WEBINAR: Semiconductor Super Cycle - Market Trends ... · Semiconductor Super Cycle - Market Trends, ... Market Trends, Drivers and Forecasts. ... Power management. Sensors and MEMS

WEBINAR:Semiconductor Super Cycle - Market Trends, Drivers and Forecasts

9 November, 2017

Webinar Agenda

• 5:00 – 5:05 pm CET/ 8:00 – 8:05 am PSTIntroduction by Denada Hodaj, Sales Manager SEMI Europe

• 5:05 – 5:35 pm CET/ 8:05 – 8:35 am PST• Presentation by Lara Chamness

Senior Market Analyst Manager, SEMI Industry Research and Statistics

• 5:35 – 5:45 pm CET/ 8:35 – 8:45 am PSTQ&A Session

• 5:45 pmAdditional Resource and Contact Information

Denada HodajSales Manager, SEMI EuropeTel: +33 4 56 52 94 45Mob: +33 6 45 68 34 87Email: [email protected]


Empowering Innovation and Shaping the Value Chain

Attending SEMICON Europa in Munich?

Feel free to request a meeting, contact:

Christian Gregor DieseldorffSenior Analyst, Director of Market ResearchSEMI Industry Research & StatisticsTel: 1.408.943.7949 Email: [email protected]

• Industry Outlook and Forecast for Fab Spending and Capacity 12:05 pm, Tuesday, November 14, 2017 @ 21st Fab Management Forum

• 200mm Fabs Still Flexing Muscles10:05 am, Wednesday, 15 November 2017 @ Market Briefing

• Semiconductor Global Market Forecast and Trends Overview11:45 am, Thursday, 16 November 2017 @ SEMI Global Expositions

WEBINAR:Semiconductor Super Cycle - Market Trends, Drivers and Forecasts

Lara ChamnessSenior Manager Market Analysis

November 9, 2017

Presentation Outline

• About Us

• Industry Overview

• Fabs, Equipment, & Materials

• 200 mm

• China

• Summary

About Us, SEMI

7

SEMI Connects the Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chain for Collaboration

Substrates

Materials

Components

Subassemblies

Equipment IP

Design

Fabless

Device Manufacturing

PackagingTest

System Integration

Applications

Collaboration segmentsAfter January 2018

Special Interest Groups:• Semiconductor Components,

Instruments and Subsystems (SCIS)• Chemcial and Gas Manufacturers

Group (CGMG)• SEMI integrated Packaging,

Assembly and Testing (SiPAT)8

About SEMI Industry Research & Statistics

• The SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group provides market data and market research reports to serve customers in device manufacturing, semiconductor processing equipment, components, materials, semiconductor packaging materials, and etc.

• Our Mission is to delivering authoritative, accurate, relevant, and unbiased market data to our members, covering the semiconductor and related manufacturing supply chains

• For our major reports, we collect actual data from suppliers around the world following strict professional standards of confidentiality. Our reports provide trends, forecast, and outlook to help the industry make important investment, strategic, and business planning decisions.

• For additional information regarding our products and SEMI data collection program, please visit us at www.semi.org/marketinfo or contact us at [email protected].

9

http://www.semi.org/marketinfo

mailto:[email protected]

https://twitter.com/SEMI_mktstats

https://twitter.com/SEMI_mktstats

SEMI Market Data Reports and Databases

Fab Forecast Semiconductor, MEMS &

Sensors, LED, Power Devices

• SEMI FabView New Update

• World Fab Forecast Nov,

17

• World Fab Watch

• Global 200mm Fab Outlook to 2021New!

• Opto/LED Fab Forecast

• Opto/LED Fab Watch

• Customized Fab Reports

• Worldwide OSAT Manufacturing Sites Database New!

• Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook Coming soon!

• China Semiconductor Packaging Market Outlook TBD

Device Packaging and Testing Market

Material MarketSemiconductor

Materials

• Material Market Data Subscription Update

• Photomask Characterization Report Update

• Silicon Reclaim Wafer Characterization Update

• Mass Flow Controllers Report Update

Equipment & Component Market

• Equipment Market Data Subscription• Semiconductor Equipment

Market Statistics (WWSEMS)

• New Equipment Forecast

• SEMI Secondary Fab Equipment Report TBD

• Mass Flow Controller Market Statistics

Globalfoundries

• SEMI China IC Industry Outlook 2017 New! - a comprehensive report and database containing in-depth analysis of China’s wide-ranging IC manufacturing ecosystem within the global semiconductor industry.

