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Arab-Israeli situation report.

Turkey may strengthen ties with Israel. Kenya - British anticipate civil disobe- dience campaign and disorders.

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

13 December 1958

DAILY BRIEF

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1. THE COMMUNIST BLOCV Z Communist China: Peiping's initial effort to establish

»

communes in the larger cities, although cautious and com- paratively slow, apparently caused considerable confusion and tension in tPeiping and Shanghaio In rural areas, the Chinese Communists now are consolidating the changes already made, The full impact of the communes is just being sensed by Overseas Chinese, who are disturbed over the impending destruction of traditional family life on the mainland.

\ \

(Page 1)

IL ASIA -AFRICA *UAR-Ira : Nasir is reported "dismayed" by the ar-

rest of pro-U7-YR figures in Iraq, and has voiced even stronger concern than heretofore that the Qasim regime will fall under the influence of Communist elements, Cairo continues cautious in both public and private pronouncements on recent develop- ments in Iraq.

In Baghdad, rumors are widespread that some secret executions have taken place. Speculation centers not only on the conspirators in the recent plot, but also on Jamali and '

other pro-Western adherents of the old regime

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_Israel-UAR: \

\no signs of un- usual Israeli military activity, and Israeli internal propaganda '

has been giving low-key treatment to the border situation. How- ever,""‘United Nations officials remain concerned over Israeli \\\\\ intentions. The director general of the Israeli Defense Ministry

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. conferred with Jacques Soustelle and Guy Mollet in Paris on 8 December. The Israeli hief of staff ls ' P '

t c was a 0 in aris a the time. UAR military leaders met in an all-day session on 10 December.

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(Page 2)

. Turkey-Israel: In a significant shift in its Middle Eastg

. policy, Turkey may soon strengthen diplomatic and economic 1

ties with Israel. An exchange of ministers, which the two countries are considering, would be sure to draw an adverse Arab reaction.

\ \

(Page 4)

Kenya! British officials in Kenya anticipate a civil dis- obedience campaign in the next two months initiated by African leaders as a means of buildin u ressure to obtai a , g p p n ssurances

6 that Kenya will be permitted to evolve as an essentially African state The British fear that some disorders are likely. we 5> o

Thailand-Cambodia; The verbal war between Thailand and Cambodia is becoming increasingly vitriolic; and Thailand has charged that a company of Cambodian troo s kidnaped five of its nationals in the border area.

(Page 6)

. III. THE WEST Honduras: Tension i‘s" rising in the wake of the armed

forces’ demand on 8 December that the President establish ,1 _

a coalition government and halt partisan attempts. to undermine the position of the military. Military forces in the important city of San Pedro Sula--a stronghold of the President's Liberal part --e ect clashes with armed civilians at any time.

(Page '7)

13 Dec 58 DAILY BRIEF . 11a

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Braz11 Government off1c1a1s apparently mtend to establish new machinery to expandttrade w1th the Sov1et bloc posslbly 1nc1ud1ng a spec1a1 office 1n Europe At the same t1me, however they cont1nue to deny any 1nten

?§ t1on of b de d lomatic relat n b ond th nt roa mng 1p 1o s ey e prese t1es w1th Poland and Czechoslovakm, and appear opposed to perm1tt1ng a Sov1et trade off1ce 1n Rio de Jane1ro

13 Dec as DAILY BRIEF

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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC

Peiping Encountering Difficulty Uriarin Commwtfifl Peiping's initial efforts to set up people's communes in

urban areas are apparently encountering difficulty in some of the nation's major cities. The regime has moved cautiously and comparatively slowly in this direction, but it has made clear its inte tablished in urban areas.

\

‘despite the regime's cautious attempts to organize communes in Peiping and Shanghai, considerable confusion and tension has been cre- ated. In Shanghai, banks were forced to suspend payments because so many depositors were withdrawing and spending their savings lest they be absorbed by the communes. In Peiping, so many private possessions are for sale that they

e a glut on the market.\

In the countryside, the first phase of the communaliza- tion drive is over, and the regime is moving on to the next stage--improving and consolidating the communes. Fore- most among the problems being encountered seem to be the inadequacy of the new communal messes, the distribution of income under the competing demands of the state, the commune, and its members, and the reluctance of the in- dividual Chinese to depart from the traditional forms of family life.

Although the full impact of Peiping's; far-reaching re- organization of Chinese society is just beginning. to be felt among Overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia, they are in general disturbed over the impending destruction of tradition- al family life on the mainland and feel that ties with their relatives on the mainland will diminish. This concern can best be seen in the sharp drop in the flow of remittances to the mainland.

