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稅改傳進展 美股黑翻紅 2017/11/20 先鋒週報

20171120先鋒週報 稅改傳進展 美股黑翻紅

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  • 2017 / 11 / 2 0

  • 0.52 0.46

    0.37 0.36 0.35 0.24 0.19

    0.10 0.04

    (0.23)

    (1)

    0

    1

    (5.5)(4.9)

    (0.7)

    (9)

    (7)

    (5)

    (3)

    (1)

    1

    3

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    (%)

    (bp)

    2.344

    0.036

    0.361

    1

  • (%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

    3.01 263 275 236

    6.21 376 376 335

    4.68 254 249 238

    3.77 158 161 155

    %

    %

    6.21

    3.01

    3.77

    4.68

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    2

  • 1.6

    0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3

    (0.2)(0.4)

    (1.0)

    0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2

    (0.1) (0.1)

    (0.8)(1.0) (1.1)

    (3.5)(4)

    (3)

    (2)

    (1)

    0

    1

    2

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    MSCI MSCI

    (%)

    3

  • : Bloomberg 2017/11/19 ==225=

    (%)

    2.6

    1.8 1.7 1.2

    0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1

    (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7)(1.0) (1.1) (1.1) (1.2) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4)

    (2.1) (2.1)(2.5)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    4

  • (2.6%)

    (1.8%)

    3.45%

    (-2.1%)GDP1.8%100%

    Rosneft Oil

    (-2.5%)

    2016Murat Cetinkaya

    5

  • Bloomberg

    6

  • ()Bloomberg : 2017/11/19 ()

    7

  • ()Bloomberg : 2017/11/19 ()

    8

  • 1.5

    (0.3)(0.7)

    (0.1)

    2.6

    1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

    (0.3)(0.8)

    (1.3)

    (4)

    (2)

    0

    2

    4

    CR

    B

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    (%)

    $1.18

    112.1

    93.66$56.55

    $1294.2

    9

    $65.02

  • : Bloomberg

    10

    11/13 () PPI 10 3.4% 3.1% 3.0%

    11/14 ()

    GDP () 3 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

    WDA 9 3.3% 3.3% 3.8%

    GDP () 3 0.8% 0.6% 0.6%

    CPI () 10 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

    CPI 10 3.0% 3.2% 3.0%

    10 6.2% 6.3% 6.6%

    10 10.0% 10.4% 10.3%

    11/15 ()

    CPI 10 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%

    10 0.2% 0.0% 1.6%

    CPI () 10 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

    GDP () 3 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%

    () 9 -1.0% - -1.1%

    11/16 () 10 0.9% 0.4% 0.3%

    11 22.7 24.0 27.9

    11/17 () 10 1,188k 1,127k

  • 11/20 () 10 0.6% -0.2%

    PPI 10 2.5% 3.1%

    11/21 ()() 10 5.4m 5.39m

    () -0.4% 0.1%

    11/22 ()

    11 - 249k

    MBA 11 - 3.1%

    10 - 1.1%

    11 98.2 97.8

    EIA() 1117 - 185.4

    11/23 ()

    MarkitPMI 11 60.3 60.6

    MarkitPMI 11 - 56.1

    MarkitPMI 11 58.2 58.5

    GDP 1.5% 1.5%

    GDP() 0.8% 0.8%

    11/24 () MarkitPMI 11 55.0 54.6

    PMI 11 52.8

    : Bloomberg

    11

  • 12

    LowesSalesforce.com

    1511/16473500

    73.6%

    11/15~21(NAFTA)

    11/21(0.9%)

    11/23(6.75%)

    11/24(5%)

  • 13

  • FedECBQE

    OPEC

    14

  • 15

  • (%)