10

Industry OverviewIndustry Overview

Electronics Supply Chain

Equipment

Materials

Semiconductors

Electronic End Equipment

2016Forecast

2017

US$41B US$54B

US$1,493BUS$1,457B

US$344B US$401B

US$44B US$47B

• The US$1.5 Trillion electronics end Market is enabled by almost US$400 Billion in semiconductor products

• Semiconductor materials and equipment represent a >US$90 Billion industry that allows semiconductor device makers to provide advanced device and packaging technologies.Source: IC Insights, SEMI, September 2017

Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved12

Industry Trends and Growth Drivers

• Expect a Strong 2017 With Numerous Applications Driving Growth Through 2025

Applications

Storage*

Industrial*

Wireless

Automotive*

Consumer

*Long-term Revenues

Largest Growth Products in 2017Memory

(DRAM due to strong pricing)

Sensors

Opto Electronics

Analog Devices

Discretes

Long Term Forecast to 2025

IoT * $16B -> $62B

Automotive* $32B -> $51B

5G ** $0B -> $20B

AR/VR*** $4B -> $131B

AI*** $5B -> $50B

* Semiconductor value** Network/Devices*** Market Size

Source: SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium, January 2017 Virtual Reality (VR)Augmented Reality (AR)AI Artificial Intelligence (AI)

• Robust volume shipments and higher ASPs for Memory are driving strong 2017 revenue growth.• Storage, industrial, wireless, and automotive applications are also contributing to strong 2017 growth.• Connectivity, data centers, communications, automotive, and advanced software will spur strong demand for

semiconductors through 2025.


Year-to-Date “Snapshot”: Up across the board and record levels

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Silicon Shipments

IC Leadframes

IC Units

Mass Flow Controllers

Equipment Billings

% Y-o-Y Change

Year-over-Year Growth Comparison through September

Source: SEMI and SIA/WSTS

Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved

Semiconductor Industry Outlook2017 soars past $400 billion

Source: IC Insights, October 2017

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

US$

Billi

ons

Semiconductor Revenue


2018 Semiconductor Forecasts

Cowan LRA (Oct 17), 3.3%

Gartner (Oct 17), 4.0%

WSTS (Aug 17), 4.3%

IHS Markit (Oct 17), 5.4%

IC Insights (Jul 17), 7.0%

Semico Research (Jul 17), 7.8%

Future Horizons (Sep 17), 16.0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Source: SEMI, October 2017

Average = 6.8%


Fabs, Equipment and Materials

Semiconductor Wafer Fab Migration to Asia-Pacific

• In 2000, Asia-Pacific-based companies (excluding Japan) represented less than 30% of the installed semiconductor fab capacity globally. China’s installed fab capacity was just 2%

• With strong growth and investments by foundries and memory in Asia-Pacific, these companies now have 50% of the installed capacity base, with a 12% share for China 12%

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

Americas, 14%

China, 12%

Europe, 8%

Japan, 18%

Korea, 19%

SE Asia, 7%

Taiwan, 22%

2016 Capacity Distribution

Americas, 24%

China, 2%

Europe, 16%Japan, 32%

Korea, 11%

SE Asia, 4% Taiwan, 11%

2000 Capacity Distribution


http://www.semi.org/en/Store/MarketInformation/fabdatabase/ctr_027238

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

E

Equipment $B Materials $B

Total Equipment Revenue vs. Total Material Revenue Trends

Source: Equipment: SEMI/SEAJ, SEMI EMDSMaterials: Rose and Associates 1987-1999, SEMI, MMDS August 2017

200 mm ramp

“IrrationalExuberance”

300 mm ramp


http://www.semi.org/en/Store/MarketInformation/equipment/ctr_027202


Equipment Trends Over Time

59%67% 68% 70%

75% 79% 80%

23%

20% 19% 16%10%

9% 9%9%7% 8% 6% 10% 7% 7%

9% 5% 5% 8% 5% 5% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 YTD 2017F 2018F

Wafer Processing Equipment Total Test Assembly & Packaging Other Front End*

Forecast will be

released next month

Source: SEMI EMDS* Includes: Fab Facilities, Mask/Reticle, and Wafer Manufacturing Equipment

$8.9B $24.0B $47.7B $32.9B $39.9B $36.5B $35.5B ~$47B $???B



25%21%

27% 24% 26%

15%14%

15% 21%24%

24%

24%18% 16%

16%

19%21% 22% 20% 15%

11%14% 10% 11% 12%

5% 7% 8% 7% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 YTD

Deposition (CVD, Sputter, & Other) Etch Equipment Other Wafer Process Equipment*Expose & Write Equipment Inspection & Measurement Equipment Surface Conditioning/Clean & Dry Equipment

Wafer Processing Equipment Trends Over Time

* Includes: CMP, Ion Implant, Resist Processing Equipment, Thermal Processing, and Other Wafer Processing EquipmentSource: SEMI EMDS


