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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 2015/02/09

詹姆士看天下 2015/02/09

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/02/09
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/1/30 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.35 399 397 297 6.62 537 478 335 10.16 967 919 461 4.04 273 256 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/2/6 (%) 5.55 (&) 4.35 6.62 % % 10.16 -1.64 -1.37 -0.45 0.02 0.23 0.26 0.47 1.01 1.04 1.54 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 9.1 4.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.7 6.1 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.3 0.9 0.5 -2.6-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 5 : Bloomberg 2015/2/6 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l 2 7%9% l 19.3 24.2 21.9 -3.9 7.2 2.7 2.8 3.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -3.6 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/2/6 119.12 $1233.92 1.957% $51.69 $1.1316
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12.1 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.6 -4.2 -4.5 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 7 : Bloomberg 2015/2/6 ==225=
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (12.1%) 1 (4.3%4.0%) (-4.5%)2 (-4.2%)PMI50IPO 2
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 221 (PMI)49.850.2 50 MSCI 2011 11PMI 50A MSCI25811 A MSCI - 0302 () - 4220 () 4202 () () 0404 () 2015/2/3 08 15
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2009(NBI)6 2013~2014 1 6% 150 70%(Shire)1 52NPS (Roche)10 Foundation Medicine (FDA)41 NBI7 (NBI) 2015/2/3 () 0465 () - 3926 () 3928 () 3929 () 8309 () 1
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12113% 4% 34% 1 16 201312 117.5%1 13% GDP6%2015 6% 12 16.313.5 0522 () 0548 () 2015/2/5
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/2/6()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/2/6 ()
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg GDP 2/9() 2Sentix 3.0 0.9 2014GDP 6.9% 6.9% 2/10() 12 -1.1% -2.6% 1 1.0% 1.5% 1 1.35 6973 2/11() 1 -0.4% -0.9% 12() -- 2 2/12() 1 0.3% 0.2% 1 -0.3% -0.3% 2/13() 2 98.1 98.1 2014GDP 0.8% 0.8% 2014GDP 1.1% 1.2%
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4ECBECB600 11 4050 OPEC
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) (40%) QE (2015/2/9)
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 125.7 11201994 1125.65.7 211 2
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 11PMI 5049.8284 0.5%19.5%20125 0.5 144.5 6000 31 2.25%1
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 56 546 80 4
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1ISM 53.5 54.5 55.1 1Markit 53.9 53.7 53.7 12 -3.4% -2.4% -1.7% 1ADP 21.3 22.3 25.3 1ISM 56.7 56.4 56.5 27.8 29 26.7 1 25.7 22.8 32.9 1 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 1Markit 51.0 51.0 51.0 12 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1Markit 50.9 51.0 51.0 12 3.4% 0.7% -0.4% 12 -0.7% -0.3% -0.3% : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1 49.7 49.8 49.8 1 49.8 50.2 50.1 1 53.7 -- 54.1 19.5% -- 20.0% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 2.25% 2.50% 2.50% 2014GDP 5.01% 4.90% 5.01% 1 49.8 -- 51.4 1 55.2 53.0 52.8 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.25% 2.25% 2.50% 12 -2.7% -2.6% -6.2% 1 91.1 93.0 93.6 : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1720.55 2.56 2.18 0.79 1.77 0.64 6.75 2055.47 3.03 0.52 1.16 6.41 -0.17 14.38 1205.46 3.44 1.67 2.74 6.55 0.06 7.96 373.31 1.71 10.47 11.35 14.90 8.98 14.83 252.02 2.38 9.36 13.60 17.07 9.16 11.28 225 17648.5 -0.15 2.62 4.55 19.42 1.13 22.03 4381.95 -1.87 -0.81 6.51 14.81 -0.21 21.91 3075.91 -4.19 -6.38 27.20 40.17 -4.91 50.45 MSCI 978.57 1.76 1.79 -0.92 -6.40 2.33 4.40 MSCI 472.92 0.98 2.46 3.51 -0.27 3.38 12.46 MSCI 301.8 5.51 -0.83 -13.35 -22.31 1.76 -26.94 MSCI 2619.01 2.49 -2.26 -13.50 -22.30 -3.98 -10.63 MSCI 282.54 4.21 2.96 -4.20 -11.14 4.35 -7.48 Bloomberg 122.63 -1.64 0.05 2.61 3.66 1.22 5.74 Bloomberg 133.46 0.02 0.62 1.64 3.46 0.86 7.64 Bloomberg 138.92 -1.37 0.39 2.63 3.12 1.61 7.41 Bloomberg 146.50 1.04 1.11 -2.59 -3.45 0.12 -0.55 Bloomberg 151.88 1.01 2.20 -1.47 -0.93 1.36 2.24 Bloomberg 160.85 0.47 1.20 1.45 2.39 1.24 5.95 ETF 46.93 1.54 -0.32 -2.18 -2.57 0.09 1.58 Bloomberg 142.14 0.26 1.75 -1.21 -0.01 0.93 6.32 Bloomberg 126.40 0.23 2.04 -0.58 0.64 1.59 5.99 Bloomberg 151.45 -0.45 2.17 3.76 7.11 2.69 15.52 Bloomberg 2015/2/6
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 238.54 6.05 4.86 -9.49 -19.05 0.31 -8.62 MSCI 229.12 3.52 3.79 1.03 -7.30 2.72 -2.61 MSCI 101.36 3.98 1.83 -1.20 0.37 -1.36 2.84 MSCI 189.35 2.99 3.67 6.69 7.41 1.69 8.50 MSCI 204.19 0.90 2.40 3.02 6.13 2.14 12.37 MSCI 200.13 2.48 2.77 0.21 1.91 0.41 3.06 MSCI 139.85 2.27 -0.31 1.56 6.25 -1.01 15.88 MSCI 71.14 3.07 5.53 2.02 2.20 4.07 4.66 MSCI 121.06 -2.65 0.02 0.02 3.31 -1.63 9.52 MSCI 205.33 0.46 0.73 3.85 11.49 2.72 17.93 NBI 3307.47 -1.71 0.90 8.92 25.63 4.09 28.57 AMEX 192.86 -4.44 3.52 17.22 -20.46 17.58 -11.76 REITs FTSE 14914.65 -1.40 0.06 8.38 14.75 4.68 28.85 REITs FTSE 1824.79 -1.58 -0.04 9.48 16.35 5.11 30.45 REITs FTSE 1466.01 2.83 14.46 23.06 29.34 16.98 43.07 REITs FTSE 1588.20 1.92 1.31 7.51 4.94 4.42 20.70 (/) 1233.92 -3.88 1.27 8.06 -5.51 4.14 -1.93 (/) 16.73 -3.04 1.14 8.48 -16.54 6.46 -16.25 (/) 5650.00 2.82 -8.06 -15.17 -18.94 -10.32 -20.75 (/) 57.80 9.08 13.11 -30.24 -44.74 0.82 -46.08 (/) 51.69 7.15 7.84 -33.65 -46.67 -2.97 -47.17 CRB 224.85 2.75 -0.32 -16.92 -23.11 -2.22 -22.40 919.27 2.09 -5.58 -3.59 -8.60 -4.70 -12.30 : Bloomberg 2015/2/
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1316 0.22 -4.83 -8.56 -15.45 -6.46 -16.73 119.12 -1.39 -0.61 -3.28 -14.29 0.55 -14.28 1.5243 1.22 0.61 -3.72 -9.55 -2.14 -6.61 0.9268 -0.72 9.00 5.02 -2.07 7.28 -2.78 1.2527 1.61 -5.52 -8.81 -12.86 -7.23 -11.63 0.7796 0.44 -3.56 -8.91 -16.66 -4.64 -12.98 1089.78 0.36 0.81 -0.55 -5.15 0.11 -0.99 31.4490 0.25 1.72 -2.77 -4.52 0.66 -3.62 6.2446 0.10 -0.50 -2.11 -1.30 -0.63 -2.92 12621.00 0.40 0.21 -3.74 -6.89 -1.85 -3.38 61.7025 0.27 3.03 -0.47 -0.32 2.17 1.11 32.6530 0.33 0.63 0.57 -1.45 0.79 0.44 1.3530 0.09 -1.46 -4.21 -7.72 -2.03 -6.25 3.5470 2.27 0.27 -5.93 -9.82 -1.40 -6.28 44.1800 -0.15 1.70 1.86 -0.94 1.22 2.26 11.5039 1.23 1.82 -2.13 -6.97 0.58 -4.07 2.4746 -1.35 -6.15 -8.53 -12.77 -5.64 -10.70 66.8570 3.76 -5.63 -30.29 -45.90 -9.16 -48.15 3.6731 0.90 -1.12 -7.15 -14.52 -3.53 -16.32 270.40 1.76 -0.56 -7.50 -12.76 -3.24 -16.38 3.9029 0.68 -3.07 -8.36 -14.97 -5.15 -15.77 2.7819 -3.69 -2.92 -7.62 -18.29 -4.47 -14.38 14.8484 0.86 0.31 -8.16 -10.86 -0.65 -10.60 8.6594 -0.20 -1.24 -1.80 -4.51 -2.25 -9.03 : Bloomberg 2015/2/6
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.5287 30.7 2.6 -57.4 -74.1 -22.3 -114.0 10 1.9567 31.6 1.7 -42.9 -51.4 -21.5 -74.4 0.3390 6.1 4.6 -13.1 -18.2 1.0 -27.8 0.3750 7.3 -7.1 -45.3 -72.6 -16.6 -132.1 0.3750 7.3 -7.1 -45.3 -72.6 -16.6 -132.1 0.6140 7.8 -11.7 -57.5 -90.7 -21.2 -166.8 1.5780 -1.6 -28.6 -80.4 -123.1 -31.2 -218.2 1.4890 6.6 -15.5 -67.0 -109.7 -12.2 -216.8 2.4140 -22.6 -16.4 -81.8 -137.7 -27.3 -255.3 2.2110 23.1 -16.6 -44.9 -122.7 -30.7 -226.8 7.6200 52.0 -9.0 -114.0 -193.0 -40.0 -253.0 12.3931 -83.0 -146.3 230.7 255.2 -61.4 416.6 3.0000 21.0 -56.0 -86.0 -218.0 -60.0 -295.0 7.4490 32.3 -32.0 -52.5 -86.7 -52.0 -122.6 12.4610 50.6 23.0 -22.0 42.8 9.7 158.5 5.6160 37.6 -15.1 -31.6 -19.5 -22.8 -90.8 2.2670 2.7 -28.8 -37.5 -82.8 -33.8 -127.3 7.1560 -1.2 -78.6 -84.7 -106.6 -64.0 -191.5 7.7040 1.2 -19.6 -48.6 -94.2 -15.3 -101.4 9 2.5210 0.4 10.4 -42.1 -93.7 -8.0 -140.5 : Bloomberg 2015/2/6
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 103027
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.