    MSCI 2033.18 -0.35 -0.12 5.32 7.30 16.10 19.79

    2578.85 -0.13 0.14 6.32 8.28 15.19 18.19

    1492.82 1.19 -1.09 9.94 9.18 10.00 13.47

    383.80 -1.26 -1.62 2.57 -1.97 6.19 13.09

    287.66 -1.19 -1.33 2.61 0.07 11.80 18.10

    225 22396.80 -1.25 3.81 14.41 13.70 16.54 23.98

    6731.26 -0.71 -2.52 3.72 13.72 27.89 40.43

    3382.91 -1.45 0.13 3.49 9.46 9.00 5.95

    MSCI 1136.45 0.71 1.50 7.26 14.14 31.80 34.57

    MSCI 582.52 0.53 2.86 9.67 17.00 39.04 39.68

    MSCI 329.43 -1.34 -1.16 4.16 5.49 10.93 24.24

    MSCI 2775.74 0.74 -5.23 -0.78 10.24 18.59 22.45

    MSCI 273.58 1.63 0.56 2.48 3.93 11.77 21.44

    Bloomberg 126.36 0.24 -0.16 -0.42 0.45 2.28 1.81

    Bloomberg 140.37 0.04 0.24 0.71 1.53 2.08 2.59

    Bloomberg 151.51 0.35 -0.31 0.52 2.09 5.45 5.82

    Bloomberg 174.43 0.19 -0.53 1.32 3.44 8.93 11.32

    Bloomberg 181.87 0.10 -0.66 1.22 2.46 7.12 9.76

    Bloomberg 182.98 -0.23 -0.17 1.05 2.66 5.68 7.72

    ETF 51.93 0.37 0.91 3.57 6.44 13.76 14.31

    Bloomberg 168.86 0.52 -0.33 1.23 2.98 8.56 9.65

    Bloomberg 131.60 0.36 -0.64 -0.28 2.50 7.40 6.10

    Bloomberg 173.20 0.46 -0.55 0.59 3.02 8.23 7.61

    Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    16

  • (%) ()

    MSCI 208.88 -3.47 -0.23 9.04 1.90 -4.62 2.81

    MSCI 267.28 -1.04 0.05 7.30 12.53 20.46 24.97

    MSCI 121.08 -0.08 -1.72 4.04 9.42 14.03 19.84

    MSCI 228.57 0.60 1.38 5.82 6.01 16.36 18.79

    MSCI 229.02 0.36 0.47 0.22 -0.13 10.35 13.86

    MSCI 248.90 -1.12 -2.07 4.97 7.11 17.14 19.66

    MSCI 220.59 -0.10 4.20 12.45 16.73 36.82 38.58

    MSCI 67.37 0.53 -2.82 -3.17 -3.33 -3.11 4.30

    MSCI 131.23 -0.78 -0.40 -0.40 4.53 14.15 20.56

    MSCI 222.59 0.24 -3.32 2.96 4.16 15.43 15.49

    NBI 3258.19 -0.38 -6.17 2.41 7.20 17.51 9.39

    AMEX 187.89 0.45 -4.88 -4.36 -4.68 3.06 3.18

    REITs FTSE 17384.97 -0.58 1.89 4.97 6.46 9.24 15.89

    REITs FTSE 2008.15 2.36 0.04 4.30 6.37 4.31 11.52

    REITs FTSE 1363.93 0.39 1.80 2.37 -0.95 3.24 10.85

    REITs FTSE 1769.80 -0.01 1.10 -1.59 2.22 5.79 10.10

    (/) 1294.20 1.47 0.89 0.62 2.86 12.11 6.95

    (/) 17.31 2.53 0.93 1.02 0.12 7.91 3.58

    (/) 6777.00 -0.13 -3.56 4.42 20.80 22.43 23.32

    (/) 62.72 -1.26 8.36 18.70 16.73 10.14 33.55

    (/) 56.55 -0.33 9.99 16.70 12.48 5.38 23.90

    CRB 190.39 -0.66 3.41 7.26 2.87 -1.10 3.96

    813.21 -0.48 0.46 1.42 -3.50 -3.30 -3.14

    Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    17

  • (%)

