| 2012 3 12 ( ) 2 | | , , ,

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| | 2012

14:00 ( )14:05 1

14:20 2 3 10

14:35

15:30 15:50

1 / 5 2 3 10 / 19 1

. / 39

2 / 40 3 / 49 4 2012 / 57 5 / 62

5

1

/

1.

2008 6 11 : - (LTV) 60% 70% - 1 50% , 2 - 1 2 1 >2 - 1 10 5 , 85 149

2008 8 21 : - : 3 1 6 , 2 1 , , , 2 15 18 - , 70~75%

6 - : 120% - 2 6000 , 2 3000 - 10 7 ( 3~7 , 1~5 )

- 30 - 1 2 - 3 5 - (300 100 ) 1

2008 9 1 : - 1 1 6 9 (

6 9 ) - 1 : 3 3 , 3 2

- : 10 80% - - 9~36% 6~33%

2008 9 19 :

- 2018 500 ( 150 ) - (1-2 , )

- 100 -

2008 9 23 :

7

- 9 - 1-3% 0.5-1%

2008 10 21 :

- 1 2 1 2 - - , , 3 , 3 , 2 - (A-D )

2008 11 3 : - 3 - 85 60% - (300%) - 1 2 , 2 - 1 1 , 1

2009 2 12 :

- 5 , 5 50% - ( )

8 - , 1~5

2009 3 16 : - : 2 (6-35%) 2010 6-33%

2009 8 27 :

- 2012 32 - 5~6 , 2 - 2 2000 -

2009 7 ~10 : LTV, DTI - (LTV) 60% 50%

- DTI 2

2010 3 18 : - 1 -

2010 4 23 :

9

- 5000 3 , 2 - 5000 - , 1 (P-CBO) - (LH) 1000 - 3 6 85 2 ( 5.2%)

2010 8 29 : - DTI -> 1 1 9

DTI , 3 - , 2 - 2 , 1 - 4900 5600 - - 80% 50% , - (25%) - 3 P-CBO CLO

- -

2011 1 13 : ( ) - 13 ( 1300 , / 2 6 , LH 2500 )

10

- ( , , ( 2%)) - 5 7000 6 8000 , 6 - - 5

2011 2 11 : - 6000 8000 ,

4.5% 4.0% - 8000 1 - 5 8000 7 - , - , 30%

50% - 50% , 5 50% - 17% 20%

2011 3 22 : - 8.29 DTI 3 , 1 DTI

, , DTI - - 50% -

11

2011 5 1 : - PF - PF 5000 1 5000 - PFV

- 2012 - (5 ) - 1 (9 ) 2 - 2 ( 18 )

-

2011 6 30 : - 1~5 1~3 - (2011 12.7 2 ) -

2011 8 18 : - 3 1 - ( 3 3% 3-4 10%, 30% ) - -

- LH 2 - - 5.2% 4.7% - 3000 5000

12

- ( ) 5000 6000 , ( ) 6 8

2011 12 7 : - 3 ( , DTI, LTV, 10% ) - - 2 - , 1~2 - - PF , 2012 2 PF - (300 100 ) 2 - 2012 , 4.7 4.2% - 2000 3000 - 5 ( 2%) 2012

2.

- : , 2 , LTV -> :

2008 12 7 - ( ) ,

13

- ( , , 3 ) - (GDP 18% ) - , ( )

- -> ( )

- 2018 500 , 50

, 150 100

: - : 2008 371,285

2011 549,594 1.5 , () - (?): 2011 59 23.7% , 55 40 , 24% - , : 4

13.9%( 4.9%) -> , .

14

* :

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2010(%)

555,792 371,285 381,787 386,542 549,594 42.2

476,462 263,153 297,183 276,989 356,762 28.8

79,330 108,132 86,604 109,553 192,832 76.0

:

- 2008 8.21

( , , , 2 , 170-230% -> 300% , , ) - -> ( )

- 9 , 6 ->9 - 1 1 6 ->9 , 1

- DTI - : 1-5 -> 1-3 - 3 - , 1 (9 ) 2 - , ,

15

, , / -> ->

- MB ( ) : 2018 150

- 80 , 70 -> 80 20 5-10

- 25% - 2009 8.27 2012

12 32 -> 21 19 9 ->

- : 07 133.120 -> 08 107,590 -> 09 77,028 -> 10

14,443 =>

- 2011 1.13 ( ) 13

-> - : 3 -> 1 , , , , , / -> - - ,

16

- MB 3 21 (7 ) , 3 3.88% 3

13.93% (* 4 36.20% ) ->

- : , 2011 2.11 (6

->8 , 4.5%->4.0%), (8 ->1 ), (5 8 ->7 )

- 2011 250% , 2,500 - / ->

3.

