15
Opportunities in the US 16896 24 th April 2013 This communication is for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Dan Harlow Fund Manager AXA Framlington American Growth Fund

16896 - axa fram american growth - gbp - net (to mar 13) - citiwire

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

 

Citation preview

Page 1: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

Opportunities in the US

16896

24th April 2013

This communication is for professional advisers only and must not be relied

upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.

Dan Harlow

Fund Manager

AXA Framlington American Growth Fund

Page 2: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

US Investment Team

1 16896

The Investment Team Global sector specialists

Stephen Kelly

Lead Fund Manager

21 years’ experience managing US equities

Joined AXA Framlington and started managing

American Growth fund in March 1997

Previously on US Desk at Capel Cure Myers

BSc (Hons) Economics from Exeter University

Consumers

Isabel

Pajot

24 yrs’ experience

Commodities

Olivier Eugène

13 yrs’ experience

Industrials

Mark Hargraves

17 yrs’ experience

Healthcare

Gemma Game 11 yrs’ experience

Technology

Jeremy

Gleeson

15 yrs’ experience

Auto/Telecom/Utilities

Bruno Grandsard

11 yrs’ experience

Financials

Susan Sternglass Noble

26 yrs’ experience

Source: AXA IM as at 31/12/2012. Years relate to investment experience.

Dan Harlow

Fund Manager

Dan moved onto the US equity team in

November 2011, having previously co-managed

the UK small and mid cap mandates upon

joining AXA Framlington in February 2010

Previously with Montanaro Asset Management

for nine years as Head of UK fund management

BA (Hons) History and MSc International

Relations both from Southampton University

Page 3: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

Growth cycle

Growth Screening

A systematic screening of the universe will help us identify strong growth candidates

“Blue Sky” Emerging Mainstream

Potential

opportunities

Executing on

opportunity

Mature Sales Growth

Time

Source: AXA IM. For illustration purposes only

2 16896

Page 4: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

A data-point we pay close attention to: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Banks tightening C&I loans to large firms (%) vs Real GDP (Y/Y) – lagged three quarters

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Tig

hte

nin

g -

in

vert

ed

R

eal G

DP

(Y/Y

)

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

Q2-9

2

Q2-9

3

Q2-9

5

Q2-9

4

Q2-9

6

Q2-9

7

Q2-9

9

Q2-9

8

Q2-0

0

Q2-0

1

Q2-0

2

Q2-0

3

Q2-0

4

Q2-0

5

Q2-0

6

Q2-0

7

Q2-0

8

Q2-0

9

Q2-1

0

Q2-1

1

Q2-1

2

Q2-9

1

Q2-9

0

Recession

Real GDP Y/Y

Banks tightening C&I loans to large firms (%) (left)

Source: Citi Research as at 21/12/2012.

3 16896

Page 5: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

Architecture Billing Index – Best reading since November 2007

Source: AIA as at 19/02/2013

4 16896

Page 6: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

North Dakota: The Economic Miracle State

Source: N.D. Department of Mineral Resources as at 17/12/2012.

5 16896

Page 7: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

Natural gas pricing giving us a competitive advantage

Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Natural gas price in $US/MMBtu as at 07/09/2012.

6 16896

Page 8: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

Re-made in the USA: Manufacturing renaissance

General Electric Buck Knives

Caterpillar Inc. Sleek Audio

Whirlpool Corp.

Otis Elevator

Ford

Source: AXA IM as at at December 2012.

7 16896

Page 9: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

AXA Framlington American Growth Fund as at 31 March 2013

Source: AXA IM as at 31/03/2013 in GBP. Comparative benchmark = Russell 1000 Growth Index. *Note: the S&P 500 is not the current

benchmark of the Fund and is only used for illustrative purpose.

Sector – Fund against comparative benchmark Top ten holdings Fund %

Comparative

Benchmark %

Apple Inc. 4.2 5.4

Google Inc. Cl A 3.5 2.7

QUALCOMM Inc. 2.1 1.5

International Business Machines Corp. 1.9 3.0

Amazon.com Inc. 1.8 1.3

salesforce.com inc. 1.6 0.3

Cerner Corp. 1.6 0.2

Celgene Corp. 1.6 0.7

Edwards Lifesciences Corp. 1.6 0.1

ITC Holdings Corp. 1.6 0.1

TOTAL 21.4 15.2

Fund size (£m) 637.4

Number of holdings 77 % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

ConsumerDiscretionary

ConsumerStaples

Energy

FinancialServices

Health Care

Industrials

Materials

Technology

Telecoms

Utilities

AXA FramlingtonAmerican Growth

Russell 1000 Growth

S&P 500*

8 16896

Page 10: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

AXA Framlington American Growth Fund - Current active positions

Top ten underweight Top ten overweight

Source: AXA IM as at 31/03/2013. Comparative benchmark: Russell 1000 Growth.

