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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203
BNG CN I K TON
CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007TNG CNG TI SN 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,811
1,082,161,908,830 1,049,679,548,824
46,804,964,758 43,612,980,38446,804,964,758 43,612,980,384
656,249,999 0660,190,599
-3,940,600851,401,405,814 895,800,089,02290,055,181,917 92,755,324,639
679,122,695,871 775,170,808,343
82,447,773,183 27,873,956,040-224,245,157
159,487,170,095 94,074,085,476162,321,635,138 94,074,085,476
-2,834,465,04323,812,118,164 16,192,393,942
1,912,944,5302,107,443,350 11,251,741,923
245,804,007
19,545,926,277 4,940,652,019949,145,981,861 770,182,837,98721,759,091,059 143,902,816,036
143,902,816,036
21,759,091,059
795,497,025,061 209,478,923,652518,877,927,103 33,119,960,666617,681,520,768 63,239,372,914-98,803,593,665 -30,119,412,248
0 0
32,052,653,615 034,260,971,787 423,836,320-2,208,318,172 -423,836,320
244,566,444,343 176,358,962,986
0 0
Ti sn ngn hn
Tin v cc khon tng ng tinTinCc khon tng ng tin
Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hnu t ngn hnD phng gim gi u t ngn hn
Cc khon phi thu ngn hnPhi thu khch hngTr trc cho ngi bnPhi thu ni b ngn hn
Phi thu theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dngCc khon phi thu khcD phng phi thu ngn hn kh i
Hng tn khoHng tn khoD phng gim gi hng tn kho
Ti sn ngn hn khcChi ph tr trc ngn hnThu GTGT c khu trThu v cc khon khc phi thu Nh nc
Ti sn ngn hn khcTi sn di hnCc khon phi thu di hn
Phi thu di hn ca khch hngVn kinh doanh n v trc thucPhi thu di hn ni bPhi thu di hn khcD phng phi thu di hn kh i
Ti sn c nhTi sn c nh hu hnh
Nguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k
Ti sn c nh thu ti chnhNguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k
Ti sn c nh v hnhNguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k
Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang
Bt ng sn u t
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91,444,850,573 409,005,355,617278,013,135,990
64,631,491,155 138,166,729,58826,921,999,997
-108,640,579 -7,174,509,96140,445,015,168 7,795,742,682
39,658,274,227 6,999,514,904
786,740,941 796,227,778
T NG CNG NGU N V N 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,8111,647,682,134,637 1,447,571,057,515
675,898,544,090 718,504,335,221360,882,611,437 534,616,340,72891,094,811,556 56,690,077,80769,178,223,288 25,658,031,989
2,814,496,028 1,621,309,29512,309,156,901 1,586,923,30693,596,045,292 19,413,462,537
44,070,724,362 77,553,186,1381,952,475,226 1,365,003,421
971,783,590,547 729,066,722,294
971,168,377,893 728,978,298,936
615,212,654 88,423,358
317,306,620,174 372,291,329,296311,141,659,538 369,537,879,539319,999,999,968 319,999,999,968
2,849,765,610 2,725,000,000327,902,789
-21,192,324,984 -17,943,039,998
11,290,664,190 3,002,940,9655,761,969,499 1,040,947,6835,311,734,896 1,961,993,282
216,959,795-2,134,348,035 61,752,978,604
Nguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k
Cc khon u t ti chnh di hnu t vo cng ty conu t vo cng ty lin kt, lin doanhu t di hn khcD phng gim gi u t ti chnh di hn
Ti sn di hn khc
Chi ph tr trc di hnTi sn thu thu nhp hon liTi sn di hn khc
Li th thng mi
N phi trN ngn hn
Vay v n ngn hnPhi tr ngi bnNgi mua tr tin trc
Thu v cc khon phi np Nh ncPhi tr ngi lao ngChi ph phi trPhi tr ni bPhi tr theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dngCc khon phi tr, phi np ngn hn khcD phng phi tr ngn hn
N di hnPhi tr di hn ngi bnPhi tr di hn ni b
Phi tr di hn khcVay v n di hnThu thu nhp hon li phi trD phng tr cp mt vic lmD phng phi tr di hn
Vn ch s huVn ch s hu
Vn u t ca ch s huThng d vn c phnVn khc ca ch s hu
C phiu quC phiu u iChnh lch nh gi li ti snChnh lch t gi hi oiCc Qu
Qu u t pht trinQu d phng ti chnhQu khc thuc vn ch s hu
Li nhun sau thu cha phn phiNgun vn u t XDCB
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6,164,960,636 2,753,449,7576,164,960,636 2,753,449,757
66,319,135,880
Ngun kinh ph v qu khcQu khen thng, phc liNgun kinh phNgun kinh ph hnh thnh TSC
Vn c ng thiu sCC CH TIU NGOI BNGTi sn thu ngoiVt t, hng ha nhn gi h, nhn gia cng
Hng ha nhn bn h, nhn k gi, k ccN kh i x lNgoi t cc loiD ton chi s nghip d n
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n v tnh : VN
Nm 2006932,831,682,909470,275,026,930
62,512,894,57262,512,894,572
0
238,967,055,659141,929,118,167
85,987,920,370
11,098,354,661-48,337,539
147,220,462,770147,220,462,770
21,574,613,9293,930,623,1035,762,261,399
2,834,635
11,878,894,792462,556,655,979
21,523,320,81021,523,320,810
361,980,497,456191,972,153,365302,336,768,265
-110,364,614,9000
23,789,461,32925,317,539,937-1,528,078,608
146,218,882,762
0
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63,914,671,389
61,210,571,3902,704,099,999
15,138,166,324
14,873,164,823
265,001,501
932,831,682,909729,575,411,138475,707,916,309270,474,143,255
71,220,131,74132,595,161,285
4,750,402,25916,678,079,68644,978,388,397
21,616,697,50413,394,912,182
253,867,494,829
252,180,079,873
390,704,4421,296,710,514
177,563,793,675174,339,904,525149,999,999,985
143,522,066
-142,958,1271,608,493,0721,198,728,455
318,776,99590,987,622
22,730,847,529
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3,223,889,1503,223,889,150
25,692,478,096
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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203
BO CO KT QU KINH DOANHn v tnh : VN
CH TIU NM 2008 NM 2007 NM 2006
Tng doanh thu hot ng kinh doanh 369,266,034,140 366,102,075,514 710,757,779,071
Cc khon gim tr doanh thu 354,124,064 112,708,943Doanh thu thun 368,911,910,076 366,102,075,514 710,645,070,128Gi vn hng bn 317,288,851,824 313,890,602,487 617,682,232,680Li nhun gp 51,623,058,252 52,211,473,027 92,962,837,448Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 28,420,082,450 22,262,142,415 4,893,817,909Chi ph ti chnh 80,560,893,309 26,769,974,808 30,045,393,321
Trong : Chi ph li vay 78,987,148,450 18,623,534,390 29,402,599,228Chi ph bn hng 2,015,859,406 414,910,768 2,114,949,141Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 30,909,753,892 16,217,992,990 39,061,440,041Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh -33,443,365,905 31,070,736,876 26,634,872,854Thu nhp khc 68,264,125,387 55,793,718,418 63,917,087,090Chi ph khc 31,247,178,998 23,524,032,083 45,207,540,377Li nhun khc 37,016,946,389 32,269,686,335 18,709,546,713Li nhun hoc l trong cng ty lin kt 1,937,887,144Tng li nhun k tan trc thu 3,573,580,484 63,340,423,211 47,282,306,711
Chi ph thu TNDN hin hnhChi ph thu TNDN hon li
Chi ph thu TNDN 972,439,576 1,415,691,342 4,598,056,766Li ch ca c ng thiu s -108,150,218
Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip 2,601,140,908 61,924,731,869 42,792,400,163Li c bn trn mi c phiu 1,952 2,846C tc trn mi c phiu 1,500 2,800
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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)
TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203
BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T
CH TIU NM 2008 NM 2007
Tng li nhun k ton trc thu 414,821,509 63,340,423,211
47,915,721,328 18,623,534,390
108,358,429,829 -65,977,193,170
-335,708,395,389 -664,025,655,983
1,001,862,464 490,181,818
-939,570,999 800,000,000
102,342,578
-15,273,359,150 -227,916,146,118
223,601,738,031
3,692,551,866 1,728,402,172
-123,522,830,599 -888,923,218,111
58,145,289,995 151,051,040,000
-200,000,000 -17,943,040,000
787,380,536,869 1,247,583,115,340
-814,916,783,005 -400,995,726,657
-32,407,863,197 -9,610,816,898
-1,998,819,338 970,084,571,785
-17,163,220,108 15,184,160,504
Chi ph khu hao ti sn c nh
D phng gim gi cc khon u t ngn hn, di hn
Li, l chnh lch t gi hi oi cha thc hin
Li, l t hot ng u t
Trong : Chi ph li vay
Li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh trc thay i vn lu ng
Tng, gim cc khon phi thu
Tng, gim hng tn khoTng, gim cc khon phi tr (Khng k li vay phi tr, thu TNDNphi np)
Tng, gim chi ph tr trc
Tin li vay tr
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip np
Tin thu khc t hot ng kinh doanh
Tin chi khc cho hot ng kinh doanh
Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng kinh doanh
LU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG U TMua sm TSC
Tin thu t thanh l, nhng bn TSC v cc ti sn di hn khc
Tin chi cho vay, mua cc cng c n ca n v khc
Tin thu hi cho vay, bn li cc cng c n ca n v khc
Tin chi u t gp vn vo n v khc
Tin thu hi u t gp vn vo n v khc
Tin thu li cho vay, c tc v li nhun c chia
Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng u tLU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG TI CHNH
