INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGYAND WATER MANAGEMENT
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Andrzej MazurInstitute of Meteorology and Water Management
Centre of Numerical Weather Forecasts61 Podleśna str., PL-01673 Warsaw, Poland
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Contents
4. Conclusions
1. Goal2. Methods
3. Results
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
1. Forecast of precipitation (of course)…
What is needed of DMO for precipitation-runoff models?
2. … together with air temperature
While precipitation is obviously the main driving factor for a hydrological model, the temperature data provides information on the state of the precipitation and the available potential for evapotranspiration
Goal
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
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Methods
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
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where:y - measurement vectorb - multiple regression coefficients (time dependent)h - predictors - model forecast values Q - error covariancer - observational errorP - forecast covariancee - forecast errorw - temporary scalark - Kalman gain
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of experiments for selected days/periods for temperature and precipitation:- June 30, 2007 – change from COSMO version 3.05 to 4.0- January 01, 2008 – six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs- August 04, 2008 – heavy storm over Poland (part I)- August 15, 2008 – heavy storm over Poland (part II)and only for precipitation – increased resolution computations, heavy precipitation (mainly convective type):- May 04, 2005- June 10, 2005- August 09, 2005
Results
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007
Results of June 30, 2007 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007
Bias of June 30, 2007 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007
Results of June 30, 2007 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs
Results of January 01, 2008 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Bias of January 01, 2008 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of Jan. 01, 2008 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).
First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 -0.406 2.522
DMO, 06:00 -0.513 2.740
AR, 12:00 -1.476 3.228
DMO, 12:00 -1.615 4.305
AR, 18:00 -1.298 3.570
DMO, 18:00 -1.942 4.976
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 0.241 1.750
DMO, 06:00 0.690 1.870
AR, 12:00 0.169 1.906
DMO, 12:00 1.274 2.538
AR, 18:00 0.313 1.786
DMO, 18:00 1.741 2.697
Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecastJune 30, 2007 January 01, 2008
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of Aug. 04, 2008 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).
Heavy storms over Poland, August 04, 2008
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Heavy storms over Poland, August 15, 2008
Results of Aug. 15, 2008 – air temperature. Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 -0.107 2.193
DMO, 06:00 -0.177 2.438
AR, 12:00 -1.073 3.804
DMO, 12:00 -4.552 5.906
AR, 18:00 -1.935 3.873
DMO, 18:00 -5.133 6.448
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 0.126 2.307
DMO, 06:00 0.130 2.438
AR, 12:00 0.664 2.579
DMO, 12:00 0.986 2.989
AR, 18:00 0.433 2.436
DMO, 18:00 0.683 2.915
Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecastAugust 04, 2008 August 15, 2008
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007
Results of June 30, 2007 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007
Bias of June 30, 2007 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007
Results of June 30, 2007 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of January 01, 2008 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Bias of January 01, 2008 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)
First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of Jan. 01, 2008 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecastJune 30, 2007 January 01, 2008
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 0.311 1.154
DMO, 06:00 0.774 1.307
AR, 12:00 0.223 1.248
DMO, 12:00 0.894 1.349
AR, 18:00 1.450 2.118
DMO, 18:00 1.774 2.358
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 0.318 1.526
DMO, 06:00 0.328 1.566
AR, 12:00 0.092 0.662
DMO, 12:00 0.105 0.674
AR, 18:00 0.153 0.901
DMO, 18:00 0.176 0.915
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of Aug. 04, 2008 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
Heavy storms over Poland, August 04, 2008
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Heavy storms over Poland, August 15, 2008
Results of Aug. 15, 2008 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecastAugust 04, 2008 August 15, 2008
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 1.010 4.146
DMO, 06:00 1.727 4.504
AR, 12:00 0.215 3.079
DMO, 12:00 0.473 3.221
AR, 18:00 1.437 5.264
DMO, 18:00 2.089 5.648
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 0.998 6.251
DMO, 06:00 1.874 6.563
AR, 12:00 0.258 4.854
DMO, 12:00 -0.945 6.472
AR, 18:00 2.332 9.983
DMO, 18:00 3.473 10.148
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of May 04, 2005 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
Increased resolution model runs
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Results of June 10, 2005 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Increased resolution model runs
Results of Aug. 09, 2005 – precipitation. Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Increased resolution model runs
Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast, May 04, 2005, June 10, 2005 August 09, 2005.
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 3.225 7.452
DMO, 06:00 3.779 7.862
AR, 12:00 0.461 7.298
DMO, 12:00 1.727 9.049
AR, 18:00 3.295 7.701
DMO, 18:00 5.165 8.427
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 2.970 8.503
DMO, 06:00 3.986 11.517
AR, 12:00 2.134 6.775
DMO, 12:00 2.413 6.953
AR, 18:00 3.972 11.681
DMO, 18:00 4.659 13.720
Output, hour bias RMSE
AR, 06:00 -0.186 3.324
DMO, 06:00 -1.190 5.858
AR, 12:00 -1.472 5.316
DMO, 12:00 -3.636 9.077
AR, 18:00 0.352 7.676
DMO, 18:00 -1.686 9.964
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Air temperature RMSE changes during period August 01, 2008 to August 21, 2008 (DMO and AR results shown).
Precipitation RMSE changes during period August 01, 2008 to August 21, 2008 (DMO and AR results shown).
Hydrological applications of COSMO model
Temperature forecast corrections, easier to develop, seem also to be more stable during a learning process (no sudden/drastic changes of coefficients over the entire period).
Method – even in this simple approach – is able to “detect” and correct not only any factor aside of the model, but also systematic errors in its results.
The change of COSMO model version (from 3.05 to reference version 4.0) has not significant (clearly visible) influence on time-evolvement of coefficients.
Precipitation seems to be well-posed as far as the predictors are concerned. Geographical coordinates, elevation, time of measurement and previous measured and forecasted values seem to be fairly set for the purpose.
Of course, artificial, but obvious constrain has always to be applied – corrected forecast value of precipitation must not be less than zero.
Additional problem with precipitation forecast correction - correction process is hardly able to “create” any amount of precipitation from “nothing”. If DMO forecast predicts no rain at a certain point, it’s not possible to obtain a non-zero (or significant amount of) precipitation using AR scheme.
Results are sensitive to data continuity of some kind – the more data available, the faster scheme converges and further changes of coefficients are smaller and smaller. If there was a significant lack of data, rapid changes of coefficients and statistic values was seen.
ConclusionsHydrological applications of COSMO model
Thank you for your attention.IMGW01-673 Warszawa, ul.: Podleśna 61tel.: (022) 56 94 134fax: (022) 56 94 356mobile: 0 503 122 [email protected]