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l\ Al IKITEI I IIZI-1|\lf'l= Ill II I FTIKI 13 Dec 58 ‘T-\'EpF$3ed for Release: 2020/01/23 002998402 Page 1

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I I. ASIA-AFRICA

ISi-*ae1-,~‘.UA'R .,

The Israeli Government appears to be awaiting further results from its complaint against the UAR in the UN Security Council, although it does not expect any favorable resolution. Pirime Minister Ben-Gurion has avoided a Knesset debate of the Syrian border situation but said steps are being taken to rectify various supply, shelter, and communications de- ficiencies among se.ft1'ements.on the Syrian border. The Is- raeli press is playing down the situation!

1

UN'truce officials earlier reported troop movements and a build-up of Israeli forces which they regarded as alarming. A large number of tanks and artillery was reported in the northern tip of Israel, in addition to a new concealed bivouac area below the drained bed of Lake Hula. The rerouting of a UN convoy to avoid the concentration area of Israeli paratroops may in- dicate contingent plans to employ those troops in any possible Israeli attack.

mobilization or deplo ' eserve forces,l would be re uireq or any successfuflsraeli assault against the strong defensive

positions of Syrian border forces.

} ‘increased Is-

raeli military activity in the border area. A UN armistice offi- cial was quoted on 11 December as saying a mobile Israeli force was concentrated near the border for an attack expected after a second Sec eduled, on Israel's com laint. ' p any Israeli -attack would be directed at the border sector between Lake Hula and Lake Tiberias together with a paratroop assault behind Syrian

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13 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02998402

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lines, a fear also expressed by UN observers. On 9 Decem- ber Egyptian naval forces and ground units on Israel's southern border were alerted,\ \and a meeting of UAR military leaders was held in Cairo on 10 December. Syrian aerial reconnaissance of I'!:,QI’1';hfiZ7Z'l.f. Israel on 10 December did not detect any troop concentrations.

Director General Shimon Peres of the Israeli Defense Ministry comterred with Jacques Soustelle, French minister of information, and Minister of State Guy Mollet on 8 Decem- ber. Peres, Soustelle, and Mollet were prominent in nego- tiating Israeli-French collaboration against Egypt in 1956. Israeli army chief of staff Laskov and the Israeli director of Military Intelligence have also been in Paris.

\

“M 13 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page _3

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Turkey and Israel May Restore Normal Relations Turkey and Israel are approaching agreement to resume

ministerial representation after nearly two years of reduced diplomatic status, according to the Israeli first secretary in Ankara. The legations of both countries have been run by charges d'afifair:es.1 since the Turks withdrew their minister to Israel in early 1957, in the aftermath of the Israeli in- vasion of Egypt. Having lost its close ties with Iraq, Ankara may feel less compulsion to consider the reactions of the Arab countries.

The Israelis have long been pressing the Turks to resume relations on the ministerial level. The Turks, how- ever, may see no particular urgency, as they already have close working relations with the Israelis in military and in- telligence matters.

An expansion of trade relations is also apparently under discussion, although any significant increase in economic activity seems unlikely.

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13 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02998402

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Early Civil Disobedience Campaign by Africans in Kenya Likely British officials in Kenya believe African nationalists in

that crown colony, led by the 14 elected African members of the local Legislative Council, will probably launch a civil disobedi- ence campaign sometime in the next two months, most likely in February. The officials fear such a campaign--foreshadowed in the statements of Kenya's two principal African leaders at the All-African Peoples’ Gonference in Accra this week--would lead to "disturbances," but they claim they are prepared to meet that contingency.

The principal objective would be to force constitutional talks in which the nationalists could press their long-standing demands for greater representation of Kenya's 6,000,000 Africans in the 85-member council, and for the abolition of certain features of the present constitution, instituted by British Colonial Secre- tary Lennox-Boyd late last year. These demands were rejected by Lennox-Boyd last month. Ultimately, however, the Africans, whose basic complaint is the dominant political and economic position of the 60,000 .Eflr’opeans in Kenya, are unlikely to be satisfied with anything less than formal recognition of the princi- ple of eventual majority rule and a plan leading to self-government by stages.

British officials are trying, without much optimism, to find a formula for conciliating the Africans within the framework of the present constitution. British officials and settler leaders alike are concerned over the growth of a Mau-Mau--type anti-European secret tribal society outlawed last January, and about the vigor- ‘ b Af '

l d l ‘f d f ous ' campaign y rican ea ers to g 01‘1 y an orce the re- lease Of ¢0nViCted Jomo Kenyatta, sentenced to seven years in 1953.

