UNIVERSIDADE PAULISTA - UNIP AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO ...€¦ · intentional errors, also know as metrological frauds. The dataset is from the measurement errors report in the fuel

UNIVERSIDADE PAULISTA - UNIP

AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO ECONÔMICO

DA METROLOGIA LEGAL

Tese apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção da Universidade Paulista – UNIP, para obtenção do título de Doutor em Engenharia de Produção.

BRUNO AMADO RODRIGUES FILHO

São Paulo

2016

UNIVERSIDADE PAULISTA - UNIP


DA METROLOGIA LEGAL


Orientador: Prof. Dr. Rodrigo Franco Gonçalves.

Área de Concentração: Gestão de Sistemas de Operação.

Linha de Pesquisa: Redes de Empresas e Planejamento da Produção.

Projeto de Pesquisa: Aplicações de lógicas não clássicas, modelagem matemática e simulação na engenharia financeira e economia de empresas.


São Paulo

2016

Rodrigues Filho, Bruno Amado. Avaliação do impacto econômico da metrologia legal / Bruno Amado Rodrigues Filho. - 2016. 67 f. : il. color.

Tese de Doutorado Apresentada ao Programa de Pós Graduação em Engenharia de Produção da Universidade Paulista, São Paulo, 2016.

Área de Concentração: Redes de Empresas e Planejamento da Produção.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Rodrigo Franco Gonçalves.

1. Metrologia legal. 2. Impacto econômico. 3. Regulamentação. 4. Insumo-produto. 5. Leontief. I. Gonçalves, Rodrigo Franco (orientador). II. Título.



DA METROLOGIA LEGAL


Aprovado em:

BANCA EXAMINADORA

____________________________________________/__/____

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Rodrigo Franco Gonçalves

Universidade Paulista – UNIP

____________________________________________/__/____

Prof. Dr. Oduvaldo Vendrametto


____________________________________________/__/____

Prof. Dr. Pedro Luiz de Oliveira Costa Neto


____________________________________________/__/____

Prof. Dr. Alexandre Nixon Raulino Soratto da Silva

Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia – INMETRO

____________________________________________/__/____

Prof. Dr. Erik Eduardo Rego

Universidade de São Paulo – USP

DEDICATÓRIA

Dedico este trabalho a minha esposa e filho,

que suportaram todo este período de

dedicação intensiva ao desenvolvimento

desta pesquisa. E também aos amigos feitos

durante este período no Programa de Pós-

Graduação.

AGRADECIMENTOS

Agradeço ao orientador Rodrigo Franco Gonçalves por apresentar uma nova

abordagem quantitativa e objetiva em engenharia econômica, permitindo assim que um físico

se adequasse à engenharia de produção.

A todos os professores do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção,

que de uma forma ou outra contribuíram para este trabalho e em especial aos professores

Pedro Luiz de Oliveira Costa Neto, Oduvaldo Vendrametto, João Gilberto, Márcia Terra e

Irenilza de Alencar Nääs, que tiveram um papel importante como guias e críticos do trabalho

que foi construído ao longo de todo o curso.

Agradeço também aos amigos Alexandre Nixon Raulino Soratto da Silva e Mauricio

Evangelista da Silva, que contribuíram com comentários técnicos na área da metrologia e seus

conhecimentos acerca da metrologia legal e ao amigo Léssio Nunes, por suas sugestões

sempre pertinentes na área de estatística.

Finalmente, agradeço ao Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia –

INMETRO, que permitiu a realização deste trabalho, provendo também os dados necessários

para a construção do estudo.

RESUMO

O objetivo deste trabalho é a avaliação do impacto econômico da metrologia legal. Assim, a pesquisa utiliza uma abordagem quantitativa baseada na formulação do modelo de insumo-produto. A formulação proposta considera todas as interconexões dos setores produtivos, determinando como um desvio de medição em um produto impacta toda a economia. Um desvio representa a média dos erros de medição dos instrumentos utilizados, na indústria e comércio, nos consumos intermediários e na demanda final de produtos cujo valor é baseado em uma medição. Foram simulados os impactos em diferentes produtos-chave para a economia brasileira nos setores de commodities, combustíveis, mineração e serviços de utilidade. Também foram utilizados dados empíricos de erros de medição no setor de combustíveis no Brasil para a determinação de dois tipos de desvios: erros associados à variação aleatória das medições e erros intencionais de caráter sistemático, também denominados fraudes. Os dados são advindos do Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia –Inmetro, órgão responsável pela metrologia legal no país, assim como dados da matriz de insumo-produto brasileira elaborada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística – IBGE. Os resultados mostram que, para o setor de utilidade, um erro médio de 1% representa um impacto de US$ 995.679.155,81, significando 0,112% do PIB. Para o setor de combustíveis, o impacto médio calculado foi de US$ 25.505.627,88. Para uma fraude, no caso de etanol automotivo, com erro médio de 10% na quantidade comercializada em 1% dos instrumentos utilizados o valor calculado é de US$ 303.734.309,35. Os resultados demonstram o significativo impacto econômico dos erros de produtos cujo valor é baseado em medições. O método proposto permite identificar os produtos que têm maior impacto econômico e mostra-se como ferramenta para direcionar políticas na área da metrologia e contribuir para a competitividade da indústria e proteção ao consumidor.

Palavras-chave: metrologia legal; impacto econômico; regulamentação; insumo-produto; Leontief.

ABSTRACT The present research aims to evaluate the economic impact of the legal metrology. Then, a quantitative approach based on the input-output model is conducted. The proposed formulation considers the interconnections among the final demand and the productive sectors, determining the aggregated impact of a measurement deviation on the economy. These deviations represent the average error of the instruments used to trade goods which value is based on a measurement. We simulated the impact of different key products to the Brazilian economy, such as commodities, fuel, mining and utility services. Additionally we used empirical data of measurement errors for the fuel market in order to determine the impact of either deviations: errors due to random variations of measurements; systematic intentional errors, also know as metrological frauds. The dataset is from the measurement errors report in the fuel sector from the National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology – INMETRO, responsible for the legal metrology in Brazil, as well as the Input-Output matrices published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography – IBGE. For the utility services, the results show that a 1% average error would represent an impact of US$ 995,679,155.81 representing 0.112% of the GDP. For the fuel market, the average impact represents US$ 25,505,627.88. For an average metrological fraud of 10% in traded volume of ethanol in 1% of the instruments in the market, the evaluated economic impact represents US$ 303,734,309.35. The results show the significant impact of measurement errors to the economy. The proposed method also permits to identify the most significant products to the economy leading metrological policies to competitiveness of the industry and to consumer’s protection. Keywords: Legal metrology; economic impact; regulation; input-output; Leontief.

LISTA DE FIGURAS

Figura 1. Relacionamento das etapas deste trabalho com uma pesquisa de procedimentos

experimentais______________________________________________________________23

Figura 2. Constituição do objetivo geral por meio dos objetivos específicos e artigos e seções

de artigos elaborados que representam cada objetivo específico da tese_________________25

Figuras: Artigo 1 Figure 1. Systematic search process for articles to be considered in the study___________29

Figure 2. Results of each step of the systematic process ____________________________31

Figuras: Artigo 2

Figure 1. Scilabe 5.5.2 code used to simulate the economic distortion_________________45

Figure 2. Measuring error distribution for gasoline fuel dispenser___________________ 45

Figure 3. Economic distortion curve for utility services____________________________46

Figure 4. Economic distortion curve for commodities_____________________________ 46

Figure 5. Economic distortion curve for automotive fuels__________________________ 46

Figure 6. Economic distortion curve for mining__________________________________47

Figure 7. Economic distortion for empirical data, CMC and MPE range______________48

Figuras: Artigo 3

Figure 1. Uncertainty evaluation for the economic distortion_______________________ 56

Figure 2. Process for replacing empirical measurement errors for simulated defraudes values

________________________________________________________________________57

Figure 3. Effect of metrological frauds on the economy according to the percentage of

fraudulent instruments______________________________________________________58

Figure 4. Economic distortion for a constant number of fraudulent devices and volume

variation_________________________________________________________________58

LISTA DE TABELAS

Tabelas: Artigo 1 Table 1. Strings used to search electronic databases_______________________________28

Table 2. Selection criteria for article inclusion and exclusion _______________________ 28

Table 3. Journals and electronic databases that were searched______________________ 28

Table 4. Selected studies by topic category___________________________________30 – 31

Table 5. Number of selected studies by category__________________________________ 31

Tabelas: Artigo 2

Table 1: Products simulated to compute the economic distortion_____________________45

Table 2: Average errors and standard deviation of fuels dispenser ___________________45

Table 3: Economic distortion for a measuring error of 1% impact on the GDP_________ 46

Table 4: Linear approaches for the curves in figures 2-5 __________________________ 47

Tabelas: Artigo 3 Table 1: The variation of the measurement uncertainty according to the percentage of

fraudulent devices for a 10% volume deviation__________________________________ 58

LISTA DE SIGLAS AFRIMETS – Intra-Africa Metrology System ANP – Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis APLMF – Asia Pacific Legal Metrology Forum APMS – Advances in Production Management Systems BIPM – Bureau International des Poids et Mesures CAA – Conformity Assessment Activities CMC – Capacidade de Medição e Calibração COOMET – Euro-Asia Cooperation of Metrological National Institutions EMLMF – Euro-Mediterranean Legal Metrology Forum EMP – Erro Máximo Permitido ERP – Enterprise Resource Planning GDP – Gross Domestic Product IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística INMETRO – Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia IO – Input-Output IP – Insumo-Produto ISO – International Organization for Standardization JISM – Jordan Institution for Standards and Metrology LPG – Liquefied Petroleum Gas MAA – Mutual Acceptance Arrangement MID – Measuring Instrument Directive MMI – Mapping Measurement Impact MPE – Maximum Permissible Error NIST – Nacional Institute of Standards and Technology NMI – National Metrology Institute OIML – International Organization of Legal Metrology PIB – Produto Interno Bruto PLOA – Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual P&D – Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento R&D – Research and Development SADCMEL – Southern African Development Community in Legal Metrology SC – Subcommittee SI – Sistema Internacional de Unidades SIM – Inter-American Metrology System SME – Small and Medium Enterprise TC – Technical Committee UE – União Europeia VIM – International Vocabulary of Metrology – Basic and General Concepts and Associated Terms VIML – International Vocabulary of Terms in Legal Metrology WELMEC – European Cooperation in Legal Metrology

SUMÁRIO

1 INTRODUÇÃO ................................................................................................................ 13 1.1 Contexto e problematização .................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Objetivos .................................................................................................................................. 15 1.3 Justificativa .............................................................................................................................. 16 1.4 Organização do trabalho .......................................................................................................... 17

2 REVISÃO DA LITERATURA ....................................................................................... 19

3 METODOLOGIA ............................................................................................................ 23

4 ARTIGO 1 - METROLOGIA LEGAL, ECONOMIA E SOCIEDADE: UMA

REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA DA LITERATURA .......................................................... 26

5 ARTIGO 2 – MODELO DE INSUMO-PRODUTO PARA AVALIAÇÃO DA

DISTORÇÃO ECONÔMICA NA METROLOGIA LEGAL ...................................... 36

6 ARTIGO 3 – MEDIÇÃO DO IMPACTO ECONÔMICO DE FRAUDES

METROLÓGICAS UTILIZANDO O MODELO DE INSUMO-PRODUTO ........... 51

7 CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS .......................................................................................... 61 7.1 Conclusões da pesquisa ........................................................................................................... 61 7.2 Desenvolvimentos futuros ....................................................................................................... 63

REFERÊNCIAS ............................................................................................................... 64

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1 INTRODUÇÃO

1.1 Contexto e problematização

A metrologia definida como ciência das medições tem como objetivo prover

confiabilidade a uma determinada medida por meio de uma cadeia contínua e ininterrupta de

calibrações com erros e incertezas conhecidas, ou seja, rastreabilidade (VIM, 2012). Desta

forma, é possível transmitir uma informação por meio de um padrão primário e difundi-la,

neste caso uma medição, com erros e incertezas conhecidas, garantindo que o resultado final

seja rastreado ao padrão primário. A definição formal de medição e instrumento de medição é

dada a seguir:

Medição: processo de obtenção experimental de um ou mais valores que podem ser razoavelmente atribuídos a uma grandeza (VIM, 2012, p.16). Instrumento de medição: dispositivo utilizado para realizar medições, individualmente ou associado a um ou mais dispositivos suplementares (VIM, 2012, p.34).

A metrologia legal, segundo a Organização Internacional de Metrologia Legal

(OIML), é definida como:

Prática e processo de aplicar à metrologia uma estrutura legal e regulamentadora e implementar sua execução. (VIML, 2016, p. 8).

Desta forma, toda atividade de natureza metrológica que é alvo de algum tipo de ato

legal faz parte da metrologia legal, que em sua essência é a parte da metrologia responsável

por garantir confiança à economia e à sociedade nos processos envolvendo pesos e medidas.

A metrologia legal tem um impacto significativo tanto na economia quanto na

sociedade, pois é responsável pela regulamentação de instrumentos de medição que são

utilizados no comércio, indústria, saúde e meio ambiente. O controle dos erros e incertezas de

medição influenciam diretamente na competitividade de um país, ou seja, quanto menores os

desvios nas medições, menores serão as perdas (SANDERS, 2011). O impacto da metrologia

legal pode ser compreendido analisando-se os valores envolvidos em transações baseadas em

pesos e medidas. Por exemplo, no Brasil, somente as transações de importação e exportação

de petróleo e gás envolveram aproximadamente US$ 50,6 bilhões em 2012, correspondendo a

2,05% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) daquele ano (ANP, 2013; THE WORLD BANK,

14

2015). Similarmente, o valor agregado das medições envolvendo commodities excederam

50% do Produto Interno Bruto, em 1996, nos Estados Unidos (ARDIANTO, 2012). Da

mesma forma, a comercialização de produtos cujo valor está baseado em medições

correspondeu a £622 bilhões no Reino Unido, em 2002 (SANDERS, 2011).

A relevância da metrologia também é evidenciada no ambiente industrial. Um estudo

realizado no Brasil mostrou que 90% das empresas pesquisadas atribuíram como alta ou

muito alta a importância da metrologia como fator de competitividade (FERNANDES, 2010).

O controle provido pela metrologia legal é executado pelas atividades de aprovação de

modelo, verificações metrológicas e supervisão sobre os instrumentos de medição fabricados,

comercializados e utilizados no país (KLENOVSKY, 2006). Estas atividades correspondem

ao controle metrológico legal que, por meio do controle de erros de medição, entre outros

requisitos, reduz a distorção existente entre vendedor e comprador e traz consistência ao

mercado.

Apesar dos impactos promovidos pela metrologia legal não serem totalmente

conhecidos (BOWNS et al., 2003), há a necessidade da medição quantitativa dos benefícios

providos, de forma a justificar a alocação de recursos mobilizados para execução dos níveis

de controle e prover melhoria contínua nos processos para obter resultados melhores

(STIEFEL, 1973; BIRCH, 2004b). Dessa forma, o preço de um produto corresponde ao valor

envolvido na sua produção somado ao preço para verificar sua adequação ao mercado

(BABBAGE, 1832) e para um instrumento de medição em campo, este custo de verificação

corresponde às atividades de controle metrológico legal.

Um indicador proposto para determinar este impacto, classificado como distorção

econômica, ou assimetria de mercado, corresponde ao valor associado ao erro advindo de uma

medição (STIEFEL, 1973), que pode vir de dois fatores distintos: um desvio proveniente de

variações aleatórias nas características dos instrumentos de medição, ou um desvio

intencional com a finalidade de se obter vantagens financeiras, ou seja, uma fraude.

Consequentemente, um pequeno desvio de informação do que está sendo adquirido,

intencional ou não, pode ter um impacto significativo num mercado competitivo

(ROTHSCHILD e STIGLITZ, 1976).

Em um cenário macroeconômico, a distorção econômica permite determinar a

quantidade monetária sob incerteza na economia devido a erros de medição. Esta assimetria é

considerada uma da causas que podem levar uma economia a falhar, uma vez que o aumento

de precisão de um sistema metrológico aumenta o retorno econômico (SWANN, 2009).

15

Portanto, um sistema de medição eficiente é vital para a melhoria da economia de um

país.

Neste contexto, para determinação da distorção econômica, a principal dificuldade

está na obtenção de dados de produção e consumo de uma economia (STIEFEL, 1973). O

modelo de insumo-produto, que permite determinar o inter-relacionamento dos diversos

processos produtivos em uma economia (LEONTIEF, 1975), apresenta-se como uma

ferramenta adequada para tratar o impacto da distorção econômica ao longo de toda cadeia

produtiva.