Name Sub-sector Fund

Comparative

benchmark

ITC Holdings Corp. Electric Utilities 1.6 0.1

Quanta Services Inc. Construction & Engineering 1.5 0.0

Panera Bread Co. Cl AHotels, Restaurants &

Leisure1.5 0.1

Polaris Industries Inc.Leisure Equipment &

Products1.5 0.1

Tractor Supply Co. Specialty Retail 1.5 0.1

Edwards Lifesciences Corp.Health Care Equipment &

Supplies1.6 0.1

TransDigm Group Inc. Aerospace & Defense 1.5 0.1

National Oilwell Varco Inc.Energy Equipment &

Services1.5 0.1

Equinix Inc. Internet Software & Services 1.6 0.1

Kansas City Southern Road & Rail 1.5 0.1

Name Sub-sector Fund

Comparative

benchmark

Microsoft Corp. Software 0.0 2.8

Coca-Cola Co. Beverages 0.0 2.0

Philip Morris International

Inc.Tobacco 0.0 1.9

Verizon Communications

Inc.

Diversified

Telecommunication Services0.0 1.8

PepsiCo Inc. Beverages 0.0 1.6

Oracle Corp. Software 0.0 1.6

Home Depot Inc. Specialty Retail 0.0 1.4

McDonald's Corp.Hotels, Restaurants &

Leisure0.0 1.3

Schlumberger Ltd.Energy Equipment &

Services0.0 1.3

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Food & Staples Retailing 0.0 1.3

9 16896

Page 11: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

AXA Framlington American Growth Fund performance

Source: Graph – AXA IM, Lipper as at 31/03/2013, performance calculated net of fees, bid to bid, in GBP. Table: Lipper, Midday NAV,

Bid to Bid Net Income TR, Net Fees in GBP as at 31/03/2013. NB: Past performance is not a guide to future returns. *Fund launched

31/12/1992.

Net performance Since Launch*

Cumulative performance (net) 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs

AXA Framlington American Growth in GBP 7.2 36.4 75.8 117.8

IMA North America 17.9 33.0 61.8 101.9

Quartile (vs IMA North America) 4 2 1 2

10 16896

Page 12: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

1st Sept 2012 – 28th Feb 2013:

Russell 1000 Growth underperforms Russell 1000 Value by 6.4%

Worst 6 month relative performance since 1H 2006

Source: Bloomberg as at 28/02/2013.

11 16896

Page 13: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

S&P 500 Q1 2013 Sub-Sector Performance

4.2 4.2

8.2

9.6 10.0 10.1

10.9

11.8 11.8

13.8

15.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Source: S&P as at 31/03/2013.

12 16896

Page 14: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

US sector valuations

LHS source: Wells Fargo Securities. As at 28/3/13.

RHS source J.P.Morgan and DataStream. As at 04/04/13 :

Tech Valuations - Relative Price / 10-yr EPS Food Valuations – Packaged Food NTM P/E

13 16896

Page 15: 16896  - axa fram american growth - gbp - net  (to mar 13) - citiwire

Important information

This communication is intended for Investment Professional use only and should not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted

accordingly. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited.

This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any units in the Fund. Information relating to investments is based on research and analysis

undertaken or procured by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited for its own purposes and may have been made available to other members of the AXA

Investment Managers Group of Companies which, in turn, may have acted on it. Whilst every care is taken over these comments, no responsibility is accepted

for errors and omissions that may be contained therein. It is therefore not to be taken as a recommendation to enter into any investment transactions.

This communication should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for any AXA service or product and is provided to

you for information purposes only. The views expressed do not constitute investment advice and do not necessarily represent the views of any company within

the AXA Investment Managers Group and may be subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties),

express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein.

Information relating to investments may have been based on research and analysis undertaken or procured by AXA Framlington for its own purposes and may

have been made available to other expertises within the AXA Investment Managers Group, who in turn may have acted upon it. Information in this document may

be updated from time to time and may vary from previous or future published versions of this document.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the

amount originally invested. Changes in exchange rates will affect the value of investments made overseas. Investments in newer markets and smaller

companies offer the possibility of higher returns but may also involve a higher degree of risk. An initial charge is usually made when you purchase units. Your

investment should be for the medium to long term i.e. typically 5-10 years.

AXA Framlington is an expertise of AXA Investment Managers UK Limited. Issued by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited which is authorised and regulated by

the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068 Registered Office: 7 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7NX. Telephone calls may

be recorded for quality assurance purposes. 16896 04/2013

14 16896