Tin thu t pht hnh c phiu, nhn vn gp ca ch s hun c tr v n g p c o c c c s u, mua c p u c a oan
nghip pht hnh
Tin vay ngn hn, di hn nhn c
Tin chi tr n gc vay
Tin chi tr n thu ti chnh
C tc, li nhun tr cho ch s hu
Chi t cc qu ca doanh nghip
Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng ti chnh
Lu chuyn tin thun trong k
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63,912,129,558 28,450,997,606
56,055,310 -22,177,721
46,804,964,760 43,612,980,389
Tin v tng ng tin u k
nh hng ca thay i t gi hi oi quy i ngoi t
Tin v tng ng tin cui k
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n v tnh : VN
NM 2006
47,282,306,711
29,402,599,228
37,408,019,856
-226,284,168,874
2,790,338,712
-1,694,999,999
253,598,957
-32,571,497,247
7,498,931,940
-250,007,796,511
270,441,200
300,000,000
637,175,313,776
-503,121,329,015
-275,700,000
-1,465,942,060
132,882,783,901
-79,716,992,754
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142,430,803,454
-200,916,125
62,512,894,575
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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203
BNG CN I K TON
CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007TNG CNG TI SN 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,811Ti sn ngn hn 1,082,161,908,830 1,049,679,548,824
Tin v cc khon tng ng tin 46,804,964,758 43,612,980,384Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn 656,249,999 0Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 851,401,405,814 895,800,089,022Hng tn kho 159,487,170,095 94,074,085,476Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 16,192,393,942Ti sn di hn 949,145,981,861 770,182,837,987Cc khon phi thu di hn 21,759,091,059 143,902,816,036Ti sn c nh thun 795,497,025,061 209,478,923,652Bt ng sn u t 0 0Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn 91,444,850,573 409,005,355,617
Ti sn di hn khc 40,445,015,168 7,795,742,682T NG CNG NGU N V N 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,811N phi tr 1,647,682,134,637 1,447,571,057,515N ngn hn 675,898,544,090 718,504,335,221Vay v n ngn hn 360,882,611,437 534,616,340,728Phi tr ngi bn ngn hn 91,094,811,556 56,690,077,807Phi tr ngn hn khc 223,921,121,097 127,197,916,686N di hn 971,783,590,547 729,066,722,294Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 728,978,298,936Phi tr ngi bn di hn 0 0
Phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 88,423,358Vn ch s hu 317,306,620,174 372,291,329,296Vn u t ca ch s hu 319,999,999,968 319,999,999,968C phiu thng v thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -15,218,039,998Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 61,752,978,604Cc qu 17,455,624,826 5,756,390,722
66,319,135,880Vn c ng thiu s
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n v tnh : VN
Nm 2006932,831,682,909470,275,026,930
62,512,894,5720238,967,055,659147,220,462,770
21,574,613,929462,556,655,979
21,523,320,810361,980,497,456
063,914,671,389
15,138,166,324932,831,682,909729,575,411,138475,707,916,309270,474,143,255
71,220,131,741134,013,641,313253,867,494,829252,180,079,873
0
1,687,414,956177,563,793,675149,999,999,985
143,522,06622,587,889,4024,832,382,222
25,692,478,096
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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203
BO CO KT QU KINH DOANH
CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007Tng doanh thu hot ng kinh doanh 369,266,034,140 366,102,075,514
Cc khon gim tr doanh thu 354,124,064 0Doanh thu thun 368,911,910,076 366,102,075,514Gi vn hng bn 317,288,851,824 313,890,602,487Li nhun gp 51,623,058,252 52,211,473,027Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 28,420,082,450 22,262,142,415Chi ph ti chnh cha k li vay 1,573,744,859 8,146,440,418Chi ph bn hng 2,015,859,406 414,910,768Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 30,909,753,892 16,217,992,990Thu nhp khc 68,264,125,387 55,793,718,418Chi ph khc 31,247,178,998 23,524,032,083
Li nhun hoc l trong cng ty lin kt 0 0Thu nhp trc thu, li vay v khu hao (EBITDA) 183,572,640,771 112,507,206,169Khu hao 101,011,911,837 30,543,248,568Thu nhp trc thu v li vay (EBIT) 82,560,728,934 81,963,957,601Chi ph li vay 78,987,148,450 18,623,534,390Thu nhp trc thu (EBT) 3,573,580,484 63,340,423,211Thu thu nhp doanh nghip 972,439,576 1,415,691,342Li ch ca c ng thiu s 0 0Li rng 2,601,140,908 61,924,731,869Li c bn trn mi c phiu 0 1,952
383,035,388,979CP96,684,207,837DT78,987,148,450li vay
101,011,911,837KH286,351,181,142466,350,241,429
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Nm 2006710,757,779,071
112,708,943710,645,070,128617,682,232,680
92,962,837,4484,893,817,909
642,794,0932,114,949,141
39,061,440,04163,917,087,09045,207,540,377
1,937,887,144188,577,599,447111,892,693,508
76,684,905,93929,402,599,22847,282,306,7114,598,056,766-108,150,218
42,792,400,1632,846
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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203
CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 20061. Cc t s thanh khon
T s hin hnh 1.60 1.46 0.99T s thanh ton nhanh 1.37 1.33 0.682. Cc t s qun l ti snVng quay khon phi thu 0.43 0.41 2.97K thu tin bnh qun 842.37 893.10 122.74Vng quay khon phi tr 3.48 5.54 8.67K tr tin bnh qun 104.79 65.92 42.09T s vng quay hng tn kho 2.31 3.89 4.83S ngy tn kho bnh qun 183.47 109.39 87.00T s vng quay TSC 0.46 1.75 1.96T s vng quay tng TS 0.18 0.20 0.763. Cc t s qun l nT s n trn vn 5.19 3.89 4.11T s n trn tng ti sn 0.81 0.80 0.78T s n di hn trn tng vn di hn 0.95 1.02 0.91H s khuych i vn 6.40 4.89 5.25T s thanh ton li vay (TIE) 1.05 4.40 2.614. T s kh nng sinh liT l li gp 13.99% 14.26% 13.08%
T l li rng (ROS) 0.71% 16.91% 6.02%T sut sinh li trn ti sn (ROA) 0.13% 3.40% 4.59%T sut sinh li trn vn ch s hu (ROE) 0.82% 16.63% 24.10%5. Phng trnh Duponta.T l li rng 0.71% 16.91% 6.02%b.T s vng quay ti sn 18.16% 20.12% 76.18%c. H s khuch i vn 6.40 4.89 5.25ROE = (a) *( b) * ( c) 0.82% 16.63% 24.10%6. T s gi tr th trngS lng c phiu ang lu hnh 32,000,000 32,000,000 15,000,000
Thu nhp trn mi c phn (EPS) 0 1,952 2,846C tc trn mi c phn ( DPS ) 0 1,500 2,800Gi tr s sch mi c phn 9,916 11,634 11,838Dng tin mi c phn ( CFPS ) 3,238 2,890 10,312T s gi/thu nhp (P/E)T s gi/dng tinT s gi tr th trng/gi tr s sch
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Cng thc tnh
=TSL/N ngn hn=(TSL-Tn kho)/N ngn hn
=Doanh thu/Khon phi thu bq=Khon phi thu /Doanh thu bq mt ngy=Gi vn hng bn/Phi tr ngi bn bq=Phi tr ngi bn/Gi vn bq mt ngy=Doanh thu/Hng tn kho=Hng tn kho/Gi vn bq mt ngy=Doanh thu/ TSC thun=Doanh thu/Tng TS
=Tng n/Vn ch s hu=Tng n/Tng TS=N di hn/(N di hn + vn c ng)=Tng ti sn/Vn ch s hu=EBIT/Li vay
=Li gp/Doanh thu thun
=Li nhun sau thu/Doanh thu thun=Li nhun sau thu/Tng ti sn=Li nhun sau thu/Vn ch s hu
=Li nhun sau thu/doanh thu thun=Doanh thu thun/tng ti sn=Tng ti sn/ vn ch s hu
=Li rng / EPS
=Li rng / C phiu thng ang lu hnh=C tc tr cho c ng thng/C phiu thng ang lu hnh=Gi tr VCSH/S c phiu ang lu hnh=(Li rng+KH )/C phiu thng ang lu hnh=Gi th trng mi c phn/Thu nhp trn c phn=Gi th trng mi c phn/Thu nhp trn mi c phn=Gi th trng mi c phn/Gi tr s sch trn mi c phn
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SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.68R Square 0.47Adjusted R 0.41Standard E 0.03Observatio 20
ANOVAdf SS MS F ignificance F
Regression 1 0.01 0.01 16.54 0Residual 19 0.02 0Total 20 0.03
Coefficients andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%ower 95.0 pper 95.0
Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
X Variable 0.9 0.22 4.07 0 0.44 1.37 0.44 1.37
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
bservatio Predicted Y Residuals
1 0.02 0.022 0.01 -0.033 0.01 -0.064 -0.02 05 -0.02 0.06
6 0.03 0.017 -0.02 -0.028 -0.04 -0.019 -0.03 0.06
10 0.01 0.0311 -0.02 -0.0212 0.02 0.0213 0.04 014 0.04 015 -0.01 -0.0216 -0.02 -0.02
17 0.04 0.0118 0.04 019 0.02 0.0120 0.03 0
-10.00%
-
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
X
Y
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-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
Column B
Column B
X Variable 1
Y
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X Y% Thay i VN-INDEX % Thay i gi
1.88% 4%0.64% -2.60%1.22% -4.94%
-1.68% -1.22%-2.07% 3.80%2.91% 3.95%
-1.92% -3.80%-4.56% -4.82%-2.83% 3.75%1.35% 3.90%
-2.24% -3.75%2.08% 3.90%4.60% 4.05%4.28% 4.23%
-0.65% -2.74%-2.67% -3.95%3.89% 4.11%4.37% 4.29%2.69% 2.94%3.15% 3.03%
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DNG TIN
CH TIU NM 2008 NM 2007Ti sn lu ng hot ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,049,679,548,824