Todavia, as pesquisas referentes à metrologia legal são predominantemente

qualitativas, voltadas a justificar a importância da metrologia legal em âmbito nacional e

internacional, tais como: a necessidade de regulação devido à globalização dos mercados

(BIRCH, 2004a); harmonização de requisitos em nível internacional pelos acordos de

reconhecimento mútuo (BARKER, 2005); eliminação de barreiras técnicas ao comércio

(JUST, 2009); conscientização dos impactos econômicos da metrologia (ARDIANTO, 2012);

percepção do impacto da metrologia em empresas de pequeno e médio porte (PONCE;

LEONARD, 2010), entre outros.

Portanto, este trabalho propõe o desenvolvimento de um método baseado no modelo

de insumo-produto para avaliação dos impactos dos instrumentos de medição utilizados no

comércio e na economia devido aos erros de medição destes instrumentos em campo. A

contribuição do modelo proposto neste trabalho é a utilização do modelo insumo-produto que

permite avaliar como o impacto advindo de erros de medição em um produto pode afetar toda

a economia.

1.2 Objetivos

O objetivo geral deste trabalho é a avaliação do impacto da metrologia legal na

economia apoiada em uma formulação baseada no modelo de insumo-produto.

Para a realização do objetivo geral, esta pesquisa foi dividida nos seguintes objetivos

específicos:

a) Contextualizar a pesquisa em relação ao estado da arte da metrologia legal,

caracterizando a relevância e o ineditismo do trabalho;

16

b) Modelagem matemática a partir do modelo de insumo-produto para a medição da

distorção econômica proveniente dos erros de medição dos instrumentos utilizados

em campo;

c) Simulação da distorção econômica com base na modelagem elaborada, utilizando

a matriz insumo-produto brasileira;

d) Medição empírica da distorção econômica tendo como exemplo o setor de

combustíveis automotivos no Brasil e por meio dos relatórios de erros de medição

dos instrumentos em campo provenientes do Instituto Nacional de Metrologia no

Brasil, INMETRO.

e) Medição da distorção econômica advinda de desvios sistemáticos intencionais nos

instrumentos de medição, ou seja, fraudes metrológicas.

1.3 Justificativa

As medições que envolvem o comércio são consideradas de extrema importância para

os países. Os valores envolvidos nestas transações, por meio de medições seguidas, agregam

importâncias que representam uma parte significativa do PIB.

A distorção econômica, ou seja, o valor associado aos erros de medição em transações

comerciais, é o indicador que permite calcular o valor econômico das medições na economia,

todavia uma modelagem matemática que permita a comparação entre países ainda é uma

questão em aberto nesta área do conhecimento. A assimetria de mercado implica no

desconhecimento completo do produto que está sendo adquirido. Além disso, a assimetria de

informação entre compradores e vendedores pode ocasionar uma falha de mercado (SWANN,

2009).

Uma vez que os impactos da metrologia e das tecnologias de medição não são bem

conhecidos, os orçamentos destinados à pesquisa nesta área estão sob constante pressão

(BOWNS et al., 2003). Além disto, a sociedade e demais instituições demandam o uso

racional de recursos (STIEFEL, 1973) e, especificamente no Brasil, onde os orçamentos para

a área da metrologia representaram, em 2014, valores da ordem de R$ 651,5 milhões (PLOA,

2014), a medição dos benefícios providos pelas atividades de metrologia legal são muito

importantes.

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1.4 Organização do trabalho

No capítulo 1 deste estudo aborda-se a contextualização e a problematização, os

objetivos e justificativas. Apresenta-se uma breve introdução sobre os conceitos fundamentais

de metrologia e metrologia legal, assim como os principais pontos relevantes da área e suas

aplicações. São discutidos ainda os aspectos que justificam a importância da realização do

trabalho e os objetivos a serem alcançados no final da pesquisa.

Em seguida, no capítulo 2, é realizada a revisão da literatura sobre metrologia legal,

com foco na medição de seus impactos econômicos. São referenciados os trabalhos relevantes

publicados na área e um relatório emitido pela Organização Internacional de Metrologia Legal

(OIML), no qual os trabalhos referenciados não foram publicados, ou por conter dados de

interesse nacional, ou por tratarem-se de estudos realizados por consultorias.

A partir do capítulo 3, no qual é estabelecida a metodologia utilizada na pesquisa, esta

tese é tratada em formato de artigos, na qual os capítulos referentes aos resultados obtidos

para atender aos objetivos específicos propostos. Os artigos apresentados foram aprovados ou

submetidos a periódicos de circulação internacional. A metodologia por artigos tem a

vantagem de permitir uma avaliação por pares das etapas realizadas e apresenta os objetivos

específicos concluídos do trabalho.

No capítulo 4, que representa o primeiro objetivo específico do estudo, é realizada

uma revisão sistemática da literatura na área da metrologia legal, com foco no controle

metrológico legal, que contextualiza a pesquisa em relação ao estado da arte na metrologia

legal e caracteriza a relevância e o ineditismo do trabalho proposto.

No capítulo 5 são abordados o segundo, terceiro e quarto objetivos específicos

propostos nessa pesquisa, por meio da apresentação de: formulação matemática proposta

baseada no modelo IP (insumo-produto) para a determinação da distorção econômica;

resultados das simulações realizadas para diferentes produtos de importância significativa

para a economia brasileira, utilizando-se os dados da matriz IP do Brasil e resultados do

cálculo da distorção econômica para o setor de combustíveis automotivos no Brasil,

utilizando-se dados de relatórios de erros de medição dos instrumentos no setor, do Instituto

Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia – INMETRO, o organismo responsável pela

metrologia legal no País.

O capítulo 6 aborda o quinto objetivo específico do estudo, no qual é discutido e

avaliado o impacto econômico advindo de desvios propositais nos instrumentos de medição

18

utilizados na indústria e comércio, exemplificado com dados empíricos do setor de

combustíveis brasileiro.

Finalmente, a conclusão é apresentada no capítulo 7 e discute a importância dos

resultados obtidos e a contribuição deste estudo, assim como os desenvolvimentos futuros

para pesquisas na área.

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2 REVISÃO DA LITERATURA

A metrologia legal, assim como a medição, se confunde com a história da

humanidade, com o estabelecimento de um sistema de padrões de comprimento, massa e

volume pela dinastia Shang, na China há 3.500 anos (JURAN, 1995). Outro exemplo remonta

a 3.000 anos atrás quando o profeta Shoa’aib, que vivia na Jordânia, pediu a seu povo para

não utilizar dois pesos e duas medidas, uma para comprar e outra para vender (MELHEM,

2009). Historicamente, o controle metrológico foi iniciado para regular o comércio de

alimentos e, posteriormente, devido à difusão para a sociedade, o comércio e a tecnologia do

mecanismo tornou-se um sistema para o controle da confiabilidade das medições (BIRCH,

2004a).

Kenneth Arrow, laureado Prêmio Nobel de economia em 1972, estudou a confiança

nas relações econômicas e estabeleceu que há sempre uma relação de confiança nas trocas

comerciais e que muito do atraso no desenvolvimento mundial se deve à falta de confiança

mútua (ARROW, 1974). Nesse contexto, a Organização Internacional de Metrologia Legal

(OIML) foi criada em 1955, com o propósito de harmonizar a estrutura de metrologia legal e

requisitos por meio de políticas e recomendações internacionais, para facilitar o crescimento

do comércio global e reconhecimento mútuo entre países (BARKER, 2005).

Assim, apesar das questões envolvendo confiança nas relações comerciais e os

instrumentos de medição, há sempre um erro associado à inexatidão dos equipamentos

utilizados e, consequentemente, um valor associado a este erro, que quando se refere a um

valor em unidade monetária é, em geral, descrito como uma distorção econômica ou

assimetria de informação (STIEFEL, 1973).

Esta assimetria de informação, também interpretada como falta de conhecimento

acerca do produto comercializado, pode levar à exclusão do produto do mercado devido à

ineficiência da sociedade para o fluxo de informação assimétrica (STIGLITZ, 2002).

Somando-se à questão dos erros de medição, de caráter aleatório, há também os erros

de medição sistemáticos de caráter intencional, ou seja, com o objetivo de se obter vantagem

sobre um comprador, denominados fraudes, que acarretam perdas conhecidas como “custo da

desonestidade” (AKERLOF, 1970). A concorrência internacional está conduzindo as

empresas a margens cada vez mais apertadas o que aumenta o risco de desonestidade

(KOCHSIEK e SCHULZ, 2004). Um exemplo é o setor de combustíveis no qual as fraudes

variam de 6% a 12% do volume comercializado (LEITÃO, VASCONCELLOS e

BRANDÃO, 2014).

20

Apesar da importância da metrologia associada ao comércio, a literatura é considerada

esparsa, porém em expansão (BOWNS et al., 2003; SWANN, 2009). Os estudos

contemplando a medição do impacto econômico dos instrumentos utilizados no comércio

carecem de métodos que forneçam ferramentas para permitir a comparação entre países.

Em 1973, um estudo apresentado por Stiefel mostra a importância da medição deste

impacto econômico e propõe um modelo de análise estatística, no qual a média dos erros de

medição dos instrumentos utilizados em campo, obtidos nos relatórios de erros de medição

dos órgãos responsáveis pelo controle metrológico nos Estados Unidos, é associada à

comercialização de produtos. Contudo, Stiefel não apresenta um valor conclusivo uma vez

que os dados disponíveis contabilizavam apenas os instrumentos de medição, com erros

acima de um valor definido. Sua contribuição foi a utilização de dados empíricos, porém

limitados pela sua disponibilidade.

Em 2003, um relatório elaborado pelo membro honorário da OIML, John Birch, fez

uma coletânea de estudos de impacto elaborados nas décadas anteriores, em diversos países,

sobre a importância do impacto da metrologia legal no comércio e na sociedade, retomando o

conceito de distorção econômica e enfatizando sua importância. Os trabalhos foram

elaborados por consultorias e institutos nacionais de metrologia e não foram publicados; os

mesmos tinham como objetivo determinar o impacto econômico das medições, segundo a

análise de Birch e estão listados a seguir:

a) O Bureau Nacional de Padrões, agora NIST (National Institute of Standards and

Technology), nos EUA, durante os anos de 1967 até 1977, calculou o impacto da

metrologia na economia como sendo o valor total de mão de obra e equipamentos

da indústria;

b) Estudos conduzidos pelo organismo responsável pela metrologia no Canadá

(Measurement Canada) na década de 80 identificaram os valores comercializados

por instrumentos de medição e criaram um indicador de custo-benefício,

comparando com os custos para manter o sistema metrológico no país. Ainda no

Canadá, a consultoria KPMG, em 2001, utilizou uma metodologia para medir os

custos de manutenção de padrões metrológicos primários e considerou os custos

para credenciamento, conforme as normas ISO 9000 e 14000, como indicador de

disposição de gastos com rastreabilidade.

c) O Departamento de Indústria e Comércio do Reino Unido de 1988 a 1999

elaborou uma série de estudos sobre medições, impacto econômico e P&D

(pesquisa e desenvolvimento). O último estudo, em 1999, utiliza um método que

21

compara o número de patentes relacionadas às medições com o total,

determinando assim o crescimento econômico devido à metrologia.

d) Da mesma forma, o Projeto Europeu de Medição realizou estudos entre 2001 e

2002, que utilizaram a taxa de patentes relacionadas às medições como indicador

de contribuição da metrologia para a economia comparada com o total de gastos

da indústria.

A análise dos trabalhos mencionados no relatório de Birch permite identificar que os

estudos realizados por aqueles países tentavam quantificar os impactos da metrologia legal

por meio de indicadores secundários, tais como número de patentes na área e custos de

credenciamentos em normas ISO, mas não se observa um método que permita avaliar estes

impactos diretamente.

Em 2000, um estudo elaborado pelo NIST, nos Estados Unidos, explorou os

benefícios da pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) em metrologia, com uma coletânea de

estudos formais e informais que discutia os impactos da metrologia na medição de colesterol,

materiais de referência, indústria automotiva e gás natural (SEMERJIAN e WATTERS JR.,

2000). No que tange aos aspectos econômicos a abordagem do trabalho é puramente

qualitativa e ressalta a importância da harmonização e padronização.

Consecutivamente, em 2002, o Reino Unido conduziu um estudo de impacto sobre a

medição de sua infra-tecnologia. A matriz de insumo-produto foi utilizada para determinar

quais setores da economia são mais afetados economicamente pela P&D (TEMPLE e

WILLIAMS, 2002). Subsequentemente, em 2003 o Departamento de Indústria e Comércio do

Reino Unido apresentou um modelo econométrico, denominado Mapping Measurement

Impact (MMI), para medir os benefícios econômicos da P&D (BOWNS et al., 2003).

Em 2004, Birch retoma o tema sobre a importância da quantificação dos benefícios da

metrologia legal e pondera sobre a necessidade desta medição. Adicionalmente, em 2009 é

emitido um relatório elaborado pelo Departamento de Comércio do Reino Unido sobre o

impacto da metrologia em sua infraestrutura nacional e enfoca que as melhorias nas medições

podem diminuir os custos de transação entre fornecedores e consumidores e reduzir a

assimetria entre quem compra e quem vende, sendo esta uma fonte que pode levar um

mercado a falhar (SWANN, 2009).

Em seguida, uma série de estudos descritivos enfatizaram os benefícios da metrologia

legal como fator regulador e controlador de mercado ao diminuir as distorções e prover

benefícios à economia (DUNMILL, 2009; CARSTENS, 2010; SANDERS, 2011;

ARDIANTO, 2012).

22

Em 2009, no Brasil, o INMETRO realizou o cálculo da distorção econômica com

dados empíricos somente dos instrumentos de medição que apresentavam erros de medição

nos quais o consumidor final era prejudicado, para o estado do Rio Grande do Sul. O

resultado apresentado nesse trabalho foi de R$ 45,55 milhões (DIAS, CALDAS e COSTA,

2010) e a metodologia proposta considerou apenas o consumidor final, não levando em conta

as transações comerciais intermediárias nas quais também são agregadas perdas.

Finalmente, em 2012, foi proposto um modelo estatístico para a medição de perdas

devido à diferença de padrões de medição utilizados nas comparações entre compradores e

vendedores. As entradas para o modelo proposto são a distribuição dos desvios dos produtos

comercializados, assim como os desvios dos padrões de medição utilizados (USUDA e

HENSON, 2012). Este modelo contribuiu por tratar-se de uma proposta com formulação

reprodutível e aplicável em diversos casos, porém por abordar especificamente a

comercialização de produtos na relação individual entre comprador e vendedor, é mais

aplicável em relações entre empresas ou no comércio exterior entre países.

O modelo de insumo-produto (IP) foi desenvolvido pelo economista Wassily Leontief,

professor de Harvard durante a década de 60 e laureado Prêmio Nobel em economia em 1973.

O modelo de Leontief foi baseado nos trabalhos da Teoria do Equilíbrio Geral de Léon

Walras.

O modelo IP é baseado na hipótese de que os processos produtivos estão conectados e

o insumo de um processo é o produto de outro. Esta interdependência é representada em um

sistema matricial de equações (LEONTIEF, 1936). O mérito deste modelo é descrever a

realidade econômica tão próxima quanto possível (DAVAR, 2000).

A análise pela modelagem IP é largamente utilizada em diversas áreas, como na

produção de petróleo (KERSCHNER e HUBACEK, 2009), energia (ARBEX e PEROBELLI,

2010), consumo de água (VELÁZQUEZ, 2006) e emissão de CO2 (SU et al., 2010).

23

3 METODOLOGIA

A pesquisa é definida como um procedimento racional e sistemático provendo

respostas aos problemas propostos (GIL, 2007). Desta forma, só há pesquisa quando há um

questionamento ou um problema a ser resolvido ou uma hipótese a ser testada. E, de forma a

se chegar a uma conclusão ao tema estudado, aplica-se um método, do grego methodos

(caminho para chegar a um fim) (GERHARDT e SILVEIRA, 2009), que permite a validação

da pesquisa assim como sua reprodutibilidade.

A abordagem da pesquisa deste trabalho é quantitativa, por meio da medição e análise

de dados referentes ao consumo intermediário e demanda final na economia brasileira e aos

erros dos instrumentos de medição utilizados em campo, por meio de dados empíricos.

Assim, para a sua construção foram aplicados os conceitos de pesquisa experimental, que

consiste na determinação do objeto de estudo, selecionar as variáveis de influência e

finalmente observar os efeitos que estas variáveis produzem no fenômeno estudado (GIL,

2007). A Figura 1 relaciona os passos de uma pesquisa de procedimentos experimentais

relacionados com as etapas deste estudo.

Figura 1. Relacionamento das etapas deste estudo com uma pesquisa de procedimentos experimentais

Fonte: próprio autor, 2016.

