Bai mau phan tich chung khoan VNE-TranThienThanhTruc-K6404H203

8/9/2019 Bai mau phan tich chung khoan VNE-TranThienThanhTruc-K6404H203

1/107

TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203

BNG CN I K TON

CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007TNG CNG TI SN 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,811

1,082,161,908,830 1,049,679,548,824

46,804,964,758 43,612,980,38446,804,964,758 43,612,980,384

656,249,999 0660,190,599

-3,940,600851,401,405,814 895,800,089,02290,055,181,917 92,755,324,639

679,122,695,871 775,170,808,343

82,447,773,183 27,873,956,040-224,245,157

159,487,170,095 94,074,085,476162,321,635,138 94,074,085,476

-2,834,465,04323,812,118,164 16,192,393,942

1,912,944,5302,107,443,350 11,251,741,923

245,804,007

19,545,926,277 4,940,652,019949,145,981,861 770,182,837,98721,759,091,059 143,902,816,036

143,902,816,036

21,759,091,059

795,497,025,061 209,478,923,652518,877,927,103 33,119,960,666617,681,520,768 63,239,372,914-98,803,593,665 -30,119,412,248

0 0

32,052,653,615 034,260,971,787 423,836,320-2,208,318,172 -423,836,320

244,566,444,343 176,358,962,986

0 0

Ti sn ngn hn

Tin v cc khon tng ng tinTinCc khon tng ng tin

Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hnu t ngn hnD phng gim gi u t ngn hn

Cc khon phi thu ngn hnPhi thu khch hngTr trc cho ngi bnPhi thu ni b ngn hn

Phi thu theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dngCc khon phi thu khcD phng phi thu ngn hn kh i

Hng tn khoHng tn khoD phng gim gi hng tn kho

Ti sn ngn hn khcChi ph tr trc ngn hnThu GTGT c khu trThu v cc khon khc phi thu Nh nc

Ti sn ngn hn khcTi sn di hnCc khon phi thu di hn

Phi thu di hn ca khch hngVn kinh doanh n v trc thucPhi thu di hn ni bPhi thu di hn khcD phng phi thu di hn kh i

Ti sn c nhTi sn c nh hu hnh

Nguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k

Ti sn c nh thu ti chnhNguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k

Ti sn c nh v hnhNguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k

Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang

Bt ng sn u t


2/107

91,444,850,573 409,005,355,617278,013,135,990

64,631,491,155 138,166,729,58826,921,999,997

-108,640,579 -7,174,509,96140,445,015,168 7,795,742,682

39,658,274,227 6,999,514,904

786,740,941 796,227,778

T NG CNG NGU N V N 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,8111,647,682,134,637 1,447,571,057,515

675,898,544,090 718,504,335,221360,882,611,437 534,616,340,72891,094,811,556 56,690,077,80769,178,223,288 25,658,031,989

2,814,496,028 1,621,309,29512,309,156,901 1,586,923,30693,596,045,292 19,413,462,537

44,070,724,362 77,553,186,1381,952,475,226 1,365,003,421

971,783,590,547 729,066,722,294

971,168,377,893 728,978,298,936

615,212,654 88,423,358

317,306,620,174 372,291,329,296311,141,659,538 369,537,879,539319,999,999,968 319,999,999,968

2,849,765,610 2,725,000,000327,902,789

-21,192,324,984 -17,943,039,998

11,290,664,190 3,002,940,9655,761,969,499 1,040,947,6835,311,734,896 1,961,993,282

216,959,795-2,134,348,035 61,752,978,604

Nguyn giGi tr hao mn lu k

Cc khon u t ti chnh di hnu t vo cng ty conu t vo cng ty lin kt, lin doanhu t di hn khcD phng gim gi u t ti chnh di hn

Ti sn di hn khc

Chi ph tr trc di hnTi sn thu thu nhp hon liTi sn di hn khc

Li th thng mi

N phi trN ngn hn

Vay v n ngn hnPhi tr ngi bnNgi mua tr tin trc

Thu v cc khon phi np Nh ncPhi tr ngi lao ngChi ph phi trPhi tr ni bPhi tr theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dngCc khon phi tr, phi np ngn hn khcD phng phi tr ngn hn

N di hnPhi tr di hn ngi bnPhi tr di hn ni b

Phi tr di hn khcVay v n di hnThu thu nhp hon li phi trD phng tr cp mt vic lmD phng phi tr di hn

Vn ch s huVn ch s hu

Vn u t ca ch s huThng d vn c phnVn khc ca ch s hu

C phiu quC phiu u iChnh lch nh gi li ti snChnh lch t gi hi oiCc Qu

Qu u t pht trinQu d phng ti chnhQu khc thuc vn ch s hu

Li nhun sau thu cha phn phiNgun vn u t XDCB


3/107

6,164,960,636 2,753,449,7576,164,960,636 2,753,449,757

66,319,135,880

Ngun kinh ph v qu khcQu khen thng, phc liNgun kinh phNgun kinh ph hnh thnh TSC

Vn c ng thiu sCC CH TIU NGOI BNGTi sn thu ngoiVt t, hng ha nhn gi h, nhn gia cng

Hng ha nhn bn h, nhn k gi, k ccN kh i x lNgoi t cc loiD ton chi s nghip d n


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n v tnh : VN

Nm 2006932,831,682,909470,275,026,930

62,512,894,57262,512,894,572

0

238,967,055,659141,929,118,167

85,987,920,370

11,098,354,661-48,337,539

147,220,462,770147,220,462,770

21,574,613,9293,930,623,1035,762,261,399

2,834,635

11,878,894,792462,556,655,979

21,523,320,81021,523,320,810

361,980,497,456191,972,153,365302,336,768,265

-110,364,614,9000

23,789,461,32925,317,539,937-1,528,078,608

146,218,882,762

0


5/107

63,914,671,389

61,210,571,3902,704,099,999

15,138,166,324

14,873,164,823

265,001,501

932,831,682,909729,575,411,138475,707,916,309270,474,143,255

71,220,131,74132,595,161,285

4,750,402,25916,678,079,68644,978,388,397

21,616,697,50413,394,912,182

253,867,494,829

252,180,079,873

390,704,4421,296,710,514

177,563,793,675174,339,904,525149,999,999,985

143,522,066

-142,958,1271,608,493,0721,198,728,455

318,776,99590,987,622

22,730,847,529


6/107

3,223,889,1503,223,889,150

25,692,478,096


7/107


BO CO KT QU KINH DOANHn v tnh : VN

CH TIU NM 2008 NM 2007 NM 2006

Tng doanh thu hot ng kinh doanh 369,266,034,140 366,102,075,514 710,757,779,071

Cc khon gim tr doanh thu 354,124,064 112,708,943Doanh thu thun 368,911,910,076 366,102,075,514 710,645,070,128Gi vn hng bn 317,288,851,824 313,890,602,487 617,682,232,680Li nhun gp 51,623,058,252 52,211,473,027 92,962,837,448Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 28,420,082,450 22,262,142,415 4,893,817,909Chi ph ti chnh 80,560,893,309 26,769,974,808 30,045,393,321

Trong : Chi ph li vay 78,987,148,450 18,623,534,390 29,402,599,228Chi ph bn hng 2,015,859,406 414,910,768 2,114,949,141Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 30,909,753,892 16,217,992,990 39,061,440,041Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh -33,443,365,905 31,070,736,876 26,634,872,854Thu nhp khc 68,264,125,387 55,793,718,418 63,917,087,090Chi ph khc 31,247,178,998 23,524,032,083 45,207,540,377Li nhun khc 37,016,946,389 32,269,686,335 18,709,546,713Li nhun hoc l trong cng ty lin kt 1,937,887,144Tng li nhun k tan trc thu 3,573,580,484 63,340,423,211 47,282,306,711

Chi ph thu TNDN hin hnhChi ph thu TNDN hon li

Chi ph thu TNDN 972,439,576 1,415,691,342 4,598,056,766Li ch ca c ng thiu s -108,150,218

Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip 2,601,140,908 61,924,731,869 42,792,400,163Li c bn trn mi c phiu 1,952 2,846C tc trn mi c phiu 1,500 2,800


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TNG CNG TY C PHN XY DNG IN VIT NAM (VNE)