N phi tr hot ng 1,647,682,134,637 1,447,571,057,515Khu hao 101,011,911,837 30,543,248,568Thu nhp trc thu, li vay v khu EBITDA 183,572,640,771 112,507,206,169Thu nhp trc thu v li vay EBIT 82,560,728,934 81,963,957,601Vn lu ng hot ng thun NOWC 742,677,608,014 849,599,160,389Tng vn hat ng thun TOC 1,538,174,633,075 1,059,078,084,041Li nhun hot ng thun sau thu NOPAT 81,588,289,358 80,548,266,259Dng tin hot ng OCF 182,600,201,195 111,091,514,827Thay i vn lu ng NOWC -106,921,552,375 606,132,520,442
Thay i TSC FA 588,279,283,321 -263,991,098,968Dng tin t do FCF -298,757,529,751 -231,049,906,647Dng tin t ch n FCFD 10,530,798,784 -722,316,882,146Dng tin ch ch s hu FCFE -309,288,328,535 491,266,975,499Li nhun trn vn u t ROIC 5.30% 7.61%Chi ph vn WACC 7.95% 7.26%Gi tr th trng gia tng MVAGi tr kinh t gia tng EVA (40,733,312,327) 3,653,155,112
Nhn xt : FCF nm 2008 < 0 do u t nhiu ti sn c nhNm 2008 ROIC < WACC , cng ty khng t c sut sinh li k nh vngNm 2006 v 2007, ROIC > WACC , cng ty t c sut sinh li nh k vng
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NM 2006470,275,026,930729,575,411,138111,892,693,508 Ly khu hao ly k lm khu hao nm188,577,599,447
76,684,905,939243,466,639,947 =TSL cn thit cho hng sxkd - Tng n ngn hn ko chu li605,447,137,403 =NOWC+TSC thun
72,086,849,173 =EBIT-thu183,979,542,681 =NOPAT+KH
=NOWC ck-NOWC k
=NG cui k - NG u k=OCF-FA-NWC=li vay - vay mn thun=FCF - FCFD
11.91% =NOPAT/TOC6.67%
31,703,472,640 EVA=NOPAT-WACC*TOC
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ny )
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Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
1. M hnh nh gi ti sn vn ( CAPM )
Krf : T sut phi ri ro, s dng tri phiu kho bc k hn 5 nmNm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Krf 9.00% 7.87% 7.15%H s Beta b = 0.9Phn b ri ro th trng k vng ( Km - Krf ) = 7.88 %Ke = Krf + ( Km - K rf )*b
Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Krf 9.00% 7.87% 7.15%( Km - K rf ) 7.88% 7.88% 7.88% Cn c vo xp hng tn dng
b 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%Ke 9.07% 7.94% 7.22%
2. Li sut tri phiu cng phn b ri ro RP ( chn phng php ny )
Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Kd 9.00% 7.87% 7.15%RP 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%Ke = Kd + RP 13.00% 11.87% 11.15%
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Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun WACC
Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Kd 9.00% 7.87% 7.15% Vay v n ngn hKe 13.00% 11.87% 11.15% Vay v n di hnT trng n 0.81 0.77 0.75 Vn ch s huT trng c phiu thng 0.19 0.23 0.25 TngThu sut TNDN 25.00% 25.00% 28.00%WACC 7.95% 7.26% 6.67%
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Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006360,882,611,437 534,616,340,728 270,474,143,255971,168,377,893 728,978,298,936 252,180,079,873317,306,620,174 372,291,329,296 177,563,793,675
1,649,357,609,504 1,635,885,968,960 700,218,016,803
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PH LC XT PHEst
To estimate the long term country risk premium, I start with the country rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and es
that rating (US corporates and country bonds) over the treasury bond rate. This becomes a measure of the added country r
I add this default spread to the historical risk premium for a mature equity market (estimated from US historical data) to e
In the short term especially, the equity country risk premium is likely to be greater than the country's default spread. You
premium by multiplying the default spread by the relative equity market volatility for that market (Std dev in country equi
In this spreadsheet, I have used the global average of equity to bond market volatility of 1.5 to estimate the country equity
Enter the current risk premium for a mature equity market
The US corporate spreads come from a deeper market, but the country bond spreads may be a more direc
go to the bottom of the spreadsheet.
Do you want to adjust the country risk premium for the additional volatility of the equity market?If no, use the country risk premium from the columns below
If yes, you can adjust the country risk premium for the relative volatility of the equity market below:
Enter the country risk premium from default spread =Enter the standard deviation in the equity market in the country =Enter the standard deviation in the long term bond issued by the country =
The adjusted country risk premium for your country is =
Country Region Long-Term Rating
Albania Eastern Europe & Russia B1
Argentina Central and South America B3
Armenia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2
Australia Australia & New Zealand Aaa
Austria [1] Western Europe Aaa
Azerbaijan Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1
Bahamas Caribbean A1
Bahrain Middle East A2
Barbados Caribbean A3
Belarus Eastern Europe & Russia B1
Belgium [1] Western Europe Aa1
Belize Central and South America Caa1
Bermuda Caribbean Aaa
Bolivia Central and South America B3
Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe & Russia B2
Botswana Africa A1
Brazil Central and South America Ba1
Bulgaria Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3
Cambodia Asia B2
Canada North America Aaa
Cayman Islands Caribbean Aa3
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Chile Central and South America A1
China Asia A1
Colombia Central and South America Baa3
Costa Rica Central and South America Ba1
Croatia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa2
Cuba Caribbean Caa1
Cyprus [1] Western Europe Aa3
Czech Republic Eastern Europe & Russia A1
Denmark Western Europe Aaa
Dominican Republic Caribbean B2
Ecuador Central and South America Ca
Egypt Africa Ba1
El Salvador Central and South America Baa2
Estonia Eastern Europe & Russia A1
Fiji Islands Asia Ba2
Finland [1] Western Europe Aaa
France [1] Western Europe Aaa
Germany [1] Western Europe Aaa
Greece [1] Western Europe A1
Guatemala Central and South America Ba1
Honduras Central and South America B2
Hong Kong Asia Aa2
Hungary Eastern Europe & Russia A3
Iceland Western Europe Baa1
India Asia Ba2Indonesia Asia Ba3
Ireland [1] Western Europe Aaa
Isle of Man Financial Center Aaa
Israel Middle East A1
Italy [1] Western Europe Aa2
Jamaica Caribbean Ba2
Japan Asia Aa3
Jordan Middle East Baa3
Kazakhstan Eastern Europe & Russia Baa1
Korea Asia A2Kuwait Middle East Aa2
Latvia Eastern Europe & Russia A3
Lebanon Middle East B3
Lithuania Eastern Europe & Russia A2
Luxembourg [1] Financial Center Aaa
Macao Asia Aa3
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Malaysia Asia A3
Malta [1] Western Europe A1
Mauritius Africa Baa2
Mexico Central and South America Baa1
Moldova Eastern Europe & Russia Caa1
Mongolia Asia B1
Montenegro Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2
Morocco Africa Ba1
Netherlands [1] Western Europe Aaa
New Zealand Australia & New Zealand Aaa
Nicaragua Central and South America B3
Norway Western Europe Aaa
Oman Middle East A2
Pakistan Asia B3
Panama Central and South America Ba1
Papua New Guinea Asia B1
Paraguay Central and South America B3
Peru Central and South America Baa3
Philippines Asia B1
Poland Eastern Europe & Russia A2
Portugal [1] Western Europe Aa2
Qatar Middle East Aa2
Romania Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3
Russia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa1
Saudi Arabia Middle East A1Singapore Asia Aaa
Slovakia Eastern Europe & Russia A1
Slovenia [1] Eastern Europe & Russia Aa2
South Africa Africa A2
Spain [1] Western Europe Aaa
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Caribbean B1
Suriname Caribbean Ba3
Sweden Western Europe Aaa
Switzerland Western Europe Aaa
Taiwan Asia Aa3Thailand Asia Baa1
Trinidad and Tobago Caribbean Baa1
Tunisia Africa Baa2
Turkey Asia Ba3
Turkmenistan Eastern Europe & Russia B2
Ukraine Eastern Europe & Russia B1
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United Arab Emirates Middle East Aa2
United Kingdom Western Europe Aaa
United States of America North America Aaa
Uruguay Central and South America B1
Venezuela Central and South America B1
Vietnam Asia Ba3
Rating Default spread in basis points
Aaa 0Aa1 70Aa2 100Aa3 120A1 140A2 160
A3 175Baa1 200Baa2 225Baa3 260Ba1 300Ba2 400Ba3 525B1 650B2 750B3 900
Caa1 1200Caa2 1350
Caa3 1500
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N B RI RO THEO XP HNG TN DNGimating Country Risk Premiumstimate the default spread for
isk premium for that country.
stimate the total risk premium.
can estimate an adjusted country risk
ity market/Std dev in country bond)
risk premium.
