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Why We Fail to Stop Global Warming?

為何我們不能制止全球暖化？

Date: 16 Nov. 2017

Dr Edward Yiu 姚松炎博士

Founder of REDBRIC 房產發展研究中心創辦人

Catastrophic Warning 災難警告

• On Nov 13, 2017. 2017年11月13日

• 15,000 scientists give catastrophic

warning about the fate of the world. 一萬五千名科學家聯署發出災難警告

• Time is running out! 時日無多!

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http://www.independent.co.uk/environ

ment/letter-to-humanity-warning-

climate-change-global-warming-

scientists-union-concerned-

a8052481.html#

Global jump in CO2 二氧化碳急升

• On Nov 14, 2017. 2017年11月14日

• Est. Worldwide CO2 emissions are up

about 2% in 2017 預計全球2017年碳排放上升2%

• China 中國 +3.5%

• India 印度 +2%

• US 美國 – 0.4%

• Europe 歐洲 – 0.2%

3http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1364633-20171114.htm

Trash Isles 膠島

• Trash Isles, an area the size of France, has

formed by plastic trash in the Pacific Ocean. 一個如法國面積由廢膠組成的島嶼在太平洋形成

• “We plan to become the world‘s 196th country,

and our efforts to do so will help abolish plastic

pollution and save the oceans.” 我們正向聯合國申請將它成為第196個國家，目的是終止塑膠污染及拯救海洋

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https://www.change.org/p/un-secretary-

general-ant%C3%B3nio-guterres-accept-

the-trash-isles-as-an-official-country-help-

protect-our-oceans

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• WWF Report 2017” 2017年報告:

• “Hong Kong people are living beyond the Earth’s limits. 3.9 Earths are needed if everyone lived the lifestyle of Hong Kong people.”香港人的生活方式需要3.9個地球的資源

HK Ecological Footprint 香港生態足跡

Biocapacity Ecological footprint

2012

Times

Hong

Kong

0.01 global ha per

person

6.7 global ha per person 670 times

World 1.7 global ha per

person

2.6 global ha per person 1.5 times

http://awsassets.wwfhk.panda.org/downloads/hong_kong_ecological_footprint_report_2017.pdf

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•房產學人(20150609)的香港用電量研究:

HK Electricity Consumption 香港人用電量

HK 香港 2005-2014

Industrial 工業用電量 -27%

Commercial 商業用電量 +13%

Household 家居用電量 +27%Total 總用電量 +7%

http://news.stheadline.com/dailynews/headline_news_detail_columnist.asp?i

d=332989&section_name=wtt&kw=222

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IPCC 2014• Global Warming is a fact 全球暖化已成不爭的事實，• Extreme Climate is approaching 惡劣天氣迫在眉睫，• Must take immediate actions 必須馬上行動!!

http://www.ipcc.ch/

• Energy 能源

• Water 水

• Food 糧食

• Materials 物料Resources IN

輸入

• Consumption

消耗

• Waste 排放

City 城市• Water Drained 污水

• Gas Exhausted 廢氣

• Kitchen Wastes 廚餘

• Recyclable Wastes 可再用

• Other Solid Wastes 其他

Wastes OUT 輸出

Traditional Linear City Model 傳統城市模式

High Level of Pollution and CO2 Emission, Low Self-sufficiency and Non-sustainable高污染、高碳排放、低自給、不可持續。

Resource Extraction Increased by 125% 資源採掘上升125%

全球資源消耗, 1980 - 2030

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Why Fail to Save? 為何拯救失敗?

• 3 Levels of Conflicts 三層矛盾：– 1. People like and dislike nature 人類對大自然既愛且恨

– 2. People’s wealth mostly comes from resources extraction and damaging environment 人類富足大多來自破壞環境，開採資源而來

– 3. Economic growth and social stability rely on continuous growth in consumption 經濟增長和社會穩定依賴不斷增加消耗

姚松炎(2017) 看見香港，良野村，眾新聞，9月19日https://www.hkcnews.com/article/6992/%E7%9C%8B%E8%A6

%8B%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3-%E6%B1%A1%E6%9F%93-

6992/%E7%9C%8B%E8%A6%8B%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF

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Estimates of Economic Losses from Climate Change

全球暖化對經濟捐失的估算

Study 研究 Warming 暖化程度 Impact (% on GDP) 影響 (生產值百分比)

Mendelsohn

et al. (2000)

2 deg by 2060 A cumulative effect of a loss of

0.3% of GDP in 2060

Stern (2005) Bet. 2.4 and 5.8 deg by

2100

An average loss of 5% of global

GDP per annum over the next

two centuries

IPCC (2014) Approx. 2 deg A loss of 0.2% - 2.0% of GDP

per annum

Burke et al.

(2015)

NA Global GDP per capita 23%

lower in 2100

http://www.schroders.com/en/sysglobalassets/digital/us/pdfs/the-impact-of-climate-

change.pdf

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature15725

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How Much CO2 to Cut? 需要減多少二氧化碳?