TRN THIN THANH TRC, MSSV: K6404H203

BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T

CH TIU NM 2008 NM 2007

Tng li nhun k ton trc thu 414,821,509 63,340,423,211

47,915,721,328 18,623,534,390

108,358,429,829 -65,977,193,170

-335,708,395,389 -664,025,655,983

1,001,862,464 490,181,818

-939,570,999 800,000,000

102,342,578

-15,273,359,150 -227,916,146,118

223,601,738,031

3,692,551,866 1,728,402,172

-123,522,830,599 -888,923,218,111

58,145,289,995 151,051,040,000

-200,000,000 -17,943,040,000

787,380,536,869 1,247,583,115,340

-814,916,783,005 -400,995,726,657

-32,407,863,197 -9,610,816,898

-1,998,819,338 970,084,571,785

-17,163,220,108 15,184,160,504

Chi ph khu hao ti sn c nh

D phng gim gi cc khon u t ngn hn, di hn

Li, l chnh lch t gi hi oi cha thc hin

Li, l t hot ng u t

Trong : Chi ph li vay

Li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh trc thay i vn lu ng

Tng, gim cc khon phi thu

Tng, gim hng tn khoTng, gim cc khon phi tr (Khng k li vay phi tr, thu TNDNphi np)

Tng, gim chi ph tr trc

Tin li vay tr

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip np

Tin thu khc t hot ng kinh doanh

Tin chi khc cho hot ng kinh doanh

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng kinh doanh

LU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG U TMua sm TSC

Tin thu t thanh l, nhng bn TSC v cc ti sn di hn khc

Tin chi cho vay, mua cc cng c n ca n v khc

Tin thu hi cho vay, bn li cc cng c n ca n v khc

Tin chi u t gp vn vo n v khc

Tin thu hi u t gp vn vo n v khc

Tin thu li cho vay, c tc v li nhun c chia

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng u tLU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG TI CHNH

Tin thu t pht hnh c phiu, nhn vn gp ca ch s hun c tr v n g p c o c c c s u, mua c p u c a oan

nghip pht hnh

Tin vay ngn hn, di hn nhn c

Tin chi tr n gc vay

Tin chi tr n thu ti chnh

C tc, li nhun tr cho ch s hu

Chi t cc qu ca doanh nghip

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng ti chnh

Lu chuyn tin thun trong k


9/107

63,912,129,558 28,450,997,606

56,055,310 -22,177,721

46,804,964,760 43,612,980,389

Tin v tng ng tin u k

nh hng ca thay i t gi hi oi quy i ngoi t

Tin v tng ng tin cui k


10/107

n v tnh : VN

NM 2006

47,282,306,711

29,402,599,228

37,408,019,856

-226,284,168,874

2,790,338,712

-1,694,999,999

253,598,957

-32,571,497,247

7,498,931,940

-250,007,796,511

270,441,200

300,000,000

637,175,313,776

-503,121,329,015

-275,700,000

-1,465,942,060

132,882,783,901

-79,716,992,754


11/107

142,430,803,454

-200,916,125

62,512,894,575


12/107


BNG CN I K TON

CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007TNG CNG TI SN 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,811Ti sn ngn hn 1,082,161,908,830 1,049,679,548,824

Tin v cc khon tng ng tin 46,804,964,758 43,612,980,384Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn 656,249,999 0Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 851,401,405,814 895,800,089,022Hng tn kho 159,487,170,095 94,074,085,476Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 16,192,393,942Ti sn di hn 949,145,981,861 770,182,837,987Cc khon phi thu di hn 21,759,091,059 143,902,816,036Ti sn c nh thun 795,497,025,061 209,478,923,652Bt ng sn u t 0 0Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn 91,444,850,573 409,005,355,617

Ti sn di hn khc 40,445,015,168 7,795,742,682T NG CNG NGU N V N 2,031,307,890,691 1,819,862,386,811N phi tr 1,647,682,134,637 1,447,571,057,515N ngn hn 675,898,544,090 718,504,335,221Vay v n ngn hn 360,882,611,437 534,616,340,728Phi tr ngi bn ngn hn 91,094,811,556 56,690,077,807Phi tr ngn hn khc 223,921,121,097 127,197,916,686N di hn 971,783,590,547 729,066,722,294Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 728,978,298,936Phi tr ngi bn di hn 0 0

Phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 88,423,358Vn ch s hu 317,306,620,174 372,291,329,296Vn u t ca ch s hu 319,999,999,968 319,999,999,968C phiu thng v thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -15,218,039,998Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 61,752,978,604Cc qu 17,455,624,826 5,756,390,722

66,319,135,880Vn c ng thiu s


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n v tnh : VN

Nm 2006932,831,682,909470,275,026,930

62,512,894,5720238,967,055,659147,220,462,770

21,574,613,929462,556,655,979

21,523,320,810361,980,497,456

063,914,671,389

15,138,166,324932,831,682,909729,575,411,138475,707,916,309270,474,143,255

71,220,131,741134,013,641,313253,867,494,829252,180,079,873

0

1,687,414,956177,563,793,675149,999,999,985

143,522,06622,587,889,4024,832,382,222

25,692,478,096


14/107


BO CO KT QU KINH DOANH

CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007Tng doanh thu hot ng kinh doanh 369,266,034,140 366,102,075,514

Cc khon gim tr doanh thu 354,124,064 0Doanh thu thun 368,911,910,076 366,102,075,514Gi vn hng bn 317,288,851,824 313,890,602,487Li nhun gp 51,623,058,252 52,211,473,027Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 28,420,082,450 22,262,142,415Chi ph ti chnh cha k li vay 1,573,744,859 8,146,440,418Chi ph bn hng 2,015,859,406 414,910,768Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 30,909,753,892 16,217,992,990Thu nhp khc 68,264,125,387 55,793,718,418Chi ph khc 31,247,178,998 23,524,032,083

Li nhun hoc l trong cng ty lin kt 0 0Thu nhp trc thu, li vay v khu hao (EBITDA) 183,572,640,771 112,507,206,169Khu hao 101,011,911,837 30,543,248,568Thu nhp trc thu v li vay (EBIT) 82,560,728,934 81,963,957,601Chi ph li vay 78,987,148,450 18,623,534,390Thu nhp trc thu (EBT) 3,573,580,484 63,340,423,211Thu thu nhp doanh nghip 972,439,576 1,415,691,342Li ch ca c ng thiu s 0 0Li rng 2,601,140,908 61,924,731,869Li c bn trn mi c phiu 0 1,952

383,035,388,979CP96,684,207,837DT78,987,148,450li vay

101,011,911,837KH286,351,181,142466,350,241,429


15/107

Nm 2006710,757,779,071

112,708,943710,645,070,128617,682,232,680

92,962,837,4484,893,817,909

642,794,0932,114,949,141

39,061,440,04163,917,087,09045,207,540,377

1,937,887,144188,577,599,447111,892,693,508

76,684,905,93929,402,599,22847,282,306,7114,598,056,766-108,150,218

42,792,400,1632,846


16/107


CH TIU Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 20061. Cc t s thanh khon

T s hin hnh 1.60 1.46 0.99T s thanh ton nhanh 1.37 1.33 0.682. Cc t s qun l ti snVng quay khon phi thu 0.43 0.41 2.97K thu tin bnh qun 842.37 893.10 122.74Vng quay khon phi tr 3.48 5.54 8.67K tr tin bnh qun 104.79 65.92 42.09T s vng quay hng tn kho 2.31 3.89 4.83S ngy tn kho bnh qun 183.47 109.39 87.00T s vng quay TSC 0.46 1.75 1.96T s vng quay tng TS 0.18 0.20 0.763. Cc t s qun l nT s n trn vn 5.19 3.89 4.11T s n trn tng ti sn 0.81 0.80 0.78T s n di hn trn tng vn di hn 0.95 1.02 0.91H s khuych i vn 6.40 4.89 5.25T s thanh ton li vay (TIE) 1.05 4.40 2.614. T s kh nng sinh liT l li gp 13.99% 14.26% 13.08%

T l li rng (ROS) 0.71% 16.91% 6.02%T sut sinh li trn ti sn (ROA) 0.13% 3.40% 4.59%T sut sinh li trn vn ch s hu (ROE) 0.82% 16.63% 24.10%5. Phng trnh Duponta.T l li rng 0.71% 16.91% 6.02%b.T s vng quay ti sn 18.16% 20.12% 76.18%c. H s khuch i vn 6.40 4.89 5.25ROE = (a) *( b) * ( c) 0.82% 16.63% 24.10%6. T s gi tr th trngS lng c phiu ang lu hnh 32,000,000 32,000,000 15,000,000

Thu nhp trn mi c phn (EPS) 0 1,952 2,846C tc trn mi c phn ( DPS ) 0 1,500 2,800Gi tr s sch mi c phn 9,916 11,634 11,838Dng tin mi c phn ( CFPS ) 3,238 2,890 10,312T s gi/thu nhp (P/E)T s gi/dng tinT s gi tr th trng/gi tr s sch


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Cng thc tnh

=TSL/N ngn hn=(TSL-Tn kho)/N ngn hn

=Doanh thu/Khon phi thu bq=Khon phi thu /Doanh thu bq mt ngy=Gi vn hng bn/Phi tr ngi bn bq=Phi tr ngi bn/Gi vn bq mt ngy=Doanh thu/Hng tn kho=Hng tn kho/Gi vn bq mt ngy=Doanh thu/ TSC thun=Doanh thu/Tng TS