5.00% ! I use the risk premium f The historical spreads re
t measure of country risk. To update the spreads
Yes
5.50%61% ! Use annualized historic35% ! Use annualized historic
9.59%
Adj. Default Spread Total Risk Premium ountry Risk Premium
650 14.75% 9.75%
900 18.50% 13.50%
400 11.00% 6.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
300 9.50% 4.50%
140 7.10% 2.10%
160 7.40% 2.40%
175 7.63% 2.63%
650 14.75% 9.75%
70 6.05% 1.05%
1200 23.00% 18.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
900 18.50% 13.50%
750 16.25% 11.25%
140 7.10% 2.10%
300 9.50% 4.50%
260 8.90% 3.90%
750 16.25% 11.25%
0 5.00% 0.00%
120 6.80% 1.80%
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140 7.10% 2.10%
140 7.10% 2.10%
260 8.90% 3.90%
300 9.50% 4.50%
225 8.38% 3.38%
1200 23.00% 18.00%
120 6.80% 1.80%
140 7.10% 2.10%
0 5.00% 0.00%
750 16.25% 11.25%
260 8.90% 3.90%
300 9.50% 4.50%
225 8.38% 3.38%
140 7.10% 2.10%
400 11.00% 6.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
140 7.10% 2.10%
300 9.50% 4.50%
750 16.25% 11.25%
100 6.50% 1.50%
175 7.63% 2.63%
200 8.00% 3.00%
400 11.00% 6.00%525 12.88% 7.88%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
140 7.10% 2.10%
100 6.50% 1.50%
400 11.00% 6.00%
120 6.80% 1.80%
260 8.90% 3.90%
200 8.00% 3.00%
160 7.40% 2.40%100 6.50% 1.50%
175 7.63% 2.63%
900 18.50% 13.50%
160 7.40% 2.40%
0 5.00% 0.00%
120 6.80% 1.80%
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175 7.63% 2.63%
140 7.10% 2.10%
225 8.38% 3.38%
200 8.00% 3.00%
1200 23.00% 18.00%
650 14.75% 9.75%
400 11.00% 6.00%
300 9.50% 4.50%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
900 18.50% 13.50%
0 5.00% 0.00%
160 7.40% 2.40%
900 18.50% 13.50%
300 9.50% 4.50%
650 14.75% 9.75%
900 18.50% 13.50%
260 8.90% 3.90%
650 14.75% 9.75%
160 7.40% 2.40%
100 6.50% 1.50%
100 6.50% 1.50%
260 8.90% 3.90%
200 8.00% 3.00%
140 7.10% 2.10%0 5.00% 0.00%
140 7.10% 2.10%
100 6.50% 1.50%
160 7.40% 2.40%
0 5.00% 0.00%
650 14.75% 9.75%
525 12.88% 7.88%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
120 6.80% 1.80%200 8.00% 3.00%
200 8.00% 3.00%
225 8.38% 3.38%
525 12.88% 7.88%
750 16.25% 11.25%
650 14.75% 9.75%
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100 6.50% 1.50%
0 5.00% 0.00%
0 5.00% 0.00%
650 14.75% 9.75%
650 14.75% 9.75%
525 12.88% 7.88%
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or the United States for this estimatepresent an average over 5 years
! Yes or No
l volatilityl volatility
Has to be sorted in ascending order
Rating Default spread in basis points
A1 140
A2 160
A3 175
Aa1 70
Aa2 100
Aa3 120
Aaa 0
B1 650
B2 750
B3 900
Ba1 300
Ba2 400
Ba3 525
Baa1 200
Baa2 225
Baa3 260
Caa1 1200
Caa2 1350
Caa3 1500
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D bo nm 2009
Nm Doanh thu thun2005 342,782,540,005
2006 710,645,070,1282007 366,102,075,5142008 368,911,910,076
Theo tnh cht ca chu k kinh t, khi bc ra khi khng hong v c tn hiu phc hi, ngthng l nhng ngnh ngh hi phc nhanh. c bit, hiu ng kch cu m cc chnh ph,khai u hng mnh vo u t xy dng c bn, vn ng gp t trng ln trong tng tr
Chnh ph d kin tc tng trng nm 2009 t 4.7%, nm 2010 t 6.5%
D c ci thin trong na u nm 2009, lnh vc xy dng s vn gp nhiu kh khn.Na u nm 2009, xy dng tng trng 8,7% so vi cng k nm trc.Nguyn nhn khin lnh vc ny tng trng l li sut cho vay mc thp.(Theo bo co The Vietnam Business Forecast Report Quarter 4/2009 ca Business Monitor
D bo doanh thu qua cc nm :
Nm Doanh thu d bo thay i so vi nm 20082009 401,007,246,253 8.70%2010 413,181,339,285 12.00%2011 461,139,887,595 25.00%2012 483,274,602,200 31.00%2013 505,409,316,804 37.00%
D bao cho nam 2009
Can be used to get an estimate of funds needed if ratios remain constant.
A* 2,031,307,890,691 AFN =
368,911,910,076 = 176,723,786,490
401,007,246,253 = 151,637,436,663S 32,095,336,177L* 315,015,932,653M 0.705%RR -82.05%
THE AFN EQUATION (Section 17.3)
(A*/S0)S
S0
S1
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8.700%
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS: INCREASE ITEMS AT THE SALES GROWTH RATEKEY INPUT DATA: Raise AFN as foll
8.70% Notes
8.00% LT debtTax rate 25.00% Com. Stk.Interest rate on all debt 10.50%
Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases
2008 with sales 1st PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 401,007,246,253Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 201,463,785,735Khu hao 101,011,911,837 109,799,948,167Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 311,263,733,901EBIT 82,560,728,934 89,743,512,351Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 9,423,068,797EBT 3,573,580,484 80,320,443,554Thu 972,439,576 20,080,110,889Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 60,240,332,666
C tc 520,228,182 565,488,033
Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 59,674,844,632Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906
Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 50,876,996,692Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 926,186,671,869Tn kho 159,487,170,095 173,362,553,893Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 25,883,772,444Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,176,309,994,898
Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 1,031,721,682,283Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 2,208,031,677,181
N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 99,020,060,161Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 243,402,258,632Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 703,304,930,231Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 668,736,155Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,837,114,048
Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,675,142,044,279Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848
The AFN equation can be used to estimate the maximum growth rate without resorting to extas follows:
gS = S/S0 =
Sales Growth Rate, gs
Dividend growth rate, gd
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -19,581,931,708Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 57,540,496,597Cc qu 17,455,624,826 18,974,264,186Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 443,251,964,923Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,118,394,009,202
AFN 89,637,667,979AFN ly tch 89,637,667,979
Notes 25.000% 22,409,416,995LT debt 30.000% 26,891,300,394
Com. Stk. 45.000% 40,336,950,591100.000% 89,637,667,979
Cc t s2008
T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18T l n vay 81.1%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7%
T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 2.11% 0.18 4.85
Bng cn i k ton v kt qu kinh doanh d bo iu chnh (t s cn
Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Doanh thu 368,911,910,076 401,007,246,253Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 201,463,785,735Khu hao 101,011,911,837 109,799,948,167Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 311,263,733,901
EBIT 82,560,728,934 89,743,512,351Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 carried over 9,423,068,797EBT 3,573,580,484 80,320,443,554Thu 972,439,576 20,080,110,889Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 60,240,332,666
C tc 520,228,182 565,488,033Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 59,674,844,632Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906
Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Ti sn
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
T s vng quay
ti sn
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Tin 46,804,964,758 50,876,996,692Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 modified 401,007,246,253Tn kho 159,487,170,095 modified 128,685,518,491Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 25,883,772,444Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 606,453,533,880Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 modified 722,205,177,598Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,328,658,711,478
N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 99,020,060,161Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 243,402,258,632Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 703,304,930,231Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 668,736,155Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,837,114,048Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,675,142,044,279
Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -19,581,931,708Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 57,540,496,597Cc qu 17,455,624,826 18,974,264,186Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 443,251,964,923Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,118,394,009,202
AFN -789,735,297,724AFN ly tch -789,735,297,724
Notes 25.000% -197,433,824,431LT debt 30.000% -236,920,589,317
Com. Stk. 45.000% -355,380,883,976100.000% -789,735,297,724
Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh nm 200Income Statements D bo
Thc t nm 2008 4th PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 401,007,246,253Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 201,463,785,735Khu hao 101,011,911,837 109,799,948,167Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 311,263,733,901EBIT 82,560,728,934 89,743,512,351
Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 25,384,133,587EBT 3,573,580,484 64,359,378,764Thu 972,439,576 16,089,844,691Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 48,269,534,073C tc 520,228,182 565,488,033Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 47,704,046,040Retention Ratio 0.800 0.9883
Bng cn i k ton nm 2008 v d kin nm 2009Balance Sheet Actual 2008 2009
4th Pass
Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 50,876,996,692
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 401,007,246,253Tn kho 159,487,170,095 128,685,518,491Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 25,883,772,444Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 606,453,533,880Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 722,205,177,598Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,328,658,711,478
N v vn ch s hu Phi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 99,020,060,161Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 166,441,486,654Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 243,402,258,632Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 508,863,805,448Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 737,839,028,154Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 668,736,155Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 738,507,764,308Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,247,371,569,756Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 36,325,111,239
Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -19,581,931,708Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 45,569,698,005Cc qu 17,455,624,826 18,974,264,186Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 81,287,141,722Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 1,328,658,711,478
4th Pass2008 2009
T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60 1.19Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31 3.12K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0 365.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18 0.30T l n vay 81.1% 93.9%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30 16.35T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05 3.54Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6% 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7% 12.04%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1% 3.63%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7% 59.38%
T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30
Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 12.04% 0.30 16.35Du Pont ROE, modified = 12.04% 0.30 16.35
Cng Ty CNT = 4.00% 2.60 1.60
Nm Doanh thu Hng tn kho Khon phi thu20042005 342,782,540,005 125,158,057,891 169,226,476,5822006 710,645,070,128 147,220,462,770 238,967,055,6592007 366,102,075,514 94,074,085,476 895,800,089,0222008 368,911,910,076 159,487,170,095 851,401,405,814
T s vng quayti sn
USING REGRESSION TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL FORECASTS (Section 17.5)
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2009 401,007,246,253 ? ?
