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Views on EADS Strategy andViews on EADS Strategy and Value Creation
Marwan LahoudChief Strategy and Marketing Officer
Global Investor Forum15 & 16 December 2011
2Safe Harbour Statement
Disclaimer
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “projects”, “may” and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include p ojects , ay a d s a e p ess o s a e used to de t y t ese o a d oo g state e ts a p es o o a d oo g state e ts c udestatements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.
These factors include but are not limited to:These factors include but are not limited to:
Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cyclical nature of some of EADS’ businesses;
Significant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks);
Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar;
The successful execution of internal performance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts;
Product performance risks, as well as programme development and management risks;
Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues;
Competition and consolidation in the aerospace and defence industry;
Significant collective bargaining labour disputes;
The outcome of political and legal processes, including the availability of government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procurement budgets;
Research and development costs in connection with new products;
Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions;
Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties.
As a result, EADS’ actual results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set forth in such forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause future results to differ from such forward-looking statements, see EADS’ “Registration Document” dated 19 April 2011April 2011.
Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. EADS undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise.
Growing revenues, but lagging share price… 3
EADS share price relative stagnant over 10 years while revenues grew strongly…
…however being an A&D leader in revenues does not make us into leader in valuey g g y does not make us into leader in value
40 50
Revenue (€k)Share price (€)
48
Revenue 2010 (€bn)*
Boeing 34Boeing
Mkt Cap (€bn)*
30
35
35
40
45
26
34
46
LMT
N th G
EADS
16
17
19
Gen Dynamics
EADS
LMT
20
25
20
25
30
24
25
26
BAE
Northr. Grumman
Gen Dynamics 10
11
16
BAE
Northr. Grumman
Gen Dynamics
IPO = €19
10
15
10
15
20
4
16
19FINM
D l
Bombardier
3
5
7Dassault
Bombardier
E b
O € 9
0
5
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09 10 11
0
54
4Dassault
Embraer 3
3Embraer
FINM
* GD: Samel ith h lf
Boeing: 2x l ith value with half
the revenuesvalue withsame revenues
4…as we are not yet champions in Return on Capital Employed
FY10 ROCE %
High values
Medium values
19%
10%11%
18%19%
9%
13%13%14%
Lower values
5%*
9%
EADSFinmeccanicaDassaultEmbraer
North.GrummanBAEBoeingBombardierGen.DynamicsLMT
* made comparable to peers. Excludes launch aid.
5Successfully securing growing cash position…
16 2
Reasons to limit external investments for growth in the past
13.7
15.1
16.2
Gross CashNet Cash 11%
CAGR 03-10
for growth in the past
Internal investments has been priority ~5bn€/year for Capex and R&D
10.6
11.8 11.9
9.29.810.0
2002-06 - BoD misalignment on investing in the US
7.9
7.0
5.521%
2001 - 2005 - keep cash to "afford Thales“
2006 A380 crisis3.5
3.1
4.2 2006 - A380 crisis
2008-09 - A400M renegotiation
-1.7
2008-11 Financial Crisis
“Overcautious” cash-flow forecasts 2003 2004 2006 2008 2010200920072005
O e caut ous cas o o ecastsevery year
6…while
US Treasury prices (mixed maturity):
Safety is becoming expensive…
FTSE 350 Aerospace & Defence
…and Risk is becoming cheaper
US Treasury prices (mixed maturity): Oct 2010 -Oct 2011
3 700
FTSE 350 Aerospace & Defence
Fallen 17% since
3 300
3 500
Fallen 9% in th t
since January
German Bond prices (10yr): Oct 2010 -Oct 2011 3 100
3 300 the past year
Fallen 16%
2 900from Oct10 to August
2 700
oct-1
0N
ov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Augu
Sept
e
oct-1
1
“You should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet
7Can our cash cushion make us too comfortable?
40
16
1740%
35% e (%
)A-A high credit rating still applies to companies with a
30
35
12
13
14
15
29%
of R
even
ue
(€bn
)
applies to companies with a much lower proportion of cash than EADS
20
25
8
9
10
11
16%16%
23%
16,216% ro
port
ion
o
h po
sitio
n (
A
7,8 10
15
4
5
6
7
11%
16%16%16%
9%
6% ash
as a
pr
Gro
ss c
ash
BBB
BB+BBB+
BBBBBB+
A-
A
1,6 1,23,6
,8
3,92,9 2,8 2,1 2,1
0
5
0
1
2
3 6%
FY10
CaG BBB-
N/A
BBB+
FIN
M
BA
E
Bo
ein
g
Bo
mb
ard
ier
Dassault
EA
DS
Em
bra
er
LM
T
N. G
rum
man
Gen
Dyn
am
ics
easier to balance risk with cash G- easier to balance risk with cash than with improved business performance?
