Ëàòâèÿ

Êîíñòàíòèí Ñòûðèí (ÐÝØ)

25 íîÿáðÿ 2015 ã.

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Blanchard, O.-J., M. Gri�ths, and B. Gruss, �Boom, Bust,

Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis,� Brookings Papers on

Economic Activity, Fall 2013

Aslund, A., and V. Dombrovskis, How Latvia Came through the

Financial Crisis, Peterson Institute for International Economics,

2011

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Áóì, ïàäåíèå, âîññòàíîâëåíèå

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Íîðìà çàãðóçêè ïðîèçâîäñòâåííûõìîùíîñòåé

4050

6070

80ca

putil

1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date

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Íîðìà áåçðàáîòèöû

05

1015

20ur

ate

1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

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Èíôëÿöèÿ

-10

010

2030

40in

flatio

n12

1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

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Îïòèìèçì ïîòðåáèòåëåé èïðîèçâîäèòåëåé

-60

-40

-20

020

1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

indconfidence consconfidence7 / 35

Êðåäèòíûé áóì â íóëåâûå

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Ïîòðåáèòåëüñêèé êðåäèò

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

cons

cred

it

2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1date

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Ñ÷åò òåêóùèõ îïåðàöèé êàê äîëÿ ÂÂÏ

-30

-20

-10

010

ca2g

dp10

0

2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date

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Ìàññèâíûé ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà â íóëåâûå

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Çîëîòîâàëþòíûå ðåçåðâû

020

0040

0060

00fx

rese

rves

1990m1 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

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Âíåøíèé äîëã (ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé +÷àñòíûé)

2030

4050

60ex

tdeb

t2gd

psa1

00

2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date

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Íèçêèå ïðîöåíòíûå ñòàâêè â íóëåâûå

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Äîõîäíîñòü ïÿòèëåòíèõ ãîñîáëèãàöèé

02

46

810

tbon

d5yr

2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

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Ðîñò çàðïëàò è öåí íà íåäâèæèìîñòüñóùåñòâåííî îïåðåæàë èíôëÿöèþ

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Öåíû íà íåäâèæèìîñòü

100

120

140

160

180

200

phou

se

2005q3 2008q1 2010q3 2013q1 2015q3date

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Ðîñò öåí è èçäåðæåê ïðîèçâîäñòâà

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Äåøåâûé êðåäèò ñòèìóëèðîâàëïîòðåáëåíèå

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Îòíîñèòåëüíî íåáîëüøàÿ ÷àñòü ïðèòîêàêàïèòàëà íàïðàâëÿëàñü íà

ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå ÏÈÈ

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Ïàäåíèå ÂÂÏ è åãî êîìïîíåíò âî âðåìÿêðèçèñà

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Ðîñò ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê âî âðåìÿêðèçèñà

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Ìàññèâíàÿ ôèñêàëüíàÿ êîíñîëèäàöèÿïðîâåäåíà â ñæàòûå ñðîêè

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Ñíèæåíèå èçäåðæåê è ðîñòïðîèçâîäèòåëüíîñòè âñëåäñòâèå

àíòèêðèçèñíûõ ìåð â ýêîíîìèêå â öåëîì

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Ñíèæåíèå èçäåðæåê è ðîñòïðîèçâîäèòåëüíîñòè âñëåäñòâèå

àíòèêðèçèñíûõ ìåð â îáðàáàòûâàþùåéïðîìûøëåííîñòè

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Êîòèðîâêè êðåäèòíûõ äåôîëüíûõ ñâîïîâ(CDS) îòðàæàþò îöåíêó ðèñêà äåôîëòà

èíâåñòîðàìè

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Ïðîöåíòíûå ñòàâêè äåíåæíîãî ðûíêàâñêîðå âåðíóëèñü ê íîðìàëüíûì óðîâíÿì

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Êàê ðàáîòàë ïëàí âíåøíåé ïîìîùè

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Áåçðàáîòèöà ïðîäîëæàëà ðàñòè äî 2010ã.

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Ñîêðàùåíèå èçäåðæåê ñòèìóëèðîâàëîýêñïîðò

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ÂÂÏ âîçîáíîâèë ðîñò óæå â 2010 ã.

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Öåíû è èçäåðæêè äî è ïîñëå êðèçèñà

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Ðîñò ÂÂÏ è åãî ñîñòàâëÿþùèõ âî âðåìÿâîññòàíîâëåíèÿ

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Ñëèøêîì äîðîãàÿ öåíà?

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Ñëèøêîì äîðîãàÿ öåíà?

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