D bo hng tn khoRegression Prior
Forecast Forecast DifferenceInventories 128,685,518,491 128,685,518,491 0R-Square 0.84
D bo khon phi thuRegression Prior
Forecast Forecast DifferenceReceivables 585,354,550,917 401,007,246,253 184,347,304,665R-Square 0.99
iu chnh cng sut hot ng ti a cho cc ti sn c nh hin c t 70% nh nm 20082008 Sales 368,911,910,0762009 Pred. Sales 401,007,246,253Percentage of capacity 0.70
2008 Fixed Assets 949,145,981,861
Full capacity sales = 527,017,014,394 , which is the sales achievable in 2008Target FA/Sales = 1.80 , which is the 2008 FA divided by the 2Required FA = 722,205,177,598 , which is forecasted 2009 sales timesPrevious Forecast = 1,031,721,682,283 , which assumed that FA grow at the sPotential savings = 309,516,504,685
Potential Inventory Reduction based on Turnover
VNE's inv turnover ratio, 4th pass: 2.31CNT Company average ratio: 22.96
Sales/Inventories, based on 4th pass = 401,007,246,253 /Inventories if achieved industry average turnover:
401,007,246,253 /Difference:
Potential Receivables Reduction based on DSO
S liu khon phi thu theo m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh ln hn s liu d bo theo cc ch sng nn khng iu chnh cc khon s liu ny theo s liu d bo tuyn tnh
FORECASTING FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS WHEN FINANCIAL RATIOS CHAN
It is not necessarily appropriate to assume that current assets should grow at the same rate as salenot operating at full capacity. This means they could produce more, hence have higher sales, with twere 368,911,910,076, while fixed assets were 949,145,981,861 million. Now, suppose we determican use this information to calculate the firm's full capacity sales and the target fixed assets-to-sales
If LTC could reduce its inventories to the point where its inventory turnover ratio was the same as thup this much cash:
Nhn xt: vng quay hng tn kho ca VNE l 2,31 nh hn vng quay hng tn kho ca cncho thy cng ty ang nm gi hng tn kho khng hp l nn iu chnh d liu nm 2008
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If LTC could reduce its receivables to the point where its DSO was the same as the industry averag
LTC's DSO, 4th pass: 843.02Company PTC average ratio: 365.00Receivables, based on 4th pass = 926,186,671,869
DSO = A/R /DSO = 926,186,671,869 /
A/R if achieved Company PTC DSO: 401,007,246,253 /Difference: 525,179,425,616
Nhn xt: iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO ca cng VNE t 843,023 ngy v cn365 ngqu.
Nh vy, sau khi cn c vo cc t s ca nm 2008, so snh vi t s ca cng ty cng ngth , hai khon iu chnh trong d bo l iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO t 843,023 nca ti sn c nh t 70% ln 100%. Thay th, cc s liu iu chnh ny vo li bng d b
S dng d bo khon phi thu theo phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh vi doanh thu cho s lius ca cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng PTC, ct iu chnh modified c gith 4
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nh ti chnh, xy dng v BStrong c Vit Nam ang trinng GDP.
International.(BMI))
-27,406,386,141 2,320,036,314
- (L*/S0)S - MS
1(RR)
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ws:
25% 286,351,181,142
30% 368,911,910,07645% 0.78 0.5
100%
2009 (d bo)
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment401,007,246,253 401,007,246,253201,463,785,735 201,463,785,735109,799,948,167 109,799,948,167311,263,733,901 311,263,733,901
89,743,512,351 89,743,512,35166,054,780,755 75,477,849,552 2,860,997,691 78,338,847,244 123,916,963
14,265,662,799 11,404,665,1073,566,415,700 2,851,166,277
10,699,247,099 8,553,498,831
565,488,033 565,488,033
10,133,759,066 7,988,010,7970.9471 0.9339
2009 Forecast
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment
50,876,996,692 50,876,996,692926,186,671,869 926,186,671,869173,362,553,893 173,362,553,893
25,883,772,444 25,883,772,4441,176,309,994,898 1,176,309,994,898
1,031,721,682,283 1,031,721,682,2832,208,031,677,181 2,208,031,677,181
99,020,060,161 99,020,060,161
22,409,416,995 383,292,028,432 12,385,271,392 395,677,299,823 536,437,067243,402,258,632 243,402,258,632725,714,347,226 738,099,618,617
26,891,300,394 998,059,678,287 14,862,325,670 1,012,922,003,957 643,724,481668,736,155 668,736,155
998,728,414,442 1,013,590,740,112
1,724,442,761,667 1,751,690,358,72940,336,950,591 426,656,086,439 22,293,488,505 448,949,574,944 965,586,721
rnal financing. First, we define the sales growth rate
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-19,581,931,708 -19,581,931,70810,133,759,066 7,999,411,031 7,988,010,797 5,853,662,762 7,895,073,075
18,974,264,186 18,974,264,186434,047,829,947 454,195,570,184
2,158,490,591,615 2,205,885,928,913
49,541,085,567 2,145,748,269139,178,753,546 141,324,501,814
12,385,271,392 536,437,06714,862,325,670 643,724,48122,293,488,505 965,586,72149,541,085,567 2,145,748,269
ROE0.7%1.9%
c vo cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng)
2009 (d bo)
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment401,007,246,253 401,007,246,253201,463,785,735 201,463,785,735109,799,948,167 109,799,948,167311,263,733,901 311,263,733,901
89,743,512,351 89,743,512,35115,270,991,986 24,694,060,783 661,424,840 25,355,485,623 28,647,963
65,049,451,568 64,388,026,72816,262,362,892 16,097,006,68248,787,088,676 48,291,020,046
565,488,033 565,488,03348,221,600,643 47,725,532,013
0.9884 0.9883
2009 Forecast
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment
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0 50,876,996,692 50,876,996,6920 401,007,246,253 401,007,246,2530 128,685,518,491 128,685,518,4910 25,883,772,444 25,883,772,4440 606,453,533,880 606,453,533,8800 722,205,177,598 722,205,177,5980 1,328,658,711,478 1,328,658,711,4780
00 99,020,060,161 99,020,060,161
-197,433,824,431 163,448,787,006 2,863,310,997 166,312,098,003 124,017,1580 243,402,258,632 243,402,258,6320 505,871,105,800 508,734,416,797
-236,920,589,317 734,247,788,576 3,435,973,197 737,683,761,773 148,820,5890 668,736,155 668,736,1550 734,916,524,731 738,352,497,928
1,240,787,630,531 1,247,086,914,725
-355,380,883,976 30,938,251,872 5,153,959,795 36,092,211,668 223,230,8840 -19,581,931,708 -19,581,931,708
48,221,600,643 46,087,252,608 47,725,532,013 45,591,183,978 47,704,046,0400 18,974,264,186 18,974,264,1860 76,417,836,958 81,075,728,1230 1,317,205,467,489 1,328,162,642,848
11,453,243,990 496,068,630-778,282,053,734 -777,785,985,104
2,863,310,997 124,017,1583,435,973,197 148,820,589
5,153,959,795 223,230,88411,453,243,990 496,068,630
8 v d kin nm 20092009
Modified401,007,246,253201,463,785,735109,799,948,167311,263,733,90189,743,512,351
25,384,133,58764,359,378,76416,089,844,69148,269,534,073
565,488,03347,704,046,040
0.9883
Forecast:
Modified
50,876,996,692
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401,007,246,253128,685,518,49125,883,772,444
606,453,533,880722,205,177,598
1,328,658,711,478
99,020,060,161166,441,486,654243,402,258,632508,863,805,448737,839,028,154
668,736,155738,507,764,308
1,247,371,569,75636,325,111,239
-19,581,931,70845,569,698,00518,974,264,18681,287,141,722
1,328,658,711,478
Modified Cty tng ng2009 CNT 20081.19 1.043.12 22.96
365.0 66.490.30 2.60
93.9% 84.0%16.35 1.603.54 1.46
77.6%12.04% 4.00%3.63% 1.35%59.38% 9.19%
ROE0.7%
59.38%59.38% ROE tng l do t l li rng v h s khuch i vn tng.16.64%
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ln 100%
with the 949.145.981.861 of FA.08 full capacity sales.
he target FA/Sales ratio.les growth rate.
128,685,518,491 = 3.12
17,465,472,398 = 22.96111,220,046,093
ca cng ty c quy m tng
GE (Web Appendix 17A)
. The same is true for fixed assets. Suppose the firm isheir existing fixed assets. Remember, sales for 2008ne that the firm was operating at 70% of full capacity. Weratio.
e industry average, then it would free
g ty c quy m tng ng CNT l 22.96; iu nyheo vng quay hng tn kho ca cng ty CNT
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, then it would free up this much cash:
sales/3651,098,649,990 = 843.0231,098,649,990 = 365.00
y cng ty ny c k thu tin lu
nh c quy m tng ng CNT; cgy cn 365 ngy; nng cng sut
ban u chy li vng lp 4 ln.