13 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02998402

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Leaders of the ruling Thai military group are accel- erating their campaign to discredit Cambodia and Premier Sihanouk before world opinion, Through the press and com- muniqués issued from the headquarters of Marshal Sarit's Revolutionary party, the Thais have accused Cambodia of various provocative military moves, and have cast doubt on Sihanoukls motives in breaking off relations with Thailand and on his ability to run his own country,

Despite indications earlier in the week that the two countries were coming close to agreement on points at is- sue in the present dispute, Sarit is clearly not ready to let the crisis subside, He is doubtless finding it valuable for arousing public enthusiasm for his regime and strengthen- ing his control of the ruling military group, Moreover, in view of Cambodian charges to the United Nations that the dispatch of Thai rei.nforcements to the border was a "threat to the peace," Sarit is probably anxious to get the Thai side of the issue fully publicized,

There is also a strong likelihood that the Thais, by a little saber-rattling, may hope to frighten the Cambodians into deposing Sihanouk. Recent reports indicate that Thai leaders may be exploring ways and means of promoting a coup attempt against Sihanouk, While it is doubtful that the Thais will have any success, these reports point up their strong antagonism toward. Sihanouk,

Sarit probably has no intention of deliberately going to war with Cambodia, but Bangkok's campaign of verbal abuse will heighten tension between the two countries and increase the danger of serious border incidents, Bangkok's truculence will also tend to reinforce chronic Cambodian fears of Thailand. In connection with Cambodia's request for the dispatch of observers, Sihanouk has already cabled UN Secretary General. Hammarskjold his fears "that Thailand is seekin pretexts to attack us "\

"F9P—S-EGREIJZ

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III. THE WEST

Civilian-Military Rivalry in Honduras Nears Climax

Members of the administration Liberal party in the important north coast city of San Pedro Sula are "boiling mad" over the armed forces’ 8 December demand that President Villeda reorganize his government to include rep- resentatives of the opposition and put an end to partisan efforts to reduce the authority of the military. Honduran Liberals ar.e,-undoubitedly considering means, including vio- lence, to eliminate what they regard as the military effort to dictate to the civil government.

Military forces in San Pedro Sula have been augmented with the concentration there of garrisons normally stationed -

in smaller north coast towns. The approximately 1,200 troops now in the city arte on the alert and expect clashes with armed Liberals at any time.

Even a relatively minor incident could set off serious violence. The Liberals have an unknown but probably sizable quantity of arms and, while they would probably not planla. direct assault on an army garrison, their public demonstra- tions, such as the one planned for 14 December in San Pedro Sula, could easily get out of control. In the event of serious rioting, the armed forces would probably depose the President-- a move they were considering before they handed him their ultimatum.

The American Embassy doubts that the President appre- ciates the seriousness of the situation. By 11 December, three days after being handed the military ultimatum, he had not yet approached either 0 osition party about participat- fihg in the government.

S'E'€RE-T-

13 Dec 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN page ;7 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02998402

Approved for Release: 202010]/23 C029§8402 ‘I bi

Brazilian - Soviet-bloc Trade Dlevelopments

Brazil's determination to explore all possibilities of increasing trade with the Soviet bloc is underscored by the acknowledgment that negotiations with the USSR have been going on for two months in Washington and the announcement that the Foreign Ministry's chief economic officer plans to visit Prague and Warsaw in the near future. A policy of actively seeking bloc markets was formalized last August as part of Brazil's effort to stem its serious balance of payments difficulties and prevent cutbacks in its eco- nomic development program,

Although top Brazilian officials have characterized as "unacceptable" or "deficient" all bloc offers received since the conclusion in October of a small-scale cocoa-for-oil barter deal with the Soviet Union, the Foreign Ministry re- portedly is discussing plans for a special office in Europe to help screen and centralize the growing number of bloc feelers. The Brazilian political police are backing this proposal as a means of precluding the establishment of a Soviet trade office in Rio de Janeiro, and of reducing the publicity which now frequently accompanies reports of bloc trade offers. President Kubitschek’s statement on 10 December that his administration will never renew "either diplomatic or commercial relations with the Soviet Union" was probably designed to counterbalance this publicity and to rule out the possibility of a formal treaty or exchange of commercial agents.

It has been reported, meanwhile, that a special Czech trade mission may visit Brazil in January to discuss. a five- year $400,000,000 barter deal involving a variety of industrial installations for Brazil's economic development program and an undetermined number of small aircraft, possibly Super Aero-45s of the type sold to Argentina in 1956.

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—S-E-GR-E-T-

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THE PRESIDENT The Vice President

Executive Offices of the White House

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Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Special Adviser to the President Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the A11‘ Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior

Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director

Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman

National Security Agency The Director

National Indications Center The Director

United States Information Agency The Director

Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02998402

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