2000-2017YTD Average = 21%

21


Regional Semiconductor Materials Market

China15.1%

Europe7.1%

Japan14.6%

Korea16.2%

North America11.1%

Taiwan22.5%

ROW13.3%

2017F = $46.7 Billion

Source: SEMI, MMDS August 2017Totals may not add due to rounding

China3.6%

Europe9.9%

Japan26.9%

Korea10.5%

North America18.5%

Taiwan15.8%

ROW14.8%

2003 = $23.5 Billion



Silicon versus Organic Substrates Revenues

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

Rev

enue

s (U

S$ M

illion

s)

Silicon Organic Substrates

Silicon revenues do not include SOI or reclaimed silicon

Source: SEMI, MMDS August 2017



Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends

Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2016; MMDS August 2017



200mm

200mm Fab Capacity Trends by Wafer Size


200mm Fab Expansion and New Construction Drivers

• Over 70% of all IC content in automobiles, mobile devices, and wearables are made on =< 200mm wafers

• Increase content in smart phones.• Example iPhone 6 Plus: About 75% of its chips are made on 200mm wafers

Mobile and WirelessAutomotiveIoTIndustrialWearables and Health

Analog and Mixed SignalPower managementSensors and MEMSLogic/MCUDiscretes

Global 200mm Fab Outlook, July 2017. Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved. 27

Trend: Fabs Become Larger (Again)

More capacity per fab

Largest Fabs in wpm:

1995: 25K-30K (Japan, Europe)2001: 45K-50K (Korea, Taiwan, Europe)2007: 100K-140K (Korea, Japan)2010: 80K-110K (Korea, Taiwan, Europe)2015: 100K-140K (Taiwan, Europe, Korea, China, SE Asia)2021*: 100K-140K (Taiwan, SE Asia, China, Europe, Korea)

*China by 2021: most China fabs are about 50-60K

Size matters until a certain point

Fabs have maxed out capacity potential:Since about 2015, most fabs are running at 100% utilization with no slowdown in sight


Capacity Changes by Product Type

Change 2016 to 2021MEMS 60%Discrete 22%Power 19%Analog 15%Foundry 11%Logic 6%MPU 0%Other 0%

Source: 200mm Fab Outlook, July 2017, SEMI

MEMS makes big leap

4Q15 to 4Q21

Driven mainly by mobile and wireless, IOT, automotive, the 200mm market is thriving


Capacity Changes by Region

4Q15 to 4Q21

Change 2016 to 2021China 48%SE Asia 35%Americas 15%Japan 5%Taiwan 5%Europe & Mideast 4%Korea 0%Source: 200mm Fab Report, July 2017, SEMI

China is adding most capacity


30

China

1702

1920

23132176

2307 2271

326

534

877

609693 614

1376 1386 14361567 1613 1657

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US$

Milli

ons

Import Export Trade Deficit

Dominated by Imports - Semiconductors are China’s No. 1 Import, Resulting in Large Trade Deficit

Source: China Customs, SEMI April 2017

SEMI China IC Industry Outlook 2017, Version 18, October 2017. Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved.32

China National IC Industry Development Guideline国家纲要目标及达成度分析

2015 Goal 2020 GoalTotal Revenue > 350 Billion RMB > 870 Billion RMB (CAGR > 20%)

IC Design Part of key area technologies approach international first class level (e.g. mobile smart terminal, network communication)

Key area technologies achieve international leading edge (e.g. mobile smart terminal, network communication, cloud computing,IOT, big data, etc.)

Packaging & Test Mid- to high-end revenue > 30% revenue Technology to achieve international leading edge

IC Manufacture 32/28nm mass production 16/14nm mass production

Materials 300mm silicon wafer into production line Enter global supply chain

Equipment 65-45nm key equipment into production line

Enter global supply chain

Source: SEMI, July 2017

SEMI China IC Industry Outlook 2017, Version 18, October 2017. Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved. 33

52%

11%

45%

13%

9%

19%21%

35%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

IC Design 设计业 YoY Rate %

IC Design Sector is Booming with 20+% Growth Rate 中国集成电路设计保持高速发展

2008-2016年CAGR = 22%

Unit：100M RMB

单位：亿元人民币

Source: CSIA, SEMI, April 2017


-1%

-20%

26%

55%

6% 6%

14%10% 13%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Packaging&Test 封测业 YoY Rate %

China IC Packaging and Test Grows Steadily中国集成电路封装测试业稳步成长

2008-2016年CAGR = 12%Unit：100M RMB

单位：亿元人民币

Source: CSIA, SEMI, April 2017


New Fab Projects – China Leads the Way中国主导全球新建产线趋势


Silicon24%

Electronic Gases19%

Photoresists & Ancilliaries

16%

Other**41%

Wafer Fabrication Materials

32%

Packaging Materials68%

2016 China Material Market by Segment2016中国半导体材料分类市场

Leadframes25%

Substrates23%Bonding Wire

21%

Other *31%

SEMI China IC Industry Outlook 2017, Version 18, October 2017. Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved.