8Balancing 50/50 with Boeing Commercial is the most important balance for EADS - and it is not for free…
… costing ~8% of sales before financingManaged for success past 15 years
Airbus Investment (€bn) : Excludes financing
144.0
Portion of Group Revenue %
100
Commercial Aircraft deliveriesAirbus and Boeing in %
11
12
13
3.0
3.5
10.4%
12.3%11.9%
80
90
8
9
102.5
2.03 8
8.3%8.5%
7.6%8.0%
9.3%
3.950
60
70
Airbus
B i
52%
5
6
71.5
1.0
3.83.63.33.1
3.5 3.73.43.9
30
40Boeing
12%48%
5.8% 4.7% 5.2%5.7%5.2%Boeing
2
3
40.5
0.00
10
20
201020092008200720052004 20062003200119911981 2011E1971
9Balance - difficult organically due to strong Airbus growth -Acquisitions and Export Success key
80OP11 OP11 + YTD M&A
38,7 38,740
60 CAGR
8.3%
CAGR
8.3%
26 5
25,9 25,9
20
40
5 5% 6 9%19,0 24,9 19,026,5
02010 2015 2010 2015
5.5% 6.9%
* Based on SP11 trendline
Large Commercial Aircraft Non Large Commercial Aircraft
10Balance - Airbus managed the past 2 cycles successfully - do we need internal balance as much as we thought?
Learned from "near death" experience early 1990s
A Cycle without a Cycle? - first time in history: Peak to Trough production down 38 69% in past cycles experience early 1990s
Backlog flexibility -constant negotiation with customers on delivery160
Annual growth relative to a recession - LCA world production
Peak-to-Trough production down 38-69% in past cycles
customers on delivery slots pays off
Overbooking keeps factories full130
140
150
160
2008 - Financial
Government guarantees stabilizes export so far
Customer base more90
100
110
120
1980s Downturn
1990s Downturn
Crisis
Customer base more global - less impact of regional cycles
Careful ramp-up50
60
70
80 1970s Downturn
2000s Downturn
Y f p p
…while commercial services too small to deliver impact and Airbus Military not bringing the 20
30
40
50 Year of recession
y g gfinancial counterbalance10
R-2 RR-1 R+1 R+2 R+3 R+4
Boeing’s growth trend has followed a more volatile path than that of Airbus 11
Commercial deliveries 1971 – 2011E
606620
550
600
650
Airbus
362400
450
500 Boeing/ MDC deliveries
- 58% - 55%
362
257281
325
303
250
300
350
- 45%- 7%
200
257
163
123
100
150
200
250
- 25%
D l
0
50
100
19811971 2011E20011991
Duopoly commences around 2003
19811971 2011E20011991
12Services - Implementing the Vision 2020 through M&A has started
M&A according to priority segments…
A/C + H/C ISS
Cyber Sec
Satellite
Vizada
g p y g
Hig
hA
DS
Defence Training(non-flight)
Flight Training
Satellite ServicesDefence
Electronics
UASVector
Fit w
ith E
A
Security Equip
ATM + Flight Ops
Material Mngt
Mobile Radio
Space Systems
Satair Cabin Upgrades
Satair
Metron
w
Market Attractiveness HighLow
Lo
w
Financial metrics new culture and cost structure different Post MergerFinancial metrics new - culture and cost structure different - Post Merger Integration to be done
13Global - Portfolio management increasing in current market -an opportunity to enter in particular the US?
2 2 4 0622 0 00
24 0 00
26 0 00
1 8
2 0
2 2
V alue of Divestm ents $m# of D ives tm ents
estimation of all A&D deals* above 100m$
14 0 00
16 0 00
18 0 00
20 0 00
1 2
1 4
1 6
1 0 48 4
7 8 377 2 408 0 00
10 0 00
12 0 00
14 0 00
8
1 0
1 2
8 9057 2 40
5 6 6 14 8 67
2 0 00
4 0 00
6 0 00
8 0 00
2
4
64 885
0 02011201020092 00820072 00620 052004
Caveat: protectionism in the USCaveat: protectionism in the US
* including sell off from private equity
14Global - In overall sales we are a global success, while…
Customer base global, but mainly commercial
Employee Footprint Outside Europe Increasing
Country strategies being developedbut mainly commercial Europe Increasing
% Employees Outside EuropeBacklog end 2010
Revenues 2002
Backlog end 2010
Revenues 2002
being developed
USEurope
US
48% 27% Europe
US
48% 27%4%2007
USIndiaChinaSouth-Korea
4% 7% 20%Incl. recent acquisitions
US
Middle East4%
20%
23%
40%*US
Middle East4%
20%
23%
40%*
2011e 7%BrazilRussia…East
AsiaPacific7% 28%
East
AsiaPacific7% 28%
2020Objective 20%
PacificPacific
… Industrial footprints, Services growth and focus on non i l i i l i t t t d i t l b li ti
*Including leasing companies
commercial increasingly important to drive next wave globalization
15
EADS finance community is at the core of our Vision 2020 implementation
Key driver of growth - creating ways to finance group and division ambitions
Manage risk to allow opportunities to come alive
Measuring Services business performance - adapt the metrics
Integrating an increasingly global footprint
Balance the need to be cautious with the need to embrace opportunities in current market