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201620162017

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2016

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% 2016 2016 2.4%3.1% 2015 2008 2016 1. 20162015 2. ( )IMF20161GI1*GI1. IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 4, 2016 2. IHS Global Insight Inc., World Overview, Dec. 15, 2016 IMFGlobal Insight 20152016 20152016Q1Q2Q3Q43.23.1 (3.4)2.72.4 (2.8)2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 *2.11.6 (2.1)2.11.6 (2.1)1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.61.6 (2.6)2.61.6 (2.7)1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.01.7 (1.7)2.01.7 (1.7)1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 0.60.5 (1.0)0.61.0 (1.0)0.3 0.9 1.0 1.7 *4.04.2 (4.3)3.93.8 (4.0)3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 6.96.6 (6.3)6.96.7 (6.3)6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7

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2016CEIC2015 20162016 (Fed) Fed 12 2017 3 2016

#2016

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11 2016 1.35% 8 1.22% 2015 0.72% 1.63 0.29

%YoY1. YoY2. ( ) 2016 8 20161125saar 2015 2016 GDP1.35 (1.22)1.35 1.94 (1.59)1.01 2.43 (1.91)0.34 1.92 (1.31)0.40 1.88 (1.15)0.321.54 (1.45 )0.99- 2.47 (1.95 ) 1.27

2016 1.63 -0.29

#2016 1 11 3.93% 0.162016 11 3.87% 0.08 0.04 3.84% 0.06 2016 1 10 37,330 1-10 0%2015 2016

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2016 11 CPI 2016126+ 1.97%2016 1 11 CPI 1.36% 5.31%2016 11 CPI 1.97% CPI 0.84% 6.42% 37.53% 9.56%5030 0.37% 9.67% 9.65%2015 2016 %

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#2017

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OECDGlobal Insight2016 20172016 20172.9 3.32.42.8*1.7 2.01.61.9 1.52.31.62.3 1.7 1.61.71.4 0.8 1.01.01.0**4.0 4.53.84.4 6.7 6.46.76.4

% (1/3)

1. 20162017 2. *OECDOECD**OECDOECD1. OECD, OECD Economic Outlook, Nov. 28, 2016 2. IHS Global Insight Inc., World Overview, Dec. 15, 2016 2017

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IHS GI 12 2017 2.3%Fed 2017 3 2016 IHS GI 12 2017 1.0%(2/3)

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2017 2017 6.2% 6.5% (3/3)

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CIP 2015 2016 / 2016 11 OPEC 12 56 18 (EIA) (Brent) 2017 2016 43.46 51.66 (IEA) OPEC 2017 OPEC 2014201520162017WTI93.1748.6743.0750.66Brent98.8952.3243.4651.66

EIA, Short-term Energy Outlook, Dec. 6, 2016EIA/

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1.74 (1.75)0.920.06 (0.10)0.011.88 (1.40)0.39 2.00 (1.51)0.34 1.19 (0.87)0.031.73 (1.04)0.02-0.103.83 (3.08)2.39 3.85 (2.85)1.94

1.87%(1.88%)2017 ( 1.42 )( 0.45 ) ( ) 2016 8 20161125

20141812-3.21,7793320151,884 4.0 1,7919320161,953 3.7 1,8121412017*2,026 3.7 1,869157

201520162017 2017 1.87% 2016 1.35%(1/4)

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%f 20161125(3.83%)(1.54%)(2/4)%f 20161125(4.95%)(-2.85%)IMF 2017 3.83%

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f 20161125

%(1.94%)(1.74%)(3/4)f 20161125 %2016 (f)1.92 1.88 2.36 1.35 2017 (f)1.88 2.00 1.19 1.73 Q1(f)2.80 2.733.422.50Q2(f)2.422.263.811.82Q3(f)1.030.941.162.47Q4(f)1.432.19-1.611.06

2017 1.88% 2017 1.74%

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2017 1.5%~2.0% 2016 0.9%~1.37%[ ]( )20162017[2016.11.25]1.35 (1.22)1.87 (1.88)[2016.12.28]1.37 (1.1)1.8 (1.8) [2016.12.26] (0.8)1.5 (1.2) [2016.12.22]1.23 (0.52)1.68 [2016.12.20]1.29 (1.03)1.73 (1.81) [2016.12.15]1.26 (0.92)1.74 [2016.11.10]1.17 (0.77)1.65Global Insight [2016.12.15]1.2 (1.2)1.7 (1.7)ADB [2016.12.13]1.2 (0.9)1.6 (1.5)IMF [2016.10.4]1.0 (1.5)1.7 (2.2) [2016.12.15]1.1 (0.7)1.6 (1.4) [2016.12.12]0.92.0 [2016.12.12]1.01.5~2.0

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2017 (1/4)

#2017 (2/4)GDPGDP%%2017

#2017 2017 (3/4)2017IHS Conflict Monitor, Dec. 22, 2016 3/1534/235/7912/10

#IMFEIU 201611IMF

2017 (4/4)

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2016 2016 1.35% 2015 0.72% 2017 1.87% 2016

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