STRATEGIC PLANNING IN A TURBULENT
ENVIRONMENT : EVIDENCE FROM THE OIL MAJORS
Robert M. Grant
Prepared for Strategic
Mangement
Business Administration
FISIP UI, December 5, 2011
Wednesday, November 24, 1892 Est. 1869 Price 6d
BACKGROUND Sejak awal 1980-an,perencanaan strategis
merupakan pendekatan yang sistematis
secara formal yang dibawa oleh para sarjana
manajemen.
Untuk menyelidiki apakah dan bagaimana
praktek-praktek perencanaan strategis
perusahaan telah disesuaikan dengan dunia
perubahan yang cepat dan tak terduga
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ILLUSTRATED WEEKLY NEWSPAPER
( Mintzberg, 1994b: 110 )
WINTER Template
PLANNING AND
ENVIRONMENTAL
TURBULENCE:
THEORY AND
EVIDENCE
1. Scenario planning
2. Strategic intent and the role of
vision
3. Strategic innovation
4. Complexity and self
organization
The Literature
Perubahan di dalam lingkungan bisnis diperkuat terhadap
mewujudkan perencanaan strategis.
CHALLENGE
SOLLUTION
Scenario planning
Strategic intent and the role of vision
Strategic innovation
Complexity and self organization
Empirical evidence
“Bukti empiris menunjuk ke
koeksistensi formal dan
informal proses perencanaan
strategis”
Research Question
and
research method
Research Question and research method
Approach
Research Site
Research Questions
Method
Data Collection
THE MAIN
FEATURES OF
STRATEGIC PLANNING
AMONG THE OIL COMPANY
THE MAIN FEATURES OF STRATEGIC
PLANNING
AMONG THE OIL COMPANY
The role and organization of coorporate planning
staffs
Strategic planning cycle
Differences between the companies
THE ROLE AND ORGANIZATION OF
COORPORATE PLANNING STAFFS
PROVIDING TECHNICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT
FOSTERING MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE COMMUNICATION
PREPARING INVESTIGATION OF BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
INTERNAL CONTROL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COMPANIES
ABSTRACT
The Planning Heritage of ‘Big Oil’
Forces for Changes
The Changing Foundations of Strategic Planning
Shifting Strategic Planning Responsibilities
Growing Informality of the Planning Process
The Content of Strategic Plans
1960-an
Koordinasi dan kontrol perusahaan semakin sulit
Sebagian besar oil majors mengembangkan departemen perencanaan perusahaan
Tugas departemen perencanaan
Meramalkan tren pasar energi dan ekonomi.
1970-an Diversifikasi memperluas peran departemen
perencanaan perusahaan
1980-an Departemen terlibat peramalan permintaan,
penawaran, harga, profits margin
Departemen perencana
perusahaan Perusahaan
Divisi Manajemen
Types and duration of plans & Strategic planning goals
Amoco BP
• 5 thn rencana strategis. • 1 thn rencana kinerja
(target keuangan & anggaran).
• Meningkatkan kualitas pengambilan keputusan.
• Koordinasi yg efektif antar bisnis.
• Penekanan pada pengembalian shareholders
• Kontrak kinerja antar bisnis & perusahaan.
• Mengembangkan kompetensi.
Rencana strategis 5 thn diformulasikan untuk seluruh perusahaan
Elf Aquitaine ENI
Rencana strategis dirumuskan oleh masing-masing unit bisnis, divisi,
perusahaan (5-10 thn)
Kontrol perusahaan dari divisi dan meningkatkan
kinerja perusahaan.
Kontrol perusahaan atas strategi operasi dan untuk
efisiensi biaya perusahaan.
4 thn rencana strategis untuk tiap unit bisnis dan
sektor.
Exxon Mobil
Menetapkan target dan koordinasi strategi divisi
Meningkatkan kinerja melalui target kuantitatif.
• Rencana strategis (hulu 14 thn, hilir dan kimia 4-5 thn).
• 2 thn prakiraan keuangan.
Rencana strategis 5 thn
Shell Texaco
Meningkatkan kualitas strategi perusahaan
operasi dan koordinasi lintas sektor dan wilayah.
Perencanaan strategis sebagai mekanisme untuk mendapat pengetahuan
dan mengendalikan keuntungan pemegang
saham.
• 15-20 thn berdasarkan skenario
• 5 thn rencana strategis kuantitatif
• 1 tahun (rencana taktis anggaran dan target kinerja).
• Rencana strategis 20 thn dari proses perencanaan skenario.
• 5-10 thn rencana bisnis yang diformulasikan untuk tiap sektor, negara, wilayah.
1986 Harga minyak jatuh dan persaingan meningkat
Transformasi
Strategi perusahaan, struktur, proses manajemen, dan sistem
perencanaan perusahaan
Forces for Changes
The Changing Foundations of Strategic Planning
1980-an Harga minyak mentah menurun drastis
1992 Harga minyak $20 per barel
John Browne
“Realitas dan pola siklus ekonomi saat ini dan dari itu ditetapkan beberaoa pedoman bagi diri sendiri bagaimana Anda bisa menilai kinerja Anda sendiri.”
1980-an & 1990-an
Perusahaan mengurangi peramalan dan staf ekonom
Mendasarkan seluruh proses perencanaan strategis berdasarkan beberapa analisis skenario
Memberi dasar perkiraan finansial dan tarket kerja
Shell
Harga Referensi
SHIFTING STRATEGIC RESPONSIBILITIES
FROM CORPORATE MANAGERS TO BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
FROM STAFF TO LINE MANAGERS
Peran staff perencanaan
Ukuran departemen perencanaan
Peran manajer divisi
Tanggung jawab
eksekutif
The Content of Strategic Planning
A shift from detailed planning to strategic direction
Increased emphasis on performance planning
The Role of
Strategic Planning
The Role of Strategic Planning
Strategic planning as a context for strategic decision making
03 Strategic planning as a context for strategic decision making
• Influencing the methodologies and techniques of strategic planning.
• Providing channels and forums for communication and knowledge sharing.
Example : Exxon & Shell
04 Strategic planning as a mechanism for coordination
• In general, the more decentralized was strategic decision making, the greater the emphasis on strategic planning as a coordinating device.
Example : Shell & Amoco
05 Strategic planning as a mechanism for control • Strategic planning's function as a control system
had shifted from one based upon strategy content to one based upon strategy outcomes
Example: BP
Discussion
Implications for Management Complexity
Implications for the Theory of The
Multidivisional Corporation
“Bottom – Up
Strategy” “Up- Down
Strategy”
The transfer of strategic planning responsibilities from
staff planners to line managers
Providing a bridge between the opposing
views of strategy as a design and strategy as process campsnto browser
Implications for the Theory of The Multidivisional Corporation
business strategy corporate strategy
Conclusion
Strategic Planning practice have Changed
The Study Pointed to the Limited impact of strategic planning processes upon the quality
of strategic planning process
The Study has Implications for the Study of Strategic Management
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