ao hn sau khi iu chnh theo tnguyn khng i so vi ln d bo
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4th Pass401,007,246,253201,463,785,735109,799,948,167311,263,733,901
89,743,512,35178,462,764,20611,280,748,1452,820,187,0368,460,561,109
565,488,033
7,895,073,0750.9332
4th Pass
50,876,996,692926,186,671,869173,362,553,893
25,883,772,4441,176,309,994,898
1,031,721,682,2832,208,031,677,181
99,020,060,161
396,213,736,891243,402,258,632738,636,055,684
1,013,565,728,437668,736,155
1,014,234,464,592
1,752,870,520,277449,915,161,664
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-19,581,931,7085,760,725,040
18,974,264,186455,068,219,183
2,207,938,739,459
92,937,722141,417,439,536
23,234,43027,881,31741,821,97592,937,722
4th pass1.592.31
843.00.18
79.4%4.851.14
77.6%2.1%0.4%1.9%
4th Pass401,007,246,253201,463,785,735109,799,948,167311,263,733,901
89,743,512,35125,384,133,58764,359,378,76416,089,844,69148,269,534,073
565,488,03347,704,046,040
0.9883
4th Pass
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50,876,996,692401,007,246,253128,685,518,491
25,883,772,444606,453,533,880722,205,177,598
1,328,658,711,478
99,020,060,161
166,436,115,161243,402,258,632508,858,433,955737,832,582,362
668,736,155738,501,318,517
1,247,359,752,471
36,315,442,551-19,581,931,70845,569,698,00518,974,264,18681,277,473,034
1,328,637,225,506
21,485,973-777,764,499,132
5,371,4936,445,792
9,668,68821,485,973
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D bo nm 2010
Nm Doanh thu thun2005 342,782,540,005
2006 710,645,070,1282007 366,102,075,5142008 368,911,910,076
Theo tnh cht ca chu k kinh t, khi bc ra khi khng hong v c tn hiu phc hi, ngthng l nhng ngnh ngh hi phc nhanh. c bit, hiu ng kch cu m cc chnh ph,khai u hng mnh vo u t xy dng c bn, vn ng gp t trng ln trong tng tr
Chnh ph d kin tc tng trng nm 2009 t 4.7%, nm 2010 t 6.5%
D c ci thin trong na u nm 2009, lnh vc xy dng s vn gp nhiu kh khn.Na u nm 2009, xy dng tng trng 8,7% so vi cng k nm trc.Nguyn nhn khin lnh vc ny tng trng l li sut cho vay mc thp.(Theo bo co The Vietnam Business Forecast Report Quarter 4/2009 ca Business Monitor
D bo doanh thu qua cc nm :
Nm Doanh thu d bo thay i so vi nm 20082009 401,007,246,253 8.70%2010 413,181,339,285 12.00%2011 461,139,887,595 25.00%2012 483,274,602,200 31.00%2013 505,409,316,804 37.00%
D bao cho nam 2010
Can be used to get an estimate of funds needed if ratios remain constant.
A* 2,031,307,890,691 AFN =
368,911,910,076 = 243,756,946,883
413,181,339,285 = 208,345,504,764S 44,269,429,209L* 315,015,932,653M 0.705%RR -82.05%
THE AFN EQUATION (Section 17.3)
(A*/S0)S
S0
S1
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12.000%
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS: INCREASE ITEMS AT THE SALES GROWTH RATEKEY INPUT DATA: Raise AFN as foll
12.00% Notes
8.00% LT debtTax rate 25.00% Com. Stk.Interest rate on all debt 10.50%
Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases
2008 with sales 1st PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 413,181,339,285Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 207,579,981,622Khu hao 101,011,911,837 113,133,341,257Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 320,713,322,879EBIT 82,560,728,934 92,468,016,406Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 9,709,141,723EBT 3,573,580,484 82,758,874,683Thu 972,439,576 20,689,718,671Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 62,069,156,013
C tc 520,228,182 582,655,563
Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 61,486,500,449Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906
Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 52,421,560,529Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 954,304,574,511Tn kho 159,487,170,095 178,625,630,506Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 26,669,572,344Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,212,021,337,890
Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 1,063,043,499,684Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 2,275,064,837,574
N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 102,026,188,943Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 250,791,655,629Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 713,700,456,008Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 689,038,172Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,857,416,065
Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,685,557,872,074Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848
The AFN equation can be used to estimate the maximum growth rate without resorting to extas follows:
gS = S/S0 =
Sales Growth Rate, gs
Dividend growth rate, gd
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -20,176,415,375Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 59,352,152,414Cc qu 17,455,624,826 19,550,299,805Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 445,045,172,692Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,130,603,044,766
AFN 144,461,792,808AFN ly tch 144,461,792,808
Notes 25.000% 36,115,448,202LT debt 30.000% 43,338,537,842
Com. Stk. 45.000% 65,007,806,764100.000% 144,461,792,808
Cc t s2008
T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18T l n vay 81.1%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7%
T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 1.89% 0.18 4.74
Bng cn i k ton v kt qu kinh doanh d bo iu chnh (t s cn
Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Doanh thu 368,911,910,076 413,181,339,285Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 207,579,981,622Khu hao 101,011,911,837 113,133,341,257Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 320,713,322,879
EBIT 82,560,728,934 92,468,016,406Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 carried over 9,709,141,723EBT 3,573,580,484 82,758,874,683Thu 972,439,576 20,689,718,671Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 62,069,156,013
C tc 520,228,182 582,655,563Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 61,486,500,449Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906
Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Ti sn
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
T s vng quay
ti sn
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Tin 46,804,964,758 52,421,560,529Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 modified 413,181,339,285Tn kho 159,487,170,095 modified 178,625,630,506Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 26,669,572,344Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 670,898,102,664Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 modified 744,130,449,779Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,415,028,552,443
N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 102,026,188,943Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 250,791,655,629Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 713,700,456,008Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 689,038,172Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,857,416,065Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,685,557,872,074
Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -20,176,415,375Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 59,352,152,414Cc qu 17,455,624,826 19,550,299,805Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 445,045,172,692Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,130,603,044,766
AFN -715,574,492,323AFN ly tch -715,574,492,323
Notes 25.000% -178,893,623,081LT debt 30.000% -214,672,347,697
Com. Stk. 45.000% -322,008,521,545100.000% -715,574,492,323
Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh nm 200Income Statements D bo
Thc t nm 2008 4th PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 413,181,339,285Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 207,579,981,622Khu hao 101,011,911,837 113,133,341,257Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 320,713,322,879EBIT 82,560,728,934 92,468,016,406
Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 30,146,525,606EBT 3,573,580,484 62,321,490,800Thu 972,439,576 15,580,372,700Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 46,741,118,100C tc 520,228,182 582,655,563Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 46,158,462,537Retention Ratio 0.800 0.9875
Bng cn i k ton nm 2008 v d kin nm 2010Balance Sheet Actual 2008 2010
4th Pass
Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 52,421,560,529
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 413,181,339,285Tn kho 159,487,170,095 178,625,630,506Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 26,669,572,344Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 670,898,102,664Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 744,130,449,779Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,415,028,552,443
N v vn ch s hu Phi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 102,026,188,943Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 185,820,997,834Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 250,791,655,629Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 538,638,842,406Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 761,094,441,570Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 689,038,172Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 761,783,479,742Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,300,422,322,148Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 71,208,231,363
Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -20,176,415,375Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 44,024,114,502Cc qu 17,455,624,826 19,550,299,805Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 114,606,230,295Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 1,415,028,552,443
4th Pass2008 2010
T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60 1.25Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31 2.31K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0 365.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18 0.29T l n vay 81.1% 91.9%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30 12.35T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05 3.07Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6% 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7% 11.31%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1% 3.30%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7% 40.78%
T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30
Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 11.31% 0.29 12.35Du Pont ROE, modified = 11.31% 0.29 12.35
Cng Ty CNT = 4.00% 2.60 1.60
Nm Doanh thu Hng tn kho Khon phi thu20042005 342,782,540,005 125,158,057,891 169,226,476,5822006 710,645,070,128 147,220,462,770 238,967,055,6592007 366,102,075,514 94,074,085,476 895,800,089,0222008 368,911,910,076 159,487,170,095 851,401,405,814
T s vng quayti sn
USING REGRESSION TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL FORECASTS (Section 17.5)
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2009 413,181,339,285 ? ?
D bo hng tn khoRegression Prior
Forecast Forecast DifferenceInventories 129,424,740,547 178,625,630,506 -49,200,889,960R-Square 0.84
D bo khon phi thuRegression Prior
Forecast Forecast DifferenceReceivables 573,074,135,553 413,181,339,285 159,892,796,267R-Square 0.99
iu chnh cng sut hot ng ti a cho cc ti sn c nh hin c t 70% nh nm 20082008 Sales 368,911,910,0762009 Pred. Sales 413,181,339,285Percentage of capacity 0.70
2008 Fixed Assets 949,145,981,861
Full capacity sales = 527,017,014,394 , which is the sales achievable in 2008Target FA/Sales = 1.80 , which is the 2008 FA divided by the 2Required FA = 744,130,449,779 , which is forecasted 2009 sales timesPrevious Forecast = 1,063,043,499,684 , which assumed that FA grow at the sPotential savings = 318,913,049,905
Potential Inventory Reduction based on Turnover
VNE's inv turnover ratio, 4th pass: 2.31CNT Company average ratio: 22.96
Sales/Inventories, based on 4th pass = 413,181,339,285 /Inventories if achieved industry average turnover:
413,181,339,285 /Difference:
Potential Receivables Reduction based on DSO
S liu khon phi thu theo m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh ln hn s liu d bo theo cc ch sng nn khng iu chnh cc khon s liu ny theo s liu d bo tuyn tnh
FORECASTING FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS WHEN FINANCIAL RATIOS CHAN
It is not necessarily appropriate to assume that current assets should grow at the same rate as salenot operating at full capacity. This means they could produce more, hence have higher sales, with twere 100,015,126,462, while fixed assets were 37,503,864,550 million. Now, suppose we determincan use this information to calculate the firm's full capacity sales and the target fixed assets-to-sales
If LTC could reduce its inventories to the point where its inventory turnover ratio was the same as thup this much cash:
Nhn xt: vng quay hng tn kho ca VNE l 2,31 nh hn vng quay hng tn kho ca cncho thy cng ty ang nm gi hng tn kho khng hp l nn iu chnh d liu nm 2008
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If LTC could reduce its receivables to the point where its DSO was the same as the industry averag
LTC's DSO, 4th pass: 843.02Company PTC average ratio: 365.00Receivables, based on 4th pass = 954,304,574,511
DSO = A/R /DSO = 954,304,574,511 /
A/R if achieved Company PTC DSO: 413,181,339,285 /Difference: 541,123,235,225
Nhn xt: iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO ca cng VNE t 843,023 ngy v cn 547 n547*1.098.649.990= 600.961.544.384 ( v hai cng ty ny chnh lch qu nhiu nn ch iu chbng cng ty CNT)
Nh vy, sau khi cn c vo cc t s ca nm 2008, so snh vi t s ca cng ty cng ngth , hai khon iu chnh trong d bo l iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO t 843,023 nca ti sn c nh t 80% ln 100%. Thay th, cc s liu iu chnh ny vo li bng d b
S dng d bo tn kho v khon phi thu theo phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh vi doanh thu chnh theo t s ca cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng PTC, ct iu chnh modifvi ln d bo th 4
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nh ti chnh, xy dng v BStrong c Vit Nam ang trinng GDP.