- ->

( ) - : - ( , , ) ( , , )

17

- ( , ?)

- : , , - : , ,

PF , , - : , ( ) , - : , DTI/LTV , , - : , , , , ( , , , ), - : ( , ) ( ), , ( ) - : ( , , , ), , - : , , , ,

- LH ( ) ( ) ( )

18

2

3 10

/

< 3 > 1. 2. , 3.

< 10 > 1. 2. 3. , 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. , 9. , 10.

19

I. 3

1.

1)

1970 . . 1989 . 1 5 1960 , 1970 , 1 5 .

2009 1,311,369 10 5

1) . . 131 1369 .

(1445 4000 ) 9.1% . 25 5731 29.2% .

4.8% 69 1225 .

1) , 5 5 , , .

20

2)

2018 12% . 5 10 .

< -1> ( ) ('09 , : / : )

50

10 5

1,311,369 190,077 96,124 295,731 62,575 13,113 49,462 186,481 25,923 160,558 446,684 33,697

224,788 45,828 69,953 19,021 0 0 0 214 214 0 81,888 7,884 72,682 26,171 1,963 9,493 434 434 0 2,217 344 1,873 32,304 100

45,995 18,744 2,628 11,628 520 520 0 2,005 1,105 900 10,421 49

47,467 8,354 1,433 16,205 0 0 0 3,135 3,135 0 17,333 1,007

71,971 13,920 1,011 17,560 244 244 0 13,773 2,695 11,078 25,432 31

40,508 12,437 1,584 8,519 1,063 123 940 5,044 1,167 3,877 11,861 0

18,886 2,362 888 5,797 422 156 266 1,175 0 1,175 8,242 0

253,516 19,664 5,640 101,550 11,094 4,497 6,597 29,028 11,495 17,533 83,750 2,790

67,051 4,361 1,188 12,667 4,418 728 3,690 16,633 860 15,773 19,276 8,508

57,627 6,139 2,071 15,239 3,790 353 3,437 10,541 228 10,313 17,924 1,923

93,604 4,668 1,405 14,885 4,518 742 3,776 16,494 658 15,836 48,335 3,299

73,359 9,315 2,099 17,574 7,558 240 7,318 11,302 1,061 10,241 24,221 1,290

97,156 5,001 476 10,451 9,573 3,158 6,415 46,376 734 45,642 21,786 3,493

63,762 7,244 1,720 12,741 6,027 593 5,434 10,295 1,357 8,938 25,560 175

68,906 4,773 1,375 18,498 11,192 1,325 9,867 16,359 870 15,489 13,561 3,148

14,091 1,096 690 3,903 1,722 0 1,722 1,890 0 1,890 4,790 0 * 50 : , ,

* : , , (60 ) * 10 : ( + (60~85 ) )

* 5 : + * : + + * : + + +

21

, 2018 150 . 70 80 . 10 . , 100 40 , .

, . , .

3)

. 2018 15%(156 , 69 ) , ( ) . , , ( , ) .

22

2. ,

1)

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2)

. , ,

23

, . ,

. 50% . . , , .

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1. , ( ) 2. (10% ) 3. 4.

1. 2. (1~2 ) 3. ( 110%) 4. ( )

.(2011. 4. 1)

3)

. ( - 2 4 , 6 ) . , , 3 20% , .

24

. 2) .

. , ( ) . , , 6% .

3. 1)

7 2004 7 5.7 , 1998 2.3 ( -1 ) . , 2008 ( -2 ).

2) ( ) .

25

< -1>

2009 2 3, 4 , ( ) .

< -2> ( )

.

26

(2012. 1) . , , . . , , . , . 2011 12 . . ( ) . .

2)

( ) . . , . 50% . .

27

, . ( ) .

: )

,

, . . , 3~4 , , . ( )

. ( 50%) ( ) 20% , , , 50% .