=Tng n/Vn ch s hu=Tng n/Tng TS=N di hn/(N di hn + vn c ng)=Tng ti sn/Vn ch s hu=EBIT/Li vay

=Li gp/Doanh thu thun

=Li nhun sau thu/Doanh thu thun=Li nhun sau thu/Tng ti sn=Li nhun sau thu/Vn ch s hu

=Li nhun sau thu/doanh thu thun=Doanh thu thun/tng ti sn=Tng ti sn/ vn ch s hu

=Li rng / EPS

=Li rng / C phiu thng ang lu hnh=C tc tr cho c ng thng/C phiu thng ang lu hnh=Gi tr VCSH/S c phiu ang lu hnh=(Li rng+KH )/C phiu thng ang lu hnh=Gi th trng mi c phn/Thu nhp trn c phn=Gi th trng mi c phn/Thu nhp trn mi c phn=Gi th trng mi c phn/Gi tr s sch trn mi c phn


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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.68R Square 0.47Adjusted R 0.41Standard E 0.03Observatio 20

ANOVAdf SS MS F ignificance F

Regression 1 0.01 0.01 16.54 0Residual 19 0.02 0Total 20 0.03

Coefficients andard Err t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%ower 95.0 pper 95.0

Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

X Variable 0.9 0.22 4.07 0 0.44 1.37 0.44 1.37

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

bservatio Predicted Y Residuals

1 0.02 0.022 0.01 -0.033 0.01 -0.064 -0.02 05 -0.02 0.06

6 0.03 0.017 -0.02 -0.028 -0.04 -0.019 -0.03 0.06

10 0.01 0.0311 -0.02 -0.0212 0.02 0.0213 0.04 014 0.04 015 -0.01 -0.0216 -0.02 -0.02

17 0.04 0.0118 0.04 019 0.02 0.0120 0.03 0

-10.00%

-

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

X

Y


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-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

Column B

Column B

X Variable 1

Y


20/107

X Y% Thay i VN-INDEX % Thay i gi

1.88% 4%0.64% -2.60%1.22% -4.94%

-1.68% -1.22%-2.07% 3.80%2.91% 3.95%

-1.92% -3.80%-4.56% -4.82%-2.83% 3.75%1.35% 3.90%

-2.24% -3.75%2.08% 3.90%4.60% 4.05%4.28% 4.23%

-0.65% -2.74%-2.67% -3.95%3.89% 4.11%4.37% 4.29%2.69% 2.94%3.15% 3.03%


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DNG TIN

CH TIU NM 2008 NM 2007Ti sn lu ng hot ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,049,679,548,824

N phi tr hot ng 1,647,682,134,637 1,447,571,057,515Khu hao 101,011,911,837 30,543,248,568Thu nhp trc thu, li vay v khu EBITDA 183,572,640,771 112,507,206,169Thu nhp trc thu v li vay EBIT 82,560,728,934 81,963,957,601Vn lu ng hot ng thun NOWC 742,677,608,014 849,599,160,389Tng vn hat ng thun TOC 1,538,174,633,075 1,059,078,084,041Li nhun hot ng thun sau thu NOPAT 81,588,289,358 80,548,266,259Dng tin hot ng OCF 182,600,201,195 111,091,514,827Thay i vn lu ng NOWC -106,921,552,375 606,132,520,442

Thay i TSC FA 588,279,283,321 -263,991,098,968Dng tin t do FCF -298,757,529,751 -231,049,906,647Dng tin t ch n FCFD 10,530,798,784 -722,316,882,146Dng tin ch ch s hu FCFE -309,288,328,535 491,266,975,499Li nhun trn vn u t ROIC 5.30% 7.61%Chi ph vn WACC 7.95% 7.26%Gi tr th trng gia tng MVAGi tr kinh t gia tng EVA (40,733,312,327) 3,653,155,112

Nhn xt : FCF nm 2008 < 0 do u t nhiu ti sn c nhNm 2008 ROIC < WACC , cng ty khng t c sut sinh li k nh vngNm 2006 v 2007, ROIC > WACC , cng ty t c sut sinh li nh k vng


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NM 2006470,275,026,930729,575,411,138111,892,693,508 Ly khu hao ly k lm khu hao nm188,577,599,447

76,684,905,939243,466,639,947 =TSL cn thit cho hng sxkd - Tng n ngn hn ko chu li605,447,137,403 =NOWC+TSC thun

72,086,849,173 =EBIT-thu183,979,542,681 =NOPAT+KH

=NOWC ck-NOWC k

=NG cui k - NG u k=OCF-FA-NWC=li vay - vay mn thun=FCF - FCFD

11.91% =NOPAT/TOC6.67%

31,703,472,640 EVA=NOPAT-WACC*TOC


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ny )


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Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng

1. M hnh nh gi ti sn vn ( CAPM )

Krf : T sut phi ri ro, s dng tri phiu kho bc k hn 5 nmNm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Krf 9.00% 7.87% 7.15%H s Beta b = 0.9Phn b ri ro th trng k vng ( Km - Krf ) = 7.88 %Ke = Krf + ( Km - K rf )*b

Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Krf 9.00% 7.87% 7.15%( Km - K rf ) 7.88% 7.88% 7.88% Cn c vo xp hng tn dng

b 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%Ke 9.07% 7.94% 7.22%

2. Li sut tri phiu cng phn b ri ro RP ( chn phng php ny )

Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Kd 9.00% 7.87% 7.15%RP 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%Ke = Kd + RP 13.00% 11.87% 11.15%


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Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun WACC

Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006Kd 9.00% 7.87% 7.15% Vay v n ngn hKe 13.00% 11.87% 11.15% Vay v n di hnT trng n 0.81 0.77 0.75 Vn ch s huT trng c phiu thng 0.19 0.23 0.25 TngThu sut TNDN 25.00% 25.00% 28.00%WACC 7.95% 7.26% 6.67%


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Nm 2008 Nm 2007 Nm 2006360,882,611,437 534,616,340,728 270,474,143,255971,168,377,893 728,978,298,936 252,180,079,873317,306,620,174 372,291,329,296 177,563,793,675

1,649,357,609,504 1,635,885,968,960 700,218,016,803


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PH LC XT PHEst

To estimate the long term country risk premium, I start with the country rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and es

that rating (US corporates and country bonds) over the treasury bond rate. This becomes a measure of the added country r

I add this default spread to the historical risk premium for a mature equity market (estimated from US historical data) to e

In the short term especially, the equity country risk premium is likely to be greater than the country's default spread. You

premium by multiplying the default spread by the relative equity market volatility for that market (Std dev in country equi

In this spreadsheet, I have used the global average of equity to bond market volatility of 1.5 to estimate the country equity

Enter the current risk premium for a mature equity market

The US corporate spreads come from a deeper market, but the country bond spreads may be a more direc

go to the bottom of the spreadsheet.

Do you want to adjust the country risk premium for the additional volatility of the equity market?If no, use the country risk premium from the columns below

If yes, you can adjust the country risk premium for the relative volatility of the equity market below:

Enter the country risk premium from default spread =Enter the standard deviation in the equity market in the country =Enter the standard deviation in the long term bond issued by the country =

The adjusted country risk premium for your country is =

Country Region Long-Term Rating

Albania Eastern Europe & Russia B1

Argentina Central and South America B3

Armenia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2

Australia Australia & New Zealand Aaa

Austria [1] Western Europe Aaa

Azerbaijan Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1

Bahamas Caribbean A1

Bahrain Middle East A2

Barbados Caribbean A3

Belarus Eastern Europe & Russia B1

Belgium [1] Western Europe Aa1

Belize Central and South America Caa1

Bermuda Caribbean Aaa

Bolivia Central and South America B3

Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe & Russia B2

Botswana Africa A1

Brazil Central and South America Ba1

Bulgaria Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3

Cambodia Asia B2

Canada North America Aaa

Cayman Islands Caribbean Aa3


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Chile Central and South America A1

