Yritystilastojen ja

tiedonlähteiden EU-

haasteita

Heikki Salmi

Tilastokeskus 3.12.2009

Hyvän päätöksen lähtökohdat

• Faktat ensin, sitten päätöksenteko ja

politikointi

• Tiedätkö vai luuletko tietäväsi?

• On myös oltava näkemystietoa

EU: 493 million people – 27

countries

Member states of the European Union

Candidate countries

GDP per inhabitant: the spread

of wealthGDP per inhabitants in Purchasing Power Standards, 2007

Index where the average of the 27 EU-countries is 100

280

144

131 129 127 123 121 118 117 113 113104 102 100

94 89 8779 77 75

67 66 6358 56 53

38 37

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rg

Ire

lan

d

Neth

erl

an

ds

Au

str

ia

De

nm

ark

Belg

ium

Sw

ed

en

Un

ite

d K

ing

do

m

Fin

lan

d

Ge

rma

ny

Fra

nc

e

Ita

ly

Sp

ain

EU

-27

Cyp

rus

Gre

ec

e

Slo

ve

nia

Cze

ch

Re

pu

bli

c

Ma

lta

Po

rtu

ga

l

Es

ton

ia

Hu

ng

ary

Slo

va

kia

Lit

hu

an

ia

La

tvia

Po

lan

d

Ro

ma

nia

Bu

lga

ria

EU-Politiikan painopisteitä 2010

• Economic and social recovery

• Climate change and sustainable Europe

• Putting citizen first

• Europe as a world partner

• Lisbon Treaty and institutional changes

• Next multi-annual financial framework

• Better regulation and transparency

6

Financial crisis - needs for data and analysis

• Better financial stability analysis

Financial soundness indicators, balance-sheet analysis, structured

products, derivatives, leverage, gross border exposures, early warning

indicators etc.

• Better macroeconomic analysis

Identification of bubbles, better understanding of external imbalances

etc.

• Better understanding of the international financial linkages

• Better understanding of the linkages between the financial and real

economy

• Better information of FDI and international investment positions

• Valuation issues in economic statistics (SNA in particular)

Eurostat - action plan & TF on the accounting consequences of …

Source: The Global Financial Crisis: What are We Learning about Policy-Makers’ Data Needs? Tessa van der

Willigen and Pedro Rodriguez, IMF, December 2008

Yritysten ja yrityspolitiikan

haasteita

• Kilpailukyky globaaleilla markkinoilla

• Paremmat sisämarkkinat

• Energia ja ilmaston muutos

• Teknologian kehitys

• Väestön ikääntyminen

• Byrokratia, hallinnolliset kustannukset

• Finanssimarkkinoiden ja talouden kriisi

Yrittäjyyden haasteet

- Europeans show low risk taking

- Stigma of failure

- Too much red tape

- Rapid “entrepreneurial” growth is

relatively rare in Europe

- Too low capacity of innovation

- Access to funds, Venture capital

- Access to new markets

To measure globalisation

- Competitiveness – how to compete better

- Investments – products- services –labour

- International sourcing

- National – EU – Outside EU

- Structural adjustment of enterprises

- SME - entrepreneurship aspect

- Degree of globalisation

The modularisation of the production process

started in the textile industry, Tanska

OPT

Outward Processing Traffic

(1985-1990)

CMT

Cut, Make and Trim

(1990-1995)

SOD

Sourcing from own

Design

(1995-2000)

Based on suppliers

Design (2000-)

Design DK DK DK DK

Logistics DK DK DK Abroad

Procurement DK DK Abroad Abroad

Treatment of materials DK Abroad Abroad Abroad

Cutting DK Abroad Abroad Abroad

Sewing Abroad Abroad Abroad Abroad

Packing Abroad Abroad Abroad Abroad

Quality Control DK Abroad Abroad Abroad

Marketing DK DK DK DK

The Lisbon Policy Goal

Growth and Jobs

Better

regulation

Budgetary programmes

Internal

market

Industrial

policy

SME

policy

Inno-

vation

policy

Key challenges 2005-2008 (National

Reform Programmes)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sustain

abili

ty pub

lic finan

ce

Short-

term

bud

getary

stabi

lity

Nom

inal con

verg

ence

, ado

ptio

n of

eur

o

Exter

nal o

penn

ess

Exter

nal a

ccou

nt d

eficit

R&

D-inn

ovatio

n

Bus

ines

s en

viro

nmen

t/ent

repr

eneu

rshi

p

Sustain

able d

evelop

men

t

Com

petit

ion

Infras

tructur

eIC

T

Efficienc

y of

pub

lic adm

inistra

tion/

serv

ices

Util

isatio

n of

labo

ur

Edu

catio

n an

d sk

ills

Social s

ecur

ity and

coh

esio

n

Reg

iona

l em

ploy

men

t dispa

rities

Nu

mb

er o

f M

S

MACRO-ECONOMIC MICRO-ECONOMIC EMPLOYMENT

-0.14

-0.12

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

EU25-US EU - US gap

21%

20%

18%

6%

-1%

-2%

-2%

-4%

-9%

-11%

-12%

-15%

-23%

-38%

-49%

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

M ed/high-tech manuf. employ.

