1 7 1931 56- 28 .
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9 8 1
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.
20 87 .
.
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16/03/1393:04/12/1393:
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mailto:[email protected]
139417 66.
(8003) .
.
( 8002) . .
.
.
1 .
.
(. 1927 )
( 8011) . .
. . 1
67...
. .
. .
. -
.
1
.
( 8005) . .
- (8018) . . Arena 8
( 8019)
1. Desireability
2. Discrete-Event Simulation
139417 68 . -
(8019)
. ( 8011) . Arena
.
SIMAN .
. ( 1939)
.
.
.
.
Enterprise Dynamics -
(ED) - -
69...
.
.
1
.
. (. 1376 ) - 1 .
. . . 8 .
9
. .
1. Desireability Function
2. Goodness of fit
3. Validation
139417 70
-.1
.
. . .
71...
. (. 1926 )
. :
. .
. . .
8 . .
EDTM
Incontrol . -
36 .
139417 72
15
61
55 91
78
82
59
87
50
1
16
8
26
80
20
90
9
70 17
69
10
1
50
.2
-1 80 . 1
. (+1) 90 0 : 1
Normal (,), Lognormal ( ,),Weibull (Shape, Scale), Exponential (), Uniform
(a ,b) . 8 25 . . 8000
: .1
.8
73...
.
. . 0:
. 1 : .
. Minitab
( 31/29) =595/0p-value .
.1
+(1)(0)(-1)
78 66 10
1
80 16 2
6 10 16 8 2 16 90 9 18 86 10 1 (Lognormal (20/7, 14) Lognormal (16/5, 11) Lognormal (14/5, 9/7 (Lognormal (30, 3
Normal (168/7, 51/7)
Lognormal (24, 2/4)
Normal (135, 41)
Lognormal (20/3, 2)
Normal (118, 36) (Normal (173, 77/7
Exponential (18)
Normal (138/5, 62/2)
Exponential (14/4) Normal (121, 54/4)
Exponential (12/6) 2 Normal (153, 62/4)
Lognormal (26, 17/5)
Normal (122/4, 49/8)
Lognormal (20/6, 14) Normal (107, 43/7)
Lognormal (18, 12/3) (Lognormal (30, 19/5) Lognormal (24, 15/6) Lognormal (21, 13/7 (Lognormal (294,80
Exponential (42)
Lognormal (235,64)
Exponential (33/6) Lognormal (211/5,56)
Exponential (29/4) (Weibull (1/9, 52
Weibull (2/2,400/6)
Weibull (1/9, 41/6)
Weibull (2/2, 320/5) Weibull (1/9, 36/4)
Weibull (2/2, 280/4) 3 Uniform (24, 56)
Uniform (8, 16)
Lognormal (482,198)
Uniform (12, 28)
Uniform (4, 8)
Lognormal (241, 99)
-
139417 74().2
1 1 2 8
.
. 89
.
PurequadraticSS/ ( 8001) 432 387 /EMS 36 35 F /0 11 ) 89 . , , ) /F 0 025 1 5 10 ) . 01 . , , )F F0 0 025 1 5
/0 025 .
(CCD) 1 . Minitab
-1+ 1 89 . . .
. 9 . .
1. Response Surface Method (RSM)
75...
.3
1 1 1 1 62/05 315 81 0 0 0 71/67 1041/7 8 -1 -1 -1 85/21 1987 88 0 0 0 74/97 1067 9 0 0 0 73/51 1059 89 -1 1 1 75/29 1198 1 0 0 0 72/62 1068 81 1 1 -1 65/87 325/2 6 -1 -1 1 83/86 1234 86 1 -1 -1 72/58 765 5 0 0 0 76/74 1048 85 0 0 1 65/65 765 7 0 -1 0 84/87 1189 87 1 0 0 67/86 422 2 0 1 0 69/84 999 82 0 0 1 68/4 699 3 0 1 0 70/39 897 83 0 0 0 76/13 1052/6 10 0 0 0 75/63 1084/5 90 0 0 0 71/95 1077/5 11 0 0 0 75/94 1071/4 91 1 1 -1 68/68 454 18 0 0 -1 77/12 1089 98 -1 1 -1 73/67 1618/8 19 0 0 0 77/17 1071/7 99 -1 1 1 74/83 1005 11 0 -1 0 83/15 1200 91 1 1 1 64/53 318 16 -1 1 -1 76/94 1765 96 -1 0 0 79/26 1597 15 -1 -1 1 86/75 1298 95 0 0 -1 76/39 1051 17 -1 -1 -1 85/72 1998 97 1 0 0 69/5 399 12 1 -1 1 76/87 323/4 92 0 0 0 74/33 1056/2 13 -1 0 0 77/4 1595 93 1 -1 -1 77/63 895 80 0 0 0 73/59 1084/8 10 1 -1 1 72/06 319/2
) 1 (. .
. R . 2 99/75 82/21 31/27
21 . 1 . adjR pre 2 dR . 2P 1 Value 0 .
139417 76(1) / / / / / y x x x x x 2 21 1 2 3 2 374 27 5 07 5 33 1 48 3 18 2
.4
P 0
0 /000 71/39 026/619 1 02/619 0 /000 29/109 826/652 1 82/652
002/0 35/7 678/19 1 67/19 701/0 16/0 209/0 1 2/0 *
009/0 19/10 163/66 1 15/66 * 061/0 01/1 396/81 1 31/81 * 757/0 03/0 13/0 1 13/0 *
971/0 21/0 168/1 1 16/1 * 153/0 61/0 311/8 1 31/8 *
179/6 90 8/151 39 7/1357
1
. 8 .
.(8001 )
77...
.2.1
-9 . ( )
+ 1 -1 + 1 + 1 1 . -1 +1 + 1 ) (
. 26
-9 . . ( )
+ 1 + 1 -1 . -1 ) ( ( -1 )
+ 1 + 1 -9.
) + 1 -1 . ( ) ( + 1+ 1 -1
1. Contour Plot
139417 78 -1 . -1
) ( + 1 + 1
.
.3
.4
70
75
80
-1-10
-1
80
85
-11
0
1
65
70
75
-1-10
75
80
-11
0
1
70
75
80
-1-10
-1
80
85
-11
0
1
)(
)(
()
79...
. 6
.
. R /2 98 87/32 27%predR . 2 96%
8 . . P Value 0 .
(8) / / / / / /
y x x x
x x x x x x
2 1 2 32 22 3 1 3 2 3
1044 32 538 115 68 223 6758 25 111 91 88 71 46
.5
0 P
000/0 17/1918 6722220 1 6722220 000/0 07/58 857597 1 857597
000/0 01/898 1000656 1 1000656 790/0 18/0 688 1 688 *
015/0 99/1 12556 1 12556 * 000/0 00/15 52325 1 52325 * 221/0 08/0 33 1 33 *
000/0 99/91 196039 1 196039 * 000/0 36/12 21710 1 21710 *
1918 90 183951 39 7491658
.
+ 1 -1 + 1 .
139417 80 . + 1
.
.