China Asia A1

Colombia Central and South America Baa3

Costa Rica Central and South America Ba1

Croatia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa2

Cuba Caribbean Caa1

Cyprus [1] Western Europe Aa3

Czech Republic Eastern Europe & Russia A1

Denmark Western Europe Aaa

Dominican Republic Caribbean B2

Ecuador Central and South America Ca

Egypt Africa Ba1

El Salvador Central and South America Baa2

Estonia Eastern Europe & Russia A1

Fiji Islands Asia Ba2

Finland [1] Western Europe Aaa

France [1] Western Europe Aaa

Germany [1] Western Europe Aaa

Greece [1] Western Europe A1

Guatemala Central and South America Ba1

Honduras Central and South America B2

Hong Kong Asia Aa2

Hungary Eastern Europe & Russia A3

Iceland Western Europe Baa1

India Asia Ba2Indonesia Asia Ba3

Ireland [1] Western Europe Aaa

Isle of Man Financial Center Aaa

Israel Middle East A1

Italy [1] Western Europe Aa2

Jamaica Caribbean Ba2

Japan Asia Aa3

Jordan Middle East Baa3

Kazakhstan Eastern Europe & Russia Baa1

Korea Asia A2Kuwait Middle East Aa2

Latvia Eastern Europe & Russia A3

Lebanon Middle East B3

Lithuania Eastern Europe & Russia A2

Luxembourg [1] Financial Center Aaa

Macao Asia Aa3


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Malaysia Asia A3

Malta [1] Western Europe A1

Mauritius Africa Baa2

Mexico Central and South America Baa1

Moldova Eastern Europe & Russia Caa1

Mongolia Asia B1

Montenegro Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2

Morocco Africa Ba1

Netherlands [1] Western Europe Aaa

New Zealand Australia & New Zealand Aaa

Nicaragua Central and South America B3

Norway Western Europe Aaa

Oman Middle East A2

Pakistan Asia B3

Panama Central and South America Ba1

Papua New Guinea Asia B1

Paraguay Central and South America B3

Peru Central and South America Baa3

Philippines Asia B1

Poland Eastern Europe & Russia A2

Portugal [1] Western Europe Aa2

Qatar Middle East Aa2

Romania Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3

Russia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa1

Saudi Arabia Middle East A1Singapore Asia Aaa

Slovakia Eastern Europe & Russia A1

Slovenia [1] Eastern Europe & Russia Aa2

South Africa Africa A2

Spain [1] Western Europe Aaa

St. Vincent & the Grenadines Caribbean B1

Suriname Caribbean Ba3

Sweden Western Europe Aaa

Switzerland Western Europe Aaa

Taiwan Asia Aa3Thailand Asia Baa1

Trinidad and Tobago Caribbean Baa1

Tunisia Africa Baa2

Turkey Asia Ba3

Turkmenistan Eastern Europe & Russia B2

Ukraine Eastern Europe & Russia B1


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United Arab Emirates Middle East Aa2

United Kingdom Western Europe Aaa

United States of America North America Aaa

Uruguay Central and South America B1

Venezuela Central and South America B1

Vietnam Asia Ba3

Rating Default spread in basis points

Aaa 0Aa1 70Aa2 100Aa3 120A1 140A2 160

A3 175Baa1 200Baa2 225Baa3 260Ba1 300Ba2 400Ba3 525B1 650B2 750B3 900

Caa1 1200Caa2 1350

Caa3 1500


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N B RI RO THEO XP HNG TN DNGimating Country Risk Premiumstimate the default spread for

isk premium for that country.

stimate the total risk premium.

can estimate an adjusted country risk

ity market/Std dev in country bond)

risk premium.

5.00% ! I use the risk premium f The historical spreads re

t measure of country risk. To update the spreads

Yes

5.50%61% ! Use annualized historic35% ! Use annualized historic

9.59%

Adj. Default Spread Total Risk Premium ountry Risk Premium

650 14.75% 9.75%

900 18.50% 13.50%

400 11.00% 6.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

300 9.50% 4.50%

140 7.10% 2.10%

160 7.40% 2.40%

175 7.63% 2.63%

650 14.75% 9.75%

70 6.05% 1.05%

1200 23.00% 18.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

900 18.50% 13.50%

750 16.25% 11.25%

140 7.10% 2.10%

300 9.50% 4.50%

260 8.90% 3.90%

750 16.25% 11.25%

0 5.00% 0.00%

120 6.80% 1.80%


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140 7.10% 2.10%

140 7.10% 2.10%

260 8.90% 3.90%

300 9.50% 4.50%

225 8.38% 3.38%

1200 23.00% 18.00%

120 6.80% 1.80%

140 7.10% 2.10%

0 5.00% 0.00%

750 16.25% 11.25%

260 8.90% 3.90%

300 9.50% 4.50%

225 8.38% 3.38%

140 7.10% 2.10%

400 11.00% 6.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

140 7.10% 2.10%

300 9.50% 4.50%

750 16.25% 11.25%

100 6.50% 1.50%

175 7.63% 2.63%

200 8.00% 3.00%

400 11.00% 6.00%525 12.88% 7.88%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

140 7.10% 2.10%

100 6.50% 1.50%

400 11.00% 6.00%

120 6.80% 1.80%

260 8.90% 3.90%

200 8.00% 3.00%

160 7.40% 2.40%100 6.50% 1.50%

175 7.63% 2.63%

900 18.50% 13.50%

160 7.40% 2.40%

0 5.00% 0.00%

120 6.80% 1.80%


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175 7.63% 2.63%

140 7.10% 2.10%

225 8.38% 3.38%

200 8.00% 3.00%

1200 23.00% 18.00%

650 14.75% 9.75%

400 11.00% 6.00%

300 9.50% 4.50%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

900 18.50% 13.50%

0 5.00% 0.00%

160 7.40% 2.40%

900 18.50% 13.50%

300 9.50% 4.50%

650 14.75% 9.75%

900 18.50% 13.50%

260 8.90% 3.90%

650 14.75% 9.75%

160 7.40% 2.40%

100 6.50% 1.50%

100 6.50% 1.50%

260 8.90% 3.90%

200 8.00% 3.00%

140 7.10% 2.10%0 5.00% 0.00%

140 7.10% 2.10%

100 6.50% 1.50%

160 7.40% 2.40%

0 5.00% 0.00%

650 14.75% 9.75%

525 12.88% 7.88%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

120 6.80% 1.80%200 8.00% 3.00%

200 8.00% 3.00%

225 8.38% 3.38%

525 12.88% 7.88%

750 16.25% 11.25%

650 14.75% 9.75%


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100 6.50% 1.50%

0 5.00% 0.00%

0 5.00% 0.00%

650 14.75% 9.75%

650 14.75% 9.75%

525 12.88% 7.88%


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or the United States for this estimatepresent an average over 5 years

! Yes or No

l volatilityl volatility

Has to be sorted in ascending order

Rating Default spread in basis points

A1 140

A2 160

A3 175

Aa1 70

Aa2 100

Aa3 120

Aaa 0

B1 650

B2 750

B3 900

Ba1 300

Ba2 400

Ba3 525

Baa1 200

Baa2 225

Baa3 260

Caa1 1200

Caa2 1350

Caa3 1500


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D bo nm 2009

Nm Doanh thu thun2005 342,782,540,005

2006 710,645,070,1282007 366,102,075,5142008 368,911,910,076

Theo tnh cht ca chu k kinh t, khi bc ra khi khng hong v c tn hiu phc hi, ngthng l nhng ngnh ngh hi phc nhanh. c bit, hiu ng kch cu m cc chnh ph,khai u hng mnh vo u t xy dng c bn, vn ng gp t trng ln trong tng tr

Chnh ph d kin tc tng trng nm 2009 t 4.7%, nm 2010 t 6.5%

D c ci thin trong na u nm 2009, lnh vc xy dng s vn gp nhiu kh khn.Na u nm 2009, xy dng tng trng 8,7% so vi cng k nm trc.Nguyn nhn khin lnh vc ny tng trng l li sut cho vay mc thp.(Theo bo co The Vietnam Business Forecast Report Quarter 4/2009 ca Business Monitor

D bo doanh thu qua cc nm :

Nm Doanh thu d bo thay i so vi nm 20082009 401,007,246,253 8.70%2010 413,181,339,285 12.00%2011 461,139,887,595 25.00%2012 483,274,602,200 31.00%2013 505,409,316,804 37.00%

D bao cho nam 2009

Can be used to get an estimate of funds needed if ratios remain constant.