Determinação do objeto de estudo

Determinação das variáveis de influência,

formulação

Efeitos das variáveis sobre o fenômeno

estudado

•  Distorção"Econômica;""•  Modelo" de" InsumoD

Produto;"

•  Revisão" Sistemá<ca" da"Literatura;"

•  Jus<fica<va;""•  Inedi<smo"do"trabalho;"

•  Simulação/Variação" dos"parâmetros" " (desvio" x"distorção);"

•  Análise"dos"resultados;"•  Dados"empíricos;"

Pesquisa)de)proced

imen

to)experim

ental)

Etapas)da)Pesquisa) Meios/Métodos)

24

Esse estudo está organizado em formato de artigos, no qual cada resultado da pesquisa

realizada é demonstrado por meio de um trabalho aprovado ou submetido a um periódico,

cuja relevância na área da metrologia é demonstrada pelo fator de impacto e indexação do

periódico. Este tipo de formato permite demonstrar a significância dos resultados de pesquisa

por meio da revisão de pares para publicação, que é relacionada a um indicador de qualidade

por basear-se na experiência e conhecimento do avaliador (BRINN, JONES e

PENDLEBURY, 2000).

Inicialmente, para identificar de forma consistente os avanços e contribuições na área

da metrologia legal, assim como consubstanciar de maneira robusta o estudo proposto, foi

realizada uma revisão sistemática da literatura na área. Este tipo de revisão permite

identificar, avaliar, interpretar e sintetizar os estudos relevantes (DING et al., 2014) para

construir uma pesquisa com bases sólidas e consistentes. Identificou-se também não haver

estudos realizados por meio deste tipo de revisão na área da metrologia legal e ainda que a

última revisão foi realizada em 2003 (BIRCH, 2003), o que representa uma lacuna de

aproximadamente 10 anos para o estado da arte sobre o tema.

Uma vez constituído o referencial teórico que justifica a realização da pesquisa e

comprova o seu ineditismo, foi realizada a modelagem matemática para a avaliação da

distorção econômica baseada no modelo de insumo-produto proposto pelo economista

Wassily Leontief (LEONTIEF, 1975). A abordagem por esta formulação se justifica por

tratar-se de um modelo econômico consolidado e amplamente utilizado.

Estabelecida a formulação matemática foram utilizados os dados advindos das

matrizes nacionais de usos e recursos publicadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e

Estatística (IBGE, 2008), que são a base para o cálculo da matriz de insumo-produto

brasileira. A metodologia aplicada para a determinação destes dados é normalizada pela

Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU, 1999).

Para o cálculo da distorção econômica no setor de combustíveis foram utilizados

dados secundários obtidos nos relatórios de erros de medição do Instituto Nacional de

Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia - INMETRO. Estes dados foram provenientes

diretamente do sistema de informação integrado (SILVA et al., 2014) do instituto para

consolidar as informações das medições no comércio e na indústria. Os resultados de ensaios

estão alinhados à recomendação internacional estabelecida pela Organização Internacional de

Metrologia Legal (OIML R118, 1995).

25

Finalmente, utilizando a formulação proposta, foi realizada a avaliação do impacto

econômico oriundo de fraudes no setor para se obter o custo da desonestidade para a

economia.

A Figura 2 mostra o inter-relacionamento entre os capítulos do trabalho e as seções

dos artigos apresentados, contemplando o objetivo geral da pesquisa. Também é possível

visualizar como as seções dos artigos representam um objetivo específico.

Figura 2. Constituição do objetivo geral por meio dos objetivos específicos e artigos e seções de artigos elaborados que representam cada objetivo específico da tese

Fonte: próprio autor, 2016.

1"–"Contextualizar"a"pesquisa"em"relação"ao"estado"da"arte"na"metrologia"legal," "caracterizando"a"relevância"e"o"inedi<smo"do"trabalho."

2" –"Modelagem"matemá<ca" a" par<r" do"Modelo" de" InsumoDProduto" para" a" medição" da" distorção"econômica"proveniente"dos"erros"de"medição"dos"instrumentos"u<lizados"em"campo."

3"–"Simulação"da"distorção"econômica"com"base"na"modelagem"elaborada"u<lizando"a"matriz"insumoDproduto"brasileira."

Avaliação"do" impacto"da"metrologia" legal"na"economia"u<lizando"formulação"baseado"no"Modelo"de"InsumoDProduto.

Obje%

vos)E

specíficos))

4" –" Medição" empírica" da" distorção" econômica" u<lizando" como" exemplo" o" setor" de" combusMveis"automo<vos"no"Brasil,"u<lizando"relatórios"de"erros"de"medição"dos"instrumentos"em"campo"provenientes"do"ins<tuto"nacional"de"metrologia"no"Brasil,"INMETRO.""

5"–"Avaliação"do"impacto"econômico"devido"a"fraudes"em"instrumentos"de"medição"u<lizando"como"exemplo"o"setor"de"combusMveis"automo<vos"no"Brasil."

Objetivo Geral

Capítulo)4)+Legal)metrology,)the)economy)and)society:)A)systema;c)literature)review"

Capítulo)5)+)Formulação))

Capítulo)5)–)Simulando)a)distorção)econômica)

Capítulo)5)–Medindo)a)distorção)econômica)

Ar<go"1"–"Obj."1"

Seções"5"e"6"do"Ar<go"2"–"Obj."2"

Seção"7.1"do"Ar<go"2"–"Obj."3"

Seção"7.2"do"Ar<go"2"–"Obj."4"

Capítulo)6)–)Distorção)econômica)devido)a)fraude)

Artigos

Ar<go"3"–"Obj."5"

26

4 ARTIGO 1 - METROLOGIA LEGAL, ECONOMIA E SOCIEDADE: UMA REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA DA LITERATURA

Neste capítulo é apresentada uma revisão sistemática da literatura no âmbito da

metrologia legal, com enfoque nas atividades relacionadas, ou impactadas pelo controle

metrológico legal. O artigo atende ao primeiro objetivo específico desse trabalho e foi

publicado na revista Measurement - Journal of the Measurement Confederation, ano 2015,

volume n.o 69, páginas 155 a 163.

A revisão sistemática foi utilizada por ser um processo lógico e consistente que

organiza e identifica contribuições no campo estudado. Desta forma, foi possível caracterizar

o ineditismo do trabalho proposto, assim como identificar as principais pesquisas e

desenvolvimentos na área.

Foram selecionados 59 estudos que foram divididos em quatro categorias distintas:

economia e sociedade; comércio internacional; controle metrológico legal; metrologia legal

em países em desenvolvimento.

No comércio internacional, as pesquisas estão voltadas para a harmonização de

sistemas de medição e acordos de reconhecimento mútuo para dirimir as barreiras técnicas ao

comércio, em nível global.

Com relação aos trabalhos vinculados às atividades do controle metrológico legal e

metrologia legal em países em desenvolvimento, as publicação são descritivas e mostram as

atividades realizadas por diversos países, os avanços alcançados pela implementação do

controle metrológico. Também pôde ser verificado o impacto positivo de acordos e formações

de blocos regionais, com o intuito de troca de experiências, treinamentos e intercâmbio de

conhecimento na área da metrologia legal.

Finalmente, na área de economia e sociedade, os estudos estão focados principalmente

no impacto da metrologia legal e em aspectos de âmbito econômico voltados para a defesa do

consumidor, que pode ser representado por um indivíduo ou por uma empresa que adquire

produtos com valores baseados em medições.

Assim, como conclusão é constatada a necessidade de medição dos benefícios da

metrologia legal, ainda uma questão em aberto nesta linha de pesquisa.

27

Legal metrology, the economy and society: A systematicliterature review

Bruno A. Rodrigues Filho a,⇑, Rodrigo F. Gonçalves b

a National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology, Legal Metrology Directory, Nossa Senhora das Graças Av., 50 Xerém – Duque de Caxias,RJ 25250-020, Brazilb Paulista University, Industrial Engineering Department, Dr. Bacelar St., 1212, 4th floor – Vila Clementino, São Paulo, SP 04026-002, Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 7 October 2014Received in revised form 8 February 2015Accepted 20 March 2015Available online 28 March 2015

Keywords:Legal metrologyDeveloping countriesMeasuring instrumentLegal metrological control

a b s t r a c t

This study carries out a literature review regarding legal metrological control and itsimpact on society and the economy. A systematic, logical and consistent process has beenused to organize and extract the contributions of published academic studies in the field. Asystematic literature review process has also been shown to be an appropriate tool tomanage and organize the growing number of databases for articles and journals, allowingthe identification of relevant contributions.

A total of 59 studies were selected and categorized based on four different approaches:the economy and society, international trade, legal metrological control, and metrology indeveloping countries. The 59 selected articles are discussed in order to explore the state ofthe art concerning legal metrology, with a focus on legal metrological control. On the basisof these categories, open issues were also identified in order to suggest future studies in thefield.

! 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Legal metrology has a significant impact on society andthe economy, both in terms of regulating measuringinstruments to ensure consumer protection and becauseit lowers measuring uncertainties in measurement instru-ments, which has consequences for countries’ nationalcompetitiveness. Legal metrology’s economic impact canbe easily understood by analyzing the money involved inmeasurements. For example, Brazilian oil and gas importsand exports alone were worth US$ 50.6 billion [1] in2012. Similarly, as commodities move from point ofproduction to final sale they are measured multiple timesfor a range of transactions, like sales, freight and taxes.The aggregate values of these transactions exceed 50% of

gross national product of the US in 1996 [2]. Likewise,£622 billion worth of goods whose value was based on mea-surement were sold in the United Kingdom in 2002 [52].

The social aspects of legal metrology concern bothsecurity and consumer protection. Consumers are vulnera-ble when they purchase goods whose worth is based onmeasurement if they are unable to evaluate the amountof product traded. Additionally, the inadequate use of mea-suring instruments can produce incorrect measurements[52]. In the security field, it has been shown thatAustralia significantly reduced the number of accidentaldeaths and injuries due to safety enforcement require-ments [4] utilizing measuring instruments such as radarspeed devices and breathalyzers.

Legal metrological control comprises activities in legalmetrology, including verifications and surveillance inmeasuring instruments before and after they are releasedto the market [62]. Checking for errors to enforce trust in

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2015.03.0280263-2241/! 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 21 2679 9175.E-mail address: [email protected] (B.A. Rodrigues Filho).

Measurement 69 (2015) 155–163

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Measurement

journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/ locate/measurement

28

measurements reduces unfair competition and ensuresconsistency in trade.

When legal metrology is related to the economy,society, health and the environment, an improvement inlegal metrological control represents an improvement inthe entire ecosystem, which improves overall efficiency.Thus, increasing efficiency in legal metrological controlmeans increasing confidence in the measurement instru-ments under legal metrological regulation.

In this sense, this study aims to identify thecontributions to the legal metrological control process,thus allowing us to verify developments across countriesand to contribute to the field of legal metrology bysummarizing recent advances, identifying gaps in develop-ment, and providing support to eventual future studies tobe carried out in legal metrology.

2. Methodology

A systematic literature review was carried out to iden-tify the development and progress of legal metrology witha focus on legal metrological control and its impact onsociety and the economy. Because peer review is a typicalindicator of quality in research that is based on thereviewer’s direct expertise and knowledge [13], articlespublished in journals, conferences, congresses andsymposiums proceedings were considered. A 10-year timelimit for sample studies was set in order to incorporateonly recent studies. The search for articles was divided intothree steps [20] so that only relevant studies in the field oflegal metrological control would be included. The first stepwas to identify articles based on a string search in all fieldsof relevant electronic databases; Table 1 shows the stringsused.

The second step was to check article titles and abstractsto identify whether articles were in fact related to therelationship between economic and social developmentand legal metrological control.

The third step comprised the analysis of the full textand the decision to incorporate articles according to theexclusion/inclusion criteria [20], as shown in Table 2.

Additionally, after identifying contributions to legalmetrology that were published in journals, we conductedindividual searches for relevant articles in conference pro-ceedings that were not linked to electronic databases.

Table 3 shows the electronic databases, journals andproceedings across which we performed our search.Fig. 1 shows the flow of the systematic review process.Table 4 presents the selected studies.

3. Results and discussion

The systematic literature review process was conductedfrom February to April 2014 over electronic databases,journals and proceedings, according to Table 3. The resultsof each step of the search are listed in Fig. 2, which showsthat a total of 59 studies were incorporated in this review.To organize the developments in the legal metrologicalcontrol literature, the selected studies were divided in fourcategories according to their focus: economy and society;legal metrological control; international trade; and legalmetrology in developing countries.

Each study was placed in only one category, and Table 5shows the number of studies by category (selected studieslisted by title with their category included are shown inTable 4).

3.1. Economy and society

Measuring instruments used in trade impact bothsociety and the economy. Weights and measures were ini-tially used to control food in trade, and due to a wide-spread social, transportation and technological evolution,local markets have become national and global, expandingthe need for a system to ensure the reliability of measure-ments [5].

These measurements are present in consumers’ every-day lives, especially today, when they are the basis ofcharges for the use of water, electricity, gas, fuel, foodand other vital components of daily life. Society isimpacted by measurements, and once people becomevulnerable to measurements, they are unable to verifymeasurements’ reliability [52]. The state plays a significant

Table 1Strings used to search electronic databases.

String

‘‘METROLOGY’’;‘‘METROLOGY’’ AND ‘‘LEGAL METROLOGY’’;‘‘METROLOGY’’ AND ‘‘LEGAL METROLOGY’’ AND (‘‘ECONOMY’’ OR

‘‘ECONOMIC’’);‘‘METROLOGY’’ AND ‘‘LEGAL METROLOGY’’ AND (‘‘ECONOMY’’ OR

‘‘ECONOMIC’’) AND (‘‘SOCIETY’’ OR ‘‘SOCIAL’’);

Table 2Selection criteria for article inclusion and exclusion.

Criteria

Inclusion The theme of study is the impact of legal metrology onthe economy and societyThe study is related to improvements in legalmetrological control

Exclusion The article is related to metrology, but not legalmetrologyThe article approaches improvements to an individualmeasuring instrument

Table 3Journals and electronic databases that were searched.

Journals and electronic database

ScienceDirectWeb of knowledgeScopusIOPScienceInternational organization of legal metrology bulletinActa IMEKO online journalInternational measurement confederation world congress – imeko

proceedingsInternational conference of metrology – CAFMET proceedingsInternational symposium of metrology proceedingsInternational congress of metrology proceedings

156 B.A. Rodrigues Filho, R.F. Gonçalves / Measurement 69 (2015) 155–163

29

part in this game, especially because regulation is neces-sary in some areas to guarantee accurate measures. Therelationship between the state and legal metrology canbe therefore defined as symbiotic [5]: legal metrologyneeds the state to regulate, and the state needs accuratemeasurement to organize, plan, defend and tax efficiently.Compared to scientific metrology, the consumer protectionaspects of legal metrology are realized throughverifications based on consumer protection requirements,as compared to calibration [51].

An important example of the social impact of legalmetrology is the reduction of deaths and injuries fromaccidents due to speed cameras [6]. To give anotherexample, there are taxes based on measurements. Thus, thegovernment’s regulation of measurement instruments usedin trade in order to provide confidence in measurements thataffect society and the economy is more cost-effective thande-regulating the instruments [52]. In essence, a solidmetrology system is vital to the economy [16].

The International Organization of Legal Metrology(OIML) was created with the purpose of harmonizing legalmetrological structures and requirements through policyand recommendations, facilitating the growth of the globalmarket and mutual acceptance among countries [3], andpromoting social and economic welfare. The OIML usesTechnical Committees (TC) and Subcommittees (SC) tobuild consensus in legal metrology issues among itsmembers [61]. OIML and the International Organizationfor Standardization are also considered as standardizingbodies in the sense of the Technical Barrier to TradeAgreement of the World Trade Organization [27]. Theharmonization of international standards and proceduresis an effective tool for reducing asymmetries in interna-tional trade scenarios [58].

Environmental issues form another relevant aspect oflegal metrology. Concerns about the unsustainable current

model of globalization are leading OIML to invest resourcesin environmental recommendations, essentially using legalmetrology to produce more while using less [9]. The use ofthe International System of Units (SI) is also recommendedin environmental guides to harmonize the measurementunits between countries; carbon trading is also part ofthe process to protect the environment [59].

Although studies have been conducted in countriessuch as the US, Canada and Australia that identify theimportance of measurement in both society and the econ-omy, a quantitative indicator of benefits generated by legalmetrology is still missing. The economic distortion orasymmetry that represents the money in the riskassociated with measurement errors [6] is an open issuein legal metrology. A model using linear regression torelate a product certification to production and monetaryinflation was created in order to assess the economicimpact of product certification [58]. A similar study couldbe conducted in legal metrology using economic distortion.

The regulation of metrology results in benefits tosociety and the economy. A country’s decision to regulate(or not) a specific area depends on that country alone.Because each country has its own needs, the impact of reg-ulation on any area must be thoroughly investigated.Applying similar requirements to developed and develop-ing economies does not mean the latter will be successful;national differences and particularities must be consid-ered. Economic aspects are always examined during theregulation process; however, social welfare should bealways considered, and carefully considered regulationswill lead to the development of the economy.

3.2. International trade

In the international arena where economies areconnected, especially in countries whose economies are

Fig. 1. Systematic search process for articles to be considered in the study, adapted from [20].

B.A. Rodrigues Filho, R.F. Gonçalves / Measurement 69 (2015) 155–163 157

30

Table 4Selected studies by topic category.