Community designs

Community trademarks

S&E graduates

EPO patents

M ed/high-tech R&D

Public R&D

ICT expenditures

Triad patents

Broadband penetration

High-tech exports

Business R&D

Early-stage venture capital

Tertiary education

USPTO patents

"2006" "2002-2004"

The innovation gap with the US

• The innovation gap between the US and the EU keeps narrowing, but it is still substantial

• The gap can be largely explained by the US superior performance in:

early-stage venture capital availability

share of population with tertiary education

and number of US patents granted

Innovation drivers

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

TRM T PTROHU EL IT SK CZ PLBGCY LV LUHR DEES AT SI LT EE IE BEFR NL IS US UK NOCH JP DK SE FI

Knowledge creation

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

HR TR SK EE PTRO LVBG EL LT PLM TCY ES HUCZNO SI BEUK IT LU FR DKNL IE IS CH AT DEUS JP FI SE

Innovation & entrepreneurship

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

CYHR JP TR US ES SKROHU PLBG IT M TNO SI EL NL CZ AT LT FR IE PT LV BE UK DECH LU IS EE FI DKSE

Applications

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

JP TR US LV CY LT EL PTHR NOPLBGRO EE ES IT NL IS AT HUBE SI DKFR IE CH SK LU CZ SE UK FI DEM T

Intellectual property

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

ROBG TRHR LT SK LV EL PL EE HUCZ SI PTM TCYNO ES IE IS IT UK FR BEUS JP NL AT DKSE FI LU DECH

Country profiles

ES

FI

SMEs and internationalisation

Very low level of internationalisation of EU SMEs

Only 8% of SMEs export (Year 2007, EU 27)

European SMEs are not raising to the challenge of globalisation.

Less than satisfactory use of the internal market by SMEs.

Challenging needs

• Data by industrial sector

• Productivity

• Knowledge of labor force

• Services

• Investments, intangibles, IPR

• Globalization- global sourcing –delocalisation

• Cluster approach

• Rest of the world, USA, China, India, Japan, Brasil

Sustainable Industrial Policy and data

needs

• Business, environment, energy statistics and

indicators for policy development and monitoring

• Product policy: market share of various labels

and energy efficient appliances

• Eco-industry: value added, innovation,

productivity, employment, SMEs

• Energy Intensive Industries: Emissions by

industrial sector

Mihin tarvitaan?

• Competitiveness analysis and reports

• Sectoral analysis

• For policy relevant indicators, scoreboards

• Basis for legislation proposals

• Basis for other policy initiatives

• Monitoring of the policy results

• Impact assessments (economic, environmental, social)

Deficiencies and problems

• Timeliness

• Time series. Stocks and flows

• Coverage - EU 27 and still mostly by country

• Rest of the world, USA, China, India, Japan, Brasil ….Competitors of Europe – comparable data

• Consistency of different statistics

• Too many missing data

• Confidentiality of statistical data

• Data bases – more user friendly

• Access to individual data

Information sources

• Commission own analysis and studies of policy developers

• Eurostat, OECD, WB, IMF

• Research institutes

• Private and public databases, KLEMS

• Consultants, experts

• Ad hoc surveys, Eurobarometer

Monitoring of global economy

- outside the scope of national statistics

• GEM - Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (London Business School etc)

• WEF: Global Risk Network Report

• WEF/IMD: Global/World Competitiveness Report/Yearbook

• European Commission: Business and Consumer Surveys

• OECD/IMF/World Bank; World/Global Economic Outlook

• Manpower: Global Employment Outlook Survey

• Mercer HR consulting; Cost of Living Survey - worldwide ranking

• PriceWaterhouseCoopers: Global CEO Survey

• OECD: System of Unit Labour Cost Indicator etc.

• World Bank: Doing Business Rankings (regulatory environment)

22

Beyond GDP - Stiglitz commission

• Classical GDP issues

– inside the NA emphasize other indicators than GDP

– improve the empirical measurement of key production activities (services)

– bring out the household perspective (most important for living standard)

– add information about income and wealth distribution

– widen the scope of national accounts

• Quality of life

– conceptual approaches; subjective well-being, notion of capabilities, notion of fair

allocation

• Sustainable development and environment

– “extended wealth” or “stock -based “ approach to sustainability, weak/strong

sustainability

– dashboards, composite indexes, adjusted GDPs, indexes measuring

overconsumption

– limited number of indicators is OK, monodimensional view remains certainly out of

reach

Source: The Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance

and Social Progress. Draft Summary, June 2009

23

European Commission:

Vision of a modernised statistical productive system

• Challenges;

– the financial turmoil, increasing new requirements, need of flexibility, time

constraints etc.

– limited and decreasing resources, call for global statistical vision

– upcoming regulatory framework for financial markets, new rules for company

accounting

• Data warehouse approach (integration of data sets, micro-data linking etc.)

• Horizontal integration (holistic approach, from domains to clusters)

• Vertical integration (processes developed through co-operation with NSIs and

Eurostat)

• Exploiting of synergies and joint structures within the ESS, standardised IT-tools etc.

• Change in the professional paradigm of NSIs; “from data collectors to re-users of data”

• Product harmonisation will be complemented by process harmonisation

• Promotion of common values and the sharing of knowledge throughout the ESS

Source: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the

Council on the production method of EU statistics: a vision for the next decade (August

2009)

Statisticians under pressure

Provide us with more information

• Demand for data in an increasing number of (changing) areas

• Demand for increasingly detailed information

Deliver better quality

• Be more timely, achieve higher accuracy, coherence, comparability …

• Use state-of-the-art methods

Reduce the burden for the respondents

• Reduce the number of (primary) surveys

• Reduce the length of the surveys,

• Use voluntary instead of mandatory surveys

Do all this with less resources

Source: Federal Statistical Office, IV-A Business Register, Roland Sturm