A* 2,031,307,890,691 AFN =

368,911,910,076 = 176,723,786,490

401,007,246,253 = 151,637,436,663S 32,095,336,177L* 315,015,932,653M 0.705%RR -82.05%

THE AFN EQUATION (Section 17.3)

(A*/S0)S

S0

S1


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8.700%

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS: INCREASE ITEMS AT THE SALES GROWTH RATEKEY INPUT DATA: Raise AFN as foll

8.70% Notes

8.00% LT debtTax rate 25.00% Com. Stk.Interest rate on all debt 10.50%

Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases

2008 with sales 1st PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 401,007,246,253Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 201,463,785,735Khu hao 101,011,911,837 109,799,948,167Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 311,263,733,901EBIT 82,560,728,934 89,743,512,351Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 9,423,068,797EBT 3,573,580,484 80,320,443,554Thu 972,439,576 20,080,110,889Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 60,240,332,666

C tc 520,228,182 565,488,033

Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 59,674,844,632Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906

Balance Sheets Actual Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass

Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 50,876,996,692Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 926,186,671,869Tn kho 159,487,170,095 173,362,553,893Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 25,883,772,444Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,176,309,994,898

Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 1,031,721,682,283Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 2,208,031,677,181

N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 99,020,060,161Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 243,402,258,632Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 703,304,930,231Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 668,736,155Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,837,114,048

Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,675,142,044,279Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848

The AFN equation can be used to estimate the maximum growth rate without resorting to extas follows:

gS = S/S0 =

Sales Growth Rate, gs

Dividend growth rate, gd

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


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Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -19,581,931,708Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 57,540,496,597Cc qu 17,455,624,826 18,974,264,186Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 443,251,964,923Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,118,394,009,202

AFN 89,637,667,979AFN ly tch 89,637,667,979

Notes 25.000% 22,409,416,995LT debt 30.000% 26,891,300,394

Com. Stk. 45.000% 40,336,950,591100.000% 89,637,667,979

Cc t s2008

T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18T l n vay 81.1%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7%

T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 2.11% 0.18 4.85

Bng cn i k ton v kt qu kinh doanh d bo iu chnh (t s cn

Income Statements Thc t nm 2008 Increases2008 with sales 1st Pass

Doanh thu 368,911,910,076 401,007,246,253Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 201,463,785,735Khu hao 101,011,911,837 109,799,948,167Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 311,263,733,901

EBIT 82,560,728,934 89,743,512,351Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 carried over 9,423,068,797EBT 3,573,580,484 80,320,443,554Thu 972,439,576 20,080,110,889Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 60,240,332,666

C tc 520,228,182 565,488,033Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 59,674,844,632Retention Ratio 0.8000 0.9906


Ti sn

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

T s vng quay

ti sn

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


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Tin 46,804,964,758 50,876,996,692Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 modified 401,007,246,253Tn kho 159,487,170,095 modified 128,685,518,491Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 25,883,772,444Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 606,453,533,880Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 modified 722,205,177,598Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,328,658,711,478

N v vn ch s huPhi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 99,020,060,161Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 carried over 360,882,611,437Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 243,402,258,632Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 703,304,930,231Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 carried over 971,168,377,893Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 668,736,155Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 971,837,114,048Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,675,142,044,279

Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 carried over 386,319,135,848Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -19,581,931,708Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 prior+add'n 57,540,496,597Cc qu 17,455,624,826 18,974,264,186Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 443,251,964,923Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 2,118,394,009,202

AFN -789,735,297,724AFN ly tch -789,735,297,724

Notes 25.000% -197,433,824,431LT debt 30.000% -236,920,589,317

Com. Stk. 45.000% -355,380,883,976100.000% -789,735,297,724

Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh nm 200Income Statements D bo

Thc t nm 2008 4th PassDoanh thu 368,911,910,076 401,007,246,253Chi ph tr khu hao 185,339,269,305 201,463,785,735Khu hao 101,011,911,837 109,799,948,167Tng chi ph hot ng 286,351,181,142 311,263,733,901EBIT 82,560,728,934 89,743,512,351

Tr li vay 78,987,148,450 25,384,133,587EBT 3,573,580,484 64,359,378,764Thu 972,439,576 16,089,844,691Li nhun rng 2,601,140,908 48,269,534,073C tc 520,228,182 565,488,033Li nhun gi li 2,080,912,726 47,704,046,040Retention Ratio 0.800 0.9883

Bng cn i k ton nm 2008 v d kin nm 2009Balance Sheet Actual 2008 2009

4th Pass

Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 50,876,996,692

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


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Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 401,007,246,253Tn kho 159,487,170,095 128,685,518,491Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 25,883,772,444Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 606,453,533,880Tng ti sn c nh rng 949,145,981,861 722,205,177,598Tng ti sn 2,031,307,890,691 1,328,658,711,478

N v vn ch s hu Phi tr ngi bn 91,094,811,556 99,020,060,161Vay ngn hn 360,882,611,437 166,441,486,654Phi tr khc 223,921,121,097 243,402,258,632Tng n ngn hn 675,898,544,090 508,863,805,448Vay v n di hn 971,168,377,893 737,839,028,154Khon phi tr di hn khc 615,212,654 668,736,155Tng n di hn 971,783,590,547 738,507,764,308Tng n 1,647,682,134,637 1,247,371,569,756Vn gp ca c ng 386,319,135,848 36,325,111,239

Thng d vn -18,014,656,585 -19,581,931,708Li nhun gi li -2,134,348,035 45,569,698,005Cc qu 17,455,624,826 18,974,264,186Tng vn c ng thng 383,625,756,054 81,287,141,722Tng ngun vn 2,031,307,890,691 1,328,658,711,478

4th Pass2008 2009

T l thanh ton hin hnh 1.60 1.19Vng quay hng tn kho 2.31 3.12K thu tin bnh qun DSO 843.0 365.0Tng vng quay ti sn 0.18 0.30T l n vay 81.1% 93.9%Ti sn/ Vn ch s hu 5.30 16.35T s thanh ton li vayTIE 1.05 3.54Chi ph hot ng/ doanh thu 77.6% 77.6%T l li rng (li rng/ doanh thu) 0.7% 12.04%Li nhun trn ti sn ROA 0.1% 3.63%Li nhun trn vn ch s hu RO 0.7% 59.38%

T l li rng s khuch i vnDu Pont ROE, 2008 = 0.71% 0.18 5.30

Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 12.04% 0.30 16.35Du Pont ROE, modified = 12.04% 0.30 16.35

Cng Ty CNT = 4.00% 2.60 1.60

Nm Doanh thu Hng tn kho Khon phi thu20042005 342,782,540,005 125,158,057,891 169,226,476,5822006 710,645,070,128 147,220,462,770 238,967,055,6592007 366,102,075,514 94,074,085,476 895,800,089,0222008 368,911,910,076 159,487,170,095 851,401,405,814

T s vng quayti sn

USING REGRESSION TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL FORECASTS (Section 17.5)


45/107

2009 401,007,246,253 ? ?

D bo hng tn khoRegression Prior

Forecast Forecast DifferenceInventories 128,685,518,491 128,685,518,491 0R-Square 0.84

D bo khon phi thuRegression Prior

Forecast Forecast DifferenceReceivables 585,354,550,917 401,007,246,253 184,347,304,665R-Square 0.99

iu chnh cng sut hot ng ti a cho cc ti sn c nh hin c t 70% nh nm 20082008 Sales 368,911,910,0762009 Pred. Sales 401,007,246,253Percentage of capacity 0.70

2008 Fixed Assets 949,145,981,861

Full capacity sales = 527,017,014,394 , which is the sales achievable in 2008Target FA/Sales = 1.80 , which is the 2008 FA divided by the 2Required FA = 722,205,177,598 , which is forecasted 2009 sales timesPrevious Forecast = 1,031,721,682,283 , which assumed that FA grow at the sPotential savings = 309,516,504,685

Potential Inventory Reduction based on Turnover

VNE's inv turnover ratio, 4th pass: 2.31CNT Company average ratio: 22.96

Sales/Inventories, based on 4th pass = 401,007,246,253 /Inventories if achieved industry average turnover:

401,007,246,253 /Difference:

Potential Receivables Reduction based on DSO

S liu khon phi thu theo m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh ln hn s liu d bo theo cc ch sng nn khng iu chnh cc khon s liu ny theo s liu d bo tuyn tnh

FORECASTING FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS WHEN FINANCIAL RATIOS CHAN

It is not necessarily appropriate to assume that current assets should grow at the same rate as salenot operating at full capacity. This means they could produce more, hence have higher sales, with twere 368,911,910,076, while fixed assets were 949,145,981,861 million. Now, suppose we determican use this information to calculate the firm's full capacity sales and the target fixed assets-to-sales

If LTC could reduce its inventories to the point where its inventory turnover ratio was the same as thup this much cash:

Nhn xt: vng quay hng tn kho ca VNE l 2,31 nh hn vng quay hng tn kho ca cncho thy cng ty ang nm gi hng tn kho khng hp l nn iu chnh d liu nm 2008


46/107

If LTC could reduce its receivables to the point where its DSO was the same as the industry averag

LTC's DSO, 4th pass: 843.02Company PTC average ratio: 365.00Receivables, based on 4th pass = 926,186,671,869

DSO = A/R /DSO = 926,186,671,869 /

A/R if achieved Company PTC DSO: 401,007,246,253 /Difference: 525,179,425,616

Nhn xt: iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO ca cng VNE t 843,023 ngy v cn365 ngqu.

Nh vy, sau khi cn c vo cc t s ca nm 2008, so snh vi t s ca cng ty cng ngth , hai khon iu chnh trong d bo l iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO t 843,023 nca ti sn c nh t 70% ln 100%. Thay th, cc s liu iu chnh ny vo li bng d b

S dng d bo khon phi thu theo phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh vi doanh thu cho s lius ca cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng PTC, ct iu chnh modified c gith 4


47/107

nh ti chnh, xy dng v BStrong c Vit Nam ang trinng GDP.