Selected study Economyandsociety

Internationaltrade

Legalmetrologicalcontrol

Legal metrology indevelopingcountries

ARDIANTO, R. A way to stimulate public awareness XBARKER, J. The OIML and the purpose of international recommendations XBIRCH, J. The expanding scope of legal metrology and the changing role of the

state in a globalised worldX

BIRCH, J. Economic and Social Benefits of Legal Metrology XBIRCH, J. Legislating for metrology in developing countries XBIRDSEYE, M. The Measuring Instruments Directive (MID) XBIRDSEYE, M.; AWASOLA, M. Basic requirements for legal metrology in

Developing economiesX

BRANDÃO, P. Contramedidas de hardware y software sobre el fraude de altatecnología al Surtidor de combustible bajo el alcance de Metrología Legal

X

BREUGEL, P. V. Metrology in a global market XBREUGEL, P. V. Views from a notified body towards global acceptance XBUZAC, E.; IONECU, F. Metrology and standardization: Infrastructure

components of a modern societyX

CARSTENS, S. AFRIMETS (Intra–Africa Metrology System) XCARSTENS, S. The benefits of the sound legal metrology system to an economy XCHAPPELL, S. Opportunities and future trends in legal metrology control of

measuring instrumentsX

CRENNA, F.; ROSSI, G. B.; BOVIO, L. Probabilistic measurement evaluation for theimplementation of the Measuring Instrument Directive

X

DE SILVA, G. M. S. Development of metrology in developing economies XDINU, D.; POENARU, M.-M.; DINU, C. Considerations on the evolution of

metrological conceptsX

DUNMILL, I. New cooperation agreement on metrology to combat technicalbarriers to trade and spur economic growth

X

FLOCKEN, D.; TONINI, D. The pattern approval process: The past, present andfuture as seen by US instrument manufacturers

X

GARRIDO GALERA, V. On the new frame of the legal metrology in Spain XGAUCHER, R. Extension of the ILAC/OIML Memorandum of Understanding

(MoU) to the IAF (International Accreditation Forum)X

IACOBESCU, F. et al. Preoccupation at national level, in Romania, concerningstandardization in the field of electrical energy

X

JUST, S. The Memorandum of Understanding between ISO and the OIML XKLENOVSKY, P. Legal metrological control over measuring instruments in use:

current situationX

KOCHSIEK, M. Thailand: Progress in legal metrology XKOCHSIEK, M. Technical cooperation between India and Germany in the field of

legal metrologyX

KOCHSIEK, M. Improvement of legal metrology in India XKOCHSIEK, M.; SCHULZ, W. Modernization of legal metrology in Germany XKONONOGOV, S. A. Strategy used in implementing the new Federal Law on the

assurance of measurement uniformityX

LAGAUTERIE, G. The evolution of the metrological control of measuringinstruments in France

X

LAGAUTERIE, G.; PECCHIOLI, G. Accreditation and legal metrology in France XLALLA-RODRIGUES, D. The Inter-American Metrology System (SIM) 2003/2004 XMARNEWECK, J. The need for harmonization of technical regulations within

Africa to facilitate across border tradeX

MCCONNELL, K. MERCOSUR: Mercado Comun del Sur XMELHEM, O. Jordanian Metrology System: Reality and aspirations XNITESCU, D. Design a successful architecture for measurement control system in

legal metrologyX

OOSTERMAN, C.; DIXON, P. NoBoMet: A European platform for Notified Bodiesworking in Legal Metrology

X

OPPERMANN, H. NIST’s role in weights and measures XPOHLMANN FILHO, O. et al. Innovaciones de INMETRO en la gestión de la Red

Brasileira de Metrología Legal y CalidadX

PONCE, R.; VASALLO, A.; LEONARD, H. The impacts of metrology XPONCE, Y. R. Conformity assessment and metrology XPONCE, Y. R.; LEONARD, A. R. H. Public perception of metrology in the Republic

of CubaX

PONCE, Y. R.; VERA, R. C. S.; PALOU, H. M. S. Metrology and the various forms ofnon-state employment

X

ROCHA, G. M.; LANDIM, R. P. Inmetro’s Metrology Executive Master’s DegreeCourse

X


31

commodity-based, accuracy in measurement is a way toprotect the economy. Economic losses grow as conse-quence of high uncertainty [2]. Technical barriers are alsorecognized as the major obstacle between developingcountries and countries with economies in transition [22].

As countries are becoming more connected, harmoniza-tion, mutual confidence, and recognition are becomingmore necessary to facilitate trade [45]. In another conse-quence of globalization, manufacturers are producing mea-suring instruments that are distributed to a wide range ofcountries, yet another reason that the harmonization ofrequirements worldwide is desirable [11]. Consequently,and because an understanding of in-service operationshas a larger impact on consumer protection, conformityassessment activities (CAAs) have been introduced as asubstitute for initial verifications, especially in free trade

areas [28]. These CAAs allow a manufactory to carry outthe activities of legal metrological control themselvesunder certain conditions, and mutual acceptance agree-ments are possible mainly due to the harmonization ofrequirements [17]. However, CAAs must be followed by asurveillance process covering the testing or inspection ofsamples on the market, as well as inspections of themanufacturer, system quality audits and the assessmentof production processes [57].

The 1980s and 1990s were characterized by thedevelopment and establishment of competency require-ments for calibration and testing laboratories, as well asthe creation of certifying bodies. The OIML CertificatedSystem for Measuring Instruments was also imple-mented in 1991 [17], allowing the recognition of typeapproval between countries. The next decade saw theimplementation of another tool to connect countries, theOIML Mutual Acceptance Arrangement (MAA), whichallows countries to use the results of tests of measuringinstruments performed in accredited laboratories in differ-ent countries. The MAA does need improvement, however:there are still technical barriers for manufacturers inmany countries [12]. Through prepackages, OIML hasstarted work to develop a mark that will facilitate thecommercialization of prepackaged goods [25].

International trade plays a major role in legalmetrology, and international commerce is highly relevantto national economies due to globalization. Technicalbarriers to trade are still an obstacle to be overcome. Theformation of economic blocks is an additional remainingchallenge to harmonizing regulations in metrology; inEurope, for example, manufacturers located in developingcountries are subject to the same requirements as manu-facturers in developed countries.

Table 4 (continued)

Selected study Economyandsociety

Internationaltrade

Legalmetrologicalcontrol

Legal metrology indevelopingcountries

RODRIGUES FILHO, B. A. et al. Enhancements of the legal metrological control inBrazil due to after repair verification

X

RODRIGUES FILHO, B. A.; SILVA, M. E. The PSIE platform as a tool to improvemetrological control in Brazil

X

RUNSHENG, D.; JIANPING, H. The relationship between calibration, verificationand metrological confirmation

X

SANDERS, R. Why do we regulate measuring instruments used for trade XSCHULZ, W. Changes in consumer protection in legal metrology as a result of

new technologiesX

SEILER, E.; DUNMILL, I. Announcing the OIML Award for Excellent contributionsfrom Developing Countries to legal metrology

X

SENNA, M. J. H. Legal metrology in the Inter-American Metrology System (SIM) XSILVA, A. N. R. S. et al. Development of a system to increase the legal

metrological control of measuring instruments in BrazilX

THOMPSON, A. Perspectives on assurance of conformity to type XTICONA, J. M.; FROTA, M. N. Assessment of the economic impact of product

certification: A significant area of application of measurementX

VELYCHKO, O.; GORDIYENKO, T. The use of metrological terms and SI units inenvironmental guides and international standards

X

VELYCHKO, O.; GORDIYENKO, T. Implementation of the European Directive onMeasuring Instruments in Ukraine

X

VELYCHKO, O.; GORDIYENKO, T. Metrological activities between the TCs of theOIML and other International Organizations

X

VUKOVIC, N. M.; KOVSE, I. Slovenian experiences in establishing a modernsystem of legal metrology

X

WILLIS, I. Afrimets a perspective of the legal metrology leg and progress to date X

Fig. 2. Results of each step of the systematic process.

Table 5Number of selected studies by category.

Category Number of studies

Economy and society 11International trade 09Legal metrological control 18Metrology in developing countries 21


32

3.3. Legal metrological control

To establish a legal metrology system, legal require-ments should be applied where they are essential to localdevelopment. The understanding of concepts of measure-ment is also important. The international vocabulary ofmetrology (and legal metrology) and a guide to theexpressions of uncertainty in measurement were the toolsintroduced to harmonize the concepts [21]. Regulation isusually also applied to measurement instrumentsregarding health, safety, and some industrial activities. Inaddition to the legal framework, national standards,traceability and an organizational structure staffed bycompetent people are necessary. A national metrologyinstitute (NMI) is required to keep and maintain standards,but private laboratories are also needed in order to spreadthe traceability of national standards [19].

Legal metrological control comprises the activities inlegal metrology that are responsible for metrologicalassurances in measuring instruments. This set of activitiesincludes the following:

! Legal control of measuring instruments.! Metrological supervision.! Metrological expertise.

The legal control of measuring instruments correspondsto type approval and initial and subsequent verifications(mandatory periodic verification and after repairverification).

While type approval and verifications are called firstlevel activities [34], a second level of activities, metrologi-cal supervision, is necessary for more complex measure-ment instruments. Metrological supervision comprises:

! Quality system surveillance (in authorized bodies forself-verification).! Market surveillance (in the measuring instrument

before it is sent to market).! Field surveillance (in the measuring instrument in use).

While quality system surveillance and market surveil-lance are focused on the manufactory, field surveillanceis concerned with the instrument in use.

Technical developments in measurement instrumentshave also influenced legal metrological control; becausemost instruments today are controlled by software, confi-dence in measurement is connected to software reliability.These factors must also be part of the development ofsurveillance [53].

In France after 2001, the modernization of the legalmetrology system was based on implementing the secondlevel activities executed by the government, defined as thesurveillance of operators; surveillance of instruments inservice; and market surveillance. The first level that canbe executed by the private sector comprises type approval;initial verification; verification of installation; and periodicverification [34].

To implement metrological control to assure confidencein measurements, two basic systems are currently in use:the first is financially supported by the user/manufactory

of the instrument by charging an administrative fee (theDutch model), and second is supported by the government(the American model). The Dutch model is applied withinthe European Union and to activities carried out by a singlegovernment body, mostly the NMI. The system itself isresponsible for confidence once there are operations infixed intervals. In the American model, the user of theinstrument is responsible for keeping that instrumentcorrectly calibrated, and the operations carried out by thegovernment, whether state or municipality, merge inspec-tion and verification. The disadvantage of this model is itsinherent dependence on government funding [28].

Especially in the US, to monitor the national system, theNational Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) isresponsible for developing regulations for measuringinstruments, maintaining national standards, and ensuringAmerican compliance with legal metrology standardsthroughout the world [42]. In 2004 it was revealed thatlegal metrology would also incorporate a quality manage-ment system for the production of measurement instru-ments and the manufacturer’s declaration of individualinstruments’ conformity with the requirements of the ini-tial verification; subsequent verification to provide marketsurveillance; and the exchange of information amongcountries with established mutual acceptance arrange-ments with regard to type approval [23].

In Europe, the Measuring Instruments Directive (MID)was created in order to eliminate legislative barriers totrade measurement instruments. It was elaborated tocover 95% of all measurement instruments sold in Europeand specifies the metrological performance of thoseinstruments. Although the MID is a directive that is appliedto measurement instruments controlled in the EU, there isa great interest from the international community forseveral reasons. First, it is a document about conformityassessment; it also employs the latest techniques inEuropean legislation and is one of the New Approachdirectives. Furthermore, it brings together the principlesof efficient regulation and minimal restriction ofcommerce and technology, and it must be followed byanyone who wishes to export measurement instrumentsto the EU [8]. The implementation of the MID mobilizedthe EU countries and generated expectations concerningmetrological control in its member states [24]. Its imple-mentation may promote innovation, thereby leading tosocial benefits and customer satisfaction [18].

Germany, which has a well-established legal metrologystructure, executes about two million verifications peryear, covering measurement instruments and thesurveillance of repairers and prepackaged, as well as theverification of 18 million electric, gas and heat metersannually. The modernization of German legal metrologyis focused on new technologies, particularly because mea-surement instruments are becoming more complex andthus demand more extensive tests. One example is the cre-ation of software requirements for metrological instru-ments. Another aspect is surveillance, especially becauseglobal competition has led to tighter profit margins, inthe energy market, for example, and the risk is high [32].

French regulators have also discussed accreditation inlegal metrology as a way to harmonize the proceedings


33

performed by notified bodies. One of the points discussedis that previous authorization is necessary prior to accred-itation because a body’s competence can only be evaluatedwhen it is already carrying out the tasks of legal metrologycontrol. It is also noted that accreditation does not renderstate surveillance unnecessary [35].

Information systems and therefore the amount of dataavailable in legal metrology have also been increasing inrecent years. The NOBOMET platform was implementedto maintain a high quality level for services regardingnotified bodies’ performance of MID-based conformityassessments in the EU [41]. A suite of software was alsoproposed to assist in the implementation of MID, modelingthe behavior of the measurement instruments under fieldconditions [18]. To manage data flows, enterprisesresource planning (ERP) systems are also in use [56].Further, to bolster the impartiality of repairs executed bynotified bodies, a supervision system is being implemented[50], allowing fraud to be more easily identified [10]. Inafter repair verification specifically, the number of verifiedmeasuring instruments are increasing significantly [49], asare the number of information systems implemented [43].An information system to evaluate prepackaged measure-ment instruments is also under development [40].

Legal metrological control aims to prevent error in mea-surement instruments in excess of a maximum level estab-lished by regulations and guarantee consumer protectionand fair competition. The amount of data required toimplement this type of control includes errors for eachmeasuring instrument on the market during verifications,specifications of repairs executed by notified bodies anderrors in after-repair verifications. This data flow may pro-vide relevant information that can be applied to improvecontrol, such as the variation of measurement errors alongthe life of the measurement instrument, the quality ofrepairs, and other factors. Information systems tools allowvast amounts of data to be analyzed and must be consid-ered for use in legal metrology.

3.4. Legal metrology in developing countries

Recently, the research interest in developing countrieshas increased, mainly because of the growth in theireconomies [7] and the widespread perception of theimportance of legal metrology to a solid economy [15].It is also noteworthy that the development of legalmetrology in developing countries is especially focusedon consumer protection. Some developing countries tendto follow the legal metrology system already in use indeveloped countries mainly due to the advantages of tech-nology transfer, but this course may be inappropriatewhen there are significant differences between the needsof their economies and societies and that of the modelcountry [7]. To incentivize and highlight the importanceof legal metrology in developing countries, OIML has estab-lished the Award for Excellent Contributions to LegalMetrology from Developing Countries [54].

This section of the review aims to illustrate theadvances in legal metrology in developing countries overthe last ten years by briefly describing the relevant pub-lished studies in the sample.

In Cuba, legal metrology has been characterized by indi-cators measuring its scientific, technological, economic,social and environmental impact [44]. The impact of legalmetrology was further shown by case studies [46], andthe industrial perspective on legal metrology was shownby studies of small and medium size enterprises (SME).These studies concluded that the lack of knowledge aboutthe importance of measurements is a cause for concern[47].

In the Americas, the Inter-American Metrology System(SIM) was established with the purpose of building andsupporting a metrological structure, facilitating interna-tional trade and ensuring uniformity of measurements[36]. The SIM has allowed the exchange of expertise andmaterials between countries with developed legal metrol-ogy systems and countries lacking such services. SIM’smain activity has been training activities, demand forwhich is expected to be high once legal metrologystructures have been implanted and begin to expandamong members [55]. In South America, the MetrologyCommittee of Mercosul works on harmonizing legislationto be incorporated into member states’ legislation [38].Additionally, as a response to provide qualified humanresources, Brazil has created an executive master’s degreethat covers legal metrology [48].

In Europe, although Romania is a developing country,its standardization efforts in the field of electrical energymeasurements have been studied as a result of newlegislation aiming at providing consumer protections thatare compliant with the requirements of the EuropeanUnion [26]. Romanian manufacturers are committed tocomplying with European directives, aligning theirproducts to the EU market and increasing Romania’s com-petitiveness in Europe [14].

Slovenia, another member of the EU, follows the EU’slegal metrology system, and has assigned the outsourcingof verifications to designated bodies that performed morethan 90% of verification in 2008. The national requirementsfor these bodies are providing adequate support to thenational economy; the ability to evaluate both the privateand public sectors; and possessing the infrastructure forverification and adequate metrological supervision [63].Like Romania, Ukraine is working to harmonize its legalmetrology system within the European Directive onMeasuring Instruments in order to ensure a free traderelationship in the European Union [60].

Jordan is an example of a developing country implant-ing legal metrological controls while facing limitedresources, a small number of industries, and limitedmetrology knowledge and equipment [39]. The role ofthe Jordan Institution for Standards and Metrology (JISM)is to ensure that only safe, good quality products enterthe market. Despite its limitations, Jordan has 14 types ofmeasurement instruments under legal control as well asprepackaged products.

