Vladimir Putin in Power

The Yeltsin Presidency, 1991-99 Democratizing system

Creating market economy

Liquidating an empire

Seeking new geopolitical role

Putin Becomes Prime Minister August 1999 Yeltsin fired

prime minister and replaced him with 46-year-old relatively unknown Putin

“No supporters, no charisma, no ideology, no popularity, no experience—nothing that made him independent”

Mood in country at time of Yeltsin’s resignation

Need for strong, robust ruler and stability. Impact of economic difficulties and corruption. Need to feel good about Russia and its accomplishments. Did Russia have too much freedom?

“Possibly the most bizarre fact about Putin’s ascent to power is that the people who lifted him to the throne knew little more about him than you do.” Masha Gessen

Putin’s Rise to Power Background. Born 1952, Leningrad

Sambo, Leningrad University, law, German

KGB, East Germany

1990 returned to Leningrad, deputy mayor, brought in German money

After mayor dies, to Moscow, eventually head of FSB

Appointment in 1999 barely ratified; premier and acting president until elections in March 2000

The Young Volodya

Personality From First Person:

pragmatic, pugnacious, thug, judo as philosophy; lowered sense of danger; no gambler; can be trusted

Belonging to KGB a way of thinking (hostility toward dissent, inability to tolerate variety, rejection of everything alien, suspiciousness, secretiveness)

Masha Gessen’s Doubts Rumors he was adopted

No one remembered boy before school age

Family had TV, telephone, dacha

Had a car at Leningrad U

Supported hard liners at time of 1991 coup?

Was there a conspiracy?

to allow Yeltsin to replace Gorbachev, to broker demise of USSR, & place him in debt of KGB?

Gessen believes FSB behind 1999 bombings

Putin as Acting President•Renewed war in Chechnya, “We are defending ourselves”

•Opposition at home and abroad, but less so after 9-11

•Conflated Chechnya with our fight against terrorists

2000-2004

Election, March 2000: Russia Votes for Stability Won 53% of vote

Asserted “Russia needs a dictatorship of the law”

71% wanted strong leader; 59% a strong state; 13% democratic institutions

Program during First Term State building: Russia’s prestige in world and Eurasia

Advocate of the market: oil exports stabilized economy and led to robust growth rates

Popularity stemmed from stability, robust public figure, fight against corruption

Growing consumption of middle class

Leadership Style Move toward centralization (appointed 7 regional

representatives)

Relied on former KGB men, military officers, St. Petersburg network, Siloviki

Attacked free press

Rebirth of symbols of past

Visible on world stage

Change in language of power from reform, progress, renewal, democracy, modernization to stability, statehood, order, sovereignty, greatness, power, patriotism

Putin on Stage

IV. Battle with the Oligarchs Amassed fortunes during privatization and funded

Yeltsin’s reelection; indirectly responsible for Putin

Society enormously resented them (therefore, some political gain in attacking them)

A deal? Keep fortunes but stay out of politics? Did Putin want to benefit from their support without having to tolerate their independence?

Economic growth or control?

Gusinsky and Media Most/NTV Arrested in 2000

Sought to create free national media network and press

Critical of Putin and Chechnya

Personal animosity between them

Charges economic, nonpayment of debts

Boris Berezovsky Claims Putin was his

protégé

The man behind Yeltsin, but falling out with Putin

Lived in London until death in 2013

Insists Putin and FSB bombed Moscow apartments

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Political prisoner or criminal?

“Should Russia be a democratic society or an authoritarian one?” Arrested in 2003

2001 set up Open Russia Foundation (to replace George Soros); Kissinger, Lord Rothschild, US ambassador

Political aspirations; discussed creation of parliamentary republic

Charged with fraud, embezzlement

Freed 2014

2004-2008

VA. 2003 Parliamentary Elections Kremlin emphasized

threats

To double GDP, overcome poverty, modernize army

Removed Yeltsin people

5% barrier; United Russia 38%

Defeat of liberals; free, but arena of self-expression narrowed

VB. 2004 Presidential Elections Putin did not campaign 64% turnout, 71% vote for

him Drew on Russian

neoconservatism: a form of loyalty to regime for political class

Regime right, alternatives worse

Cult of Putin Would he run in 2008 or

be appointed Prime Minister?

VC. Mysterious Deaths 2006 Anna Politkovskaya

shot dead; Whistle-blower A. Litvinenko poisoned in London same year; certain Putin had her killed

Alexander LitvinenkoGessen: “all of these possibilities, taken separately, seem unlikely, and taken together seem almost absurd. The simple and evident truth is that Putin’s Russia is a country where political rivals and vocal critics are often killed, and at least sometimes the order comes directly form the president’s office.”

Traces of thallium found in him

VI. Putin Doctrine in Foreign Policy

Pro-Western Orientation, Priority for Economic Interests, Normalization

A. Relations with US: strained over Kosovo and NATO enlargement; better after 9-11

Start of 2000 best; endorsed US military presence in Central Asia and Afghanistan

Post 2003 Took European position

in 2003 Iraq war

America took Russia for granted, considered important only when dangerous

61% believed US forcing will on world

Why New Flexing of Muscles?•Disagreement within Western world

•Disappointment with help for economic transformation

•War in Iraq

•Belief that West does not want strong Russia

•Bush’s new missile defense system

VII. Emergence of Putinism Several paths out of out of oligarchic capitalism; Putin

chose state capitalism with support from apparatchiki

Putin regime reflected his ideas but also a reaction to Yeltsin past. Putin phenomenon possible because people wanted law and order

Statist from KGB who supports market; market authoritarianism

Believes democratic institutions undermine state

Created single Party-State; revival of Russian conservatism

Russia’s international prestige rose again under his leadership

2008-2012

Medvedev’s Background Born September 14, 1965,

in Leningrad, the only child of two professors

Completed PhD in private, corporate, and securities law

Taught civil law

Met Putin in mayor’s office in early 1990s

Also had no ties to the KGB

First leader with no known links with Communist Party

Youngest head of state since Nicholas II

Putin’s Puppet? Won in March 2008 with

70% of the vote

Refused to debate other candidates or to campaign

Positioned himself as cautious liberal

Appointed Putin his Prime Minister

Began to Speak in Different Terms Claimed Russia needs

stronger political opposition

Criticized law that toughened registration of human rights groups

Emphasized economic vulnerability: dependence on energy extraction

Tandemocracy? Skolkovo (Russia’s Silicon

Valley) and the transition to the digital age

Unveils plan to improve investment climate (and to attack corruption)

Hinted he may not run again

2011 changed electoral law to 6-year presidency

2012 Putin becomes president & appoints Medvedev prime minister

Putin’s Third Term, 2012+ February 2012 Pussy Riot

May inaugural demonstrations

Stricter legislation against LGBT community

2014 Sochi Olympics

March 2014 Crimean referendum

War in eastern Ukraine

Influence of philosopher Ivan Ilyin, 1883-1954

Conservative Russian monarchist in the Slavophile tradition

Disdained Western-style democracy

A New Cold War? Joint Chiefs Chairman

Nominee Says Russia Is Top Military Threat

“Marine Commandant Joe Dunford says Ukraine can’t counter Russian aggression without lethal military assistance”

Putin & Russia’s Resurgence• Country as great as fear it

inspires

• State capitalism

• Trappings of democracy

• Nationalism, anti-Westernism

• Closed system, control over information & money

• “Russia will be great or will not be”

• 1999-2008: real wages more than tripled; unemployment and poverty more than halved