International.(BMI))

-27,406,386,141 2,320,036,314

- (L*/S0)S - MS

1(RR)


48/107

ws:

25% 286,351,181,142

30% 368,911,910,07645% 0.78 0.5

100%

2009 (d bo)

Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment401,007,246,253 401,007,246,253201,463,785,735 201,463,785,735109,799,948,167 109,799,948,167311,263,733,901 311,263,733,901

89,743,512,351 89,743,512,35166,054,780,755 75,477,849,552 2,860,997,691 78,338,847,244 123,916,963

14,265,662,799 11,404,665,1073,566,415,700 2,851,166,277

10,699,247,099 8,553,498,831

565,488,033 565,488,033

10,133,759,066 7,988,010,7970.9471 0.9339

2009 Forecast

Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment

50,876,996,692 50,876,996,692926,186,671,869 926,186,671,869173,362,553,893 173,362,553,893

25,883,772,444 25,883,772,4441,176,309,994,898 1,176,309,994,898

1,031,721,682,283 1,031,721,682,2832,208,031,677,181 2,208,031,677,181

99,020,060,161 99,020,060,161

22,409,416,995 383,292,028,432 12,385,271,392 395,677,299,823 536,437,067243,402,258,632 243,402,258,632725,714,347,226 738,099,618,617

26,891,300,394 998,059,678,287 14,862,325,670 1,012,922,003,957 643,724,481668,736,155 668,736,155

998,728,414,442 1,013,590,740,112

1,724,442,761,667 1,751,690,358,72940,336,950,591 426,656,086,439 22,293,488,505 448,949,574,944 965,586,721

rnal financing. First, we define the sales growth rate


49/107

-19,581,931,708 -19,581,931,70810,133,759,066 7,999,411,031 7,988,010,797 5,853,662,762 7,895,073,075

18,974,264,186 18,974,264,186434,047,829,947 454,195,570,184

2,158,490,591,615 2,205,885,928,913

49,541,085,567 2,145,748,269139,178,753,546 141,324,501,814

12,385,271,392 536,437,06714,862,325,670 643,724,48122,293,488,505 965,586,72149,541,085,567 2,145,748,269

ROE0.7%1.9%

c vo cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng)

2009 (d bo)


89,743,512,351 89,743,512,35115,270,991,986 24,694,060,783 661,424,840 25,355,485,623 28,647,963

65,049,451,568 64,388,026,72816,262,362,892 16,097,006,68248,787,088,676 48,291,020,046

565,488,033 565,488,03348,221,600,643 47,725,532,013

0.9884 0.9883

2009 Forecast



50/107

0 50,876,996,692 50,876,996,6920 401,007,246,253 401,007,246,2530 128,685,518,491 128,685,518,4910 25,883,772,444 25,883,772,4440 606,453,533,880 606,453,533,8800 722,205,177,598 722,205,177,5980 1,328,658,711,478 1,328,658,711,4780

00 99,020,060,161 99,020,060,161

-197,433,824,431 163,448,787,006 2,863,310,997 166,312,098,003 124,017,1580 243,402,258,632 243,402,258,6320 505,871,105,800 508,734,416,797

-236,920,589,317 734,247,788,576 3,435,973,197 737,683,761,773 148,820,5890 668,736,155 668,736,1550 734,916,524,731 738,352,497,928

1,240,787,630,531 1,247,086,914,725

-355,380,883,976 30,938,251,872 5,153,959,795 36,092,211,668 223,230,8840 -19,581,931,708 -19,581,931,708

48,221,600,643 46,087,252,608 47,725,532,013 45,591,183,978 47,704,046,0400 18,974,264,186 18,974,264,1860 76,417,836,958 81,075,728,1230 1,317,205,467,489 1,328,162,642,848

11,453,243,990 496,068,630-778,282,053,734 -777,785,985,104

2,863,310,997 124,017,1583,435,973,197 148,820,589

5,153,959,795 223,230,88411,453,243,990 496,068,630

8 v d kin nm 20092009

Modified401,007,246,253201,463,785,735109,799,948,167311,263,733,90189,743,512,351

25,384,133,58764,359,378,76416,089,844,69148,269,534,073

565,488,03347,704,046,040

0.9883

Forecast:

Modified

50,876,996,692


51/107

401,007,246,253128,685,518,49125,883,772,444

606,453,533,880722,205,177,598

1,328,658,711,478

99,020,060,161166,441,486,654243,402,258,632508,863,805,448737,839,028,154

668,736,155738,507,764,308

1,247,371,569,75636,325,111,239

-19,581,931,70845,569,698,00518,974,264,18681,287,141,722

1,328,658,711,478

Modified Cty tng ng2009 CNT 20081.19 1.043.12 22.96

365.0 66.490.30 2.60

93.9% 84.0%16.35 1.603.54 1.46

77.6%12.04% 4.00%3.63% 1.35%59.38% 9.19%

ROE0.7%

59.38%59.38% ROE tng l do t l li rng v h s khuch i vn tng.16.64%


52/107

ln 100%

with the 949.145.981.861 of FA.08 full capacity sales.

he target FA/Sales ratio.les growth rate.

128,685,518,491 = 3.12

17,465,472,398 = 22.96111,220,046,093

ca cng ty c quy m tng

GE (Web Appendix 17A)

. The same is true for fixed assets. Suppose the firm isheir existing fixed assets. Remember, sales for 2008ne that the firm was operating at 70% of full capacity. Weratio.

e industry average, then it would free

g ty c quy m tng ng CNT l 22.96; iu nyheo vng quay hng tn kho ca cng ty CNT


53/107

, then it would free up this much cash:

sales/3651,098,649,990 = 843.0231,098,649,990 = 365.00

y cng ty ny c k thu tin lu

nh c quy m tng ng CNT; cgy cn 365 ngy; nng cng sut

ban u chy li vng lp 4 ln.

ao hn sau khi iu chnh theo tnguyn khng i so vi ln d bo


54/107


55/107

4th Pass401,007,246,253201,463,785,735109,799,948,167311,263,733,901

89,743,512,35178,462,764,20611,280,748,1452,820,187,0368,460,561,109

565,488,033

7,895,073,0750.9332

4th Pass

50,876,996,692926,186,671,869173,362,553,893

25,883,772,4441,176,309,994,898

1,031,721,682,2832,208,031,677,181

99,020,060,161

396,213,736,891243,402,258,632738,636,055,684

1,013,565,728,437668,736,155

1,014,234,464,592

1,752,870,520,277449,915,161,664


56/107

-19,581,931,7085,760,725,040

18,974,264,186455,068,219,183

2,207,938,739,459

92,937,722141,417,439,536

23,234,43027,881,31741,821,97592,937,722

4th pass1.592.31

843.00.18

79.4%4.851.14

77.6%2.1%0.4%1.9%

4th Pass401,007,246,253201,463,785,735109,799,948,167311,263,733,901

89,743,512,35125,384,133,58764,359,378,76416,089,844,69148,269,534,073

565,488,03347,704,046,040

0.9883

4th Pass


57/107

50,876,996,692401,007,246,253128,685,518,491

25,883,772,444606,453,533,880722,205,177,598

1,328,658,711,478

99,020,060,161

166,436,115,161243,402,258,632508,858,433,955737,832,582,362

668,736,155738,501,318,517

1,247,359,752,471

36,315,442,551-19,581,931,70845,569,698,00518,974,264,18681,277,473,034

1,328,637,225,506

21,485,973-777,764,499,132

5,371,4936,445,792

9,668,68821,485,973


58/107


59/107


60/107


61/107

D bo nm 2010

Nm Doanh thu thun2005 342,782,540,005

2006 710,645,070,1282007 366,102,075,5142008 368,911,910,076

Theo tnh cht ca chu k kinh t, khi bc ra khi khng hong v c tn hiu phc hi, ngthng l nhng ngnh ngh hi phc nhanh. c bit, hiu ng kch cu m cc chnh ph,khai u hng mnh vo u t xy dng c bn, vn ng gp t trng ln trong tng tr


D c ci thin trong na u nm 2009, lnh vc xy dng s vn gp nhiu kh khn.Na u nm 2009, xy dng tng trng 8,7% so vi cng k nm trc.Nguyn nhn khin lnh vc ny tng trng l li sut cho vay mc thp.(Theo bo co The Vietnam Business Forecast Report Quarter 4/2009 ca Business Monitor



D bao cho nam 2010


A* 2,031,307,890,691 AFN =

368,911,910,076 = 243,756,946,883

413,181,339,285 = 208,345,504,764S 44,269,429,209L* 315,015,932,653M 0.705%RR -82.05%


(A*/S0)S

S0

S1


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12.000%


12.00% Notes




C tc 520,228,182 582,655,563



Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 52,421,560,529Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 954,304,574,511Tn kho 159,487,170,095 178,625,630,506Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 26,669,572,344Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,212,021,337,890




The AFN equation can be used to estimate the maximum growth rate without resorting to extas follows:

gS = S/S0 =



prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


63/107


AFN 144,461,792,808AFN ly tch 144,461,792,808

Notes 25.000% 36,115,448,202LT debt 30.000% 43,338,537,842

Com. Stk. 45.000% 65,007,806,764100.000% 144,461,792,808

Cc t s2008









Ti sn

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

T s vng quay

ti sn

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


64/107




AFN -715,574,492,323AFN ly tch -715,574,492,323

Notes 25.000% -178,893,623,081LT debt 30.000% -214,672,347,697

Com. Stk. 45.000% -322,008,521,545100.000% -715,574,492,323





4th Pass

Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 52,421,560,529

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


65/107




4th Pass2008 2010




Cng Ty CNT = 4.00% 2.60 1.60


T s vng quayti sn



66/107

2009 413,181,339,285 ? ?