In 2008, Russia adopted a new metrology law establish-ing the basis for a metrology system that protects citizensand assists national economic development [33].

In Asia, Thailand has German support to develop anational legal metrology system. Its actual infrastructurecomprises five verification offices where 160 officers and


34

160 assistants inspect scales, fuel dispensers, liquefied pet-roleum gas (LPG), medical measurement units, humiditymeters and prepackaged products [29].

India selected Germany as a model to implement theprivatization of some legal metrology activities in both ini-tial and subsequent verification and type approval due topublic sector difficulties in following the growingresponsibilities of legal metrology. India has establishedseveral criteria for the delegated private bodies, includingorganizational independence, financial independence, pro-fessional integrity, technical competency, staff qualifica-tion, impartiality, insurance coverage, and professionalsecrecy. However, the overall responsibility for ensuringreliable legal metrology services remains with the govern-ment [30]. Ultimately, the authorities plan to incorporatethe European Measuring Instrument Directive in theIndian implementation of legal metrology [31].

In Africa, measurement systems do not fulfill therequirements of an effective measuring system, especiallythose based on colonial measurements that operate in anisolated manner. However, the increasing concern for theimportance of legal metrology to society and the economyhas led Africa, with German support, to create the SIM-based Intra-Africa Metrology System (AFRIMETS) [64] inorder to harmonize measurements in Africa [15], basedon the harmonization of regulations among countries [37].

It is evident that over the last decade, developing coun-tries have begun implementing legal metrology systemsand recognizing the importance of metrology to theireconomies and consumer protection. Agreements amongcountries, both developed and developing, facilitate theexchange of experiences. The SIM in the Americas, theWELMEC in Europe and the AFRIMETS in Africa are exam-ples of success. Other agreements that are active but werenot discussed in sample articles include the Asia PacificLegal Metrology Forum (APLMF), Southern African devel-opment Community Cooperation in Legal Metrology(SADCMEL), Euro-Asia Cooperation of MetrologicalNational Institutions (COOMET), Euro-MediterraneanLegal Metrology Forum (EMLMF), that are regional con-gregations of countries that aim to implement and improvelegal metrology activities, leading to cooperation amongcountries that facilitates trade and the dissemination ofmetrology knowledge in training sessions.

4. Conclusions

The systematic literature review process allows us toidentify relevant studies in a field of knowledge throughthe use of a consolidated search methodology. Legalmetrological control comprises the activities in legalmetrology that are responsible for providing confidencein measurements that impact both society and the econ-omy; this study has presented the relevant contributionsto this field over the last 10 years.

A systematic search methodology allowed us to identify59 studies that were published in journals or proceedingsthat discuss advances in legal metrology. These selectedstudies were categorized in four groups: economy andsociety, international trade, legal metrological control and

legal metrology in developing countries. A table was alsoassembled to facilitate the identification of the studies ineach category.

Finding a way to measure the economic and socialimpact of legal metrology remains a goal for the field.Economic distortion may be an indicator that can verifythe quantitative impact of legal metrology.

In legal metrological control, the spread of informationsystems that manage and treat data and the use ofinformation technology in legal metrology are growingtrends, allowing rapidity and reliability in inspection anddecision-making processes.

The international harmonization of regulations may bethe great issue to facilitate the growth of the global market,and initiatives like the Mutual Acceptance Arrangementare tracing a way to move past technical barriers. Onceinternational trade is related to government politics andnot metrological issues, however, the developments ininternational trade metrology may include partnershipsbetween OIML and the World Trade Organization.

The development of legal metrology in developingcountries is a broad field to be explored, and manycountries are still lacking a system. Although partnershipsbetween countries with established legal metrologysystems and developing countries have shown real improve-ments, regional cooperation should not be discounted.

Acknowledgment

The authors acknowledge the support of the NationalInstitute of Metrology, Quality and Technology – Inmetro,which enabled us to carry out this research.

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[58] J.M. Ticona, M.N. Frota, Assessment of the economic impact ofproduct certification: a significant area of application ofmeasurement, Measurement 41 (1) (2008) 88–104.

[59] O. Velychko, T. Gordiyenko, The use of metrological terms and SIunits in environmental guides and international standards,Measurement 40 (2) (2007) 202–212.

[60] O. Velychko, T. Gordiyenko, Implementation of the Europeandirective on measuring instruments in Ukraine, OIML Bull. LI (2)(2010) 23–29.

[61] O. Velychko, T. Gordiyenko, Metrological activities between the TCsof the OIML and other International Organizations, OIML Bull. LI (4)(2010) 14–18.

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[63] N.M. Vukovic, I. Kovse, Slovenian experiences in establishing amodern system of legal metrology, OIML Bull. L (2) (2009) 22–27.

[64] I. Willis, Afrimets a perspective of the legal metrology leg andprogress to date, in: 4th CAFMET – International Conference ofMetrology Proceedings, Pretoria, South Africa, March 2014.


36

5 ARTIGO 2 – MODELO DE INSUMO-PRODUTO PARA AVALIAÇÃO DA

DISTORÇÃO ECONÔMICA NA METROLOGIA LEGAL

O objetivo deste capítulo é atender aos objetivos específicos dois, três e quatro deste

trabalho. O artigo foi submetido à revista Measurement - Journal of the Measurement

Confederation e está atualmente sob revisão.

O artigo apresenta a formulação matemática baseada no modelo de insumo-produto

para o cálculo da distorção econômica. O modelo estático de IP relaciona a produção

industrial com a demanda final, por meio da matriz inversa de Leontief. O modelo permite

identificar como a variação de um insumo em um determinado processo, ou uma alteração na

demanda final, impacta toda a economia. O modelo considera que o produto de um processo é

o insumo de outro e avalia todas as interconexões entre processos produtivos em uma

economia.

A formulação matemática proposta para o cálculo da distorção econômica introduz um

fator δ, que representa um desvio devido à medição de um determinado produto no modelo

IP, e possibilita determinar como este desvio afeta toda a produção. Desta forma é possível

identificar o impacto de um desvio de medição que se propaga pela economia devido às

interconexões dos processos de produção e demanda final, além de avaliar financeiramente o

impacto do erro de medição de um produto na economia, uma vez que as matrizes de insumo-

produto são representadas em valores monetários.

Foram realizadas simulações utilizando produtos-chave na economia brasileira. Para a

realização das simulações do cálculo de distorção econômica nos setores de commodities,

combustíveis, mineração e serviços de utilidade pública (água, gás e esgoto) foi utilizado

como suporte o software Scilab, versão 5.5.2. A programação da rotina de simulação também

é apresentada no artigo para o qual foram utilizados os dados da mais recente matriz IP

brasileira, divulgada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, em 2005. Os erros de

medição simulados (δ) variaram de 0,01% até 5% de forma a se obter o comportamento da

distorção econômica para cada produto simulado.

Em seguida foi realizado o cálculo da distorção econômica com dados empíricos de

erros dos instrumentos de medição no setor de combustíveis automotivos no Brasil, advindos

de verificações realizadas nestes instrumentos pelo INMETRO no ano de 2014. Para a

simulação foi utilizado o erro médio de medição no setor e ao erro foi associado o desvio-

padrão como indicador para incerteza da medição. Ressalta-se que para esse caso empírico a

escala de medição de erro para o setor de combustível varia de valores negativos a positivos,

37

gerando uma compensação de valores que leva à média aritmética (𝑥) próxima de zero e um

desvio-padrão (𝜎) superior à média, sendo: 𝑥 = 7.99 ml e 𝜎 = 45,99 ml para gasolina; 𝑥 =

4,22 ml e 𝜎 = 40,83 ml para etanol; 𝑥 = 6,68 ml e 𝜎 = 49,52 ml para diesel. No caso, um erro

positivo significa perda do consumidor na transação comercial e valores negativos perda do

vendedor.

Para permitir comparações foram simulados os valores de distorção econômica para a

Capacidade de Medição e Calibração (CMC), que representa a melhor medição possível a ser

realizada no país para a grandeza volume. Como este valor é realizado em condições

laboratoriais controladas e usa padrões de medição com incertezas muito inferiores aos

utilizados em campo, o valor é apenas uma referência teórica para comparação. Também é

apresentado o cálculo de simulação com os valores dos erros máximos permitidos (EMP) para

o setor, de forma a identificar, segundo as normas internacionais, os valores em unidade

monetária admitidos como perdas no setor.

Os resultados mostram que dentre os produtos simulados, o maior impacto econômico

é registrado no setor de utilidades (água, energia, gás e esgoto), no qual um desvio de 1%

ocasiona uma distorção econômica de US$ 995.679.155,81 que representa 0,112% do PIB.

Também foi observado um comportamento linear da distorção econômica em função do erro

de medição, sendo R2 = 0,999 para todos os produtos simulados.

Para o setor de combustíveis automotivos (gasolina, etanol e diesel), a simulação

mostra uma distorção econômica no setor de US$ (25.505.627,88 + 190.307.948,09). Esse

resultado representa que há uma incerteza no setor de combustíveis variando de

US$ -164.802.320,21 a +215.813.575,97. Assim, não é possível concluir, com base no

estimador de incerteza de medição utilizado, se o impacto na economia é contra ou a favor do

consumidor. Os valores apresentados pelos erros máximos permitidos no setor variam de

US$ -414.376.810,01 a +414.376.810,01. Portanto, pode-se concluir que o setor de

combustíveis no Brasil está adequado, conforme os EMP de acordo com as recomendações

internacionais, uma vez que o valor de distorção econômica é inferior ao calculado para o

EMP. Finalmente, a incerteza de medição associada CMC apresenta uma distorção econômica

de US$ 8.280.768,82, sendo aproximadamente vinte vezes inferior à apresentada em campo.

Este resultado inferior é esperado, uma vez que as medições para o cálculo da CMC são

realizadas em condições laboratoriais controladas, diferentemente da medição de combustível

no mercado.

38

Os grandes valores de incerteza para a distorção econômica advêm dos valores de

incerteza provenientes dos erros de medições dos instrumentos, uma vez que os erros variam

de valores negativos à positivos e os valores de desvio padrão referem-se à distribuição dos

respectivos erros em torno da média.

Como conclusão, estas simulações permitem avaliar e comparar os desvios dos

instrumentos utilizados no setor de combustíveis em campo, com os valores teóricos de

melhor medição e de perdas admissíveis para o setor, posicionando as perdas no Brasil com

relação aos valores de referência internacionais.

39

An Input-Output model to evaluate the economic distortion in trade metrology

Bruno A. Rodrigues Filhoa,b; Rodrigo F. Gonçalvesb a National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology, Legal Metrology Directory, Nossa Senhora das Graças Av., 50 Xerém - Duque de Caxias – RJ, ZIP Code: 25250-020, Brazil

b Paulista University, Industrial Engineering Department, Dr. Bacelar St., 1212, 4th floor – Vila Clementino – São Paulo – SP – ZIP Code: 04026-002, Brazil

Corresponding Author: Bruno A. Rodrigues Filho (+55)-21-2679-9175, [email protected]

Abstract: The present study proposes a Leontief Input-Output based model to identify the impact of the deviations in measuring instruments used in trade over the various sectors on the economy. The Brazilian input-output matrix is used in order to evaluate how a measurement deviation propagates throughout the different sectors affecting the whole economy. Simulations are conducted using strategy sector of the economy for products that have their value based on a measure: utility services (water, gas, electricity and sewer), fuel, commodities and mining, showing that a distortion of 1% in utility services would represent US$ 995,679,155.81 meaning 0.112% of the Brazilian GDP. A case test where conducted combining the proposed model and the measurement errors from the reports of the Brazilian National Metrology Institute for the fuel sector. The present model has also shown to be a usable tool to determine which areas demand attention for regulation in metrology, in order to maintain under control their impacts on economy.

Keywords: Legal Metrology, Asymmetry, Leontief, Regulation

1. Introduction

The commerce involving weights and measures is responsible for a significant part of the countries’ GDP. Deviations provided by aggregate value of measures along a product chain may cause expressive distortions to the economy. The monetary unit associated to this market asymmetry implies financial losses to the economy. Studies conducted by various nations have demonstrated the relevance of products with value based on measures in both local and global markets (Birch, 2003 and Sanders, 2011and Swann, 2009).

It was realized very early in the human history the importance of the social and economic consequences of trade involving weights and measures, as an example in China 3500 year ago where a system of mass, length and capacity was in use to control the market (Juran, 1995) and in Jordan, 3000 year ago where the prophet Shoa’aib demanded to his people not use double weights standards (Melhem, 2009).

Legal metrology is responsible for apply regulations to measuring instruments that impact both economy and society (VIM, 2012), establishing requirement, as maximum permissible errors, in order to provide the necessary accuracy for fair exchange, maintaining the distortion of what is being negotiated to acceptable levels, arising the confidence on the market (Birch, 2004).

Charles Babbage, (Babbage, 1832) stated that the transactions costs also involve the price to verify the goodness of what the consumer is purchasing. In trade metrology these costs involve the legal metrology activities conducted by the state, such as verifications and surveillance.

Moreover, society and others institutions demand for rational use of the national resources, so to justify the budged applied in legal metrology, it is vital to evaluate quantitatively the welfare derivate from the legal metrological control (Stiefel, 1973). Additionally, the impact of metrology and measurement technologies are not well known, so the budget allocated to researches in the field are under constant pressure (Bowns et al., 2003). The economic distortion due to measurement deviations can impact the economy in both international trade, where deviations of the standards between the exporter and the importer can cause an asymmetry; and domestic market, where the deviation cause a distortion between buyer and seller, causing financial losses.

The distortions on the economy have been exhaustively studied for laureate economists such as Kenneth Arrow (1974), Akerlof (1970), Spence (1973), Rothschild and Stiglitz (2001). In legal metrology the study of the economic distortion provided by inaccuracy in measuring instruments in the market have been investigated in studies conducted by Wayne Stiefel (1973), John Birch

40

(2003) and Usuda and Henson (2012), nevertheless a consolidate model to evaluate the impact of legal metrology in economy is an open issue (Rodrigues Filho and Gonçalves, 2015). A series of models are under constant development in order to obtain more accurate models to evaluate the impact on the economy.

The Input-Output Model, hereinafter called I-O model, developed by Wassily Leontief allows to identify the interconnections among the various sector of economy due to the relation the output of a sector as the input to others sector of economy (Leontief, 1975). One of the mains aspects of the model is that it is possible to see how the change in one demand affects the entire economy.

The objective of the present study is to introduce a formulation based on the I-O model to compute the economic distortion due to measurement deviations of the instruments used in the market, considering how an individual distortion in one economic sector propagates throughout the various productive sectors impacting the entire economy.

Thus, the goal of the present study is to use a very consolidate model in economy, providing a robust database, contributing to the state of art once it incorporates the interconnection of the productive sector on the economy, since a deviation due to a measurement error in one input will affect an output in a different sector.

The simulations use the Brazilian I-O matrix and were conducted in key sector of Brazilian economy (fuel, mining, utility sector and commodities), in order to obtain the curves of the economic distortion based on the measurement deviation.

A case test is also conducted using empirical information of measurement deviations of fuel dispensers used in the market obtained from the information system used by the National Metrology Institute (NMI) in Brazil, INMETRO. A simulation using Calibration and Measurement Capabilities (CMC) and the maximum permissible errors (MPE) according to regulation are also conducted to fuel disperser in order to compare the empirical information to the theoretical capabilities.

A comparison among the impact of the deviations on the measures and their impact to the Brazilian GDP is also conducted in order to allowed comparisons among different countries in future studies.

2. Literature review

Kenneth Arrow, laureate Nobel Prize in 1972 in economic science has contributed extensively studying the trust in economic transactions, and stated that there is always an element of trust in commercial transactions, and complement that much of backwardness in the world regards the lack of mutual confidence (Arrow, 1974).

In commercial transactions involving measuring instruments an addition component is always present, despite trust: an error associated to the accuracy of the device and consequently a monetary value is associated to this deviation. These errors are higher as the instrument is less accurate. This value, in monetary unit, is described as an economic distortion, or asymmetry of information.

This asymmetry of the market, also understood as a lack of knowledge of good quality products in a given market may lead their exclusion due to societal inefficiency to asymmetric information flow (Stiglitz, 2002). An economic approach connects the measurement deviations to an amount in monetary units, where this money in risk can be treated as lack of information about the product.

In 2001, a study of this distortion was laureate with the Nobel Prize in economic science, where the authors, Akerlof, Spence, Rothschild and Stiglitz investigated how distortions affect social and economic institutions (Akerlof, 1970 and Spence, 1973 and Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976).

However, in metrology the authors agree that the literature on the economics is very sparse (Bowns et al., 2003 and Swann, 2009). Additionally, many studies are conducted by national institutes considering national strategic aspects and they are not published.

In the metrology field, Stiefel (1973) presented the importance of the impact of the money related to the measurement deviation in a instrument. His work proposed a statistical analysis to calculate the monetary value of device inaccuracies’ using the quantity of goods traded and the average of measurement errors of instruments used in the market. Despite the efforts his work underestimates this distortion once it considers only errors higher of instruments used in the market that are higher than a maximum permissible error. However, the goal of his article is to use empirical data to compute the economy distortion.