International.(BMI))
-37,801,911,918 2,390,469,799
- (L*/S0)S - MS
1(RR)
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ws:
25% 286,351,181,142
30% 368,911,910,07645% 0.78 0.5
100%
2010 (d bo)
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment413,181,339,285 413,181,339,285207,579,981,622 207,579,981,622113,133,341,257 113,133,341,257320,713,322,879 320,713,322,879
92,468,016,406 92,468,016,40669,220,873,964 78,930,015,687 2,998,129,104 81,928,144,791 129,856,467
13,538,000,719 10,539,871,6163,384,500,180 2,634,967,904
10,153,500,539 7,904,903,712
582,655,563 582,655,563
9,570,844,976 7,322,248,1480.9426 0.9263
2010 Forecast
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment
52,421,560,529 52,421,560,529954,304,574,511 954,304,574,511178,625,630,506 178,625,630,506
26,669,572,344 26,669,572,3441,212,021,337,890 1,212,021,337,890
1,063,043,499,684 1,063,043,499,6842,275,064,837,574 2,275,064,837,574
102,026,188,943 102,026,188,943
36,115,448,202 396,998,059,639 12,978,913,868 409,976,973,507 562,149,207250,791,655,629 250,791,655,629749,815,904,210 762,794,818,079
43,338,537,842 1,014,506,915,735 15,574,696,642 1,030,081,612,377 674,579,048689,038,172 689,038,172
1,015,195,953,908 1,030,770,650,550
1,765,011,858,118 1,793,565,468,62965,007,806,764 451,326,942,612 23,362,044,963 474,688,987,575 1,011,868,572
rnal financing. First, we define the sales growth rate
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-20,176,415,375 -20,176,415,3759,570,844,976 7,436,496,941 7,322,248,148 5,187,900,113 7,224,855,798
19,550,299,805 19,550,299,805458,137,323,982 479,250,772,118
2,223,149,182,101 2,272,816,240,746
51,915,655,473 2,248,596,828196,377,448,281 198,626,045,109
12,978,913,868 562,149,20715,574,696,642 674,579,04823,362,044,963 1,011,868,57251,915,655,473 2,248,596,828
ROE0.7%1.6%
c vo cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng)
2010 (d bo)
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment413,181,339,285 413,181,339,285207,579,981,622 207,579,981,622113,133,341,257 113,133,341,257320,713,322,879 320,713,322,879
92,468,016,406 92,468,016,40619,553,778,498 29,262,920,221 846,923,031 30,109,843,252 36,682,354
63,205,096,185 62,358,173,15415,801,274,046 15,589,543,28947,403,822,139 46,768,629,866
582,655,563 582,655,56346,821,166,576 46,185,974,302
0.9877 0.9875
2009 Forecast
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment
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0 52,421,560,529 52,421,560,5290 413,181,339,285 413,181,339,2850 178,625,630,506 178,625,630,5060 26,669,572,344 26,669,572,3440 670,898,102,664 670,898,102,6640 744,130,449,779 744,130,449,7790 1,415,028,552,443 1,415,028,552,4430
00 102,026,188,943 102,026,188,943
-178,893,623,081 181,988,988,356 3,666,333,468 185,655,321,825 158,798,0680 250,791,655,629 250,791,655,6290 534,806,832,928 538,473,166,396
-214,672,347,697 756,496,030,196 4,399,600,162 760,895,630,358 190,557,6820 689,038,172 689,038,1720 757,185,068,369 761,584,668,531
1,291,991,901,296 1,300,057,834,927
-322,008,521,545 64,310,614,303 6,599,400,243 70,910,014,546 285,836,5230 -20,176,415,375 -20,176,415,375
46,821,166,576 44,686,818,541 46,185,974,302 44,051,626,267 46,158,462,5370 19,550,299,805 19,550,299,8050 108,371,317,273 114,335,525,2430 1,400,363,218,570 1,414,393,360,170
14,665,333,874 635,192,273-700,909,158,449 -700,273,966,176
3,666,333,468 158,798,0684,399,600,162 190,557,682
6,599,400,243 285,836,52314,665,333,874 635,192,273
8 v d kin nm 20102010
Modified413,181,339,285207,579,981,622113,133,341,257320,713,322,87992,468,016,406
30,146,525,60662,321,490,80015,580,372,70046,741,118,100
582,655,56346,158,462,537
0.9875
Forecast:
Modified
52,421,560,529
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413,181,339,285178,625,630,50626,669,572,344
670,898,102,664744,130,449,779
1,415,028,552,443
102,026,188,943185,820,997,834250,791,655,629538,638,842,406761,094,441,570
689,038,172761,783,479,742
1,300,422,322,14871,208,231,363
-20,176,415,37544,024,114,50219,550,299,805
114,606,230,2951,415,028,552,443
Modified Cty tng ng2010 CNT 20081.25 1.042.31 22.96
365.0 66.490.29 2.60
91.9% 84.0%12.35 1.603.07 1.46
77.6%11.31% 4.00%3.30% 1.35%40.78% 9.19%
ROE0.7%
40.78%40.78% ROE tng l do t l li rng v h s khuch i vn tng.16.64%
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ln 100%
with the 37.503.864.550 of FA.08 full capacity sales.
he target FA/Sales ratio.les growth rate.
178,625,630,506 = 2.31
17,995,702,931 = 22.96160,629,927,576
ca cng ty c quy m tng
GE (Web Appendix 17A)
. The same is true for fixed assets. Suppose the firm isheir existing fixed assets. Remember, sales for 2008e that the firm was operating at 90% of full capacity. Weratio.
e industry average, then it would free
g ty c quy m tng ng CNT l 22.96; iu nyheo vng quay hng tn kho ca cng ty CNT
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, then it would free up this much cash:
sales/3651,132,003,669 = 843.0231,132,003,669 = 365.00
y, vy khon phi thu lnh gim bt ch khng iu chnh
nh c quy m tng ng CNT; cgy cn 547 ngy; nng cng sut
ban u chy li vng lp 4 ln.
u cho s liu cao hn sau khi iuied c gi nguyn khng i so
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4th Pass413,181,339,285207,579,981,622113,133,341,257320,713,322,879
92,468,016,40682,058,001,25710,410,015,1492,602,503,7877,807,511,362
582,655,563
7,224,855,7980.9254
4th Pass
52,421,560,529954,304,574,511178,625,630,506
26,669,572,3441,212,021,337,890
1,063,043,499,6842,275,064,837,574
102,026,188,943410,539,122,714250,791,655,629763,356,967,286
1,030,756,191,426689,038,172
1,031,445,229,598
1,794,802,196,884475,700,856,147
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-20,176,415,3755,090,507,763
19,550,299,805480,165,248,340
2,274,967,445,224
97,392,350198,723,437,459
24,348,08829,217,70543,826,55897,392,350
4th pass1.592.31
843.00.18
78.9%4.741.13
77.6%1.9%0.3%1.6%
4th Pass413,181,339,285207,579,981,622113,133,341,257320,713,322,879
92,468,016,40630,146,525,60662,321,490,80015,580,372,70046,741,118,100
582,655,56346,158,462,537
0.9875
4th Pass
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52,421,560,529413,181,339,285178,625,630,506
26,669,572,344670,898,102,664744,130,449,779
1,415,028,552,443
102,026,188,943185,814,119,893250,791,655,629538,631,964,464761,086,188,040
689,038,172761,775,226,213
1,300,407,190,677
71,195,851,069-20,176,415,37544,024,114,50219,550,299,805
114,593,850,0011,415,001,040,678
27,511,765-700,246,454,411
6,877,9418,253,530
12,380,29427,511,765
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D bo nm 2011
Nm Doanh thu thun2005 342,782,540,005
2006 710,645,070,1282007 366,102,075,5142008 368,911,910,076
Theo tnh cht ca chu k kinh t, khi bc ra khi khng hong v c tn hiu phc hi, ngnthng l nhng ngnh ngh hi phc nhanh. c bit, hiu ng kch cu m cc chnh ph, trkhai u hng mnh vo u t xy dng c bn, vn ng gp t trng ln trong tng trn
Chnh ph d kin tc tng trng nm 2009 t 4.7%, nm 2010 t 6.5%
D c ci thin trong na u nm 2009, lnh vc xy dng s vn gp nhiu kh khn.Na u nm 2009, xy dng tng trng 8,7% so vi cng k nm trc.Nguyn nhn khin lnh vc ny tng trng l li sut cho vay mc thp.(Theo bo co The Vietnam Business Forecast Report Quarter 4/2009 ca Business Monitor I
D bo doanh thu qua cc nm :
Nm Doanh thu d bo thay i so vi nm 20082009 401,007,246,253 8.70%2010 413,181,339,285 12.00%2011 461,139,887,595 25.00%2012 483,274,602,200 31.00%2013 505,409,316,804 37.00%
D bao cho nam 2009
Can be used to get an estimate of funds needed if ratios remain constant.