Forecast Forecast DifferenceInventories 129,424,740,547 178,625,630,506 -49,200,889,960R-Square 0.84



iu chnh cng sut hot ng ti a cho cc ti sn c nh hin c t 70% nh nm 20082008 Sales 368,911,910,0762009 Pred. Sales 413,181,339,285Percentage of capacity 0.70

2008 Fixed Assets 949,145,981,861

Full capacity sales = 527,017,014,394 , which is the sales achievable in 2008Target FA/Sales = 1.80 , which is the 2008 FA divided by the 2Required FA = 744,130,449,779 , which is forecasted 2009 sales timesPrevious Forecast = 1,063,043,499,684 , which assumed that FA grow at the sPotential savings = 318,913,049,905




413,181,339,285 /Difference:


S liu khon phi thu theo m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh ln hn s liu d bo theo cc ch sng nn khng iu chnh cc khon s liu ny theo s liu d bo tuyn tnh

FORECASTING FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS WHEN FINANCIAL RATIOS CHAN

It is not necessarily appropriate to assume that current assets should grow at the same rate as salenot operating at full capacity. This means they could produce more, hence have higher sales, with twere 100,015,126,462, while fixed assets were 37,503,864,550 million. Now, suppose we determincan use this information to calculate the firm's full capacity sales and the target fixed assets-to-sales

If LTC could reduce its inventories to the point where its inventory turnover ratio was the same as thup this much cash:

Nhn xt: vng quay hng tn kho ca VNE l 2,31 nh hn vng quay hng tn kho ca cncho thy cng ty ang nm gi hng tn kho khng hp l nn iu chnh d liu nm 2008


67/107

If LTC could reduce its receivables to the point where its DSO was the same as the industry averag

LTC's DSO, 4th pass: 843.02Company PTC average ratio: 365.00Receivables, based on 4th pass = 954,304,574,511

DSO = A/R /DSO = 954,304,574,511 /


Nhn xt: iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO ca cng VNE t 843,023 ngy v cn 547 n547*1.098.649.990= 600.961.544.384 ( v hai cng ty ny chnh lch qu nhiu nn ch iu chbng cng ty CNT)

Nh vy, sau khi cn c vo cc t s ca nm 2008, so snh vi t s ca cng ty cng ngth , hai khon iu chnh trong d bo l iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO t 843,023 nca ti sn c nh t 80% ln 100%. Thay th, cc s liu iu chnh ny vo li bng d b

S dng d bo tn kho v khon phi thu theo phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh vi doanh thu chnh theo t s ca cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng PTC, ct iu chnh modifvi ln d bo th 4


68/107

nh ti chnh, xy dng v BStrong c Vit Nam ang trinng GDP.

International.(BMI))

-37,801,911,918 2,390,469,799

- (L*/S0)S - MS

1(RR)


69/107

ws:

25% 286,351,181,142

30% 368,911,910,07645% 0.78 0.5

100%

2010 (d bo)


92,468,016,406 92,468,016,40669,220,873,964 78,930,015,687 2,998,129,104 81,928,144,791 129,856,467

13,538,000,719 10,539,871,6163,384,500,180 2,634,967,904

10,153,500,539 7,904,903,712

582,655,563 582,655,563

9,570,844,976 7,322,248,1480.9426 0.9263

2010 Forecast


52,421,560,529 52,421,560,529954,304,574,511 954,304,574,511178,625,630,506 178,625,630,506

26,669,572,344 26,669,572,3441,212,021,337,890 1,212,021,337,890

1,063,043,499,684 1,063,043,499,6842,275,064,837,574 2,275,064,837,574

102,026,188,943 102,026,188,943

36,115,448,202 396,998,059,639 12,978,913,868 409,976,973,507 562,149,207250,791,655,629 250,791,655,629749,815,904,210 762,794,818,079

43,338,537,842 1,014,506,915,735 15,574,696,642 1,030,081,612,377 674,579,048689,038,172 689,038,172

1,015,195,953,908 1,030,770,650,550

1,765,011,858,118 1,793,565,468,62965,007,806,764 451,326,942,612 23,362,044,963 474,688,987,575 1,011,868,572

rnal financing. First, we define the sales growth rate


70/107

-20,176,415,375 -20,176,415,3759,570,844,976 7,436,496,941 7,322,248,148 5,187,900,113 7,224,855,798

19,550,299,805 19,550,299,805458,137,323,982 479,250,772,118

2,223,149,182,101 2,272,816,240,746

51,915,655,473 2,248,596,828196,377,448,281 198,626,045,109

12,978,913,868 562,149,20715,574,696,642 674,579,04823,362,044,963 1,011,868,57251,915,655,473 2,248,596,828

ROE0.7%1.6%

c vo cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng)

2010 (d bo)


92,468,016,406 92,468,016,40619,553,778,498 29,262,920,221 846,923,031 30,109,843,252 36,682,354

63,205,096,185 62,358,173,15415,801,274,046 15,589,543,28947,403,822,139 46,768,629,866

582,655,563 582,655,56346,821,166,576 46,185,974,302

0.9877 0.9875

2009 Forecast



71/107

0 52,421,560,529 52,421,560,5290 413,181,339,285 413,181,339,2850 178,625,630,506 178,625,630,5060 26,669,572,344 26,669,572,3440 670,898,102,664 670,898,102,6640 744,130,449,779 744,130,449,7790 1,415,028,552,443 1,415,028,552,4430

00 102,026,188,943 102,026,188,943

-178,893,623,081 181,988,988,356 3,666,333,468 185,655,321,825 158,798,0680 250,791,655,629 250,791,655,6290 534,806,832,928 538,473,166,396

-214,672,347,697 756,496,030,196 4,399,600,162 760,895,630,358 190,557,6820 689,038,172 689,038,1720 757,185,068,369 761,584,668,531

1,291,991,901,296 1,300,057,834,927

-322,008,521,545 64,310,614,303 6,599,400,243 70,910,014,546 285,836,5230 -20,176,415,375 -20,176,415,375

46,821,166,576 44,686,818,541 46,185,974,302 44,051,626,267 46,158,462,5370 19,550,299,805 19,550,299,8050 108,371,317,273 114,335,525,2430 1,400,363,218,570 1,414,393,360,170

14,665,333,874 635,192,273-700,909,158,449 -700,273,966,176

3,666,333,468 158,798,0684,399,600,162 190,557,682

6,599,400,243 285,836,52314,665,333,874 635,192,273

8 v d kin nm 20102010

Modified413,181,339,285207,579,981,622113,133,341,257320,713,322,87992,468,016,406

30,146,525,60662,321,490,80015,580,372,70046,741,118,100

582,655,56346,158,462,537

0.9875

Forecast:

Modified

52,421,560,529


72/107

413,181,339,285178,625,630,50626,669,572,344

670,898,102,664744,130,449,779

1,415,028,552,443

102,026,188,943185,820,997,834250,791,655,629538,638,842,406761,094,441,570

689,038,172761,783,479,742

1,300,422,322,14871,208,231,363

-20,176,415,37544,024,114,50219,550,299,805

114,606,230,2951,415,028,552,443

Modified Cty tng ng2010 CNT 20081.25 1.042.31 22.96

365.0 66.490.29 2.60

91.9% 84.0%12.35 1.603.07 1.46

77.6%11.31% 4.00%3.30% 1.35%40.78% 9.19%

ROE0.7%

40.78%40.78% ROE tng l do t l li rng v h s khuch i vn tng.16.64%


73/107

ln 100%

with the 37.503.864.550 of FA.08 full capacity sales.

he target FA/Sales ratio.les growth rate.