In#2000 a study explores the benefits of R&D of metrology aiming to justifying the budgetary

41

allocation of resources to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the US. Both formal and informal impact studies regarding the impact of metrology involving cholesterol measurements, traceable reference materials, automotive industry, and natural gas. About the economy, the study is focused mainly on the international trade, presenting the growing international markets and the initiative of countries on harmonization of standards (Semerjian and Watters Jr., 2000). For these impact studies, the methodology comprehends the investments and costs of the sectors and decreasing losses due to measuring improvements.

Consecutively, in 2002 a study conducted in the United Kingdom measures the impact of measurements in its infra-technology. It is used a total factor productivity (TFP) where investments in R&D, capital, production elasticity, scientific knowledge were considered (Temple and Williams, 2002). Subsequently, in 2003 a study proposed an econometric model, known as mapping measurement impact (MMI), used by the UK Department of Trade and Industry, to measure the economic benefits from R&D. The model uses the economic base growth of an industrial sector, its turnover and an extra growth provided by a measurement improvement. This extra growth is given based on experts estimations, given a qualitative contribution to the model (Bowns et al., 2003).

Subsequently a report by John Birch (2003), with an economic analysis of metrology shows a compilation of impact studies and the literature review focusing on legal metrology in various countries. These studies were conducted by national institutes and consultants and were not published. Consequently, the point of view published by Birch is showed in the present literature review:

a) National Bureau of Standards from 1967 to 1977 computed the impact of metrology as the sum of labor, equipment in all industry, and subsequently including the added value.

b) Studies conducted by Measurement Canada in the 1980´s identified the value of goods traded by the instruments creating an estimate benefit/cost indicator comparing to the national system costs. Also in Canada a study conducted by KPMG Consulting to the Institute for National Measurement Standards, in 2001, applied a model that measure the public component of maintaining primary metrological standards using the costs of registration for ISO 9000 and 14000 as an

indicator of the companies willingness to pay for traceability.

c) The Department of Trade & Industry in the United Kingdom from 1988 to 1999 published a number of studies about measurements, economic impact and R&D. The last reviewed study, in 1999, uses a methodology comparing the number of measurement related patents to the total, determining the economic growth provided by measurements.

d) The European Measurement Project published a few studies between 2001 and 2002 using a ratio of patents related to measurements as an indicator to determine the contribution of metrology to the economy, combining to the total expenses of the industry in the metrology field.

Thereafter, in 2004, (Birch, 2004) discusses about quantifying the benefits of legal metrology, claiming that the advantages of the state’s intervention in trade has not been measured, i.e. the economic distortion (Birch, 2004).

Moreover, in 2009 a report from the United Kingdom about the impact of metrology to their national infrastructure pointed that improvements in measurements reduces the asymmetry between buyers and sellers, a common source of market failure (Swann, 2009).

Afterwards a series of studies reported the importance of metrology to the economy: as how the harmonization is an effective tool to decrease the asymmetry in trade among countries (Ticona and Frota, 2008) and a way to minimize technical barriers to trade due to harmonization of metrology among countries (Dunmill, 2009); the relation of metrology to the Gross Domestic Product (Carstens, 2010); the relevance of the state in regulating the market once it is more cost-effective than deregulating it (Sanders, 2011); the relationship between uncertainty in measuring instruments and economic losses in trade (Ardianto, 2012); and surveys to identify the awareness of enterprises about the economic impact of metrology and conformity to the economy (Ponce et al., 2013).

Furthermore, Usuda and Henson (2012) proposed a model to quantify the losses due to deviation of standards between buyer and sellers, using previous known about the quality distribution of the product and the deviation of measurements standards (Usuda and Henson, 2012). As the knowledge about deviations of standards of the traders is necessary as

42

input to the model, it is more recommended to trade between enterprises and international trade. The authors also proposed the use of the CMC, however it is not possible to affirm that the instruments in the field are according to the CMC once they are subject to external factors such as weather conditions (temperature, humidity), and operator´s inaccuracy. Otherwise, the CMC is an estimative when no other information about deviations is available. The authors also highlighted that there are no reports about the economic impact of measuring instruments inaccuracies using empirical information.

Most of the literature that aims to estimate the impact of the metrology to the economy presents theoretical studies, surveys and test case using secondary indicators as number of patents, expenditures and costs for certification. There are no consolidated models that can be applied to every economy in order to identify the losses due to measurement deviations in the market, allowing comparisons among countries.

3. Legal control of measuring instruments

The legal metrology is responsible for establishing requirements to measuring instruments. Different areas are submitted to regulation, according to their impact, where the most common are: trade, health, security and environmental. A few examples of regulated instruments in different countries are fuel dispensers, taximeters, commercial scales, sphygmomanometers, speed cameras and gas analyzers.

Each country determines the instruments to be regulated based on its national necessities. Commonly, the National Metrology Institutes (NMI) are responsible for metrological legislation. And, as the markets are more globalized, these regulations are mostly based on international recommendations to harmonize not only internal markets but also international trade.

International organizations as OIML (International Organization of Legal Metrology) are the forum for discussion among countries to determine recommendation to be followed by its members. Regional organizations as AFRIMETS (Intra-Africa Metrology System), SADCMEL (Southern African development Community Cooperation in Legal Metrology) and SIM (Inter-American Metrology System) are examples of regional initiatives to harmonize and change experiences on the legal metrology field (Rodrigues Filho and Gonçalves, 2015).

Focusing on measuring instruments that impact the market, once a regulation is issued, a series of activities known as legal metrological control are responsible to monitor and prevent misuses and irregularities.

The international recommendations set maximum permissible error (MPE) as the maximum acceptable losses between seller and buyers in order to harmonize the trade and the legal metrological control activities are conducted in order to guarantee the accordance to the MPE.

These activities are divided in three levels: type approval, verifications and surveillance (Klenovsky, 2006).

Type approval represents the accordance of an instrument to regulation, regarding to its constructions specifications, accuracy and precision. The device can be produced or imported only after a type approval certificate.

Verifications can be divided among initial, periodic and after repair. Initial verification is carried out after the instrument is manufactured, before it is put in the market, to verify its accordance to the type approval. Periodical and after repair verifications are conducted by notified bodies to attest if the instruments in the market accomplish the maximum permissible errors established in regulations and to identify any modification that can interfere on its metrological characteristics.

Finally, the surveillance represents the activity responsible to identify the accordance to regulations, as misuses of instruments and frauds. For its legal aspects, the authorities conduct this level of legal metrological control.

Specifically in Brazil, which is the test case in the present research, the National Institute of Metrology of Quality and Technology – INMETRO, the Brazilian NMI is the body responsible for regulation in legal metrology and it is also responsible for conducting type approvals. Both verification and surveillance are carried out by 26 notified public bodies throughout the country (Silva et al., 2006).

4. Research Method

The present research was based on the I-O Leontief static analysis, showed in section 5.1. Subsequently, we formulated the mathematical model to measure the economic distortion, introducing a deviation δ due to measurement errors in the classical I-O model that represents a percentage deviation on products that have their value based on a measure,

43

showed in section 5.2. Then, in 5.3, some limitations of the proposed model were also discussed.

Thereafter, our formulation was applied to some key products, representing important economic sectors: commodities, fuel, mining and utility services. For that, we used the Brazilian I-O matrix, published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, as displayed in section 6.1, as well as the computational code, using the software Scilab version 5.5.2 for simulations.

In 6.2, we present the empirical data from Brazilian NMI, INMETRO, to evaluate the economic distortion in the fuel market.

In sections 7.1 we simulate how the economic distortion behaves according to the measurement errors for each product. Finally, in 7.2 we used empirical data to evaluate the economic distortion in the fuel market. A simulation using the CMC was also conducted as a theoretical limit to the economic distortion. The results are displayed in US$ allowing comparisons among countries. The exchange rate is: 1.000 US$ = R$ 2.3407, representing the value in 2005 since the I-O matrix represents the economy in that year (Brazilian Central Bank, 2015).

5. Formulation

5.1 Leontief Input-Output Model

The input output model, hereinafter called I-O model was developed by the Russian economist Wassily Leontief, professor at Harvard, during the decade of 1960. Leontief was laureate Nobel Prize in 1973 due to the I-O model. The I-O model was based on the general equilibrium theory of Léon Walras, (Guilhoto, 2011).

The I-O model is based on the assumption that the production processes are connected, and it arises whenever the output of a process becomes the input to of the other (Leontief, 1975). This interdependence is represented in a matrix equation system, where outputs of processes are represented by the lines and the inputs by the columns. The goal of the I-O analysis is to describe economic reality as closely as possible (Davar, 2000).

The input I-O model has been applied, as a tool to economic analysis, in diverse areas as world oil production (Kerschner and Hubacek, 2009), energy (Arbex and Perobelli, 2010), water consumption (Velázquez, 2006), and to the analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade (Su et al., 2010).

The more basic form of the I-O model, using the industry technology assumption, states that the product output ! is represented by the final demand of products ! plus the intermediate consumption of industries !, as seen in (1) (HANDBOOK of input-output table compilation and analysis, 1999). The aggregated products in sectors are represented by !, as shown in (2).

! = ! + ! (1)

! = ! (2)

The basic definitions of the model are given in (3) and (4).

! = !.! (3)

! = !. ! (4)

Where ! represents the product by industry use coefficient matrix and ! the industry by product use coefficient matrix. Using (1), (2), (3) and (4), the product output and the industry output are given by (5) and (6), respectively.

! = !.! + ! (5)

! = !. ! (6)

Combining (5) and (6), the I-O model is represented by (7), where ! represents the identity matrix.

! = ! − !.! !!.!.! (7)

Equation 7 represents that the industry output is dependent on the final demand of products.

The inverse Leontief matrix ! − !.! !! represents the interdependence between final demand and the industry output matrices. The matrix !.! represents the product by product coefficient matrix. The sum of industry output is represented in (8).

! = !!!

!!!

(8)

5.2 The new model to measure the economic distortion

The I-O analysis provides the production related to the economy considering the intermediate consume by the productive sectors and the final demand. Our model considers that the consumers are not only represented by the final demand, but also by the industry, responsible for producing goods to the final demand as well as inputs to others productive processes. Then, the trade is also represented when

44

an industry is purchasing inputs to its process, and during this commercial transaction, distortions are also involved. This aspect represents the goal of the Leontief analyses and it is incorporated by our model when a measurement distortion ! is applied to the matrices that represent either the intermediate consume of industries ! and the final demand of products ! . Both matrices are given in monetary units and represent the amount of money spent by productive sectors and final consume.

Here, the deviation ! applied to which product represents the average error of measuring instruments used in the sector, aggregating not only systematic errors, but also external factors that may affect a measurement, such as weather conditions, operators’ accuracy and others.

The deviation applied to!! and ! is represented in (9).

!′ = !.! + !.! (9)

Consequently, the I-O model with the ! matrix is represented by (10), where !′ represents the industry output considering the deviation.

The elements of the matrices !.! and !.!, can be represented by (10), applying a deviation ! to the ! − !ℎ element.

!! .! = !!.! =

!

!!! !!"!!" !!!

… !!!… !!!

… !!!… !!!

⋮ ⋮!! .!!! !! .!!!

⋱ ⋮… !! .!!!

… ⋮… !! .!!"

⋮ ⋮!!! !!!

⋮ ⋮⋯ !!"

⋱ ⋮… !!!

(10)

!! .! = !′ = !

!!!!⋮

!! . !!⋮!!

(11)

Consequently, the I-O model with the ! matrix is represented by (12), where !′ represents the industry output considering the distortion of deviations.

!′ = ! − !.!! !!.!.!′ (12)

The sum of industry output considering the distortion ! is representing by (13).

!′ = !′!!

!!!

(13)

Finally, the economy distortion due to measurement error in the proposed model is given by

the difference between the sum of the production vectors!! and !!, as shown in (14).

!" = (!′!!

!!!− !!)

(14)

5.3 Limitation of the model

Products are inserted in the I-O matrix according to their relevance to the economy, so an important product in one economy may not be relevant to a different country, and since the formulation is based on the I-O model the economic distortion can be simulated only for the products that are represented as an element in the matrix and may difficult comparison for different countries in some specific areas.

Another aspect regards on the fact that the model computes only the economic impact, in monetary unit, then, intangible characteristics provided by legal metrology control such as security, health and environmental aspects are not considerate in this formulation.

For the purpose of this study, the measurement deviation relies on statistical errors of the measuring instruments, not considering intentional systematic deviation as produced by metrological frauds.

6. Application

6.1 Evaluating the impact of products on the economy

The analysis of the economics of trade metrology is conducted using the latest I-O report data published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, representing the economy in 2005 (IBGE, 2008). Resources consumed by the production processes ! , the demand ! , the production by product ! and the technical coefficient matrix ! were used as entrance to the model.

Different key products were selected in order to understand how a deviation in a measurement in a product would affect the whole economy. The products were selected due to its impact in the Brazilian economy, as showed in table 1.

The deviations were set from 0.01% to 5% in order to obtain the economic distortion curve for each product.

45

Table 1: Products simulated to compute the economic distortion.

Commodities Fuel Mining Utility Wheat Gasoline Coal Water,

electricity, gas and sewer

Coffee Ethanol Iron Soy Diesel - Corn - -

In order to identify the impact curve for each product individually, the matrices !.! and !.! are obtained for the!! − !ℎ product according to (10) and (11). For the Brazilian I-O matrix, ! = 110 and ! = 55. The software Scilab version 5.5.2 was used to simulate the economic distortion of the products displayed in table 1. The code used is showed in figure 1. 1 // BEGINNING THE SIMULATION 2 //Computing the production g 3 stacksize('max') 4 //Matrix D 5 Sheets=readxls('D.xls') 6 typeof(Sheets) 7 D=Sheets(1) 8 typeof(D) 9 D.value() 10 //Vector q 11 Sheets=readxls('q.xls') 12 typeof(Sheets) 13 q=Sheets(1) 14 typeof(q) 15 q.value() 16 //Matrix Un 17 Sheets=readxls('Un.xls') 18 typeof(Sheets) 19 Un=Sheets(1) 20 typeof(Un) 21 Un.value() 22 //Computing Bn 23 g=D.value() * q.value() 24 gdiag=diag(g) 25 ginv=inv(gdiag) 26 Bn=Un.value() * ginv 27 //Computing D.Bn 28 DBn=D.value()*Bn 29 //Computing Leontief 30 L=eye(55,55)-DBn 31 Leontief=inv(L) 32 //Matrix Fn 33 Sheets=readxls('Fn.xls') 34 typeof(Sheets) 35 Fn=Sheets(1) 36 typeof(Fn) 37 Fn.value() 38 //Computing D.Fn 39 DFn=D.value()*Fn.value() 40 //Computing total production g 41 Producao = Leontief * D.value()*Fn.value() 42 //Computing the production with distortion g'to the k-th element of Un 43 UnDist = Un.value() 44 k=90 45 delta=1.0001 46 for i=1:55 UnDist(k,i)=UnDist(k,i)*delta 47 end 48 //COMPUTING D.BnDist 49 BnDist=UnDist*ginv 50 DBnDist=D.value()*BnDist 51 //COMPUTING LEONTIEF DISTORTION 52 LDist=eye(55,55)-DBnDist 53 LeontiefDist=inv(LDist) 54 // COMPUTING FnDist 55 FnDist = Fn.value() 56 FnDist(k)=FnDist(k)*delta 57 //Computing D.FnDist 58 DFnDist=D.value()*FnDist 59 //Computing total production g’ 60 ProducaoDist = LeontiefDist * D.value()*FnDist 61 //Computing the economic distortion as ED = g'- g 62 //Converting to monetary unit $ Million 63 ED = (sum(ProducaoDist) - sum(Producao))*1000000 64 //END OF SIMULATION

Figure 1.Scilab code used to simulate the

economic distortion.

6.2 Obtaining the economic distortion using measurement error data reports

The measurement errors of the fuel dispensers used in the market were obtained from the Brazilian NMI in order to study the economic distortion in the fuel market. Despite the field activities as verifications and surveillance are carried out by delegated bodies, in Brazil, a unified database provide by an integrated information system, allowing to study the behavior of the measuring instruments under the legal metrology activities. The statistical distribution of errors for gasoline dispensers is showed in figure 2. Similar distributions are obtained to ethanol and diesel dispensers.

Figure 2. Measurement errors distribution for gasoline dispensers.

The measurement errors represent the results of subsequent verifications executed in the 20 out of 26 delegated bodies from June to December 2014, for accuracy test at maximum flow, covering 78,804 dispersers of gasoline, 37,719 of ethanol and 50,787 of diesel. The test were conducted according to the Brazilian regulation (Portaria Inmetro no023, 1985), based on the international recommendation (OIML R118, 1995). Table 2 shows averages and standard deviations for the measurement errors of dispensers used in the market, as well as the CMC for volume measurement in Brazil.