A* 2,031,307,890,691 AFN =
368,911,910,076 = 507,826,972,673
461,139,887,595 = 431,740,924,553S 92,227,977,519L* 315,015,932,653M 0.705%RR -82.05%
THE AFN EQUATION (Section 17.3)
(A*/S0)S
S0
S1
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25.000%
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS: INCREASE ITEMS AT THE SALES GROWTH RATEKEY INPUT DATA: Raise AFN as foll
25.00% Notes
8.00% LT debtTax rate 25.00% Com. Stk.Interest rate on all debt 10.50%
Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases
2008 with sales 1st PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 461,139,887,595Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 231,674,086,631Khu hao 101,011,911,837 126,264,889,796Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 357,938,976,428EBIT 82,560,728,934 103,200,911,168Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 10,836,095,673EBT 3,573,580,484 92,364,815,495Thu 972,439,576 23,091,203,874Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 69,273,611,621
C tc 520,228,182 650,285,227
Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 68,623,326,394Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906
Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 58,506,205,948Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 1,065,072,069,766Tn kho 159,487,170,095 199,358,962,619Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 29,765,147,705Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,352,702,386,038
Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 1,186,432,477,326Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 2,539,134,863,364
N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 113,868,514,445Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 279,901,401,371Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 754,652,527,253Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 769,015,818Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,937,393,711
Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,726,589,920,964Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848
The AFN equation can be used to estimate the maximum growth rate without resorting to exteras follows:
gS = S/S0 =
Sales Growth Rate, gs
Dividend growth rate, gd
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -22,518,320,731Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 66,488,978,359Cc qu 17,455,624,826 21,819,531,033Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 452,109,324,508Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,178,699,245,472
AFN 360,435,617,892AFN ly tch 360,435,617,892
Notes 25.000% 90,108,904,473LT debt 30.000% 108,130,685,367
Com. Stk. 45.000% 162,196,028,051100.000% 360,435,617,892
Cc t s2008
T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18T l n vay 81.1%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7%
T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 1.14% 0.18 4.39
Bng cn i k ton v kt qu kinh doanh d bo iu chnh (t s cn
Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Doanh thu 368,911,910,076 461,139,887,595Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 231,674,086,631Khu hao 101,011,911,837 126,264,889,796Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 357,938,976,428
EBIT 82,560,728,934 103,200,911,168Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 carried over 10,836,095,673EBT 3,573,580,484 92,364,815,495Thu 972,439,576 23,091,203,874Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 69,273,611,621
C tc 520,228,182 650,285,227Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 68,623,326,394Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906
Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass
Ti sn
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
T s vng quay ti
sn
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Tin 46,804,964,758 58,506,205,948Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 modified 461,139,887,595Tn kho 159,487,170,095 modified 199,358,962,619Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 29,765,147,705Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 748,770,203,866Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 modified 830,502,734,128Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,579,272,937,995
N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 113,868,514,445Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 279,901,401,371Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 754,652,527,253Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 769,015,818Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,937,393,711Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,726,589,920,964
Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -22,518,320,731Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 66,488,978,359Cc qu 17,455,624,826 21,819,531,033Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 452,109,324,508Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,178,699,245,472
AFN -599,426,307,478AFN ly tch -599,426,307,478
Notes 25.000% -149,856,576,869LT debt 30.000% -179,827,892,243
Com. Stk. 45.000% -269,741,838,365100.000% -599,426,307,478
Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh nm 2008Income Statements D bo
Thc t nm 2008 4th PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 461,139,887,595Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 231,674,086,631Khu hao 101,011,911,837 126,264,889,796Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 357,938,976,428EBIT 82,560,728,934 103,200,911,168
Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 38,284,141,517EBT 3,573,580,484 64,916,769,651Thu 972,439,576 16,229,192,413Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 48,687,577,238C tc 520,228,182 650,285,227Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 48,037,292,011Retention Ratio 0.800 0.9866
Bng cn i k ton nm 2008 v d kin nm 2011Balance Sheet Actual 2008 2011
4th Pass
Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 58,506,205,948
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
prior*(1+gS)
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Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 461,139,887,595Tn kho 159,487,170,095 199,358,962,619Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 29,765,147,705Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 748,770,203,866Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 830,502,734,128Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,579,272,937,995
N v vn ch s hu Phi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 113,868,514,445Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 216,172,543,163Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 279,901,401,371Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 609,942,458,980Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 797,516,295,965Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 769,015,818Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 798,285,311,782Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,408,227,770,762Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 125,841,012,956
Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -22,518,320,731Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 45,902,943,976Cc qu 17,455,624,826 21,819,531,033Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 171,045,167,233Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 1,579,272,937,995
4th Pass2008 2011
T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60 1.23Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31 2.31K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0 365.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18 0.29T l n vay 81.1% 89.2%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30 9.23T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05 2.70Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6% 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7% 10.56%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1% 3.08%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7% 28.46%
T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30
Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 10.56% 0.29 9.23Du Pont ROE, modified = 10.56% 0.29 9.23
Cng Ty CNT = 4.00% 2.60 1.60
Nm Doanh thu Hng tn kho Khon phi thu20042005 342,782,540,005 125,158,057,891 169,226,476,5822006 710,645,070,128 147,220,462,770 238,967,055,6592007 366,102,075,514 94,074,085,476 895,800,089,0222008 368,911,910,076 159,487,170,095 851,401,405,814
T s vng quay tisn
USING REGRESSION TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL FORECASTS (Section 17.5)
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2009 461,139,887,595 ? ?
D bo hng tn khoRegression Prior
Forecast Forecast DifferenceInventories 132,336,827,432 199,358,962,619 -67,022,135,187R-Square 0.84
D bo khon phi thuRegression Prior
Forecast Forecast DifferenceReceivables 524,696,741,692 461,139,887,595 63,556,854,097R-Square 0.99
iu chnh cng sut hot ng ti a cho cc ti sn c nh hin c t 70% nh nm 2008 l2008 Sales 368,911,910,0762009 Pred. Sales 461,139,887,595Percentage of capacity 0.70
2008 Fixed Assets 949,145,981,861
Full capacity sales = 527,017,014,394 , which is the sales achievable in 2008 wiTarget FA/Sales = 1.80 , which is the 2008 FA divided by the 200Required FA = 830,502,734,128 , which is forecasted 2009 sales times thePrevious Forecast = 1,186,432,477,326 , which assumed that FA grow at the salePotential savings = 355,929,743,198
Potential Inventory Reduction based on Turnover
VNE's inv turnover ratio, 4th pass: 2.31CNT Company average ratio: 22.96
Sales/Inventories, based on 4th pass = 461,139,887,595 /Inventories if achieved industry average turnover:
461,139,887,595 /Difference:
Potential Receivables Reduction based on DSO
S liu d bo hng tn kho v d bo khon phi thu theo m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh ln hcng ty c quy m tng ng nn khng iu chnh cc khon s liu ny theo s liu d b
FORECASTING FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS WHEN FINANCIAL RATIOS CHANG
It is not necessarily appropriate to assume that current assets should grow at the same rate as sales.operating at full capacity. This means they could produce more, hence have higher sales, with their e100,015,126,462, while fixed assets were 37,503,864,550 million. Now, suppose we determine that ththis information to calculate the firm's full capacity sales and the target fixed assets-to-sales ratio.
If LTC could reduce its inventories to the point where its inventory turnover ratio was the same as the ithis much cash:
Nhn xt: vng quay hng tn kho ca VNE l 2,31 nh hn vng quay hng tn kho ca cngcho thy cng ty ang nm gi hng tn kho khng hp l nn iu chnh d liu nm 2008 th
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If LTC could reduce its receivables to the point where its DSO was the same as the industry average,
LTC's DSO, 4th pass: 843.02Company PTC average ratio: 365.00Receivables, based on 4th pass = 1,065,072,069,766
DSO = A/R /DSO = 1,065,072,069,766 /
A/R if achieved Company PTC DSO: 461,139,887,595 /Difference: 603,932,182,171
Nhn xt: iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO ca cng VNE t 843,023 ngy v cn 547 ng547*1.098.649.990= 600.961.544.384 ( v hai cng ty ny chnh lch qu nhiu nn ch iu chnbng cng ty CNT)
Nh vy, sau khi cn c vo cc t s ca nm 2008, so snh vi t s ca cng ty cng ngnth , hai khon iu chnh trong d bo l iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO t 843,023 ngti sn c nh t 80% ln 100%. Thay th, cc s liu iu chnh ny vo li bng d bo ban
S dng d bo tn kho v khon phi thu theo phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh vi doanh thu chnh theo t s ca cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng PTC, ct iu chnh modifieln d bo th 4
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ti chnh, xy dng v BSong c Vit Nam ang trin
GDP.
ternational.(BMI))
-78,753,983,163 2,667,935,044
- (L*/S0)S - MS
1(RR)
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ws:
25% 286,351,181,142
30% 368,911,910,07645% 0.78 0.5
100%
2011 (d bo)
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment461,139,887,595 461,139,887,595231,674,086,631 231,674,086,631126,264,889,796 126,264,889,796357,938,976,428 357,938,976,428103,200,911,168 103,200,911,168
81,693,362,363 92,529,458,035 3,538,343,757 96,067,801,793 153,254,51410,671,453,132 7,133,109,3752,667,863,283 1,783,277,3448,003,589,849 5,349,832,031
650,285,227 650,285,227
7,353,304,622 4,699,546,8040.9188 0.8784
2011 Forecast
Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment
58,506,205,948 58,506,205,9481,065,072,069,766 1,065,072,069,766
199,358,962,619 199,358,962,61929,765,147,705 29,765,147,705
1,352,702,386,038 1,352,702,386,038
1,186,432,477,326 1,186,432,477,3262,539,134,863,364 2,539,134,863,364
113,868,514,445 113,868,514,445
90,108,904,473 450,991,515,910 15,317,505,443 466,309,021,353 663,439,455279,901,401,371 279,901,401,371844,761,431,726 860,078,937,169
108,130,685,367 1,079,299,063,260 18,381,006,532 1,097,680,069,792 796,127,345769,015,818 769,015,818
1,080,068,079,078 1,098,449,085,610
1,924,829,510,804 1,958,528,022,779162,196,028,051 548,515,163,899 27,571,509,797 576,086,673,697 1,194,191,018
al financing. First, we define the sales growth rate
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-22,518,320,731