.

, .

28

II. 10

1.

1)

, 50 , , , ,.

.

.

2)

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1 , 5 , 10 , ( ) ( )

29

2.

1)

, . , . ( , , ) .

2)

( )

2018 15%(156 )

30

3. ,

1)

. , , , . . . .

2)

( )

, ( , , ) ( ) ( , )

31

4. 1)

, . . ( ) . . . , , . , . . . . , . . ( ) . 1976 (WAP) 650 , .

(DOE) 2007 7 , 1 2.7 , 1.8 . (WAP) ,

2009 25~35% .

32

-

[ ]

- ( )

7 . . 12 . . .

20 , 12 8 . . 4 . 20

4 20 . .

. . . . . . . . . . ( ) .

33

2) ( )

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, . 2011 12 . . ( ) . .

2)

34

: ) , , , , ( )

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1)

. ( ) ( ) .

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35

7.

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77 7 , .

. . , . , .

2)

36

8. ,

1)

DTI . .

2011 , .

2)

DTI

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1)

, 20~30% . 2007 , , . . ,

37

1998 30 . , , . .

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38

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.

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2. .

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39

2

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.

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40

10 * 15 = 150 (150 )

8~12

100 100 50%( ) 3.5

7 ( 7% ) 700 ( 58 )**

30 (30 )

1.5 ( 5%, 3 5 5% )

50% (7 5)

* 280 * 1 = 280 ** 2.5% 3.8 ( ) ** 50%

2013 2018 6 15% 15 20% , .

2009 1707.1 .4.0% .

2. , ,

2-1. 6 6 ( )

2-2.

2-3. .

41

.

* ( )

(1) - 5% (

10% ) . - 110% - (2)

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(3) - ,

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- (5)

- , ,

2-4. .

42

. .

2-5. ,

3.

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4. , 25%~30%

- 1~2 ( ). . - , .

5.

- .

43

* - 7% 7,849 . - CO2 1.4% , (17.8) , 201 2 4,120 (10 , 2,412 ) 4,293.

< >

( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

6.

6-1. - - - , ,

6-2. - 2011 SH 30%

.

44

. -

- LH /

.

1. - ( )-

2. 1 2 - (LTV) (DTI) - 1 2 , ( 2 )

- -

DTI DTI . 1 1 DTI . 1 1

45

10 . DTI , . 2 , , . .

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* 1991 / .

- . -> -> ( . )

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5.

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.

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47

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48

3

/ ,

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49

2. 3

- . - 2018 15% 156 . 2010-2018 8 20 . 10 2 8 (2009-2018 80 ) 2.5 . ,

- 2018 10%

50

: < >

2010 2014 2018 2028

4% 7% 10% 15%

( )* 17,574 17,855 18,136 18,839

( ) 1,103** 1,250 1,814 2,826

( , ) 115 115 115 90

70 50 30 30 30 50 70 50

10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5

* 5 2% ( 0.4% ) ** 2010

: (2011), . , .

, - : (3 ( , ), 4 ( ), 6 ( )) - ( ) 1 2,4,6 - : . . . ( ) . - :

51

- 6% : 10% . 15%

- : - : - : - : - : . - : . - : 50% . - :

3. 10

- , - , -

52

. , ,

- -

- , , , , - , , . ,

- WAP , , -

- , -

53

- , - , , - , ,

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54

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4.

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= [ + ( + ) + - ] /

55

- -

< 3>

: (2011), . , .

- : , , , , - : -

2012 2012

2012 2018 20% 5%

- 2028 15% 2013 2015 2014 2018 5%

56

4

2012

/

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1.

- . .

57

2.

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58

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59

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60

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9.

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61

5

/ ,

1.

.

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4) 2010 , , 2011, 53 5) 2010 6.42%

, 27.88% .

62

. , , , .

.

. 70-80% .

, . 2010 2,114 500 , , 100 . ,.

63

.

2007 17 8 2008 , 25 . 2008

25 18 (72%) , 2009 21 24.5 (116%) , 2010 22 20 (91%) , 2011 24

21 (88%) , 2011 12 455 306 67% .

, 90% , 26.6%(2011. 6. ) . 2009 ~2011 (

1,051 ) 51.1% , 2011 2012

(34.8%) . 2011 85% 2010 89% 4% 6), , .

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