Table 2: Average errors and standard deviation of fuels dispenser.

Fuel dispenser ! ! CMC*

(%)

Gasoline 7.99 45.99 0.01 Ethanol 4.22 40.83 0.01 Diesel 6.68 49.52 0.01 *CMC for volume of liquid from 2L to 20L using gravimetric determination (“BIPM,” 2007).

46

7. Results and discussion

7.1 Simulating the economic distortion

A specific curve was obtained for each simulation in order to identify how a given deviation affects the economy for the key products simulated, according to table 1. Table 3 shows the economic distortion for a deviation of 1% for each simulated product.

Table 3: Economic distortion for a deviation of 1% impact on the GDP. Product Economic distortion

produced by a deviation of 1% (US$)

GDP* impact (%)

Wheat 13,510,390.91 0.002

Coffee 57,066,236.60 0.006

Soy 181,463,310.12 0.020

Corn 78,240,769.86 0.009

Gasoline 176,456,179.78 0.020

Ethanol 268,911,116.33 0.030

Diesel 383,029,747.51 0.043

Coal 95,617,934.81 0.011

Iron 196,439,530.91 0.022

Water, electricity, gas and sewer

995,679,155.81

0.112

* Brazilian GDP in 2005 (“The World Bank”).

Water, electricity, gas and sewer are displayed as a single product once the utility services are represented as a single element in the Brazilian Input-Output Matrix.

Utility services, represented in figure 3, have the biggest impact when compared to others simulated products once they are used recurrently as inputs to other products, where a deviation of 1% would represent an asymmetry of US$ 995,679,155.81.

Figure 3: Economic distortion curve for utility

services.

For the simulated commodities, figure 4, soy has the more representative impact on Brazilian economy when compared to corn, coffee and wheat. A distortion of 1% for soy would represent US$ 181,463,310.12.

Figure 4: Economic distortion curve for

commodities.

Among fuels, figure 5, a distortion of 1% for diesel would represent US$ 383,029,747.51, making it economically more relevant than both gasoline and ethanol.

Figure 5: Economic distortion curve for

automotive fuels.

Between the simulated mining products, according to figure 6, iron is approximately twice more representative than coal on the Brazilian economy, where a distortion of 1% would represent US$ 196,439,530.91.

Identifying the more economically relevant product is an important aspect of the proposed model, allowing the national governments allocating resources strategically to the products that have more influence on the local economy, enhancing the legal metrology control and consequently the national competitiveness as well as fair competition in the

0.00#

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3,000.00#

4,000.00#

5,000.00#

6,000.00#

0.00%# 1.00%# 2.00%# 3.00%# 4.00%# 5.00%# 6.00%#

US$$

Million$

Measuring$Error$

U-lity#2#Water,#Gas,#Eletricity,#Sewer#

0.00#

100.00#

200.00#

300.00#

400.00#

500.00#

600.00#

700.00#

800.00#

900.00#

1,000.00#

0.00%# 1.00%# 2.00%# 3.00%# 4.00%# 5.00%# 6.00%#US$$

Million$

Measuring$Error$

Wheat#Soy#Corn#Coffe#

0.00#

500.00#

1,000.00#

1,500.00#

2,000.00#

2,500.00#

0.00%# 1.00%# 2.00%# 3.00%# 4.00%# 5.00%# 6.00%#

US$$

Million$

Measuring$Error$

Gasoline#Ethanol#Diesel#

47

national level, reducing the losses due to measurement errors.

Another additional benefit of the model is to provide information to guide the legal metrology activities in order to be more efficient, controlling the most important products to the national economy.

Figure 6: Economic distortion curve for mining.

Figures 3-6 show the economic distortion results as well as interpolated curves to each simulated products. A linear dependence between measurement error and the economic distortion is also observed since R! = 0.999 to each curve. The linear approaches are represented in table 4, for each simulated product.

Table 4: Linear approaches for the curves in figures 3-6.

Product( Linear(approaching(Wheat& y&=&1,351,081,734.06x&

Soy& y&=&18,154,801,642.7127x&

Corn& y&=&7,831,235,902.21x&

Coffee& y&=&5,706,934,996.86x&

Gasoline& y&=&17,739,577,420.26x&

Ethanol& y&=&26,894,253,036.35x&

Diesel& y&=&38,333,547,735.50x&

Coal& y&=&9,563,668,978.83x&

Iron& y&=&19,716,911,667.11x&

Utility& D& Water,& gas,&electricity&and&sewer&

y&=&100,705,819,055.31x&

Despite the measurement error value of 1% has been used for comparison, it should be noted that the errors of instruments in the market might be higher or lower, according to the control provided by legal metrology.

As an example of the impact of higher deviations, simulated values for a deviation of 5% would represent an asymmetry of US$ 907,762,079.72 for soy, US$ 1,916,756,782.16 for diesel,

US$ 986,035,032.26 for iron and US$ 5,038,244,969.45for utility services.

7.2 Measuring the economic distortion

The case test aims to compute the economic distortion of fuel dispensers used in trade in Brazil, according to the measurement errors showed in the table 2. For the simulation according to the I-O model, the following assumption was made:

• Both intermediate sectors and final demand displayed in the I-O model consume the input (fuel) using the dispensers according to the errors distribution showed in figure 2.

The economic distortion of the fuel dispersers, including gasoline, ethanol and diesel combined represent US$ (25,505,627.88 + 190,307,948.09).

The maximum permissible error (MPE) based on the international recommendation OIML R 118 is established as + 0.5%. The simulation shows that the MPE represents + US$ 414,376,810.01in monetary unit meaning a range of US$ 828,753,620.03 of permissible losses in trade. The positive values (“+” symbol), represents a buyer loss and negative values (“-”symbol) seller loss. Since the present study considers the money attached to measurement errors both positive and negative values are considerate as monetary losses.

The Calibration and Measurement Capabilities (CMC), representing the lower measuring uncertainty achieved is given as 0.01% for Brazil, and the economic distortion according the CMC represents US$ 8,280,768.82. This value can be interpreted as the lower uncertainty to the economic distortion that can be achieved by the country once it is related to the best metrological technic available locally. However, the CMC is achieved in laboratorial conditions using more precise and accurate devices than the instruments used in trade, so for the economic distortion computation it must be understand as a theoretical value.

Figure 7 shows the economic distortion and its uncertainty for the empirical data of fuel dispensers used in trade in Brazil. The CMC as a theoretical uncertainty and the MPE range are also displayed for comparison.

0.00#

200.00#

400.00#

600.00#

800.00#

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1,200.00#

0.00%# 1.00%# 2.00%# 3.00%# 4.00%# 5.00%# 6.00%#

US$$

Million$

Measuring$Error$

Coal#

Iron#

48

Figure 7: Economic distortion for empirical data,

CMC and MPE range.

According to figure 7 it is possible to identify that the legal metrology activities maintain the measurement errors and uncertainty below the MPE for fuel dispensers. It is also possible to observe the great gap between the uncertainties of the dispensers used in the market when compared to the CMC uncertainty.

The proposed model allows measuring this gap between the theoretic and in field uncertainties permitting to quantify the benefits of the resources allocated to improve the measures in the market to decreasing the uncertainties in the fuel market.

8. Conclusion

The proposed model using a distortion applied to the Input-Output Leontief Model allowed to determine the economic distortion due to a measurement error in products that have values based on legal metrology.

One contribution of the proposed model is to compute all interconnection among the sector on the economy, permitting to evaluate the economic distortion on the whole economy.

The model shows to be appropriate to be applied to national economies once intermediate processes besides the final demand are considerate for measure the economic distortion due to measurement errors.

Another contribution is the use to identify the products that demands more accurate metrological control, resulting in better formulation for metrology policies and budget.

Different products comprising commodities, fuel, mining and utility services were simulated in order to obtain their economic distortion curves. The values of economic distortion due to deviations are

considerable covering a range of values from US$ 13,510,390.91 for wheat to US$ 995,679,155.81for utility services, for a 1% deviation, using the I-O Matrix available for the Brazilian economy for 2005.

These simulated economic distortions show the importance of an adequate national system to control and monitor the measurement deviations since the impact on the economy for a single product can be higher than one billion dollars, as simulated to utility services.

A linear dependence was also observed between the economic distortion and the measurement error, where the I-O simulations allows to obtain the angular inclination of the curve, permitting to determine which distortion on measures of products have more impact on the economy.

The legal metrology control also proved to be an important tool that brings confidence to the market as exposed to the fuels case test where the measurement errors are considerably lower than the maximum permissible errors according to the international recommendation.

The main disadvantage of the model remains on the fact that not all products are represented in the I-O matrices, as the utility sector product simulated, where electricity, water, gas and sewer are computed as a single product for the Brazilian case.

The proposed model can also be applied to any industry in future studies, once the I-O analysis is applicable, in order to identify losses and control the productive process more effectively.

For futures studies, the systematic errors introduced by metrological frauds can be applied in the I-O formulation in order to quantify the metrological frauds to the economy.

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the support of the National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology – INMETRO, which enabled us to carry out this research.

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51

6 ARTIGO 3 – MEDIÇÃO DO IMPACTO ECONÔMICO DE FRAUDES

METROLÓGICAS UTILIZANDO O MODELO DE INSUMO-PRODUTO

Para atender ao quinto objetivo específico do estudo, este capítulo apresenta uma

pesquisa que avalia o impacto advindo dos erros de medição de caráter sistemático

introduzidos propositalmente nos instrumentos utilizados na indústria e comércio, ou seja,

uma fraude. Uma vez que o objetivo de uma fraude metrológica é adquirir vantagens

financeiras de um vendedor sobre um comprador, este tipo de desvio pode provocar impactos

significativos na economia quando considera a agregação destes erros nos setores produtivos

e demanda final. O artigo foi submetido ao Advances in Production Management Systems

Conference – APMS 2016: Production Management Initiatives for a Sustainable World e

aprovado, e está aguardando a publicação no periódico IFIP Advances in Information and

Communication Technology.

No estudo é utilizada a formulação para avaliação da distorção econômica baseada no

modelo de insumo-produto, que considera o caráter positivo do erro de medição como perda

do consumidor em uma transação comercial e o sinal negativo perda do vendedor. Desta

forma, como os resultados de medição de uma fraude são tendenciosos, os resultados foram

divididos em duas distribuições estatísticas distintas: uma para os erros de medição aleatórios,

com valor médio próximo de zero, e outra para os erros advindos de fraude, que deve ser

deslocada positivamente e representa perdas ao consumidor. O desvio padrão dessas

distribuições é o parâmetro utilizado para estimar a incerteza de medição da distorção

econômica.

Assim, duas variáveis são necessárias para determinar o impacto econômico da fraude:

o percentual de erro do instrumento fraudado, que varia neste estudo de 2,5% até 25%, com

base em valores de fraudes encontradas em campo (LEITÃO; VASCONCELLOS;

BRANDÃO, 2014), e o percentual de instrumentos no mercado que apresenta fraude,

variando de 0,01% até 1%. Assim, foram utilizados os resultados empíricos de erros de

medição no setor de combustíveis no Brasil no ano de 2014 para determinar a distorção

econômica. Um algoritmo utilizando o software Scilab versão 5.5.2 foi implementado com

base nessas duas variáveis para se obter o comportamento da distorção econômica.

Os resultados mostram, no caso do comércio de etanol automotivo, que para uma

fraude de medição com erros de 10% dos quais 1% apresentam fraude, há um impacto de

US$ 303.734.309,35 de perdas ao consumidor ,em contrapartida de US$ 49.236.453,24 contra

o vendedor. Isso significa que um desvio intencional nas medições geram grande incerteza e

52

tendem a perdas ao consumidor. Também foi observado um comportamento linear entre a

distorção econômica e o erro de medição da fraude para um percentual fixo de instrumentos

fraudados no mercado.

53

Measuring the economic impact of metrological frauds in trade metrology using an Input-Output Model

Bruno A. Rodrigues Filho 1, 2, Rodrigo F. Gonçalves 2

1 National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology – INMETRO, Duque de Caxias, Brazil

2 Paulista University – UNIP, São Paulo, Brazil [email protected]

Abstract. The present study aims to evaluate the economic distortion in trade metrology due to metrological frauds in measuring instruments used in the commerce and industry. The economic distortion represents the economic loss-es due to measurement deviations in trade. An Input-Output Model approach is carried out in order to determine the economic distortion whenever an output in a process represents the input to another one and it considers the aggregation of values of products traded in the economy. A case test is also conducted using empirical data of measurement errors and metrological frauds in the fuel sector in Brazil in order to determine their economic impact. The results show that the impact of metrological frauds increase the distortion uncertainty from US$ 54,910,307.13 to US$ 303,734,309.35! toward consumers’ losses creating a great asymmetry in the market.

Keywords. Legal metrology, economic distortion, market asymmetry, Leontief.

1 Introduction

The commerce has always been present in the human history and it is not possible to imagine our society separately from it. Specifically, the commerce involving goods which values are based on weights and measures has always been present in people’s everyday life. Initially, weights and measures were initially introduced to control food in trade [1] and the origins of the weighing instruments which are a symbol of parity, truth and justice date back to the oldest cultures 10,000 years ago [2].

The necessity for protection regards on the economic distortion or market asym-metry that is describe as the monetary value associated to a measurement deviation due to the inaccuracies intrinsic to the measuring processes as a consequence of er-rors, uncertainties, operator’s inaccuracy, environmental conditions and others.

This economic distortion impacts both economy and society since deviations be-tween buyers and sellers cause economic losses and unfair competition. Moreover consumer’s protections aspects are also related to this market asymmetry that may be an indicator of the economic impact of legal metrology [3]. Several researchers have

54

also presented the importance of legal metrology and its social and economical impact to the society, trade, industry and governments [4-8]. The initiative regarding using empirical data do evaluate the economic impact of inaccuracy of measuring instru-ments was initially proposed during the decade of 1970 [4] and several formulations using proxy variables have also been proposed, such as [5]: number of measurement related patents in comparison to the total; cost of certification as an indicator of indus-tries willingness to pay for reliability; the sum of all industry equipment.

Despite the deviations of the measuring instruments regards to the measurement er-ror theory, an intentional error or a metrological fraud caused by the operator in order to prejudice a buyer in a commercial transaction creates a great distortion in the econ-omy. An example is the energy market in Germany, where the global competition has led to tighter profit margins increasing the risk for metrological frauds [6]. Recently, the global market has also been overflowed by metrological frauds in the fuel market occasioning severe losses to the buyers and competitors [7].

Regardless of the obvious aspect that a metrological fraud is prejudicial to the con-sumers and consequently the economy, its economic impact is not well known. The Input-Output Model allows to compute how a change in a product demand impacts its production contemplating the interconnections of productive processes since it con-siders that an output of a process can be an input to another one [8].

Consequently, the Input-Output Model, hereinafter called I-O for simplicity, per-mits to evaluate the economic impact a measurement deviation in a product to the economy, introducing a factor representing these deviations to the traditional Leon-tief’s formulation, identifying how the deviations spreads across every sector on the economy.

Then, based on the I-O theory, the present study aims to evaluate the economical uncertainties cause by metrological frauds in trade. The measurement errors report for fuel disperses in the field in Brazil is used to provide an empirical case. In order to understand the impact of metrological frauds, we replaced a percentage of the empiri-cal deviations by values based on known metrological frauds to evaluate the behavior of these frauds to the economy.

2 Methodology

2.1 Formulation to compute the economic distortion

The I-O formulation is based on the assumption that the productive processes are connected since an input of a process is the output of another process [8]. This inter-connection is represented in a matrix system where the lines represent the outputs and columns the inputs. The basic conception is given by the product output !, which is represented by the final demand of products ! plus the intermediate consumption of industries !, as seen in (1).

! = ! + ! (1)

55

Due to linear algebra, the basic formulation of the I-O is given by (2), where g rep-resents aggregation of q in industry sectors, I the identity, and D and B are coefficient matrices.

! = ! − !.! !!.!.! (2)

Consequently, the total national production of the n aggregate products g is given by the sum of the vector g, as shown in (2), where g is given in monetary units.

! = !!!!!! (3)

To compute the impact of measurement deviation, a multiplier factor ! represent-ing a percentage of deviation due to measurement errors is introduced in both inter-mediate consumption of industries and the final demand, as seen in (4).

!′ = !.! + !.! (4)

Finally, the influence of the distortion due to measurement deviations, i.e. the eco-nomic distortion ED, is given by the difference of total production including!!, !′ less the total production of the n aggregate products !, as shown in (3).

!" = (!′!!!!! − !!) (5)

2.2 Evaluating the impact of metrological frauds

A metrological fraud can be understood as an intentional deviation introduced in a measuring instrument to promote financial gains to the seller over the buyer. The definition of measurement error is given in (6), where the error e is equal to the in-strument value !! less the value of the standard used for comparison !!. ! = !! − !! (6)

Consequently, positive values of e represent buyer’ losses and negative values sell-er’s losses. For example, in the fuel market, for a petro pump displaying 20.10l and the standard displaying 20.00 l, and for 1l = $1.00, it would represent a loss of $0.10 for the buyer.