    1.1790 1.07 -0.39 -0.65 4.46 11.61 10.42

    112.10 1.26 1.36 -2.70 -0.63 4.43 -1.05

    1.3215 0.14 0.07 2.32 1.53 6.96 5.64

    0.9891 0.70 -0.41 -2.67 -1.51 3.11 2.07

    1.2763 -0.64 -1.27 -1.81 5.57 5.09 4.91

    0.7564 -1.27 -3.35 -4.84 1.04 4.81 2.52

    1097.55 1.74 2.80 3.48 1.64 9.56 7.82

    30.0840 0.29 0.55 0.84 -0.16 7.45 6.28

    6.6268 0.21 -0.22 0.46 3.78 4.67 3.88

    13531.00 0.09 -0.10 -1.34 -1.70 -0.44 -0.93

    65.0150 0.23 -0.04 -1.42 -0.79 4.40 4.77

    32.8460 0.82 1.13 1.31 4.55 9.19 8.26

    1.3561 0.30 0.32 0.29 2.15 6.63 4.95

    4.1610 0.73 1.61 3.10 3.52 7.89 6.29

    50.9530 0.59 1.04 0.94 -2.36 -2.65 -2.21

    13.9981 2.64 -2.77 -6.12 -5.77 -2.09 1.54

    3.8760 -0.30 -4.96 -9.48 -7.86 -8.78 -12.98

    59.0265 0.22 -2.96 -0.17 -4.41 3.87 7.98

    3.5919 0.85 -0.31 0.47 3.62 16.15 15.56

    264.56 0.95 -1.69 -3.40 3.27 10.78 9.44

    3.9296 1.66 -1.18 -1.79 2.71 9.14 7.40

    3.2593 0.74 -3.03 -2.58 -3.69 -0.13 4.96

    18.9173 0.97 0.27 -6.81 -1.49 9.41 7.94

    17.4824 0.08 -0.85 -0.77 -10.72 -9.17 -11.47

    Bloomberg 2017/11/19

    18

  • (%) () (bp)

    30 2.7790 -10.1 -11.8 0.3 -11.8 -28.6 -25.1

    10 2.3435 -5.5 -4.1 15.0 10.9 -10.1 -1.1

    0.0360 -0.7 -3.9 0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4

    0.3610 -4.9 -0.4 -6.5 -1.7 15.3 8.2

    0.7060 -7.3 -7.1 -1.6 -12.9 2.0 -3.9

    1.8360 -1.0 -16.4 -19.3 -31.9 2.1 -25.8

    1.5550 -2.1 0.8 11.6 -0.9 17.1 -3.8

    1.9830 -7.6 -33.8 -79.2 -122.8 -178.1 -175.9

    3.4130 3.9 12.5 5.0 9.4 -22.0 -24.8

    12.5500 27.0 121.0 178.0 185.0 116.0 151.0

    7.7168 -0.6 6.2 -7.6 -6.3 -74.3 -108.4

    2.2600 -1.0 -25.0 -84.0 -81.0 -90.0 -128.0

    9.3400 -1.7 59.9 82.9 66.1 41.6 34.3

    10.1870 -0.5 46.7 -0.1 17.5 -121.4 -186.3

    7.2810 1.8 10.7 42.2 13.8 -15.5 20.2

    2.5700 0.0 17.0 25.3 32.3 47.8 52.0

    6.6300 -3.2 -2.3 -26.1 -41.9 -134.3 -120.0

    * 7.0470 9.0 28.7 53.4 33.7 53.2 61.8

    2.3570 1.5 12.2 -3.8 -34.1 -29.2 -20.9

    : Bloomberg 2017/11/19 *

    19

  • 2008

    2014

    -26.69% -5.61%

    -36.09% -7.28%

    -20.81% --

    -18.82% -5.58%

    -21.11% -12.76%

    -9.52% -5.56%

    Bloomberg() 2017/11/19

    %

    20

  • 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1

    (04)3700-7988 360171

    (07)972-1188 39

    21