178,625,630,506 = 2.31

17,995,702,931 = 22.96160,629,927,576

ca cng ty c quy m tng

GE (Web Appendix 17A)

. The same is true for fixed assets. Suppose the firm isheir existing fixed assets. Remember, sales for 2008e that the firm was operating at 90% of full capacity. Weratio.

e industry average, then it would free

g ty c quy m tng ng CNT l 22.96; iu nyheo vng quay hng tn kho ca cng ty CNT


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, then it would free up this much cash:

sales/3651,132,003,669 = 843.0231,132,003,669 = 365.00

y, vy khon phi thu lnh gim bt ch khng iu chnh

nh c quy m tng ng CNT; cgy cn 547 ngy; nng cng sut

ban u chy li vng lp 4 ln.

u cho s liu cao hn sau khi iuied c gi nguyn khng i so


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4th Pass413,181,339,285207,579,981,622113,133,341,257320,713,322,879

92,468,016,40682,058,001,25710,410,015,1492,602,503,7877,807,511,362

582,655,563

7,224,855,7980.9254

4th Pass

52,421,560,529954,304,574,511178,625,630,506

26,669,572,3441,212,021,337,890

1,063,043,499,6842,275,064,837,574

102,026,188,943410,539,122,714250,791,655,629763,356,967,286

1,030,756,191,426689,038,172

1,031,445,229,598

1,794,802,196,884475,700,856,147


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-20,176,415,3755,090,507,763

19,550,299,805480,165,248,340

2,274,967,445,224

97,392,350198,723,437,459

24,348,08829,217,70543,826,55897,392,350

4th pass1.592.31

843.00.18

78.9%4.741.13

77.6%1.9%0.3%1.6%

4th Pass413,181,339,285207,579,981,622113,133,341,257320,713,322,879

92,468,016,40630,146,525,60662,321,490,80015,580,372,70046,741,118,100

582,655,56346,158,462,537

0.9875

4th Pass


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52,421,560,529413,181,339,285178,625,630,506

26,669,572,344670,898,102,664744,130,449,779

1,415,028,552,443

102,026,188,943185,814,119,893250,791,655,629538,631,964,464761,086,188,040

689,038,172761,775,226,213

1,300,407,190,677

71,195,851,069-20,176,415,37544,024,114,50219,550,299,805

114,593,850,0011,415,001,040,678

27,511,765-700,246,454,411

6,877,9418,253,530

12,380,29427,511,765


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D bo nm 2011

Nm Doanh thu thun2005 342,782,540,005

2006 710,645,070,1282007 366,102,075,5142008 368,911,910,076

Theo tnh cht ca chu k kinh t, khi bc ra khi khng hong v c tn hiu phc hi, ngnthng l nhng ngnh ngh hi phc nhanh. c bit, hiu ng kch cu m cc chnh ph, trkhai u hng mnh vo u t xy dng c bn, vn ng gp t trng ln trong tng trn


D c ci thin trong na u nm 2009, lnh vc xy dng s vn gp nhiu kh khn.Na u nm 2009, xy dng tng trng 8,7% so vi cng k nm trc.Nguyn nhn khin lnh vc ny tng trng l li sut cho vay mc thp.(Theo bo co The Vietnam Business Forecast Report Quarter 4/2009 ca Business Monitor I



D bao cho nam 2009


A* 2,031,307,890,691 AFN =

368,911,910,076 = 507,826,972,673

461,139,887,595 = 431,740,924,553S 92,227,977,519L* 315,015,932,653M 0.705%RR -82.05%


(A*/S0)S

S0

S1


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25.000%


25.00% Notes




C tc 520,228,182 650,285,227



Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 58,506,205,948Khon phi thu 852,057,655,813 1,065,072,069,766Tn kho 159,487,170,095 199,358,962,619Ti sn ngn hn khc 23,812,118,164 29,765,147,705Tng ti sn lu ng 1,082,161,908,830 1,352,702,386,038




The AFN equation can be used to estimate the maximum growth rate without resorting to exteras follows:

gS = S/S0 =



prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


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AFN 360,435,617,892AFN ly tch 360,435,617,892

Notes 25.000% 90,108,904,473LT debt 30.000% 108,130,685,367

Com. Stk. 45.000% 162,196,028,051100.000% 360,435,617,892

Cc t s2008









Ti sn

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

T s vng quay ti

sn

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


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AFN -599,426,307,478AFN ly tch -599,426,307,478

Notes 25.000% -149,856,576,869LT debt 30.000% -179,827,892,243

Com. Stk. 45.000% -269,741,838,365100.000% -599,426,307,478





4th Pass

Ti snTin 46,804,964,758 58,506,205,948

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)

prior*(1+gS)


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4th Pass2008 2011




Cng Ty CNT = 4.00% 2.60 1.60


T s vng quay tisn



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2009 461,139,887,595 ? ?


Forecast Forecast DifferenceInventories 132,336,827,432 199,358,962,619 -67,022,135,187R-Square 0.84



iu chnh cng sut hot ng ti a cho cc ti sn c nh hin c t 70% nh nm 2008 l2008 Sales 368,911,910,0762009 Pred. Sales 461,139,887,595Percentage of capacity 0.70

2008 Fixed Assets 949,145,981,861

Full capacity sales = 527,017,014,394 , which is the sales achievable in 2008 wiTarget FA/Sales = 1.80 , which is the 2008 FA divided by the 200Required FA = 830,502,734,128 , which is forecasted 2009 sales times thePrevious Forecast = 1,186,432,477,326 , which assumed that FA grow at the salePotential savings = 355,929,743,198




461,139,887,595 /Difference:


S liu d bo hng tn kho v d bo khon phi thu theo m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh ln hcng ty c quy m tng ng nn khng iu chnh cc khon s liu ny theo s liu d b

FORECASTING FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS WHEN FINANCIAL RATIOS CHANG

It is not necessarily appropriate to assume that current assets should grow at the same rate as sales.operating at full capacity. This means they could produce more, hence have higher sales, with their e100,015,126,462, while fixed assets were 37,503,864,550 million. Now, suppose we determine that ththis information to calculate the firm's full capacity sales and the target fixed assets-to-sales ratio.

If LTC could reduce its inventories to the point where its inventory turnover ratio was the same as the ithis much cash:

Nhn xt: vng quay hng tn kho ca VNE l 2,31 nh hn vng quay hng tn kho ca cngcho thy cng ty ang nm gi hng tn kho khng hp l nn iu chnh d liu nm 2008 th


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If LTC could reduce its receivables to the point where its DSO was the same as the industry average,

LTC's DSO, 4th pass: 843.02Company PTC average ratio: 365.00Receivables, based on 4th pass = 1,065,072,069,766

DSO = A/R /DSO = 1,065,072,069,766 /


Nhn xt: iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO ca cng VNE t 843,023 ngy v cn 547 ng547*1.098.649.990= 600.961.544.384 ( v hai cng ty ny chnh lch qu nhiu nn ch iu chnbng cng ty CNT)

Nh vy, sau khi cn c vo cc t s ca nm 2008, so snh vi t s ca cng ty cng ngnth , hai khon iu chnh trong d bo l iu chnh k thu tin bnh qun DSO t 843,023 ngti sn c nh t 80% ln 100%. Thay th, cc s liu iu chnh ny vo li bng d bo ban

S dng d bo tn kho v khon phi thu theo phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh vi doanh thu chnh theo t s ca cng ty cng ngnh c quy m tng ng PTC, ct iu chnh modifieln d bo th 4


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ti chnh, xy dng v BSong c Vit Nam ang trin

GDP.

ternational.(BMI))

-78,753,983,163 2,667,935,044

- (L*/S0)S - MS

1(RR)


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ws:

25% 286,351,181,142

30% 368,911,910,07645% 0.78 0.5

100%

2011 (d bo)

Adjustment 2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment461,139,887,595 461,139,887,595231,674,086,631 231,674,086,631126,264,889,796 126,264,889,796357,938,976,428 357,938,976,428103,200,911,168 103,200,911,168

81,693,362,363 92,529,458,035 3,538,343,757 96,067,801,793 153,254,51410,671,453,132 7,133,109,3752,667,863,283 1,783,277,3448,003,589,849 5,349,832,031

650,285,227 650,285,227

7,353,304,622 4,699,546,8040.9188 0.8784

2011 Forecast


58,506,205,948 58,506,205,9481,065,072,069,766 1,065,072,069,766

199,358,962,619 199,358,962,61929,765,147,705 29,765,147,705

1,352,702,386,038 1,352,702,386,038

1,186,432,477,326 1,186,432,477,3262,539,134,863,364 2,539,134,863,364

113,868,514,445 113,868,514,445

90,108,904,473 450,991,515,910 15,317,505,443 466,309,021,353 663,439,455279,901,401,371 279,901,401,371844,761,431,726 860,078,937,169

108,130,685,367 1,079,299,063,260 18,381,006,532 1,097,680,069,792 796,127,345769,015,818 769,015,818

1,080,068,079,078 1,098,449,085,610

1,924,829,510,804 1,958,528,022,779162,196,028,051 548,515,163,899 27,571,509,797 576,086,673,697 1,194,191,018

al financing. First, we define the sales growth rate


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-22,518,320,731

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