Packaging Materials Other* includes: Ceramic packages, Encapsulation Resins, Die Attach Materials, Solder Balls, and Wafer Level DielectricsWafer Fab Materials Other** includes: Photomasks, Process Chemicals, Sputtering Targets, CMP, low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric precursors, organometallic precursors, other substrates, etc

75

China Domestic Equipment Suppliers Cannot Meet Market Demand中国半导体本土供应商的设备自给率非常低

5%

6%

8%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

$0

$7

2013 2014 2015 2016

US$

Billi

ons

China market Local Supplier sales

Source: SEMI/SEAJ, CEPEA, May 2017 *China Market refers to SEMI WWSEMS by China region*Domestic supplier sales refer to CEPEA statistics, including ~20% export.


Summary

• Status of the Industry• Record Year for device and fab and equipment spending• Materials up but selling prices under pressure

• 200 mm• Fabs are at max capacity• Large growth in MEMS, Discrete, Power and Analog segments• China is adding the most fab 200mm fab capacity

• China• Emerging is a world player in the semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem• IC Design has overtaken Packaging & Test• Many new fab projects (200 mm & 300 mm)• Materials market is growing and will shift to more fab materials• Equipment suppliers advancing but still can’t meet domestic demand

Q&A

Webinar Agenda

• 5:00 – 5:05 pm CET/ 8:00 – 8:05 am PSTIntroduction by Denada Hodaj, Sales Manager SEMI Europe

• 5:05 – 5:35 pm CET/ 8:05 – 8:35 am PST• Presentation by Lara Chamness

Senior Market Analyst Manager, SEMI Industry Research and Statistics

• 5:35 – 5:45 pm CET/ 8:35 – 8:45 am PSTQ&A Session

• 5:45 pmAdditional Resource and Contact Information


China IC Industry Outlook 2017 with Supply Chain Database

POLICIES – ECOSYSTEM – INVESTMENTS - CAPACITIES

Segmented Market Details

Forward Analysis

Opportunities and Challenges

To Request a Sample Report

www.semi.org/china-ic-industry-outlook

To order, call SEMIGlobal Customer Service at1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

http://info.semi.org/china-ic-industry-outlook

Connect to the Trends in 200mm and Grow Your Business

Global 200mm capacity is growing and approaching levels close to those last seen in 2007, driven by demand for mobile, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, sensors, MEMS, analog devices, power semiconductors, and other applications suited for 200mm production.

Is your business ready to take advantage of the boom in 200mm manufacturing?


http://www.semi.org/200mm-outlook-report-sample


http://www.semi.org/200mm-outlook-report-sample

Connect to the Latest Fab Details with SEMI World Fab Forecast

Past, Present, and Future Outlook

IDM, Foundry, Discrete and Power, Opto/LED, and MEMS


www.semi.org/world-fab-forecast-sample


http://info.semi.org/semi-world-fab-forecast

http://www.semi.org/world-fab-forecast-sample


http://info.semi.org/semi-equipment-market-data-

subscriptionTo order, call SEMI

Global Customer Service at1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

Worldwide benchmark for the semiconductor equipment market• Monthly global billings report for North American based equipment manufactures

• Detailed monthly worldwide semiconductor equipment market statistics (WWSEMS) report for 22 categories to 7 “ship-to” market regions

• Bi-annual Semiconductor equipment forecast

http://info.semi.org/semi-equipment-market-data-subscription

Connect to the Worldwide Semiconductor Materials Markets and Trends

Annual market revenues by 7 “ship-to” regions for • 9 segments for wafer fab related materials• 7 segments for packaging related materials

2 in-depth reports• Silicon reclaim and photomask characterization reports


www.semi.org/semi-materials-market-data-

suscriptionTo order, call SEMI

Global Customer Service at1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

Past, Present, and Future Forecast

http://info.semi.org/semi-materials-market-data-subscription

Empowering Innovation and Shaping the Value Chain

Thank You for Joining Us!

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Questions about SEMI Market Data?Please contact us at [email protected]

Documents

WEBINAR: Semiconductor Super Cycle - Market Trends ... · Semiconductor Super Cycle - Market Trends, ... Market Trends, Drivers and Forecasts. ... Power management. Sensors and MEMS