

efor

e.’

How

ard

Schu

ltz, C

hairm

anNo

v 20

16

Page 11: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Chin

a As

iaPa

c com

para

ble

sale

s gro

wth

%

Sour

ce: S

tarb

ucks

com

pany

pre

sent

atio

n

Page 12: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Star

buck

s

‘The

re's

no e

vide

nce

wha

tsoe

ver t

hat w

e ha

ve, t

hat

ther

e is

anyt

hing

that

they

[com

petit

ors]

are

doi

ng

that

is a

ffect

ing

us a

dver

sely

. So

I jus

t wan

t to

get

that

off

the

tabl

e. T

he c

ompe

titiv

e iss

ues

ques

tion

is ju

st a

non

even

t for

us’

Chai

rman

How

ard

Schu

ltz, A

pril

2017

Page 13: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Stor

e sa

les

Qua

rter

end

ed A

pr 1

, 201

8

Com

para

ble

stor

e sa

les

Chan

ge in

tran

sact

ions

Cons

olid

ated

-1%

Amer

icas

0%

Chin

a As

iaPa

c0%

EMEA

-4%

Sour

ce: S

tarb

ucks

com

pany

web

site

Page 14: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Man

agem

ent S

trat

egy

vs R

ealit

y

‘The

Net

flix

deal

is g

ood

new

s fo

r maj

or fi

lm st

udio

s’W

SJ in

Dec

201

2

Page 15: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

‘In a

dditi

on to

that

, you

hav

e th

e gr

owth

of p

latfo

rms l

ike

Netfl

ix o

r SVO

D. T

hat's

in

tere

stin

g as

wel

l. Be

caus

e w

hile

one

coul

d ar

gue

that

for a

ll th

e rig

ht re

ason

s tha

t's

star

ting

to in

cent

ivize

or m

aybe

ince

ntiv

izing

peo

ple

inclu

ding

Mill

enni

als t

o co

rd cu

t, it'

s also

pro

vidi

ng u

s opp

ortu

nitie

s bec

ause

Net

flix

has b

ecom

e a

real

ly im

port

ant

part

ner t

o us

in b

uyin

g ou

r off-

netw

ork

prod

uct,

buyi

ng o

rigin

al p

rogr

amm

ing

for u

s –th

e M

arve

l dea

l is a

goo

d ex

ampl

e –

and

then

our

film

libr

ary

kick

s in,

the

outp

ut d

eal

for t

he 2

016

slate

kick

s in.

So

we

look

at N

etfli

x ac

tual

ly ri

ght n

ow a

s mor

e fri

end

than

fo

e be

caus

e th

ey'v

e be

com

e an

agg

ress

ive

cust

omer

of o

urs.

I also

thin

k th

at p

rodu

cts

like

Netfl

ix a

re p

rett

y at

trac

tive

beca

use

they

offe

r a v

ery

user

-frie

ndly

, effi

cient

, and

of

tent

imes

muc

h le

ss e

xpen

sive

way

for p

eopl

e to

wat

ch te

levi

sion.

We'

ve b

een

amon

g th

e fir

st, i

f not

the

first

, to

offe

r our

pro

duct

on

new

pla

tform

s eve

n if

it's s

omew

hat

disr

uptiv

e’Di

sney

CEO

, Aug

ust 2

015

Page 16: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

‘It's

been

clea

r to

us fo

r a w

hile

with

th

e fu

ture

of t

his i

ndus

try

will

be

forg

ed b

y di

rect

rela

tions

hips

bet

wee

n co

nten

t cre

ator

s and

cons

umer

s…W

ith th

is st

rate

gic s

hift,

we'

ll en

d ou

r di

strib

utio

n ag

reem

ent w

ith N

etfli

x’.

Disn

ey C

EO, A

ugus

t 201

7

Page 17: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,
Page 18: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Inve

stor

per

cept

ion

vs. r

ealit

y

Page 19: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

A gr

eat b

usin

ess o

n su

rface

Sour

ce: C

apita

Ann

ual R

epor

t

ROIC

Cost

of C

apita

l

Page 20: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

‘(The

retu

rn is

cal

cula

ted

base

d on

und

erly

ing

prof

it fig

ures

whi

ch) e

xclu

des

non-

unde

rlyin

g ite

ms

deta

iled

in n

ote

4 bu

sines

s ex

it, n

ote

5 ad

min

istra

tive

expe

nses

and

not

e 9

net f

inan

ce

cost

s, in

the

note

s to

the

finan

cial

acc

ount

s.’

Sour

ce: C

apita

Ann

ual R

epor

t

Page 21: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Man

agem

ent a

djus

ted

prof

it to

ap

pear

10x

hig

her! 20

1620

15

Mgm

t Pr

esen

tatio

n£m

Repo

rted £m

Mgm

t Pr

esen

tatio n£m

Repo

rted £m

Net

Pro

fit

376.7

36.9

468.

452

.7

Sour

ce: C

apita

Ann

ual R

epor

t

Page 22: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

No re

al ca

sh g

ener

atio

n

Cash

ge

nera

ted

by b

usin

ess

Cash

use

d fo

r M&

A

Sour

ce: C

apita

Ann

ual R

epor

t

Page 23: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Payi

ng d

ivid

end

from

the

bala

nce

shee

t £m

Sour

ce: C

apita

Ann

ual R

epor

t

Repo

rted

ne

t deb

t

Actu

al n

et d

ebt

Leas

e ad

just

ed

net d

ebt

Page 24: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Shar

es ra

llied

unt

il re

ality

bite

s

-70%

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

Page 25: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Pres

s per

cept

ion

vs. r

ealit

y

Page 26: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Oil p

rice

$

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

, FT

22 M

ar 2

016

“Low

er fo

r lon

ger”

FT

Page 27: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Oil p

rice

$

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

+70%

Page 28: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Sell-

side

perc

eptio

n vs

. rea

lity

Page 29: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Angl

o Am

erica

n sh

are

price

-93%

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

Page 30: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Angl

o Am

erica

n

Sour

ce: S

ell-s

ide

rese

arch

Page 31: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,

Angl

o Am

erica

n sh

are

price

x6

Sour

ce: B

loom

berg

Page 32: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,
Page 33: Tom Morris Perception vs. reality - Institutional Dialogue · 2018. 6. 19. · Tom Morris Perception vs. reality ‘the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration’ Sean Spicer,