Greenhouse gases in 2030

2030年溫室氣體排放量

Billion Tons 十億噸

If Paris Agreement 如果達巴黎協定 54 - 56

If 2-deg goal 如果以不升過2度目標 < 42

Extra cut 額外需要減少 - 12 ,-14

- ~25%

https://phys.org/news/2016-11-huge-emissions-paris-climate-goals.html

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Immediate Drop or Future Drop of GDP? 即時經濟下跌抑或長遠經濟下跌

If cut consumption

如減少消耗

If not cut consumption 如不減少消耗

Immediate drop in GDP due consumption cut

即時經濟下跌因消費減少

Future drop in GDP due global warming

未來經濟下跌因全球暖化

Can adapt 可以適應 Impacts may not be reversible

影響可能不能逆轉

Cannot Take Both不可兼得

• you cannot have your cake and eat it

too. 魚與熊掌不可兼得• You can have economic growth—if you

can achieve it—and higher CO2

emissions, or you can shrink economies

and decrease emissions 經濟增長帶來更多碳排放，或減慢經濟以減少碳排放

https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/The-Close-Relationship-

between-Economic-Growth-and-Carbon-Emissions.html

How to be Green but Avoiding GDP Drop?

如何既環保又可避免產值下跌?

• 1. Community Currency 社區貨幣

• 2. Services Matching 服務配對

• 3. Barter and Sharing Economy 以物易物及共享經濟

• For details, next time … 詳情下次繼續 …

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Circular (Economy) City Model循環經濟城市模式

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy/overview/concept

Circular City 循環城市

• The circular city is a city aimed at closing

materials-, energy- and water cycles.

• Closing materials cycles (Cradle to

Cradle) and use of renewables.

• Priority is given to prevention of resource

use, product reuse and recycling.

• 自給自足

• 減少輸入，減少輸出

Levels of circularity (9 R’s) 9層循環• Refuse

• Reduce

• Re-use

• Repair

• Refurbish

• Remanufacture

• Re-purpose

• Recycle

• Recover (energy)

High

Low

Source: Utrecht Sustainability Institute

Example of Remanufacture

Source: Utrecht Sustainability InstituteSource: Utrecht Sustainability Institute

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可持續發展方向A Sustainable Model of Green

Community

零料 Zero-

material

零水 Zero-

water

零食 Zero-

food

零廢 Zero-

waste

零碳 Zero-

fossil energy (CO2)

五層五零可持續發展方向5-level, 5-zeros

sustainability modelYiu, C.Y. and Campos, B. (2013) A Novel Planning Model for Approaching a Zero-Food

and Zero-Waste Community, Int’l Conference on ISSF2014, HK

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Zero Carbon Building HK 香港零碳天地

• Definition of Zero-Carbon (2nd level):

– Offset of operating energy consumed from the grid by on-site renewable energy generation with grid-feed-in

–產出多於消耗GHG emission reduction by on-site renewable

energy: 8,250 tonnes (over 50 years)

Zero means Self-Sufficient “零”表示自給

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Four-Zero Community四零社區

Zero Food and Zero

Waste can only be

achieved in community

level or above, as it

requires a lot of open

space to handle

零耗糧和零排廢需要空間，不能在高樓層建築內達致

個人Individuals

建築物Buildings

社區 Community

城市 City

國家 / 國際 Country / Global

Symbiosis of Rural-Urban Coexistence

Rural – Urban Coexistence 城鄉共生

Ebenezer Howard’s Garden City

花園城市

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A Trial of 4-zero Community 實踐四零社區

• A Zero-energy, Zero-water, Zero-food and Zero-waste Community:

• Yiu and Compos (2013) Sustainable Communities, ISSF 2014, or:

• http://ecyy.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/9/3/12935669/sustainable_building

s_2013.pdf

HKAEE Golden Award 2015

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Farming and Food Landscape

農圃和食境

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Aquaponics 魚菜共生

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Greenery 綠化

Eco Enzyme 環保酵素

Leaves and Branches

Composting 枯葉堆肥

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Sharing Economy 共享經濟

It saved

914 books

and 167 items

In 2014

➢Sharing: Books, Toys, Sports Equipment, Furniture, Baby Stuffs, Musical Instruments, Electrical Appliances

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27 Recyclable Items 循環再用

Producer Responsibility 生產者責任制

Water Saving 節省用水

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Energy Saving 節省用電

Solar Panels 再生能源

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Charging Bikes充電單車

Barter 以物易物

• http://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E5%8D%80/53155/-

%E7%BD%AE%E5%AF%8C%E8%8A%B1%E5%9C%92-

%E6%A4%8D%E6%A8%B9%E7%A8%AE%E5%87%BA%E9%84%B0%E9%87%8C%E6%83%85-

%E5%B0%8F%E5%B1%85%E6%B0%91%E6%90%9E%E5%A2%9F%E5%82%B3%E7%92%B0%E4%BF%9D39

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End

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