Since the measurement deviations of instruments can be represented by an average and measurement uncertainty regarding a statistical distribution, the economy distor-tion must also contain an uncertainty. For the present study it is reasonable to assume that measurement errors of the instruments used in the market and industry follow a gauss distribution. We also assumed the standard deviation to represent the measure-ment uncertainty in the present study.

However, the set of illegal devices would follow a different statistical distribution once they are intentionally regulated to provide higher positive measurement errors. Thus, the contributions of fraudulent devices contribute only to positive values of deviations. So in order to analyze the contributions of errors to the economic distor-tion uncertainty, we considered the mutual distribution uncertainty to positive values

56

(buyer’s losses) and the regular devices distribution to negative values (seller’s loss-es), as seen in figure 1.

Fig. 1. Uncertainty evaluation for the economic distortion.

A mutual distribution uncertainty !!" is obtained combining deviations of both fraudulent and regular measurement instruments distributions. The measurement un-certainty is represented in (7), where !!" represents the average of the mutual distri-bution, !!the average and !! the standard deviation of the instruments distribution.

!! − !! ≤ !"#$%&"!"'(!!"#$%&'("&)! ≤ !!" + !!" (7)

2.3 Simulating a metrological fraud

In order to evaluate the economic impact of metrological fraud we used an empirical database of measurement errors for automotive ethanol dispensers in Brazil [9]. And, the metrological frauds for the fuel market usually varies from 6% to 12% [7].

To analyze how the economic distortion behaves when fraudulent instruments are used in the commerce, we have established two variables: the percentage of fraudu-lent devices and the measurement error due to the fraud. Then, a Scilab 5.5.2 algo-rithm replaces randomly a percentage of instruments in the database by fraudulent values, as follow:

Sheets=readxls('Ethanol_Error.xls') // Reading empirical data

typeof(Sheets) Error=Sheets(1)

typeof(Error) Error.value()

percentage=0.05//% Defining percentage to be replaced

total=fix(37719*percentage/100)+1

fraudError=Error.value()

VolumeFraud=2000 //ml

for i=1:total //Replacing values

fraudError((fix(37719*rand())+1))=VolumeFraud

end

write_csv(fraudError,"Fraud_Error.xls") //new dataset//End

57

Figure 2 also illustrates the process of simulating fraudulent instruments in the market.

Fig. 2. Process for replacing empirical measurement errors for simulated defrauded values.

The empirical data of measurement errors of automotive ethanol dispersers where the average (aD) and the standard deviation (σD) comprising 37,719 ethanol dispensers verified in 2014 are represented in ml units by: aD = 4.22; σD = 40.83. The great di-vergence of these dispensers is mainly caused by the imprecisions of the measurement of fuel, such as environmental conditions, humidity, user’s proficiency and others [10].

Finally, to compute the economic distortion according to 5, we used the latest pub-lished Brazilian Input-Output matrices representing the economy in 2005 [11] as well as the dollar exchange rate [12]: US$ 1.0000 = R$ 2.3407.

3 Results

For a bigger percentage of fraudulent devices used in trade, the economic distortion associated to the measurement errors is consequently bigger. Table 1 shows the re-sults of economic distortion from a range of 0.01% to 1% of fraudulent measuring instruments introduced in the commerce comparing to a scenario where no frauds are used. A fraud value of 10% is applied to the results presented in table 1, representing a deviation of 2 l for each 20 l traded.

The measurement uncertainty regarding seller’s losses remains constant once a fraud affects only the buyers. The average representing the economic distortion is linear dependent of the percentage of fraudulent devices (R2 = 0.9998).

Percentage randomly replaced

Measurement errors of n devices used in the field

1

2

3

4

k-2

k-1

k

n-2

n-1

n

Empi

rical

Dat

aset

1

2

4

k-2

k-1

n-1

n

Data

set c

onta

inin

g bot

h em

piric

al

and

simul

ated

def

raud

ed e

rrors

Defrauded simulated

error

Empirical error

Econ

omic

disto

rtion

of f

raud

58

Table 1. The variation of the measurement uncertainty according to the percentage of fraudu-lent devices for a 10% volume deviation.

%"of"fraudulent"instruments"in"the"market"

Economic""Distortion"

Average"(US$)"

Measurement"Uncertainty"Range"(Buyer"+"Seller)"

Buyer&loss& Seller&loss&

0! $!5,673,853.89! $!54,910,307.13!

$!49,236,453.24!!

$!104,146,760.38!0.01! $5,969,647.42! $!67,441,271.42! $!116,677,724.66!0.05! $7,018,370.10! $!88,496,693.13! $!137,733,146.37!0.1! $7,018,370.10! $!109,686,654.24! $!158,923,107.49!0.5! $19,119,034.64! $!216,363,722.30! $!265,600,175.55!1! $32,295,351.86! $!303,734,309.35! $!352,970,762.60!

Figure 3 shows the economic distortion variation due to metrological frauds, dis-playing the measurement uncertainty. It is also possible to observe the great diver-gence between consumer and seller’s losses.

Fig. 3. Effect of metrological frauds on the economy according to the percentage of fraudulent instruments.

Fig. 4. Economic distortion for a constant number of fraudulent devices and volume variation.

!$#100.00#

!$#50.00#

$#0.00#

$#50.00#

$#100.00#

$#150.00#

$#200.00#

$#250.00#

$#300.00#

$#350.00#

$#400.00#

Econ

omic'Distor,o

n'(US$)'

Millions'

0#

0.01#

0.05#

0.1#

0.5#

1#

0%##

0.01%##

0.05%##0.1%##

0.5%##

1%##

Percentage#of#fraudulent#measuring#instruments:#

Seller#loss#

Consum

er#loss#

y"="142.5877x"+"5,686,816.3878"R²"="0.9998"

$5.70"

$5.80"

$5.90"

$6.00"

$6.10"

$6.20"

$6.30"

$6.40"

$6.50"

0" 1000" 2000" 3000" 4000" 5000" 6000"

Econ

omic'Distor,o

n'(US$)'

Millions'

fraud'(ml'per'each'20'l''traded)'

59

The economic distortion for bigger percentage values of fraudulent instruments in the market introduces bigger consumers’ losses differently when comparing to the sellers’ losses, which remains constant. As a direct consequence, the probability of consumers’ losses is bigger than sellers’ and it indicates a component of unfair com-petition caused by the asymmetry of information. The range of US$ 352,970,762.60!uncertainty caused by 1% of irregular instruments in the commerce is more than three times bigger than the range of uncertainty if no fraudulent instruments were used and the uncertainty toward consumer’s losses is six times bigger than the initial uncertain-ty, where no fraud is applied to the market.

In order to identify the behavior of the economic distortion due to the volume fraud dispensed to the consumers, we simulated the economic distortion for a constant number of fraudulent instruments and ranged the value of fraud, from 500 m l to 5000 m l for each 20 l traded. Figure 4 shows the behavior of the economic distortion for different values of fraud when keeping the percentage of 0.01% fraudulent instru-ments in the market constant.

The economic distortion introduced in the economy increases the consumers’ loss-es in the trade due to bigger errors of volume dispensed. The dependence between the economic distortion and the fraudulent measurement values is linear, for R2=0.9998.

4 Conclusion

The Input-Output Model allowed us to compute the economic distortion due to the measurement errors of instruments used in trade contemplating the interconnections of the sector on the economy. Since a fraud is intentionally introduced in the market it changes the random behavior of deviations and add a systematic deviation compo-nent, which reflects in the economic impact to the economy.

The methodology proposed to compute the impact of fraudulent devices in the market also permitted to identify their impact on the economy based on two variables: the percentage error of measurement traded and percentage of fraudulent instruments.

Empirical information of the fuel market in Brazil also enable to evaluate the im-pact of metrological frauds showed to be expressive and it increases the range of un-certainty of the economic distortion from US$ 104,146,760.38!to US$ 352,970,762.60!toward consumers’ losses, for 1% of fraudulent devices for a 10% deviation. The uncertainty representing buyer’s losses increases from US$ 54,910,307.13 to $ 303,734,309.35 creating a big asymmetry between buyers and sellers in the market. Moreover, we identified that the economic loss is linearly dependent of the volume deviation introduced in the instrument, for a constant number of fraudulent devices.

The big impact of metrological frauds in the commerce may affect the relation be-tween buyer and seller due to the great asymmetry of information caused by the inten-tional deviation in the measurements, creating unfair competition that may also im-pact honest sellers leading the economy to a failure.

Additionally, the proposed model can also be applied to any industry’s quality management system in order to evaluate the losses due to the measurement processes since the I-O analysis is a consolidate model in economy.

60

Acknowledgement

The authors acknowledge the support of INMETRO, which enabled us to carry out this research.

References

1. Birch, J.: The expanding scope of legal metrology and the changing role of the state in a globalised world. OIML Bull. XLV, 23–24 (2004).

2. EULER, W., Hennef, Sieg, M.: History of Scales Part 15: Automatic gravimetric filling instruments (AGFIs) - Weighing and bag filling machines for loose bulk products. OIML Bull. 4, 8–9 (2015).

3. Rodrigues Filho, B.A., Gonçalves, R.F.: Legal metrology, the economy and society: A systematic literature review. Measurement. 69, 155–163 (2015).

4. Stiefel, S.W.: Management assistance for weights and measures progress, measuring inaccuracy’s economic distortion. Presented at the 58th National Conference on Weights an Measures (1973).

5. Birch, J.: Benefit of legal metrology for the economy and society - A study for the Inter-national Committee of Legal Metrology. International Organization of Legal Metrology - OIML, Paris, France (2003).

6. Kochsiek, M., Schulz, W.: Modernization of legal metrology in Germany. OIML Bull. XLV, 27 – 31 (2004).

7. Leitão, F.O., Vasconcellos, M.T., Brandão, P.C.R.: Contramedidas de hardware y soft-ware sobre el fraude de alta tecnología al Surtidor de combustible bajo el alcance de Metrología Legal. In: 9th International Symposium “Metrologia 2014” Proceedings. p. 8. , Havana, Cuba (2014).

8. Leontief, W.: Structure of the world economy: Outline of a simple input-output formula-tion. Proc. IEEE. 63, 345–351 (1975).

9. Rodrigues Filho, B.A., Soratto, A.N., Gonçalves, R.F.: Information systems as a tool to improve legal metrology activities. In: 8th Brazilian Congress on Metrology Proceedings. , Bento Gonçalves, RS, Brazil (2015).

10. Batista, E., Almeida, A., Almeida, N., Reis, C., Filipe, E.: Comparison on the verification of fuel dispensers. OIML Bull. LIV, 19 – 24 (2013).

11. IBGE. , Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2008). 12. Brazilian Central Bank,

http://www4.bcb.gov.br/pec/taxas/port/ptaxnpesq.asp?id=txcot

acao.

61

7 CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS

7.1 Conclusões da pesquisa

O presente trabalho se propôs a avaliar o impacto dos erros de medição dos

instrumentos utilizados no comércio e indústria na economia por meio do cálculo da distorção

econômica. Desta forma, foram propostos cinco objetivos específicos contemplando a

contextualização e justificativa do trabalho, formulação matemática, simulação das curvas de

distorção econômica para produtos denominados chave para a economia brasileira, o cálculo

com dados empíricos por meio dos erros de medição para o setor de combustíveis

automotivos e, finalmente, a medição da distorção econômica no caso de fraudes, no caso,

para o setor de combustíveis.

A metodologia de tese em formato de artigos foi utilizada para a elaboração deste

trabalho, na qual os objetivos específicos foram vinculados a artigos que foram publicados

e/ou submetidos a periódicos de circulação internacional e sujeitos à avaliação por pares, para

consolidar os resultados obtidos.

A revisão sistemática da literatura permitiu identificar as publicação nos últimos dez

anos relativas à metrologia legal aplicada à economia e à sociedade. As publicações foram

classificadas em quatro subgrupos principais: economia e sociedade; comércio internacional;

controle metrológico legal e metrologia legal em países em desenvolvimento. No âmbito

econômico e social, as pesquisas publicadas estão focadas nos aspectos relativos ao impacto

financeiro e importância da metrologia nas relações comerciais e defesa do consumidor. Uma

das lacunas identificadas nas pesquisas foi a medição dos impactos econômicos da metrologia

legal, que permitiu a contextualização e a justificativa para a realização deste trabalho.

Com base na lacuna identificada foi proposta uma modelagem matemática que usou

como base o modelo de insumo-produto elaborado pelo economista Wassily Leontief, com o

objetivo de medir a distorção econômica provinda de erros de medição nos instrumentos

utilizados na indústria e comércio. O modelo desenvolvido por Leontief permite identificar o

impacto econômico na variação de um produto, tendo como princípio básico que a entrada de

um processo afeta a saída de um processo relacionado. Assim, foi introduzido no modelo IP

um fator δ que representa um desvio de medição relativo aos erros dos instrumentos utilizados

e permite avaliar este impacto em toda a economia.

Por meio da modelagem matemática proposta foi possível determinar as curvas de

distorção econômica para os setores de commodities, combustíveis, mineração e serviços de

62

utilidade. O setor de serviços de utilidade, agregando água, eletricidade e esgoto demonstrou

ter o maior distorção econômica com relação aos demais produtos, representando

US$ 995 milhões ou 0,112% do PIB brasileiro, com os dados da última matriz IP publicada,

referente ao ano de 2005.

A avaliação da distorção econômica para os combustíveis automotivos feita por meio

dos dados empíricos de erros de medição para o setor permitiu determinar uma distorção

média de US$ 25 milhões. Para a avaliação do setor foi introduzido o cálculo da incerteza de

medição representado pela variação estatística dos dados dos instrumentos em campo, no qual

um valor negativo significa perda para o vendedor e positivo, para o comprador do produto.

Todavia, para o estudo em questão é relevante o impacto econômico no setor representado

pela variação da distorção econômica independente da orientação positiva ou negativa.

Similarmente, para a capacidade de medição e calibração (CMC) no País e erros

máximos permitidos, conforme norma internacional para medição de combustíveis, estes

valores representam US$ 8 milhões e US$ 414 milhões, respectivamente. Desta forma, foi

possível concluir que, no Brasil, as perdas advindas destas medições são inferiores ao

permitido pela normalização internacional, todavia são superiores à CMC no país. A CMC,

no entanto, representa a melhor medição disponível para volume no país, em condições

laboratoriais controladas.

Especificamente, quando há a introdução de uma fraude de medição, os resultados

mostram que as incertezas de perdas na economia para o consumidor, no comércio de etanol,

variam de US$ 54 milhões para US$ 303 milhões para uma fraude com erro de 10% em 1%

dos instrumentos utilizados no mercado. Este valor demonstra um grande impacto na

economia de um erro de medição intencional, que acarreta perdas ao consumidor. Também

foi observado linearidade na relação entre distorção econômica e erros advindos de fraudes

para um percentual fixo de instrumentos fraudados no mercado.

Finalmente, por meio da modelagem proposta foi possível avaliar as perdas na

economia atribuídas aos erros de medição dos instrumentos utilizados, tanto no comércio

como na indústria. A modelagem baseada na formulação IP mostrou-se uma ferramenta

adequada para medição da distorção econômica para a metrologia legal, que permite

eventuais comparações internacionais entre diferentes economias e o posicionamento nacional

referente às perdas econômicas em estudos futuros. A ferramenta proposta também permitiu

identificar, entre os produtos simulados, quais têm um impacto econômico mais significativo

para o país, com a utilização deste trabalho para o desenvolvimento de políticas metrológicas

e de regulamentação na área, com a possibilidade de alocação de recursos de maneira mais

63

eficiente para os produtos que demandam maior atenção das autoridades pertinentes no campo

da metrologia legal.

7.2 Desenvolvimentos futuros

Uma vez que esta pesquisa propôs a medição do impacto econômico da metrologia

legal por meio da formulação estática do modelo de insumo-produto, a aplicação do modelo

dinâmico é um passo futuro a ser realizado. A formulação dinâmica permitirá identificar

como um erro de medição impacta imediatamente na produção intermediária e como este

impacto influenciará o produto do qual é insumo. O modelo proposto neste estudo apresentou

um aspecto linear entre a distorção econômica e os erros de medição dos instrumentos

utilizados nos processos. Todavia, o modelo dinâmico pode introduzir um fator não linear à

formulação, sendo os impactos maiores do que os previstos inicialmente nesta pesquisa.

Um segundo aspecto também a ser pesquisado refere-se à medição empírica da

distorção econômica para outros produtos de relevância para a economia nacional. Observa-se

que uma vez determinado o impacto empírico, pode-se aplicar o modelo com as matrizes IP

de diversos países e assim determinar como o Brasil está localizado no que tange à

confiabilidade dos resultados das medições na indústria e no comércio no mundo.

64

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UNIVERSIDADE PAULISTA - UNIP AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO ...€¦ · intentional errors, also know as metrological frauds. The dataset is from the measurement errors report in the fuel